At the beginning of the year, there was a thought that with so little OOC play, this would be a great year to pilot an 8-team playoff. Now, I am less sure. There is not much stumping for Cincinnati or Iowa State to be considered Top Four. A&M had its shot, Florida will get its. USC? ha.

At any rate, here is what an 8-team playoff could look like with today's AP rankings:

#1 Alabama vs. #8 Indiana/USC
#2 Notre Dame vs. #7 Cincinnati
#3 Clemson vs. #6 Florida/Iowa State
#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Texas A&M

My preferred model would be to pit A&M and Indiana (or Georgia or Miami, whoever the top two at-large teams are) against each other alongside the CCGs next weekend, for an at-large spot. 6 spots go to the P5 champs and the top G5. The last spot goes to another at-large (likely a CCG loser). I like this because the ACC and SEC Championship losers can't both make the playoff, building the importance of those games while not totally eliminating the losers; it also adds a marquee play-in game (A&M vs. IU).

The CFP has already said there will be no expansion this year so this is moot.

(12-11-2020 12:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP has already said there will be no expansion this year so this is moot.

Just because there won't be, doesn't mean there are no pros and cons to explore. If a CCG were to be cancelled next week, we'd certainly discuss what was lost (if anything) by that game not being played.

Beyond the glaring logistical challenges of trying to scrape together an additional round of football, competitively this would have been a poor year to do so. We still got to see a decent amount of football from each contender (I still grade OSU an incomplete and in danger of dropping out of the Top 4), and no National Championship-caliber team will get left out of the 4-team playoff, as some feared may happen at the beginning of the year.

Could a year like this dampen the push for expansion in the future?

(12-11-2020 12:31 AM)Crayton Wrote:  At the beginning of the year, there was a thought that with so little OOC play, this would be a great year to pilot an 8-team playoff. Now, I am less sure. There is not much stumping for Cincinnati or Iowa State to be considered Top Four. A&M had its shot, Florida will get its. USC? ha.

At any rate, here is what an 8-team playoff could look like with today's AP rankings:

#1 Alabama vs. #8 Indiana/USC
#2 Notre Dame vs. #7 Cincinnati
#3 Clemson vs. #6 Florida/Iowa State
#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Texas A&M

My preferred model would be to pit A&M and Indiana (or Georgia or Miami, whoever the top two at-large teams are) against each other alongside the CCGs next weekend, for an at-large spot. 6 spots go to the P5 champs and the top G5. The last spot goes to another at-large (likely a CCG loser). I like this because the ACC and SEC Championship losers can't both make the playoff, building the importance of those games while not totally eliminating the losers; it also adds a marquee play-in game (A&M vs. IU).

Sure they can. If Bama loses, they're in, if ND loses they're in. So,....

#1 Florida
#2 Bama
#3 Clemson
#4 Notre Dame

(12-11-2020 12:31 AM)Crayton Wrote:  At the beginning of the year, there was a thought that with so little OOC play, this would be a great year to pilot an 8-team playoff. Now, I am less sure. There is not much stumping for Cincinnati or Iowa State to be considered Top Four. A&M had its shot, Florida will get its. USC? ha.

At any rate, here is what an 8-team playoff could look like with today's AP rankings:

#1 Alabama vs. #8 Indiana/USC
#2 Notre Dame vs. #7 Cincinnati
#3 Clemson vs. #6 Florida/Iowa State
#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Texas A&M

My preferred model would be to pit A&M and Indiana (or Georgia or Miami, whoever the top two at-large teams are) against each other alongside the CCGs next weekend, for an at-large spot. 6 spots go to the P5 champs and the top G5. The last spot goes to another at-large (likely a CCG loser). I like this because the ACC and SEC Championship losers can't both make the playoff, building the importance of those games while not totally eliminating the losers; it also adds a marquee play-in game (A&M vs. IU).

It works if you replace the CCG's with CFP Quarterfinals. Based on the current CFP Rankings and assuming automatic qualifiers for the P5 champs and top G5 champ, this is what we'd get:

(1)Alabama v. (8)USC
(2)Notre Dame v. (7)Cincinnati
(3)Clemson v. (6)Iowa State
(4)Ohio State v. (5)Texas A&M

I know #6 Florida State would be left out to make room for Iowa State, Cincinnati, and USC, but the expanded CFP would be awesome!

Even better, would involve play-in rounds to give the lower conference champs and at large wild cards a shot:

PLAY-IN
Round1
San Jose State @ Marshall
Buffalo @ USC
#11 Oklahoma @ #6 Florida
#10 Miami @ #9 Georgia

Round2
8-seed game: USC/Buffalo @ #13 Coastal Carolina
7-seed game: Marshall/San Jose State @ #8 Cincinnati
6-seed game: Florida/Oklahoma #5 Texas A&M
5-seed game: Georgia/Miami @ #3 Clemson

CFP Quarterfinals
Sugar Bowl: (1)Alabama v. 8-seed winner (Coastal Carolina)
Orange Bowl: (2)Notre Dame v. 7-seed winner (Cincinnati)
Rose Bowl: (3)Ohio State v. 6-seed winner (Texas A&M)
Cotton Bowl: (4)Iowa State v. 5-seed winner (Clemson)

CFP Semifinals
#1: Sugar and Cotton Bowl winners
#2: Orange and Rose Bowl winners

(12-11-2020 10:41 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 12:31 AM)Crayton Wrote:  My preferred model would be to pit A&M and Indiana (or Georgia or Miami, whoever the top two at-large teams are) against each other alongside the CCGs next weekend, for an at-large spot. 6 spots go to the P5 champs and the top G5. The last spot goes to another at-large (likely a CCG loser). I like this because the ACC and SEC Championship losers can't both make the playoff, building the importance of those games while not totally eliminating the losers; it also adds a marquee play-in game (A&M vs. IU).

Sure they can. If Bama loses, they're in, if ND loses they're in. So,....

#1 Florida
#2 Bama
#3 Clemson
#4 Notre Dame

I was speaking of my preferred 5-1-2 playoff, which gives 1 spot to a WCG winner and leaves only 1 true at-large spot for a CCG loser to take. If Bama and ND both lose, 1 will go and the other will be bumped by A&M.

(12-11-2020 02:24 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 12:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP has already said there will be no expansion this year so this is moot.

Just because there won't be, doesn't mean there are no pros and cons to explore. If a CCG were to be cancelled next week, we'd certainly discuss what was lost (if anything) by that game not being played.

Beyond the glaring logistical challenges of trying to scrape together an additional round of football, competitively this would have been a poor year to do so. We still got to see a decent amount of football from each contender (I still grade OSU an incomplete and in danger of dropping out of the Top 4), and no National Championship-caliber team will get left out of the 4-team playoff, as some feared may happen at the beginning of the year.

Could a year like this dampen the push for expansion in the future?

Prior to the pandemic the general consensus was that TV money was already toppy with cord cutting into ESPN's margins and an 8 team playoff is inevitable.

In a pandemic FBS is hemorrhaging cash all the more desperate for playoff expansion.

If Buffalo, Coastal and UC go undefeated someone is going to get left out of an access bowl. A good argument existing in a expanded CFP for at least a second access bowl for the G5 with all the programs included in it.

(12-11-2020 12:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP has already said there will be no expansion this year so this is moot.

Moot for 2020, but the topic of expansion remains of current interest, if only because the NY6 bowls and playoffs are rapidly approaching.

It is, of course, understandable that to ensure the success of an 8-team playoff series, the powers that be would probably prefer to launch it after a full-fledged FB season, rather than throwing together a last-minute hash of an expanded series in the midst of an pandemic, particularly due to covid-19 now being the leading cause of death in the United States, overall.

.

That being said, there are many reasons why an expanded CFB would make a great deal of sense in a year or two.

To expand to 8 teams, the winners of the top 4 NY6 bowls (which would function as the quarterfinals round) could simply advance to a semi-finals round (2 games), with the winners moving on to the championship game.

Ideally, the non-P5 team in the NY6 would automatically qualify to play in the quarterfinal round, at least if they finish undefeated or in the top 10.

Only two games would need to be added, and they would be played during winter break. The upside would be the addition of another high ratings, high revenue weekend of college football. Everybody - the teams, the fans, the networks, and the NCAA would come out ahead.

Huge up-side with no down-side = no-brainer.

(12-11-2020 11:07 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 12:31 AM)Crayton Wrote:  At the beginning of the year, there was a thought that with so little OOC play, this would be a great year to pilot an 8-team playoff. Now, I am less sure. There is not much stumping for Cincinnati or Iowa State to be considered Top Four. A&M had its shot, Florida will get its. USC? ha.

At any rate, here is what an 8-team playoff could look like with today's AP rankings:

#1 Alabama vs. #8 Indiana/USC
#2 Notre Dame vs. #7 Cincinnati
#3 Clemson vs. #6 Florida/Iowa State
#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Texas A&M

My preferred model would be to pit A&M and Indiana (or Georgia or Miami, whoever the top two at-large teams are) against each other alongside the CCGs next weekend, for an at-large spot. 6 spots go to the P5 champs and the top G5. The last spot goes to another at-large (likely a CCG loser). I like this because the ACC and SEC Championship losers can't both make the playoff, building the importance of those games while not totally eliminating the losers; it also adds a marquee play-in game (A&M vs. IU).

It works if you replace the CCG's with CFP Quarterfinals. Based on the current CFP Rankings and assuming automatic qualifiers for the P5 champs and top G5 champ, this is what we'd get:

(1)Alabama v. (8)USC
(2)Notre Dame v. (7)Cincinnati
(3)Clemson v. (6)Iowa State
(4)Ohio State v. (5)Texas A&M

I know #6 Florida would be left out to make room for Iowa State, Cincinnati, and USC, but the expanded CFP would be awesome!

The issue that arises with this is that conferences would prefer to keep their CCG money to themselves, especially the Big Ten and SEC.

An alternative I've seen is that each conference gets to host an exempt 13th game and chooses who they want to participate; winning one of these games is necessary for playoff entry. The SEC and B1G will keep theirs to themselves while the P12/B12/ACC&ND elect to share bids to their games.

2019 Example:
#1 LSU vs. #4 Georgia (Atlanta)
#2 Ohio State vs. #10 Wisconsin (Indianapolis)
#3 Clemson vs. #8 Baylor (Charlotte)
#5 Utah vs. #6 Oklahoma (Arlington)
#13 Oregon vs. #14 Notre Dame (Las Vegas)

2020 Example:
#1 Alabama vs. #11 Florida (Atlanta)
#2 Notre Dame vs. #13 USC (Las Vegas)
#3 Ohio State vs. #15 Northwestern (Indianapolis)
#4 Clemson vs. #8 Iowa State (Charlotte)
#6 Cincinnati vs. #5 Texas A&M (Cincinnati)
#12 Oklahoma vs. #16 North Carolina (Arlington)

Decentralizing the quarterfinals works nicely for 2019 but with ~50% of years there are more than 4 apparent quarterfinal games, as with 2020 when the Top 5 are in 5 different games. 12 years of this and we'll finally get to true quarterfinals; lol.

Whittx, wrong thread or post?

(12-13-2020 09:09 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 11:07 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 12:31 AM)Crayton Wrote:  At the beginning of the year, there was a thought that with so little OOC play, this would be a great year to pilot an 8-team playoff. Now, I am less sure. There is not much stumping for Cincinnati or Iowa State to be considered Top Four. A&M had its shot, Florida will get its. USC? ha.

At any rate, here is what an 8-team playoff could look like with today's AP rankings:

#1 Alabama vs. #8 Indiana/USC
#2 Notre Dame vs. #7 Cincinnati
#3 Clemson vs. #6 Florida/Iowa State
#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Texas A&M

My preferred model would be to pit A&M and Indiana (or Georgia or Miami, whoever the top two at-large teams are) against each other alongside the CCGs next weekend, for an at-large spot. 6 spots go to the P5 champs and the top G5. The last spot goes to another at-large (likely a CCG loser). I like this because the ACC and SEC Championship losers can't both make the playoff, building the importance of those games while not totally eliminating the losers; it also adds a marquee play-in game (A&M vs. IU).

It works if you replace the CCG's with CFP Quarterfinals. Based on the current CFP Rankings and assuming automatic qualifiers for the P5 champs and top G5 champ, this is what we'd get:

(1)Alabama v. (8)USC
(2)Notre Dame v. (7)Cincinnati
(3)Clemson v. (6)Iowa State
(4)Ohio State v. (5)Texas A&M

I know #6 Florida would be left out to make room for Iowa State, Cincinnati, and USC, but the expanded CFP would be awesome!

The issue that arises with this is that conferences would prefer to keep their CCG money to themselves, especially the Big Ten and SEC.

An alternative I've seen is that each conference gets to host an exempt 13th game and chooses who they want to participate; winning one of these games is necessary for playoff entry. The SEC and B1G will keep theirs to themselves while the P12/B12/ACC&ND elect to share bids to their games.

2019 Example:
#1 LSU vs. #4 Georgia (Atlanta)
#2 Ohio State vs. #10 Wisconsin (Indianapolis)
#3 Clemson vs. #8 Baylor (Charlotte)
#5 Utah vs. #6 Oklahoma (Arlington)
#13 Oregon vs. #14 Notre Dame (Las Vegas)

2020 Example:
#1 Alabama vs. #11 Florida (Atlanta)
#2 Notre Dame vs. #13 USC (Las Vegas)
#3 Ohio State vs. #15 Northwestern (Indianapolis)
#4 Clemson vs. #8 Iowa State (Charlotte)
#6 Cincinnati vs. #5 Texas A&M (Cincinnati)
#12 Oklahoma vs. #16 North Carolina (Arlington)

Decentralizing the quarterfinals works nicely for 2019 but with ~50% of years there are more than 4 apparent quarterfinal games, as with 2020 when the Top 5 are in 5 different games. 12 years of this and we'll finally get to true quarterfinals; lol.

OK. Here's my compromise.

Each of the P5 and the collective G5 each get a showcase game on the first weekend. That's 6 games. Add two more wild card showcase games at predetermined locations.

So, for 2020:
SEC (Atlanta): #1 Alabama vs. #10 Florida
B1G (Indianapolis): #4 Ohio State vs. #15 Northwestern
ACC (Charlotte): #2 Notre Dame vs. #16 North Carolina
B12 (Arlington): #8 Iowa State vs. #12 Oklahoma
PAC (Las Vegas): #13 USC vs. Washington...er, Oregon
G5 (New Orleans): #6 Cincinnati vs. #9 Coastal Carolina
WC (Tampa): #3 Clemson vs. #11 Georgia
WC (Los Angeles): #5 Texas A&M vs. #7 Indiana

That's 8 solid CFP Round 1 matchups, with the G5 guaranteed to have a team in the quarterfinals.

Then, for the CFP quarterfinals, place SEC and B12 in the Sugar Bowl, B1G and PAC in the Rose Bowl, and the other four winners in the Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, or Peach bowls:

Sugar: #1 Alabama v. #8 Iowa State
Orange: #2 Notre Dame vs. #6 Cincinnati
Cotton: #3 Clemson vs. #5 Texas A&M
Rose: #4 Ohio State vs. #13 USC

This gives the P5's the CCG revenue, honors the NY6 bowl tradition, while also providing some flexibility for excellent quarterfinal matchups.

(12-15-2020 06:14 PM)YNot Wrote:  OK. Here's my compromise.

Each of the P5 and the collective G5 each get a showcase game on the first weekend. That's 6 games. Add two more wild card showcase games at predetermined locations.

So, for 2020:
SEC (Atlanta): #1 Alabama vs. #10 Florida
B1G (Indianapolis): #4 Ohio State vs. #15 Northwestern
ACC (Charlotte): #2 Notre Dame vs. #16 North Carolina
B12 (Arlington): #8 Iowa State vs. #12 Oklahoma
PAC (Las Vegas): #13 USC vs. Washington...er, Oregon
G5 (New Orleans): #6 Cincinnati vs. #9 Coastal Carolina
WC (Tampa): #3 Clemson vs. #11 Georgia
WC (Los Angeles): #5 Texas A&M vs. #7 Indiana

That's 8 solid CFP Round 1 matchups, with the G5 guaranteed to have a team in the quarterfinals.

Then, for the CFP quarterfinals, place SEC and B12 in the Sugar Bowl, B1G and PAC in the Rose Bowl, and the other four winners in the Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, or Peach bowls:

Sugar: #1 Alabama v. #8 Iowa State
Orange: #2 Notre Dame vs. #6 Cincinnati
Cotton: #3 Clemson vs. #5 Texas A&M
Rose: #4 Ohio State vs. #13 USC

This gives the P5's the CCG revenue, honors the NY6 bowl tradition, while also providing some flexibility for excellent quarterfinal matchups.

Pretty good. Smaller considerations:
1) What to do if 2 Top 4 teams are paired in their conference's 13th game? If the next round were National Semifinals, I could see the loser being eliminated. But if there are 8 teams playing in the next round, should there be room (1 spot? replace Clemson-Georgia and put Clemson back in the ACCCG) for a team whose only loss was against another of the best teams in the country?

2) Cincy v. Coastal would be exciting to watch with a spot in the playoffs on the line. However, I suspect the UC-TU and CCU-ULL games would BOTH draw national attention even if the polls had to decide between the 2 winners. The American and the Sun Belt would likely want to keep their games as is, rather than sharing the attention (and money) with 4 other conferences.

(12-15-2020 08:18 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-15-2020 06:14 PM)YNot Wrote:  OK. Here's my compromise.

Each of the P5 and the collective G5 each get a showcase game on the first weekend. That's 6 games. Add two more wild card showcase games at predetermined locations.

So, for 2020:
SEC (Atlanta): #1 Alabama vs. #10 Florida
B1G (Indianapolis): #4 Ohio State vs. #15 Northwestern
ACC (Charlotte): #2 Notre Dame vs. #16 North Carolina
B12 (Arlington): #8 Iowa State vs. #12 Oklahoma
PAC (Las Vegas): #13 USC vs. Washington...er, Oregon
G5 (New Orleans): #6 Cincinnati vs. #9 Coastal Carolina
WC (Tampa): #3 Clemson vs. #11 Georgia
WC (Los Angeles): #5 Texas A&M vs. #7 Indiana

That's 8 solid CFP Round 1 matchups, with the G5 guaranteed to have a team in the quarterfinals.

Then, for the CFP quarterfinals, place SEC and B12 in the Sugar Bowl, B1G and PAC in the Rose Bowl, and the other four winners in the Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, or Peach bowls:

Sugar: #1 Alabama v. #8 Iowa State
Orange: #2 Notre Dame vs. #6 Cincinnati
Cotton: #3 Clemson vs. #5 Texas A&M
Rose: #4 Ohio State vs. #13 USC

This gives the P5's the CCG revenue, honors the NY6 bowl tradition, while also providing some flexibility for excellent quarterfinal matchups.

Pretty good. Smaller considerations:
1) What to do if 2 Top 4 teams are paired in their conference's 13th game? If the next round were National Semifinals, I could see the loser being eliminated. But if there are 8 teams playing in the next round, should there be room (1 spot? replace Clemson-Georgia and put Clemson back in the ACCCG) for a team whose only loss was against another of the best teams in the country?

2) Cincy v. Coastal would be exciting to watch with a spot in the playoffs on the line. However, I suspect the UC-TU and CCU-ULL games would BOTH draw national attention even if the polls had to decide between the 2 winners. The American and the Sun Belt would likely want to keep their games as is, rather than sharing the attention (and money) with 4 other conferences.

1) I put Notre Dame and North Carolina in the ACC CCG and Clemson in the wildcard game in Tampa vs. Georgia. I think the ACC would do something like that to avoid the top-4 ACC knock-out game.

2) The AAC and Sun Belt would be okay with this setup if it meant an automatic place in the playoffs for the G5.

No thanks.

While I understand a pre-determined 8-team format would include an auto spot for the P5, this year I may have liked seeing this ad-hoc tournament:

Alabama vs. Coastal Carolina
Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Ohio State vs. Cincinnati
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

CCU is the 6th highest ranked champ, Pac-12 teams (and MW and MAC) played half as much as Sun Belt teams, and CCU was undefeated with two Top 25 victories. Cincinnati was also undefeated. Oklahoma finished strong after a shaky start. And, we finally get to resolve ND-A&M on the field.

This would have been a fun year for an 8 team playoff. Take all of the P5 champs and all of the other undefeated conference champs:

Alabama (SEC) vs. Oregon (PAC)
Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. SJSU (MW)
Clemson (ACC) vs. Coastal Carolina (Sun)
Ohio State (Big 10) vs. Cincinnati (AAC)

Technically, it’s more of a 16 team playoff when you factor in all of the conference title games that these 8 teams won. Which means that I didn’t leave out Notre Dame. They got blown out to Clemson in the sweet 16.

(12-11-2020 02:24 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 12:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP has already said there will be no expansion this year so this is moot.

Just because there won't be, doesn't mean there are no pros and cons to explore. If a CCG were to be cancelled next week, we'd certainly discuss what was lost (if anything) by that game not being played.

Beyond the glaring logistical challenges of trying to scrape together an additional round of football, competitively this would have been a poor year to do so. We still got to see a decent amount of football from each contender (I still grade OSU an incomplete and in danger of dropping out of the Top 4), and no National Championship-caliber team will get left out of the 4-team playoff, as some feared may happen at the beginning of the year.

Could a year like this dampen the push for expansion in the future?

Yeah, because who the hell would want to watch two extra playoff games with teams such as Cincinnati or Texas A&M in the playoff series, anyway? (wink)