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Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
In college sports realignment circles, there has of course been much discussion about how ground-shaking it would have been for the Texoma 4 to leave the Big 12 for the "Pac-16", but not much about the nuts and bolts of what might have occurred after. Here's my attempt. I don't claim it to be authoritative, so feel free to come up with your own timeline of events.

The TL;DR version:

FBS (2020)

[Image: 8cOUuzC.png]

The full version:

In June of 2010, after Colorado declares it will split for the Pac and Nebraska for the Big Ten, the Texoma 4 (OU, OSU, TT, UT) do indeed decide to join the Pac to make a Pac-16. Texas A&M was supposed to be along for the ride, but they would have none of that, leading to the Pac's selection of Utah to replace them. This occurs in spite of Baylor making an arse of themselves in attempting to either block the move or supplant another school to come with. The negotiations between the Texoma 4 and the Pac drag on into July, so while Colorado and Nebraska will depart the Big 12 in July 2011, the Texoma 4's move is delayed until July 2012. Incidentally, this also gives A&M time to make arrangements with the SEC, and Missouri is chosen as the SEC's 14th school as in our timeline.

With the Big 12 down to 10 schools by the 2011-12 season, and with 6 schools to depart the following season, the remaining 4 (Baylor, ISU, KU, KSU) scramble to retain their relevance. This precipitates an earlier separation between the Big East football-first and basketball-first schools. The ACC moves up their invite of Pitt and Syracuse to join in July 2012, and the remaining 6 Big East FB schools plus incoming TCU agree to join the Big 12 in July 2012 along with UCF from CUSA. This leaves the Big East as a non-FB circuit. Notre Dame equivocates for a while longer before deciding to join the ACC for non-FB sports in July 2013. The Big East adds Xavier and Creighton for 2012, and Butler is selected to replace ND in 2013.

Big 12 (2012-13)
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, TCU

The moves made by the power conferences cascade down into the lesser FBS leagues. The Mountain West Conference is hit particularly hard, losing their top 3 FB schools (Utah, BYU, TCU) in the span of 2 seasons as in reality. Boise State is recruited from the WAC for 2011, as are Fresno State, Nevada, and FB-only Hawaii for 2012. This is a heavy blow for an already weakened WAC, though it is actually able to linger as an FBS conference with 7 FB schools for a year longer than our timeline. Meanwhile, CUSA shakes off the loss of UCF for 2012 by stealing FIU from the Sun Belt.

The Pac-16 is an instant success in 2012, arranging itself into 4-team "WAC-16" style pods that rotate between divisions and actually work geographically. Feeling inadequate, the Big Ten and SEC desire further expansion and aggressively probe the ACC for weakness. Rumors of Clemson and FSU negotiating to defect to the SEC and the tremendous turnover in the Big 12 and Big East combine to convince Tobacco Road that the ACC is next in line to fall. As such, schools begin seriously exploring options. Though not without regret, UNC agrees to join the Big Ten for 2014 along with conference mates UVA and UMD as well as Rutgers from the Big 12. Abandoned by their top rivals, NCSU and VT quickly agree to accept invites from the SEC to join in 2014.

Though the ACC is reeling from these announcements, the rumors surrounding Clemson and FSU turn out to be just rumors. Like the Big Ten, the SEC is actually looking for new markets. So the ACC retains a solid FB core, but as they will be down to 9 members plus non-FB ND, expansion is in order to replenish their numbers. The unhappy hodgepodge that is the Big 12 is at severe risk of being left out of the CFP/NY6 negotiations. Thus the ACC is free to take their pick of the Big 12. Seeking parity with the other 3 leagues that will be at 16 schools by 2014, 5 schools are initially invited: Cincinnati, Kansas, Louisville, TCU, and West Virginia. These adds are made possible because the ACC is already losing most of the hardcore opposition to schools that are perceived as of lesser academic quality.

Notre Dame sees that the wind is quickly blowing toward a P4 champs-only CFP and wisely commits fully to the ACC for 2014. The 16th and final member added for 2014 is dark horse Houston from CUSA, narrowly selected over UConn due to better football, because the league wants a travel partner for TCU, and also due to lingering bad blood over the lawsuit spearheaded by UConn against the ACC in the previous round of realignment. Like the Big Ten and SEC, the ACC emulates the Pac-16's rotating pod setup to operate within existing NCAA rules while still permitting all FB teams to play one another at least twice within 4-6 years.

The Big 12 has only 6 members remaining for 2014 (Baylor, ISU, KSU, UCF, UConn, USF). Despite the heavy losses, the conference is optimistic about an autobid in the new NY6. The Big 12 draws more deeply from the usual pool of backfill for power conferences, CUSA. ECU, Memphis, SMU, and Tulane are excited about joining an AQ conference. Temple is also invited as a full member for 2014 and Navy as a FB-only member for 2015. Unfortunately, as the Irish divined, the CFP ends up as P4 champs only, and no NY6 bowl autobid for the Big 12 is forthcoming. There is, however, a general G5 autobid, and as a self-proclaimed "P5" conference, the Big 12 feels confident about qualifying every year.

Big 12 (2015-16)
East: Central Florida, Connecticut, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Temple
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Navy* (FB only), SMU, Tulane

The trickle-down effect of realignment has naturally hit CUSA hard. After losing the better half of the conference, they look to the Sun Belt (UNT), WAC (LT, UTSA), and recent FB startups in large markets (ODU, UNCC) to restock for 2014. The Sun Belt has quietly been expanding over the past few years, mostly by promoting FCS schools. They manage to reach 12 members by 2014 and hold their first CCG. With the demise of WAC FB after the 2013-14 season, Idaho and NMSU are left without FB homes. As there is no room in the Sun Belt here for FB affiliates, Idaho admits defeat and drops to the FCS Big Sky for 2015, while NMSU clings to FBS independence.

CUSA (2014-15)
East: Charlotte, FIU, Marshall, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

Sun Belt (2014-15)
East: Appalachian State, FAU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy
NFB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

The MAC and MWC evolve in a manner similar to that in our timeline, with the exceptions being that Temple FB sticks around in the MAC for 2 more years and SJSU/USU don't join the MWC until 2014. As in our timeline, things mostly quiet down after 2014. UConn eventually gives up on the Big 12 and joins the Big East in 2020. The Big 12 replaces them with Tulsa from CUSA, which snags FAU from the Sun Belt, which taps Coastal Carolina from the FCS Big South. Thus we arrive at the present alignment (see image at the top of the post).

For the ACC and SEC, which only have 8 conference games in FB, the pods rotate between divisions in a 3-year cycle. The teams with the same color (green vs. blue) in a column are protected crossovers, while the teams with the same font style (normal vs. italics) in a column are alternate crossovers, which are played when the team shares a division with its protected crossover. The Big Ten and Pac-16 have 9 conference games, and their pods rotate in a 2-year cycle, with East and West never sharing a division (same for North and South) and no protected crossovers..
(This post was last modified: 11-01-2020 09:39 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-01-2020 03:51 PM
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Scoochpooch1 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
I will respond more in-depth but I think Kansas would have taken A&M's slot in PAC 16 with Utah and BYU staying in the MWC. MWC would have been a nice conference with TCU, BYU, Utah, and Boise State.
11-01-2020 09:18 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
I’m also inclined to think Kansas is in the PAC 16 deal. When Larry Scott soured the deal he was trying to sub out Oklahoma St for Kansas.

Had both parties been patient and the Big 12 schools explained that TAMU was out I think they would have come to terms with Kansas as #16.

The next moves depend on the disposition of the Big Ten and SEC. If there is a knee jerk reaction and both of them feel they have to match that 16 number things could get crazy.

If there is less knee jerk and more of a methodical approach Missouri goes to the SEC with TAMU in 2011. Nebraska joins the Big Ten at the same time.

I can see the ACC also going ahead and trying to pick up Pitt and Cuse, maybe in 2011, but they could wait a year or 2 more.

The Big Ten still ends up a little slow to the party with the Maryland/Rutgers pick up, and WVU gets a life line out of the Big East to replace Maryland in the ACC.

With 9 schools wanting out of the Big 12 in 2011, Iowa St, K St, and Baylor are all in a bit of a bind. I think the Big East takes them in for 2011, and they grab TCU for 12 (CCG). Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and WVU puts them back down to 8. At that point UCF, Memphis, ECU, and Navy round our your 12. (That is of course, unless you’re able to rig up something to get Utah, BYU, Boise St, and San Diego St to come over as fb only schools—if they could keep an AQ in the BCS/Playoff they might stand a chance at doing it)

PAC 16 West: Wash, Wash St, Ore, Ore St, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA
PAC 16 East: Ariz, Ariz St, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, OK St, Texas, TTU

Big 10: same as now

SEC: same as now

ACC Atlantic: BC, Cuse, WVU, NC St, WF, Clemson, FSU
ACC Coastal: Pitt, VT, UVA, UNC, Duke, GT, Miami

AAC East: UConn, Navy, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, ECU
AAC West: Louisville, Memphis, Iowa St, K St, TCU, Baylor

MWC Mountain: UNM, Colorado St, AFA, Wyoming, BYU, Utah
MWC West: Boise St, UNLV, Nevada, San Diego St, Fresno St, Hawaii

C-USA East: Marshall, UAB, USM, Charlotte, ODU, FIU
C-USA West: Tulane, Tulsa, Houston, SMU, Rice, UTEP

SBC: FAU, GA St, WKU, MTSU, Troy, USA, ULL, ULM, Ark St, UNT

WAC: Idaho, San Jose St, Utah St, NMSU, UTSA, Texas St, LA Tech
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2020 10:26 AM by Fighting Muskie.)
11-01-2020 10:40 PM
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Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
Texas is the BEST RECRUTING AREA of the Country ...Texas schools do NOT want to be involved in anything controlled by the LeftCoast


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2020 09:58 AM by michael.stevens.3110.)
11-03-2020 09:57 AM
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DFW HOYA Offline
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
North Carolina, Virginia, and Georgia Tech were all in discussion by the Big Ten around this time, so this list is as good as any others out there.

Swap UConn for Navy, however.
11-03-2020 10:03 AM
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bullet Offline
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
If it happened, Kansas would be #16. SEC would take Missouri with Texas A&M. Big East would have taken ISU, KSU, Baylor and TCU. MWC adds Fresno and Boise.

That would have been the first round. Big 10 and ACC likely raid the supersized Big East after that.
11-03-2020 10:21 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
Wasn't the deal with Kansas that Scott was trying to replace OSU? Was that when A&M was still supposedly on the table? Or was it the second round of negotiations, after Utah had already been chosen? Because if A&M and Utah were not in the picture, Kansas could have been added as #16 without having to swap any school out.

Also, Hoya -- swap UConn for Navy where?
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2020 01:42 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-03-2020 12:52 PM
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ICThawk Offline
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 12:52 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Wasn't the deal with Kansas that Scott was trying to replace OSU? Was that when A&M was still supposedly on the table? Or was it the second round of negotiations, after Utah had already been chosen? Because if A&M and Utah were not in the picture, Kansas could have been added as #16 without having to swap any school out.

Also, Hoya -- swap UConn for Navy where?

As I understood it (and I certainly could be wrong), A&M had made it clear that they were NOT going to the Pac and therefore Kansas would have been a substitute for A&M, not OSU.
11-03-2020 01:44 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
The PAC is in expansion trouble and I don’t see a way out that would please their leadership.
11-03-2020 01:54 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
I think the Big 12 doesn't just eat the AAC whole because I don't see them interested in ECU, SMU and the TU Trio compared to Colorado State, BYU and San Diego State in all sports, and Boise State and Air Force as football affiliates. I don't have the patience to remap the path to get here, but I think it ends with a Big 14 as a last-gasp effort to present themselves as a P-level conference, even if they don't have P-level access.

Big 14 East: Connecticut, Kansas State, Iowa State, UCF, USF, Memphis, Navy (FB), Dayton or VCU (non-FB)
Big 14 West: Baylor, BYU, Colorado State, San Diego State, SMU, Tulane, Air Force (FB), Wichita State (non-FB)

It's inelegant but best I can do on a napkin. Air Force and Tulane beat out Boise State and Temple for the last spots due to a combination of academics and politics. Navy-AF would either be a protected crossover or an OOC game in years they don't play. No divisions in hoops. If UConn peaces out here as they do IRL, Boise State football and whoever didn't get in between Dayton and VCU are the next up.

Mountain West East: New Mexico, North Texas, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, Tulsa
Mountain West Less East: Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Utah State, San Jose State, Wyoming

Ideally, San Jose State gets the hint and drops to FCS, but they're not walking away and the MWC won't force them out, so in this case, we'll say that Boise State, burned by the Big 14 rejection, decides to leave what they consider a compromised MWC, joining Hawaii as football independents/Big West members.

CUSA East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, FAU, ODU, Temple
CUSA West: Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, UAB, WKU

ECU and Temple aren't happy about not being invited to the Big 14, but this is the best they can do (unless ECU kicks the tires on football independence or Temple goes back to the A10).
11-03-2020 02:23 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 02:23 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  I think the Big 12 doesn't just eat the AAC whole because I don't see them interested in ECU, SMU and the TU Trio compared to Colorado State, BYU and San Diego State in all sports, and Boise State and Air Force as football affiliates. I don't have the patience to remap the path to get here, but I think it ends with a Big 14 as a last-gasp effort to present themselves as a P-level conference, even if they don't have P-level access.

Big 14 East: Connecticut, Kansas State, Iowa State, UCF, USF, Memphis, Navy (FB), Dayton or VCU (non-FB)
Big 14 West: Baylor, BYU, Colorado State, San Diego State, SMU, Tulane, Air Force (FB), Wichita State (non-FB)

It's inelegant but best I can do on a napkin. Air Force and Tulane beat out Boise State and Temple for the last spots due to a combination of academics and politics. Navy-AF would either be a protected crossover or an OOC game in years they don't play. No divisions in hoops. If UConn peaces out here as they do IRL, Boise State football and whoever didn't get in between Dayton and VCU are the next up.

Mountain West East: New Mexico, North Texas, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, Tulsa
Mountain West Less East: Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Utah State, San Jose State, Wyoming

Ideally, San Jose State gets the hint and drops to FCS, but they're not walking away and the MWC won't force them out, so in this case, we'll say that Boise State, burned by the Big 14 rejection, decides to leave what they consider a compromised MWC, joining Hawaii as football independents/Big West members.

CUSA East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, FAU, ODU, Temple
CUSA West: Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, UAB, WKU

ECU and Temple aren't happy about not being invited to the Big 14, but this is the best they can do (unless ECU kicks the tires on football independence or Temple goes back to the A10).

A non-power all-sports league that extends from UConn to San Diego State will fall apart as soon as they find out they're not getting an autobid to the CFP/NY6. Also, I don't know if Temple would leave the A-10 for CUSA. They might just be a FB affiliate, although sticking with the MAC would be a bit better for travel.
11-03-2020 02:32 PM
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clpp01 Offline
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 01:44 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 12:52 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Wasn't the deal with Kansas that Scott was trying to replace OSU? Was that when A&M was still supposedly on the table? Or was it the second round of negotiations, after Utah had already been chosen? Because if A&M and Utah were not in the picture, Kansas could have been added as #16 without having to swap any school out.

Also, Hoya -- swap UConn for Navy where?

As I understood it (and I certainly could be wrong), A&M had made it clear that they were NOT going to the Pac and therefore Kansas would have been a substitute for A&M, not OSU.

Yes, Kansas was brought into the conversation as a replacement for Texas A&M, Oklahoma State's invitation was always secure until Texas pulled out.
11-03-2020 02:42 PM
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
The plan supposedly was going to be 4 different 4 team pods, where you play the 3 teams in your pod and 2 teams from each of the other 3 pods every year, for a 9 game conference schedule. This would guarantee you'd play every team in the conference every 2 years.

The championship game would have been between the 2 teams with the best record in the whole conference. Tiebreakers would get pretty complicated if teams had the same conference record and didn't play each other. I have no idea how that would work.

https://www.pacifictakes.com/2011/9/19/2...6-schedule
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2020 02:48 PM by Poster.)
11-03-2020 02:44 PM
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
OK, a modification of the present-day alignment in the OP based on Kansas being selected as the final team for the Pac-16 over Utah:

[Image: zvWYWVg.png]

Since Utah doesn't leave the MWC, neither does BYU. When WAC FB collapses, USU gets picked up by the Sun Belt as a FB affiliate along with NMSU, leaving Idaho and SJSU in the lurch. Idaho would end up dropping to the FCS Big Sky, while SJSU drops FB altogether and joins the Big West. One additional bonus of retaining BYU and Utah is that Gonzaga joins the MWC in this timeline.

Note that UConn gets its wish to join the ACC, but as a non-FB member only. Their non-FB sports are meant to balance out FB affiliate Navy, which was added to appease ND.

~~~~~~

Bonus! Present-day non-FB conference alignments:

Big West (11): CSU (Cal Poly, Fullerton, Long Beach State, Northridge, San Jose State), UC (Davis, Irvine, Riverside, San Diego, Santa Barbara), Hawaii

WAC (10): Cal Baptist, Chicago State, CSU Bakersfield, Dixie State, Grand Canyon, New Mexico State, Tarleton State, Utah State, Utah Valley, UTRGV

WCC (9): Loyola Marymount, Pacific, Pepperdine, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Seattle, St. Mary's
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2020 10:38 AM by Nerdlinger.)
11-03-2020 04:07 PM
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-01-2020 03:51 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  In college sports realignment circles, there has of course been much discussion about how ground-shaking it would have been for the Texoma 4 to leave the Big 12 for the "Pac-16", but not much about the nuts and bolts of what might have occurred after. Here's my attempt. I don't claim it to be authoritative, so feel free to come up with your own timeline of events.

The TL;DR version:

FBS (2020)

[Image: 8cOUuzC.png]

The full version:

In June of 2010, after Colorado declares it will split for the Pac and Nebraska for the Big Ten, the Texoma 4 (OU, OSU, TT, UT) do indeed decide to join the Pac to make a Pac-16. Texas A&M was supposed to be along for the ride, but they would have none of that, leading to the Pac's selection of Utah to replace them. This occurs in spite of Baylor making an arse of themselves in attempting to either block the move or supplant another school to come with. The negotiations between the Texoma 4 and the Pac drag on into July, so while Colorado and Nebraska will depart the Big 12 in July 2011, the Texoma 4's move is delayed until July 2012. Incidentally, this also gives A&M time to make arrangements with the SEC, and Missouri is chosen as the SEC's 14th school as in our timeline.

With the Big 12 down to 10 schools by the 2011-12 season, and with 6 schools to depart the following season, the remaining 4 (Baylor, ISU, KU, KSU) scramble to retain their relevance. This precipitates an earlier separation between the Big East football-first and basketball-first schools. The ACC moves up their invite of Pitt and Syracuse to join in July 2012, and the remaining 6 Big East FB schools plus incoming TCU agree to join the Big 12 in July 2012 along with UCF from CUSA. This leaves the Big East as a non-FB circuit. Notre Dame equivocates for a while longer before deciding to join the ACC for non-FB sports in July 2013. The Big East adds Xavier and Creighton for 2012, and Butler is selected to replace ND in 2013.

Big 12 (2012-13)
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, TCU

The moves made by the power conferences cascade down into the lesser FBS leagues. The Mountain West Conference is hit particularly hard, losing their top 3 FB schools (Utah, BYU, TCU) in the span of 2 seasons as in reality. Boise State is recruited from the WAC for 2011, as are Fresno State, Nevada, and FB-only Hawaii for 2012. This is a heavy blow for an already weakened WAC, though it is actually able to linger as an FBS conference with 7 FB schools for a year longer than our timeline. Meanwhile, CUSA shakes off the loss of UCF for 2012 by stealing FIU from the Sun Belt.

The Pac-16 is an instant success in 2012, arranging itself into 4-team "WAC-16" style pods that rotate between divisions and actually work geographically. Feeling inadequate, the Big Ten and SEC desire further expansion and aggressively probe the ACC for weakness. Rumors of Clemson and FSU negotiating to defect to the SEC and the tremendous turnover in the Big 12 and Big East combine to convince Tobacco Road that the ACC is next in line to fall. As such, schools begin seriously exploring options. Though not without regret, UNC agrees to join the Big Ten for 2014 along with conference mates UVA and UMD as well as Rutgers from the Big 12. Abandoned by their top rivals, NCSU and VT quickly agree to accept invites from the SEC to join in 2014.

Though the ACC is reeling from these announcements, the rumors surrounding Clemson and FSU turn out to be just rumors. Like the Big Ten, the SEC is actually looking for new markets. So the ACC retains a solid FB core, but as they will be down to 9 members plus non-FB ND, expansion is in order to replenish their numbers. The unhappy hodgepodge that is the Big 12 is at severe risk of being left out of the CFP/NY6 negotiations. Thus the ACC is free to take their pick of the Big 12. Seeking parity with the other 3 leagues that will be at 16 schools by 2014, 5 schools are initially invited: Cincinnati, Kansas, Louisville, TCU, and West Virginia. These adds are made possible because the ACC is already losing most of the hardcore opposition to schools that are perceived as of lesser academic quality.

Notre Dame sees that the wind is quickly blowing toward a P4 champs-only CFP and wisely commits fully to the ACC for 2014. The 16th and final member added for 2014 is dark horse Houston from CUSA, narrowly selected over UConn due to better football, because the league wants a travel partner for TCU, and also due to lingering bad blood over the lawsuit spearheaded by UConn against the ACC in the previous round of realignment. Like the Big Ten and SEC, the ACC emulates the Pac-16's rotating pod setup to operate within existing NCAA rules while still permitting all FB teams to play one another at least twice within 4-6 years.

The Big 12 has only 6 members remaining for 2014 (Baylor, ISU, KSU, UCF, UConn, USF). Despite the heavy losses, the conference is optimistic about an autobid in the new NY6. The Big 12 draws more deeply from the usual pool of backfill for power conferences, CUSA. ECU, Memphis, SMU, and Tulane are excited about joining an AQ conference. Temple is also invited as a full member for 2014 and Navy as a FB-only member for 2015. Unfortunately, as the Irish divined, the CFP ends up as P4 champs only, and no NY6 bowl autobid for the Big 12 is forthcoming. There is, however, a general G5 autobid, and as a self-proclaimed "P5" conference, the Big 12 feels confident about qualifying every year.

Big 12 (2015-16)
East: Central Florida, Connecticut, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Temple
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Navy* (FB only), SMU, Tulane

The trickle-down effect of realignment has naturally hit CUSA hard. After losing the better half of the conference, they look to the Sun Belt (UNT), WAC (LT, UTSA), and recent FB startups in large markets (ODU, UNCC) to restock for 2014. The Sun Belt has quietly been expanding over the past few years, mostly by promoting FCS schools. They manage to reach 12 members by 2014 and hold their first CCG. With the demise of WAC FB after the 2013-14 season, Idaho and NMSU are left without FB homes. As there is no room in the Sun Belt here for FB affiliates, Idaho admits defeat and drops to the FCS Big Sky for 2015, while NMSU clings to FBS independence.

CUSA (2014-15)
East: Charlotte, FIU, Marshall, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

Sun Belt (2014-15)
East: Appalachian State, FAU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy
NFB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

The MAC and MWC evolve in a manner similar to that in our timeline, with the exceptions being that Temple FB sticks around in the MAC for 2 more years and SJSU/USU don't join the MWC until 2014. As in our timeline, things mostly quiet down after 2014. UConn eventually gives up on the Big 12 and joins the Big East in 2020. The Big 12 replaces them with Tulsa from CUSA, which snags FAU from the Sun Belt, which taps Coastal Carolina from the FCS Big South. Thus we arrive at the present alignment (see image at the top of the post).

For the ACC and SEC, which only have 8 conference games in FB, the pods rotate between divisions in a 3-year cycle. The teams with the same color (green vs. blue) in a column are protected crossovers, while the teams with the same font style (normal vs. italics) in a column are alternate crossovers, which are played when the team shares a division with its protected crossover. The Big Ten and Pac-16 have 9 conference games, and their pods rotate in a 2-year cycle, with East and West never sharing a division (same for North and South) and no protected crossovers..


Very well done, nerdlinger. I actually read the bulk and enjoyed. Logical.
11-03-2020 04:15 PM
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 04:07 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  OK, a modification of the present-day alignment in the OP based on Kansas being selected as the final team for the Pac-16 over Utah:

[Image: YGK1K1C.png]

Since Utah doesn't leave the MWC, neither does BYU. This means SJSU and USU are SOL when WAC FB collapses.

I don’t see the Big East football schools leaving the Big East to join ISU, K St, Baylor, and presumably TCU in that shell.

The Big East has the numbers and stability—those 4 were going to be moving to the Big East and it was widely rumored that the Big East was in contact with those Big 12 schools about membership.

Plus you have to think that with 9 schools (75%) wanting out they’d simply disband the conference.

I still expect the Pitt/Cuse ACC move happening a year later and then Maryland/Rutgers the year after. I still see the loss of Pitt/Cuse/Rutgers/WVU/ND triggering a Catholic 7 departure and the existence of an AAC (maybe they assume the now defunct Big 12 name) but unless things were sped up and the subsequent ACC and Big 10 moves occurred within days or weeks of the PAC 16, Big 10 round 1, and SEC moves I think Baylor, TCU, ISU, and K St all end up in the AAC by way of the old Big East.

The only way I see the Big 12 she’ll surviving is if ND and the Catholic 7 gave the BE football 8 their blessing to move over starting the 2011 season AND making that move made the Big East football schools more money than staying put.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2020 05:19 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
11-03-2020 05:08 PM
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 05:08 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t see the Big East football schools leaving the Big East to join ISU, K St, Baylor, and presumably TCU in that shell.

The Big East has the numbers and stability—those 4 were going to be moving to the Big East and it was widely rumored that the Big East was in contact with those Big 12 schools about membership.

Plus you have to think that with 9 schools (75%) wanting out they’d simply disband the conference.

I still expect the Pitt/Cuse ACC move happening a year later and then Maryland/Rutgers the year after. I still see the loss of Pitt/Cuse/Rutgers/WVU/ND triggering a Catholic 7 departure and the existence of an AAC (maybe they assume the now defunct Big 12 name) but unless things were sped up and the subsequent ACC and Big 10 moves occurred within days or weeks of the PAC 16, Big 10 round 1, and SEC moves I think Baylor, TCU, ISU, and K St all end up in the AAC by way of the old Big East.

Except if Colorado and Nebraska bug out early, you only have 7/10 schools with another plan. Also, since the schools going to the Pac and those to the SEC are not working together, they're going to announce separately and invalidate their conference votes.

The Big East has stability? The Big East that would lose half its membership over the next couple years? I see the FB-first schools going to the Big 12 as a logical solution to the conflict with the BB-first schools and to the lack of members in the Big 12.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2020 05:35 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-03-2020 05:21 PM
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
8 fb schools and a BCS tie in > 3 football schools and a BCS tie in
11-03-2020 06:28 PM
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 06:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  8 fb schools and a BCS tie in > 3 football schools and a BCS tie in

I wonder if the Big East schools would keep their BCS tie-in, so that the Big 12 would actually have 2. It's not like the non-FB Big East schools need it. In any case, that situation would have only existed for a couple years before the CFP/NY6.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2020 06:42 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-03-2020 06:40 PM
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RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 06:40 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 06:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  8 fb schools and a BCS tie in > 3 football schools and a BCS tie in

I wonder if the Big East schools would keep their BCS tie-in, so that the Big 12 would actually have 2. It's not like the non-FB Big East schools need it. In any case, that situation would have only existed for a couple years before the CFP/NY6.

I think they hang on to 1 BCS tie in for the duration of the BCS but after that, it’s tough to say.

I could see the PAC 16 (16), Big 10 (14), SEC (14), and ACC (14) pushing for a post season format that only involved their 4 champions either as a de facto or de Jure system. (The de facto model would be to implement a Plus One model. The BCS would go away and the Rose Bowl would simply host the PAC 16/Big 10 while the ACC/SEC squared off in the Sugar. The Orange and Fiesta could then be free to have tie ins with who ever... oh and what’s this... the Fiesta has the PAC 16 #2 vs ACC #2 and the Orange Bowl has the SEC #2 vs Big Ten #2!

the hiccup is ND—they’d need to be worked in some how.

I think the Big East attempts play as one big 20 member family until the schools that form the bridge between 2005-2012 new fb additions and the old guard basketball schools start getting picked off—Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, WVU, ND. Lose those and things get rocky.

One thing that could keep them together is if, with the loss of Pitt/Cuse they added Utah and BYU and functioned as unique scheduling pods for basketball etc:

West: Utah, BYU, K St, Iowa St, TCU, Baylor
Central: DePaul, Marquette, ND, Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU, USF
East: UConn, Providence, Seton Hall, St John’s, Rutgers, Villanova, Georgetown
11-03-2020 09:28 PM
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