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Over Under on EV -- your prediction
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Stugray2 Offline
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Over Under on EV -- your prediction
No arguments pro or con, too late for that anyway, it's voting day. Polls will start closing in about 6 hours. Pretty much everyone has voted already.

So who will win and what will their EV totals be?


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/

last tracker results from Morning Consult
https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s...#section-5


My prediction is last minute voters almost always break for the challenger (we saw that four years ago), so Ohio, Texas and Iowa move from toss up to Biden.

Biden 413
Trump 125

Tie-breaker vote percentages (Winner, then loser if need be)

Biden 53.2 %
Trump 43.8 %

Side bet, Democrats pick up a net of 4 Senate seats. New Senate 52-48 Democrats
11-03-2020 02:29 PM
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RE: Over Under on EV -- your prediction
(11-03-2020 02:29 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  No arguments pro or con, too late for that anyway, it's voting day. Polls will start closing in about 6 hours. Pretty much everyone has voted already.
So who will win and what will their EV totals be?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/
last tracker results from Morning Consult
https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s...#section-5
My prediction is last minute voters almost always break for the challenger (we saw that four years ago), so Ohio, Texas and Iowa move from toss up to Biden.
Biden 413
Trump 125
Tie-breaker vote percentages (Winner, then loser if need be)
Biden 53.2 %
Trump 43.8 %
Side bet, Democrats pick up a net of 4 Senate seats. New Senate 52-48 Democrats

If you are right, then I'm officially looking for a new country.
11-03-2020 04:07 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Over Under on EV -- your prediction
Trump and the GOP did a much better job with day of election voters than expected. Looks like Biden will get 306 EV (AZ and GA likely) and Trump 232 (NC likely). Looks like both Biden and Trump pulled about 6 million more votes than their party did in 2016.

Senate is 50-48 GOP with Georgia runoffs deciding. I think Perdue has an edge but Loeffler does not. Both could well lose in a turnout based runoff.

The House is 218 Democrat, 203 Republican. Of the 14 not called, but one is a runoff in Louisiana of two Republicans. At a minimum the GOP will pick up 3 seats, but I think they'll actually gain 8 or 9 when all is said and done.

Republicans generally ran ahead of Trump in most districts which is fascinating. Provided Trump exits the stage relatively gracefully (fat chance), they will be poised to regain the House and build a solid majority in the Senate (Dems are defending more seats in 2022, and off election tend to go against the party in the White House) with only an average off election pick up (e.g., 3 Senate and 12 House Seats).

The demographic shifts played out more than I expected, and I was surprised Ohio stayed Republican. Florida I misread like many in the press. But Biden himself, and his staff did not pour many resources into Florida, as they saw it as an unlikely flip -- they had better intel than we did, and I should have paid attention. Texas for the Democrats is like Pennsylvania used to look for the Republicans, tantalizingly close to flipping but still farther away than it looks.

Anyway, surprisingly good ground game by the President. One of the best vote harvesting campaigns ever, and made what should have been a rout into a relatively close election.
11-11-2020 05:19 PM
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