https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/ma...n-n1178930

Interesting conclusion from John Hopkins study-no significant change in deaths, only in the causes. The since deleted study is linked in the article.

"...On Thursday, Johns Hopkins University explained that they deleted the article on the study because it “was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic.”



They did not, however, challenge the accuracy of the data or its conclusions. In other words, the article was deleted because it didn’t fit the proper narrative."

(11-27-2020 04:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/ma...n-n1178930

Interesting conclusion from John Hopkins study-no significant change in deaths, only in the causes. The since deleted study is linked in the article.

"...On Thursday, Johns Hopkins University explained that they deleted the article on the study because it “was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic.”



They did not, however, challenge the accuracy of the data or its conclusions. In other words, the article was deleted because it didn’t fit the proper narrative."

Weekly deaths from all causes is fairly predictable. There have been 300k+ excess deaths this year.



In 2020 from the beginning of the year until the end of Oct there have been 2.73M deaths from all causes. Over the same time period in 2019 there were 2.34M deaths from all causes. Deaths are way up this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid...deaths.htm

aw hell, here comes Elvis "I dont really understand what I'm reading" back into the room.

(11-27-2020 06:55 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  aw hell, here comes Elvis "I dont really understand what I'm reading" back into the room.

You are just a ray of illiterate sunshine. Prove me wrong then. Go look up the deaths from all causes numbers from this year and last year and compare them to what I wrote.

If you aren't comfortable debating your position with someone who doesn't agree with you it's a good sign your position is built on lies. You continue to attack me personally, but not the data I post. I've invited you to prove me wrong in another thread, haven't heard a peep.

(11-27-2020 07:00 PM)U_of_Elvis Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:55 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  aw hell, here comes Elvis "I dont really understand what I'm reading" back into the room.

You are just a ray of illiterate sunshine. Prove me wrong then. Go look up the deaths from all causes numbers from this year and last year and compare them to what I wrote.

If you aren't comfortable debating your position with someone who doesn't agree with you it's a good sign your position is built on lies. You continue to attack me personally, but not the data I post. I've invited you to prove me wrong in another thread, haven't heard a peep.

I apologize for saying you had your head up your ass. Considering the above statement is the same crap that Tom says when he gets proven wrong, its clear you have your head up Tom's ass. My bad.

(11-27-2020 07:19 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 07:00 PM)U_of_Elvis Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:55 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  aw hell, here comes Elvis "I dont really understand what I'm reading" back into the room.

You are just a ray of illiterate sunshine. Prove me wrong then. Go look up the deaths from all causes numbers from this year and last year and compare them to what I wrote.

If you aren't comfortable debating your position with someone who doesn't agree with you it's a good sign your position is built on lies. You continue to attack me personally, but not the data I post. I've invited you to prove me wrong in another thread, haven't heard a peep.

I apologize for saying you had your head up your ass. Considering the above statement is the same crap that Tom says when he gets proven wrong, its clear you have your head up Tom's ass. My bad.

Still can't prove me wrong, still name calling. Got it. I believe they call that "impotent rage".

(11-27-2020 06:52 PM)U_of_Elvis Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 04:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/ma...n-n1178930

Interesting conclusion from John Hopkins study-no significant change in deaths, only in the causes. The since deleted study is linked in the article.

"...On Thursday, Johns Hopkins University explained that they deleted the article on the study because it “was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic.”



They did not, however, challenge the accuracy of the data or its conclusions. In other words, the article was deleted because it didn’t fit the proper narrative."

Weekly deaths from all causes is fairly predictable. There have been 300k+ excess deaths this year.



In 2020 from the beginning of the year until the end of Oct there have been 2.73M deaths from all causes. Over the same time period in 2019 there were 2.34M deaths from all causes. Deaths are way up this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid...deaths.htm

I can’t find why the threshold for what is considered excess deaths is lower for 2020 than actual deaths in previous years. Did you see an explanation?

Covid was/is nothing more than part of an elaborate plot to get Trump out of the White House and rescue the Democrat's money interests vis-à-vis China. Prove me wrong.

(11-27-2020 07:32 PM)banker Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:52 PM)U_of_Elvis Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 04:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/ma...n-n1178930

Interesting conclusion from John Hopkins study-no significant change in deaths, only in the causes. The since deleted study is linked in the article.

"...On Thursday, Johns Hopkins University explained that they deleted the article on the study because it “was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic.”



They did not, however, challenge the accuracy of the data or its conclusions. In other words, the article was deleted because it didn’t fit the proper narrative."

Weekly deaths from all causes is fairly predictable. There have been 300k+ excess deaths this year.



In 2020 from the beginning of the year until the end of Oct there have been 2.73M deaths from all causes. Over the same time period in 2019 there were 2.34M deaths from all causes. Deaths are way up this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid...deaths.htm

I can’t find why the threshold for what is considered excess deaths is lower for 2020 than actual deaths in previous years. Did you see an explanation?

They are using a data model based on historical deaths and seasonality to define the expected deaths for a time period.

Here is their method, but it went to far into the date science side for me:

Counts of deaths in the most recent weeks were compared with historical trends (from 2013 to present) to determine whether the number of deaths in recent weeks was significantly higher than expected, using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). The ‘surveillance’ package in R (2) was used to implement the Farrington algorithms, which use overdispersed Poisson generalized linear models with spline terms to model trends in counts, accounting for seasonality. For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and an upper bound threshold based on a one-sided 95% prediction interval of these expected counts is used to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Estimates of excess deaths are provided based on the observed number of deaths relative to two different thresholds. The lower end of the excess death estimate range is generated by comparing the observed counts to the upper bound threshold, and a higher end of the excess death estimate range is generated by comparing the observed count to the average expected number of deaths. Reported counts were weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks.

(11-27-2020 07:38 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Covid was/is nothing more than part of an elaborate plot to get Trump out of the White House and rescue the Democrat's money interests vis-à-vis China. Prove me wrong.

Too much international impact for covid to be a hoax focused on a US election.

(11-27-2020 07:41 PM)U_of_Elvis Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 07:38 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Covid was/is nothing more than part of an elaborate plot to get Trump out of the White House and rescue the Democrat's money interests vis-à-vis China. Prove me wrong.

Too much international impact for covid to be a hoax focused on a US election.

Bullshiit

(11-27-2020 07:41 PM)U_of_Elvis Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 07:38 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Covid was/is nothing more than part of an elaborate plot to get Trump out of the White House and rescue the Democrat's money interests vis-à-vis China. Prove me wrong.

Too much international impact for covid to be a hoax focused on a US election.

Well, if you believe China or the dems care about that.

Really this is the absolute best conspiracy material in my lifetime.

Trump is putting the tariff screws to China. They want him gone.

The dems, of course, want Trump gone.

Biden is deeply connected to China, as is John Kerry and, of course,’Hunter.

The dems stage their totally bogus, no chance impeachment while at the same time you have this virus released in China.

China immediately shuts down domestic travel, but let uninterrupted travel continue internationally. This protects the Chinese economy while upending every other developed nation.

The press and democrat politicians downplay the virus in the early days. They encourage people to go to Chinatown in San Fran and go to a play, ride the subway in NY. Cuomo throws sick people into nursing homes leading to an early, unsustainable death rate leading to panic.

The virus is far less deadly to people of Asian decent,’maybe designed that way intentionally.

The press pounds continuously on the virus and the Trump response while ignoring that we did better, or as well as, Europe on the death rate and much better economically.

Biden runs almost exclusively on the virus, it is the single reason he “won”.

Conclusion:’the release of the virus was intentional, orchestrated by the dems and the PRC as the only hope of getting Trump out of office. Another ends justify the means play by the evil left.

Compare this year to 2018 which was a bad flu year.

(11-27-2020 09:41 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Compare this year to 2018 which was a bad flu year.

2018 from the beginning of the year until 27th of october is 2.40M deaths.
2020 from beginning of the year until 31st of october is 2.73M deaths

Data set granularity is "week ending" so you can't line up exact days, but I started 2018 with 12/30/2017 so each data set includes 44 weeks of data.

(11-27-2020 06:52 PM)U_of_Elvis Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 04:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/ma...n-n1178930

Interesting conclusion from John Hopkins study-no significant change in deaths, only in the causes. The since deleted study is linked in the article.

"...On Thursday, Johns Hopkins University explained that they deleted the article on the study because it “was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic.”



They did not, however, challenge the accuracy of the data or its conclusions. In other words, the article was deleted because it didn’t fit the proper narrative."

Weekly deaths from all causes is fairly predictable. There have been 300k+ excess deaths this year.



In 2020 from the beginning of the year until the end of Oct there have been 2.73M deaths from all causes. Over the same time period in 2019 there were 2.34M deaths from all causes. Deaths are way up this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid...deaths.htm

Yea. Perhaps.

How many FROM COVID?

How many from despair, depression, opioids, the drinky, isolation?

How many of these deaths are FROM the WuFlu? Find those numbers, then we can talk.

Thx

So the CDC has an algorithm that projected we would have less deaths in 2020 than we had in 2018 or 2019 when their algorithm had over estimated deaths in 2018 and 2019 based on the graph (where actual deaths are consistently below the threshold line).

In conclusion -‘we guessed how many people would die, more than that died, so Covid killed all the extras. It wasn’t that we messed up by having an inaccurate formula.

(11-27-2020 10:42 PM)banker Wrote:  So the CDC has an algorithm that projected we would have less deaths in 2020 than we had in 2018 or 2019 when their algorithm had over estimated deaths in 2018 and 2019 based on the graph (where actual deaths are consistently below the threshold line).

In conclusion -‘we guessed how many people would die, more than that died, so Covid killed all the extras. It wasn’t that we messed up by having an inaccurate formula.

Their formula "over estimated" it's prediction because it is an upper bound. It predicts the most people that can die that week before it sets off a red flag that "there is a cause" like a bad flu season that you can see on the chart for 2018.

79k people died in the week ending April 11th, 2020. 55k people died in the week ending April 13th 2019. That isn't "our algorithm missed it". That is a massive variation from the norm that doesn't happen without a reason.

The weekly deaths are in a fairly regular rise and fall, until the spring of 2020 when it becomes completely unpredictable.

So many sheep

(11-28-2020 10:17 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  So many sheep

Agree. The right is overflowing with idiots who think they're wolves, but everyone else knows they're sheep. It both sad and hilarious.

(11-29-2020 12:22 PM)indianashocker Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 10:17 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  So many sheep

Agree. The right is overflowing with idiots who think they're wolves, but everyone else knows they're sheep. It both sad and hilarious.

Go put on your mask, take your vaccine, and be a good little boy.