(12-16-2020 06:35 AM)andy98 Wrote:  Ok, so I'm going to update my playoff chaos scenario. What if....

Florida beats Alabama
Clemson beats Notre Dame
Northwestern beats Ohio State
Texas A&M beats Tennessee
Oklahoma beats Iowa State
USC goes undefeated
Cincinnati goes undefeated
Coastal Carolina goes undefeated
San Jose State goes undefeated
Buffalo goes undefeated

Which four teams go to the playoff?

Alabama and Notre Dame are as closed to locks as you can get. If Clemson wins, they’re in. If Ohio St loses and Texas A&M wins, Texas A&M is in.

Given tie-ins and matchups, the bowls would likely be:

CFP
Sugar Bowl: #1 Clemson vs #4 Texas A&M
Rose Bowl: #2 Alabama vs #3 Notre Dame

NY6
Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs Florida
Cotton Bowl: Northwestern vs Cincinnati
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs Ohio St
Peach Bowl: Georgia vs Oklahoma

(12-16-2020 06:35 AM)andy98 Wrote:  Ok, so I'm going to update my playoff chaos scenario. What if....

Florida beats Alabama
Clemson beats Notre Dame
Northwestern beats Ohio State
Texas A&M beats Tennessee
Oklahoma beats Iowa State
USC goes undefeated
Cincinnati goes undefeated
Coastal Carolina goes undefeated
San Jose State goes undefeated
Buffalo goes undefeated

Which four teams go to the playoff?

1) Florida and Clemson are in.

2) Alabama and ND are in unless they got gob-smacked like Miami did last week. If either is gob-smacked, TAMU is in instead of them. If *both* got gob-smacked, Alabama remains in as well.

(12-16-2020 10:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Sun Belt Conference speaking out:

Wrong thread? This is a playoff thread. Anyways CC and Louisiana are ranked ahead of Tulsa and is there any computer formula that has CC ahead of Cincy.

(12-16-2020 11:01 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Wrong thread? This is a playoff thread. Anyways CC and Louisiana are ranked ahead of Tulsa and is there any computer formula that has CC ahead of Cincy.

Good point about the thread, so I deleted it and moved it to the "rankings" thread.

Anyway, computers are useless because they do not have the data points. It is mystifying as to why Cincy is ranked ahead of Coastal. Coastal has two better wins and now a whopping three more games in the books.

IMO, it is the same kind of bias that has Ohio State ranked ahead of both, but nobody minds when a bias works in their favor, LOL.

(12-16-2020 11:04 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-16-2020 11:01 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Wrong thread? This is a playoff thread. Anyways CC and Louisiana are ranked ahead of Tulsa and is there any computer formula that has CC ahead of Cincy.

Good point about the thread, so I deleted it and moved it to the "rankings" thread.

Anyway, computers are useless because they do not have the data points. It is mystifying as to why Cincy is ranked ahead of Coastal. Coastal has two better wins and now a whopping three more games in the books.

IMO, it is the same kind of bias that has Ohio State ranked ahead of both, but nobody minds when a bias works in their favor, LOL.

Look at the scores. Other than UCF, Cincinnati has been dominating teams. Their average margin of victory is 26 points. Their 2nd closest win was 14 over Army. Half of CCU's games have been 2 scores or less with Troy requiring a last minute comeback. I haven't seen more than a few minutes of Cincinnati play, but their scores (and against a lot of solid teams) indicate they are a better team.

(12-16-2020 02:40 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-16-2020 11:04 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-16-2020 11:01 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Wrong thread? This is a playoff thread. Anyways CC and Louisiana are ranked ahead of Tulsa and is there any computer formula that has CC ahead of Cincy.

Good point about the thread, so I deleted it and moved it to the "rankings" thread.

Anyway, computers are useless because they do not have the data points. It is mystifying as to why Cincy is ranked ahead of Coastal. Coastal has two better wins and now a whopping three more games in the books.

IMO, it is the same kind of bias that has Ohio State ranked ahead of both, but nobody minds when a bias works in their favor, LOL.

Look at the scores. Other than UCF, Cincinnati has been dominating teams. Their average margin of victory is 26 points. Their 2nd closest win was 14 over Army. Half of CCU's games have been 2 scores or less with Troy requiring a last minute comeback. I haven't seen more than a few minutes of Cincinnati play, but their scores (and against a lot of solid teams) indicate they are a better team.

I'm not that impressed with the scores. Beating Army 24-10? Beating my sorry USF 28-7? Squeaking by UCF?

Cincy got a lot of credit for big MOVs over Memphis, Houston and SMU, but those teams turned out to not be as good as we thought. When Army is your best win, an Army team that was flattened even worse by Tulane, that's not saying much.

IMO, on the merits, Coastal has the better resume. Three more games played and won and two wins against ranked teams versus none. The only argument to be made for Cincy is the "Eye Test Juggernaut" claim, and I just do not come close to seeing it.

But seemingly, some do. Go figure.

As I've posted multiple times, and as a long-time Cincinnati fan ...

Cincy and Coastal are both very good teams, deserving of being ranked in the roughly No. 7 to No. 12 slots. Neither is better, nor worse, than the other.

We all know the reason UC is ranked higher. It plays in the American, a league that by the collective metrics of football, academics, enrollments, baseball, history, basketball, locations and intangibles ... may as well be the SEC compared to the Sun Belt. So it's perception — and the AAC has a much more positive perception than the Belt in the overall scope of college conferences. And I post that while having strong respect for the Sun Belt.

Now this is football only so that "big picture view" is not fair to Coastal, which is every bit as good in football this season as UC. In short, the American/Cincy is benefiting from "perception bias" vis-a-vis the Sun Belt/CCU.

If Bill Dazzle is having the most successful calendar year of his life with the ladies yet he has to (for some stunning reason) eventually compete with Brad Pitt for the hands of these lovelies toward the end of that year, Dazzle becomes the CCU to Pitt's Cincy.

(12-16-2020 06:55 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The more intriguing scenario is A&M losing as well, but in the more probable scenario of say Clemson losing OR OSU losing, A&M appears to have the inside track. However, ISU is actually in a position to pull a 2014 OSU and vault from 6 to 4. Can they beat OU by three or four scores? We’ve seen crazier things before, but that’s how it’s been set up. A&M should have scheduled UGa or someone comparable. AAC and Aresco should have suspended the AAC CCG and given UC a worthwhile opponent this week. Now ISU may have a shot with two losses if Clemson and OSU fall out.

Great post. I think ISU may even have a shot in the scenario where Notre Dame and Ohio State lose. The #4 spot would be vs. ‘Bama and the committee may want to avoid both the rematch and sending teams from only 2 conferences.

I guess Florida has dibs after ISU, then some order of Cincy, Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State.

I'd guess the matchups are:
Sugar Alabama vs ND/Clemson loser
Rose ND/Clemson winner vs Ohio St

Cotton Iowa St/Oklahoma winner vs Indiana
Orange North Carolina vs Texas A&M(highest ranked SEC team)
Fiesta Iowa St/Oklahoma loser vs USC/Oregon winner
Sugar Florida vs Cincy

No chance the Cotton takes Cincy as in 2 years they have to take G5 rep. It's rotated 1 every 3 years.

I think the interesting thing would be if Ohio St loses and Texas A&M wins. If Clemson loses- I think A&M moves up to 3 and Ohio St remains at 4. So Alabama/Ohio St and Notre Dame/Texas A&M. If Clemson wins- it's Alabama/Notre Dame and Clemson/Ohio St.

If Alabama loses, things get interesting, especially if Clemson loses...
You'd have-
1 Notre Dame for sure
Alabama 1 loss
Clemson 2 losses
Florida 2 losses but SEC champs
Ohio St 0 or 1 loss

I'd kind of guess we'd see if OSU won-
1 Notre Dame vs 4 Alabama
2 Ohio St vs 3 Florida

(12-16-2020 10:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd guess the matchups are:
Sugar Alabama vs ND/Clemson loser
Rose ND/Clemson winner vs Ohio St

Cotton Iowa St/Oklahoma winner vs Indiana
Orange North Carolina vs Texas A&M(highest ranked SEC team)
Fiesta Iowa St/Oklahoma loser vs USC/Oregon winner
Sugar Florida vs Cincy

You think Georgia, at #8 right now, is going to fall out of the NY6? In favor of say the Iowa State/Oklahoma loser or Indiana?

(12-16-2020 10:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-16-2020 10:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd guess the matchups are:
Sugar Alabama vs ND/Clemson loser
Rose ND/Clemson winner vs Ohio St

Cotton Iowa St/Oklahoma winner vs Indiana
Orange North Carolina vs Texas A&M(highest ranked SEC team)
Fiesta Iowa St/Oklahoma loser vs USC/Oregon winner
Sugar Florida vs Cincy

You think Georgia, at #8 right now, is going to fall out of the NY6? In favor of say the Iowa State/Oklahoma loser or Indiana?

No, messed up. I'd guess it'd be Indiana almost certainly falling out.

So something like
Cotton Iowa St/Oklahoma winner vs Florida
Orange North Carolina vs Texas A&M
Fiesta Iowa St/Oklahoma loser vs USC/Oregon winner
Peach Georgia vs Cincy

(12-16-2020 11:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-16-2020 10:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  You think Georgia, at #8 right now, is going to fall out of the NY6? In favor of say the Iowa State/Oklahoma loser or Indiana?

No, messed up. I'd guess it'd be Indiana almost certainly falling out.

So something like
Cotton Iowa St/Oklahoma winner vs Florida
Orange North Carolina vs Texas A&M
Fiesta Iowa St/Oklahoma loser vs USC/Oregon winner
Peach Georgia vs Cincy

I think Indiana stays above a 3-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 Champ likely does not go to (stay in) Arlington, for the same reason Florida will not go to/stay in Atlanta. I could see a "deal" being made to send A&M to the Cotton and Florida to the Orange to keep teams local.

(12-17-2020 08:40 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-16-2020 11:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-16-2020 10:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  You think Georgia, at #8 right now, is going to fall out of the NY6? In favor of say the Iowa State/Oklahoma loser or Indiana?

No, messed up. I'd guess it'd be Indiana almost certainly falling out.

So something like
Cotton Iowa St/Oklahoma winner vs Florida
Orange North Carolina vs Texas A&M
Fiesta Iowa St/Oklahoma loser vs USC/Oregon winner
Peach Georgia vs Cincy

I think Indiana stays above a 3-loss Big 12 team. The Big 12 Champ likely does not go to (stay in) Arlington, for the same reason Florida will not go to/stay in Atlanta. I could see a "deal" being made to send A&M to the Cotton and Florida to the Orange to keep teams local.

especially if Oklahoma beats #6 Iowa St Iowa St isn't falling behind #11 Indiana who isn't playing and only has 7 games.

I could see your deal happening though.

I think 18 schools have at least an outside shot at playing in a NY6/CFP bowl. Definitions for this post: CFP = semifinals; NY6 = non-CFP NY6 bowls.

CFP Locks: Alabama, Notre Dame
NY6 Locks: Georgia
CFP if win CCG / NY6 if lose CCG: Clemson, Ohio St
NY6 if win CCG / out if lose CCG: Cincinnati*, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oregon, USC
CFP if win game plus help / NY6 otherwise: Florida&, Iowa St^, Texas A&M+
NY6 if win game plus help / out otherwise: Coastal Carolina, UL Lafayette, Tulsa#
NY6 with help / out otherwise: Indiana$, North Carolina%

* Cincinnati has a slim chance to make the CFP
& Florida needs to win plus at least 3 of the following to lose: Clemson, Iowa St, Ohio St, Texas A&M
^ Iowa St needs to win plus at least 2 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St, Texas A&M
+ Texas A&M needs to win plus at least 1 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St
# If Tulsa "59-0"s Cincinnati and UL Lafayette wins a sloppy close game, Tulsa might get the higher ranking over UL Lafayette
$ Indiana needs at least one (maybe two) team to lose from this list: Clemson, Florida, Oklahoma
% North Carolina needs Clemson to win the CCG

(12-17-2020 02:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I think 18 schools have at least an outside shot at playing in a NY6/CFP bowl. Definitions for this post: CFP = semifinals; NY6 = non-CFP NY6 bowls.

CFP Locks: Alabama, Notre Dame
NY6 Locks: Georgia
CFP if win CCG / NY6 if lose CCG: Clemson, Ohio St
NY6 if win CCG / out if lose CCG: Cincinnati*, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oregon, USC
CFP if win game plus help / NY6 otherwise: Florida&, Iowa St^, Texas A&M+
NY6 if win game plus help / out otherwise: Coastal Carolina, UL Lafayette, Tulsa#
NY6 with help / out otherwise: Indiana$, North Carolina%

* Cincinnati has a slim chance to make the CFP
& Florida needs to win plus at least 3 of the following to lose: Clemson, Iowa St, Ohio St, Texas A&M
^ Iowa St needs to win plus at least 2 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St, Texas A&M
+ Texas A&M needs to win plus at least 1 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St
# If Tulsa "59-0"s Cincinnati and UL Lafayette wins a sloppy close game, Tulsa might get the higher ranking over UL Lafayette
$ Indiana needs at least one (maybe two) team to lose from this list: Clemson, Florida, Oklahoma
% North Carolina needs Clemson to win the CCG

lets go from the top-
Florida is in the playoffs if they beat Alabama and if Clemson or Ohio St loses. Iowa St is meaningless in this.
Iowa St would need Clemson and Ohio St to both lose to make the playoff. And frankly maybe Florida As well.
Indiana- Clemson and Florida are utterly meaningless to them. Those 2 are not dropping behind Indiana in the CFP ratings with losses to top 2 teams. They are HUGE Iowa St fans right now.

(12-17-2020 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 02:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I think 18 schools have at least an outside shot at playing in a NY6/CFP bowl. Definitions for this post: CFP = semifinals; NY6 = non-CFP NY6 bowls.

CFP Locks: Alabama, Notre Dame
NY6 Locks: Georgia
CFP if win CCG / NY6 if lose CCG: Clemson, Ohio St
NY6 if win CCG / out if lose CCG: Cincinnati*, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oregon, USC
CFP if win game plus help / NY6 otherwise: Florida&, Iowa St^, Texas A&M+
NY6 if win game plus help / out otherwise: Coastal Carolina, UL Lafayette, Tulsa#
NY6 with help / out otherwise: Indiana$, North Carolina%

* Cincinnati has a slim chance to make the CFP
& Florida needs to win plus at least 3 of the following to lose: Clemson, Iowa St, Ohio St, Texas A&M
^ Iowa St needs to win plus at least 2 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St, Texas A&M
+ Texas A&M needs to win plus at least 1 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St
# If Tulsa "59-0"s Cincinnati and UL Lafayette wins a sloppy close game, Tulsa might get the higher ranking over UL Lafayette
$ Indiana needs at least one (maybe two) team to lose from this list: Clemson, Florida, Oklahoma
% North Carolina needs Clemson to win the CCG

lets go from the top-
Florida is in the playoffs if they beat Alabama and if Clemson or Ohio St loses. Iowa St is meaningless in this.
Iowa St would need Clemson and Ohio St to both lose to make the playoff. And frankly maybe Florida As well.
Indiana- Clemson and Florida are utterly meaningless to them. Those 2 are not dropping behind Indiana in the CFP ratings with losses to top 2 teams. They are HUGE Iowa St fans right now.

Perhaps I'm too bear-ish with Florida, I'll give you that. I think we basically agree on Iowa St. I think there's a misunderstanding on why Indiana cares about Clemson and Florida. If Florida gets absolutely pummeled, I could see a slight chance that drop a spot behind Indiana but perhaps not. However, Clemson losing assuredly knocks North Carolina out of a NY6 bowl which benefits Indiana since North Carolina sits behind Indiana.

(12-17-2020 02:53 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 02:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I think 18 schools have at least an outside shot at playing in a NY6/CFP bowl. Definitions for this post: CFP = semifinals; NY6 = non-CFP NY6 bowls.

CFP Locks: Alabama, Notre Dame
NY6 Locks: Georgia
CFP if win CCG / NY6 if lose CCG: Clemson, Ohio St
NY6 if win CCG / out if lose CCG: Cincinnati*, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oregon, USC
CFP if win game plus help / NY6 otherwise: Florida&, Iowa St^, Texas A&M+
NY6 if win game plus help / out otherwise: Coastal Carolina, UL Lafayette, Tulsa#
NY6 with help / out otherwise: Indiana$, North Carolina%

* Cincinnati has a slim chance to make the CFP
& Florida needs to win plus at least 3 of the following to lose: Clemson, Iowa St, Ohio St, Texas A&M
^ Iowa St needs to win plus at least 2 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St, Texas A&M
+ Texas A&M needs to win plus at least 1 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St
# If Tulsa "59-0"s Cincinnati and UL Lafayette wins a sloppy close game, Tulsa might get the higher ranking over UL Lafayette
$ Indiana needs at least one (maybe two) team to lose from this list: Clemson, Florida, Oklahoma
% North Carolina needs Clemson to win the CCG

lets go from the top-
Florida is in the playoffs if they beat Alabama and if Clemson or Ohio St loses. Iowa St is meaningless in this.
Iowa St would need Clemson and Ohio St to both lose to make the playoff. And frankly maybe Florida As well.
Indiana- Clemson and Florida are utterly meaningless to them. Those 2 are not dropping behind Indiana in the CFP ratings with losses to top 2 teams. They are HUGE Iowa St fans right now.

Perhaps I'm too bear-ish with Florida, I'll give you that. I think we basically agree on Iowa St. I think there's a misunderstanding on why Indiana cares about Clemson and Florida. If Florida gets absolutely pummeled, I could see a slight chance that drop a spot behind Indiana but perhaps not. However, Clemson losing assuredly knocks North Carolina out of a NY6 bowl which benefits Indiana since North Carolina sits behind Indiana.

I wouldn't be so sure of your last statement. Clemson loses a close game to Notre Dame- they could easily get in the top 4 still if either Ohio St or Florida loses.

(12-17-2020 03:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 02:53 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 02:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-17-2020 02:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I think 18 schools have at least an outside shot at playing in a NY6/CFP bowl. Definitions for this post: CFP = semifinals; NY6 = non-CFP NY6 bowls.

CFP Locks: Alabama, Notre Dame
NY6 Locks: Georgia
CFP if win CCG / NY6 if lose CCG: Clemson, Ohio St
NY6 if win CCG / out if lose CCG: Cincinnati*, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Oregon, USC
CFP if win game plus help / NY6 otherwise: Florida&, Iowa St^, Texas A&M+
NY6 if win game plus help / out otherwise: Coastal Carolina, UL Lafayette, Tulsa#
NY6 with help / out otherwise: Indiana$, North Carolina%

* Cincinnati has a slim chance to make the CFP
& Florida needs to win plus at least 3 of the following to lose: Clemson, Iowa St, Ohio St, Texas A&M
^ Iowa St needs to win plus at least 2 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St, Texas A&M
+ Texas A&M needs to win plus at least 1 of the following to lose: Clemson, Ohio St
# If Tulsa "59-0"s Cincinnati and UL Lafayette wins a sloppy close game, Tulsa might get the higher ranking over UL Lafayette
$ Indiana needs at least one (maybe two) team to lose from this list: Clemson, Florida, Oklahoma
% North Carolina needs Clemson to win the CCG

lets go from the top-
Florida is in the playoffs if they beat Alabama and if Clemson or Ohio St loses. Iowa St is meaningless in this.
Iowa St would need Clemson and Ohio St to both lose to make the playoff. And frankly maybe Florida As well.
Indiana- Clemson and Florida are utterly meaningless to them. Those 2 are not dropping behind Indiana in the CFP ratings with losses to top 2 teams. They are HUGE Iowa St fans right now.

Perhaps I'm too bear-ish with Florida, I'll give you that. I think we basically agree on Iowa St. I think there's a misunderstanding on why Indiana cares about Clemson and Florida. If Florida gets absolutely pummeled, I could see a slight chance that drop a spot behind Indiana but perhaps not. However, Clemson losing assuredly knocks North Carolina out of a NY6 bowl which benefits Indiana since North Carolina sits behind Indiana.

I wouldn't be so sure of your last statement. Clemson loses a close game to Notre Dame- they could easily get in the top 4 still if either Ohio St or Florida loses.

I guess we gotta let it play out