The long term impact of the COVID-19 virus is beginning to be understood. Playing sports can be done safely, but some forms of social distancing are going to be with us for a long time. Folks that are more vulnerable to the virus (e.g., elderly, individuals with certain underlying health conditions, etc.) need to be protected. Without all the fun social interactions, big revenue sports are going to take financial hits due to less fans. It’s likely going to be a while before 100,000 fans attend a live event, or College Game Day and tailgating return to normal. TV ratings are taking massive hits. The synergies of bowl games at warm travel vacation sites are going to be difficult to justify.

Big media companies (e.g., ESPN, Fox, etc.) are going to lose some value in their sports rights. I wonder whether media companies will start seeking concessions from conferences. Maybe conferences will need to offer more or better programming to help during an extended period. Maybe the SEC will need to move to 9 conference games and the BIG to 10 conference games during the next several years.

(10-25-2020 06:03 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  The long term impact of the COVID-19 virus is beginning to be understood. Playing sports can be done safely, but some forms of social distancing are going to be with us for a long time. Folks that are more vulnerable to the virus (e.g., elderly, individuals with certain underlying health conditions, etc.) need to be protected. Without all the fun social interactions, big revenue sports are going to take financial hits due to less fans. It’s likely going to be a while before 100,000 fans attend a live event, or College Game Day and tailgating return to normal. TV ratings are taking massive hits. The synergies of bowl games at warm travel vacation sites are going to be difficult to justify.

Big media companies (e.g., ESPN, Fox, etc.) are going to lose some value in their sports rights. I wonder whether media companies will start seeking concessions from conferences. Maybe conferences will need to offer more or better programming to help during an extended period. Maybe the SEC will need to move to 9 conference games and the BIG to 10 conference games during the next several years.

The main impact for the Power teams isn't a possible (likely) reduction in media payouts, it is the loss of revenue from fans at home games. Those are worth several million a game, but no or few fans means dramatic losses in revenue.

Ironically, it is the teams with schleppy attendance that will be hurt the least if we continue massively disrupting all of society to protect 75+ year olds from the virus. I don't think the country can survive if we continue the lockdowns and extreme social distancing of the current regime.

(10-25-2020 07:00 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-25-2020 06:03 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  The long term impact of the COVID-19 virus is beginning to be understood. Playing sports can be done safely, but some forms of social distancing are going to be with us for a long time. Folks that are more vulnerable to the virus (e.g., elderly, individuals with certain underlying health conditions, etc.) need to be protected. Without all the fun social interactions, big revenue sports are going to take financial hits due to less fans. It’s likely going to be a while before 100,000 fans attend a live event, or College Game Day and tailgating return to normal. TV ratings are taking massive hits. The synergies of bowl games at warm travel vacation sites are going to be difficult to justify.

Big media companies (e.g., ESPN, Fox, etc.) are going to lose some value in their sports rights. I wonder whether media companies will start seeking concessions from conferences. Maybe conferences will need to offer more or better programming to help during an extended period. Maybe the SEC will need to move to 9 conference games and the BIG to 10 conference games during the next several years.

The main impact for the Power teams isn't a possible (likely) reduction in media payouts, it is the loss of revenue from fans at home games. Those are worth several million a game, but no or few fans means dramatic losses in revenue.

Ironically, it is the teams with schleppy attendance that will be hurt the least if we continue massively disrupting all of society to protect 75+ year olds from the virus. I don't think the country can survive if we continue the lockdowns and extreme social distancing of the current regime.

A few points if I may.

SEC teams will lose 85 percent of 6.5 million which is what the average home game is worth in tickets per game. Donations for tickets per game take that up even more. Add the cost of tailgating slots, parking passes, & concessions and merchandise sales and I'd say they stand to lose easily north of 10 million per game.
When we play FCS or G5 ticket prices drop accordingly as does attendance and concessions. So more P5 is coming but that is going to really hurt FCS and G5 programs who need a 1.5 to 3 million dollar payday.

TV revenue will likely stay up as it is at least something live to watch and if conferences schedule more in conference with a premier OOC game the networks are getting their money's worth.

As we speak the SEC tickets this year are 50% higher than the average 75 dollars per ticket. Most are 125 or higher in an effort to make up some the loss and due to demand vs supply.

So most of the P5 will feel attendance reduction losses. We adjust down for a while.

Athletic department revenues from ticket sales and game day activities are being directly and immediately impacted. Which means that the conference payouts become even more important for the funding at each university.

The challenge is that conference payouts are dependent on ESPN being able grow viewership and bowls being able to attract more travelers. New Years Day holiday travel celebrations, combined with a popular Pasadena Parade in the southern California sunshine and the Rose Bowl game...these are the most idyllic excuses to spend discretionary income with family and friends. But in the era of COVID, casual football fans are much less interested because their passion is the social interaction rather than the competition. My wife always asks whose playing today, not because she cares about the game...but because she wants better social interaction.

Media companies and the bowls bear the initial financial risk from COVID’s impact of less discretionary spend on sports. Viewership is going down and it’s not just because of the political and social tensions. Subscriptions drive ratings which enhances advertising...a simple paradigm that is currently in reverse gear. Similarly, bowls and the NCAA tournament are probably feeling a lot of heat about finances during the next several years.

For this year, conferences still have the upper hand because they have contracts that stipulate payouts. But the social distancing aspect of COVID is not a short term consequence. If I’m Fox or ESPN, I’m already pressing conferences to help stabilize their partnerships with better match-ups, more conference games, reliability in playing games and more flexible schedules. Conferences that are more flexible can benefit, but other conferences (with longer or less favorable terms) could be better-off with a different strategy.