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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #321
RE: ODU @ feces
(12-18-2020 09:05 AM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Anything can happen because the teams make it happen. They are champions because they win the important games. Statistical analysis and polls are great for conversation but different ones will produce different results. None are perfect. College football used to pick a champion based on polls and it was full of controversy. In today's climate there would be 3 recounts.

Any thing can happen in a game or a small sample. Like UVA losing to UMBC. They could play 100 times and UVA win 99 times.

That is what makes the tournaments exciting. But, they shouldn't be used to suggest who the better team is. The best teams aren't always crowned champions....which is fine.
12-18-2020 11:31 AM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #322
RE: ODU @ feces
(12-18-2020 11:31 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 09:05 AM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Anything can happen because the teams make it happen. They are champions because they win the important games. Statistical analysis and polls are great for conversation but different ones will produce different results. None are perfect. College football used to pick a champion based on polls and it was full of controversy. In today's climate there would be 3 recounts.

Any thing can happen in a game or a small sample. Like UVA losing to UMBC. They could play 100 times and UVA win 99 times.

That is what makes the tournaments exciting. But, they shouldn't be used to suggest who the better team is. The best teams aren't always crowned champions....which is fine.


Yeah but if you make your way to the Title game of the NCAA tourney then you would have had to have won 5 in a row. That's quite the feat for the 36th best team in the nation. Especially to have done it two years in a row. That's really statistically mind blowing. Or maybe they were underrated. Granted they had a favorable path in 2011, that would have been ours but for a last second tip in. 03-banghead
12-18-2020 11:51 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #323
RE: ODU @ feces
(12-18-2020 11:51 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:31 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 09:05 AM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Anything can happen because the teams make it happen. They are champions because they win the important games. Statistical analysis and polls are great for conversation but different ones will produce different results. None are perfect. College football used to pick a champion based on polls and it was full of controversy. In today's climate there would be 3 recounts.

Any thing can happen in a game or a small sample. Like UVA losing to UMBC. They could play 100 times and UVA win 99 times.

That is what makes the tournaments exciting. But, they shouldn't be used to suggest who the better team is. The best teams aren't always crowned champions....which is fine.


Yeah but if you make your way to the Title game of the NCAA tourney then you would have had to have won 5 in a row. That's quite the feat for the 36th best team in the nation. Especially to have done it two years in a row. That's really statistically mind blowing. Or maybe they were underrated. Granted they had a favorable path in 2011, that would have been ours but for a last second tip in. 03-banghead

5 games is an extremely small sample size and are essentially statistically irrelevant.

Of course, people have the poor counter argument that they weren't trying as hard in the other 30 games during the season.

I do admit it much more fun not understanding this. I like to think we were better than Syracuse a couple years back.
(This post was last modified: 12-18-2020 12:01 PM by Gilesfan.)
12-18-2020 12:01 PM
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ODU BBALL Offline
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Post: #324
RE: ODU @ feces
(12-18-2020 12:01 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:51 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:31 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 09:05 AM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Anything can happen because the teams make it happen. They are champions because they win the important games. Statistical analysis and polls are great for conversation but different ones will produce different results. None are perfect. College football used to pick a champion based on polls and it was full of controversy. In today's climate there would be 3 recounts.

Any thing can happen in a game or a small sample. Like UVA losing to UMBC. They could play 100 times and UVA win 99 times.

That is what makes the tournaments exciting. But, they shouldn't be used to suggest who the better team is. The best teams aren't always crowned champions....which is fine.


Yeah but if you make your way to the Title game of the NCAA tourney then you would have had to have won 5 in a row. That's quite the feat for the 36th best team in the nation. Especially to have done it two years in a row. That's really statistically mind blowing. Or maybe they were underrated. Granted they had a favorable path in 2011, that would have been ours but for a last second tip in. 03-banghead

5 games is an extremely small sample size and are essentially statistically irrelevant.

Of course, people have the poor counter argument that they weren't trying as hard in the other 30 games during the season.

I do admit it much more fun not understanding this. I like to think we were better than Syracuse a couple years back.

According to the scoreboard and the record books, on the day the two teams played ODU WAS better than Syracuse. No amount of rhetoric or philosophy is going to change that fact.
12-18-2020 01:16 PM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #325
RE: ODU @ feces
(12-18-2020 12:01 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:51 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:31 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 09:05 AM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Anything can happen because the teams make it happen. They are champions because they win the important games. Statistical analysis and polls are great for conversation but different ones will produce different results. None are perfect. College football used to pick a champion based on polls and it was full of controversy. In today's climate there would be 3 recounts.

Any thing can happen in a game or a small sample. Like UVA losing to UMBC. They could play 100 times and UVA win 99 times.

That is what makes the tournaments exciting. But, they shouldn't be used to suggest who the better team is. The best teams aren't always crowned champions....which is fine.


Yeah but if you make your way to the Title game of the NCAA tourney then you would have had to have won 5 in a row. That's quite the feat for the 36th best team in the nation. Especially to have done it two years in a row. That's really statistically mind blowing. Or maybe they were underrated. Granted they had a favorable path in 2011, that would have been ours but for a last second tip in. 03-banghead

5 games is an extremely small sample size and are essentially statistically irrelevant.

Of course, people have the poor counter argument that they weren't trying as hard in the other 30 games during the season.

I do admit it much more fun not understanding this. I like to think we were better than Syracuse a couple years back.

Who says that?
12-18-2020 01:56 PM
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #326
RE: ODU @ feces
(12-18-2020 01:56 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 12:01 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:51 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:31 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 09:05 AM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Anything can happen because the teams make it happen. They are champions because they win the important games. Statistical analysis and polls are great for conversation but different ones will produce different results. None are perfect. College football used to pick a champion based on polls and it was full of controversy. In today's climate there would be 3 recounts.

Any thing can happen in a game or a small sample. Like UVA losing to UMBC. They could play 100 times and UVA win 99 times.

That is what makes the tournaments exciting. But, they shouldn't be used to suggest who the better team is. The best teams aren't always crowned champions....which is fine.


Yeah but if you make your way to the Title game of the NCAA tourney then you would have had to have won 5 in a row. That's quite the feat for the 36th best team in the nation. Especially to have done it two years in a row. That's really statistically mind blowing. Or maybe they were underrated. Granted they had a favorable path in 2011, that would have been ours but for a last second tip in. 03-banghead

5 games is an extremely small sample size and are essentially statistically irrelevant.

Of course, people have the poor counter argument that they weren't trying as hard in the other 30 games during the season.

I do admit it much more fun not understanding this. I like to think we were better than Syracuse a couple years back.

Who says that?

Trying hard and focus are two entirely different animals. I even see it in my son's soccer games. Got blown out 12-1 to a team and came back and tied them 3 weeks later. The 12-1 result wasn't a lack of effort but moreso an inability to mentally stay with it. We were only down 2-0 at half and just got worn down by the other team playing possession soccer and then reverted to everyone trying to be an individual hero. Those individual heroes were trying very hard but were not focused on the overall team task at hand. 2nd time we played we played possession soccer ourselves and we had several players play their best game ever. It is tough, if not impossible to maintain the necessary level of focus throughout a season. Sometimes, however, a team can reach that level at the right time and hold it long enough to make noise (especially when they have a coach like Brad Stevens). It is one thing when a better opponent doesn't show up mentally and you take advantage, but in the case of Butler and even VCU and GMU in their runs, they were simply better than many of the opponents in a well played game by both teams.
12-18-2020 02:21 PM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #327
RE: ODU @ feces
There are a hundred reasons a team may have an off night, but my point goes beyond that to the fact that some teams improve more than others, and some even get worse as the season progresses. The teams that are the best at the beginning of the season certainly are not going to be all of the same teams that are best at the end. The season is a process, so looking at the overall body of work to determine who is the best team completely ignores that the answer to that question is always in flux.
12-18-2020 03:02 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #328
RE: ODU @ feces
(12-18-2020 12:01 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:51 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:31 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 09:05 AM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Anything can happen because the teams make it happen. They are champions because they win the important games. Statistical analysis and polls are great for conversation but different ones will produce different results. None are perfect. College football used to pick a champion based on polls and it was full of controversy. In today's climate there would be 3 recounts.

Any thing can happen in a game or a small sample. Like UVA losing to UMBC. They could play 100 times and UVA win 99 times.

That is what makes the tournaments exciting. But, they shouldn't be used to suggest who the better team is. The best teams aren't always crowned champions....which is fine.


Yeah but if you make your way to the Title game of the NCAA tourney then you would have had to have won 5 in a row. That's quite the feat for the 36th best team in the nation. Especially to have done it two years in a row. That's really statistically mind blowing. Or maybe they were underrated. Granted they had a favorable path in 2011, that would have been ours but for a last second tip in. 03-banghead

5 games is an extremely small sample size and are essentially statistically irrelevant.

Of course, people have the poor counter argument that they weren't trying as hard in the other 30 games during the season.

I do admit it much more fun not understanding this. I like to think we were better than Syracuse a couple years back.

Statistically speaking, if they played 5 games in which there was an equal chance of winning as losing then the chance of them winning all 5 would be about 3%. Since they were pretty significant underdogs I’m sure by kenpom’s figuring in all but the first game then the chance of winning each of those games is less than 50% then the chance of winning all 5 would be well below the 3% “coin flip” odds. Hey it happens right? But the same team doing that two years in a row? That points to clear bias in your algorithm Ken.
12-18-2020 04:23 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #329
RE: ODU @ feces
(12-18-2020 01:56 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 12:01 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:51 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:31 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 09:05 AM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Anything can happen because the teams make it happen. They are champions because they win the important games. Statistical analysis and polls are great for conversation but different ones will produce different results. None are perfect. College football used to pick a champion based on polls and it was full of controversy. In today's climate there would be 3 recounts.

Any thing can happen in a game or a small sample. Like UVA losing to UMBC. They could play 100 times and UVA win 99 times.

That is what makes the tournaments exciting. But, they shouldn't be used to suggest who the better team is. The best teams aren't always crowned champions....which is fine.


Yeah but if you make your way to the Title game of the NCAA tourney then you would have had to have won 5 in a row. That's quite the feat for the 36th best team in the nation. Especially to have done it two years in a row. That's really statistically mind blowing. Or maybe they were underrated. Granted they had a favorable path in 2011, that would have been ours but for a last second tip in. 03-banghead

5 games is an extremely small sample size and are essentially statistically irrelevant.

Of course, people have the poor counter argument that they weren't trying as hard in the other 30 games during the season.

I do admit it much more fun not understanding this. I like to think we were better than Syracuse a couple years back.

Who says that?

People
12-18-2020 05:11 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #330
RE: ODU @ feces
(12-18-2020 04:23 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 12:01 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:51 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 11:31 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(12-18-2020 09:05 AM)Chillie Willie Wrote:  Anything can happen because the teams make it happen. They are champions because they win the important games. Statistical analysis and polls are great for conversation but different ones will produce different results. None are perfect. College football used to pick a champion based on polls and it was full of controversy. In today's climate there would be 3 recounts.

Any thing can happen in a game or a small sample. Like UVA losing to UMBC. They could play 100 times and UVA win 99 times.

That is what makes the tournaments exciting. But, they shouldn't be used to suggest who the better team is. The best teams aren't always crowned champions....which is fine.


Yeah but if you make your way to the Title game of the NCAA tourney then you would have had to have won 5 in a row. That's quite the feat for the 36th best team in the nation. Especially to have done it two years in a row. That's really statistically mind blowing. Or maybe they were underrated. Granted they had a favorable path in 2011, that would have been ours but for a last second tip in. 03-banghead

5 games is an extremely small sample size and are essentially statistically irrelevant.

Of course, people have the poor counter argument that they weren't trying as hard in the other 30 games during the season.

I do admit it much more fun not understanding this. I like to think we were better than Syracuse a couple years back.

Statistically speaking, if they played 5 games in which there was an equal chance of winning as losing then the chance of them winning all 5 would be about 3%. Since they were pretty significant underdogs I’m sure by kenpom’s figuring in all but the first game then the chance of winning each of those games is less than 50% then the chance of winning all 5 would be well below the 3% “coin flip” odds. Hey it happens right? But the same team doing that two years in a row? That points to clear bias in your algorithm Ken.

In 2010, Butler was the 12th best team in America according to KenPom.

They played:

UTEP 42
Murray State 52
Syracuse 3
Kansast State 6
Michigan State 20
Duke 1 (lost)

They were a good team and ranked highly for a reason. They also were the better team in 3 out of their 5 wins and not big underdogs (talent speaking, I don't know what the lines were) in the other 3 games.

In 2011, they were the 36th best team.

They played:

ODU- 48
Pitt- 4
Wisk- 6
Florida- 17
VCU- 53
Uconn- 10 (lost)

In that year they beat 3 higher ranked teams and 2 lower ranked teams. That year they lost 10 games, 3 of them vs. good teams (Ville, X, Duke). They also lost to Evansville, Milwaukee, Wright State, Youngstown State. They won some nailbiters and were lucky to draw VCU in the final 4.

You can look at any team, even the number 1 team in the country and their odds of winning 5 games in the tourney are somewhat low.
12-18-2020 05:21 PM
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