(11-19-2020 05:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-19-2020 04:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There’s a very good chance that if there’s a 16 member and a 14 member Power Conference in 2011 that the Big Ten and ACC feel pressure to go past 12 and that the SEC doesn’t stop at 14 and that it all goes down fast.

There might not be a Big East left for the 2011 season:

The ACC and Big Ten could be pulling away members like Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and even UConn, WVU, and Louisville too. Maybe the ACC moves quick enough and grabs 4 Big East schools. Maybe the even move quick enough to get a GOR in place before the Big 10 swipes Maryland and the SEC swipes Clemson and Florida St.

The SEC potentially grabs Florida St and Clemson to go to 16 and dropping the ACC to 14.

In the end there might be a race to see where the Big East and Big 12 remnants land—under who’s umbrella.

I thought your argument was that the Big East was rock-solid right up until everything fell apart.

My argument regarding the Big East being the landing spots for the 3 lost Big 12 schools and TCU was IF the PAC 16 stopped at 16, the SEC at 14, and the Big Ten at 12 during the summer of 2010.

If expansion doesn’t remain contained and the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten all felt pressured to grow larger since the PAC had, and all this occurs before the 2011 season, is where I think it gets chaotic.

If conferences race past 12 to 16 right away it gets a little harder to predict. The ACC and Big 10 are both going to be making phone calls all over the northeast—it’s difficult to say who moves first.

Let’s say the ACC moves first:

They add Pitt, Cuse, WVU, and Louisville—a combination meant to balance the desire for eastern markets (first 2), football first mentality (last 2), and basketball prowess (all 4). Tobacco Road and the Football First crowd are all satisfied.

Now it might stop there but if Maryland, Clemson, and Florida St all get taken then USF, UConn, and Cincinnati fill out the 16 team league.

But if Cincinnati, UConn, Rutgers, USF, Iowa St, Kansas St, and Baylor all were abandoned in rapid succession I think it’s a real toss up. Adding too much to the Big East probably creates a fb/bb schism. I reorg in the Big 12, where Rutgers and UConn are just fb affiliates might be the best route:

Big 12 West: Utah, BYU, Iowa St, Kansas St, Baylor, TCU
Big 12 East: Cincinnati, Memphis, USF, UCF, UConn*, Rutgers*

*fb only

Reassessment: It's likely that if the Pac-16 had happened, it would have been for the 2011 season. This means A&M and Missouri join the SEC a year early. The 3 remaining Big 12 schools could have fled to the Big East, but without Kansas, I feel that the BE would have had little incentive to make such a move. So the Big 12 attempts to rebuild.

Assuming there are no takers from the Big East, then CUSA and the MWC are the obvious targets. The Big 12 invites TCU before the BE can, along with UCF, Houston, Memphis, Utah, BYU, Boise, SDSU, and, for football only, AFA and Navy (Navy can't commit until 2013). Despite the obscene travel distances (Orlando to San Diego), no one turns down the invite. The depleted MWC quickly reloads, finishing off WAC FB 2 years earlier than in our timeline.

Big 12 (2011)
East: Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis
West: Air Force*, Boise State, BYU, San Diego State, TCU, Utah

CUSA (2011)
East: East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

MWC (2011)
FB: Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
NFB: Air Force

Sun Belt (2011)
FB: Arkansas State, FAU, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, North Texas, Troy, Western Kentucky
NFB: Denver, Little Rock, South Alabama

The ACC invites Pitt and Syracuse for 2013, followed later by non-FB Notre Dame. The Big East has been beaten to the punch for Houston and TCU, but Navy FB, UCF, and Memphis accept BE invites for 2013, as do Rice, SMU, and Temple. The C7 still break off with the BE name, leaving behind the newly renamed AAC. The Big 12 restocks with Colorado State and Tulsa.

AAC (2013)
East: Central Florida, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, Temple, West Virginia
West: Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Navy*, Rice, SMU

Big 12 (2013)
East: Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Tulsa
West: Air Force*, Boise State, BYU, Colorado State, San Diego State, Utah

CUSA (2013)
East: East Carolina, FAU, FIU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Southern Miss, Tulane, UTEP, UTSA
NFB: Charlotte, Old Dominion

MWC (2013)
FB: Fresno State, Hawaii*, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
NFB: Air Force

Sun Belt (2013)
FB: Arkansas State, Georgia State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, Western Kentucky
NFB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

Next it's the Big Ten's turn, and they add Rutgers and Maryland for 2014 as in our timeline. The ACC chooses Louisville as a replacement over West Virginia and UConn. The AAC adds ECU and Tulane.

AAC (2014)
East: Central Florida, Connecticut, East Carolina, South Florida, Temple, West Virginia
West: Cincinnati, Memphis, Navy*, Rice, SMU, Tulane

CUSA (2014)
East: FAU, FIU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, UAB, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Southern Miss, UTEP, UTSA
NFB: Charlotte

Sun Belt (2014)
FB: Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy
NFB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

Unfortunately for the AAC and Big 12, neither receives a bowl tie-in for the NY6, though the CFP doesn't strictly move to P4 champs only. The MWC and Sun Belt, each with 9 FB teams, get clever and manage to have a joint CCG without even playing each other in the regular season. The ACC, Big Ten, MAC, and SEC end up the same as in our timeline. Wichita State joins the AAC in 2017. UConn leaves the AAC for the Big East, UAB replaces them, and CUSA calls up Jacksonville State from the FCS.

Interesting take. I think the Big East would have taken in the Big 12 leftovers because there were actual conversations about it going on the summer of 2010 but if they didn’t I think Utah, BYU, and TCU are all no brainers. That’s 6. They could take Boise St and Houston and just call it a day.

I don’t know that UCF, Memphis, AFA, and San Diego St are necessary yet.

If/when the Big East gets hit hard a year or two later with Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and L’ville/WVU departing then I think we start talking about the surviving BE FB schools jumping over.

(11-19-2020 11:43 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Interesting take. I think the Big East would have taken in the Big 12 leftovers because there were actual conversations about it going on the summer of 2010 but if they didn’t I think Utah, BYU, and TCU are all no brainers. That’s 6. They could take Boise St and Houston and just call it a day.

I don’t know that UCF, Memphis, AFA, and San Diego St are necessary yet.

If/when the Big East gets hit hard a year or two later with Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and L’ville/WVU departing then I think we start talking about the surviving BE FB schools jumping over.

Both the Big East and Big 12 would want to retain their AQ status, though, so that's another reason I think the Big 12 remnant would seek to rebuild rather than throw in the towel.

Also, I had the Big 12 expanding quickly back to 12 to retain their CCG, but I suppose they could have been more conservative and aimed for just 8. However, I don't know if that would have been because they were saving room for potential BE defectors.

Re-reassessment: Pac-16 in 2011. A&M and Missouri to the SEC a year early. The 3 remaining Big 12 schools rebuild, adding Boise, BYU, Houston, TCU, and Utah and stopping at the bare minimum of 8. They consider appropriating the old "Big 8" name but stick with "Big 12" in case of future expansion.

Big 12 (2011)
Baylor, Boise State, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Utah

CUSA (2011)
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Memphis, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

MWC (2011)
Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Wyoming

Sun Belt (2011)
FB: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Troy, Western Kentucky
NFB: Denver, Little Rock, South Alabama

Pitt, Syracuse, and non-FB ND from the Big East to the ACC in 2013. As the C7 prepares to split off, the Big 12 picks up Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia from the BE and Memphis from CUSA. The Big Ten moves up their invite of Rutgers and Maryland by a year. The ACC has little choice but to replace UMD with UConn. As the last remaining FB school in the BE, USF exits gracefully to CUSA before the C7 can formally vote to drop FB.

Big 12 (2013)
East: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, Memphis, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Boise State, BYU, Houston, TCU, Utah

CUSA (2013)
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, South Florida, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

MWC (2013)
Mountain: Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, UTSA, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV

Sun Belt (2013)
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, South Alabama, Texas State
NFB: Little Rock

The Big Ten and SEC end up the same as in our timeline, the ACC's the same except it has UConn instead of Louisville, and the MAC still has Temple and UMass as FB-only affiliates. The rebuilt Big 12 is of course not treated as a power conference but is a solid tweener.

(11-21-2020 03:40 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Re-reassessment: Pac-16 in 2011. A&M and Missouri to the SEC a year early. The 3 remaining Big 12 schools rebuild, adding Boise, BYU, Houston, TCU, and Utah and stopping at the bare minimum of 8. They consider appropriating the old "Big 8" name but stick with "Big 12" in case of future expansion.

Big 12 (2011)
Baylor, Boise State, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Utah

CUSA (2011)
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Memphis, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

MWC (2011)
Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Wyoming

Sun Belt (2011)
FB: Arkansas State, FAU, FIU, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Troy, Western Kentucky
NFB: Denver, Little Rock, South Alabama

Pitt, Syracuse, and non-FB ND from the Big East to the ACC in 2013. As the C7 prepares to split off, the Big 12 picks up Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia from the BE and Memphis from CUSA. The Big Ten moves up their invite of Rutgers and Maryland by a year. The ACC has little choice but to replace UMD with UConn. As the last remaining FB school in the BE, USF exits gracefully to CUSA before the C7 can formally vote to drop FB.

Big 12 (2013)
East: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, Memphis, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Boise State, BYU, Houston, TCU, Utah

CUSA (2013)
East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, South Florida, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

MWC (2013)
Mountain: Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State, UTSA, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV

Sun Belt (2013)
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, South Alabama, Texas State
NFB: Little Rock

The Big Ten and SEC end up the same as in our timeline, the ACC's the same except it has UConn instead of Louisville, and the MAC still has Temple and UMass as FB-only affiliates. The rebuilt Big 12 is of course not treated as a power conference but is a solid tweener.

Looking at the 2013 conferences:

XII: I’d love to be in this conference. Having nearby BYU and Utah would be great. I’m not sure how viable it is, but it’s a fun league for sure.

CUSA: I don’t dislike the Louisiana Tech addition but I would venture that Navy may try to join as a football-only, similar to their current position in the American.

I like it—but I don’t see Memphis jumping USF in line.

USF goes to the Big 12 (who interestingly enough actually has 12 members)

Big 12 East: USF, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Iowa St, Kansas St
Big 12 West: TCU, Baylor, Houston, Utah, BYU, Boise St

The Big question is does this conglomerate gain autobid status in the CFP? My guess is that the Sugar Bowl makes a push to be SEC vs ACC.

C-USA East: Marshall, ECU, UCF, UAB, USM, Memphis
C-USA: West: Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Rice, UTSA, UTEP
(By heart says LA Tech to replace Houston but my head says they go for the big Texas market of San Antonio)

MWC: NMSU in place of Boise St

MAC: has Temple and UMass as fb affiliates

SBC East: FAU, FIU, Troy, USA, MTSU, WKU
SBC West: Ark St, ULM, ULL, LA Tech, UNT, Texas St
(LA Tech has to take a huge helping of humble pie and accept that the WAC is dead)

Indy: Navy, Army
FCS: Idaho

Curious question—does the WAC get disassembled fast enough that it can’t even attempt to rebuild? Any chance they can admit some of the FCS schools wanting to come up?—JMU, Liberty, ODU, Charlotte, App St, CCU, GA St, GA South That’s a nice 8 team league—maybe toss in Jacksonville St too.

(11-21-2020 04:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I like it—but I don’t see Memphis jumping USF in line.

USF goes to the Big 12 (who interestingly enough actually has 12 members)

Big 12 East: USF, WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, Iowa St, Kansas St
Big 12 West: TCU, Baylor, Houston, Utah, BYU, Boise St

The Big question is does this conglomerate gain autobid status in the CFP? My guess is that the Sugar Bowl makes a push to be SEC vs ACC.

C-USA East: Marshall, ECU, UCF, UAB, USM, Memphis
C-USA: West: Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Rice, UTSA, UTEP
(By heart says LA Tech to replace Houston but my head says they go for the big Texas market of San Antonio)

MWC: same as now—12 was necessary for a CCG at the time

MAC: has Temple and UMass as fb affiliates

SBC East: FAU, FIU, Troy, USA, MTSU, WKU
SBC West: Ark St, ULM, ULL, LA Tech, UNT, Texas St
(LA Tech has to take a huge helping of humble pie and accept that the WAC is dead)

Indy: Navy, Army, NMSU
FCS: Idaho

Curious question—does the WAC get disassembled fast enough that it can’t even attempt to rebuild? Any chance they can admit some of the FCS schools wanting to come up?—JMU, Liberty, ODU, Charlotte, App St, CCU, GA St, GA South That’s a nice 8 team league—maybe toss in Jacksonville St too.

If Boise is in the Big 12, the MWC can't be the same as now. I had CUSA pick up LA Tech because they were available in 2011 and UTSA was not. I think LA Tech goes FB independent if they can't get into CUSA. The WAC is not going to rebuild from east coast schools. You can't promote a whole conference's worth of FCS schools to FBS, as they wouldn't be able to meet the scheduling requirements playing each other.

Oops—I guess NMSU gets a reprieve and gets into the MWC.

UTSA was plenty available for the 2011 season—they just spend the season in C-USA not the WAC.

LA Tech is a proud school but independence would have been suicide. SBC membership would be preferable to being set adrift.

(11-21-2020 04:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Oops—I guess NMSU gets a reprieve and gets into the MWC.

UTSA was plenty available for the 2011 season—they just spend the season in C-USA not the WAC.

LA Tech is a proud school but independence would have been suicide. SBC membership would be preferable to being set adrift.

UTSA didn't join FBS until 2012. Their first season playing FB was 2011, which they spent as an FCS independent.

Alternately, the 3 remaining Big 12 schools left in 2011 seek refuge in the Big East, no doubt displeasing the C7. TCU is invited a year earlier than in our timeline to make 12 FB schools. The BE exists as a 20-member circuit for 2 uneasy seasons, but does manage to get a couple CCGs out of it. Boise State replaces TCU in the MWC.

Big East (2011)
East: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, TCU
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

MWC (2011)
Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah, Wyoming

WAC (2011)
Fresno State, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State

The MWC picks off Fresno State, Hawaii FB (NFB to BW), and Nevada from the WAC in 2012. The WAC can only replace them with Texas State and UTSA, leaving them non-compliant with FBS at 7 schools for 2012.

As in our timeline, Pitt/Syracuse/non-FB ND to the ACC in 2013. The C7 splits off with the Big East name, and the remaining schools adopt the abandoned Big 12 name. The new Big 12 adds Houston and UCF to stay true to their name. CUSA in turn picks up FIU and UTSA, while the Sun Belt adds Georgia State and Texas State. The WAC has only 5 FB members for 2013 and no further expansion prospects, but they limp along for the second and final permitted straight season of non-compliance before the conference drops FB.

Big 12 (2013)
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, TCU

CUSA (2013)
East: East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Memphis, Southern Miss, UAB
West: Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA
NFB: Charlotte, Old Dominion

MWC (2013)
Mountain: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
West: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, UNLV, San Diego State

Sun Belt (2013)
FB: Arkansas State, FAU, Georgia State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy, Western Kentucky
NFB: Little Rock

WAC (2013)
FB: Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State
NFB: CSU Bakersfield, Grand Canyon, Seattle, Texas-Arlington, Utah Valley

Also as in our timeline, Maryland and Rutgers go to the Big Ten and Louisville to the ACC in 2014. The Big 12 adds Memphis for 2014 and Navy FB for 2015. CUSA adds Louisiana Tech to replace Memphis, while the Sun Belt brings on NMSU as a FB affiliate to balance out non-FB UALR and reach 12 FB members.

Big 12 (2015)
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Navy*, TCU

CUSA (2015)
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Old Dominion, Southern Miss
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA
NFB: UAB (readds FB for 2017)

Sun Belt (2015)
East: FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State*, North Texas, Texas State
NFB: Little Rock

When UConn leaves the Big 12 in 2020 for the Big East, Temple (MAC FB, A-10 NFB) is added by the Big 12, leading to the other MAC FB affiliate, UMass, going FBS independent. In the meantime, Idaho has dropped down to the FCS Big Sky, while SJSU drops FB and joins the Big West along with UC San Diego. Utah State sticks it out as an FBS independent, anchoring their schedule on annual games with BYU and Utah. The MWC lands Gonzaga as a non-FB member. The ACC, Big Ten, and SEC are the same as in our timeline.