CCG Scenarios

This is not exhaustive, just giving a sounding on who is leading and what is needed for the favorites to fall. Please add and correct because in 2020 this is no longer an exact science

ACC
Clemson and Notre Dame are likely in.
Miami (vs. WF and UNC) and UNC (vs. ND and Miami) need to win out and have either:
(a) Clemson (vs. Pitt/VT/FSU) lose once more, OR
(b) Notre Dame (vs. UNC/Syr/WF) lose twice more

SEC
Alabama and Florida are likely in
Texas A&M needs to win out and have Alabama lose to 2 of Aub/Ark/LSU
Georgia needs to win out and have Florida lose to 2 of UT/UK/LSU

Big 12
Oklahoma and Iowa State/Texas control their own destinies
OK State needs to win out and have 2 of the other 3 lose once more

American
Not sure exactly, but fairly certain Cincinnati has clinched. They have head-to-head against 3/4 of the other 2-loss teams and Navy likely won't pass them in any rankings if they win out.

Tulsa could lose 2 more; they play Houston, Navy, and Cincinnati. Houston and Navy only have 2 losses and would then win a potential tie-breaker; Memphis did not play Tulsa and at 2-losses would likely be higher ranked. I'll wait a week before examining multi-team tie-breakers at 2 losses.

Northwestern/Ohio St Big Ten Championship basically a lock with Wisconsin’s 3rd cancellation.

Mountain West
Boise St, Nevada, and San Jose St control their destinies with 0 conference losses as of today. Boise St and Nevada both play San Jose St.

Fresno St has 1 conference loss and plays both Nevada and San Jose St. The Bulldogs really need to win out to have a chance.

(11-24-2020 10:03 PM)Crayton Wrote:  CCG Scenarios

SEC
Alabama and Florida are likely in
Texas A&M needs to win out and have Alabama lose to 2 of Aub/Ark/LSU
Georgia needs to win out and have Florida lose to 2 of UT/UK/LSU

And currently Alabama isn't even scheduled to play LSU it's going to be pretty hard for Alabama to lose 2 games. Of course Texas A&M can't "win out" either since they aren't scheduled to play Mississippi either. I guess in the SEC West you go with 9 games even though the divisional games aren't the same (Alabama misses LSU, Texas A&M misses Mississippi).

After the OSU-Illinois cancellation, the Big Ten East still belongs to Ohio State unless either game against MSU or UM game is cancelled (or they lose both games). Not sure if OSU can "forfeit" one of those games to avoid "playing" too few games.

If either of those above scenarios happen then today's Indiana-Maryland winner is in the driver seat (yes, not MSU, UM, or PSU; Rutgers is still Rutgers).

ISU's win yesterday ALMOST cinches a CCG berth. Theoretically they could finish in a 3-way tie with OU and OSU. Loser of that tie (not the winner) would be the team with the best 2nd conference loss (WVU, KSU, or Texas; all currently 4-3 and tied for 4th place). The other 2 teams would go to Arlington.

SUN BELT:

Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana all but set.

CUSA

Marshall has two games left: Rice at home and FIU on the road. I seriously doubt either gets played but Marshall would still qualify based on the “not less than an average of two less conference games “ that the league has now released. (They are doing this to save face imho. Can you imagine how stupid the league would look for an undefeated top 20 team who beat the second place team to be shut out of the CCG?)

The west is wide open. Currently, it’s UAB in the drivers seat, but UTSA and LaTech are still alive.

(11-28-2020 10:07 AM)balanced_view Wrote:  SUN BELT:

Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana all but set.

Yep, Coastal would have to lose to both Texas State and Troy and App State would have to run the table against Troy, Louisiana, and @Georgia Southern (not sure which is more likely).

Alternatively, if Troy beats both App State and Coastal along with beating rival USA, they too would finish with 2 losses with a final conference game against ULM scheduled for 12/19. Not sure the Sun Belt has released 2020 tie-breakers, but Troy would have head-to-head over Coastal (assuming CCU loses to TXST today), but Coastal would have the winning percentage due to playing 1 more game; if procedures followed are similar to other conferences, Troy would then get in.

All-in-all, a Coastal win today cinches both a CCG appearance AND home game vs. Louisiana.

American
Cincinnati 'sgotta have this clinched if they truly have only 1 game remaining. Tulsa could fall out of the title game with losses to Cincy and Navy and if Memphis beats Tulane and Houston. Technically the teams would be tied, but I think Memphis's extra conference win seals the deal.

Atlantic Coast
Notre Dame has virtually clinched; they'd need to lose to Wake AND Syracuse AND have both Clemson and Miami win out to miss out on Charlotte. Miami's only other way in is to beat UNC and have Clemson lose to Virginia Tech.

Big 12
With KSU's loss today, ISU's only way of missing the CCG is a 3-way tie with OU and OSU at 7-2. Oklahoma controls their destiny while OK State needs to win-out and have the Sooners drop 1 more. With 3 losses and the Oklahoma schools having only 5 wins, both Texas and West Virginia have a shot. Oh, and a 5- or 6-team pile-up at 5-4 is still possible (West Virginia wins those [unless Texas beats KSU, in which case Oklahoma wins]). Gotta love the Big 12.

Big Ten-East
Ohio State needs to play both Michigan schools and beat at least 1. Indiana is waiting in the wings if that doesn't happen. Maryland is still alive if Indiana loses to Wisconsin and Purdue and the Terrapins defeat Michigan and Rutgers (again, if Ohio State fails to secure the division).

Big Ten-West
Northwestern must defeat either Minnesota or Illinois to make in to Indy. If they lose both and Iowa sweeps Illinois and Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes are in. And... both Minnesota and Illinois are still alive, but they'll need lots of help.

Conference USA
Help. Lots of missing games and missing guidance. Marshall may just wait to see if a vacancy in Detroit opens up at the last moment. I hear Buffalo is looking great.

Mid American
Next week's Buffalo-Ohio game should determine the East (though Miami and Kent St are still alive). The following week, Ball St-WMU should do the same for the West (CMU and, maybe, Toledo are also still alive).

Mountain West
The 12/12 date between Nevada and San Jose State should eliminate one, with the winner playing Boise State. Fresno State has a decent shot if they win out against Nevada and New Mexico; they would then need either San Jose St (vs. Hawaii & Nevada) or Boise St (vs. UNLV) to drop a game, and maybe some help (next tiebreaker is "a composite average of selected computer rankings").

Pac-12
USC and Colorado can both finish undefeated in the South with the winner selected by CFP Ranking (ie. USC). The 12/12 Oregon-Washington game should determine the North. Theoretically, Washington and Oregon could both finish with 2 losses. This opens the door for 1-1 Wazzu (assuming enough total conference games are cancelled) or even Oregon St (who would win the tie-breakers at 2 losses). It's all still rather complicated.

SEC
It's a 99% chance of Florida vs. Alabama. Georgia needs to win against Vanderbilt and Missouri and have Florida lose to Tennessee and LSU. Texas A&M needs to win against Auburn and Tennessee and have Alabama lose to LSU and Arkansas.

Sun Belt
God bless 'em. Louisiana will be playing @ Coastal Carolina 12/19.

With all the cancellations, its pretty hard to guess any of the division champions and the tiebreaks. with many teams not playing each other, are really going to be convoluted. Pac 12 and MWC and MAC could a total mess.

Sun Belt IS set. SEC should be easy. Big 12 may be complicated, but they haven't had many cancellations, so it should be clear. Rest, not so certain.

(11-29-2020 01:10 AM)Crayton Wrote:  American
Cincinnati 'sgotta have this clinched if they truly have only 1 game remaining. Tulsa could fall out of the title game with losses to Cincy and Navy and if Memphis beats Tulane and Houston. Technically the teams would be tied, but I think Memphis's extra conference win seals the deal.

Atlantic Coast
Notre Dame has virtually clinched; they'd need to lose to Wake AND Syracuse AND have both Clemson and Miami win out to miss out on Charlotte. Miami's only other way in is to beat UNC and have Clemson lose to Virginia Tech.

Big 12
With KSU's loss today, ISU's only way of missing the CCG is a 3-way tie with OU and OSU at 7-2. Oklahoma controls their destiny while OK State needs to win-out and have the Sooners drop 1 more. With 3 losses and the Oklahoma schools having only 5 wins, both Texas and West Virginia have a shot. Oh, and a 5- or 6-team pile-up at 5-4 is still possible (West Virginia wins those [unless Texas beats KSU, in which case Oklahoma wins]). Gotta love the Big 12.

Big Ten-East
Ohio State needs to play both Michigan schools and beat at least 1. Indiana is waiting in the wings if that doesn't happen. Maryland is still alive if Indiana loses to Wisconsin and Purdue and the Terrapins defeat Michigan and Rutgers (again, if Ohio State fails to secure the division).

Big Ten-West
Northwestern must defeat either Minnesota or Illinois to make in to Indy. If they lose both and Iowa sweeps Illinois and Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes are in. And... both Minnesota and Illinois are still alive, but they'll need lots of help.

Conference USA
Help. Lots of missing games and missing guidance. Marshall may just wait to see if a vacancy in Detroit opens up at the last moment. I hear Buffalo is looking great.

Mid American
Next week's Buffalo-Ohio game should determine the East (though Miami and Kent St are still alive). The following week, Ball St-WMU should do the same for the West (CMU and, maybe, Toledo are also still alive).

Mountain West
The 12/12 date between Nevada and San Jose State should eliminate one, with the winner playing Boise State. Fresno State has a decent shot if they win out against Nevada and New Mexico; they would then need either San Jose St (vs. Hawaii & Nevada) or Boise St (vs. UNLV) to drop a game, and maybe some help (next tiebreaker is "a composite average of selected computer rankings").

Pac-12
USC and Colorado can both finish undefeated in the South with the winner selected by CFP Ranking (ie. USC). The 12/12 Oregon-Washington game should determine the North. Theoretically, Washington and Oregon could both finish with 2 losses. This opens the door for 1-1 Wazzu (assuming enough total conference games are cancelled) or even Oregon St (who would win the tie-breakers at 2 losses). It's all still rather complicated.

SEC
It's a 99% chance of Florida vs. Alabama. Georgia needs to win against Vanderbilt and Missouri and have Florida lose to Tennessee and LSU. Texas A&M needs to win against Auburn and Tennessee and have Alabama lose to LSU and Arkansas.

Sun Belt
God bless 'em. Louisiana will be playing @ Coastal Carolina 12/19.

XII: one true champion!

We aren’t going to friggin Detroit.

(11-24-2020 11:48 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Mountain West
Boise St, Nevada, and San Jose St control their destinies with 0 conference losses as of today. Boise St and Nevada both play San Jose St.

Fresno St has 1 conference loss and plays both Nevada and San Jose St. The Bulldogs really need to win out to have a chance.

Thanks but no one is interested in MWC and fake Boise State allegiance.

PAC-12 North comes down to Oregon-Washington. But... my reading is that Stanford has a shot. If Oregon and Stanford win, the top of the North looks like:

4-2 Oregon
3-2 Washington
3-2 Stanford

The three teams are 1-1 against each other. Washington State can finish 2-2, but needed to be within 1 win of the best team to be considered “tied”. The next tie-breaker is division record. Stanford is the only team with a single division loss, and therefore would win.

Right?

(11-29-2020 07:36 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(11-24-2020 11:48 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Mountain West
Boise St, Nevada, and San Jose St control their destinies with 0 conference losses as of today. Boise St and Nevada both play San Jose St.

Fresno St has 1 conference loss and plays both Nevada and San Jose St. The Bulldogs really need to win out to have a chance.

Thanks but no one is interested in MWC and fake Boise State allegiance.

Lol, ok?

(12-07-2020 08:49 PM)Crayton Wrote:  PAC-12 North comes down to Oregon-Washington. But... my reading is that Stanford has a shot. If Oregon and Stanford win, the top of the North looks like:

4-2 Oregon
3-2 Washington
3-2 Stanford

The three teams are 1-1 against each other. Washington State can finish 2-2, but needed to be within 1 win of the best team to be considered “tied”. The next tie-breaker is division record. Stanford is the only team with a single division loss, and therefore would win.

Right?

The UO-UW winner wins the division. The multi-team tiebreaker rules are used to eliminate one of the three teams, and then the winner is determined by the head-to-head outcome of the remaining two teams. If the Ducks and Cardinal both win on Saturday, the tiebreaker first eliminates Washington (worst division record of the three), and Oregon wins the division because they beat Stanford.