(12-10-2020 10:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:48 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:32 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  There was a year in '03 where the Jason White led Sooners got throttled by Sproles and K-State. They still qualified for the title game. In a similar situation, Bama and ND could be out, so I agree completely with that scenario.

... and that fiasco was the second of a one-two punch (Nebraska did the same thing two years earlier, made the BCS title game despite getting creamed in the B12 title game) that caused a change in the BCS formula so it wouldn't happen again.

And IMO it will not happen again. Any team that gets crushed in their CCG will not make the playoffs. Any team, mark my words.

+1

Well gimme my "+1" then, LOL.

I can only do +3, so you owe me two good posts

(12-10-2020 11:10 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:01 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:49 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Regardless of the scores, a lot depends on how the games are played and how the teams look. Notre Dame will still get into the CFP with a loss to Clemson - but it has to be close and not an infamous ND blowout. If it is a blowout, that would definitely lead to a opening for someone to not only leapfrog, but also kick out ND entirely. I cannot imagine the Alabama losing or getting blown out to Florida, but the same idea still applies. Alabama has a little more wiggle room in that department since is has convincing/dominating wins against A&M and Georgia. A&M cannot get in with Alabama out, IMO.

You know, on second thought, this unique virus situation creates a possible caveat to my claim that no team that gets blown out in their CCG will make the playoffs. The exception would be if Notre Dame or Alabama is forced to play their CCG with heavy losses due to the virus, lots of key guys can't suit up because of virus protocols but still enough to go ahead with the game.

If that's the scenario, then I think that excuse could get them in despite a blowout loss.

The committee is talking about how impressed they were with Ohio St. when they blew out a bad Michigan ST. team with 3 O line starters out. But then they are easily impressed if its Ohio St. or Alabama.

Oklahoma St. in 2011 lost a close game on the road to Iowa St. a couple days after a plane crash killed several members of the OSU athletic deparment. The whole university was in shock. Committee decided Alabama deserved another shot vs. LSU. ESPN acted like Oklahoma St. didn't even exist.

The BCS did that. There was no committee.

The BCS formula was great. Almost perfect. I was not happy when they jettisoned it in favor of a cloistered committee.

Here's how the BCS would rank teams this week:

(12-10-2020 11:40 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:10 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:01 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:49 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Regardless of the scores, a lot depends on how the games are played and how the teams look. Notre Dame will still get into the CFP with a loss to Clemson - but it has to be close and not an infamous ND blowout. If it is a blowout, that would definitely lead to a opening for someone to not only leapfrog, but also kick out ND entirely. I cannot imagine the Alabama losing or getting blown out to Florida, but the same idea still applies. Alabama has a little more wiggle room in that department since is has convincing/dominating wins against A&M and Georgia. A&M cannot get in with Alabama out, IMO.

You know, on second thought, this unique virus situation creates a possible caveat to my claim that no team that gets blown out in their CCG will make the playoffs. The exception would be if Notre Dame or Alabama is forced to play their CCG with heavy losses due to the virus, lots of key guys can't suit up because of virus protocols but still enough to go ahead with the game.

If that's the scenario, then I think that excuse could get them in despite a blowout loss.

The committee is talking about how impressed they were with Ohio St. when they blew out a bad Michigan ST. team with 3 O line starters out. But then they are easily impressed if its Ohio St. or Alabama.

Oklahoma St. in 2011 lost a close game on the road to Iowa St. a couple days after a plane crash killed several members of the OSU athletic deparment. The whole university was in shock. Committee decided Alabama deserved another shot vs. LSU. ESPN acted like Oklahoma St. didn't even exist.

The BCS did that. There was no committee.

The BCS formula was great. Almost perfect. I was not happy when they jettisoned it in favor of a cloistered committee.

Here's how the BCS would rank teams this week:

So, the top 4 are the same. And, the committee values the head to head between TAMU and Florida. No complaints here.

I understand the issue with Iowa St, but when you have played 4 games (2-2) against teams who the committee believe are top 25 worthy, vs 0 teams (Cincinnati), doesn’t schedule strength have to matter at some point?

(12-10-2020 12:13 PM)leofrog Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:40 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:10 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:01 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  You know, on second thought, this unique virus situation creates a possible caveat to my claim that no team that gets blown out in their CCG will make the playoffs. The exception would be if Notre Dame or Alabama is forced to play their CCG with heavy losses due to the virus, lots of key guys can't suit up because of virus protocols but still enough to go ahead with the game.

If that's the scenario, then I think that excuse could get them in despite a blowout loss.

The committee is talking about how impressed they were with Ohio St. when they blew out a bad Michigan ST. team with 3 O line starters out. But then they are easily impressed if its Ohio St. or Alabama.

Oklahoma St. in 2011 lost a close game on the road to Iowa St. a couple days after a plane crash killed several members of the OSU athletic deparment. The whole university was in shock. Committee decided Alabama deserved another shot vs. LSU. ESPN acted like Oklahoma St. didn't even exist.

The BCS did that. There was no committee.

The BCS formula was great. Almost perfect. I was not happy when they jettisoned it in favor of a cloistered committee.

Here's how the BCS would rank teams this week:

So, the top 4 are the same. And, the committee values the head to head between TAMU and Florida. No complaints here.

I understand the issue with Iowa St, but when you have played 4 games (2-2) against teams who the committee believe are top 25 worthy, vs 0 teams (Cincinnati), doesn’t schedule strength have to matter at some point?

Sure, schedule strength should count.

But schedule strength counts a lot more if you win the games. Last year, Texas A&M was 0-5 against top 10 teams and 8-0 against everyone else (including 8-5 Oklahoma State). Yet Texas A&M was unranked.

If you're 2-2 against teams ranked 11, 19, 20, and 22, then you should be ranked in the middle of those 4 opponents. Especially because the wins were very close, and one of the losses was by 3 scores at home.

Why is 2-2 against ranked teams better than 1-1 (like BYU, Louisiana, or Indiana)? And why is it better than 2-0 (like Coastal Carolina)?

(12-10-2020 02:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 12:13 PM)leofrog Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:40 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:10 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:01 AM)bullet Wrote:  The committee is talking about how impressed they were with Ohio St. when they blew out a bad Michigan ST. team with 3 O line starters out. But then they are easily impressed if its Ohio St. or Alabama.

Oklahoma St. in 2011 lost a close game on the road to Iowa St. a couple days after a plane crash killed several members of the OSU athletic deparment. The whole university was in shock. Committee decided Alabama deserved another shot vs. LSU. ESPN acted like Oklahoma St. didn't even exist.

The BCS did that. There was no committee.

The BCS formula was great. Almost perfect. I was not happy when they jettisoned it in favor of a cloistered committee.

Here's how the BCS would rank teams this week:

So, the top 4 are the same. And, the committee values the head to head between TAMU and Florida. No complaints here.

I understand the issue with Iowa St, but when you have played 4 games (2-2) against teams who the committee believe are top 25 worthy, vs 0 teams (Cincinnati), doesn’t schedule strength have to matter at some point?

Sure, schedule strength should count.

But schedule strength counts a lot more if you win the games. Last year, Texas A&M was 0-5 against top 10 teams and 8-0 against everyone else (including 8-5 Oklahoma State). Yet Texas A&M was unranked.

If you're 2-2 against teams ranked 11, 19, 20, and 22, then you should be ranked in the middle of those 4 opponents. Especially because the wins were very close, and one of the losses was by 3 scores at home.

Why is 2-2 against ranked teams better than 1-1 (like BYU, Louisiana, or Indiana)? And why is it better than 2-0 (like Coastal Carolina)?

1). Talking this year. This year is so crazy since there are few OOC games to go by, that you can’t compare to other years.
2). I was comparing Iowa St to Cincinnati, not other teams. But, since you brought up the other teams, here are the SOS rankings for each of them.
Iowa St 19
Cincinnati 77
Indiana 10
BYU 79
Coastal Carolina 78
Louisiana 53
So, while Iowa St is 2-2 against top 25 and CCU is 2-0, Iowa St clearly has played the tougher schedule.
3). I do think Indiana has some merit to be higher. I actually thought after the Ohio St game they would be credited with that performance, but it actually was the opposite as Ohio St was punished for the game being close.

I am not advocating for Iowa St at all, just saying there needs to be more going into rankings than just the team’s record.

(12-10-2020 02:47 PM)leofrog Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 02:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 12:13 PM)leofrog Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:40 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:10 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  The BCS did that. There was no committee.

The BCS formula was great. Almost perfect. I was not happy when they jettisoned it in favor of a cloistered committee.

Here's how the BCS would rank teams this week:

So, the top 4 are the same. And, the committee values the head to head between TAMU and Florida. No complaints here.

I understand the issue with Iowa St, but when you have played 4 games (2-2) against teams who the committee believe are top 25 worthy, vs 0 teams (Cincinnati), doesn’t schedule strength have to matter at some point?

Sure, schedule strength should count.

But schedule strength counts a lot more if you win the games. Last year, Texas A&M was 0-5 against top 10 teams and 8-0 against everyone else (including 8-5 Oklahoma State). Yet Texas A&M was unranked.

If you're 2-2 against teams ranked 11, 19, 20, and 22, then you should be ranked in the middle of those 4 opponents. Especially because the wins were very close, and one of the losses was by 3 scores at home.

Why is 2-2 against ranked teams better than 1-1 (like BYU, Louisiana, or Indiana)? And why is it better than 2-0 (like Coastal Carolina)?

1). Talking this year. This year is so crazy since there are few OOC games to go by, that you can’t compare to other years.
2). I was comparing Iowa St to Cincinnati, not other teams. But, since you brought up the other teams, here are the SOS rankings for each of them.
Iowa St 19
Cincinnati 77
Indiana 10
BYU 79
Coastal Carolina 78
Louisiana 53
So, while Iowa St is 2-2 against top 25 and CCU is 2-0, Iowa St clearly has played the tougher schedule.
3). I do think Indiana has some merit to be higher. I actually thought after the Ohio St game they would be credited with that performance, but it actually was the opposite as Ohio St was punished for the game being close.

I am not advocating for Iowa St at all, just saying there needs to be more going into rankings than just the team’s record.

Not buying some of these SOS calculations. IU has played 1 team with a winning record. They have not beat a team with a winning record. There is no way they have played the 10th best schedule.

(12-10-2020 02:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Why is 2-2 against ranked teams better than 1-1 (like BYU, Louisiana, or Indiana)? And why is it better than 2-0 (like Coastal Carolina)?

Also, why is 0-0 (Cincy) ranked ahead of 2-0 (Coastal)?

(12-10-2020 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 02:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Why is 2-2 against ranked teams better than 1-1 (like BYU, Louisiana, or Indiana)? And why is it better than 2-0 (like Coastal Carolina)?

Also, why is 0-0 (Cincy) ranked ahead of 2-0 (Coastal)?

What happened to your Wizard of Oz ranking system you touted last season so much?
#5 UC
#14 CC

This season you seem to be posting Sagarin.
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

(12-10-2020 03:20 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 02:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Why is 2-2 against ranked teams better than 1-1 (like BYU, Louisiana, or Indiana)? And why is it better than 2-0 (like Coastal Carolina)?

Also, why is 0-0 (Cincy) ranked ahead of 2-0 (Coastal)?

What happened to your Wizard of Oz ranking system you touted last season so much?
#5 UC
#14 CC

I've said for three months now that computer rankings are essentially meaningless this year, due to the lack of OOC games.

My comment was based on the CFP rankings.

I just want to see Notre Dame win the whole thing because I like the fact that Irish coach Brian Kelly bears a striking resemblance to Dropkick Murphys bassist/co-lead vocalist Ken Casey.

(12-10-2020 04:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I just want to see Notre Dame win the whole thing because I like the fact that Irish coach Brian Kelly bears a striking resemblance to Dropkick Murphys bassist/co-lead vocalist Ken Casey.

There's nobody I want to see win it. Maybe the title game will be covid'd out.

Alabama, Clemson and Ohio St. have become boring. Notre Dame, A&M and Florida I don't want to win it.

Iowa St. or Cincinnati? Don't think there is any reasonable way they get there.
Alabama would have to beat Florida. And also two out of Clemson getting destroyed by Notre Dame, Ohio St. to losing to Northwestern and A&M losing this week to Arkansas. Alabama winning is likely. The other 3 are each unlikely, so 2 out of 3 not going to happen.

(12-10-2020 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 02:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Why is 2-2 against ranked teams better than 1-1 (like BYU, Louisiana, or Indiana)? And why is it better than 2-0 (like Coastal Carolina)?

Also, why is 0-0 (Cincy) ranked ahead of 2-0 (Coastal)?

Because, as I pointed out, it is silly to think that "# of currently top-25 opponents is the most important thing." And that's pretty much the only metric that either of those teams has over Cincinnati.

But you already knew that

(12-10-2020 04:28 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 04:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I just want to see Notre Dame win the whole thing because I like the fact that Irish coach Brian Kelly bears a striking resemblance to Dropkick Murphys bassist/co-lead vocalist Ken Casey.

There's nobody I want to see win it. Maybe the title game will be covid'd out.

Alabama, Clemson and Ohio St. have become boring. Notre Dame, A&M and Florida I don't want to win it.

Iowa St. or Cincinnati? Don't think there is any reasonable way they get there.
Alabama would have to beat Florida. And also two out of Clemson getting destroyed by Notre Dame, Ohio St. to losing to Northwestern and A&M losing this week to Arkansas. Alabama winning is likely. The other 3 are each unlikely, so 2 out of 3 not going to happen.

Folks This Is Classic Horn Schadenfreude!

But your perspective is consistent in these matters, and you are appreciated!

(12-10-2020 05:09 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 03:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 02:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Why is 2-2 against ranked teams better than 1-1 (like BYU, Louisiana, or Indiana)? And why is it better than 2-0 (like Coastal Carolina)?

Also, why is 0-0 (Cincy) ranked ahead of 2-0 (Coastal)?

Because, as I pointed out, it is silly to think that "# of currently top-25 opponents is the most important thing." And that's pretty much the only metric that either of those teams has over Cincinnati.

But you already knew that

Well then please enlightenment me about what Cincy has over Coastal. I can think of things that typically come in to play that it doesn't:

Best Wins (ranked)? ..... Coastal

More Wins? ..... Coastal 10 to 8

Worse Loss? ....... Neither, as neither has lost

So what does Cincy have over Coastal? Nothing I can think of, other than an inchoate feeling that somehow its other six wins are better than Coastal's next six? That beating (tossing out Army and UCF as Cincy's best two wins as we've already compared them to Coastal's two best) SMU, Houston, Memphis, USF, ECU and Austin Peay is better than beating App State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Troy, Kansas, and Ark State (tossing out their two worst, Campbell and Texas State to equalize)?

Those look like very similar rosters of six teams to me. SMU and Memphis are pretty good, but so are App State and Georgia Southern. The rest looks like a wash - Austin Peay, (sadly) USF and ECU are pretty putrid and so are Troy, Kansas and Ark State.

And that's supposed to not only trump Coastal having more wins and the two best wins, and by 5-6 ranking spots?

Beggars belief, IMO.

Florida lost. Time to update the scenarios. We know who the Top 4 are, Alabama is a lock, and A&M is a solid #5.

If Ohio State loses, I’m thinking A&M gets in. If Alabama loses, they likely stay above A&M. If Clemson loses I think they are done; no way they get a third crack at ND. If Notre Dame loses... tough call, they may stay above A&M.

If Ohio State AND Clemson lose, might we see Cincinnati? UC and A&M both have games next week too, so maybe Florida has a chance again. The ISU/OU winner is the only other team I could see leaping into the playoff (sorry CCU and USC... and IU and NWU).

Future Ranks:
1-4: current Top 4 with wins
5: Alabama with a loss
6 or 7: Notre Dame with a loss
6 or 7: Texas A&M with a win
8: Cincinnati with a win
9: Florida with a win
10-12: Some order of: Big 12 Champ, Clemson with a loss, Ohio State with a loss
13+: Northwestern, Indiana, USC, CCU, Georgia, with wins

My guesses:

I think Alabama is in regardless. That’s one.
I think Notre Dame is in regardless. That’s two.

Clemson is in with a win. Possible three.
Ohio St is in with a win. Possible four.

Clemson or Ohio St lose, Texas A&M is in.
Clemson and Ohio St both lose, Texas A&M is in plus:
Option #1 - Iowa St is in with a win over Oklahoma
Option #2 - Cincinnati is in with a win over Tulsa and Iowa St loss
Option #3 - Clemson is in with losses by Iowa St, Cincinnati, & Florida
Option #4 - Florida is in with a win over Alabama and Iowa St & Cincinnati losses

I think this is how it plays out:

Clemson and Ohio St win their respective conference championship games. As do Oklahoma, USC, Alabama, Cincinnati, and Coastal Carolina.

Sugar Bowl: #1 Alabama vs #4 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: #2 Ohio St vs #3 Clemson
National Championship: #1 Alabama vs #3 Clemson

Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs Georgia
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs Indiana
Peach Bowl: Cincinnati vs Coastal Carolina

————

I don’t think an undefeated Coastal Carolina gets left out, especially if a few teams ahead of them lose - but the committee may very well rank them very conservatively. I do think the Peach Bowl gets the two non-power schools because the other 3 matchups make better TV.

(12-10-2020 11:19 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  More accurately, the pollsters did that. The BCS computers wanted Oklahoma St.

But the whole problem with the BCS was they could only pick 2. Picking 4 has saved the committee from backlash.

My point. Harris and coaches

(12-10-2020 11:40 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:10 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 11:01 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-10-2020 10:49 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Regardless of the scores, a lot depends on how the games are played and how the teams look. Notre Dame will still get into the CFP with a loss to Clemson - but it has to be close and not an infamous ND blowout. If it is a blowout, that would definitely lead to a opening for someone to not only leapfrog, but also kick out ND entirely. I cannot imagine the Alabama losing or getting blown out to Florida, but the same idea still applies. Alabama has a little more wiggle room in that department since is has convincing/dominating wins against A&M and Georgia. A&M cannot get in with Alabama out, IMO.

You know, on second thought, this unique virus situation creates a possible caveat to my claim that no team that gets blown out in their CCG will make the playoffs. The exception would be if Notre Dame or Alabama is forced to play their CCG with heavy losses due to the virus, lots of key guys can't suit up because of virus protocols but still enough to go ahead with the game.

If that's the scenario, then I think that excuse could get them in despite a blowout loss.

The committee is talking about how impressed they were with Ohio St. when they blew out a bad Michigan ST. team with 3 O line starters out. But then they are easily impressed if its Ohio St. or Alabama.

Oklahoma St. in 2011 lost a close game on the road to Iowa St. a couple days after a plane crash killed several members of the OSU athletic deparment. The whole university was in shock. Committee decided Alabama deserved another shot vs. LSU. ESPN acted like Oklahoma St. didn't even exist.

The BCS did that. There was no committee.

The BCS formula was great. Almost perfect. I was not happy when they jettisoned it in favor of a cloistered committee.

Here's how the BCS would rank teams this week:

I didn't trust the BCS computers. Either they never told you their formulas or they did and they were incredibly complicated so how did you know they were biased in favor of certain teams?

Big 12 loser is out... so UC and UCC are in if they take care of business. Does UNC have another game next weekend? Maybe you can take them but the FSU loss kills them.

(12-10-2020 04:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I just want to see Notre Dame win the whole thing because I like the fact that Irish coach Brian Kelly bears a striking resemblance to Dropkick Murphys bassist/co-lead vocalist Ken Casey.

That works for me.