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UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Hi Everyone,

I'll let Nation do his thing as only Nation can breaking it down for the pre-game, but just wanted to start the thread. UNCW is an 18.5 point underdog on the road in this one. And, Ole Miss won their opener against Jackson State by 35.

I don't advocate gambling. but if you're inclined to do so, I'd go with UNCW here against the spread. UNCW is an emerging program without question. Siddle has turned this program upside down with his frenetic pace and the players ( that are available) have bought in here. There hopefully will be enough guys available to rotate in now that Ty is back (that really hurt UNCW against ECU and not having Shy available also hurt big too-starting back court because they couldn't keep scoring when up big on the road). UNCW won't have Shy again for at least 1 more game, but do have Ty back which is huge.

I'm hoping for another entertaining tilt here and I have faith that UNCW will impose their fast-paced style during a lot of the game. This is a process, but I see this process back to the top of the CAA progressing far faster than expected with Prigden available and the overall willingness of a special group of guys to accept this coaching and style of coaching. The play of UNCW bigs will be important in this game. And, of course, overall pace of play. Don't be shocked if this group is competitive here regardless of odds-makers predictions. This group competes to the end.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2020 11:44 PM by billthebighawksfan.)
12-11-2020 11:40 PM
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
I just want to also commend the team for doing so well in the classroom! That is huge guys...huge! I turned down a half grant myself when I was coming along because I knew that I couldn't do both well. Congrats guys because academics has to be the main focus and you are proving that you can do both! Great job collectively guys!
12-12-2020 12:41 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Online
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Ole Miss played their first game of the season two nights ago (Thursday), defeating Jackson State 80-45. Senior guard Devontae Shuler led the way with 23 points on 9-10 shooting (5-5 from 3).

The Rebels were able to spread the minutes around in the blowout win. No one played more than 23 minutes, and 10 players finished with 13+ minutes. 14 players in total saw the court. So despite the quick turnaround they will be well rested for this one.


Three Man Weave has Ole Miss as their 40th best team in the country, and finishing 8th in the 14-team SEC this season. Here's their write-up:

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/miss...21-preview

#40 Mississippi 2020-21 Preview
July 27, 2020

Key Returners: Devontae Shuler, KJ Buffen, Khadim Sy, Luis Rodriguez, Austin Crowley
Key Losses: Breein Tyree, Blake Hinson
Key Newcomers: Romello White (Arizona State), Jarkell Joiner (Cal State Bakersfield), Dimencio Vaughn (Rider), Matthew Murrell, Shon Robinson (Redshirt)

*** As of this preview date, Robert Allen (Samford transfer) has not received a waiver to play immediately

Lineup:

[Image: image-asset.png?format=1500w]

Outlook: Kermit Davis and the Runnin’ Rebels head into year three of the former Middle Tennessee coach’s regime, hoping to forget a disappointing 2019-20 season in which they finished 102nd in KenPom, the second worst program mark since 2007. The road was particularly brutal for Ole Miss, as the Rebs went just 1-10 in hostile environments, driving their 15-17 overall record. 2020-21 promises to be a bounce back campaign with just two significant players leaving school. Davis brings in a trio of intriguing transfers and also adds the highest ranked recruit in school history.

This Hoop Lens split is quite concerning:

[Image: Tyree+Hoop+Lens.PNG?format=1000w]

But I’m going to propose a narrative that Breein Tyree’s graduation could actually be a blessing in disguise. Though the electric lead guard was Ole Miss’s best player last season, his tendency to force tough shots and dominate the ball were key factors in the Rebels’ 13th ranked SEC offense. Tyree led the conference in percentage of team shots taken, not a good fact when considering the other talent on Davis’s roster and the team’s overall struggles. Oftentimes having such a ball dominant presence can take others out of the game, bringing down the team’s efficiency as a whole.

Tyree’s departure means more opportunity for Devontae Shuler, a 6’2” guard dripping with potential. Shuler can score in bunches, run point, and create his own shot off the bounce – he’ll have free reign within Davis’s 4-out motion offense, though hopefully won’t be as ball needy as Tyree was.

[Image: Shuler+drive+.gif?format=1500w]

Shot quality was a major issue for the Rebels last season, as they settled for far too many mid-range jumpers. Given Shuler’s excellence off the ball in spot-up situations, it may behoove the Rebs to have Cal State Bakersfield transfer Jarkel Joiner to see a lot of run at point, setting Shuler and the overall team up for success and high offensive efficiency. Joiner led the WAC in scoring during league play two years ago and was a First Team All-WAC selection as a sophomore. Like Tyree last year, Joiner worked out of isolation often at CSUB and was counted on to score. At Ole Miss, Joiner will play a more complementary role, either as an instant offense option off the pine or “Robin” to Shuler’s “Batman” in the starting five. Accepting a lesser role may be a challenge for the athletically gifted Joiner, but Davis has already had him in the program for a year so hopefully the shift in expectations goes smoothly.

Ole Miss is crazy deep this season, especially on the wing. Top 40 recruit Matthew Murrell, the highest rated recruit in school history, will fight for starting minutes at the 2-spot on day one. Murrell is quick, athletic, and crafty with a good shooting touch. He’ll likely play off the ball in lineups with Shuler, forcing the latter to put on his point guard hat. Also in the mix for starting time is junior Luis Rodriguez, who started five games for the Rebels last year before going down with a season-ending injury. Rodriguez is an athletic slasher, a versatile wing who contributes in every area on the floor. Former 4-star recruit Austin Crowley could be in for a nice sophomore leap if he can beat out his competition for minutes. Like Rodriguez, Crowley is a long wing who can impact the game on both ends of the floor.

Rider grad transfer Dimencio Vaughn should see the lion’s share of minutes at the 3, especially with the departure of junior Blake Hinson, but he can play multiple spots on the court. Vaughn was a unanimous First Team All-MAAC selection last season after ranking 2nd in the league in steal rate and shooting 42% from deep in conference play. Though the level in conference is a significant jump, Vaughn’s versatility should translate in some form – he can play three positions and brings value as a tenacious defender and deadly spot-up shooter.

Kermit has plenty of options in the frontcourt as well. Given his love for 4-out and 5-out basketball, we’ll likely see lineups with guys like Vaughn at the nominal PF spot. Junior KJ Buffen started every game at the 4 last season, proving to be a reliable rebounder and defender with his length. While not a shooting threat, Buffen’s quickness on the perimeter allows him to blow by slower footed forwards to the cup.

If Buffen doesn’t start, it means Davis has opted to go with two true bigs, something he hasn’t really done during his head coaching career. However, Davis has never really had two big men as talented as Khadim Sy and Romello White at the same time. Sy’s greatest value is on the glass and as a roll-man off ball screens, but he’s also started to develop his outside shot a bit in 2019-20. White, arguably the greatest grad transfer snag in the country, was one of the Pac 12’s best rebounders over the last three seasons and started nearly every game of his career at Arizona State. White’s shot blocking, toughness, and aggressiveness on the block will be a welcome addition to an Ole Miss squad that was mostly “finesse” last season. The word “beast” comes to mind when watching White’s game; he should be a wrecking ball in the SEC:

[Image: Romello+White+dunk.gif?format=1500w]

Redshirt freshman Shon Robinson, a borderline 4-star recruit, 6’9” sophomore Sammy Hunter, and 6’7” sophomore Antavion Collum, who returned to Ole Miss following Hinson’s transfer, will provide depth in the frontcourt behind Sy, White, and Buffen.

Ole Miss shined on defense last season in SEC play, notching the 3rd best adjusted defensive efficiency in the conference. Davis is famous for his blob-like 1-3-1 zone defense, one that aggressively traps ball handlers and first passes across the timeline.

This zone is designed to force turnovers and speed up the opposing team. High hands in the face of ball handlers is key to avoid getting beat in the paint past the initial zone layer:

[Image: Ole+Miss+D+gif.gif?format=1500w]

Ole Miss doesn’t give up many three-point looks but did get beat in the paint last season, an area which White can hopefully help bolster.

Bottom Line: The SEC is deep as the Mariana Trench this season, but Ole Miss has the talent to compete near the top. Defense should be at least as stout as last season, likely better with the additions of White and Vaughn. Offensively, the Rebels should be able to make up for the loss of Tyree with help from Joiner and the ascendance of Shuler and the rest of the crop of promising returners.
12-12-2020 02:13 AM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
My biggest concern after reading this writeup is their 1-3-1 zone defense. It's not a defense you see often, and it's a zone defense that's actually effective in stopping the three and putting pressure on the ball. Not a passive zone at all. Our best option will be to get out on the break and stay out of a half court offense as much as possible. In half court, the corner three ball is the kryptonite of a 1-3-1 if you can swing the ball quickly. This is where Boggs may be a better option than Pridgen at the four spot. since he is deadly from the corner. He and Gadsden have both been fantastic from that spot. Sims is more of a straight on three ball shooter.

Also, looks like they will play a similar four out offense like we do. I noticed that Siddle played Boggs and Steere together quite a bit in the St. Andrews game. Maybe did this to prepare for this game. Could see quite a bit of this with Ole Miss starting a 6'9" and 6'7" front court.

It's really hard to guess who he will start and who play a lot in this one. I can imagine several options, since we will be much deeper on the bench than the EZU game. The emergence of Bowden on defense and shot blocking could make a difference today. But it sounds like they will have a 6'9". 235 lb. big man who could dominate the boards if we don't put some real size in the post like Steere. Dodd may also have the power to bang with him on the boards as well.

My guess:

Okauru, Gadsden, Sims, Pridgen, Steere
Harvey, Boggs, Tolefree, Dodd/Bowden

Without Phillips, it's really hard say who is the better PG in his absence. Ty is the better three point shooter, but Okauru is the best rebounder on the team and can get to the bucket. Okauru has also had a real problem with TO's, which could be a huge problem today. We've actually got enough depth and scoring ability to compete today. If Steere/Bowden/Dodd can compete in the post with their bigs, this game could be interesting.

Ole Miss 76
UNCW 71
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2020 08:35 AM by 82hawk.)
12-12-2020 08:25 AM
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Proff Offline
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Post: #5
UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
We are 18.5 point dogs with the over/under at 139.5.

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12-12-2020 09:51 AM
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billthebighawksfan Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
My wife said Ole Miss by 15. I hope we play great and have a shot to win.
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2020 10:18 AM by billthebighawksfan.)
12-12-2020 10:17 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Online
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
I imagine Coach Siddle will attempt to take away Shuler and make Ole Moss beat us in other ways. Problem is they have a lot of ways to win. Most frightening is their front court depth. They started 2 athletic bigs on Thursday in Khadim Sy and KJ Buffen, and have depth for days in the post. I don’t know how we contend with that.
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2020 05:13 PM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
12-12-2020 11:24 AM
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B_Hawk06 Offline
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UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Ole Miss is going to over power us in this one. Ole Miss by 21.

89-68


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12-12-2020 01:58 PM
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Proff Offline
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Post: #9
UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Spread remains 18.5 but the over/under has moved to 142.5.

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12-12-2020 02:25 PM
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tke75hawk Offline
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Post: #10
UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Game on 611-1 on directv

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12-12-2020 05:04 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Okauru, Sims, Boggs, Pridgen, Harvey start

Ole Miss appears to be playing man to start the game
12-12-2020 05:05 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Online
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Pridgen gets the first points of the game. Let's go Hawks.
12-12-2020 05:06 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Getting some flow on offense is going to be tough.
12-12-2020 05:09 PM
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seahawk1 Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Ugly start so far.
12-12-2020 05:11 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Online
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Down 4-2 at the first Media TO. Held Ole Miss to 2-6 shooting and they've turned it over twice.
12-12-2020 05:12 PM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
(12-12-2020 05:04 PM)tke75hawk Wrote:  Game on 611-1 on directv

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12-12-2020 05:14 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
We need some high picks to get out guards open. Honestly believe Dodd/Steere could help setting those picks and then rolling to the bucket and getting some rebounds.
12-12-2020 05:16 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Refs are allowing really physical play by Ole Miss. Over the back rebounds and bodying up guards on the drive. Lots of contact.
12-12-2020 05:19 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Online
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
Ole Miss: 5-19 from the field so far (26 %). 0-4 from 3.

But they also have 9 offensive rebounds, hence why they're ahead.
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2020 05:21 PM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
12-12-2020 05:20 PM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: UNCW vs Ole Miss game 5 thread
(12-12-2020 05:19 PM)82hawk Wrote:  Refs are allowing really physical play by Ole Miss. Over the back rebounds and bodying up guards on the drive. Lots of contact.

Agreed. Definitely doesn't help as we are already struggling with rebounding
12-12-2020 05:20 PM
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