https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2020/10/...-hurricane

(10-28-2020 10:01 AM)HoustonRocks Wrote:  https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2020/10/...-hurricane

They skipped 4th place Navy on that list.

Off topic, but what in blazes was the Tamp Bay manager thinking last night? Did he have money on the Dodgers? I cannot recall a more obvious coaching blunder than pulling your starting pitcher who through 6 innings had 9 Ks, 1 hit, and zero runs.

(10-28-2020 10:31 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(10-28-2020 10:01 AM)HoustonRocks Wrote:  https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2020/10/...-hurricane

They skipped 4th place Navy on that list.

That's because they would have to win out in order to make it against arguably the hardest remaining schedule in the conference.

(10-28-2020 12:44 PM)vick mike Wrote:  Off topic, but what in blazes was the Tamp Bay manager thinking last night? Did he have money on the Dodgers? I cannot recall a more obvious coaching blunder than pulling your starting pitcher who through 6 innings had 9 Ks, 1 hit, and zero runs.

I got to be friends with an ex-pitcher who played for Tampa Bay (early 2000's). He married my old business partners daughter. We text each other all the time during games. During the World Series though, I've waited til after the games, because I didn't want to jinx him. Last night I couldn't hold back. I texted, why the F did they pull Snell? He replied, analytics and the fng dumb ass manager.

Either UH or UCF and either SMU or Navy will be eliminated this weekend. If Memphis loses to Cincy, they will be eliminated.

(10-28-2020 02:07 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Either UH or UCF will be eliminated this weekend. If Memphis loses to Cincy, they will be eliminated. If SMU loses to Navy, they will be eliminated.

houston is undefeated in conference play... houston losses this week but beats cincy next week, we'll have tie breakers over the top team in the league...

this is a must win for ucf not houston..

usf, temple, ecu, tulane are probably not competing for the title this year... out of those teams left i think ucf is the only one really facing a title elimination game this week.

the conference regular season champ might be undefeated or have 1 loss.. but the 2nd team in the conference title game will likely have 2 losses minimum.. memphis, smu, navy can all take a second loss, on the presumption they win out...which i wouldn't call impossible

memphis, smu and navy are likely playing for a chance to still be able to host the ccg

(10-28-2020 02:34 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(10-28-2020 02:07 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Either UH or UCF will be eliminated this weekend. If Memphis loses to Cincy, they will be eliminated. If SMU loses to Navy, they will be eliminated.

houston is undefeated in conference play... houston losses this week but beats cincy next week, we'll have tie breakers over the top team in the league...

this is a must win for ucf not houston..

usf, temple, ecu, tulane are probably not competing for the title this year... out of those teams left i think ucf is the only one really facing a title elimination game this week.

the conference regular season champ might be undefeated or have 1 loss.. but the 2nd team in the conference title game will likely have 2 losses minimum.. memphis, smu, navy can all take a second loss, on the presumption they win out...which i wouldn't call impossible

memphis, smu and navy are likely playing for a chance to still be able to host the ccg

You are right, I stand corrected. But I don't think that the number 2 team will have 2 losses, though that is certainly a possibility.

Eh...This guy didn't watch the games...

Memphis was clearly better than SMU that day...Too many mistakes

UCF was better than Memphis...Memphis had to covert on 30,000 straight 4th downs to win by 1 point.

(10-28-2020 12:46 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(10-28-2020 10:31 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(10-28-2020 10:01 AM)HoustonRocks Wrote:  https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2020/10/...-hurricane

They skipped 4th place Navy on that list.

That's because they would have to win out in order to make it against arguably the hardest remaining schedule in the conference.

Remaining schedule is at SMU, Tulsa and Memphis at our place, at Green UConn. We completely avoid Cincy and UCF. Cincinnati and Tulsa definitely have harder remaining schedules. Arguable whether Navy's is harder than UCF, SMU, or Houston's.

Underdog Dynasty guy explained why he wasn't listing Navy. I also recall him previewing 2019, and there was NO WAY he saw more than 2 or three wins for Navy.

Navy's obviously going to beat Green UConn but I don't see them getting past Tulsa and Memphis. I like their chances of winning against SMU this weekend though.

Regardless of the results I don't think that slate qualifies as the hardest remaining schedules. Not going to do a deep dive on it but just looking at UH's remaining slate, we have:

UCF
@UC
USF
@SMU
Tulsa
@Memphis

So basically the same slate except you get USF at home and Memphis on the road, then you add UCF/UC. Navy's schedule was definitely back loaded but truthfully they just kind of have an easier schedule this year.

(10-28-2020 09:38 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Navy's obviously going to beat Green UConn but I don't see them getting past Tulsa and Memphis. I like their chances of winning against SMU this weekend though.

Regardless of the results I don't think that slate qualifies as the hardest remaining schedules. Not going to do a deep dive on it but just looking at UH's remaining slate, we have:

UCF
@UC
USF
@SMU
Tulsa
@Memphis

So basically the same slate except you get USF at home and Memphis on the road, then you add UCF/UC. Navy's schedule was definitely back loaded but truthfully they just kind of have an easier schedule this year.

Bottom line is we don't need Navy or Navy (Especially Navy) anywhere near the top of this league.

If Houston or Navy is in the Conference Championship game BYU has a legit beef.

(10-28-2020 10:21 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(10-28-2020 09:38 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Navy's obviously going to beat Green UConn but I don't see them getting past Tulsa and Memphis. I like their chances of winning against SMU this weekend though.

Regardless of the results I don't think that slate qualifies as the hardest remaining schedules. Not going to do a deep dive on it but just looking at UH's remaining slate, we have:

UCF
@UC
USF
@SMU
Tulsa
@Memphis

So basically the same slate except you get USF at home and Memphis on the road, then you add UCF/UC. Navy's schedule was definitely back loaded but truthfully they just kind of have an easier schedule this year.

Bottom line is we don't need Navy or Navy (Especially Navy) anywhere near the top of this league.

If Houston or Navy is in the Conference Championship game BYU has a legit beef.

?

(10-29-2020 12:11 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-28-2020 10:21 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(10-28-2020 09:38 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Navy's obviously going to beat Green UConn but I don't see them getting past Tulsa and Memphis. I like their chances of winning against SMU this weekend though.

Regardless of the results I don't think that slate qualifies as the hardest remaining schedules. Not going to do a deep dive on it but just looking at UH's remaining slate, we have:

UCF
@UC
USF
@SMU
Tulsa
@Memphis

So basically the same slate except you get USF at home and Memphis on the road, then you add UCF/UC. Navy's schedule was definitely back loaded but truthfully they just kind of have an easier schedule this year.

Bottom line is we don't need Navy or Navy (Especially Navy) anywhere near the top of this league.

If Houston or Navy is in the Conference Championship game BYU has a legit beef.

?

i thnk his point is that, both houston and navy have lost to BYU badly (especially navy)
the success of those 2 teams will be used as a comparison point later on in the season for the NY6.. as boise and sdsu also play boise later on..

(10-29-2020 01:32 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(10-29-2020 12:11 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-28-2020 10:21 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(10-28-2020 09:38 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Navy's obviously going to beat Green UConn but I don't see them getting past Tulsa and Memphis. I like their chances of winning against SMU this weekend though.

Regardless of the results I don't think that slate qualifies as the hardest remaining schedules. Not going to do a deep dive on it but just looking at UH's remaining slate, we have:

UCF
@UC
USF
@SMU
Tulsa
@Memphis

So basically the same slate except you get USF at home and Memphis on the road, then you add UCF/UC. Navy's schedule was definitely back loaded but truthfully they just kind of have an easier schedule this year.

Bottom line is we don't need Navy or Navy (Especially Navy) anywhere near the top of this league.

If Houston or Navy is in the Conference Championship game BYU has a legit beef.

?

i thnk his point is that, both houston and navy have lost to BYU badly (especially navy)
the success of those 2 teams will be used as a comparison point later on in the season for the NY6.. as boise and sdsu also play boise later on..

My question mark was to his Navy and Navy comment and the BYU having beef comment.

I'll wait until the end to see who the #1 and #2 team's are.

Chances pre Tulsa-ECU game:

(Playoff/Top G5*/American Champs/CCG Appearances) % of 10,000 simulations
(4/5/27/48) Cincinnati (biggest game left: Memphis, this week)
(1/3/31/46) Memphis (biggest game left: Cincinnati, this week)
(0/1/12/28) Houston (biggest game left: Memphis, current season finale)
(0/0/9/24) SMU (biggest game left: vs. Tulsa)
(0/0/8/24) Tulsa (biggest game left: Cincinnati, current season finale)
(0/0/6/12) UCF (biggest game left: Houston, this week)
(0/0/3/10) Navy (biggest game left: vs. Memphis)
*Boise and Marshall dominate the probabilities for "Top G5" given their higher chances of going undefeated

The American is the conference with the most teams with >10% chance of making their CCG. Lots of parity and excitement this year.

After Week 9 the AAC now has 2 undefeated in conference teams and 2-1 loss in conference teams. UCF could be a major spoiler this season but they are not on SMU's schedule, and Tulsa has already beaten them.