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GaryMatthews Online
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Post: #441
RE: Newest Conference Rumor/Discussion 2.0
(Today 10:23 AM)FBS Dave Wrote:  
(Today 08:57 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  I didn't mention Indy much because I have talked about it ad nauseum here and why I am opposed to it.
I definitely don't expect you to go rummaging through my past posts so here are my thoughts on Indy:
1. JMU admin has always been pro-conference. They really value the importance of conferences. They do not want to go Indy in any capacity. For that reason alone this discussion is pointless.
2. If Indy were so great, why doesn't everyone just go Indy? Liberty desperately wanted to be in the SunBelt. Years after trying they had to settle for going Indy. There are only a small amount of schools that can pull off going Independent. We are not Notre Dame, nor will we ever be.
3. Money. JMU cannot afford to go Indy. Liberty can afford to go Indy. First, you get no income from the money coming in from a conference as you have none (Yes, they would be getting income from being CAA in every other sport, but as you are well aware football makes a lot of money and media deals are no joke). JMU isn't big enough to establish a media deal that would bring in massive revenue. Liberty on the other hand has their own media company.
4. Scheduling. Money would have to be spent on scheduling. An average school has to make deals with only about 3-4 schools a season as the rest of their season is determined by the conference. Indys have to make deals with every single opponent. Schedule regionally then! Well, here's the problem: there are no guarantees. One year JMU could get over half of their schools within driving distance and another year have it so none of the away games are within driving distance. Therefore paying far more travel costs than usual. Some years they could get 6 home games and other years may be lucky to get 4 due to the way the scheduling deals land. Liberty for instance had such an EASY time scheduling, they had to play New Mexico State twice in a single year. That's ridiculous unless you're in 2020 (and they weren't). Also one year they only had 4 home games. Yeah, scheduling as an Indy is EASY. Please.
5. Uncertainty. Many talk about Indy as a way to get to a conference. But that is not a guarantee. Many of the opinions are in a best case scenario. Not everything is rainbows and roses. JMU could struggle and lose more than they win. Now they are stuck in Indy with no conference in sight. The AAC certainly won't be calling, that's for sure. Then what? While there is uncertainty, here's something that IS certain: JMU CANNOT sustain football as an Indy for a long period of time. What happens when that invite never comes? Well, I'll tell you what happens. They will have no other option but to go back to FCS. And if you think things are dire now, imagine what things would be like when JMU football has to retreat back to FCS. There may be no recovering from that.
1. JMU admin has always been pro-conference.

There are pluses and minuses to conferences. For all sports other than Football it seems more beneficial to have a conference. Keep the CAA or consider the A10.

2. If Indy were so great, why doesn't everyone just go Indy?

It's not a best fit for every situation. It's not as great as P5 because of the P5 money. Compared to G5 there is room to debate the fit for any given program. G5 revenue is low so that is not a great incentive. G5s are not as regionally based anymore, so if you go G5 for football you drag all of your sports into that travel footprint, increasing travel costs and putting more time commitment to the athletes.

Notre Dame is the most notable but probably the least relevant comparison. UConn and Army are two programs that have actively chosen Indy for football over a G5 conference. Those two programs are probably better benchmarks for JMU's position.

3. Money. JMU cannot afford to go Indy.

JMU is already at G5 costs. You are paying G5 costs for FCS schedules. JMU can afford Indy. The incremental costs are small and the revenue gain potential is large. One Buy-Game and costs are offset. Two Buy-Games and the bottom line is already increased. Financially it's a no-brainer.

4. Scheduling. Money would have to be spent on scheduling.

You would actually improve your finances through scheduling! As an FBS Indy you command $$$ for Buy-Games and you minimize travel costs with a regionally focused schedule. Not to mention increased revenue from interest (attendence, merchandise, etc.) and eventually a modest TV contract (like UConn).

5. Uncertainty. Many talk about Indy as a way to get to a conference. But that is not a guarantee.

The best part of Indy is it does not have to be a stepping stone. It is a better indefinite standing spot than FCS. The schedule is better, the interest is better, it is a growth track move, the finances are better, and the future opportunities are greater. Indy can be a long-term position, and if it ends up shorter-term it's only because the move created more opportunity.

I still don't think the scheduling/financials are as simple as you make them out to be. No doubt, away games against P5s can bring in a nice chunk of change, but don't you similarly have to pay a not-so-small amount for other schools to come to you for home games? Do 1-for-1's involve money? From what I've seen 2-for-1's do but you'll have to offset that 2nd away game somewhere also.

Do you or anyone else in the FBS Indy camp know enough fine details of scheduling to lay out a potential schedule including the financials involved? (Serious question, if someone does have that kind of knowledge I'm sure we'd all be interested in seeing that kind of info)
Today 11:12 AM
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JMad03 Offline
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Post: #442
RE: Newest Conference Rumor/Discussion 2.0
(Today 10:23 AM)FBS Dave Wrote:  
(Today 08:57 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  I didn't mention Indy much because I have talked about it ad nauseum here and why I am opposed to it.
I definitely don't expect you to go rummaging through my past posts so here are my thoughts on Indy:
1. JMU admin has always been pro-conference. They really value the importance of conferences. They do not want to go Indy in any capacity. For that reason alone this discussion is pointless.
2. If Indy were so great, why doesn't everyone just go Indy? Liberty desperately wanted to be in the SunBelt. Years after trying they had to settle for going Indy. There are only a small amount of schools that can pull off going Independent. We are not Notre Dame, nor will we ever be.
3. Money. JMU cannot afford to go Indy. Liberty can afford to go Indy. First, you get no income from the money coming in from a conference as you have none (Yes, they would be getting income from being CAA in every other sport, but as you are well aware football makes a lot of money and media deals are no joke). JMU isn't big enough to establish a media deal that would bring in massive revenue. Liberty on the other hand has their own media company.
4. Scheduling. Money would have to be spent on scheduling. An average school has to make deals with only about 3-4 schools a season as the rest of their season is determined by the conference. Indys have to make deals with every single opponent. Schedule regionally then! Well, here's the problem: there are no guarantees. One year JMU could get over half of their schools within driving distance and another year have it so none of the away games are within driving distance. Therefore paying far more travel costs than usual. Some years they could get 6 home games and other years may be lucky to get 4 due to the way the scheduling deals land. Liberty for instance had such an EASY time scheduling, they had to play New Mexico State twice in a single year. That's ridiculous unless you're in 2020 (and they weren't). Also one year they only had 4 home games. Yeah, scheduling as an Indy is EASY. Please.
5. Uncertainty. Many talk about Indy as a way to get to a conference. But that is not a guarantee. Many of the opinions are in a best case scenario. Not everything is rainbows and roses. JMU could struggle and lose more than they win. Now they are stuck in Indy with no conference in sight. The AAC certainly won't be calling, that's for sure. Then what? While there is uncertainty, here's something that IS certain: JMU CANNOT sustain football as an Indy for a long period of time. What happens when that invite never comes? Well, I'll tell you what happens. They will have no other option but to go back to FCS. And if you think things are dire now, imagine what things would be like when JMU football has to retreat back to FCS. There may be no recovering from that.
1. JMU admin has always been pro-conference.

There are pluses and minuses to conferences. For all sports other than Football it seems more beneficial to have a conference. Keep the CAA or consider the A10.

2. If Indy were so great, why doesn't everyone just go Indy?

It's not a best fit for every situation. It's not as great as P5 because of the P5 money. Compared to G5 there is room to debate the fit for any given program. G5 revenue is low so that is not a great incentive. G5s are not as regionally based anymore, so if you go G5 for football you drag all of your sports into that travel footprint, increasing travel costs and putting more time commitment to the athletes.

Notre Dame is the most notable but probably the least relevant comparison. UConn and Army are two programs that have actively chosen Indy for football over a G5 conference. Those two programs are probably better benchmarks for JMU's position.

3. Money. JMU cannot afford to go Indy.

JMU is already at G5 costs. You are paying G5 costs for FCS schedules. JMU can afford Indy. The incremental costs are small and the revenue gain potential is large. One Buy-Game and costs are offset. Two Buy-Games and the bottom line is already increased. Financially it's a no-brainer.

4. Scheduling. Money would have to be spent on scheduling.

You would actually improve your finances through scheduling! As an FBS Indy you command $$$ for Buy-Games and you minimize travel costs with a regionally focused schedule. Not to mention increased revenue from interest (attendence, merchandise, etc.) and eventually a modest TV contract (like UConn).

5. Uncertainty. Many talk about Indy as a way to get to a conference. But that is not a guarantee.

The best part of Indy is it does not have to be a stepping stone. It is a better indefinite standing spot than FCS. The schedule is better, the interest is better, it is a growth track move, the finances are better, and the future opportunities are greater. Indy can be a long-term position, and if it ends up shorter-term it's only because the move created more opportunity.

"There are pluses and minuses to conferences. For all sports other than Football it seems more beneficial to have a conference. "
It SEEMS. You are basing it on what it SEEMS. What about what it is? You are talking out of both sides of your mouth. You claim that there seems to be a benefit for all other sports but yet you don't see it when it comes to football? Come on. Your logic is flawed.
Many conferences are poorly put together and many of those conferences are not even considered by JMU for that reason. The travel costs are ridiculous. Not just for football.
Your justification to going Indy is that you could actually schedule more regional teams and I highly disagree. The more games we win, the harder it is to schedule- that is a fact. We already are being avoided by regional schools because they don't want to play us because they may lose. When you are a bad team or have that history of being a bad team, scheduling is MUCH easier.
Liberty had several seasons where there wasn't a single regional foe on their schedule! You want to tell me that that actually SAVED them money?
To get big schools to come play you, generally you have to agree with a 2 for 1 deal. Well, when you start making those deals, eventually it's going to bite you in the behind because there will be years where you will have to pay schools back by reducing the number of home games.

As for UCONN, their media deal has way more to do with their basketball program than it does their football program.
As for increased fan revenue, the difference at this time would be marginal. We are already getting fan support. Yes, we would get a few more than we do, but more likely the cost would come from the fans. The ticket prices would get hiked and why? To offset costs!

You are looking at this in the best case scenarios. You are not looking at this as if there any disadvantages to going Indy... and there are a ton.
Lastly, our admin puts our athletics in a good position. If the risk is too high, they do not place the program at risk. There are way too many risks to go Indy. Now if that was THE only way we could make it happen, I could see at least taking the risk.
But here's the thing: it is not the only way. It is not a risk worth taking. We are not Liberty. Conferences do want us, the problem is that there are media deals holding things from happening. When those media deals are over, programs are going to be moving and JMU will be one of them, if not sooner.
(This post was last modified: Today 11:18 AM by JMad03.)
Today 11:17 AM
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FBS Dave Online
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Post: #443
RE: Newest Conference Rumor/Discussion 2.0
(Today 11:17 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  "There are pluses and minuses to conferences. For all sports other than Football it seems more beneficial to have a conference. "
It SEEMS. You are basing it on what it SEEMS. What about what it is? You are talking out of both sides of your mouth. You claim that there seems to be a benefit for all other sports but yet you don't see it when it comes to football? Come on. Your logic is flawed.
Many conferences are poorly put together and many of those conferences are not even considered by JMU for that reason. The travel costs are ridiculous. Not just for football.
Your justification to going Indy is that you could actually schedule more regional teams and I highly disagree. The more games we win, the harder it is to schedule- that is a fact. We already are being avoided by regional schools because they don't want to play us because they may lose. When you are a bad team or have that history of being a bad team, scheduling is MUCH easier.
Liberty had several seasons where there wasn't a single regional foe on their schedule! You want to tell me that that actually SAVED them money?
To get big schools to come play you, generally you have to agree with a 2 for 1 deal. Well, when you start making those deals, eventually it's going to bite you in the behind because there will be years where you will have to pay schools back by reducing the number of home games.

As for UCONN, their media deal has way more to do with their basketball program than it does their football program.
As for increased fan revenue, the difference at this time would be marginal. We are already getting fan support. Yes, we would get a few more than we do, but more likely the cost would come from the fans. The ticket prices would get hiked and why? To offset costs!

You are looking at this in the best case scenarios. You are not looking at this as if there any disadvantages to going Indy... and there are a ton.
Lastly, our admin puts our athletics in a good position. If the risk is too high, they do not place the program at risk. There are way too many risks to go Indy. Now if that was THE only way we could make it happen, I could see at least taking the risk.
But here's the thing: it is not the only way. It is not a risk worth taking. We are not Liberty. Conferences do want us, the problem is that there are media deals holding things from happening. When those media deals are over, programs are going to be moving and JMU will be one of them, if not sooner.

Football is JMU’s best revenue potential. It’s only 12 or 13 games so the scheduling issue can be managed without too much difficulty. Look at what UConn has scheduled forward in its first year of Indy.

For all other sports a conference is convenient. It hopefully is regional so tennis, golf, volleyball, track etc can compete regionally with reasonable travel and expense. More buses and fewer flights.

UConn has a media deal specifically for football. It’s separate for basketball, which is Big East.

Some look at making a move with fear of risks. It’s human nature. The status quo can be comforting. Sometimes there is more risk in doing nothing. Coastal Carolina and App State and Liberty took risks in moving up.

Indy vs G5? You have already rejected the G5 offers. The ACC isn’t going to come knocking on an FCS program. The choice seems to be CAA or FBS Indy.
Today 01:11 PM
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FBS Dave Online
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Post: #444
RE: Newest Conference Rumor/Discussion 2.0
I'll state some obvious points here, which seems like it may be beneficial to some on this board:

P5 schools would not be afraid to schedule JMU or UConn or G5s as buy games. An SEC buy game might bring $1M to $1.5M per game. UGA is not afraid of JMU.

Being in the CAA, A10, or Big East allows you to operate either as a Indy or a Football-Only member of another conference. This is a unique loophole in the conference structure. You can't be a CUSA member and a Football-Only member of the AAC, because CUSA sponsors FBS Football. You can be a member of the CAA or A10 (or Patriot) and be a Football-Only member of the AAC (see Navy). Stepping up to Indy increases the likelihood of all other FBS opportunities.

Temple is an example of being in position for the AAC when the opportunity arose. Temple was traditionally independent and then was football-only in the Big East. They were kicked out of the Big East for failure to compete. Instead of giving up football or dropping down, they went MAC for a few years and realignment brought about a full membership in the AAC (actually the Big East during the period of the split). Temple would not have had that opportunity sitting in FCS. JMU will have less opportunity sitting in FCS.
Today 01:35 PM
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Bill Offline
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Post: #445
RE: Newest Conference Rumor/Discussion 2.0
(Today 10:00 AM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  Spot on. There is zero guarantee to get regional scheduling every year. Heck, we don’t have an opening until 2024 I believe, for the first few years it’d be tough sledding.

Here is a schedule of FBS teams that have room for 1 more OOC game in 2021 and their available dates:

9/4 - Maryland
9/11 - FL Intl
9/18 - MTSU
9/25 - Houston
10/2 - UCF
10/9 - bye
10/16 - S Miss
10/23 - UL Monroe
10/30 - UTSA
11/6 - UAB
11/13 - C MI
11/20 - Kent St
11/27 - U Conn

it's not as regional as it would be in later years, but I'd take that for a 1st year skej.
Today 02:39 PM
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FBS Dave Online
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Post: #446
RE: Newest Conference Rumor/Discussion 2.0
(Today 02:39 PM)Bill Wrote:  
(Today 10:00 AM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  Spot on. There is zero guarantee to get regional scheduling every year. Heck, we don’t have an opening until 2024 I believe, for the first few years it’d be tough sledding.

Here is a schedule of FBS teams that have room for 1 more OOC game in 2021 and their available dates:

9/4 - Maryland
9/11 - FL Intl
9/18 - MTSU
9/25 - Houston
10/2 - UCF
10/9 - bye
10/16 - S Miss
10/23 - UL Monroe
10/30 - UTSA
11/6 - UAB
11/13 - C MI
11/20 - Kent St
11/27 - U Conn

it's not as regional as it would be in later years, but I'd take that for a 1st year skej.

A strategy that UConn was successful chasing was breaking up an established game and playing both. For example, Liberty plays Army next year. You work with both teams, break that game, and play both Army and Liberty.

It gets easier the farther out you schedule.
Today 02:57 PM
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