It really is a pretty limited group with a shot now, barring a LOT of upsets in the last 4 weeks (seems strange that Thanksgiving weekend isn't the last week before the ccgs).

SEC-Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M
ACC-Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami
Big 10-Ohio St., Northwestern
Pac 12-USC, Washington, Oregon

And the Pac 12 schools have almost no chance if they don't go unbeaten.

(11-22-2020 12:46 PM)bullet Wrote:  It really is a pretty limited group with a shot now, barring a LOT of upsets in the last 4 weeks (seems strange that Thanksgiving weekend isn't the last week before the ccgs).

SEC-Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M
ACC-Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami
Big 10-Ohio St., Northwestern
Pac 12-USC, Washington, Oregon

And the Pac 12 schools have almost no chance if they don't go unbeaten.

True, but as long as Oregon and USC keep winning - and they don't play each other in the regular season - the winner of their CCG game would get strong consideration, and likely get in over once-beaten P5 teams that do not win their conferences.

(11-22-2020 12:16 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-22-2020 11:51 AM)esayem Wrote:  Texas A&M and Miami need to play in the Severely Overrated Bowl.

Bulletin board material on December 12th?

I absolutely cannot wait for that game when the Heels hang fifty on those bums.*

*Bum is a relative term. Obviously they aren’t untalented.

(11-22-2020 12:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I think some regulation is required here that would mandate a coach cannot abandon a team before the final game of that season is played for that team which includes bowls. I think it displays a lack of commitment which is a poor leadership trait. You’re already going to leave. But, given the current climate on this topic, so what is best for you and your family.

I agree that it is much fairer if coaches could not do this, but as a matter of policy the NCAA cannot have such a rule. It would be a restraint of trade violation.

The only thing that can happen is for schools to write such terms in to the contracts of coaches. But even then they could not out-right prevent it, only punish it. E.g., the contract could say that if coach leaves before the bowl game, he owes the university an extra buyout amount. But the coach could still leave anyway if he wanted to. You can't prevent a coach from leaving job A for job B when he wants, any more than Burger King can tell a kid he can't quit tomorrow and join McDonalds if he wants.

(11-22-2020 07:21 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Cincy at 20%
BYU at 13%
with no one in the Top 8 losing the margins thinned considerably.

With the CFP in, ESPN's numbers have changed:

100% Alabama/Florida
100% Notre Dame
100% Ohio State/Northwestern
74% USC
73% Oregon
71% Alabama (w/LOSS)
61% Cincinnati
52% Clemson
44% Notre Dame (w/LOSS)
40% Texas A&M
22% Miami
21% Indiana
20% Wisconsin
17% Washington
15% BYU
4% Northwestern (w/LOSS)
3% Ohio State (w/LOSS)
2% Florida (w/LOSS)
2% Oklahoma
<1% Georgia

It looks like the Big Ten's chances hinge on going undefeated. In reality, a 1-loss OSU champ is going to get more than a 3% look at making the playoff. Clemson is also given an astonishingly low 52% playoff chance if they win out.

I agree with the assessment in another thread that Cincy likely sits behind any 1-loss SEC/ACC team, so rooting for Alabama and Notre Dame (at least in their CCGs) makes sense.

Not sure I buy an undefeated Pac-12 team as the most likely #4 team, but that may just be because I've seen so little of their play.

BYU looks buried without a P5 game. Even if they were to blowout Utah, I'm not sure it would help much. The key, too, is getting a game that final week.

(11-17-2020 11:10 AM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(11-17-2020 10:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-17-2020 09:19 AM)Arch Stanton Wrote:  

(11-16-2020 02:29 PM)esayem Wrote:  Sell both at this point.

With luck, they'll meet in the Cotton or Peach Bowl.

That would be the worst like when Boise and TCU met in the Fiesta. Let them play a Power team.

Personally, I loved the 2009 FB between TCU and Boise, and it was a tense and entertaining game vs the #4 and #6 teams in the country.

If Cincy and BYU run the table, I'd certainly tune in for a matchup between those two as well.

It wasn't really an issue with the quality of TCU and Boise, it was the issue that the Auto-bid schools got to dodge both programs while they were placed in the "separate but equal" bowl. Many fans wanted to see Boise and TCU slugging it out with a premiere team. For Boise and TCU fans specifically, the whole point of making a BCS bowl is to finally play an elite caliber team that you wouldn't normally get the chance to play because they aren't going to be scheduling you in the non-conference. It was a chance to prove respectability for your program against a traditional power, but both teams were denied that opportunity.

THIS^^^^

(11-17-2020 09:47 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(11-17-2020 09:19 AM)Arch Stanton Wrote:  

(11-16-2020 02:29 PM)esayem Wrote:  Sell both at this point.

With luck, they'll meet in the Cotton or Peach Bowl.

That would be the worst like when Boise and TCU met in the Fiesta. Let them play a Power team.

I don’t disagree, I’m just saying that’s probably what will happen if they both go undefeated.

I think UCF did that this year (UNC Cough,cough).

(11-18-2020 05:31 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  If we ever (not likely to happen) totally commit to the ACC I hope and believe Cincy is a logical choice for 16.

Is this what this agreement is all about? ESPiN would have almost all the marbles at this point.

(11-18-2020 04:27 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(11-18-2020 02:23 PM)Arch Stanton Wrote:  

(11-18-2020 11:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2020 08:41 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-17-2020 08:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I understand why a Cincy fan would be upset, but I'm not sure how Kelly could have handled it any differently, given that Notre Dame wanted him to be there immediately. And we all would have taken the ND job and would have started immediately if they insisted, so it's IMO a non-starter to say he should have stayed.

Him leaving the bowl like he did is a major sore spot for UC fans. As the poster mentioned, we were left with a skeleton coaching staff made up of grad assistants and in some cases player's dad to face off against Florida's staff Urban Meyer, DC Charlie Strong, and OC Steve Addazio. To this this day, this game is thrown in UC's face by people with an agenda that this bowl loss should preclude us from ever playing in a meaningful bowl game again.

FWIW, if a program went in to a bowl game even more demoralized than Cincy that year, it was Florida, as they were going through that bizarro situation with Urban Meyer being hospitalized after losing the SEC CCG, then resigning, then sort of saying he was coming back but not quite, etc. It was a really weird situation. The whole Florida program was discombobulated.

Truth is, Cincy was just no match athletically for Florida. Florida had 10 draft picks that year, most of any team, including 3 first rounders and 3 second rounders. They were a fully loaded Urban Meyer death star, probably the best team in the 16 years of the BCS not to play in the BCS title game. Cincy had 3 draft picks, none before the 4th round. The only teams that were better than them were Alabama and arguably Texas, and probably not Texas. The SEC CCG that year was between the two best teams in the country. TCU and Boise wouldn't have fared any better against them.

Urban Meyer had a medical condition. Kelly packed his bags and left his team high and dry after probably preaching to them all season about teamwork, accountability, loyalty blah blah blah

As A ND fan Kelly leaving Cincy the way he left a bad taste in mouth.

What was he supposed to do?

“Ah, no thanks Notre Dame. We’re going to do this MY way. Because after all, I just took lowly Cincinnati to a big time bowl!”

Come back to reality, friend. The Notre Dame job is one of the best of all time and he would have been foolish to try and stick around.

Mack Brown left Carolina for Texas, and the Heels still won the bowl game. People need to stop crying because their team got smoked on the national stage.

"Urban Meyer had a medical condition." Sure. That was the reason. I am not a UF fan, by the way.

(11-19-2020 08:33 PM)Arch Stanton Wrote:  

(11-19-2020 03:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-19-2020 12:47 PM)Arch Stanton Wrote:  

(11-19-2020 12:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-19-2020 11:58 AM)Arch Stanton Wrote:  We do not know what was discussed but observing Kelly over the years I doubt he pushed hard if at all to coach Cincy in the bowl game. I would like to think ND would have admired Kelly's request to finish the season with Cincy but again I was not privy to the conversations. They could have announced Kelly as the new hire like Nebraska did with Frost so that Kelly could start recruiting for ND but coach Cincy for the bowl game.

Sure, Notre Dame could have allowed Kelly to coach Cincy in the bowl game. But they had no obligation to, and it is understandable that they would want him to jump in to recruiting right away. But Kelly couldn't control that, and if the Irish insisted that he come now, there's no way anyone should have expected him to refuse.

Nobody expected him to refuse if ND gave him the ultimatum to come now or forget the job because almost always coaches look out only for themselves but of course he could have refused the offer.

Replace "coaches" with "just about everyone". We all look out for ourselves.

Sure, Kelly could have refused the offer in the face of an ultimatum. But IMO, if ND told Kelly he had to start right now, without coaching the Cincy bowl game, or else they would move on to another candidate, it would be preposterous for anyone to expect him to pass on that kind of job in order to coach Cincy in the bowl game. That would be a ridonculous expectation.

Kelly was the leader of Cincy football. I guess it is ridiculous that I would expect him to stay at Cincy and coach the bowl but I have a high standards for people especially leaders so yes I think he should have stayed.

I'm good on this subject I think we should agree to disagree

"Kelly was the leader of Cincy football. I guess it is ridiculous that I would expect him to stay at Cincy and coach the bowl but I have a high standards".
You mean like Fickell. I have so much respect for Fickell, but that could change after this year (Michigan).

(11-22-2020 11:40 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  I hope Cincy doesn't make the playoff. If they do, they are going to get curbstomped and that will be used as evidence against the G5 ever making it again in perpetuity. UCF is bad, and we should have won last night. This Cincy team has no business playing Alabama. This is the same offense that got shut out by Ohio State last year. Alabama will hold them under 250 yards and 0 points. For all the good work Fickell has done building a strong defense that can go toe to toe with good P5 teams, the offense is not improved at all from last year.

What? UC is going to get curbstomped? This matters what. Making the playoffs is all that matters. It may not happen, but your point UC does not belong on the same field with Alabama, who does? Alabama will likely win the CFB playoff. .

(11-19-2020 03:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-19-2020 02:01 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There really needs to be an industry standard regarding coaches in the NCAA staying with their existing job through the end of the season rather than quoting early to take a new job

You can't have an industry standard, as that would be a restraint of trade. But clauses that disincentivize leaving early could be written in to individual contracts, e.g., a contract could say that if the coach leaves before the conclusion of the bowl season, then he owes the university "X" amount of money, etc.

That's about the most that can be done. People do have the right to quit one job and take another, and when they want to not necessarily when it's most convenient for the employer.

And that is what would happen, considering Maryland leaving with a GOR. It may not the same argument, but would end up the same result. If you are a college, how far would it be worth fighting a coach leaving.

(11-28-2020 09:51 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-17-2020 09:47 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(11-17-2020 09:19 AM)Arch Stanton Wrote:  

(11-16-2020 02:29 PM)esayem Wrote:  Sell both at this point.

With luck, they'll meet in the Cotton or Peach Bowl.

That would be the worst like when Boise and TCU met in the Fiesta. Let them play a Power team.

I don’t disagree, I’m just saying that’s probably what will happen if they both go undefeated.

I think UCF did that this year (UNC Cough,cough).

You think UCF did what this year? Blow their game against Cincinnati?

(11-28-2020 10:02 PM)sierrajip Wrote:  

(11-18-2020 04:27 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(11-18-2020 02:23 PM)Arch Stanton Wrote:  

(11-18-2020 11:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2020 08:41 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Him leaving the bowl like he did is a major sore spot for UC fans. As the poster mentioned, we were left with a skeleton coaching staff made up of grad assistants and in some cases player's dad to face off against Florida's staff Urban Meyer, DC Charlie Strong, and OC Steve Addazio. To this this day, this game is thrown in UC's face by people with an agenda that this bowl loss should preclude us from ever playing in a meaningful bowl game again.

FWIW, if a program went in to a bowl game even more demoralized than Cincy that year, it was Florida, as they were going through that bizarro situation with Urban Meyer being hospitalized after losing the SEC CCG, then resigning, then sort of saying he was coming back but not quite, etc. It was a really weird situation. The whole Florida program was discombobulated.

Truth is, Cincy was just no match athletically for Florida. Florida had 10 draft picks that year, most of any team, including 3 first rounders and 3 second rounders. They were a fully loaded Urban Meyer death star, probably the best team in the 16 years of the BCS not to play in the BCS title game. Cincy had 3 draft picks, none before the 4th round. The only teams that were better than them were Alabama and arguably Texas, and probably not Texas. The SEC CCG that year was between the two best teams in the country. TCU and Boise wouldn't have fared any better against them.

Urban Meyer had a medical condition. Kelly packed his bags and left his team high and dry after probably preaching to them all season about teamwork, accountability, loyalty blah blah blah

As A ND fan Kelly leaving Cincy the way he left a bad taste in mouth.

What was he supposed to do?

“Ah, no thanks Notre Dame. We’re going to do this MY way. Because after all, I just took lowly Cincinnati to a big time bowl!”

Come back to reality, friend. The Notre Dame job is one of the best of all time and he would have been foolish to try and stick around.

Mack Brown left Carolina for Texas, and the Heels still won the bowl game. People need to stop crying because their team got smoked on the national stage.

"Urban Meyer had a medical condition." Sure. That was the reason. I am not a UF fan, by the way.

Quoting me again, I see. I didn’t say anything about Pope Urban. I’m not even sure how to respond. Sleep well, my son.

Odds if team wins out (roughly):
100% Alabama / Florida
100% Notre Dame
100% Northwestern
97% Ohio State
82% Clemson
79% Alabama (w/LOSS)
59% Notre Dame (w/LOSS)
57% Cincinnati
47% USC
41% Texas A&M
26% BYU
19% Indiana
15% Washington
11% Wisconsin
<3% all others

With Oregon's loss, Cincinnati jumps the Pac-12 champ. However, the Bearcats are still at #6, as they are leaped by the potential of 2 ACC teams. Clemson also makes strides, moving from the tie at #6 to #4. Northwestern is somehow still more likely to make the playoff than win out.

BYU is climbing over the 1-loss Big Ten and Pac-12 teams thanks to more cancellations, but still sits behind #7 USC and #8 Texas A&M. Adding a game against a P5 opponent would help; given last week's CFP ranking, it may be necessary just to crack the Top 10.

(11-29-2020 01:33 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Odds if team wins out (roughly):
100% Alabama / Florida
100% Notre Dame
100% Northwestern
97% Ohio State
82% Clemson
79% Alabama (w/LOSS)
59% Notre Dame (w/LOSS)
57% Cincinnati
47% USC
41% Texas A&M
26% BYU
19% Indiana
15% Washington
11% Wisconsin
<3% all others

With Oregon's loss, Cincinnati jumps the Pac-12 champ. However, the Bearcats are still at #6, as they are leaped by the potential of 2 ACC teams. Clemson also makes strides, moving from the tie at #6 to #4. Northwestern is somehow still more likely to make the playoff than win out.

BYU is climbing over the 1-loss Big Ten and Pac-12 teams thanks to more cancellations, but still sits behind #7 USC and #8 Texas A&M. Adding a game against a P5 opponent would help; given last week's CFP ranking, it may be necessary just to crack the Top 10.

I don't think the ESPN computer takes into account the possibility that Northwestern could win the Big Ten because Ohio State is ineligible for the Big Ten championship and the Buckeyes are just one canceled game away from doing so. I highly doubt if Ohio State wins out without a Big Ten Championship and Northwestern wins the Big Ten Championship Game but has a loss that Northwestern gets in. Even if Northwestern beats Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, I still don't see it as a done deal. They would have beaten a terrific Ohio State team but would have lost to a lousy Michigan State team. They are currently #8 in the CFP rankings and will certainly drop out of the Top 10 with this loss. That's a big climb to get back up to the top 4. Even if Notre Dame loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, their win is almost as good as Northwestern's and their loss is a whole lot better. Assuming Texas A&M wins out, Texas A&M's loss is way better and beating Florida isn't the caliber of Ohio State but it's still a Top 10 win and they would have beaten Auburn at Auburn. I'm not saying it's impossible for Northwestern to make the Playoff but I'm not seeing 100%.

(11-29-2020 07:23 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-29-2020 01:33 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Odds if team wins out (roughly):
100% Alabama / Florida
100% Notre Dame
100% Northwestern
97% Ohio State
82% Clemson
79% Alabama (w/LOSS)
59% Notre Dame (w/LOSS)
57% Cincinnati
47% USC
41% Texas A&M
26% BYU
19% Indiana
15% Washington
11% Wisconsin
<3% all others

With Oregon's loss, Cincinnati jumps the Pac-12 champ. However, the Bearcats are still at #6, as they are leaped by the potential of 2 ACC teams. Clemson also makes strides, moving from the tie at #6 to #4. Northwestern is somehow still more likely to make the playoff than win out.

BYU is climbing over the 1-loss Big Ten and Pac-12 teams thanks to more cancellations, but still sits behind #7 USC and #8 Texas A&M. Adding a game against a P5 opponent would help; given last week's CFP ranking, it may be necessary just to crack the Top 10.

I don't think the ESPN computer takes into account the possibility that Northwestern could win the Big Ten because Ohio State is ineligible for the Big Ten championship and the Buckeyes are just one canceled game away from doing so. I highly doubt if Ohio State wins out without a Big Ten Championship and Northwestern wins the Big Ten Championship Game but has a loss that Northwestern gets in. Even if Northwestern beats Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, I still don't see it as a done deal. They would have beaten a terrific Ohio State team but would have lost to a lousy Michigan State team. They are currently #8 in the CFP rankings and will certainly drop out of the Top 10 with this loss. That's a big climb to get back up to the top 4. Even if Notre Dame loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, their win is almost as good as Northwestern's and their loss is a whole lot better. Assuming Texas A&M wins out, Texas A&M's loss is way better and beating Florida isn't the caliber of Ohio State but it's still a Top 10 win and they would have beaten Auburn at Auburn. I'm not saying it's impossible for Northwestern to make the Playoff but I'm not seeing 100%.

OSU still has MSU and Michigan. That gives them 6. And there is a mechanism to lower that if the average # of games played falls below 6 for Big teams. As of now 6 of the 14 teams have played 6 total, 2 teams have played 4, 1 team has played 3, and the remaining 4 have played 5 games. As it stands now Big Teams have played an average of 4.785 games.

(11-29-2020 08:47 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-29-2020 07:23 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-29-2020 01:33 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Odds if team wins out (roughly):
100% Alabama / Florida
100% Notre Dame
100% Northwestern
97% Ohio State
82% Clemson
79% Alabama (w/LOSS)
59% Notre Dame (w/LOSS)
57% Cincinnati
47% USC
41% Texas A&M
26% BYU
19% Indiana
15% Washington
11% Wisconsin
<3% all others

With Oregon's loss, Cincinnati jumps the Pac-12 champ. However, the Bearcats are still at #6, as they are leaped by the potential of 2 ACC teams. Clemson also makes strides, moving from the tie at #6 to #4. Northwestern is somehow still more likely to make the playoff than win out.

BYU is climbing over the 1-loss Big Ten and Pac-12 teams thanks to more cancellations, but still sits behind #7 USC and #8 Texas A&M. Adding a game against a P5 opponent would help; given last week's CFP ranking, it may be necessary just to crack the Top 10.

I don't think the ESPN computer takes into account the possibility that Northwestern could win the Big Ten because Ohio State is ineligible for the Big Ten championship and the Buckeyes are just one canceled game away from doing so. I highly doubt if Ohio State wins out without a Big Ten Championship and Northwestern wins the Big Ten Championship Game but has a loss that Northwestern gets in. Even if Northwestern beats Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, I still don't see it as a done deal. They would have beaten a terrific Ohio State team but would have lost to a lousy Michigan State team. They are currently #8 in the CFP rankings and will certainly drop out of the Top 10 with this loss. That's a big climb to get back up to the top 4. Even if Notre Dame loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, their win is almost as good as Northwestern's and their loss is a whole lot better. Assuming Texas A&M wins out, Texas A&M's loss is way better and beating Florida isn't the caliber of Ohio State but it's still a Top 10 win and they would have beaten Auburn at Auburn. I'm not saying it's impossible for Northwestern to make the Playoff but I'm not seeing 100%.

OSU still has MSU and Michigan. That gives them 6. And there is a mechanism to lower that if the average # of games played falls below 6 for Big teams. As of now 6 of the 14 teams have played 6 total, 2 teams have played 4, 1 team has played 3, and the remaining 4 have played 5 games. As it stands now Big Teams have played an average of 4.785 games.

Northwestern lost yesterday. If they win out their chances are still pretty low.

Ya, I guess Northwestern at 100% assumes they beat Ohio State. Still not sure it should be that high.

(11-29-2020 11:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Ya, I guess Northwestern at 100% assumes they beat Ohio State. Still not sure it should be that high.

Not impressed with Northwestern at all. They don’t have the dudes on offense to hang with Ohio State.