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Edgebrookjeff Offline
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Post: #821
RE: UCF Game
Darrian Beavers also had a great game. He was a beast in the middle and I think he led the team in tackles.
 
11-22-2020 07:28 PM
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Bearhawkeye Offline
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Post: #822
RE: UCF Game
(11-22-2020 10:16 AM)RuckleSt Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 12:50 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 10:47 PM)RuckleSt Wrote:  I thought about adding that, but from an analytics perspective it makes sense to always go for two.

Gottta source for this?

Based on current 1pt and 2pt conversions a team would in theory score more points over the course of a season, and therefore it makes sense to always go for two. This is obviously a narrow viewed approach by only looking at points and not potential impact on wins and losses, but interesting nonetheless.

https://wnaw.com/math-says-nfl-teams-sho...o-for-two/

Thanks for the link but I sense a lot of fake news there especially when you use the word "always". In addition to the article being 2 years old, the extra point data is only from 2015 (due to that being the year the LoS moved) and thus has a small sample size. Meanwhile, the 2 point data is from 2001 on and the difference is still pretty small before we start looking at all the other potential variables (weather, kicking game quality, score, time left in game, changes in success rate over time, etc.)
 
11-22-2020 07:53 PM
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RuckleSt Offline
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Post: #823
RE: UCF Game
(11-22-2020 07:53 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 10:16 AM)RuckleSt Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 12:50 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 10:47 PM)RuckleSt Wrote:  I thought about adding that, but from an analytics perspective it makes sense to always go for two.

Gottta source for this?

Based on current 1pt and 2pt conversions a team would in theory score more points over the course of a season, and therefore it makes sense to always go for two. This is obviously a narrow viewed approach by only looking at points and not potential impact on wins and losses, but interesting nonetheless.

https://wnaw.com/math-says-nfl-teams-sho...o-for-two/

Thanks for the link but I sense a lot of fake news there especially when you use the word "always". In addition to the article being 2 years old, the extra point data is only from 2015 (due to that being the year the LoS moved) and thus has a small sample size. Meanwhile, the 2 point data is from 2001 on and the difference is still pretty small before we start looking at all the other potential variables (weather, kicking game quality, score, time left in game, changes in success rate over time, etc.)

Poor word choice on my part. I'm certainly not trying to spread fake news or advocating for going for a 2pt conversion everytime, but it could make sense if you have a prolific offense like Texas Tech or Oregon back in the day. I think Chip Kelly dabbled with the concept a little bit when he was at Oregon. Either way, it is something worth monitoring as defense's become more restricted on what they can do, or if the 1 pt kick gets pushed back like the pros. I honestly would like to see the 1 pt kick pushed back just to add another dynamic to the game.
 
11-22-2020 11:02 PM
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Bearhawkeye Offline
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Post: #824
RE: UCF Game
(11-22-2020 11:02 PM)RuckleSt Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 07:53 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 10:16 AM)RuckleSt Wrote:  
(11-22-2020 12:50 AM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 10:47 PM)RuckleSt Wrote:  I thought about adding that, but from an analytics perspective it makes sense to always go for two.

Gottta source for this?

Based on current 1pt and 2pt conversions a team would in theory score more points over the course of a season, and therefore it makes sense to always go for two. This is obviously a narrow viewed approach by only looking at points and not potential impact on wins and losses, but interesting nonetheless.

https://wnaw.com/math-says-nfl-teams-sho...o-for-two/

Thanks for the link but I sense a lot of fake news there especially when you use the word "always". In addition to the article being 2 years old, the extra point data is only from 2015 (due to that being the year the LoS moved) and thus has a small sample size. Meanwhile, the 2 point data is from 2001 on and the difference is still pretty small before we start looking at all the other potential variables (weather, kicking game quality, score, time left in game, changes in success rate over time, etc.)

Poor word choice on my part. I'm certainly not trying to spread fake news or advocating for going for a 2pt conversion everytime, but it could make sense if you have a prolific offense like Texas Tech or Oregon back in the day. I think Chip Kelly dabbled with the concept a little bit when he was at Oregon. Either way, it is something worth monitoring as defense's become more restricted on what they can do, or if the 1 pt kick gets pushed back like the pros. I honestly would like to see the 1 pt kick pushed back just to add another dynamic to the game.

There's a lot of factors and I think I agree with you that I'd like to see it pushed back as well. But part of my skepticism is that offenses will be able to keep up their level of success on 2 pointers. It's one thing to have a couple of plays in your playbook to pull out when you need them, but I think defenses would catch on more and more as the season went on in terms of defending against it especially if everybody was doing it all the time.
 
11-23-2020 03:07 PM
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ZCat Offline
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Post: #825
RE: UCF Game
(11-21-2020 04:13 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Big recovery by Justin Harris
Was that who recovered the second muffed punt? Pretty much the player of the game. Without that recovery it was over.
 
11-23-2020 09:26 PM
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