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RE: Former Texas AD says Big 12 should add teams
(12-03-2020 06:13 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: (12-02-2020 09:08 PM)JRsec Wrote: (12-02-2020 08:12 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: (12-02-2020 06:36 PM)JRsec Wrote: 1. Deloss Dodds is out of the limelight and this is a fluff piece, as the Big 12 has already compared vital statistics with the best of the G5 and found them lacking it hardly serves a purpose. They don't add to the bottom line.
2. The monetary difference between the SEC and Big 10 and the Big 12 is vast enough there isn't a practical motivation for movement of Arkansas and/or Nebraska to justify the move. The ACC is too remote and under GOR until 2036-7. The PAC's GOR and that of the Big 12 expire within months of each other. So logic and opportunity say that if the Big 12 is not to be picked apart, and if Texas is to keep its fiefdom, some form of consolidation with the PAC is the only way for that to happen. So if the Big 12 expands it will be from the PAC. And since both have expiring GOR's they can rebuild as they see fit without having to pay damages to those they choose to exclude from their present ranks. So much of what is suggested is possible.
3. However, a PAC merged with the Big 12 will not catch Texas or Oklahoma up to Big 10 and SEC new contract levels let alone to their present levels of remuneration. Therefore the risk that either, or both, Texas and Oklahoma could make other plans remains viable as well, no matter what anyone thinks. SEC payouts starting at least by 2024, and quite likely sooner, will begin at 68 million per school in annual distributions. That eclipses what Texas currently makes with the LHN deal added to Big 12 payouts by almost 14 million a year, escalators being relatively equal.
4. If the Big 12 expands with a PAC merger then Texas will obviously be forgoing the revenue boost for control. That may not satisfy Oklahoma and Kansas.
5. If the Big 12 does merge with the PAC that will put significant pressure upon ACC because the merged Big 12 will get a moderate boost and they already lead the ACC in revenue and that moderate boost would elevate the participating PAC schools well above current ACC payouts as well. IMO this will set up a very interesting time in 2034-5, if not sooner.
But, if Oklahoma and Kansas were to head to the Big 10 and Texas and perhaps Tech headed to the SEC both the Big 10 and SEC would see around a 3 million bump over and above their new raises further distancing their in state rivals of Louisville, Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech which will also put immense pressure upon the ACC.
6. What I consider possible, if not the more likely, is that top brands flee the Big 12 and ACC, and a new conference is formed out of the best of the rest. It is in the nature of top brands to reward themselves before considering others and if the monetary difference is massive, as it looks it may well be, then such considerations by these schools would be seen as prudent in light of the current losses suffered due to COVID and declining contributions from dying Boomers, and a concerted effort not to be too beholden to Corporate grants which frequently have major strings attached.
7. None of this takes into consideration legal changes which could alter the composition of any or all P5 conferences should pay for play become reality. In that event they all may be looking to consolidate to gain by increased branding, streamlined and shared overhead, and by creating conferences decidedly more appealing to the market demands that clearly demand more competitive games among the familiar and oldest brands and the elimination of weak sisters and buy games.
8. It is in #7 where Deloss hits the mark. There is more realignment coming. To know what form that takes depends upon whether there is pay for play or not. If not realignment will be based upon what is best for the top brands which are tired of lagging their peer schools in the SEC or Big 10. If we have pay for play it will be because of the need to maximize revenue by meeting network demands. And the latter could also include part of the former.
Point 6 piques my curiosity, mostly because I’ve tossed that possibility around before and didn’t get much traction with it from other posters.
I’ve said Texas, TTU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Louisville, WVU, Clemson, FSU, and Miami could be a compelling line up.
Who do you have as your ACC-Big 12 super league?
How do you get past the ACC GOR?
All GOR's are opened with departures of any kind and must be re-signed. Should we move to pay for play this will come into play in a major way. If anyone bows out of a P5 conference because they can't afford or their philosophy won't permit it, then that conference has an open window from which others may leap. In the ACC that could be any of several schools. In the SEC it would be Vanderbilt. In the Big 10 it could be one of several schools due to philosophy more than money and in the PAC you have both those who might not be able to afford it and those who would demure due to philosophical reasons. That's what happens to the GOR's.
Should that happen Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, and Louisville might all find better paying digs, but certainly not to the same conferences. Notre Dame would join after the fray settled and they knew the lay of the land required it for participation in the CFP.
There's no telling what happens then but I had in mind something more along these lines:
Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and Southern Cal join the Big 10 with possibly Colorado.
Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Miami join the SEC possibly with Georgia Tech.
Neither the SEC nor Big 10 get large super brands in football. The Big 10 does quite well academically and market wise, as does the SEC and the SEC gains the 2nd Florida school, and in a region of the state they don't currently reach well.
Texas and Oklahoma are used to anchor the rest. But remember the PAC and Big 12 have expiring GOR's so there is no compulsion to include anyone.
Now the trick is to form another conference out of the rest that will pay all of them more than they were making previously.
So a hypothetical set of moves listed above might result in a new conference like this one:
Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Utah
Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
N.C. State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Texas Christian
So the Big 10 might look something like this:
Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
The SEC loses Vanderbilt and looks like this:
Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M
Out are Vanderbilt, Boston College and Wake Forest likely by choice and Oregon State and Washington State by expiring GOR.
If all the rest make more than they did before there are no lawsuits. And even if B.C. and Wake didn't leave voluntarily it takes 12 votes to dissolve the ACC so it could still be accomplished.
Now you have an assortment of kings in the new conference. Stronger branding in the Big 10 with an addition of one of the top 10 schools available in Notre Dame which would be compelled to join somewhere and with the acquisitions of Stanford and USC and with Purdue and exposure in the Northeast would have reason to put more than just hockey in the Big 10.. The SEC picks up Clemson as a football power to offset the academic and hoops adds, and can only hope that Florida State finds its footing again.
This keeps things very regional moving forward.
The three champs would be in the CFP and the best at large.
Now this is just a hypothetical but a plausible one in which both expiration of GOR's and the fact that a majority of schools could earn more in a time when deficits are mounting, and in which regional play becomes more important, at least at the divisional level. And it's an example of how it might happen.
But who is going to be the one(s) to dare try and leave the ACC first?
I don’t envision a Big 12/ACC partial merger that doesn’t include the very best of both leagues. I don’t see there there are pieces and parts of the ACC valuable enough for the Big Ten/SEC to want to take.
Schools like Florida St, Miami, Louisville, and Clemson could move without instate entanglements slowing them down. These would be the ones I’d expect to see interested in putting together a higher dollar value conference.
NC and VA schools aren’t going to be able to move unless either their little brothers (or is it big brother if you’re the flashy athletic program but there’s an older, snootier school in your state that doesn’t invest in sports?) are taken care of our the conference is so obviously sinking that they can get away with jumping ship.
I don't see the 6 privates, Pitt, Georgia Tech, UNC or UVA moving to a Big 12. They might move to an SEC or Big 10 with a massive $$ increase.So that only leaves the other 5. Not enough to overcome the GOR.
(This post was last modified: 12-03-2020 06:21 PM by bullet.)
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Former Texas AD says Big 12 should add teams
