Muh Nate..

His 2016 Presidential Prediction:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201...-forecast/

I know the date says November 8, but I'm sure that's pretty much the line he held.

His 2020 Prediction:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...-forecast/

Article on Trafalgar being accurate:

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/h...016-231092

And finally, Nate Silver calling Trafalgar Polls crazy:

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/polit...s-as-crazy


So let me get this right.. Nate pretty much was wrong last go around. Trafalgar has been kinda accurate the last couple of elections.. And Nate is calling them crazy for being accurate?

He’s calling them crazy because they don’t say what he wants them to say.

538 is partisan cheerleading propaganda.

When dems get a 38% turnout model, the final totals come close to what Nate is showing. When they dont, Nate is sh*t. This would make sense since many of the polls are oversampling dems to show a 40%+ turnout.

(10-27-2020 08:50 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  He’s calling them crazy because they don’t say what he wants them to say.

538 is partisan cheerleading propaganda.

He's just a liberal living in a bubble. He doesn't even know any Republicans. How else do you explain when he said Trump had a 30% chance to win, he prefaced it with "I don't want to scare anyone, but...."

Anyone who says that has no business being a pollster. He doesn't have the slightest bit of objectivity.

OH MUH NATE!!!


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I see so much more excitement for Trump than Biden, and I live in South Jersey, basically a suburb of Philly. We had a huge Trump rally in my little town this weekend.

MUH NATE!

(10-27-2020 08:58 AM)GrayBeard Wrote:  I see so much more excitement for Trump than Biden, and I live in South Jersey, basically a suburb of Philly. We had a huge Trump rally in my little town this weekend.

You probably can tell me what's going on with the east side of PA. I can fill you in from the center of the state and west.

(10-27-2020 09:03 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(10-27-2020 08:58 AM)GrayBeard Wrote:  I see so much more excitement for Trump than Biden, and I live in South Jersey, basically a suburb of Philly. We had a huge Trump rally in my little town this weekend.

You probably can tell me what's going on with the east side of PA. I can fill you in from the center of the state and west.

I think it all may come down to the voter turnout in West Philly (see Philly Burns thread). They didn't really turnout in 2016, so we will see about 2020. I do think more trump supporters will turn out as well, so it may take a large surge in West Philly.

(10-27-2020 08:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-27-2020 08:50 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  He’s calling them crazy because they don’t say what he wants them to say.

538 is partisan cheerleading propaganda.

He's just a liberal living in a bubble. He doesn't even know any Republicans. How else do you explain when he said Trump had a 30% chance to win, he prefaced it with "I don't want to scare anyone, but...."

Anyone who says that has no business being a pollster. He doesn't have the slightest bit of objectivity.

Exactly. take a drive Nate. Get outside of the bubble. Drive through the countryside. The dumb peasants you loathe are restless and angry. They are about to drive a stake into the heart of yet another decrepit immoral Progressive Scumbag.

Don’t linger to long Nate... keep your head on a swivel...

lulz, Nate is losing his sh*t over Trafalgar.

Trafalagar shows Trump with a 2 point lead in PA this morning. They also show Tillis with about a 2 point lead in NC.

Nate needs a decent haircut, a shower and a xanax.

What a loon

He's calling them crazy because of the crosstabs, coupled with the fact they're so out of line with the rest of the polling.

2016 was a completely different race... Hillary's unfavorables were equally as bad as Trump's; and Trump was a political unknown. As the race come down the homestretch the large number of undecideds... something there aren't much of in 2020... started to break for Trump. In 2020, there has been no movement to Trump and Biden's lead has remained consistent. In 2016, states like GA and TX weren't really in play, but in 2020, they're toss ups. In 2016, TX was Trump +9 in the 538 average and GA was Trump +4... in 2020, TX is Trump +1.4% and in GA its Biden +2%.

People holding out hope for a 2016 polling error are going to have to hope for a larger error than in 2016 with a much smaller pool of undecided voters. I just don't see it.

(10-27-2020 11:21 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  He's calling them crazy because of the crosstabs, coupled with the fact they're so out of line with the rest of the polling.

2016 was a completely different race... Hillary's unfavorables were equally as bad as Trump's; and Trump was a political unknown. As the race come down the homestretch the large number of undecideds... something there aren't much of in 2020... started to break for Trump. In 2020, there has been no movement to Trump and Biden's lead has remained consistent. In 2016, states like GA and TX weren't really in play, but in 2020, they're toss ups. In 2016, TX was Trump +9 in the 538 average and GA was Trump +4... in 2020, TX is Trump +1.4% and in GA its Biden +2%.

People holding out hope for a 2016 polling error are going to have to hope for a larger error than in 2016 with a much smaller pool of undecided voters. I just don't see it.

So Nate was wrong in 2016 and Trafalgar was right. They were spot on in 2018. Their polls are never in line with anyone else's but they must be the ones that are wrong not the liberal pollsters.

Makes sense.

(10-27-2020 11:24 AM)gdunn Wrote:  So Nate was wrong in 2016 and Trafalgar was right. They were spot on in 2018. Their polls are never in line with anyone else's but they must be the ones that are wrong not the liberal pollsters.

Makes sense.

Duh - Mensa logic. I mean the guy is a f-kin genius forchrissakes

(10-27-2020 11:21 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  He's calling them crazy because of the crosstabs, coupled with the fact they're so out of line with the rest of the polling.

2016 was a completely different race... Hillary's unfavorables were equally as bad as Trump's; and Trump was a political unknown. As the race come down the homestretch the large number of undecideds... something there aren't much of in 2020... started to break for Trump. In 2020, there has been no movement to Trump and Biden's lead has remained consistent. In 2016, states like GA and TX weren't really in play, but in 2020, they're toss ups. In 2016, TX was Trump +9 in the 538 average and GA was Trump +4... in 2020, TX is Trump +1.4% and in GA its Biden +2%.

People holding out hope for a 2016 polling error are going to have to hope for a larger error than in 2016 with a much smaller pool of undecided voters. I just don't see it.

that's all logical, but i don't see it. i think the American public has lost confidence in the polls and generally don't participate. If you really believe there's been an 8 point swing in TX then ok.. we will see. I do not believe that TX or GA will be close, or Florida or Ohio. the race will be Pa, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Do you REALLY believe that Biden is 8 points up?

(10-27-2020 11:24 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(10-27-2020 11:21 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  He's calling them crazy because of the crosstabs, coupled with the fact they're so out of line with the rest of the polling.

2016 was a completely different race... Hillary's unfavorables were equally as bad as Trump's; and Trump was a political unknown. As the race come down the homestretch the large number of undecideds... something there aren't much of in 2020... started to break for Trump. In 2020, there has been no movement to Trump and Biden's lead has remained consistent. In 2016, states like GA and TX weren't really in play, but in 2020, they're toss ups. In 2016, TX was Trump +9 in the 538 average and GA was Trump +4... in 2020, TX is Trump +1.4% and in GA its Biden +2%.

People holding out hope for a 2016 polling error are going to have to hope for a larger error than in 2016 with a much smaller pool of undecided voters. I just don't see it.

So Nate was wrong in 2016 and Trafalgar was right. They were spot on in 2018. Their polls are never in line with anyone else's but they must be the ones that are wrong not the liberal pollsters.

Makes sense.

Nate was not wrong in 2016. Again, he's not a pollster. He is a statistician and gives odds based on the collection of the polls.
Pollsters were right in the aggregate in 2016 and wrong in the Rust Belt... specifically when sampling white, blue collar, non-college educated people. If you believe they didn't make those adjustments, then so be it.

And just for the record, Trafalgar missed Senate elections...
Arizona in 2018 by 4 points.
Nevada in 2018 by 8 points
Alabama in 2017 by 7 points
Texas in 2018 by 7 points
Montana in 2018 by 5 points

They hit Florida, Missouri and Indiana, but were not exactly "spot-on" in 2018.

(10-27-2020 12:03 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(10-27-2020 11:24 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(10-27-2020 11:21 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  He's calling them crazy because of the crosstabs, coupled with the fact they're so out of line with the rest of the polling.

2016 was a completely different race... Hillary's unfavorables were equally as bad as Trump's; and Trump was a political unknown. As the race come down the homestretch the large number of undecideds... something there aren't much of in 2020... started to break for Trump. In 2020, there has been no movement to Trump and Biden's lead has remained consistent. In 2016, states like GA and TX weren't really in play, but in 2020, they're toss ups. In 2016, TX was Trump +9 in the 538 average and GA was Trump +4... in 2020, TX is Trump +1.4% and in GA its Biden +2%.

People holding out hope for a 2016 polling error are going to have to hope for a larger error than in 2016 with a much smaller pool of undecided voters. I just don't see it.

So Nate was wrong in 2016 and Trafalgar was right. They were spot on in 2018. Their polls are never in line with anyone else's but they must be the ones that are wrong not the liberal pollsters.

Makes sense.

Nate was not wrong in 2016. Again, he's not a pollster. He is a statistician and gives odds based on the collection of the polls.
Pollsters were right in the aggregate in 2016 and wrong in the Rust Belt... specifically when sampling white, blue collar, non-college educated people. If you believe they didn't make those adjustments, then so be it.

And just for the record, Trafalgar missed Senate elections...
Arizona in 2018 by 4 points.
Nevada in 2018 by 8 points
Alabama in 2017 by 7 points
Texas in 2018 by 7 points
Montana in 2018 by 5 points

They hit Florida, Missouri and Indiana, but were not exactly "spot-on" in 2018.

And Nate was way off in 2016. I posted the link.

He's the last one that should be criticizing anyone's polls.

(10-27-2020 12:03 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(10-27-2020 11:24 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(10-27-2020 11:21 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  He's calling them crazy because of the crosstabs, coupled with the fact they're so out of line with the rest of the polling.

2016 was a completely different race... Hillary's unfavorables were equally as bad as Trump's; and Trump was a political unknown. As the race come down the homestretch the large number of undecideds... something there aren't much of in 2020... started to break for Trump. In 2020, there has been no movement to Trump and Biden's lead has remained consistent. In 2016, states like GA and TX weren't really in play, but in 2020, they're toss ups. In 2016, TX was Trump +9 in the 538 average and GA was Trump +4... in 2020, TX is Trump +1.4% and in GA its Biden +2%.

People holding out hope for a 2016 polling error are going to have to hope for a larger error than in 2016 with a much smaller pool of undecided voters. I just don't see it.

So Nate was wrong in 2016 and Trafalgar was right. They were spot on in 2018. Their polls are never in line with anyone else's but they must be the ones that are wrong not the liberal pollsters.

Makes sense.

Nate was not wrong in 2016. Again, he's not a pollster. He is a statistician and gives odds based on the collection of the polls.
Pollsters were right in the aggregate in 2016 and wrong in the Rust Belt... specifically when sampling white, blue collar, non-college educated people. If you believe they didn't make those adjustments, then so be it.

And just for the record, Trafalgar missed Senate elections...
Arizona in 2018 by 4 points.
Nevada in 2018 by 8 points
Alabama in 2017 by 7 points
Texas in 2018 by 7 points
Montana in 2018 by 5 points

They hit Florida, Missouri and Indiana, but were not exactly "spot-on" in 2018.

And Nate was way off in 2016. I posted the link.

He's the last one that should be criticizing anyone's polls.

(10-27-2020 11:34 AM)Oman Wrote:  

(10-27-2020 11:21 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  He's calling them crazy because of the crosstabs, coupled with the fact they're so out of line with the rest of the polling.

2016 was a completely different race... Hillary's unfavorables were equally as bad as Trump's; and Trump was a political unknown. As the race come down the homestretch the large number of undecideds... something there aren't much of in 2020... started to break for Trump. In 2020, there has been no movement to Trump and Biden's lead has remained consistent. In 2016, states like GA and TX weren't really in play, but in 2020, they're toss ups. In 2016, TX was Trump +9 in the 538 average and GA was Trump +4... in 2020, TX is Trump +1.4% and in GA its Biden +2%.

People holding out hope for a 2016 polling error are going to have to hope for a larger error than in 2016 with a much smaller pool of undecided voters. I just don't see it.

that's all logical, but i don't see it. i think the American public has lost confidence in the polls and generally don't participate. If you really believe there's been an 8 point swing in TX then ok.. we will see. I do not believe that TX or GA will be close, or Florida or Ohio. the race will be Pa, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Do you REALLY believe that Biden is 8 points up?

He leads by more than Hillary did at the same point... likely in 5-6 point range. At this point in 2016, Hillary was only up 3.5 points in the national 538 cumulative, and won the national vote by 2% points. Biden is currently up 9.

I think people are more than willing to state their mind and want to be heard, so no, I think they're apt to respond to any pollster willing to give them a forum. And the Trafalgar supposition of a "shy Trump voter" seems a bit at odds with the Trump voters I know, and the ones that dominate my Facebook feed. These voters don't seem the least bit shy. Quite the contrary.

Keep in mind, the 2018 Georgia governors race was only won by the ® by 1.5% points... in a midterm election, which typically favor Republicans. The Texas Senate race was only won by Ted Cruz by 2.6% points. I do think those races will be competitive and Biden will have a shot... which is why he's headed to both this week. Florida is always close... why would 2020 be any different? In 2018, Rick Scott won by 10k votes... Ron DeSantis won by 30k. I think Florida is going to again come down to a handful of votes.