Bump! In light of the impending move of OU/UT to the SEC, I thought I'd do another reassessment of successful Pac-16 scenarios. Or rather, "successful", but only to a point. That is, the Texoma 4 end up in the Pac-16, but about a decade later, OU/UT become disillusioned and depart for greener grass in the SEC.
In the scenario in which the first attempt at the Pac-16 succeeds, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech move to the Pac for the 2011 season; Missouri and Texas A&M move to the SEC a year early, in 2011; Nebraska joins the Big Ten in 2011, as in our timeline; and Baylor, ISU, and KSU join the Big East along with TCU, which leaves the MWC a year early.
In the scenario in which the first Pac-16 attempt fails but the second one succeeds, Nebraska joins the Big Ten in 2011 as in our timeline. Colorado and Utah move to the Pac the same year, while Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech join them a year later. Missouri and Texas A&M join the SEC in 2012 as in our timeline. Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State join the Big East in 2012 along with TCU, while Baylor is the odd man out and is forced to shack up with CUSA.
After all this, in both scenarios and as in our timeline, the C7 break away with the Big East name in 2013, the ACC adds Pittsburgh and Syracuse in 2013 along with (non-FB) Notre Dame, the Big Ten adds Maryland and Rutgers in 2014, and Louisville replaces Maryland in the ACC. In both scenarios, 3 of the P4 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, and SEC) end up the same as in our timeline, while there's a slight difference in the Pac-16 lineup. There are differences in the AAC (which in this alternate timeline adopted the abandoned Big 12 name after the C7 split) and some of the other conferences as well.
Note: Differences between the timelines are shown in
blue for the first Pac-16 attempt succeeding and
red for the second Pac-16 attempt succeeding.
Pac-16 (2015)
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado,
Kansas/
Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC
Big 12 (2015)
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Temple, West Virginia
West: Baylor/
Kansas, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Navy (FB only), TCU
CUSA (2015)
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FIU, Marshall, Memphis, Old Dominion, Southern Miss
West: Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP,
UTSA/
Baylor
NFB: UAB
MWC (2015)
Mountain: Air Force,
BYU/
Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico,
Utah/
Utah State, Wyoming
West: Boise State/
San Jose State, Fresno State, Hawaii (FB only), Nevada, San Diego State, UNLV
Sun Belt (2015)
East: FAU, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe,
New Mexico State (FB only)/
UTSA, North Texas, Texas State
NFB: Little Rock
FBS Ind (2015)
Army, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Notre Dame,
San Jose State/
BYU,
Utah State/
New Mexico State
Then in the early 2020s, the original 10ish-year Pac-16 GOR is approaching its expiration, and Oklahoma and Texas have become tired of schlepping to the West Coast. They seek out a more geographically appropriate conference (and bigger money, of course) in the SEC. Each leaves behind its little brother in the Pac. Rather than settle as a Pac-14, the conference seeks out two more adds in the east to remain a Pac-16. In the successful 1st Pac-16 attempt timeline, Houston and Utah are added, while in the successful 2nd Pac-16 attempt timeline, Houston and Kansas are added, leading to the same new Pac-16 lineup in both timelines.
Eventually, the Big Ten attempts to keep up with the SEC by prying Virginia and North Carolina loose from the ACC. Perhaps this happens closer to the mid-2030s when the ACC GOR expires, or perhaps earlier (and the ACC GOR is overruled in court or the ACC receives an acceptable buyout). Notre Dame remains aloof in terms of adding 3 more ACC FB games, so the ACC replenishes their lineup of full members with Cincinnati and West Virginia (which gets in over the objections of Duke and without those of UVA and UNC).
Sooner or later after that, ND finally decides to go all-in by adding those 3 extra games, but only on the condition that the ACC adds Navy FB (in which case ND is only really adding 2 games). Of course, the ACC complies, and we have a P4x16 at last.
Post-re-realignment:
Big 12
East: Central Florida, Memphis, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, UAB
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Rice, SMU, TCU
CUSA
East: Charlotte, East Carolina, FAU, FIU, Marshall, Old Dominion
West: Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA
Sun Belt
East: Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Troy, Western Kentucky
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, South Alabama, Texas State
FBS Ind
Army, BYU, Connecticut, Massachusetts
The MAC and MWC end up the same as they currently are in our timeline.