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RE: A proposal to join the AAC (FB-only) that might appeal to BYU and AAC members
(11-29-2020 05:20 PM)jedclampett Wrote: (11-29-2020 02:38 PM)Tulsa Guy Wrote: (11-29-2020 02:30 PM)jedclampett Wrote:
NOTE: The following is a continuation of a discussion that began in another thread, but is more pertinent here.
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If Commissioner Aresco and the AAC leadership (Presidents, Trustees) were really on the ball with respect to their expressed interests in BYU and their long-term strategic plan for the conference, this might be an effective way to proceed:
I: Establish a joint consensus, as an organization, that the only reason why BYU would strongly consider joining the AAC would be as part of a strategic plan of their own to propel themselves (i.e., BYU) toward power conference status.
II: The AAC Commissioner would invite BYU to discuss a proposal for them to join the AAC, based on a foundational agreement that, by joining, BYU could advance toward power conference status in one of two ways:
A) By affiliating with the AAC, BYU could assist the AAC to develop, gradually, into a full-fledged (P6/A6) power conference.
This would include a contingency plan stipulating that, if the addition of BYU and a 12th BB school isn't sufficient to advance the AAC toward P6/A6 status (e.g., a substantial increase in network revenue per school) by a date certain, the conference would agree to pursue expansion to 13 or 14 teams per sport via the addition of one or more top 30 quality FB schools and one or more NCAA tournament quality BB schools.
B) Alternatively (e.g., if the AAC should fail to advance toward P6/A6 status), by joining the conference, BYU would have the opportunity to increase their national stature - - by competing for conference championships and advancing to NY6 bowls - - which would probably lassist them to become an affiliate (like Notre Dame/ACC) or member of an existing P5 conference.
Neither BYU or Boise State will join AAC until there is an AAC binding agreement. Why join the AAC when it might implode in a few years by losing its best teams to B12 expansion? Everyone is going to have to wait until the B12 renegotiates its TV contract and makes its decision on expansion. Then, and only then, is a binding agreement possible...but I am not sure about that if some AAC schools feel there is an opportunity to move up to a P5 conference.
Apparently, there are only 3 or 4 schools that have objected to a binding agreement, because they don't want to foreclose on the possibility of a P5 invitation before 2026.
However, the actual probability that they will receive a P5 invitation is likely to be rather slight.
Let's begin with Cincinnati. Of the top-tier AAC schools, Cincinnati is the only school that has maintained fairly consistent P5-quality FB and BB programs over the past few years. However, despite their successes, Cincy isn't necessarily a highly attractive expansion option from the standpoint of the ACC, Big Ten, PAC-12, or SEC.
Why? Because the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC are all rather full at present, with 14-15 teams apiece. No AAC school - - not even Cincy (the top FB and only all-time elite AAC BB school) - - would be certain enough to generate more value than they would cost in future conference payouts to persuade the current members of the Big Ten and SEC to raid the AAC. Moreover, Cincy is neither a highly/academically prestigious school, nor an AAU institution, and these are regarded as important considerations for all of the P5 conferences.
With 15 teams, the ACC may have the least interest in a further expansion, which would make it even harder than it already is for ACC teams to compete in FB and BB, and it is questionable whether the top AAC school would provide more value than they would cost.
With respect to the PAC-12 (9 AAU schools), Cincy is unlikely to be an expansion option, given that it is not located in the Pacific, Mountain, or Central time zone. For that matter, none of the AAC schools is in the Pacific or Mountain time zone, none (except Tulane) is an AAU school, and few, if any fit the overall academic or cultural profile of the PAC-12.
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That leaves the Big 12 as the P5 conference that would be most likely to expand by inviting Cincy or one or more of the other AAC schools.
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The major question with respect to the Big 12 is whether the benefits of expansion would outweigh the costs, with the main cost being the reduction in annual revenue, per school, due to being required to allocate ~$40+ million per year to any expansion members.
What we know, most definitely at present, is that the Big 12 gave the idea of expanding very thorough consideration in 2016, going so far as to winnow down a list of potential expansion candidates and review their credentials, including some AAC schools. Their decision was to reject the proposal to expand, with one of the major reasons for their decision being a cost/benefit analysis, which indicated that the costs of expansion would outweigh the potential benefits. Another factor was that they were able to proceed as a full-fledged P5/A5 conference, to hold a conference FB championship, and to maintain their NY6 automatic qualification status.
Unless the value that would be added to the "benefits" side of the cost/benefit analysis has increased sufficiently since 2016, or unless the Big 12 has undergone a change of mind regarding their priorities going forward, it is unlikely that any AAC school will be invited to join the Big 12 before 2026.
[color=#1E90FF]If the Big 12 were to expand, which team or teams would they select, not including Cincinnati (which might be the strongest potential FB/BB candidate as of mid-2020)?
Houston would seem like the best regional and cultural fit, due to their location and former membership in the Southwest Conference. However Houston's FB program would probably have to scale back up to P5 quality within the next year or two for UH to have any chance of being given serious consideration.
Memphis might be given strong consideration, due in part to location (roughly equidistant between Big 12 schools such as Iowa State, WVU, Kansas, and Oklahoma) and the near-P5 quality of their FB program. However, Memphis has been knocked out of the CFB top 25 and hasn't been impressive in 2020, while their BB program has yet to establish itself as having the potential to maintain consistent NCAA tournament quality.
UCF would perhaps be the last of the four likeliest contenders (if SMU is ruled out, due to their history of NCAA FB/BB sanctions). However, UCF has lost 3 FB games in 2020, is not a top 25 contender, and hasn't contended for an AAC FB championship or finished in the FB top 20 since 2018. UCF has only had one BB team in the NCAA tournament since 2006, and the geographical distance involved with UCF as an all-sports member would add significantly to the cost-side of the equation for the Big 12.
That would seem to leave Cincinnati as the AAC school with the strongest (or only realistic) chance to get a Big 12 invitation. However, Cincinnati was rejected as a potential Big 12 member when they were considered (summer/fall 2016), despite the fact that their BB program's record of success was just as solid as it is today, while their FB program had actually won a higher percentage of their games in recent years (69.7%) than it has won since that time (63.2%). Although the 2018-20 Bearcats have had an outstanding FB record, this alone might not be enough to persuade the Big 12 that the benefits of adding Cincinnati would outweigh the costs.
One of the "cost" factors is the fact that Cincinnati isn't a perfect fit with the Big 12, geographically or culturally, and doesn't bring the advantages of being an AAU or academically prestigious school. In addition, the Big 12 may be wary of adding another former Big East FB school that, like WVU, might have difficulty maintaining a P5 level FB program in the Big 12.
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In summary, with the possible exception of Cincinnati, no AAC school currently has what would be widely considered a P5 quality football and basketball program. The other AAC schools that have resisted making a binding broadcasting agreement (e.g., Houston, UCF, and Memphis) have had either a P5 quality football or basketball program, but not both.
For these reasons, unless the Big 12 were to unexpectedly make a complete about-face with respect to Cincinnati, should the FB Bearcats maintain a top 15 or top 20 FB program over the next few years, it seems very unlikely that they will reverse their 2016 decision not to invite any AAC schools to join the Big 12.
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Based on this line of reasoning, there would be a very compelling argument for the 4 AAC schools that have resisted the idea of making a binding broadcasting agreement to consider suspending their resistance to the idea or holding it in abeyance long enough to enter into at least preliminary discussions with BYU's leadership along the lines set forth above.
Specifically, any objections that BYU might have about considering an affiliation with the AAC, due to the resistance of four AAC schools to make a binding broadcasting agreement could be set aside by all concerned long enough to determine whether there is strong enough interest to proceed with detailed discussions.
A strong argument could be made to the leaders of those four AAC schools that, as with the old adage that "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush," it makes little sense for those four schools to hold out for a low probability event (getting an unexpected invitation to join a P5 by 2026) when they could benefit substantially in the short, medium, and long-term from a much higher probability event (i.e., if BYU were to show a strong inclination to join the AAC).
Another way of putting it is that, in the absence of any evidence to the contrary since the Big 12's 2016 decision not to expand, there appears to be no factual evidence to support maintaining an unwillingness to at least consider discussing a proposal to replace Connecticut with a strong and high viewership FB school such as BYU, even if that were to require a willingness to rescind a prior decision not to make any binding broadcasting agreements. To foreclose on the possibility of making a strong move toward eventual power conference status, based on nothing more than a magical hope for what currently appears to be an improbable outcome would be folly.
Who knew blue font was an option and why has this been kept from us?!?
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