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Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 09:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 06:40 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 06:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  8 fb schools and a BCS tie in > 3 football schools and a BCS tie in

I wonder if the Big East schools would keep their BCS tie-in, so that the Big 12 would actually have 2. It's not like the non-FB Big East schools need it. In any case, that situation would have only existed for a couple years before the CFP/NY6.

I think they hang on to 1 BCS tie in for the duration of the BCS but after that, it’s tough to say.

I could see the PAC 16 (16), Big 10 (14), SEC (14), and ACC (14) pushing for a post season format that only involved their 4 champions either as a de facto or de Jure system. (The de facto model would be to implement a Plus One model. The BCS would go away and the Rose Bowl would simply host the PAC 16/Big 10 while the ACC/SEC squared off in the Sugar. The Orange and Fiesta could then be free to have tie ins with who ever... oh and what’s this... the Fiesta has the PAC 16 #2 vs ACC #2 and the Orange Bowl has the SEC #2 vs Big Ten #2!

the hiccup is ND—they’d need to be worked in some how.

I think the Big East attempts play as one big 20 member family until the schools that form the bridge between 2005-2012 new fb additions and the old guard basketball schools start getting picked off—Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, WVU, ND. Lose those and things get rocky.

One thing that could keep them together is if, with the loss of Pitt/Cuse they added Utah and BYU and functioned as unique scheduling pods for basketball etc:

West: Utah, BYU, K St, Iowa St, TCU, Baylor
Central: DePaul, Marquette, ND, Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU, USF
East: UConn, Providence, Seton Hall, St John’s, Rutgers, Villanova, Georgetown

In a P4 champs only CFP scenario, ND will have to join a conference in FB if they want to be eligible. If they don't join, nothing has to be done to accommodate them.

And no, that would certainly not keep the Big East together.
11-03-2020 09:46 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
I think we also have to explore the alternative where, if the Pac goes to 16 in 2011 that the Big 10 and SEC don’t feel compelled to match that in the weeks or days that follow:

SEC: TAMU, Missouri, FSU, Clemson

Big 10: Nebraska...and ideally ND and 3 Northeastern schools that get them ND but if the Irish won’t budge Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt

The ACC grabs whatever Big East remnants they need to get to 16.

Iowa St, Kansas St, and Baylor to the MWC.
11-03-2020 09:49 PM
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Post: #23
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 09:49 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think we also have to explore the alternative where, if the Pac goes to 16 in 2011 that the Big 10 and SEC don’t feel compelled to match that in the weeks or days that follow:

SEC: TAMU, Missouri, FSU, Clemson

Big 10: Nebraska...and ideally ND and 3 Northeastern schools that get them ND but if the Irish won’t budge Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt

The ACC grabs whatever Big East remnants they need to get to 16.

Iowa St, Kansas St, and Baylor to the MWC.

I don't think ND would join the Big Ten at that point in time unless the ACC were no longer a power conference, and perhaps not even then.
11-03-2020 09:54 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
Here's a variant scenario where the rebuilding Big 12 looks westward instead of eastward and raids the MWC (and CUSA, but to a lesser extent). The FBS by the present:

[Image: USpbA8o.png]
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2020 11:56 AM by Nerdlinger.)
11-11-2020 11:38 AM
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Post: #25
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-11-2020 11:38 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Here's a variant scenario where the rebuilding Big 12 looks westward instead of eastward and raids the MWC (and CUSA, but to a lesser extent). The FBS by the present:

[Image: z1GpOeJ.png]

I like this pretty well. I would suspect Tulsa goes West (XII) and Tulane goes East (CUSA). I’d also suspect UTEP would be in CUSA and UTSA in MWC. But who knows
11-11-2020 11:52 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 04:07 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  OK, a modification of the present-day alignment in the OP based on Kansas being selected as the final team for the Pac-16 over Utah:

[Image: zvWYWVg.png]

Since Utah doesn't leave the MWC, neither does BYU. When WAC FB collapses, USU gets picked up by the Sun Belt as a FB affiliate along with NMSU, leaving Idaho and SJSU in the lurch. Idaho would end up dropping to the FCS Big Sky, while SJSU drops FB altogether and joins the Big West. One additional bonus of retaining BYU and Utah is that Gonzaga joins the MWC in this timeline.

Note that UConn gets its wish to join the ACC, but as a non-FB member only. Their non-FB sports are meant to balance out FB affiliate Navy, which was added to appease ND.

~~~~~~

Bonus! Present-day non-FB conference alignments:

Big West (11): CSU (Cal Poly, Fullerton, Long Beach State, Northridge, San Jose State), UC (Davis, Irvine, Riverside, San Diego, Santa Barbara), Hawaii

WAC (10): Cal Baptist, Chicago State, CSU Bakersfield, Dixie State, Grand Canyon, New Mexico State, Tarleton State, Utah State, Utah Valley, UTRGV

WCC (9): Loyola Marymount, Pacific, Pepperdine, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Seattle, St. Mary's

Updated my "Kansas to Pac-16, Big 12 restocks to the east" scenario.
11-12-2020 10:39 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
I don’t think the Big 12 would have a chance to rebuild unless the ACC and Big 10 take Big East schools almost immediately after the SEC goes to 14 and PAC 10 goes to 16.

I think your last 3 Big 12 schools and TCU move to the Big East. The Big East then loses Pitt and Cuse and then loses ND, WVU and Rutgers, and then the Catholic 7 split.

I think you get an AAC of:

UConn, USF, Cincinnati, Louisville, Iowa St, Kansas St, TCU, Baylor

That’s 8 schools so they probably add 4 more somewhere, among them UCF and Memphis. Houston and SMU would need the endorsement of the other 2 Texas schools to get included. Utah and BYU would still be in play so tentatively that’s who I’d add to a post split AAC:

West: Utah, BYU, Baylor, TCU, Kansas St, Iowa St
East: Memphis, Louisville, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, UConn

The only way I think you get a “Big 12” is if the Big 12 is reduced to 3 schools and the Big East reduced to 4 fb schools within days of each other and the Big East fb schools and Catholic 7 agree to let the fb schools leave penalty free.

Elsewhere in the G5:

MWC: exactly the same as now

MAC: same as now but with UMass and Temple as FB affiliates

C-USA West: UTEP, Tulsa, SMU, Houston, Rice, Tulane
C-USA East: Marshall, FIU, ECU, Charlotte, UAB, USM

Sunbelt West: UNT, UTSA, LA Tech, ULL, ULM, Ark St
Sunbelt East: USA, Troy, WKU, MTSU, FAU, GA St
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2020 05:24 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
11-12-2020 12:30 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-12-2020 12:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t think the Big 12 would have a chance to rebuild unless the ACC and Big 10 take Big East schools almost immediately after the SEC goes to 14 and PAC 10 goes to 16.

I think your last 3 Big 12 schools and TCU move to the Big East. The Big East then loses Pitt and Cuse and then loses ND, WVU and Rutgers, and then the Catholic 7 split.

I think you get an AAC of:

UConn, USF, Cincinnati, Louisville, Iowa St, Kansas St, TCU, Baylor

That’s 8 schools so they probably add 4 more somewhere, among them UCF and Memphis. Houston and SMU would need the endorsement of the other 2 Texas schools to get included.

The only way I think you get a “Big 12” is if the Big 12 is reduced to 3 schools and the Big East reduced to 4 fb schools within days of each other and the Big East fb schools and Catholic 7 agree to let the fb schools leave penalty free.

In this scenario, if the Big East were to attempt adding Baylor, ISU, and KSU for 2012, I think that would only have accelerated plans to split the FB and BB schools of the BE. To the C7, I don't believe those schools would be considered much better (if at all better) than Houston, Memphis, SMU, Temple, and UCF, and the C7 left before they had to share a conference with them in our timeline. So Pitt/Syracuse to the ACC and the formation of the new non-FB Big East are moved up a year, and the remaining oBE FB schools shack up with Baylor, ISU, KSU, and TCU in the Big 12.

Even if arrangements couldn't be made in time and there had to be a monster 20-team Big East for a season, you still get the same final result. The ACC picks off Pitt/Syracuse/ND, the C7 bolts, and the remaining teams adopt the abandoned Big 12 name. Although perhaps they could have gotten a CCG out of it.

Big East (2012-13)
East: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, TCU
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

Big 12 (2013-14) (returning after a year of dormancy)
Baylor, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, TCU, West Virginia
(awaiting FB-only Navy to join as 12th member)
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2020 01:54 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-12-2020 01:53 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-12-2020 01:53 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(11-12-2020 12:30 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t think the Big 12 would have a chance to rebuild unless the ACC and Big 10 take Big East schools almost immediately after the SEC goes to 14 and PAC 10 goes to 16.

I think your last 3 Big 12 schools and TCU move to the Big East. The Big East then loses Pitt and Cuse and then loses ND, WVU and Rutgers, and then the Catholic 7 split.

I think you get an AAC of:

UConn, USF, Cincinnati, Louisville, Iowa St, Kansas St, TCU, Baylor

That’s 8 schools so they probably add 4 more somewhere, among them UCF and Memphis. Houston and SMU would need the endorsement of the other 2 Texas schools to get included.

The only way I think you get a “Big 12” is if the Big 12 is reduced to 3 schools and the Big East reduced to 4 fb schools within days of each other and the Big East fb schools and Catholic 7 agree to let the fb schools leave penalty free.

In this scenario, if the Big East were to attempt adding Baylor, ISU, and KSU for 2012, I think that would only have accelerated plans to split the FB and BB schools of the BE. To the C7, I don't believe those schools would be considered much better (if at all better) than Houston, Memphis, SMU, Temple, and UCF, and the C7 left before they had to share a conference with them in our timeline. So Pitt/Syracuse to the ACC and the formation of the new non-FB Big East are moved up a year, and the remaining oBE FB schools shack up with Baylor, ISU, KSU, and TCU in the Big 12.

Even if arrangements couldn't be made in time and there had to be a monster 20-team Big East for a season, you still get the same final result. The ACC picks off Pitt/Syracuse/ND, the C7 bolts, and the remaining teams adopt the abandoned Big 12 name. Although perhaps they could have gotten a CCG out of it.

Big East (2012-13)
East: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, TCU
NFB: DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

Big 12 (2013-14) (returning after a year of dormancy)
Baylor, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, TCU, West Virginia
(awaiting FB-only Navy to join as 12th member)

I don’t know that there’s an impetus to split until after Syracuse, Pitt,
and ND all leave. During the summer of 2010 things looked good for the 16 member Big East and the sides were getting along pretty well. They were setting records for number of tournament berths and had performed well in BCS bowls from 2005-2009.

I’m pretty sure we see a 12/20 set up in the Big East for 2011 and 2012. 2013 marks the first year of the split— a 10 member AAC and then a Catholic 7 +3 New Big East. Rutgers and WVU leave the AAC for the 2014 season.
11-12-2020 02:33 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-01-2020 10:40 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m also inclined to think Kansas is in the PAC 16 deal. When Larry Scott soured the deal he was trying to sub out Oklahoma St for Kansas.

Had both parties been patient and the Big 12 schools explained that TAMU was out I think they would have come to terms with Kansas as #16.

The next moves depend on the disposition of the Big Ten and SEC. If there is a knee jerk reaction and both of them feel they have to match that 16 number things could get crazy.

If there is less knee jerk and more of a methodical approach Missouri goes to the SEC with TAMU in 2011. Nebraska joins the Big Ten at the same time.

I can see the ACC also going ahead and trying to pick up Pitt and Cuse, maybe in 2011, but they could wait a year or 2 more.

The Big Ten still ends up a little slow to the party with the Maryland/Rutgers pick up, and WVU gets a life line out of the Big East to replace Maryland in the ACC.

With 9 schools wanting out of the Big 12 in 2011, Iowa St, K St, and Baylor are all in a bit of a bind. I think the Big East takes them in for 2011, and they grab TCU for 12 (CCG). Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and WVU puts them back down to 8. At that point UCF, Memphis, ECU, and Navy round our your 12. (That is of course, unless you’re able to rig up something to get Utah, BYU, Boise St, and San Diego St to come over as fb only schools—if they could keep an AQ in the BCS/Playoff they might stand a chance at doing it)

PAC 16 West: Wash, Wash St, Ore, Ore St, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA
PAC 16 East: Ariz, Ariz St, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, OK St, Texas, TTU

Big 10: same as now

SEC: same as now

ACC Atlantic: BC, Cuse, WVU, NC St, WF, Clemson, FSU
ACC Coastal: Pitt, VT, UVA, UNC, Duke, GT, Miami

AAC East: UConn, Navy, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, ECU
AAC West: Louisville, Memphis, Iowa St, K St, TCU, Baylor

MWC Mountain: UNM, Colorado St, AFA, Wyoming, BYU, Utah
MWC West: Boise St, UNLV, Nevada, San Diego St, Fresno St, Hawaii

C-USA East: Marshall, UAB, USM, Charlotte, ODU, FIU
C-USA West: Tulane, Tulsa, Houston, SMU, Rice, UTEP

SBC: FAU, GA St, WKU, MTSU, Troy, USA, ULL, ULM, Ark St, UNT

WAC: Idaho, San Jose St, Utah St, NMSU, UTSA, Texas St, LA Tech

Flip FAU and FIU and put LaTech in CUSA instead of Charlotte and this makes sense.
11-12-2020 05:07 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-12-2020 05:07 PM)whittx Wrote:  Flip FAU and FIU and put LaTech in CUSA instead of Charlotte and this makes sense.

CUSA invited FIU before FAU. After Houston, SMU, UCF, and later Memphis were tapped by the oBE/AAC, the first schools that CUSA invited as replacements were Charlotte, FIU, LA Tech, UNT, and UTSA. Hard to say if they would have chosen LA Tech over Charlotte. I've heard that one reason for Charlotte's invite (and ODU's a little while later) was because ECU wanted more schools in the region. Of course, ECU ended up leaving. Another advantage Charlotte had over LA Tech is the size of its metro area, a factor that influenced many of CUSA's invites at the time.
11-12-2020 05:27 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-03-2020 09:57 AM)michael.stevens.3110 Wrote:  Texas is the BEST RECRUTING AREA of the Country ...Texas schools do NOT want to be involved in anything controlled by the LeftCoast


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Florida is the best recruiting area in the country.
11-12-2020 05:59 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-12-2020 05:59 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 09:57 AM)michael.stevens.3110 Wrote:  Texas is the BEST RECRUTING AREA of the Country ...Texas schools do NOT want to be involved in anything controlled by the LeftCoast


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Florida is the best recruiting area in the country.

04-cheers
11-13-2020 11:32 AM
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Post: #34
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
So if UT/TT/OU/OSU/KU leave for the Pac in 2011, A&M will be left behind with the remaining 4 Big 12 schools. Does the SEC move up their invite a year, or does A&M try to rebuild the conference for 2011?

Also, even if WVU were available to replace UMD, the ACC would still take Louisville.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2020 03:02 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-19-2020 02:40 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-19-2020 02:40 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  So if UT/TT/OU/OSU/KU leave for the Pac in 2011, A&M will be left behind with the remaining 4 Big 12 schools. Does the SEC move up their invite a year, or does A&M try to rebuild the conference for 2011?

Also, even if WVU were available to replace UMD, the ACC would still take Louisville.

The Pac-10 would never have left Texas A&M behind to die in the Big 12. The only way A&M wouldn't have been included in the Pac expansion was if they themselves didn't want to be included and that would be if they knew they were going to the SEC.
11-19-2020 03:48 PM
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Post: #36
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-19-2020 02:40 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  So if UT/TT/OU/OSU/KU leave for the Pac in 2011, A&M will be left behind with the remaining 4 Big 12 schools. Does the SEC move up their invite a year, or does A&M try to rebuild the conference for 2011?

Also, even if WVU were available to replace UMD, the ACC would still take Louisville.

I think Texas A&M gets invited early by the SEC along with Missouri. Maryland and Rutgers still go to the B1G. Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse still go to the ACC. XII left with Baylor, Iowa St, and Kansas St. XII then expands with Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, TCU, Temple, and West Virginia.

XII
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, South Florida, Temple, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, TCU

Eventually, this cascades down differently than in our timeline because of the schools already in the conferences (assuming all the schools the move up and join conferences still do):

CUSA and SBC each go to 14:

CUSA
East: East Carolina, Florida International, Marshall, Middle Tennessee St, Southern Miss, UAB, Western Kentucky
West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

SBC
East: Appalachian St, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, Georgia St, Old Dominion
West: Arkansas St, North Texas, South Alabama, Texas St, Troy, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe
11-19-2020 03:58 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-19-2020 02:40 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  So if UT/TT/OU/OSU/KU leave for the Pac in 2011, A&M will be left behind with the remaining 4 Big 12 schools. Does the SEC move up their invite a year, or does A&M try to rebuild the conference for 2011?

Also, even if WVU were available to replace UMD, the ACC would still take Louisville.

If the PAC 16 deal happens in time for the 2011 season, Texas A&M and Missouri end up in the SEC a year earlier. I think this move is pretty much a given.

The question is, does the SEC feel need to move past 14 and the ACC and Big 10 move past 12?
11-19-2020 03:59 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-19-2020 03:48 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(11-19-2020 02:40 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  So if UT/TT/OU/OSU/KU leave for the Pac in 2011, A&M will be left behind with the remaining 4 Big 12 schools. Does the SEC move up their invite a year, or does A&M try to rebuild the conference for 2011?

Also, even if WVU were available to replace UMD, the ACC would still take Louisville.

The Pac-10 would never have left Texas A&M behind to die in the Big 12. The only way A&M wouldn't have been included in the Pac expansion was if they themselves didn't want to be included and that would be if they knew they were going to the SEC.

A&M didn't want to go to the Pac. The question is more about timing. Does A&M spend 2011 in the depleted Big 12 with a few adds (e.g., TCU) to bring them up to 8, and then goes to the SEC with Missouri in 2012? Or do they go to the SEC in 2011? Whether or not the Big 12 attempts to rebuild at all may depend on the timing of A&M's move in this case.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2020 04:00 PM by Nerdlinger.)
11-19-2020 03:59 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
There’s a very good chance that if there’s a 16 member and a 14 member Power Conference in 2011 that the Big Ten and ACC feel pressure to go past 12 and that the SEC doesn’t stop at 14 and that it all goes down fast.

There might not be a Big East left for the 2011 season:

The ACC and Big Ten could be pulling away members like Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and even UConn, WVU, and Louisville too. Maybe the ACC moves quick enough and grabs 4 Big East schools. Maybe the even move quick enough to get a GOR in place before the Big 10 swipes Maryland and the SEC swipes Clemson and Florida St.

The SEC potentially grabs Florida St and Clemson to go to 16 and dropping the ACC to 14.

In the end there might be a race to see where the Big East and Big 12 remnants land—under who’s umbrella.
11-19-2020 04:20 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Pac-16 Play-by-Play: How would realignment have shaken out in a Pac-16 scenario?
(11-19-2020 04:20 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There’s a very good chance that if there’s a 16 member and a 14 member Power Conference in 2011 that the Big Ten and ACC feel pressure to go past 12 and that the SEC doesn’t stop at 14 and that it all goes down fast.

There might not be a Big East left for the 2011 season:

The ACC and Big Ten could be pulling away members like Pitt, Cuse, Rutgers, and even UConn, WVU, and Louisville too. Maybe the ACC moves quick enough and grabs 4 Big East schools. Maybe the even move quick enough to get a GOR in place before the Big 10 swipes Maryland and the SEC swipes Clemson and Florida St.

The SEC potentially grabs Florida St and Clemson to go to 16 and dropping the ACC to 14.

In the end there might be a race to see where the Big East and Big 12 remnants land—under who’s umbrella.

I thought your argument was that the Big East was rock-solid right up until everything fell apart.
11-19-2020 05:04 PM
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