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Over Under on EV -- your prediction
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #1
Over Under on EV -- your prediction
No arguments pro or con, too late for that anyway, it's voting day. Polls will start closing in about 6 hours. Pretty much everyone has voted already.

So who will win and what will their EV totals be?


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/

last tracker results from Morning Consult
https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s...#section-5


My prediction is last minute voters almost always break for the challenger (we saw that four years ago), so Ohio, Texas and Iowa move from toss up to Biden.

Biden 413
Trump 125

Tie-breaker vote percentages (Winner, then loser if need be)

Biden 53.2 %
Trump 43.8 %

Side bet, Democrats pick up a net of 4 Senate seats. New Senate 52-48 Democrats
11-03-2020 02:29 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Over Under on EV -- your prediction
(11-03-2020 02:29 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  No arguments pro or con, too late for that anyway, it's voting day. Polls will start closing in about 6 hours. Pretty much everyone has voted already.
So who will win and what will their EV totals be?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/
last tracker results from Morning Consult
https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s...#section-5
My prediction is last minute voters almost always break for the challenger (we saw that four years ago), so Ohio, Texas and Iowa move from toss up to Biden.
Biden 413
Trump 125
Tie-breaker vote percentages (Winner, then loser if need be)
Biden 53.2 %
Trump 43.8 %
Side bet, Democrats pick up a net of 4 Senate seats. New Senate 52-48 Democrats

If you are right, then I'm officially looking for a new country.
11-03-2020 04:07 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Over Under on EV -- your prediction
Trump and the GOP did a much better job with day of election voters than expected. Looks like Biden will get 306 EV (AZ and GA likely) and Trump 232 (NC likely). Looks like both Biden and Trump pulled about 6 million more votes than their party did in 2016.

Senate is 50-48 GOP with Georgia runoffs deciding. I think Perdue has an edge but Loeffler does not. Both could well lose in a turnout based runoff.

The House is 218 Democrat, 203 Republican. Of the 14 not called, but one is a runoff in Louisiana of two Republicans. At a minimum the GOP will pick up 3 seats, but I think they'll actually gain 8 or 9 when all is said and done.

Republicans generally ran ahead of Trump in most districts which is fascinating. Provided Trump exits the stage relatively gracefully (fat chance), they will be poised to regain the House and build a solid majority in the Senate (Dems are defending more seats in 2022, and off election tend to go against the party in the White House) with only an average off election pick up (e.g., 3 Senate and 12 House Seats).

The demographic shifts played out more than I expected, and I was surprised Ohio stayed Republican. Florida I misread like many in the press. But Biden himself, and his staff did not pour many resources into Florida, as they saw it as an unlikely flip -- they had better intel than we did, and I should have paid attention. Texas for the Democrats is like Pennsylvania used to look for the Republicans, tantalizingly close to flipping but still farther away than it looks.

Anyway, surprisingly good ground game by the President. One of the best vote harvesting campaigns ever, and made what should have been a rout into a relatively close election.
11-11-2020 05:19 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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RE: Over Under on EV -- your prediction
Just now seeing this thread.

I will always believe this presidential election was decided by fraud in a handful of key states. But under the prevailing system that we have in place, Joe Biden (!) will become the 46th President.

I don’t believe I posted my predictions anywhere online. But anyway, the 4 states I got wrong were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I had Florida and N.C. for Trump, and I had Nevada/Wisconsin for Biden. All the other states were fairly obvious. So I was expecting an Electoral College result of Trump 296, Biden 242. I thought Trump would win all of Nebraska’s Electoral Votes.

I didn’t make a popular-vote prediction but if I had it probably would’ve been Biden 50, Trump 48. And honestly, I still think that is about what it would’ve been without fraud. But who knows. At any rate, the “official” count is Biden 51.4, Trump 46.9, Others 1.7.

I’m very intrigued by the fact that Biden won so many of the toss-up states and yet still lost North Carolina. I had N.C. as a stronger Dem. state than Georgia, Michigan or Pennsylvania. I wonder what happened there.

Also, I specifically predicted/believed that if Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio all voted for the same candidate, then that candidate would win the election. Even now, nearly 2 months later, I’m still honestly stunned that Trump swept all 3 of those yet still lost. Wow.

I live in Metro Atlanta, and most of the people I know were intensely for Biden. I didn’t read too much into that, because all of them had been for Clinton in 2016. I know several people (myself included) who did *Not* vote for Trump in 2016, but *Did* vote for Trump in 2020. And yet I don’t know of a single person who was for him last time and against him this time. That puzzled me, and still does, when I try to reconcile it with the National results.

A couple of days after the election, I asked someone (a Democrat) who is deeply involved in DeKalb Co. politics how the state/local/legislative elections went. They replied in two words: “A disaster.” Then he elaborated slightly: “A complete, total, fukcing disaster.” I honestly hadn’t paid any attention to that, and so his blunt appraisal was my first hint that the downballot races were simply awful for the Democrats. This has been corroborated by many other media-reports in the last few weeks. It’s also another incongruous element that puzzles me when I combine it with the Biden victory at the top of the ticket. It’s been years since I heard anyone admit they were “splitting” their ticket. Maybe 20 years or more. Hmmm.
12-27-2020 03:37 PM
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