(12-10-2020 03:35 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 08:39 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 06:23 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(12-08-2020 07:41 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  Boise was joining the Big East with SDSU and when the BE lost power status, they said thanks but no thanks. They’re not joining the AAC and I think that ship has also sailed from the AAC side of things.

So, in other words, the AAC's strategic plan to become a power conference is doomed to fail, because there will never be more than 5 power conferences?

Honestly, no. The current five power conferences have no incentive to allow the AAC a seat at their table and make their shares/pieces smaller. In fact, there's more incentive for them to cannibalize each other, make it four or even three power conferences. Get it to four and the four remaining can guarantee Playoff spots for their champions every year (you don't think the Pathetic 12 wouldn't want that if they are one of the four survivors?)

As for the networks, the AAC has to give a network or network a reason for them to pay them Power 5 rates. You've been tracking G5 television ratings all season and I believe the most watched G5 game was Central Florida-Georgia Tech which got over 3 million. While no Pathetic 12 game this season got more than 3 million viewers this season, the game also featured an ACC team. I don't think most of the Big 12 is much better than the AAC, the problem is they have two members that are clearly better. If you moved Texas and Oklahoma to the AAC, the AAC would have Big 12 payouts and the Big 12 would be getting AAC payouts. The AAC doesn't have one member that is the dominant school in its state. They have schools in a bunch of cities but you'd be hard pressed to say any of the schools dominate their city, at least in football (I doubt Cincinnati is the #1 school in Cincy or UCF is the #1 school in Orlando, correct me if I'm wrong, I'm pretty sure Temple isn't #1 here in Philly in football .. or men's basketball). And you can add as many G5 schools as you want but it won't help, the only way the AAC will ever get P5 money is if it gets not only a P5 school but a relevant one (half the P5 schools aren't relevant, they're being carried by the relevant ones). The bad news is the AAC just doesn't have any relevant schools.

You're a Temple fan and you're trying to build up the AAC. I'm a Temple fan and I'd do anything to get out of the AAC. I hate it. Half the teams are western crap. You can't even get excited about men's basketball conference games vs. SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. It's even worse now with UConn gone as Temple's now the only Eastern school in the whole conference (Navy in football).

You're wrong. UCF has become the #1 team in Orlando and most of the I-4 corridor.

Its easy to win over your market in Florida as its a mixed allegiance state to begin with.

In the beginning it was one lousy SEC program in Florida. Then FSU and Miami became good. Then Florida finally got its act together with Spurrier. Then USF and UCF moved up. Its always evolving as one good Florida pipeline can completely change a program.

(12-11-2020 09:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 09:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 01:30 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  It won't happen, but it should. The pre-2003 ACC and 2005-2012 Big East were taken seriously in football mostly because they were indisputably power conferences in basketball.

My recall is that the 2005 - 2012 Big East was not taken seriously in football. It was routinely derided as the "Big Least" during that time. It was constantly being criticized as unworthy of "AQ" status in the media and by fans of other leagues. It only had AQ status because it was written in the BCS contract, and other AQ new it would be legally impossible, or at least extremely costly, to try and change that. Efforts were even made to come up with "performance metrics" that could result in the Big East being booted, all of this despite the fact that in terms of on-field performance, it was a very legitimate power/AQ football conference during that time.

If anything, the concurrent dominance of Big East basketball hurt the perception of Big East football. The football conference was good but the hoops conference was great, so that cast another shadow over the football side.

The Big East had no kings. So they got underrated in the public eye. They had also lost their top 2 and #4 or #5 program. Pitt, Rutgers and Temple had all been really bad prior to 2005. Temple even got booted from the conference and they usually finished ahead of Rutgers. But Pitt improved, WVU stepped up and the new members did well.

At least someone else realizes Rutgers sucked as bad as we did. Now you know why I hate them. What was even worse was them getting into the Big East as full members a decade before. That should have been based on men's basketball when Temple was going through the John Chaney era and Rutgers was Rutgers.

(12-10-2020 03:35 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 08:39 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 06:23 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(12-08-2020 07:41 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  Boise was joining the Big East with SDSU and when the BE lost power status, they said thanks but no thanks. They’re not joining the AAC and I think that ship has also sailed from the AAC side of things.

So, in other words, the AAC's strategic plan to become a power conference is doomed to fail, because there will never be more than 5 power conferences?

Honestly, no. The current five power conferences have no incentive to allow the AAC a seat at their table and make their shares/pieces smaller. In fact, there's more incentive for them to cannibalize each other, make it four or even three power conferences. Get it to four and the four remaining can guarantee Playoff spots for their champions every year (you don't think the Pathetic 12 wouldn't want that if they are one of the four survivors?)

As for the networks, the AAC has to give a network or network a reason for them to pay them Power 5 rates. You've been tracking G5 television ratings all season and I believe the most watched G5 game was Central Florida-Georgia Tech which got over 3 million. While no Pathetic 12 game this season got more than 3 million viewers this season, the game also featured an ACC team. I don't think most of the Big 12 is much better than the AAC, the problem is they have two members that are clearly better. If you moved Texas and Oklahoma to the AAC, the AAC would have Big 12 payouts and the Big 12 would be getting AAC payouts. The AAC doesn't have one member that is the dominant school in its state. They have schools in a bunch of cities but you'd be hard pressed to say any of the schools dominate their city, at least in football (I doubt Cincinnati is the #1 school in Cincy or UCF is the #1 school in Orlando, correct me if I'm wrong, I'm pretty sure Temple isn't #1 here in Philly in football .. or men's basketball). And you can add as many G5 schools as you want but it won't help, the only way the AAC will ever get P5 money is if it gets not only a P5 school but a relevant one (half the P5 schools aren't relevant, they're being carried by the relevant ones). The bad news is the AAC just doesn't have any relevant schools.

You're a Temple fan and you're trying to build up the AAC. I'm a Temple fan and I'd do anything to get out of the AAC. I hate it. Half the teams are western crap. You can't even get excited about men's basketball conference games vs. SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. It's even worse now with UConn gone as Temple's now the only Eastern school in the whole conference (Navy in football).

You're wrong. UCF has become the #1 team in Orlando and most of the I-4 corridor.

538 did a study in 2019 (so we're not talking ancient data). You can find it here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/col...ket-sales/

Here are the most popular schools with respect to buying tickets along the I-4 corridor:

Volusia County: #1 Florida, #2 FSU (44.5% of the total tickets sold)
Seminole County: #1 UCF, #2 Florida (37.7%)
Orange County: #1 Florida, #2 UCF (33.6%)
Osceola County: #1 Florida, #2 FSU (40.1%)
Polk County: #1 Florida, #2 FSU (46.4%)
Hillsborough County: #1 Florida, #2 USF (38.1%)

Now, I'm not a professional statistician or anything, but even I can see that the University of Florida is the #1 team along "most of the I-4 corridor," and that includes Orange County (where Orlando is located).

USFFan

Was it that they had no kings after Miami left, or was it that nobody wanted to call West Virginia or Cincinnati, who could typically be found at the top of the conference, as conference royalty? I think BEF couldn’t get a break at times, and long suffered from a lesser major bias that hit these guys harder than other conferences.

I remember people talking them down when Mountain West teams were nationally relevant, like Utah and TCU. But, it never seemed fair that people could say that when BEF’s basement may have been some of those down Cuse, Pitt, UConn, and Rutgers squads and then compare that to “legacy suck” programs like UNLV and UNM, and then those Wyoming and Colorado State teams. BEF was definitely better even without an unblemished school most years. But, imo, for whatever reason, people didn’t perceive WVU or BEF as strong.

(12-11-2020 10:22 AM)usffan Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 03:35 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 08:39 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 06:23 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(12-08-2020 07:41 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  Boise was joining the Big East with SDSU and when the BE lost power status, they said thanks but no thanks. They’re not joining the AAC and I think that ship has also sailed from the AAC side of things.

So, in other words, the AAC's strategic plan to become a power conference is doomed to fail, because there will never be more than 5 power conferences?

Honestly, no. The current five power conferences have no incentive to allow the AAC a seat at their table and make their shares/pieces smaller. In fact, there's more incentive for them to cannibalize each other, make it four or even three power conferences. Get it to four and the four remaining can guarantee Playoff spots for their champions every year (you don't think the Pathetic 12 wouldn't want that if they are one of the four survivors?)

As for the networks, the AAC has to give a network or network a reason for them to pay them Power 5 rates. You've been tracking G5 television ratings all season and I believe the most watched G5 game was Central Florida-Georgia Tech which got over 3 million. While no Pathetic 12 game this season got more than 3 million viewers this season, the game also featured an ACC team. I don't think most of the Big 12 is much better than the AAC, the problem is they have two members that are clearly better. If you moved Texas and Oklahoma to the AAC, the AAC would have Big 12 payouts and the Big 12 would be getting AAC payouts. The AAC doesn't have one member that is the dominant school in its state. They have schools in a bunch of cities but you'd be hard pressed to say any of the schools dominate their city, at least in football (I doubt Cincinnati is the #1 school in Cincy or UCF is the #1 school in Orlando, correct me if I'm wrong, I'm pretty sure Temple isn't #1 here in Philly in football .. or men's basketball). And you can add as many G5 schools as you want but it won't help, the only way the AAC will ever get P5 money is if it gets not only a P5 school but a relevant one (half the P5 schools aren't relevant, they're being carried by the relevant ones). The bad news is the AAC just doesn't have any relevant schools.

You're a Temple fan and you're trying to build up the AAC. I'm a Temple fan and I'd do anything to get out of the AAC. I hate it. Half the teams are western crap. You can't even get excited about men's basketball conference games vs. SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. It's even worse now with UConn gone as Temple's now the only Eastern school in the whole conference (Navy in football).

You're wrong. UCF has become the #1 team in Orlando and most of the I-4 corridor.

538 did a study in 2019 (so we're not talking ancient data). You can find it here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/col...ket-sales/

Here are the most popular schools with respect to buying tickets along the I-4 corridor:

Volusia County: #1 Florida, #2 FSU (44.5% of the total tickets sold)
Seminole County: #1 UCF, #2 Florida (37.7%)
Orange County: #1 Florida, #2 UCF (33.6%)
Osceola County: #1 Florida, #2 FSU (40.1%)
Polk County: #1 Florida, #2 FSU (46.4%)
Hillsborough County: #1 Florida, #2 USF (38.1%)

Now, I'm not a professional statistician or anything, but even I can see that the University of Florida is the #1 team along "most of the I-4 corridor," and that includes Orange County (where Orlando is located).

USFFan

Just for a disclaimer, this data is terrible. If I remember correctly, it uses 1 ticket service that a great number of schools will not have much data representation on. Schools with large stadiums and cheap tickets will basically be non-existent on this.

(12-11-2020 10:30 AM)Titans3775 Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 10:22 AM)usffan Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 03:35 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 08:39 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 06:23 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  So, in other words, the AAC's strategic plan to become a power conference is doomed to fail, because there will never be more than 5 power conferences?

Honestly, no. The current five power conferences have no incentive to allow the AAC a seat at their table and make their shares/pieces smaller. In fact, there's more incentive for them to cannibalize each other, make it four or even three power conferences. Get it to four and the four remaining can guarantee Playoff spots for their champions every year (you don't think the Pathetic 12 wouldn't want that if they are one of the four survivors?)

As for the networks, the AAC has to give a network or network a reason for them to pay them Power 5 rates. You've been tracking G5 television ratings all season and I believe the most watched G5 game was Central Florida-Georgia Tech which got over 3 million. While no Pathetic 12 game this season got more than 3 million viewers this season, the game also featured an ACC team. I don't think most of the Big 12 is much better than the AAC, the problem is they have two members that are clearly better. If you moved Texas and Oklahoma to the AAC, the AAC would have Big 12 payouts and the Big 12 would be getting AAC payouts. The AAC doesn't have one member that is the dominant school in its state. They have schools in a bunch of cities but you'd be hard pressed to say any of the schools dominate their city, at least in football (I doubt Cincinnati is the #1 school in Cincy or UCF is the #1 school in Orlando, correct me if I'm wrong, I'm pretty sure Temple isn't #1 here in Philly in football .. or men's basketball). And you can add as many G5 schools as you want but it won't help, the only way the AAC will ever get P5 money is if it gets not only a P5 school but a relevant one (half the P5 schools aren't relevant, they're being carried by the relevant ones). The bad news is the AAC just doesn't have any relevant schools.

You're a Temple fan and you're trying to build up the AAC. I'm a Temple fan and I'd do anything to get out of the AAC. I hate it. Half the teams are western crap. You can't even get excited about men's basketball conference games vs. SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. It's even worse now with UConn gone as Temple's now the only Eastern school in the whole conference (Navy in football).

You're wrong. UCF has become the #1 team in Orlando and most of the I-4 corridor.

538 did a study in 2019 (so we're not talking ancient data). You can find it here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/col...ket-sales/

Here are the most popular schools with respect to buying tickets along the I-4 corridor:

Volusia County: #1 Florida, #2 FSU (44.5% of the total tickets sold)
Seminole County: #1 UCF, #2 Florida (37.7%)
Orange County: #1 Florida, #2 UCF (33.6%)
Osceola County: #1 Florida, #2 FSU (40.1%)
Polk County: #1 Florida, #2 FSU (46.4%)
Hillsborough County: #1 Florida, #2 USF (38.1%)

Now, I'm not a professional statistician or anything, but even I can see that the University of Florida is the #1 team along "most of the I-4 corridor," and that includes Orange County (where Orlando is located).

USFFan

Just for a disclaimer, this data is terrible. If I remember correctly, it uses 1 ticket service that a great number of schools will not have much data representation on. Schools with large stadiums and cheap tickets will basically be non-existent on this.

I used it because it's the most recent data. Here's one the NYT did in 2014 (so a bit older) using Facebook data:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014...15,-82.014

It still doesn't come close to making the case that UCF is the #1 team along "most of the I-4 corridor."

The University of Florida is the #1 team, as much as it pains me to say that.

USFFan

By the same criteria:

Hamilton County (Cincinnati): Ohio State 26.7%, Kentucky 15.3%

Philadelphia County: Temple 19.5%, Penn State 17.6%

However, in the Philly suburbs, Penn State dominates.

Bucks County (Suburb where I live): Penn State 38.7%, Temple 14.1%
Montgomery County: Penn State 32.6%, Temple 15.1%
Chester County: Penn State 35.7%, Temple 10.3%
Delaware County: Penn State 28.1%, Temple 13.9%

Harris County TX (where Reliant Stadium, Houston Texans is): Texas A&M 24.7%, Texas 14.8%, Houston 9.6%

(12-11-2020 11:28 AM)schmolik Wrote:  By the same criteria:

Hamilton County (Cincinnati): Ohio State 26.7%, Kentucky 15.3%

Philadelphia County: Temple 19.5%, Penn State 17.6%

However, in the Philly suburbs, Penn State dominates.

Bucks County (Suburb where I live): Penn State 38.7%, Temple 14.1%
Montgomery County: Penn State 32.6%, Temple 15.1%
Chester County: Penn State 35.7%, Temple 10.3%
Delaware County: Penn State 28.1%, Temple 13.9%

Harris County TX (where Reliant Stadium, Houston Texans is): Texas A&M 24.7%, Texas 14.8%, Houston 9.6%

if houston was in an autonomous conference its % would be much higher, say mybe 38%

(12-10-2020 02:56 PM)esayem Wrote:  Cincinnati may have the best radio station in Cincinnati, but I’d venture to guess their games aren’t broadcast on other major Ohio cities’ local stations.

The Cincinnati argument is always that they deliver Ohio, which they don’t. They deliver Cincinnati.

Huh? I've never heard anyone claim that UC delivers Ohio. Probably far from it, since we all know the identity of the 800-pound gorilla in the state. But I think it would safe to say that UC is gaining market-share. It's a big school in a populous state with a large living-alumni base, and it's attracting students from all over Ohio, from every state, and scores of foreign nations.

Would it be more appealing to you if it offered faux classes for athletes?

Here in Davidson County (Nashville), there are far more Tennessee fans than Vanderbilt fans. There might even be more Tennessee State University fans than VU fans. A good number of Big Blue Tiger fans. We also have a solid contingent of Middle Tennessee State fans.

But we have had so many folks move here from other places during the past 20 years that I feel there might be more fans, collectively, of other college sports teams than there are Tennessee fans.

When I returned from Chicago in the early 1990s and would look to talk about DePaul to other college sports fans ... not many Big East fans here back then. Now I see a decent number of folks wearing, in particular, Xavier and Georgetown shirts and hats.

Nashville also has a good number of Big Ten and ACC fans, with a solid contingent of Big 12.

I don't know/see many Pac-12 fans.

(12-11-2020 12:39 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 02:56 PM)esayem Wrote:  Cincinnati may have the best radio station in Cincinnati, but I’d venture to guess their games aren’t broadcast on other major Ohio cities’ local stations.

The Cincinnati argument is always that they deliver Ohio, which they don’t. They deliver Cincinnati.

Huh? I've never heard anyone claim that UC delivers Ohio. Probably far from it, since we all know the identity of the 800-pound gorilla in the state. But I think it would safe to say that UC is gaining market-share. It's a big school in a populous state with a large living-alumni base, and it's attracting students from all over Ohio, from every state, and scores of foreign nations.

Would it be more appealing to you if it offered faux classes for athletes?

I'm not sure colonhawk, what do you think?

You may not have claimed this yourself, but it has been said many times before. "It helps conference X get into Ohio." What does that even mean? The market model is dead, and it's not like it's going to help FSU or Kansas State recruit Ohio, they can do that without having a school there. Hell, Carolina snagged Trubisky without any help.

(12-11-2020 11:48 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 11:28 AM)schmolik Wrote:  By the same criteria:

Hamilton County (Cincinnati): Ohio State 26.7%, Kentucky 15.3%

Philadelphia County: Temple 19.5%, Penn State 17.6%

However, in the Philly suburbs, Penn State dominates.

Bucks County (Suburb where I live): Penn State 38.7%, Temple 14.1%
Montgomery County: Penn State 32.6%, Temple 15.1%
Chester County: Penn State 35.7%, Temple 10.3%
Delaware County: Penn State 28.1%, Temple 13.9%

Harris County TX (where Reliant Stadium, Houston Texans is): Texas A&M 24.7%, Texas 14.8%, Houston 9.6%

if houston was in an autonomous conference its % would be much higher, say mybe 38%

I've never seen any evidence of that. And I've been in Houston over fifty years. Even in the SWC the dome was pretty empty. And now things are trending down again: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-s...792258.php

(12-11-2020 09:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 09:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 01:30 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  It won't happen, but it should. The pre-2003 ACC and 2005-2012 Big East were taken seriously in football mostly because they were indisputably power conferences in basketball.

My recall is that the 2005 - 2012 Big East was not taken seriously in football. It was routinely derided as the "Big Least" during that time. It was constantly being criticized as unworthy of "AQ" status in the media and by fans of other leagues. It only had AQ status because it was written in the BCS contract, and other AQ new it would be legally impossible, or at least extremely costly, to try and change that. Efforts were even made to come up with "performance metrics" that could result in the Big East being booted, all of this despite the fact that in terms of on-field performance, it was a very legitimate power/AQ football conference during that time.

If anything, the concurrent dominance of Big East basketball hurt the perception of Big East football. The football conference was good but the hoops conference was great, so that cast another shadow over the football side.

The Big East had no kings. So they got underrated in the public eye. They had also lost their top 2 and #4 or #5 program. Pitt, Rutgers and Temple had all been really bad prior to 2005. Temple even got booted from the conference and they usually finished ahead of Rutgers. But Pitt improved, WVU stepped up and the new members did well.

No question, if someone wanted to argue that the 2005+ Big East did not deserve AQ status on the basis of Brand Value, which is really the fundamental basis for AQ and now "P" status, they would have been correct.

But IIRC, critics of the Big East's AQ status almost never made that argument. The argument was that the Big East sucked on the field, wasn't worthy because it didn't perform like an AQ on the field - when actually it did.

(12-11-2020 01:10 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 11:48 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  

(12-11-2020 11:28 AM)schmolik Wrote:  By the same criteria:

Hamilton County (Cincinnati): Ohio State 26.7%, Kentucky 15.3%

Philadelphia County: Temple 19.5%, Penn State 17.6%

However, in the Philly suburbs, Penn State dominates.

Bucks County (Suburb where I live): Penn State 38.7%, Temple 14.1%
Montgomery County: Penn State 32.6%, Temple 15.1%
Chester County: Penn State 35.7%, Temple 10.3%
Delaware County: Penn State 28.1%, Temple 13.9%

Harris County TX (where Reliant Stadium, Houston Texans is): Texas A&M 24.7%, Texas 14.8%, Houston 9.6%

if houston was in an autonomous conference its % would be much higher, say mybe 38%

I've never seen any evidence of that. And I've been in Houston over fifty years. Even in the SWC the dome was pretty empty. And now things are trending down again: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-s...792258.php

i believe it’s trending up for houston and being in the AAC is one big reason and i also believe the entire G5 conferences is trending up and your right about playing in the dome was never a big draw for cougar football
the current administration at UofH is another big reason for trending up and providing a clear path to continue trending up
how’s that new indoor practice facility working out for y’all so far ?

(12-10-2020 02:56 PM)esayem Wrote:  Cincinnati may have the best radio station in Cincinnati, but I’d venture to guess their games aren’t broadcast on other major Ohio cities’ local stations.

The Cincinnati argument is always that they deliver Ohio, which they don’t. They deliver Cincinnati.

Honestly, haven’t seen that one. I don’t think think it’s far fetched to presume AAC teams have a substantial presence in home markets outside of the private schools...thinking mainly of UC, UCF, ECU, UM, UH and Navy (national interest). ESPN wouldn’t pay if those markets weren’t at least in play.