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The Secret To The AAC Being P6
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #21
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-20-2020 05:05 PM)PirateJP Wrote:  Honestly the best thing the AAC can do to replace UConn is be patient. Don’t make any rush decisions to replace them. Are there good basketball teams out there? Yes! Are there good football teams out there? Yes! Is there a school out there that has both? Not currently! Sit tight for a few years and then reevaluate programs like Charlotte or Georgia St. Programs with the potential to be players but aren’t quite there yet.

Disagree. Patience doesn't get you anywhere in this world if you're trying to get ahead. You've got to grab the ball and run with it. That's how things get done.

Besides, Aresco has said some things recently, suggesting that the conference wouldn't prefer to go on with 11 teams, and might be likely to make some moves toward replacing UConn after this season.
11-20-2020 06:23 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #22
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-20-2020 05:05 PM)PirateJP Wrote:  Honestly the best thing the AAC can do to replace UConn is be patient. Don’t make any rush decisions to replace them. Are there good basketball teams out there? Yes! Are there good football teams out there? Yes! Is there a school out there that has both? Not currently! Sit tight for a few years and then reevaluate programs like Charlotte or Georgia St. Programs with the potential to be players but aren’t quite there yet.

Exactly. BYU/Army/Boise/AF are about the only ones that make any sense to accept right now. In 5 years---maybe that changes. We will see. 04-cheers
11-20-2020 08:02 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #23
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-20-2020 06:23 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 05:05 PM)PirateJP Wrote:  Honestly the best thing the AAC can do to replace UConn is be patient. Don’t make any rush decisions to replace them. Are there good basketball teams out there? Yes! Are there good football teams out there? Yes! Is there a school out there that has both? Not currently! Sit tight for a few years and then reevaluate programs like Charlotte or Georgia St. Programs with the potential to be players but aren’t quite there yet.

Disagree. Patience doesn't get you anywhere in this world if you're trying to get ahead. You've got to grab the ball and run with it. That's how things get done.

Besides, Aresco has said some things recently, suggesting that the conference wouldn't prefer to go on with 11 teams, and might be likely to make some moves toward replacing UConn after this season.

And I would be for "making moves" at this time if the result is adding one of BYU/Army/AF/Boise. Otherwise, its a bad idea.

We are looking to replace a well known state flagship school that features solid academics, a blueblood premium basketball program, and one of the worst football programs in FBS. Replacing them represents an opportunity to improve the AAC--IF its done right.

We need a school that has a combination of academic/brand value/basketball value/football value that is as strong or better than UConn. To my knowledge, no single school exists that would satisfy all those requirements---that would also accept an invite to join the AAC right now.

To me, all options are on the table, including a split invite (football only+basketball only). Right now, my favorite is BYU "football only" and VCU "olympic sports only". Though less impressive, right now Army, Boise, and Air Force all could adequately fill that BYU spot.

If none of those is available---I cant support just taking a flyer on some all sports Sunbelt or CUSA school with our fingers crossed that it will work out. "Hoping it will work out" is not a plan. "Hoping it will work out" is actually what happens in the absence of a plan. If you are a league seeking to be perceived as an emerging power league--you simply cant act like a desperate G5 willing to add pretty much anyone that will say "yes". Establish standards and then stick to them.
(This post was last modified: 11-20-2020 08:24 PM by Attackcoog.)
11-20-2020 08:14 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #24
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
We are looking to replace a
well known state flagship school that features solid academics, a blueblood premium basketball program, and one of the worst football programs in FBS.

If the conference is willing to replace UConn's FB program with a FB-only school, it would not be difficult to find a school with a much better FB program than UConn ([i]a school that has, on average, been ranked 60 or 70 ranks ahead of UConn since 2013.

Similarly, it wouldn't be difficult to find a top 30 or top 35 quality FB school that would be highly competitive with the upper-tier of the conference and would also be interested in joining the AAC. There are a few schools that meet those criteria (see below).

The conference's expressed intention is to bring aboard one of the strongest non-P5 FB schools in the country.

The main topic of discussion is, simply: Which non-P5 FBS schools have the strongest FB programs?

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We need a school (j.c. insert: or FB & BB schools (see below)) that has (or have) a combination of academic/brand value/basketball value/football value that is as strong or better than UConn. To my knowledge, no single school exists that would satisfy all those requirements---that would also accept an invite to join the AAC right now.

True. This being the case, the conference would be most likely to add a FB school (like Navy) and a BB school (like Wichita State), given that Commissioner Aresco has recently stated in a radio interview that the conference does not prefer to continue on much longer with only 11 FB & BB schools.

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
To me, all options are on the table, including a split invite
(football only+basketball only). Right now, my favorite is BYU "football only" and VCU "olympic sports only". Though less impressive, right now Army, Boise, and Air Force all could adequately fill that BYU spot.

Agree - - that would be a very satisfactory arrangement, BYU being the ideal FB school (due to their high viewership numbers), given that the travel distance might be prohibitive for BYU becoming an all-sports member.

VCU or Dayton would be great, as would St. Louis, which appears to be the highest-rated A-10 team this season.

VCU has the advantage of location (filling a regional gap along the eastern seaboard) and tapping a huge (12 million population) metropolitan market, and is a large public university, like UCF, USF, Memphis, Temple, WSU, ECU, Cincy, & Houston.

Other options would include Richmond (#2 preseason in A10; 24-7 last season) and Rhode Island (averaging 22.5 wins per season over the past 4 seasons, and 21+ wins per season over the past 6 seasons).


(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If none of those is available---I cant support just taking a flyer on some all sports Sunbelt or CUSA school with our fingers crossed that it will work out.

Many of us agree that BYU, Army, Boise, & Air Force would be good options, and that they would be acceptable to the conference.

It also seems very unlikely that there is any qualified/potential all-sports member from the Sunbelt, CUSA, or any conference, except BYU or San Diego State, both of which are probably too far away to be full members.

However, a strong case, based on objective criteria (e.g., overall winning % over the past decade, top 25 teams, numerous bowl games in the past decade) can also be made for San Diego State (10 consecutive bowl games, 3 ranked teams (2016, 207, & 2019)), Marshall (7 bowls (6-1) & 2 top 25 teams (2014 and 2020) since 2011), Appalachian State (5 bowls (5-0) & 3 ranked teams (2018, 2019, & 2020)), and Louisiana-Lafayette(7 bowls (5-2) since 2011; current top 25 team).

All four of these schools compare favorably with Army (4 bowls (4-0); 2 ranked teams (2018 and 2020) and Air Force (6 bowls (3-3); one ranked team (2019) since 2011).

NOTE:

1) San Diego State (10 bowls (100%))
has played in more bowl games than BYU (8 (80%)) and Boise State (8 (80%)) have played in over the past decade. Marshall 7 (70%) and Louisiana 7 (70%) are right behind, and Appalachian State (83.3%) has gone to 5 bowl games in their 6 years as an FBS program.

2) Appalachian State (5-0), Marshall (6-1), and Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2) have won a higher percentage of their bowl games than BYU (4-4) and Boise State (5-3) have won in the past decade.

3) Although BYU has had 5 ranked teams in the past decade, none of these teams have finished in the AP Top 25.


.

Summary:

Of the four teams listed above (BYU, Boise State, Army, & Air Force), none have played in a significantly greater number (%) of bowl games during the past decade than have SDSU, Marshall, App. State, or Louisiana.

Two (BYU (10 ranked teams) & Boise State (5 ranked teams)) of the four FB schools listed above have had more ranked teams than Army (2), Air Force (1), SDSU (3), App State (3), Marshall (2), and Louisiana (1).

.

Conclusion:

San Diego State, Marshall, Appalachian State, and Louisiana are among the nation's strongest non-P5 FBS schools.

Unlike BYU, Boise St., Army, Air Force (and possibly SDSU), Marshall, App St., and Louisiana would be likely to accept an offer to join the AAC as FB-only members.

Thus, if it is a high enough priority for the AAC to replace UConn FB with a high quality FB program, and if none of the four teams listed above are interested in joining the conference, there are likely to be at least three available options.

.

We'll see, perhaps within the next five years, or possibly sooner than that if the conference feels the need to make a strategic move to offset the risk of being raided by a P5 conference (e.g., Big 12) before the next round of broadcasting deals are negotiated between 2023 and 2026.
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2020 04:21 AM by jedclampett.)
11-21-2020 02:07 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #25
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-21-2020 02:07 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
We are looking to replace a
well known state flagship school that features solid academics, a blueblood premium basketball program, and one of the worst football programs in FBS.

If the conference is willing to replace UConn's FB program with a FB-only school, it would not be difficult to find a school with a much better FB program than UConn ([i]a school that has, on average, been ranked 60 or 70 ranks ahead of UConn since 2013.

Similarly, it wouldn't be difficult to find a top 30 or top 35 quality FB school that would be highly competitive with the upper-tier of the conference and would also be interested in joining the AAC. There are a few schools that meet those criteria (see below).

The conference's expressed intention is to bring aboard one of the strongest non-P5 FB schools in the country.

The main topic of discussion is, simply: Which non-P5 FBS schools have the strongest FB programs?

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We need a school (j.c. insert: or FB & BB schools (see below)) that has (or have) a combination of academic/brand value/basketball value/football value that is as strong or better than UConn. To my knowledge, no single school exists that would satisfy all those requirements---that would also accept an invite to join the AAC right now.

True. This being the case, the conference would be most likely to add a FB school (like Navy) and a BB school (like Wichita State), given that Commissioner Aresco has recently stated in a radio interview that the conference does not prefer to continue on much longer with only 11 FB & BB schools.

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
To me, all options are on the table, including a split invite
(football only+basketball only). Right now, my favorite is BYU "football only" and VCU "olympic sports only". Though less impressive, right now Army, Boise, and Air Force all could adequately fill that BYU spot.

Agree - - that would be a very satisfactory arrangement, BYU being the ideal FB school (due to their high viewership numbers), given that the travel distance might be prohibitive for BYU becoming an all-sports member.

VCU or Dayton would be great, as would St. Louis, which appears to be the highest-rated A-10 team this season.

VCU has the advantage of location (filling a regional gap along the eastern seaboard) and tapping a huge (12 million population) metropolitan market, and is a large public university, like UCF, USF, Memphis, Temple, WSU, ECU, Cincy, & Houston.

Other options would include Richmond (#2 preseason in A10; 24-7 last season) and Rhode Island (averaging 22.5 wins per season over the past 4 seasons, and 21+ wins per season over the past 6 seasons).


(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If none of those is available---I cant support just taking a flyer on some all sports Sunbelt or CUSA school with our fingers crossed that it will work out.

Many of us agree that BYU, Army, Boise, & Air Force would be good options, and that they would be acceptable to the conference.

It also seems very unlikely that there is any qualified/potential all-sports member from the Sunbelt, CUSA, or any conference, except BYU or San Diego State, both of which are probably too far away to be full members.

However, a strong case, based on objective criteria (e.g., overall winning % over the past decade, top 25 teams, numerous bowl games in the past decade) can also be made for San Diego State (10 consecutive bowl games, 3 ranked teams (2016, 207, & 2019)), Marshall (7 bowls (6-1) & 2 top 25 teams (2014 and 2020) since 2011), Appalachian State (5 bowls (5-0) & 3 ranked teams (2018, 2019, & 2020)), and Louisiana-Lafayette(7 bowls (5-2) since 2011; current top 25 team).

All four of these schools compare favorably with Army (4 bowls (4-0); 2 ranked teams (2018 and 2020) and Air Force (6 bowls (3-3); one ranked team (2019) since 2011).

NOTE:

1) San Diego State (10 bowls (100%))
has played in more bowl games than BYU (8 (80%)) and Boise State (8 (80%)) have played in over the past decade. Marshall 7 (70%) and Louisiana 7 (70%) are right behind, and Appalachian State (83.3%) has gone to 5 bowl games in their 6 years as an FBS program.

2) Appalachian State (5-0), Marshall (6-1), and Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2) have won a higher percentage of their bowl games than BYU (4-4) and Boise State (5-3) have won in the past decade.

3) Although BYU has had 5 ranked teams in the past decade, none of these teams have finished in the AP Top 25.


.

Summary:

Of the four teams listed above (BYU, Boise State, Army, & Air Force), none have played in a significantly greater number (%) of bowl games during the past decade than have SDSU, Marshall, App. State, or Louisiana.

Two (BYU (10 ranked teams) & Boise State (5 ranked teams)) of the four FB schools listed above have had more ranked teams than Army (2), Air Force (1), SDSU (3), App State (3), Marshall (2), and Louisiana (1).

.

Conclusion:

San Diego State, Marshall, Appalachian State, and Louisiana are among the nation's strongest non-P5 FBS schools.

Unlike BYU, Boise St., Army, Air Force (and possibly SDSU), Marshall, App St., and Louisiana would be likely to accept an offer to join the AAC as FB-only members.

Thus, if it is a high enough priority for the AAC to replace UConn FB with a high quality FB program, and if none of the four teams listed above are interested in joining the conference, there are likely to be at least three available options.

None of the options outside of BYU/Boise/Army and possibly Air Force aid the AAC in their goal of being perceived as an emerging P6 conference. It’s just that simple. “Brand” is the important concept here you seem to be ignoring. There is a reason the schools currently considered acceptable are judged to be acceptable—-and it’s not about how many bowl games they have been to in the last few years.

Frankly, given the revenue shortfalls everyone has seen during Covid—I cant imagine there is any great desire within the conference to split revenue with a 12th member unless that member is a real value adding proposition like BYU or Boise.
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2020 04:20 AM by Attackcoog.)
11-21-2020 04:15 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-21-2020 04:15 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 02:07 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
We are looking to replace a
well known state flagship school that features solid academics, a blueblood premium basketball program, and one of the worst football programs in FBS.

If the conference is willing to replace UConn's FB program with a FB-only school, it would not be difficult to find a school with a much better FB program than UConn ([i]a school that has, on average, been ranked 60 or 70 ranks ahead of UConn since 2013.

Similarly, it wouldn't be difficult to find a top 30 or top 35 quality FB school that would be highly competitive with the upper-tier of the conference and would also be interested in joining the AAC. There are a few schools that meet those criteria (see below).

The conference's expressed intention is to bring aboard one of the strongest non-P5 FB schools in the country.

The main topic of discussion is, simply: Which non-P5 FBS schools have the strongest FB programs?

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We need a school (j.c. insert: or FB & BB schools (see below)) that has (or have) a combination of academic/brand value/basketball value/football value that is as strong or better than UConn. To my knowledge, no single school exists that would satisfy all those requirements---that would also accept an invite to join the AAC right now.

True. This being the case, the conference would be most likely to add a FB school (like Navy) and a BB school (like Wichita State), given that Commissioner Aresco has recently stated in a radio interview that the conference does not prefer to continue on much longer with only 11 FB & BB schools.

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
To me, all options are on the table, including a split invite
(football only+basketball only). Right now, my favorite is BYU "football only" and VCU "olympic sports only". Though less impressive, right now Army, Boise, and Air Force all could adequately fill that BYU spot.

Agree - - that would be a very satisfactory arrangement, BYU being the ideal FB school (due to their high viewership numbers), given that the travel distance might be prohibitive for BYU becoming an all-sports member.

VCU or Dayton would be great, as would St. Louis, which appears to be the highest-rated A-10 team this season.

VCU has the advantage of location (filling a regional gap along the eastern seaboard) and tapping a huge (12 million population) metropolitan market, and is a large public university, like UCF, USF, Memphis, Temple, WSU, ECU, Cincy, & Houston.

Other options would include Richmond (#2 preseason in A10; 24-7 last season) and Rhode Island (averaging 22.5 wins per season over the past 4 seasons, and 21+ wins per season over the past 6 seasons).


(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If none of those is available---I cant support just taking a flyer on some all sports Sunbelt or CUSA school with our fingers crossed that it will work out.

Many of us agree that BYU, Army, Boise, & Air Force would be good options, and that they would be acceptable to the conference.

It also seems very unlikely that there is any qualified/potential all-sports member from the Sunbelt, CUSA, or any conference, except BYU or San Diego State, both of which are probably too far away to be full members.

However, a strong case, based on objective criteria (e.g., overall winning % over the past decade, top 25 teams, numerous bowl games in the past decade) can also be made for San Diego State (10 consecutive bowl games, 3 ranked teams (2016, 207, & 2019)), Marshall (7 bowls (6-1) & 2 top 25 teams (2014 and 2020) since 2011), Appalachian State (5 bowls (5-0) & 3 ranked teams (2018, 2019, & 2020)), and Louisiana-Lafayette(7 bowls (5-2) since 2011; current top 25 team).

All four of these schools compare favorably with Army (4 bowls (4-0); 2 ranked teams (2018 and 2020) and Air Force (6 bowls (3-3); one ranked team (2019) since 2011).

NOTE:

1) San Diego State (10 bowls (100%))
has played in more bowl games than BYU (8 (80%)) and Boise State (8 (80%)) have played in over the past decade. Marshall 7 (70%) and Louisiana 7 (70%) are right behind, and Appalachian State (83.3%) has gone to 5 bowl games in their 6 years as an FBS program.

2) Appalachian State (5-0), Marshall (6-1), and Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2) have won a higher percentage of their bowl games than BYU (4-4) and Boise State (5-3) have won in the past decade.

3) Although BYU has had 5 ranked teams in the past decade, none of these teams have finished in the AP Top 25.


.

Summary:

Of the four teams listed above (BYU, Boise State, Army, & Air Force), none have played in a significantly greater number (%) of bowl games during the past decade than have SDSU, Marshall, App. State, or Louisiana.

Two (BYU (10 ranked teams) & Boise State (5 ranked teams)) of the four FB schools listed above have had more ranked teams than Army (2), Air Force (1), SDSU (3), App State (3), Marshall (2), and Louisiana (1).

.

Conclusion:

San Diego State, Marshall, Appalachian State, and Louisiana are among the nation's strongest non-P5 FBS schools.

Unlike BYU, Boise St., Army, Air Force (and possibly SDSU), Marshall, App St., and Louisiana would be likely to accept an offer to join the AAC as FB-only members.

Thus, if it is a high enough priority for the AAC to replace UConn FB with a high quality FB program, and if none of the four teams listed above are interested in joining the conference, there are likely to be at least three available options.

None of the options outside of BYU/Boise/Army and possibly Air Force aid the AAC in their goal of being perceived as an emerging P6 conference. It’s just that simple. “Brand” is the important concept here you seem to be ignoring. There is a reason the schools currently considered acceptable are judged to be acceptable—-and it’s not about how many bowl games they have been to in the last few years.

Frankly, given the revenue shortfalls everyone has seen during Covid—I cant imagine there is any great desire within the conference to split revenue with a 12th member unless that member is a real value adding proposition like BYU or Boise.



There is an expression:

"Don't make the perfect the enemy of the good."
(Don't hold out for the cutest girl in school to go on a date with you when there are other attractive girls who would gladly go out with you.)

Refusing to add a team that isn't one of its top choices ("the perfect"), when there are other good choices available ("the good") might turn out to be harmful to the conference's best long-term interests (especially its broadcasting deal with ESPN) if, say, the Big 12 takes one or two of the top AAC schools, leaving it gravely diminished with only 9 or 10 teams.

Adding a good FB and BB school would be like buying an insurance policy that would protect against the risk that the conference might lose its 12-year ESPN package if it were to lose one or two of its best sports schools.

.

Some might say:

"Fine. It would be better to lose one or two of our top schools (e.g., Cincinnati and Memphis) than it would be to replace UConn with a Marshall, Louisiana, or App State, because we're still hoping that BYU, Boise, Army, or Air Force will decide to join the conference, eventually."

"Besides, we'll still have the option to add one of the other schools after we lose a couple schools to realignment."

But there are two problems with this logic:

First, it assumes that BYU, Boise, Army, or AF will suddenly change their mind and petition for membership at some point in the future - - which is probably an unrealistic expectation - - or that some other amazing non-P5 school will suddenly emerge from out of nowhere to become the next Notre Dame, and that they will want to join the AAC. These are both examples of what's known as "magical thinking."

Second, it may not be quite so easy to persuade the best available non-P5 FBS schools to join the conference a few years from now, if the AAC no longer has a powerhouse team such as Cincinnati, which would probably cause ESPN to renegotiate its deal with the conference, resulting in a significantly lower revenue stream from ESPN.

After all, the travel costs for the AAC are among the highest in the nation, due to the long distances, and were listed as one of the key reasons why UConn chose to leave the conference. Much of the network revenue has to be spent on travel costs. If a potential member isn't going to be any better off financially, and is going to face stiffer competition, they might decide it's not worth it to join.

The American Athletic Conference has a lot more bargaining power now than it will have if it loses one of its top teams to realignment
, and since there is a very real risk of losing one or two teams, the most prudent thing to do would be to make a strategic move sooner, rather than later.

"Buy the insurance policy" by adding a quality FB and BB school. It's not like BYU, Boise, Army, or Air Force is waiting in line or knocking on the door - - and, even if they do knock on the door at some point, the conference could easily add another team or two to join the "14" club.
04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2020 04:45 AM by jedclampett.)
11-21-2020 04:23 AM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #27
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-16-2020 03:35 PM)colohank Wrote:  
(11-16-2020 09:22 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-15-2020 08:18 PM)WhalerFan Wrote:  Just keep telling yourselves that and it'll still never come true. The fate is sealed with the latest contract. The AAC will never be a power conference.

Sounds like "sour grapes" to me, coming from a UConn fan...

Cut WhalerFan some slack. He's just basking in the glow of a UConn football team that's enjoying an undefeated season for the first time in program history.

Or just another troll.
11-21-2020 05:03 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #28
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-21-2020 04:23 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 04:15 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 02:07 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
We are looking to replace a
well known state flagship school that features solid academics, a blueblood premium basketball program, and one of the worst football programs in FBS.

If the conference is willing to replace UConn's FB program with a FB-only school, it would not be difficult to find a school with a much better FB program than UConn ([i]a school that has, on average, been ranked 60 or 70 ranks ahead of UConn since 2013.

Similarly, it wouldn't be difficult to find a top 30 or top 35 quality FB school that would be highly competitive with the upper-tier of the conference and would also be interested in joining the AAC. There are a few schools that meet those criteria (see below).

The conference's expressed intention is to bring aboard one of the strongest non-P5 FB schools in the country.

The main topic of discussion is, simply: Which non-P5 FBS schools have the strongest FB programs?

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We need a school (j.c. insert: or FB & BB schools (see below)) that has (or have) a combination of academic/brand value/basketball value/football value that is as strong or better than UConn. To my knowledge, no single school exists that would satisfy all those requirements---that would also accept an invite to join the AAC right now.

True. This being the case, the conference would be most likely to add a FB school (like Navy) and a BB school (like Wichita State), given that Commissioner Aresco has recently stated in a radio interview that the conference does not prefer to continue on much longer with only 11 FB & BB schools.

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
To me, all options are on the table, including a split invite
(football only+basketball only). Right now, my favorite is BYU "football only" and VCU "olympic sports only". Though less impressive, right now Army, Boise, and Air Force all could adequately fill that BYU spot.

Agree - - that would be a very satisfactory arrangement, BYU being the ideal FB school (due to their high viewership numbers), given that the travel distance might be prohibitive for BYU becoming an all-sports member.

VCU or Dayton would be great, as would St. Louis, which appears to be the highest-rated A-10 team this season.

VCU has the advantage of location (filling a regional gap along the eastern seaboard) and tapping a huge (12 million population) metropolitan market, and is a large public university, like UCF, USF, Memphis, Temple, WSU, ECU, Cincy, & Houston.

Other options would include Richmond (#2 preseason in A10; 24-7 last season) and Rhode Island (averaging 22.5 wins per season over the past 4 seasons, and 21+ wins per season over the past 6 seasons).


(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If none of those is available---I cant support just taking a flyer on some all sports Sunbelt or CUSA school with our fingers crossed that it will work out.

Many of us agree that BYU, Army, Boise, & Air Force would be good options, and that they would be acceptable to the conference.

It also seems very unlikely that there is any qualified/potential all-sports member from the Sunbelt, CUSA, or any conference, except BYU or San Diego State, both of which are probably too far away to be full members.

However, a strong case, based on objective criteria (e.g., overall winning % over the past decade, top 25 teams, numerous bowl games in the past decade) can also be made for San Diego State (10 consecutive bowl games, 3 ranked teams (2016, 207, & 2019)), Marshall (7 bowls (6-1) & 2 top 25 teams (2014 and 2020) since 2011), Appalachian State (5 bowls (5-0) & 3 ranked teams (2018, 2019, & 2020)), and Louisiana-Lafayette(7 bowls (5-2) since 2011; current top 25 team).

All four of these schools compare favorably with Army (4 bowls (4-0); 2 ranked teams (2018 and 2020) and Air Force (6 bowls (3-3); one ranked team (2019) since 2011).

NOTE:

1) San Diego State (10 bowls (100%))
has played in more bowl games than BYU (8 (80%)) and Boise State (8 (80%)) have played in over the past decade. Marshall 7 (70%) and Louisiana 7 (70%) are right behind, and Appalachian State (83.3%) has gone to 5 bowl games in their 6 years as an FBS program.

2) Appalachian State (5-0), Marshall (6-1), and Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2) have won a higher percentage of their bowl games than BYU (4-4) and Boise State (5-3) have won in the past decade.

3) Although BYU has had 5 ranked teams in the past decade, none of these teams have finished in the AP Top 25.


.

Summary:

Of the four teams listed above (BYU, Boise State, Army, & Air Force), none have played in a significantly greater number (%) of bowl games during the past decade than have SDSU, Marshall, App. State, or Louisiana.

Two (BYU (10 ranked teams) & Boise State (5 ranked teams)) of the four FB schools listed above have had more ranked teams than Army (2), Air Force (1), SDSU (3), App State (3), Marshall (2), and Louisiana (1).

.

Conclusion:

San Diego State, Marshall, Appalachian State, and Louisiana are among the nation's strongest non-P5 FBS schools.

Unlike BYU, Boise St., Army, Air Force (and possibly SDSU), Marshall, App St., and Louisiana would be likely to accept an offer to join the AAC as FB-only members.

Thus, if it is a high enough priority for the AAC to replace UConn FB with a high quality FB program, and if none of the four teams listed above are interested in joining the conference, there are likely to be at least three available options.

None of the options outside of BYU/Boise/Army and possibly Air Force aid the AAC in their goal of being perceived as an emerging P6 conference. It’s just that simple. “Brand” is the important concept here you seem to be ignoring. There is a reason the schools currently considered acceptable are judged to be acceptable—-and it’s not about how many bowl games they have been to in the last few years.

Frankly, given the revenue shortfalls everyone has seen during Covid—I cant imagine there is any great desire within the conference to split revenue with a 12th member unless that member is a real value adding proposition like BYU or Boise.



There is an expression:

"Don't make the perfect the enemy of the good."
(Don't hold out for the cutest girl in school to go on a date with you when there are other attractive girls who would gladly go out with you.)

Refusing to add a team that isn't one of its top choices ("the perfect"), when there are other good choices available ("the good") might turn out to be harmful to the conference's best long-term interests (especially its broadcasting deal with ESPN) if, say, the Big 12 takes one or two of the top AAC schools, leaving it gravely diminished with only 9 or 10 teams.

Adding a good FB and BB school would be like buying an insurance policy that would protect against the risk that the conference might lose its 12-year ESPN package if it were to lose one or two of its best sports schools.

.

Some might say:

"Fine. It would be better to lose one or two of our top schools (e.g., Cincinnati and Memphis) than it would be to replace UConn with a Marshall, Louisiana, or App State, because we're still hoping that BYU, Boise, Army, or Air Force will decide to join the conference, eventually."

"Besides, we'll still have the option to add one of the other schools after we lose a couple schools to realignment."

But there are two problems with this logic:

First, it assumes that BYU, Boise, Army, or AF will suddenly change their mind and petition for membership at some point in the future - - which is probably an unrealistic expectation - - or that some other amazing non-P5 school will suddenly emerge from out of nowhere to become the next Notre Dame, and that they will want to join the AAC. These are both examples of what's known as "magical thinking."

Second, it may not be quite so easy to persuade the best available non-P5 FBS schools to join the conference a few years from now, if the AAC no longer has a powerhouse team such as Cincinnati, which would probably cause ESPN to renegotiate its deal with the conference, resulting in a significantly lower revenue stream from ESPN.

After all, the travel costs for the AAC are among the highest in the nation, due to the long distances, and were listed as one of the key reasons why UConn chose to leave the conference. Much of the network revenue has to be spent on travel costs. If a potential member isn't going to be any better off financially, and is going to face stiffer competition, they might decide it's not worth it to join.

The American Athletic Conference has a lot more bargaining power now than it will have if it loses one of its top teams to realignment
, and since there is a very real risk of losing one or two teams, the most prudent thing to do would be to make a strategic move sooner, rather than later.

"Buy the insurance policy" by adding a quality FB and BB school. It's not like BYU, Boise, Army, or Air Force is waiting in line or knocking on the door - - and, even if they do knock on the door at some point, the conference could easily add another team or two to join the "14" club.
04-cheers

If the presidents wanted any of teams currently willing to join the AAC, they would have already been added. Instead, the presidents have opted for an 11 team league that pays each member slightly more money. You’re misinterpreting the president’s preference for a 12 team league with the idea that the presidents are now suddenly ready to take anyone to get to 12. The fact is the presidents have always preferred a 12 team league—-yet we remain at 11. That tells you all you need to know.
11-21-2020 10:49 AM
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shere khan Offline
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Post: #29
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-15-2020 08:35 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  
(11-15-2020 08:18 PM)WhalerFan Wrote:  Just keep telling yourselves that and it'll still never come true. The fate is sealed with the latest contract. The AAC will never be a power conference.

teams like Cincy, Memphis, Houston, UCF, etc refuse to jettison their football programs into purgatory just to boost basketball...Memphis would have never played in the Cotton Bowl if we listened to folks like you.

The idiots in Memphis tried hard though for 50 years
11-21-2020 10:53 AM
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Post: #30
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-21-2020 10:49 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 04:23 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 04:15 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 02:07 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
We are looking to replace a
well known state flagship school that features solid academics, a blueblood premium basketball program, and one of the worst football programs in FBS.

If the conference is willing to replace UConn's FB program with a FB-only school, it would not be difficult to find a school with a much better FB program than UConn ([i]a school that has, on average, been ranked 60 or 70 ranks ahead of UConn since 2013.

Similarly, it wouldn't be difficult to find a top 30 or top 35 quality FB school that would be highly competitive with the upper-tier of the conference and would also be interested in joining the AAC. There are a few schools that meet those criteria (see below).

The conference's expressed intention is to bring aboard one of the strongest non-P5 FB schools in the country.

The main topic of discussion is, simply: Which non-P5 FBS schools have the strongest FB programs?

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We need a school (j.c. insert: or FB & BB schools (see below)) that has (or have) a combination of academic/brand value/basketball value/football value that is as strong or better than UConn. To my knowledge, no single school exists that would satisfy all those requirements---that would also accept an invite to join the AAC right now.

True. This being the case, the conference would be most likely to add a FB school (like Navy) and a BB school (like Wichita State), given that Commissioner Aresco has recently stated in a radio interview that the conference does not prefer to continue on much longer with only 11 FB & BB schools.

(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
To me, all options are on the table, including a split invite
(football only+basketball only). Right now, my favorite is BYU "football only" and VCU "olympic sports only". Though less impressive, right now Army, Boise, and Air Force all could adequately fill that BYU spot.

Agree - - that would be a very satisfactory arrangement, BYU being the ideal FB school (due to their high viewership numbers), given that the travel distance might be prohibitive for BYU becoming an all-sports member.

VCU or Dayton would be great, as would St. Louis, which appears to be the highest-rated A-10 team this season.

VCU has the advantage of location (filling a regional gap along the eastern seaboard) and tapping a huge (12 million population) metropolitan market, and is a large public university, like UCF, USF, Memphis, Temple, WSU, ECU, Cincy, & Houston.

Other options would include Richmond (#2 preseason in A10; 24-7 last season) and Rhode Island (averaging 22.5 wins per season over the past 4 seasons, and 21+ wins per season over the past 6 seasons).


(11-20-2020 08:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If none of those is available---I cant support just taking a flyer on some all sports Sunbelt or CUSA school with our fingers crossed that it will work out.

Many of us agree that BYU, Army, Boise, & Air Force would be good options, and that they would be acceptable to the conference.

It also seems very unlikely that there is any qualified/potential all-sports member from the Sunbelt, CUSA, or any conference, except BYU or San Diego State, both of which are probably too far away to be full members.

However, a strong case, based on objective criteria (e.g., overall winning % over the past decade, top 25 teams, numerous bowl games in the past decade) can also be made for San Diego State (10 consecutive bowl games, 3 ranked teams (2016, 207, & 2019)), Marshall (7 bowls (6-1) & 2 top 25 teams (2014 and 2020) since 2011), Appalachian State (5 bowls (5-0) & 3 ranked teams (2018, 2019, & 2020)), and Louisiana-Lafayette(7 bowls (5-2) since 2011; current top 25 team).

All four of these schools compare favorably with Army (4 bowls (4-0); 2 ranked teams (2018 and 2020) and Air Force (6 bowls (3-3); one ranked team (2019) since 2011).

NOTE:

1) San Diego State (10 bowls (100%))
has played in more bowl games than BYU (8 (80%)) and Boise State (8 (80%)) have played in over the past decade. Marshall 7 (70%) and Louisiana 7 (70%) are right behind, and Appalachian State (83.3%) has gone to 5 bowl games in their 6 years as an FBS program.

2) Appalachian State (5-0), Marshall (6-1), and Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2) have won a higher percentage of their bowl games than BYU (4-4) and Boise State (5-3) have won in the past decade.

3) Although BYU has had 5 ranked teams in the past decade, none of these teams have finished in the AP Top 25.


.

Summary:

Of the four teams listed above (BYU, Boise State, Army, & Air Force), none have played in a significantly greater number (%) of bowl games during the past decade than have SDSU, Marshall, App. State, or Louisiana.

Two (BYU (10 ranked teams) & Boise State (5 ranked teams)) of the four FB schools listed above have had more ranked teams than Army (2), Air Force (1), SDSU (3), App State (3), Marshall (2), and Louisiana (1).

.

Conclusion:

San Diego State, Marshall, Appalachian State, and Louisiana are among the nation's strongest non-P5 FBS schools.

Unlike BYU, Boise St., Army, Air Force (and possibly SDSU), Marshall, App St., and Louisiana would be likely to accept an offer to join the AAC as FB-only members.

Thus, if it is a high enough priority for the AAC to replace UConn FB with a high quality FB program, and if none of the four teams listed above are interested in joining the conference, there are likely to be at least three available options.

None of the options outside of BYU/Boise/Army and possibly Air Force aid the AAC in their goal of being perceived as an emerging P6 conference. It’s just that simple. “Brand” is the important concept here you seem to be ignoring. There is a reason the schools currently considered acceptable are judged to be acceptable—-and it’s not about how many bowl games they have been to in the last few years.

Frankly, given the revenue shortfalls everyone has seen during Covid—I cant imagine there is any great desire within the conference to split revenue with a 12th member unless that member is a real value adding proposition like BYU or Boise.



There is an expression:

"Don't make the perfect the enemy of the good."
(Don't hold out for the cutest girl in school to go on a date with you when there are other attractive girls who would gladly go out with you.)

Refusing to add a team that isn't one of its top choices ("the perfect"), when there are other good choices available ("the good") might turn out to be harmful to the conference's best long-term interests (especially its broadcasting deal with ESPN) if, say, the Big 12 takes one or two of the top AAC schools, leaving it gravely diminished with only 9 or 10 teams.

Adding a good FB and BB school would be like buying an insurance policy that would protect against the risk that the conference might lose its 12-year ESPN package if it were to lose one or two of its best sports schools.

.

Some might say:

"Fine. It would be better to lose one or two of our top schools (e.g., Cincinnati and Memphis) than it would be to replace UConn with a Marshall, Louisiana, or App State, because we're still hoping that BYU, Boise, Army, or Air Force will decide to join the conference, eventually."

"Besides, we'll still have the option to add one of the other schools after we lose a couple schools to realignment."

But there are two problems with this logic:

First, it assumes that BYU, Boise, Army, or AF will suddenly change their mind and petition for membership at some point in the future - - which is probably an unrealistic expectation - - or that some other amazing non-P5 school will suddenly emerge from out of nowhere to become the next Notre Dame, and that they will want to join the AAC. These are both examples of what's known as "magical thinking."

Second, it may not be quite so easy to persuade the best available non-P5 FBS schools to join the conference a few years from now, if the AAC no longer has a powerhouse team such as Cincinnati, which would probably cause ESPN to renegotiate its deal with the conference, resulting in a significantly lower revenue stream from ESPN.

After all, the travel costs for the AAC are among the highest in the nation, due to the long distances, and were listed as one of the key reasons why UConn chose to leave the conference. Much of the network revenue has to be spent on travel costs. If a potential member isn't going to be any better off financially, and is going to face stiffer competition, they might decide it's not worth it to join.

The American Athletic Conference has a lot more bargaining power now than it will have if it loses one of its top teams to realignment
, and since there is a very real risk of losing one or two teams, the most prudent thing to do would be to make a strategic move sooner, rather than later.

"Buy the insurance policy" by adding a quality FB and BB school. It's not like BYU, Boise, Army, or Air Force is waiting in line or knocking on the door - - and, even if they do knock on the door at some point, the conference could easily add another team or two to join the "14" club.
04-cheers

If the presidents wanted any of teams currently willing to join the AAC, they would have already been added. Instead, the presidents have opted for an 11 team league that pays each member slightly more money. You’re misinterpreting the president’s preference for a 12 team league with the idea that the presidents are now suddenly ready to take anyone to get to 12. The fact is the presidents have always preferred a 12 team league—-yet we remain at 11. That tells you all you need to know.

Agreed.
It isn't in fact news that Aresco is now saying "we would prefer a 12 team football conference with two even divisions." That's ALWAYS been the position.
Divisionless 11 is tough to schedule. Uneven divisions even tougher.
And yet here we are.

NOT making a bad move is a good move.
Making a bad move for the sake of movement is a bad move.

Making a move on a guess about unlikely future events is terrible. (2016 makes a case that 2025-26 will be about restructure of the CFP and not about realignment of teams and conferences. Making strategic decisions on an unlikely uncertainty which is definitely unpredictable? Disastrous)
11-21-2020 11:50 AM
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Off_The_Hook Offline
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Post: #31
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
The secret to being a P6 is getting a time machine to the 1990s with conference realignment and massive push for bowl games and a national championship game. Your school administration should've dumped money into the FB/Bball programs back then.
11-21-2020 02:35 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #32
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-21-2020 02:35 PM)Off_The_Hook Wrote:  The secret to being a P6 is getting a time machine to the 1990s with conference realignment and massive push for bowl games and a national championship game. Your school administration should've dumped money into the FB/Bball programs back then.

Sure. Because no one in this conference was already doing that random poster from 2017
11-21-2020 02:45 PM
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SMUleopold Offline
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Post: #33
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-20-2020 06:23 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(11-20-2020 05:05 PM)PirateJP Wrote:  Honestly the best thing the AAC can do to replace UConn is be patient. Don’t make any rush decisions to replace them. Are there good basketball teams out there? Yes! Are there good football teams out there? Yes! Is there a school out there that has both? Not currently! Sit tight for a few years and then reevaluate programs like Charlotte or Georgia St. Programs with the potential to be players but aren’t quite there yet.

Disagree. Patience doesn't get you anywhere in this world if you're trying to get ahead. You've got to grab the ball and run with it. That's how things get done.

Besides, Aresco has said some things recently, suggesting that the conference wouldn't prefer to go on with 11 teams, and might be likely to make some moves toward replacing UConn after this season.

Sure it does. It's called Tactical Patience - the Army teaches it to it's officers. Sometimes you have to let the game come to you.

That being said if the conference decides to act soon that's fine - App State and a number of other solid football programs are ready to join and that's the key to becoming P6.
11-23-2020 01:35 PM
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Post: #34
RE: The Secret To The AAC Being P6
(11-21-2020 10:49 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the presidents wanted any of teams currently willing to join the AAC, they would have already been added. Instead, the presidents have opted for an 11 team league that pays each member slightly more money. You’re misinterpreting the president’s preference for a 12 team league with the idea that the presidents are now suddenly ready to take anyone to get to 12. The fact is the presidents have always preferred a 12 team league—-yet we remain at 11. That tells you all you need to know.

Patience is a virtue.
11-23-2020 05:05 PM
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