The unofficial online home for fans of the University of Cincinnati Bearcats. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(11-22-2020 07:11 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  On second thought, I'll just call him Hermey. There is an uncanny resemblance if he'd let his hair grow out...



1 Bama
2 Ohio St
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 Northwestern
6 BYU
7 Florida
8 TXAM

That’s actually pretty accurate but BYU will be down at 8

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ll-playoff

Who has the best chance to make the College Football Playoff?

ESPN Stats & Information

The Cincinnati Bearcats have reached the all-important top four of the Allstate Playoff Predictor after their win over UCF on Saturday. Luke Fickell's group has not quite reached the promised land, however.
Allstate Playoff Predictor

How will Saturday's top games affect the College Football Playoff chase? What are the current odds for the top four? The Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Check back every week as the odds are updated following that week's games.

Cincinnati was a 36-33 winner at UCF in Week 10, moving to 8-0 and giving it a 35.3% chance to reach the College Football Playoff (up from 12% a week ago) behind only Alabama (94.2%), Ohio State (71.1%) and Notre Dame (59.3%).

Hot on the Bearcats' trail are Clemson (33.5% to reach the playoff), Oregon (26.9%) and USC (14.8%). The Tigers were idle Saturday after their game at Florida State was postponed due to coronavirus concerns. Oregon (38-35 over UCLA) and USC (33-17 over Utah) were both winners.

Cincinnati has up to three games remaining on its schedule -- at Temple next Saturday in Philadelphia, at Tulsa on Dec. 12, and then a likely meeting in the American Athletic Conference championship game on Dec. 19. Winning out will probably not be enough to keep the Bearcats in the top four by itself, with the results of surrounding teams in the Allstate Playoff Predictor playing a key role in Cincinnati's quest to become the first Group of 5 team to reach the CFP.
Luke Fickell and Cincinnati earned a hard-fought 36-33 win over UCF on Saturday. Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama (88.8% to 94.2%), Ohio State (61.4 to 71.1%) and Notre Dame (48.7% to 59.3%) all saw their chances to reach the CFP increase with Week 10 results. Other positive movers included aforementioned Cincinnati, USC (4.8% to 14.8%), Northwestern (3.3% to 13.9%) and Texas A&M (6.7% to 11.6%).

On the negative side of the ledger, Clemson (42.8% to 33.5%) saw its chances drop slightly along with Oregon (29.8% to 26.9%), BYU (25.1% to 14.1%) and Florida (17.9% to 12.2%). Wisconsin, which fell to Northwestern, suffered the most precipitous drop among the leaders, falling from 54.9% to reach the playoff to just 9.2%.

A complete look at this week's Allstate Playoff Predictor:
Allstate Playoff Predictor
Team (Record)
Make Playoff Win Title
Alabama (7-0) 94.2% 54.2%
Ohio State (4-0) 71.1% 18.7%
Notre Dame (8-0) 59.3% 7.6%
Cincinnati (8-0) 35.3% 2.3%
Clemson (7-1) 33.5% 8.2%
Oregon (3-0) 26.9% 1.9%
USC (3-0) 14.8% 0.8%
BYU (9-0) 14.1% 0.8%
Northwestern (5-0) 13.9% 0.8%
Florida (6-1) 12.2% 1.9%
Texas A&M (5-1) 11.6% 0.8%
Wisconsin (2-1) 9.2% 1.9%
Miami (7-1) 1.3% <.1%
Oklahoma (6-2) 0.8% 0.1%
Indiana (4-1) 0.7% <.1%
Washington (2-0) 0.7% <.1%
Georgia (5-2) 0.2% <.1%
Texas (5-2) 0.1% <.1%

great UC video and photo not copied

I don't have an issue with the game, but the date is obviously an issue.

https://www.landgrantholyland.com/2020/1...arterfinal

(11-23-2020 12:10 AM)dsquare Wrote:  I don't have an issue with the game, but the date is obviously an issue.

https://www.landgrantholyland.com/2020/1...arterfinal

Maybe Ohio State instead should pick up a game to pad their resume.

The CFP was brilliant. Instead of an 8 team BE earning an auto bid plus at large opportunities in the BCS, it
effectively formed a mega conference of 60+ G5 plus the independents not named Notre Dame to fight it out for one spot. Now the idea de jure is that UC needs to not only go undefeated and win the AAC conference championship but must also eliminate an undefeated top 10 BYU from the NY6 to be considered. It’s sheer evil genius, I tell ya’.

(11-23-2020 09:34 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  The CFP was brilliant. Instead of an 8 team BE earning an auto bid plus at large opportunities in the BCS, it
effectively formed a mega conference of 60+ G5 plus the independents not named Notre Dame to fight it out for one spot. Now the idea de jure is that UC needs to not only go undefeated and win the AAC conference championship but must also eliminate an undefeated top 10 BYU from the NY6 to be considered. It’s sheer evil genius, I tell ya’.

Yep. Not to mention it concentrates more money in the hands of the cartel, who will be always be locked in for the 4 CFP spots.

Everyone knows there are only a small number of schools who have access to the CFP on a yearly basis. For that reason, we have seen schools like Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma and a few others recruit at an unprecedented level since they reduced the number of scholarships to 85. They are literally getting the top guys at every position with a few exceptions.

The other things they intended to do was to kill as much of the non-P5 as they can. Sure there are the top level schools (which we are among), but schools at the bottom of the G5 herd are as crappy as they have ever been. An early casualty was Idaho who was forced to drop to FCS, but schools like New Mexico State, Louisiana-Monroe, UConn, a few of the MAC schools-- they are literally getting choked out because they can't afford it anymore.

BYU needs there to be a game against us...I don't think the inverse is true.

(11-23-2020 10:22 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  BYU needs there to be a game against us...I don't think the inverse is true.

Bingo.


Projections have BYU 3 spots behind UC.

Of course CFP rankings projections have 1 loss teams like Texas A&M, Florida, freaking Wisconsin and Miami in the 4 spots ahead of UC.

(11-23-2020 10:32 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 10:22 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  BYU needs there to be a game against us...I don't think the inverse is true.

Bingo.


Projections have BYU 3 spots behind UC.

Of course CFP rankings projections have 1 loss teams like Texas A&M, Florida, freaking Wisconsin and Miami in the 4 spots ahead of UC.

Call me cynical, but I expect the CFP to have us lower than where we are in the AP and Coaches Poll.

(11-23-2020 10:35 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 10:32 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 10:22 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  BYU needs there to be a game against us...I don't think the inverse is true.

Bingo.


Projections have BYU 3 spots behind UC.

Of course CFP rankings projections have 1 loss teams like Texas A&M, Florida, freaking Wisconsin and Miami in the 4 spots ahead of UC.

Call me cynical, but I expect the CFP to have us lower than where we are in the AP and Coaches Poll.

I literally wouldn't be surprised with us falling anywhere between 5-11.

Projections have UC at 9 and BYU 12.

(11-23-2020 10:35 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 10:32 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 10:22 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  BYU needs there to be a game against us...I don't think the inverse is true.

Bingo.


Projections have BYU 3 spots behind UC.

Of course CFP rankings projections have 1 loss teams like Texas A&M, Florida, freaking Wisconsin and Miami in the 4 spots ahead of UC.

Call me cynical, but I expect the CFP to have us lower than where we are in the AP and Coaches Poll.

I expect us to be 7th with the distinction being that nothing we do will move us up. Florida will stay up by virtue of playing Kentucky Tennessee and LSU. If they falter, A&M moves up. If they falter Northwestern moves up and so on and so forth. The good news is that either Florida or Alabama is guaranteed to lose a game in the SEC championship. For our sake, we need that to be Florida because a 1 loss Bama for sure still gets in. It'd also be huge if either Notre Dame wins against Clemson again or gets blown out of the water.

(11-23-2020 09:34 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  The CFP was brilliant. Instead of an 8 team BE earning an auto bid plus at large opportunities in the BCS, it
effectively formed a mega conference of 60+ G5 plus the independents not named Notre Dame to fight it out for one spot. Now the idea de jure is that UC needs to not only go undefeated and win the AAC conference championship but must also eliminate an undefeated top 10 BYU from the NY6 to be considered. It’s sheer evil genius, I tell ya’.

BYU isn’t eligible for the G5 NY6 game. They aren’t in the Group of 5 and thus they aren’t eligible for that bid as they can’t win a G5 conference.

Not that it changes most of what you said, it’s just something I felt needed clarified.

Do you guys realize how great the publicity would be if we scheduled a Top 10 team mid season and beat them? That's a ballsy move that everyone would love. Does it help propel us over an A&M or UF type of school? I dont know. But a loss wouldn't drop us below any of the other G5 teams. Very little risk, extremely high potential.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

(11-23-2020 10:47 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Projections have UC at 9 and BYU 12.

As I’ve said, I expect most/all undefeated P5 teams to be ahead of us, so 9th seems about where I expect. That said, it doesn’t really change our path as most of those ahead of us will still have to play each other and will knock each other off. Example Northwestern vs Ohio State. Oregon vs USC, Florida vs Alabama, Clemson vs Notre Dame, etc...

There is still a very clear path and whether teams like Northwestern, Florida, etc... are ahead of us is irrelevant. We always needed things to fall our way and that’s not changed. Just keep winning and let’s see how things shake out down the stretch.

The goal is get the NY6 bid for the G5. I am more concerned about where Marshall, Coastal Carolina, and Nevada are ranked. Also would like to see how they treat BYU vs Cincinnati vs Northwestern in terms of SOR.

(11-23-2020 11:07 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  The goal is get the NY6 bid for the G5. I am more concerned about where Marshall, Coastal Carolina, and Nevada are ranked. Also would like to see how they treat BYU vs Cincinnati vs Northwestern in terms of SOR.

As long as we go undefeated there is no way any of the other G5 Teams will be able to pass us. With that said, the goal should be to win all our games and guarantee ourselves the NY6 game and hope we get help to make the CFP.

Going undefeated would also create pressure and momentum for expansion if we don’t end up getting the CFP bid. That would be a huge benefit to us moving forward IMO.

I see range from 5 to 8. I don't see Oregon, Miami, or IU ahead of us. 5 if they focus on SOR and put us in over 1 loss A&M and Florida. 7 or 8 if not. Difference between 7 and 8 is Northwestern...they may place in above us and I can't really argue with that...undefeated with Wisky win. Here is my top 8, but I'm sure Clemson will slot higher.

Bama
ND
OSU
Northwestern
Cincy
Clemson
A&M
Florida

(11-23-2020 10:59 AM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  

(11-23-2020 09:34 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  The CFP was brilliant. Instead of an 8 team BE earning an auto bid plus at large opportunities in the BCS, it
effectively formed a mega conference of 60+ G5 plus the independents not named Notre Dame to fight it out for one spot. Now the idea de jure is that UC needs to not only go undefeated and win the AAC conference championship but must also eliminate an undefeated top 10 BYU from the NY6 to be considered. It’s sheer evil genius, I tell ya’.

BYU isn’t eligible for the G5 NY6 game. They aren’t in the Group of 5 and thus they aren’t eligible for that bid as they can’t win a G5 conference.

Not that it changes most of what you said, it’s just something I felt needed clarified.

My point was that if UC were to need to play and then beat BYU just to be considered it eliminates BYU from consideration for an at large which opens yet another NY6 spot for the cartel. If BYU doesn’t play UC they would likely be in line for an at large bid for the NY6 games if that is the top 12.

(11-23-2020 11:23 AM)bcat1997 Wrote:  I see range from 5 to 8. I don't see Oregon, Miami, or IU ahead of us. 5 if they focus on SOR and put us in over 1 loss A&M and Florida. 7 or 8 if not. Difference between 7 and 8 is Northwestern...they may place in above us and I can't really argue with that...undefeated with Wisky win. Here is my top 8, but I'm sure Clemson will slot higher.

Bama
ND
OSU
Northwestern
Cincy
Clemson
A&M
Florida

This is what it SHOULD be probably, but looking at it from the committee’s point of view and I would be surprised if we aren’t below all those teams. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon is ahead of us, but a close win against UCLA may hold them off for another week.

Hope I’m wrong and they give us more credit than I expect. Out of curiousity, does anyone know what the highest G5 ranking was on the first release? I believe the overall highest a G5 ever ranked was when UCF finished #8 in 2018. Would be great if we can tie the highest ever ranking on the first release of the season.