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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #341
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 12:31 PM)TXHuskieJA26 Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 11:30 AM)HawaiiToNIU Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 11:26 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 11:11 AM)TXHuskieJA26 Wrote:  
(11-12-2020 08:56 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  Lorbeck was the second highest rated player on defense per PFF. Only Heflin scores higher.

Have you ever read PFF's "rating guide"?? It's a very, very long explanation of how they have guys watch and give their opinion via a point system. It's not factual at at all. What is factual are stats. In 2019 as a full time starter Lorbeck had 15 tackles, 19 assists, 5.5 TFLs, 2 Sacks & 1 QB hit. That's basically 3 total tackles per game with a TFL every other game and a sack every 6 games for a guy who was NEVER double teamed, NEVER shifted towards and NEVER chipped with a TE or RB because he was at best the 3rd highest priority for the offense along the front. Quintin Wynne had essentially the same stats last year, do you hear anyone crying out for "if only Wynne was back this year we would be better."

Nothing personal against Lorbeck, I'm sure he is a great dude, but to act like him leaving is hurting NIU.....Kennedy vs CMU had the same sack/QB hit production in one game that Lorbeck had all of last year.

So your opinion > PFF and Iowa’s recruiting staff. I mean, maybe you know more. I don’t know your background. But I’m going to side with people who do it for their living.

Amen.

The only opinion I gave was that Lorbeck is probably a great guy. I listed stats. And Iowa's recruiting staff has nothing to do with Lorbeck being there. He wanted to go there and they said "long as you don't want anything from us we won't stop you." He isn't on scholarship and he will never see the field for Iowa. (Yes, that last part is an opinion. He has 8 guys who rated higher than him out of HS than he did as a grad transfer, and they have 3 more coming in next year including a ESPN 300 4 star, doesn't seem conducive to him getting PT)

Pretty sure scouts and evaluators go a little beyond stats. But it’s all just
Opinion. Here’s 247’s opinion for what it’s worth-
“ The 6-foot-4, 255-pound senior-to-be was among the most effective pass rushers in the country last season. ”
11-13-2020 01:48 PM
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BigChilla Online
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Post: #342
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 01:48 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 12:31 PM)TXHuskieJA26 Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 11:30 AM)HawaiiToNIU Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 11:26 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 11:11 AM)TXHuskieJA26 Wrote:  Have you ever read PFF's "rating guide"?? It's a very, very long explanation of how they have guys watch and give their opinion via a point system. It's not factual at at all. What is factual are stats. In 2019 as a full time starter Lorbeck had 15 tackles, 19 assists, 5.5 TFLs, 2 Sacks & 1 QB hit. That's basically 3 total tackles per game with a TFL every other game and a sack every 6 games for a guy who was NEVER double teamed, NEVER shifted towards and NEVER chipped with a TE or RB because he was at best the 3rd highest priority for the offense along the front. Quintin Wynne had essentially the same stats last year, do you hear anyone crying out for "if only Wynne was back this year we would be better."

Nothing personal against Lorbeck, I'm sure he is a great dude, but to act like him leaving is hurting NIU.....Kennedy vs CMU had the same sack/QB hit production in one game that Lorbeck had all of last year.

So your opinion > PFF and Iowa’s recruiting staff. I mean, maybe you know more. I don’t know your background. But I’m going to side with people who do it for their living.

Amen.

The only opinion I gave was that Lorbeck is probably a great guy. I listed stats. And Iowa's recruiting staff has nothing to do with Lorbeck being there. He wanted to go there and they said "long as you don't want anything from us we won't stop you." He isn't on scholarship and he will never see the field for Iowa. (Yes, that last part is an opinion. He has 8 guys who rated higher than him out of HS than he did as a grad transfer, and they have 3 more coming in next year including a ESPN 300 4 star, doesn't seem conducive to him getting PT)

Pretty sure scouts and evaluators go a little beyond stats. But it’s all just
Opinion. Here’s 247’s opinion for what it’s worth-
“ The 6-foot-4, 255-pound senior-to-be was among the most effective pass rushers in the country last season. ”

I mean...I have eyes and don’t think Lorbeck was super effective here. I know what good football looks like, and it isn’t Lorbeck.

I also know what good food tastes like - yet I am not a chef. A Chef can tell me raw liver is good, but I don’t believe their opinion is better than my opinion that it isn’t good.

The only facts we have to go on in football are his stats, and his stats weren’t it. They want so bad for analytics to be a thing in football they make stuff up - but the truth is football might be the one sport you can’t sabermetric your way to a title.

Lorbeck didn’t seem like a bad teammate or dude - and it is sad to see him go. But he also didn’t seem like a good football player so he isn’t a major loss. That’s it.

By the way, Iowa telling him that he is allowed to walk on is not the same as wanting him.
11-13-2020 02:12 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #343
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 02:12 PM)BigChilla Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 01:48 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 12:31 PM)TXHuskieJA26 Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 11:30 AM)HawaiiToNIU Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 11:26 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  So your opinion > PFF and Iowa’s recruiting staff. I mean, maybe you know more. I don’t know your background. But I’m going to side with people who do it for their living.

Amen.

The only opinion I gave was that Lorbeck is probably a great guy. I listed stats. And Iowa's recruiting staff has nothing to do with Lorbeck being there. He wanted to go there and they said "long as you don't want anything from us we won't stop you." He isn't on scholarship and he will never see the field for Iowa. (Yes, that last part is an opinion. He has 8 guys who rated higher than him out of HS than he did as a grad transfer, and they have 3 more coming in next year including a ESPN 300 4 star, doesn't seem conducive to him getting PT)

Pretty sure scouts and evaluators go a little beyond stats. But it’s all just
Opinion. Here’s 247’s opinion for what it’s worth-
“ The 6-foot-4, 255-pound senior-to-be was among the most effective pass rushers in the country last season. ”

I mean...I have eyes and don’t think Lorbeck was super effective here. I know what good football looks like, and it isn’t Lorbeck.

I also know what good food tastes like - yet I am not a chef. A Chef can tell me raw liver is good, but I don’t believe their opinion is better than my opinion that it isn’t good.

The only facts we have to go on in football are his stats, and his stats weren’t it. They want so bad for analytics to be a thing in football they make stuff up - but the truth is football might be the one sport you can’t sabermetric your way to a title.

Lorbeck didn’t seem like a bad teammate or dude - and it is sad to see him go. But he also didn’t seem like a good football player so he isn’t a major loss. That’s it.

By the way, Iowa telling him that he is allowed to walk on is not the same as wanting him.

He knows the coach there. I’m sure the guy was honest about his chances of getting in the team.

Maybe your eyes are looking for sacks, not seeing if he holds the edge and forces plays outside or never misses tackles or other nuances. He had about the same stat line as Corcoran(who had Smith opposite). So Im not saying that he was a world beater. But he was your best DE and starter. Without him you are worse. How much worse is irrelevant. Heflin could be here and it wouldn’t matter. The defense is much more fundamentally sound and talent isn’t an issue. But the agenda to say - anyone who left wasn’t that good - is dumb. Offense is what we should be addressing. Some people are trying to bury the bad offense coaching under bad talent.

Also, if you’re weak at safety or DE, you can get a transfer, right? Hammock has had two seasons now to find experienced help at those positions. It’s his job to fill weakness’s. Not to say - I need until 2022 to find a safety.
11-13-2020 03:00 PM
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BigChilla Online
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Post: #344
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 03:00 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 02:12 PM)BigChilla Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 01:48 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 12:31 PM)TXHuskieJA26 Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 11:30 AM)HawaiiToNIU Wrote:  Amen.

The only opinion I gave was that Lorbeck is probably a great guy. I listed stats. And Iowa's recruiting staff has nothing to do with Lorbeck being there. He wanted to go there and they said "long as you don't want anything from us we won't stop you." He isn't on scholarship and he will never see the field for Iowa. (Yes, that last part is an opinion. He has 8 guys who rated higher than him out of HS than he did as a grad transfer, and they have 3 more coming in next year including a ESPN 300 4 star, doesn't seem conducive to him getting PT)

Pretty sure scouts and evaluators go a little beyond stats. But it’s all just
Opinion. Here’s 247’s opinion for what it’s worth-
“ The 6-foot-4, 255-pound senior-to-be was among the most effective pass rushers in the country last season. ”

I mean...I have eyes and don’t think Lorbeck was super effective here. I know what good football looks like, and it isn’t Lorbeck.

I also know what good food tastes like - yet I am not a chef. A Chef can tell me raw liver is good, but I don’t believe their opinion is better than my opinion that it isn’t good.

The only facts we have to go on in football are his stats, and his stats weren’t it. They want so bad for analytics to be a thing in football they make stuff up - but the truth is football might be the one sport you can’t sabermetric your way to a title.

Lorbeck didn’t seem like a bad teammate or dude - and it is sad to see him go. But he also didn’t seem like a good football player so he isn’t a major loss. That’s it.

By the way, Iowa telling him that he is allowed to walk on is not the same as wanting him.

He knows the coach there. I’m sure the guy was honest about his chances of getting in the team.

Maybe your eyes are looking for sacks, not seeing if he holds the edge and forces plays outside or never misses tackles or other nuances. He had about the same stat line as Corcoran(who had Smith opposite). So Im not saying that he was a world beater. But he was your best DE and starter. Without him you are worse. How much worse is irrelevant. Heflin could be here and it wouldn’t matter. The defense is much more fundamentally sound and talent isn’t an issue. But the agenda to say - anyone who left wasn’t that good - is dumb. Offense is what we should be addressing. Some people are trying to bury the bad offense coaching under bad talent.

Also, if you’re weak at safety or DE, you can get a transfer, right? Hammock has had two seasons now to find experienced help at those positions. It’s his job to fill weakness’s. Not to say - I need until 2022 to find a safety.

I disagree about your hold the edge comment. Your god, PFF, was rating his pass rush, it his ability to hold the edge...which honestly was not his strong suit.

I can say with 100% certainty that I do not believe Lorebeck was good. I don’t believe his replacements are worse than he was. So no, he was not a loss on the field. I cannot speak to what he did in the locker room or if he was a leader.

Safety is a weak spot because they are so young - and add to that corner back. Hammock has failed there.

But this doesn’t change the fact the players who left were mostly non factors above their replacements (helfin is of course the exception.)

You can try to fit the Lorebeck narrative to say what you want, but the fact is he wasn’t good by the way of stats, or in my opinion the eye test.

I am not saying Hammock hasn’t failed to this point, but I can say the transfers don’t matter and hammock can’t use those as an excuse.

The talent is good. Coaching needs to catch up.
11-13-2020 04:53 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #345
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 04:53 PM)BigChilla Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 03:00 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  He knows the coach there. I’m sure the guy was honest about his chances of getting in the team.

Maybe your eyes are looking for sacks, not seeing if he holds the edge and forces plays outside or never misses tackles or other nuances. He had about the same stat line as Corcoran(who had Smith opposite). So Im not saying that he was a world beater. But he was your best DE and starter. Without him you are worse. How much worse is irrelevant. Heflin could be here and it wouldn’t matter. The defense is much more fundamentally sound and talent isn’t an issue. But the agenda to say - anyone who left wasn’t that good - is dumb. Offense is what we should be addressing. Some people are trying to bury the bad offense coaching under bad talent.

Also, if you’re weak at safety or DE, you can get a transfer, right? Hammock has had two seasons now to find experienced help at those positions. It’s his job to fill weakness’s. Not to say - I need until 2022 to find a safety.

I disagree about your hold the edge comment. Your god, PFF, was rating his pass rush, it his ability to hold the edge...which honestly was not his strong suit.

I can say with 100% certainty that I do not believe Lorebeck was good. I don’t believe his replacements are worse than he was. So no, he was not a loss on the field. I cannot speak to what he did in the locker room or if he was a leader.

Safety is a weak spot because they are so young - and add to that corner back. Hammock has failed there.

But this doesn’t change the fact the players who left were mostly non factors above their replacements (helfin is of course the exception.)

You can try to fit the Lorebeck narrative to say what you want, but the fact is he wasn’t good by the way of stats, or in my opinion the eye test.

I am not saying Hammock hasn’t failed to this point, but I can say the transfers don’t matter and hammock can’t use those as an excuse.

The talent is good. Coaching needs to catch up.

This is probably the first time I’ve ever referenced PFF. But no, they weren’t specifically assessing his pass rush. They analyze every single play based on execution - “We believe that repeatedly executing one’s assignments is more valuable in the long run than highlight-reel plays.”-PFF

Talent in the MAC is almost identical team to team. So even if Perez or Lorbeck or Brinkman or Mckie or Harbison arent more talented than the new guys on the field they may have helped with their experience or leadership.

You win the Mac with coaching and 1 or 2 Break out stars. The rosters are all the same talent wise for 8 to 10 teams. I hope you’re not expecting the 2022 team to look like some crazy athletic group where all the wrs are 6’3” and run 4.4s and the LBs are 240 with 44” vertical. It’s still gonna be mostly 2 star kids on the roster and it’s going to take great coaching to make them winners. Let’s hope Hammock is that great coach.
11-13-2020 06:15 PM
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thetachihuskie Offline
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Post: #346
RE: CMU Game Thread
2021 ratings of our 20 recruits show 4 2* players, 2 players who have not been rated yet, and 14 3* players. So the majority are 3* and usually re rankings tend to go up as the year goes on. This does not include Georgia RB Brown, our highest ranking recruit to date as he is not listed in 247 sports commit list (yet!)
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2020 08:19 PM by thetachihuskie.)
11-13-2020 08:17 PM
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Post: #347
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 08:17 PM)thetachihuskie Wrote:  2021 ratings of our 20 recruits show 4 2* players, 2 players who have not been rated yet, and 14 3* players. So the majority are 3* and usually re rankings tend to go up as the year goes on. This does not include Georgia RB Brown, our highest ranking recruit to date as he is not listed in 247 sports commit list (yet!)

The talent coming in is much better than under Carey. Not an issue with Hammock.

Coaching them is an issue. I have a concern that Hammock and his staff are totally unprepared in the second half.

In fact, the worst part is 99% of the problem is on offense. Coach Hammock was an OC and offensive coach his whole career. I don’t see how we aren’t better - or at the very least how we aren’t improving in some areas!
11-13-2020 08:23 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #348
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 08:17 PM)thetachihuskie Wrote:  2021 ratings of our 20 recruits show 4 2* players, 2 players who have not been rated yet, and 14 3* players. So the majority are 3* and usually re rankings tend to go up as the year goes on. This does not include Georgia RB Brown, our highest ranking recruit to date as he is not listed in 247 sports commit list (yet!)

Carey had a real clunker of a class in 16. That did no favors for Hammock in 19/20. Let’s see if Hammock can get us to the top class in the Mac soon. His class was 8th last year(understandably for first year) and 4th so far for 20.

Speaking of the 20 class, why did he take his two best safety recruits and make them LBs? That does seem like playing for the future and not the present.
11-13-2020 09:16 PM
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NIU05 Offline
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RE: CMU Game Thread
Two best safety recruits at Lb? You're kidding right. Rayner is going to be a star at LB.
11-13-2020 09:27 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #350
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 09:27 PM)NIU05 Wrote:  Two best safety recruits at Lb? You're kidding right. Rayner is going to be a star at LB.

Appolon and Jackson.
11-13-2020 09:34 PM
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TXHuskieJA26 Offline
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Post: #351
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 09:16 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 08:17 PM)thetachihuskie Wrote:  2021 ratings of our 20 recruits show 4 2* players, 2 players who have not been rated yet, and 14 3* players. So the majority are 3* and usually re rankings tend to go up as the year goes on. This does not include Georgia RB Brown, our highest ranking recruit to date as he is not listed in 247 sports commit list (yet!)

Carey had a real clunker of a class in 16. That did no favors for Hammock in 19/20. Let’s see if Hammock can get us to the top class in the Mac soon. His class was 8th last year(understandably for first year) and 4th so far for 20.

Speaking of the 20 class, why did he take his two best safety recruits and make them LBs? That does seem like playing for the future and not the present.

This is a little off the actual topic but it's just something I find really interesting year in and year out. 247 has a really goofy way of doing their team rankings. You only get full credit for your top recruit. With each recruit after that you get less and less % credit for their recruiting score. To me the true value of a recruiting class is an aggregate of all the players, not a weird formula where most of your guys full value is ignored. Does that just make no sense to anyone else???
11-13-2020 11:55 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #352
RE: CMU Game Thread
(11-13-2020 11:55 PM)TXHuskieJA26 Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 09:16 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(11-13-2020 08:17 PM)thetachihuskie Wrote:  2021 ratings of our 20 recruits show 4 2* players, 2 players who have not been rated yet, and 14 3* players. So the majority are 3* and usually re rankings tend to go up as the year goes on. This does not include Georgia RB Brown, our highest ranking recruit to date as he is not listed in 247 sports commit list (yet!)

Carey had a real clunker of a class in 16. That did no favors for Hammock in 19/20. Let’s see if Hammock can get us to the top class in the Mac soon. His class was 8th last year(understandably for first year) and 4th so far for 20.

Speaking of the 20 class, why did he take his two best safety recruits and make them LBs? That does seem like playing for the future and not the present.

This is a little off the actual topic but it's just something I find really interesting year in and year out. 247 has a really goofy way of doing their team rankings. You only get full credit for your top recruit. With each recruit after that you get less and less % credit for their recruiting score. To me the true value of a recruiting class is an aggregate of all the players, not a weird formula where most of your guys full value is ignored. Does that just make no sense to anyone else???

I think it’s less about judging the class you recruited and more about evaluating how well your school is doing in attracting the better ranked athletes. It doesn’t care if you find a diamond in the rough no one wanted. It wants to know how many kids who had multiple choices chose you. It makes sense I suppose if your evaluating where say NIU is relative to other schools in getting top athletes. As we know better than most, rankings are very deceptive in that 2 star-low 3 star area. So it kinda makes sense just to evaluate how high of a ranked athlete you can get as opposed to how many projects you can find.
11-14-2020 08:37 AM
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