Trump only won his first term because he flipped blue collar union workers in the Rust Belt from D to R.

Even if Trump loses this election, the bleed out is now going deeper into the Democratic coalition. Gay men may support the R by an outright majority next cycle. Black men may not be very far behind. Both groups have inexorably marched away from the DNC for the past four consecutive elections. The only place the DNC is actually holding onto their minority coalition is Hispanics, and that comes with the Cuban caveat in Miami-Dade. They projected D+10 in the House. We may land on R+10 by the time we're done. The Democrats will have collectively spent nearly a half billion dollars on Senate races .... and so far that has produced exactly one net change: Hickenlooper won and he was going to win anyway even without outside help. And by the way Hickenlooper was HUGELY trounced attempting to run for POTUS in the Democratic Party. Hickenlooper was the only gain ... and he's a borderline pariah in his own party at the federal level. Hickenlooper is pro-fracking and drank well injection fluid (!!!) made by Halliburton (!!!) to show its efficacy in front of the press.

I've spent a fair amount of time looking at the per-county results and demographic breakdowns. From my former life inside political campaigns I can tell you the data has to make you crap your pants right now if you're the DNC. You had all the money on Earth. You emptied the bench for the POTUS contest. You spent four years wailing incessantly against the weakest POTUS since Carter. And all you have to show for it is maybe limping home against Trump and falling behind everywhere else.

There is only one growth portion of the DNC: California expats turning AZ/CO/ID/MT/TX less red by the year. But that's not a true long term growth strategy. California will begin it's official West Virginia-esk diaspora after this census. And just like how first generation Hispanic migrants are Democrats who give birth to second generation Hispanic Republicans .... I suspect the Californians who move would produce second generation Republicans fairly often.

So long as the Democratic Party is the party of socialism, the party of anti-science on fracking and the economy, and the party that keeps score by race and sexuality instead of character and content .... they're going to keep evaporating into irrelevancy.

Not that I take much joy in what the Republican Party has become in the process. Because in onboarding all these new coalitions the Republican Party has largely thrown overboard economic stewardship, and failed to grab the obvious low hanging fruit begging to be picked like drug and criminal justice reform.

Even if Biden/Harris wins (and we are a long way from that even happening) they are going to have to outperform Trump on the black agenda that Trump got through. (Criminal Justice reform, wage increases, lower taxes, historic low unemployment) Otherwise, that will be an anvil around their neck that will cause them to bleed support.

It would help if Biden would stop calling them predators and corn pop.

Hope you are right. Graham's challenger and Mitch's both had 100 Million each and got smoked.

(11-06-2020 12:18 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Trump only won his first term because he flipped blue collar union workers in the Rust Belt from D to R.

Even if Trump loses this election, the bleed out is now going deeper into the Democratic coalition. Gay men may support the R by an outright majority next cycle. Black men may not be very far behind. Both groups have inexorably marched away from the DNC for the past four consecutive elections. The only place the DNC is actually holding onto their minority coalition is Hispanics, and that comes with the Cuban caveat in Miami-Dade. They projected D+10 in the House. We may land on R+10 by the time we're done. The Democrats will have collectively spent nearly a half billion dollars on Senate races .... and so far that has produced exactly one net change: Hickenlooper won and he was going to win anyway even without outside help. And by the way Hickenlooper was HUGELY trounced attempting to run for POTUS in the Democratic Party. Hickenlooper was the only gain ... and he's a borderline pariah in his own party at the federal level. Hickenlooper is pro-fracking and drank well injection fluid (!!!) made by Halliburton (!!!) to show its efficacy in front of the press.

I've spent a fair amount of time looking at the per-county results and demographic breakdowns. From my former life inside political campaigns I can tell you the data has to make you crap your pants right now if you're the DNC. You had all the money on Earth. You emptied the bench for the POTUS contest. You spent four years wailing incessantly against the weakest POTUS since Carter. And all you have to show for it is maybe limping home against Trump and falling behind everywhere else.

There is only one growth portion of the DNC: California expats turning AZ/CO/ID/MT/TX less red by the year. But that's not a true long term growth strategy. California will begin it's official West Virginia-esk diaspora after this census. And just like how first generation Hispanic migrants are Democrats who give birth to second generation Hispanic Republicans .... I suspect the Californians who move would produce second generation Republicans fairly often.

So long as the Democratic Party is the party of socialism, the party of anti-science on fracking and the economy, and the party that keeps score by race and sexuality instead of character and content .... they're going to keep evaporating into irrelevancy.

Not that I take much joy in what the Republican Party has become in the process. Because in onboarding all these new coalitions the Republican Party has largely thrown overboard economic stewardship, and failed to grab the obvious low hanging fruit begging to be picked like drug and criminal justice reform.

Not much to add. Great post.

The exit polls say Trump gained everywhere but white men. Doesn't make sense that he would lose with that unless the Republicans just got beat on turnout.

The Democrats have given a middle finger to blue collar workers. To police and fire fighters. And to patriots. For that matter, they have told true liberals to sit down and shut up. They no longer believe in civil liberties (only civil "rights").

And I can't figure out how he lost with white men unless it was 70/80 year olds scared of Covid and 20 somethings who didn't vote before.

(11-06-2020 12:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  The exit polls say Trump gained everywhere but white men. Doesn't make sense that he would lose with that unless the Republicans just got beat on turnout.

The Democrats have given a middle finger to blue collar workers. To police and fire fighters. And to patriots. For that matter, they have told true liberals to sit down and shut up. They no longer believe in civil liberties (only civil "rights").

And I can't figure out how he lost with white men unless it was 70/80 year olds scared of Covid and 20 somethings who didn't vote before.

No, Trump did significantly worse with women, which are the majority of the vote casting public. He was down more than 15 points in the split with women.

Democrats have cities, blacks, college educated, Hispanics, unions, the poor, & a good chunk of the corporate elite.


It's an uphill battle. When all said & done, that black % is gonna go way down for Trump

The only thing of consequence Obama did in 8 years was hijack healthcare. Joe & Ho won’t do anything but blame Trump for any and every thing for 3’years and then Ho will run on needing more time.

On the bright side, they have boxed themselves in on her being the 2024 nominee, you can’t set the black/Indian/Canadian woman aside. I can’t see her winning as the main candidate and not just Sideshow Bob.

(11-06-2020 12:31 PM)banker Wrote:  The only thing of consequence Obama did in 8 years was hijack healthcare. Joe & Ho won’t do anything but blame Trump for any and every thing for 3’years and then Ho will run on needing more time.

On the bright side, they have boxed themselves in on her being the 2024 nominee, you can’t set the black/Indian/Canadian woman aside. I can’t see her winning as the main candidate and not just Sideshow Bob.

3% Dem support and that’s before she runs Trump’s roaring economy into the ground

(11-06-2020 12:31 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Democrats have cities, blacks, college educated, Hispanics, unions, the poor, & a good chunk of the corporate elite.


It's an uphill battle. When all said & done, that black % is gonna go way down for Trump

Edited for accuracy:
Urban cores, black women, academia workers, a light and unstable majority of hispanics, a minority of unions, the poor, the corporate C-suite.

(11-06-2020 12:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  The exit polls say Trump gained everywhere but white men. Doesn't make sense that he would lose with that unless the Republicans just got beat on turnout.

The Democrats have given a middle finger to blue collar workers. To police and fire fighters. And to patriots. For that matter, they have told true liberals to sit down and shut up. They no longer believe in civil liberties (only civil "rights").

And I can't figure out how he lost with white men unless it was 70/80 year olds scared of Covid and 20 somethings who didn't vote before.

Yuppy men going blue IMO. My son in law is a perfect example. He is a young attorney from a very conservative background..Eagle Scout...ect... I don't understand how this happened.

(11-06-2020 12:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  The exit polls say Trump gained everywhere but white men. Doesn't make sense that he would lose with that unless the Republicans just got beat on turnout.

The Democrats have given a middle finger to blue collar workers. To police and fire fighters. And to patriots. For that matter, they have told true liberals to sit down and shut up. They no longer believe in civil liberties (only civil "rights").

And I can't figure out how he lost with white men unless it was 70/80 year olds scared of Covid and 20 somethings who didn't vote before.

18-29 year old soy beta males? The Edison exit polling had 2 point drop overall for white males.

(11-06-2020 12:30 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-06-2020 12:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  The exit polls say Trump gained everywhere but white men. Doesn't make sense that he would lose with that unless the Republicans just got beat on turnout.

The Democrats have given a middle finger to blue collar workers. To police and fire fighters. And to patriots. For that matter, they have told true liberals to sit down and shut up. They no longer believe in civil liberties (only civil "rights").

And I can't figure out how he lost with white men unless it was 70/80 year olds scared of Covid and 20 somethings who didn't vote before.

No, Trump did significantly worse with women, which are the majority of the vote casting public. He was down more than 15 points in the split with women.

Hadn't heard that.

(11-06-2020 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-06-2020 12:30 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(11-06-2020 12:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  The exit polls say Trump gained everywhere but white men. Doesn't make sense that he would lose with that unless the Republicans just got beat on turnout.

The Democrats have given a middle finger to blue collar workers. To police and fire fighters. And to patriots. For that matter, they have told true liberals to sit down and shut up. They no longer believe in civil liberties (only civil "rights").

And I can't figure out how he lost with white men unless it was 70/80 year olds scared of Covid and 20 somethings who didn't vote before.

No, Trump did significantly worse with women, which are the majority of the vote casting public. He was down more than 15 points in the split with women.

Hadn't heard that.

Trump did a standard deviation worse among suburban women in particular.

(11-06-2020 12:31 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Democrats have cities, blacks, college educated, Hispanics, unions, the poor, & a good chunk of the corporate elite.


It's an uphill battle. When all said & done, that black % is gonna go way down for Trump

As someone who knows a lot of union workers in Ohio I can tell you that that’s not true. The union leaders still want the workers to vote democrat but they were for Trump in a big way.

I don’t buy much from the exit polling. There was no way he was down 15% with women and still ended with the vote total he did unless he gained with every other demo. Women are the largest voting block. You simply can’t have 15% of that support run off and get the same percentage of the overall vote.

(11-06-2020 12:35 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(11-06-2020 12:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  The exit polls say Trump gained everywhere but white men. Doesn't make sense that he would lose with that unless the Republicans just got beat on turnout.

The Democrats have given a middle finger to blue collar workers. To police and fire fighters. And to patriots. For that matter, they have told true liberals to sit down and shut up. They no longer believe in civil liberties (only civil "rights").

And I can't figure out how he lost with white men unless it was 70/80 year olds scared of Covid and 20 somethings who didn't vote before.

Yuppy men going blue IMO. My son in law is a perfect example. He is a young attorney from a very conservative background..Eagle Scout...ect... I don't understand how this happened.

2008 recession. Endless wars. Its understandable when the Clinton economy was good and then we have the messes in Iraq and Afghanistan and the recession. The Depression generation was the most Democratic ever. The Post Jimmy Carter generation was the most Republican since before the Great Depression.

Its not likely now that we have 8 full years of a Trump economy vs. the Obama stagnation, but I was hoping that would turn that around in the 25 and under crowd.

I still don't think Gen Z is going to be as blue as the Xers and Millenials. The Democrats are hostile to their interests with all the shutdowns. And they continue to ignore the non-college educated people who work for a living. And those people ARE the majority. Democrats are also hostile to small business.

What's hard to understand is how the Democrats have gone full scale socialist instead of Clintonesque or 2004-2008 Obamaesque.

(11-06-2020 12:51 PM)banker Wrote:  I don’t buy much from the exit polling. There was no way he was down 15% with women and still ended with the vote total he did unless he gained with every other demo. Women are the largest voting block. You simply can’t have 15% of that support run off and get the same percentage of the overall vote.

You can if you double your black women vote from 4 to 8 and increase the black male vote above 20%. And then win over 20% of the LGBT vote including over 40% of gay men.

Yes, he literally gained EVERYWHERE except women (suburban women in particular). Hispanics was roughly a wash ... he did a little worse out West but really did shockingly well with the Cubans in FL. Outside of those two specific groups Trump did better across the board.

(11-06-2020 12:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-06-2020 12:35 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(11-06-2020 12:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  The exit polls say Trump gained everywhere but white men. Doesn't make sense that he would lose with that unless the Republicans just got beat on turnout.

The Democrats have given a middle finger to blue collar workers. To police and fire fighters. And to patriots. For that matter, they have told true liberals to sit down and shut up. They no longer believe in civil liberties (only civil "rights").

And I can't figure out how he lost with white men unless it was 70/80 year olds scared of Covid and 20 somethings who didn't vote before.

Yuppy men going blue IMO. My son in law is a perfect example. He is a young attorney from a very conservative background..Eagle Scout...ect... I don't understand how this happened.

2008 recession. Endless wars. Its understandable when the Clinton economy was good and then we have the messes in Iraq and Afghanistan and the recession. The Depression generation was the most Democratic ever. The Post Jimmy Carter generation was the most Republican since before the Great Depression.

Its not likely now that we have 8 full years of a Trump economy vs. the Obama stagnation, but I was hoping that would turn that around in the 25 and under crowd.

I still don't think Gen Z is going to be as blue as the Xers and Millenials. The Democrats are hostile to their interests with all the shutdowns. And they continue to ignore the non-college educated people who work for a living. And those people ARE the majority. Democrats are also hostile to small business.

I'm a millennial & the bold is exactly it. Add to it some social issues like marijuana legalization

(11-06-2020 12:49 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  

(11-06-2020 12:31 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  Democrats have cities, blacks, college educated, Hispanics, unions, the poor, & a good chunk of the corporate elite.


It's an uphill battle. When all said & done, that black % is gonna go way down for Trump

As someone who knows a lot of union workers in Ohio I can tell you that that’s not true. The union leaders still want the workers to vote democrat but they were for Trump in a big way.

MI unions appear to still be solid Blue.