(12-02-2020 09:11 PM)jedclampett Wrote: .
If there is any significant realignment among the P5 conferences before 2026, it may come as a surprise, because there have been few signs that P5 realignments are on the horizon.
However, previous realignments have often come out of the blue...
Which FBS conference is most likely to add or lose teams, in your view?
Which FBS teams would switch conferences, and why?
optional:
Which FCS teams are most likely to upgrade to FBS within 5-10 years?
The P5s most likely to see changes are the PAC 12 & Big 12. The PAC 12 seems to be falling behind, while the Big 12 is the smallest of the bunch, though not necessarily to their chagrin. Do they pull from the G5s, do they combine forces, or do top members from one or both seek affiliation with another P5?
The AAC is the key cog in the wheel for the G5s, because if they manage to not lose their strongest members, they just need one football addition for CCG purposes, & they're starting to feel like a conference that's more comfortable together than just a couple years ago. Sure, the better members will always feel that they could do better, but now that UConn is gone, they seem more inclined to fight for one another as conference members will. However, if their top members jump, they will start pulling from the mid-tier G5s.
UMass & UConn seem likely to make a move together to either a G5 as football-only members, or to drop to FCS where they'd likely find more success. UMass has struggled on the field as an Indy, & UConn is likely to do the same. If they can't get in on the payout given to a G5 conference, they'd save themselves money by dropping to FCS.
The most likely FCS upgrades are as follows: JMU, NDSU, EWU, SHSU, or Jacksonville St. All have great potential, but two things would have to be considered: would moving up really be worth it, & would they have somewhere to naturally land? For top-dogs in the FCS, it's almost not worth giving up notoriety at that level to just be FBS, particularly for a school like NDSU, as you go from being one of the big fish in a medium-sized pond to a medium-to-small fish in a giant lake. Additionally, even if one or more of these schools wants to move up, will they have a natural landing spot? JMU & NDSU are most likely to find landing spots in FBS conferences, but are those the types of landing spots they would want? It's likely that they would have to give up key rivalries in their Olympic sports for that move, so would that really be worth it to them?