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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #41
RE: US House thread
(11-21-2020 08:50 AM)solohawks Wrote:  CA-21 has been called for GOP.

GOP up to 210 with 4 more to go.
The GOP candidate conceded in NJ-07.

It’s currently 222-210 with 3 more to go. Check me, but the last I heard the GOP led in all 3 of them.
11-21-2020 09:10 AM
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solohawks Online
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RE: US House thread
(11-21-2020 09:10 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(11-21-2020 08:50 AM)solohawks Wrote:  CA-21 has been called for GOP.

GOP up to 210 with 4 more to go.
The GOP candidate conceded in NJ-07.

It’s currently 222-210 with 3 more to go. Check me, but the last I heard the GOP led in all 3 of them.

Didn't know the GOP candidate conceded in the NJ race. RCP is slacking

The GOP does lead on all 3 remaining races by razor thin margins. The IA race is under recount
11-21-2020 09:49 AM
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solohawks Online
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RE: US House thread
If the GOP does win these last 3 seats, the Anti Pelosi wing of the party will have to put up or shut up. My fear is that they make a symbolic vote of PRESENT. Pelosi can afford 8 of those assuming all of the GOP votes for the same candidate.

If they are truly anti Pelosi, they will be in a position to force change


CURRENT RCP COUNT as of 11/21
DEM - 222
GOP - 210

CURRENT ANTI PELOSI COUNT
211
210 GOP + 1 CONFIRMED ANTI PELOSI DEMS

GOP has 3 undecided seats to grow that 210 number

SEATS STILL OUTSTANDING - 3
CA-25 - GOP UP 400 votes mail in ballots still being accepted - GOP candidate has claimed victory but Dem candidate has not conceded
IA-02 - GOP UP 47 votes - recount in process
NY-22 - GOP UP 250 votes ballots being contested - BD DEM ANTI PELOSI IN 2019

CONFIRMED ANTI PELOSI
Elisa Slotkin (MI-08) - W by 3.6% - voted PRESENT in 2019 https://www.nationalreview.com/news/mode...e-speaker/

MOST LIKELY ANTI PELOSI - VOTED AGAINST PELOSI IN 2019
Abigail Spanberger (VA-07) - W by 1.8% - BD DEM
Conor Lamb (PA-17) - W by 2.2%
Ron Kind (WI-03) - W by 2.8%
Jared Golden (ME-02) - W by 5.8% - BD DEM
Kurt Schrader (OR-05) - W by 7.3% - BD DEM
Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11) - W by 7.6% - BD DEM
Jim Cooper (TN-05) - W Unopposed - BD DEM - voted PRESENT in 2019

LIKELY ANTI PELOSI IF THEY WIN - VOTED AGAINST PELOSI IN 2019
Anthony Brindisi (NY-22) - UNCALLED, LOSING by 250 Votes - BD DEM

AGAINST PELOSI IN 2019 - UNSURE FOR 2021
Kathleen Rice (NY-04) - W by 6.5%
Jason Crow (CO-06) - W by 17.1%

BLUE DOG DEMOCRATS TO WATCH BUT SUPPORTED PELOSI IN 2019
Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15) - W by 2.9%
Tom O'Halleran (AZ-1) - W by 3.2%
Charlie Crist (FL-13) - W by 6%
Josh Gottheimer (NJ-5) - W by 7.9%

OTHER BLUE DOG DEMOCRATS
Stephanie Murphy (FL-07) - W by 12%
Sanford Bishop (GA-02) - W by 18.2%
Jim Costa (CA-16) - W by 18.6%
Brad Schneider (IL-10) - W by 21.8%
Lou Correa (CA-46) - W by 37.6%
Ed Case (HI-01) - W by 44%
David Scott (GA-13) - W by 54.8%
Mike Thompson (CA-05) - W by 55.2%
(This post was last modified: 11-23-2020 02:22 PM by solohawks.)
11-21-2020 09:55 AM
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solohawks Online
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Post: #44
RE: US House thread
So for these last 3, we might not know the results until Thanksgiving. But they could lead a very intriguing scenario.

Worst case scenario for GOP right now is 225-210 with 11 Dems returning to Congress that voted against Pelosi. 9 of these voted symbolically against Pelosi with another candidate, while 2 voted PRESENT in 2019.
If that 225 to 210 margin comes to pass, the Dems would need 2 additional Dems to vote PRESENT instead of for an actual candidate.
Only 7 Dems could cast a symbolic vote against Pelosi.
The 4 PRESENT votes would reduce the amount needed to win from 218 to 214.
Pelosi would be speaker with a zero margin for error 214-210 vote with 4 voting PRESENT and 7 voting for another Dem.
Getting 4 of the 11 Dems to vote for PRESENT instead of listing an alternative probably won't be that hard BUT ya never know.

Best case scenario for the GOP is 222 to 213 with 10 Dems returning to Congress that voted against Pelosi. 8 of these voted symbolically against Pelosi with another candidate, while 2 voted PRESENT in 2019.
If that 222 to 213 margin comes to pass, the Dems would need 8 PRESENT votes and 2 of the 10 would actually have to vote for Pelosi.
There could be 0 symbolic votes against unless more than 2 were actually willing to vote for Pelosi.
The 8 PRESENT votes would reduce teh amount needed to win from 218 to 210
Pelosi would be speaker with a zero margin for error 214-213 vote with 8 voting PRESENT, 0 voting for another Dem and 2 former Anti Pelosi Dems bailing her out.

With 2022 looking to be an AWFUL House year for the Dems, it will be interesting to see if:
1. More Dems are willing to vote PRESENT when they could block Pelosi from becoming speaker.
2. If Anti Pelosi Dems are willing to vote for her in exchange for concessions knowing it might be a 2022 campaign issue they might lose
11-23-2020 02:59 PM
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MileHighBronco Offline
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Post: #45
RE: US House thread
(11-15-2020 07:53 PM)shere khan Wrote:  
(11-10-2020 04:00 PM)Bearcat419 Wrote:  
(11-10-2020 03:57 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Democrat concedes to Michelle Steel ® for a California US House Seat.

This is a traditional Republican district, but it's a positive R flip

Steel, along with one other Rep, will be the first Korean American in Congress.

Diversity makes us all better, regardless of party.

Diversity of thought and ideas, yes. Diversity based on race as the measuring stick is....inherently ..racist.

and Democrat in its origins.
11-23-2020 03:16 PM
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CrimsonPhantom Offline
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Post: #46
RE: US House thread


11-23-2020 04:11 PM
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