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Week 11 Sunbelt Projections
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CajunFan3406 Offline
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Post: #41
Week 11 Sunbelt Projections
(11-10-2020 12:16 PM)TrueBlueAlum Wrote:  
(11-10-2020 09:01 AM)CajunFan3406 Wrote:  
(11-10-2020 07:01 AM)FrankyP Wrote:  
(11-09-2020 05:23 PM)TrueBlueAlum Wrote:  
(11-09-2020 03:40 PM)CajunFan3406 Wrote:  While I appreciate you guys' optimism in the Cajuns, they haven't beaten a team by 20 this year. The only way that's happening vs USA is if the Cajuns team that played Iowa State shows up this Saturday. While I definitely take the Cajuns to win my prediction is by 7-10 pts.

You guys had 2 special teams TD's in that game too. so a 17-14 score is probably a more appropriate gauge of just standard offense/defense in that game. That's about par for the course for us too. Uninspired.
Well, I agree and wish it weren’t so, but this will be another tight game, and the Cajuns will ‘only’ win by 7-10 points. But it does bug me when someone tries to minimizes ST scores. Last I heard those points count just as much as all the other ways a team can score. And UL has done it enough to prove it’s not just a fluke.

Correct. We lead the conference in KO return average and are the only team to even have a KO return TD, and we have 2, both by Smith.
Garror hasn't really replicated the punt return magic of Week 1, but my understanding with Napier and punt returns has always been placing the higher priority on making the catch than worrying about the return, so that would explain why we are mostly middling in that category.

I wasn't minimizing special teams, in fact I was crediting how important they are to winning games - we've had two punt returns this season and won one of our games because of it. Like ours - UL's offense / defense is built similarly. Right now you're playing good defense, but your offense leaves a little to be desired (though it's still better than ours); however, the determining factor in your win against Iowa State were those special teams TDs.

You've only had a ST's touch in 2 of your 7 games. So my point, which I think is valid, is that asking "the team that beat Iowa State" to show up is synonymous with "we have to score a special teams TD" to win by more than 7-10 points - which in my opinion is not a reliable or sustainable metric.


I was the first poster in this thread to throw out the “7-10 pts” number. Knowing full well that the last “big” win the Cajuns had was 2 months ago and partially due to 2 ST TDs. The comment about the Iowa St game was largely in reference to the defense’s performance as I haven’t seen them come close to replicating that performance this year. Is that a reliable enough metric?
11-12-2020 07:07 AM
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TrueBlueAlum Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Week 11 Sunbelt Projections
(11-12-2020 07:07 AM)CajunFan3406 Wrote:  I was the first poster in this thread to throw out the “7-10 pts” number. Knowing full well that the last “big” win the Cajuns had was 2 months ago and partially due to 2 ST TDs. The comment about the Iowa St game was largely in reference to the defense’s performance as I haven’t seen them come close to replicating that performance this year. Is that a reliable enough metric?

Hey look - you guys are capable of learning.

But seriously, I think you guys have played pretty solid defense most all season. I will say for Iowa State that game seems to be an outlier for their offense. Since your game they've averaged 7.5 yards per play - you held them to 4.27. I'm not diminishing your defensive they've been pretty good this year.
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2020 09:11 AM by TrueBlueAlum.)
11-12-2020 09:08 AM
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