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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #1
Playoffs
Got bored at work and decided to run some hypotheticals. Below you'll find all the realistic Playoff Contenders (I'm not including BYU, Boise State, or Indiana) and their remaining schedules. Teams in green indicate crossovers with other contenders. I know, I know, I know, P5 bias and the Cartel and blah blah blah. However long of a shot it is, I want to hear some scenarios in which UC might sneak in. For me, the most realistic possibility is as follows:

ACC Scenarios
Clemson undefeated/Playoff
ND Loses to Clemson Twice (Champ)
ND Beats UNC
UNC Beats Miami
Ideally, ND Loses Another

SEC Scenarios
Bama undefeated/Playoff
Winner of UGA/FLA game loses to Bama in Champ
A&M loses again

B12 Scenarios
Oklahoma State Loses to Kstate
Oklahoma State misses B12 championship

B10 Scenarios
OSU Undefeated/Playoff
Michigan Beats Wisconsin
Wisconsin loses to OSU In B10 Champ
Penn State beats Michigan
Covid cancellatins make B10 teams have only 6 or 7 games

Pac 12
Every Oregon game ends after midnight
No one remembers Oregon is playing
Only seven games??

That would put Clemson, Bama, and OSU in the playoff. Every other contender would have 2 losses, with the exception of Oklahoma State and Oregon. But those are wild cards because the B12 and Pac12 both suck.

[Image: 72Vjpgt.jpeg]
 
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2020 01:27 PM by Cataclysmo.)
10-27-2020 01:23 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Playoffs
I'll add some to our own schedule:

Army wins out (beats Navy, Tulane, and Air Force) and gets ranked about #22 at 10-1.
SMU remains in the top 20.
Memphis finishes in the top 25.
Tulsa/UCF Finish in the top 25.

Our conference championship opponent is ranked.

That puts us at potentially 3-6 Top 25 wins depending on how you look at it.
 
10-27-2020 01:31 PM
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Dannyboy Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Playoffs


 
10-27-2020 01:43 PM
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nachoman91 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Playoffs
Feels like you made this more complicated than needed. All you have to do is look at the six teams above UC.

Clemson wins out - makes playoffs
Alabama wins out - makes playoffs
Ohio State wins out - makes playoffs
Notre Dame loses to Clemson twice - 2 losses so they're out
Georgia loses to Alabama - 2 losses so they're out
Oklahoma State loses to either Texas, Oklahoma or TCU and since they are only one spot ahead UC will likely jump them - so they're out

UC finishes the season 4th.

And I don't think that's a stretch at all for that to happen. Clemson, Bama and OSU will be favored in every remaining game. And Oklahoma State has three very tough games remaining.
 
10-27-2020 01:46 PM
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JPBearcat3 Offline
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RE: Playoffs
(10-27-2020 01:46 PM)nachoman91 Wrote:  Feels like you made this more complicated than needed. All you have to do is look at the six teams above UC.

Clemson wins out - makes playoffs
Alabama wins out - makes playoffs
Ohio State wins out - makes playoffs
Notre Dame loses to Clemson twice - 2 losses so they're out
Georgia loses to Alabama - 2 losses so they're out
Oklahoma State loses to either Texas, Oklahoma or TCU and since they are only one spot ahead UC will likely jump them - so they're out

UC finishes the season 4th.

And I don't think that's a stretch at all for that to happen. Clemson, Bama and OSU will be favored in every remaining game. And Oklahoma State has three very tough games remaining.

I tend to agree with this. It wouldn't be unheard of, though, for a P5 1-loss team to leapfrog UC if the Bearcats were ranked ahead and had a less than thrilling victory one week.

That said, I sort of feel like the Bearcats are currently in the playoff. If they win out, we're in. Any loss and it's over.
 
10-27-2020 01:54 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #6
Playoffs
That's the simplest path forward but we saw in 2017 how reluctant the committee was to rank UCF above even 2-loss P5s. Then a year later they showed UCF more respect, and had them at #8 to finish the year, behind only one 2 loss team and 3 1 loss teams.

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10-27-2020 02:10 PM
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BearcatMan Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Playoffs
The only way for us to make the Playoff is if Oklahoma State, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oregon all go undefeated along with us having 4 wins against ranked teams. That'll make them expand the playoff in the future.
 
10-27-2020 02:18 PM
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dubcat14 Offline
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RE: Playoffs
(10-27-2020 01:46 PM)nachoman91 Wrote:  Feels like you made this more complicated than needed. All you have to do is look at the six teams above UC.

Clemson wins out - makes playoffs
Alabama wins out - makes playoffs
Ohio State wins out - makes playoffs
Notre Dame loses to Clemson twice - 2 losses so they're out
Georgia loses to Alabama - 2 losses so they're out
Oklahoma State loses to either Texas, Oklahoma or TCU and since they are only one spot ahead UC will likely jump them - so they're out

UC finishes the season 4th.

And I don't think that's a stretch at all for that to happen. Clemson, Bama and OSU will be favored in every remaining game. And Oklahoma State has three very tough games remaining.

There will be instances going forward where UC is leapfrogged by other schools. I'm not certain those are the only 3 (ND, OKSU, Georgia) that we need to worry about. A&M, Wisky, Florida, Miami, Michigan, Oregon, NC, Kansas State, and Indiana are all behind us either undefeated or with one loss and they'll climb fast. I know they'll quickly knock each other down but something to be mindful of and an argument could be made whether some of those teams would jump us or not if they came in with one loss (looking at you Indiana, Kansas State, and North Carolina)

In addition, the committee will likely start us back closer to 10-11 and the climb will be tougher.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2020 02:23 PM by dubcat14.)
10-27-2020 02:19 PM
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dubcat14 Offline
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RE: Playoffs
(10-27-2020 02:18 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  The only way for us to make the Playoff is if Oklahoma State, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oregon all go undefeated along with us having 4 wins against ranked teams. That'll make them expand the playoff in the future.

Hope for absolute chaos or hope for perfection from 5 teams. Both cases are going to be extremely hard to come by.
 
10-27-2020 02:25 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #10
Playoffs
Chaos is the name of this season anyways. Wisconsin's stud QB just got diagnosed with Covid and will be out 3 weeks (including the Michigan game). Their backup QB (Chase Wolf for those who remember recruiting him) also has covid. Apart from the upsets possible there, what happens if a B10 team has to cancel some games? Does the committee take a 6-1 Wisconsion over a 11-0 Cincinnati?

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10-27-2020 02:33 PM
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dubcat14 Offline
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RE: Playoffs
(10-27-2020 02:33 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Chaos is the name of this season anyways. Wisconsin's stud QB just got diagnosed with Covid and will be out 3 weeks (including the Michigan game). Their backup QB (Chase Wolf for those who remember recruiting him) also has covid. Apart from the upsets possible there, what happens if a B10 team has to cancel some games? Does the committee take a 6-1 Wisconsion over a 11-0 Cincinnati?

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Yep Chase Wolf (St. X) is the reason we have Ben Bryant.

If it's happening in the Big Ten it'll be the same for the Pac 12 too. They put themselves behind the 8 ball with a limited schedule and no time for make ups. If Oregon has to miss a game is 6-0 going to be better than a potential UC 11-0 (not to go the way of Daniel Jones).
 
10-27-2020 02:40 PM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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RE: Playoffs
I think if UC can win out, this is our best chance to get in the playoff. The committee can use this weird COVID year to put a G5 team in the playoff, then for the next 20 years if any G5 team complains about getting left out, the committee can say, "We are fair about it. Look at when we put Cincinnati in the playoffs in 2020."
 
10-27-2020 02:40 PM
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OKIcat Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Playoffs
(10-27-2020 02:33 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Chaos is the name of this season anyways. Wisconsin's stud QB just got diagnosed with Covid and will be out 3 weeks (including the Michigan game). Their backup QB (Chase Wolf for those who remember recruiting him) also has covid. Apart from the upsets possible there, what happens if a B10 team has to cancel some games? Does the committee take a 6-1 Wisconsion over a 11-0 Cincinnati?

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Well to push a little further on that scenario, Cincy is 11-0 with 3 or more top 25 wins; Wisconsin's ranked opponents are victims of cancellations and its 6 wins are against inferior opponents in the eyes of the selection committee.

Here's hoping the 'Cats can win out and force these tough questions.
 
10-27-2020 03:51 PM
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bcat1997 Offline
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RE: Playoffs
Love the playoff discussion, but we're only 4-0 with a bear of a schedule left. Too early for this discussion IMO.
 
10-27-2020 04:02 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Playoffs
If UC goes undefeated, I like our odds of making the playoffs.


PAC: Only 2 ranked teams, only a 7-game schedule, Oregon & USC don't play each other so only 1 potential win over a ranked team.

Big 10: No way they let 2 Big Ten teams in over an undefeated UC. Not after the power move they tried to pull this summer.

Big 12: Oklahoma State is the only possibility, and they'd have to go undefeated because of the Big 12's losses to Sun Belt teams and OSU's struggle against Tulsa 16-7. The only other 1-loss team (KSU) lost to Arkansas State.

ACC: The four leading teams have lots of games left against each other. Highly unlikely they end up with two 1-loss teams.

SEC: Alabama probably wins out. A 1-loss Texas A&M won't leap UC. The greatest threat to UC making the playoffs is if Alabama loses the SEC championship game.
 
10-27-2020 04:19 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: Playoffs
If we go undefeated then all bets are off due to the COVID year scheduling. UCF was ranked as high as #6 in the AP poll during their magical 2017 run. We all know how that turned out. That said, I agree that an undefeated Cincinnati further amps up the discussion about the CFP format and the bogus line drawn between P5/P6/G5. Expand the damn playoffs and get a greater sample of the top teams. Enough already! Shoot, the tv money is there for the taking...
 
10-27-2020 04:37 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: Playoffs
I don't think the positive sports writers remarks hurts, that is for sure. Lets make Memphis bad again on Saturday.
 
10-27-2020 04:42 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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RE: Playoffs
(10-27-2020 04:02 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  Love the playoff discussion, but we're only 4-0 with a bear of a schedule left. Too early for this discussion IMO.
Yes but that's for the team to worry about. They play football and I sit here, drink beer, and post about dream scenarios online.

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10-27-2020 04:43 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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RE: Playoffs
(10-27-2020 04:37 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  If we go undefeated then all bets are off due to the COVID year scheduling. UCF was ranked as high as #6 in the AP poll during their magical 2017 run. We all know how that turned out. That said, I agree that an undefeated Cincinnati further amps up the discussion about the CFP format and the bogus line drawn between P5/P6/G5. Expand the damn playoffs and get a greater sample of the top teams. Enough already! Shoot, the tv money is there for the taking...

UCF didn't get to #6 until after the bowl game. Their highest rank during the season was #10 in the final regular-season poll.

UC is starting much higher than them, and we have the schedule strength to stay there (UCF's schedule was ridiculously weak in 2017).
 
10-27-2020 05:09 PM
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doss2 Offline
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RE: Playoffs
I wish it so but I fear you guys are inhaling.

There could be 4 undefeated teams, AL, Clemson, OSU and UC and everyone else with 2 losses and one of those 2 loss teams (SEC) would get the 4th spot.

Also we have a very though road. Memphis and UH here. UCF and Tulsa on the road.
 
10-27-2020 05:19 PM
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