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Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
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Arch Stanton Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-03-2020 11:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 11:33 AM)YNot Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 10:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 12:42 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  BYU 84 NC
#2 Oklahoma 9-1-1 lost in Orange bowl to #4 Washington
#3 Florida 9-1-1 was on probation
#4 Washington 10-1 did not win Pac-10 and turned the Holiday bowl down
You can't duck BYU and then claim NC
#7 So Carolina 10-1 lost Gator bowl
I could never figure out why SoCar didn't try for Holiday bowl
Everybody else had 2 loses before bowl games

How can you not give it to BYU

BYU winning the title in 84 wasn't that controversial, and there was a matter-of-fact view of it that pretty much comports with your account, save for the comment about Washington - nobody thought they were ducking BYU, Washington chose to play in the Orange Bowl because everyone in the world would have picked the Orange Bowl over the Holiday Bowl. No comparison there. You have to remember that before the bowls, Washington was ranked #4, so it's not like by not playing BYU they were passing on a #1 vs #2 matchup that would have been the de facto national title game.

But 1984 was just one of those strange years, like 1990 and 2007, when the usual top elites all lost multiple games, so it created an opening.

Nobody, not even the pollsters, really thought BYU was the best team. They played a very soft schedule and barely schlepped past a 6-6 Michigan team in their bowl game. BYU would have been a significant underdog vs Washington or Florida, an underdog against probably a few more teams in the top 10.

But in the end, they were basically the last man standing so the vote made sense.

It's not directly relevant to the 1984 BYU-Washington "controversy," but I note that BYU beat Washington 31-3 the following September 1985.

Yes, but Washington finished a 7-5 team in 1985, so not really impressive.

One other thing that helped BYU in 1984 was they had become like Boise was in the early 2000s, a team that was really rising in stature. BYU had won 11 games in 1979, 1980 and 1981 (finishing in the final AP top 12 all three years) and 1983. They had finished #7 in the final 1983 AP poll after winning their last 11 games, so the pollsters were already primed to vote for them. They were not a "Cinderella" in the sense we would regard now.

I can see why Washington went to the Orange Bowl instead of the Holiday Bowl since if they beat BYU and Oklahoma won they would still not be National Champs and the orange Bowl was much more prestigious.

I always wondered why BYU didn't play in the Orange Bowl. I know they were contractually obligated to play in the Holiday Bowl but I always got the impression that BYU didn't try very hard to get out of the Holiday Bowl.
11-05-2020 02:52 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-05-2020 02:52 PM)Arch Stanton Wrote:  I always wondered why BYU didn't play in the Orange Bowl. I know they were contractually obligated to play in the Holiday Bowl but I always got the impression that BYU didn't try very hard to get out of the Holiday Bowl.

I think it was because of the contractual obligation - the WAC champ was bound to go to the Holiday Bowl at that time, there was just no wiggle room about that.
11-05-2020 03:14 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
I always wondered why the Fiesta or Citrus didn't shoot for the "National Championship" like they did a few years later.

Surely, BYU could have escaped San Diego.
11-05-2020 04:43 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-05-2020 04:43 PM)esayem Wrote:  I always wondered why the Fiesta or Citrus didn't shoot for the "National Championship" like they did a few years later.

Surely, BYU could have escaped San Diego.

Wouldn't have helped BYU, because they had a conference tie-in. The Fiesta was able to create 1 vs 2 national title games in 86 and 88 because all of the teams they matched were independents

Believe it or not, a conference team could no more slough off a conference bowl contract any more in 1984 than they could today.

07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2020 07:25 PM by quo vadis.)
11-05-2020 07:23 PM
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Arch Stanton Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-05-2020 07:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-05-2020 04:43 PM)esayem Wrote:  I always wondered why the Fiesta or Citrus didn't shoot for the "National Championship" like they did a few years later.

Surely, BYU could have escaped San Diego.

Wouldn't have helped BYU, because they had a conference tie-in. The Fiesta was able to create 1 vs 2 national title games in 86 and 88 because all of the teams they matched were independents

Believe it or not, a conference team could no more slough off a conference bowl contract any more in 1984 than they could today.

07-coffee3

From the articles I have read and a special I watched about the 84 BYU team it seemed Edwards was adamant that BYU would play in the Holiday Bowl. I have always been curious behind the scenes if Edwards tried to get BYU out of the Holiday Bowl or if he wanted to play it knowing the caliber of opponent would be less than the orange or fiesta (kinda knowing he had a good shot of going undefeated) or if he was loyal to the Holiday Bowl. I also wondered if the orange or fiesta even extended invitations to BYU.

The orange would have been the national champion game that year if BYU played in it since Oklahoma was ranked #2. In the special I watched about the 84 BYU team there were clips of Switzer on the late night talk shows prior to the orange bowl stating that if OK beat Washington they (OK) deserved to be national champs.

I wonder if OK beat Wash if they would jumped BYU
11-05-2020 08:00 PM
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f1do Online
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Post: #66
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Wow...I'm kind of surprised BYU put the beat down on a short-handed Boise State 51-17. Before this BYU had never won @ Boise (0-5 with 2 1 point losses and a 5 point loss). San Diego State also took a loss tonight to San Jose State. I'm wondering if BYU can land any more games this season. Next week is a bye and then they have North Alabama at which point they should be 9-0. Then 2 more empty dates before San Diego State to end the season and await their bowl invite.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2020 01:32 AM by f1do.)
11-07-2020 01:31 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Wilson continues to amaze me. What a great QB. BYU is legit.
11-07-2020 06:51 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
The looked real good. Maybe score an away game against COVID ravaged PAC-12? I believe TCU and Baylor still have OOC games to give. Best bet may be to line something up for December 19th... if they are thinking playoff... and play at the same time as all these Championship Games; not sure which opponent would move the needle. Ha, maybe by then a division “champ” of the PAC-12 will be on quarantine and the Cougars could slide in.
11-07-2020 07:30 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Good night for BYU still a sell on playoffs though
11-07-2020 08:23 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-07-2020 08:23 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Good night for BYU still a sell on playoffs though

Yes, their schedule just doesn't give them the best chance to prove themselves.
11-07-2020 08:42 AM
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-07-2020 08:42 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-07-2020 08:23 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Good night for BYU still a sell on playoffs though

Yes, their schedule just doesn't give them the best chance to prove themselves.

Their schedule is pretty weak. Haven’t beat a strong team yet. BSU may not be very good this year.
11-07-2020 08:46 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Exclamation RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
I didn't expect BYU to blow out Boise State the way they did. They also beat Houston pretty handily. It's not likely BYU loses either of the last 2 games, so it's really all about their strength of schedule at this point... not an argument the CFP was hoping to have!

Good news: maximum number of at-large NY6 bowls this year.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2020 09:05 AM by Hokie Mark.)
11-07-2020 09:04 AM
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Todor Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-07-2020 06:51 AM)esayem Wrote:  Wilson continues to amaze me. What a great QB. BYU is legit.

I have watched all of BYUs games and am more impressed with Zach Wilson the more I see him. 21 for 27 passing last night and 359 yards, no interceptions.

Originally committed to Boise incidentally. BYU only started recruiting him late in the game after another QB changed plans.
11-07-2020 09:33 AM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
BYU back down to 23% after that stunning win. Not sure how the ESPN number makers make the numbers (same as ATL vote counters? jk)
11-07-2020 12:45 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Liberty will have a better chance. They play some decent P5 schools.
11-07-2020 03:17 PM
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RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Liberty knocked off Virginia Tech today 38-35, beat Syracuse 38-21 earlier, and still has to face NC State (4-3) and #15 ranked Coastal Carolina.

Also interesting that FCS North Alabama, who BYU plays in 2 weeks, is leading Southern Miss 10-7 midway through the 2nd quarter. They are 0-2 after losing to Liberty (7-28) and Jacksonville State (17-24).

And I still wonder if the BYU @ Army game doesn't pop back on the schedule with Army continuing to lose games. They call the Air Force game "postponed" but Army's only opening is 12/5 and Air Force is booked on 12/3 to play Utah State. If they don't reschedule either BYU or Air Force, they will play a 10 game season.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2020 04:09 PM by f1do.)
11-07-2020 04:03 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-07-2020 04:03 PM)f1do Wrote:  Liberty knocked off Virginia Tech today 38-35, beat Syracuse 38-21 earlier, and still has to face NC State (4-3) and #15 ranked Coastal Carolina.

Also interesting that FCS North Alabama, who BYU plays in 2 weeks, is leading Southern Miss 10-7 midway through the 2nd quarter. They are 0-2 after losing to Liberty (7-28) and Jacksonville State (17-24).

And I still wonder if the BYU @ Army game doesn't pop back on the schedule with Army continuing to lose games. They call the Air Force game "postponed" but Army's only opening is 12/5 and Air Force is booked on 12/3 to play Utah State. If they don't reschedule either BYU or Air Force, they will play a 10 game season.

Army and Air Force are exploring a December 19 play date.

They badly want to play the game.
11-07-2020 04:28 PM
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-07-2020 03:17 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Liberty will have a better chance. They play some decent P5 schools.

Neither team is making the playoffs. I do think one can make a NY6 bowl but right now BYU is leading in that race. Liberty has to win out, hope for CCU to win out, and have BYU lose to SDSU. Not impossible but not likely either.
11-07-2020 05:19 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-07-2020 12:45 PM)Crayton Wrote:  BYU back down to 23% after that stunning win. Not sure how the ESPN number makers make the numbers (same as ATL vote counters? jk)

Well, their chances of making the playoffs probably vary pretty strongly with how other teams do.

For teams like Clemson and Alabama, it doesn't matter what other teams do, as long as they are unbeaten the only thing that factors in is whether they lose a game or not. But for a BYU, they need help to get in even if unbeaten, so the results of other games can affect their chances.
11-07-2020 05:38 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-07-2020 12:45 PM)Crayton Wrote:  BYU back down to 23% after that stunning win. Not sure how the ESPN number makers make the numbers (same as ATL vote counters? jk)

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fp...s/dir/desc

Cincy 54%
BYU 25%
all other G5 0%

BYU climbs 2% with Clemson & Georgia losses.
(This post was last modified: 11-08-2020 10:31 AM by Crayton.)
11-08-2020 10:30 AM
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