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Rice vs USM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #1
Exclamation Rice vs USM
Y’all probably know by now how I feel about ESPN predictions, but for consistency ....

ESPN has the Owls with only a 49.1% chance of winning, but has USM as only a 3 point favorite. The Owls stats, limited obviously, are actually a little better than the 1-4 Golden Eagles.

This ESPN prediction actually makes some sense as opposed the last week’s 90+% chance of winning based on no current season stats.
10-26-2020 07:58 PM
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Ourland Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Rice vs USM
USM 38, Rice 31. They're at home, and they've played five games.
10-26-2020 11:14 PM
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gsloth Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Rice vs USM
USM is now moving on to their third head coach on the season, as the recent interim steps down to take the Austin Peay job. (Austin Peay is playing in the spring.)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...er-report/
10-27-2020 11:33 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Rice vs USM
So we're a slight dog to a 1-4 team that is now on its 3rd head coach just this season?

We'd better be ready to score. I expect them to throw the ball around. When the guy was OC, he had a team AVERAGE 600 ypg and 50 points.
(This post was last modified: 10-27-2020 02:33 PM by Hambone10.)
10-27-2020 02:32 PM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Rice vs USM
ESPN spread is down to 1.5 points, but Owls win probability is still 49.1%. I guess ESPN thinks it doesn't matter who is coaching against the Owls.
10-27-2020 02:56 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Rice vs USM
(10-27-2020 02:32 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  So we're a slight dog to a 1-4 team that is now on its 3rd head coach just this season?

Are we up to our 1st?
10-27-2020 06:53 PM
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Grungy Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Rice vs USM
(10-27-2020 02:32 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  So we're a slight dog to a 1-4 team that is now on its 3rd head coach just this season?

We'd better be ready to score. I expect them to throw the ball around. When the guy was OC, he had a team AVERAGE 600 ypg and 50 points.

Given the demonstrated problems in our secondary the past few years (last year we started to turn that around, but they transferred out, IIRC), I'm surprised that our opponents ever run the ball. I'm demonstrating my deep and abiding lack of knowledge about Xs and Os, but the only drawback I could see in that is their receivers would be really winded.

Putting us in an eternal state of "prevent defense" (which rarely works for anyone with less than stellar defense) seems to me to be something our opponents would happily take advantage of.
10-27-2020 07:55 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Rice vs USM
(10-27-2020 07:55 PM)Grungy Wrote:  Given the demonstrated problems in our secondary the past few years (last year we started to turn that around, but they transferred out, IIRC), I'm surprised that our opponents ever run the ball. I'm demonstrating my deep and abiding lack of knowledge about Xs and Os, but the only drawback I could see in that is their receivers would be really winded.

I'm guessing they go 2 or 3 deep at receiver so they can rest them. If you can't stop the deep ball, then you can't stop anything.

Quote:Putting us in an eternal state of "prevent defense" (which rarely works for anyone with less than stellar defense) seems to me to be something our opponents would happily take advantage of.

Prevent defense is the best way to turn a stellar defense into an ordinary one, or worse. It's not designed to stop anyone. It's designed to slow them down enough that they can't catch you. With a 14 point lead with under 2 minutes left, maybe it makes sense. But less than that, not often.
10-27-2020 08:13 PM
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Grungy Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Rice vs USM
(10-27-2020 08:13 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(10-27-2020 07:55 PM)Grungy Wrote:  Given the demonstrated problems in our secondary the past few years (last year we started to turn that around, but they transferred out, IIRC), I'm surprised that our opponents ever run the ball. I'm demonstrating my deep and abiding lack of knowledge about Xs and Os, but the only drawback I could see in that is their receivers would be really winded.

I'm guessing they go 2 or 3 deep at receiver so they can rest them. If you can't stop the deep ball, then you can't stop anything.

We must have stopped some of the deep balls, because MT didn't score 8 TDs, but I saw too many plays were our DB was within PI range of the receiver, and didn't appear to do anything but be within PI range.
10-27-2020 08:20 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Rice vs USM
(10-27-2020 08:20 PM)Grungy Wrote:  We must have stopped some of the deep balls, because MT didn't score 8 TDs, but I saw too many plays were our DB was within PI range of the receiver, and didn't appear to do anything but be within PI range.

We've done that for years. Irks me to no end, but we just don't go for the ball nearly as often as we should, IMO. Yes, you guess wrong a few times and give up some big plays. But we are already giving up big plays as it is. Take some chances and force some turnovers.
10-27-2020 08:41 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Rice vs USM
Hurricane Zeta (it might be a tropical storm by now) is basically over Hattiesburg right now. It's a pretty fast moving storm but it was also quite a bit stronger than predicted when it made landfall earlier today near New Orleans. Hopefully the storm won't cause any damage that will create any issues in that part of Mississippi.

What a strange 2020. Hurricanes still in the Gulf while we're getting fairly robust cold fronts not that far away. And I'm heading off to Lubbock for a day tomorrow and might see a bit of snow or ice on the ground.
10-28-2020 08:36 PM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Rice vs USM
ESPN, the sports authority that gave the Owls a 90+% chance of winning last week, now has the Owls in the No. 2 spot in their Bottom 10 ranking. USM holds down the No.3 spot. Should be a real barnburner on Saturday. I wonder GameDay will host from Hattiesburg?
10-29-2020 02:02 PM
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Tiki Owl Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Rice vs USM
(10-29-2020 02:02 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  ESPN, the sports authority that gave the Owls a 90+% chance of winning last week, now has the Owls in the No. 2 spot in their Bottom 10 ranking. USM holds down the No.3 spot. Should be a real barnburner on Saturday. I wonder GameDay will host from Hattiesburg?

ESPN is sending their B-List GameDay crew to preview this Bottom 10 matchup.

[Image: Gpme5e.jpg]
10-29-2020 03:31 PM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Rice vs USM
(10-29-2020 03:31 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  
(10-29-2020 02:02 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  ESPN, the sports authority that gave the Owls a 90+% chance of winning last week, now has the Owls in the No. 2 spot in their Bottom 10 ranking. USM holds down the No.3 spot. Should be a real barnburner on Saturday. I wonder GameDay will host from Hattiesburg?

ESPN is sending their B-List GameDay crew to preview this Bottom 10 matchup.

[Image: Gpme5e.jpg]

04-clap2 04-clap2 04-clap2
10-29-2020 04:47 PM
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wiessguy Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Rice vs USM
Hattiesburg is closer for Corso to travel to
10-29-2020 11:20 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Rice vs USM
(10-29-2020 03:31 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  
(10-29-2020 02:02 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  ESPN, the sports authority that gave the Owls a 90+% chance of winning last week, now has the Owls in the No. 2 spot in their Bottom 10 ranking. USM holds down the No.3 spot. Should be a real barnburner on Saturday. I wonder GameDay will host from Hattiesburg?

ESPN is sending their B-List GameDay crew to preview this Bottom 10 matchup.

[Image: Gpme5e.jpg]

Looks like the A-list to me.
10-30-2020 10:49 AM
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Ricefootballnet Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Rice vs USM
So headed towards Hattiesburg Friday morning, and spending the night in New Orleans both Friday and Saturday, with a Saturday day trip up to Hattiesburg. Still lots of hurricane damage around Lake Charles. Lafayette appears relatively unscathed. We took old Highway 90 down through the oil patch service industry area, Morgan City and on into New Orleans.Some downed power lines around Raceland, and the traffic lights were out of service along Poydras Street and Convention Center Boulevard. But the Quarter was in full blast with Halloween weekend revelers. Surprising how many people were out and about without masks. A great meal at Galatoire’s, and we’re headed in to Hattiesburg in the morning. Bluebird weather tomorrow. Great weekend for..outdoor...football.
10-30-2020 10:02 PM
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Tomball Owl Offline
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RE: Rice vs USM
GameDay still running the quadruple doink. sigh!
10-31-2020 09:45 AM
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cr11owl Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Rice vs USM
We’re back to giving receivers 5 yards of separation.
10-31-2020 02:09 PM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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RE: Rice vs USM
Predictable start on offense. Two running plays, a bad third down throw and a special teams penalty.
10-31-2020 02:16 PM
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