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Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
sell, way too high

That said they are dominating G5 competition
11-01-2020 08:04 PM
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Post: #42
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-26-2020 11:14 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(10-26-2020 10:36 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-25-2020 10:33 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(10-25-2020 09:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  According to ESPN, Marshall has the best odds now to go undefeated (58%), followed by Alabama (45%), BYU (44%), Clemson and Ohio State (43% each)

https://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2...format=jpg

Marshall undefeated has 0% chance of playoff, BYU 1%

Marshall has a much better chance of making the NY6. BYU isn't part of the G5. Neither makes the playoffs.

I disagree. I think an undefeated BYU will get an at-large bid. Marshall needs Cincy to lose twice and go undefeated to make a NY6.

They will jump a one loss Ohio St., one loss Clemson or two loss Georgia?

They probably wouldn't even jump a 3 loss Georgia.

Have you been paying ANY attention to the CFP committee the last 6 years? Its all about the eye test. And this year we have minimal ooc games to compare. They've already slotted the 4 slots-Ohio St., Clemson, Alabama, Georgia. Barring multiple upsets, that is who it will be.
11-01-2020 08:16 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Bearcats in the driver seat given the consistency in the AAC last few years. I don’t see a Pac12 in play. Will the PAC 12 champ even get 8 games? 12-0 UC vs two loss Big 12 or two loss ND is in. Frankly, two loss B1G should not be in contention either. Two loss SEC runner up, or splits between Clemson/ND and Bama/UGa would be an issue for BYU UC. No chance in that case with the possibility of rubber matches in the playoff.
(This post was last modified: 11-01-2020 08:20 PM by RUScarlets.)
11-01-2020 08:19 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-01-2020 08:04 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  sell, way too high

That said they are dominating G5 competition

So is UC.
11-02-2020 12:17 AM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-02-2020 12:17 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 08:04 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  sell, way too high

That said they are dominating G5 competition

So is UC.

Cincy was not in the OP, but same response if the odds were similar
11-02-2020 12:49 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #46
Exclamation RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-01-2020 08:04 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  sell, way too high

That said they are dominating G5 competition

If BYU were a stock I'd sell that stuff this week before they play Boise State!!!
11-02-2020 09:48 AM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-02-2020 09:48 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 08:04 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  sell, way too high

That said they are dominating G5 competition

If BYU were a stock I'd sell that stuff this week before they play Boise State!!!

That's this week.
11-02-2020 01:46 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-01-2020 07:57 PM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 07:01 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 06:42 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 04:51 PM)cubucks Wrote:  Cincy is beating better competition than BYU and their SOS will improve as the year advances.

I just wonder what we learned about Cincy’s SOS this week that would cause a jump from 8% to 43%, given we are already assuming they go undefeated.

I’ve got an undefeated Cincy @ 76% to make the playoff; perhaps bullish, but it looks like ESPN is heading my direction. 76% is actually down from 80% last week after the SMU victory because Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama all scored significant victories this week, squeezing Cincy a bit.
Maybe the elimination of Penn State, Michigan and North Carolina increased their %? I'm not sure, but others dropping out would have to impact their probability in a good way.

Cincy's outright dominance over quality opponents the last 2 weeks couldn't have hurt either.

Their dominance is probably the larger, emergent factor. The elimination of competition may point to BYU's 2% rise, but Cincy beating up the top half of the American is, dare we say, playoff-caliber.

Still, until Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson lose (and, likely, more than once), 3 spots are locked tight.
11-02-2020 03:49 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-02-2020 09:48 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 08:04 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  sell, way too high

That said they are dominating G5 competition

If BYU were a stock I'd sell that stuff this week before they play Boise State!!!

BYU has had much more time to gel in real game situations—I expect them to beat Boise St.
11-02-2020 03:53 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-02-2020 03:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(11-02-2020 09:48 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 08:04 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  sell, way too high

That said they are dominating G5 competition

If BYU were a stock I'd sell that stuff this week before they play Boise State!!!

BYU has had much more time to gel in real game situations—I expect them to beat Boise St.

Agreed. Even if Bachmeier plays, I don’t think we’ve hit our stride to play BYU and win.
11-02-2020 04:14 PM
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Big Frog II Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-24-2020 10:02 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%.

SELL SELL SELL!!

So you're saying there's a chance?
11-02-2020 08:35 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
BYU 84 NC
#2 Oklahoma 9-1-1 lost in Orange bowl to #4 Washington
#3 Florida 9-1-1 was on probation
#4 Washington 10-1 did not win Pac-10 and turned the Holiday bowl down
You can't duck BYU and then claim NC
#7 So Carolina 10-1 lost Gator bowl
I could never figure out why SoCar didn't try for Holiday bowl
Everybody else had 2 loses before bowl games

How can you not give it to BYU
11-03-2020 12:42 AM
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Todor Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
They will take a big jump if they beat Boise.
11-03-2020 06:09 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #54
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-03-2020 12:42 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  BYU 84 NC
#2 Oklahoma 9-1-1 lost in Orange bowl to #4 Washington
#3 Florida 9-1-1 was on probation
#4 Washington 10-1 did not win Pac-10 and turned the Holiday bowl down
You can't duck BYU and then claim NC
#7 So Carolina 10-1 lost Gator bowl
I could never figure out why SoCar didn't try for Holiday bowl
Everybody else had 2 loses before bowl games

How can you not give it to BYU

BYU winning the title in 84 wasn't that controversial, and there was a matter-of-fact view of it that pretty much comports with your account, save for the comment about Washington - nobody thought they were ducking BYU, Washington chose to play in the Orange Bowl because everyone in the world would have picked the Orange Bowl over the Holiday Bowl. No comparison there. You have to remember that before the bowls, Washington was ranked #4, so it's not like by not playing BYU they were passing on a #1 vs #2 matchup that would have been the de facto national title game.

But 1984 was just one of those strange years, like 1990 and 2007, when the usual top elites all lost multiple games, so it created an opening.

Nobody, not even the pollsters, really thought BYU was the best team. They played a very soft schedule and barely schlepped past a 6-6 Michigan team in their bowl game. BYU would have been a significant underdog vs Washington or Florida, an underdog against probably a few more teams in the top 10.

But in the end, they were basically the last man standing so the vote made sense.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2020 10:02 AM by quo vadis.)
11-03-2020 10:01 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #55
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-03-2020 06:09 AM)Todor Wrote:  They will take a big jump if they beat Boise.

And Boise will take a big jump if they beat BYU. It's a big game, I will tune in Friday.
11-03-2020 10:03 AM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-03-2020 10:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 12:42 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  BYU 84 NC
#2 Oklahoma 9-1-1 lost in Orange bowl to #4 Washington
#3 Florida 9-1-1 was on probation
#4 Washington 10-1 did not win Pac-10 and turned the Holiday bowl down
You can't duck BYU and then claim NC
#7 So Carolina 10-1 lost Gator bowl
I could never figure out why SoCar didn't try for Holiday bowl
Everybody else had 2 loses before bowl games

How can you not give it to BYU

BYU winning the title in 84 wasn't that controversial, and there was a matter-of-fact view of it that pretty much comports with your account, save for the comment about Washington - nobody thought they were ducking BYU, Washington chose to play in the Orange Bowl because everyone in the world would have picked the Orange Bowl over the Holiday Bowl. No comparison there. You have to remember that before the bowls, Washington was ranked #4, so it's not like by not playing BYU they were passing on a #1 vs #2 matchup that would have been the de facto national title game.

But 1984 was just one of those strange years, like 1990 and 2007, when the usual top elites all lost multiple games, so it created an opening.

Nobody, not even the pollsters, really thought BYU was the best team. They played a very soft schedule and barely schlepped past a 6-6 Michigan team in their bowl game. BYU would have been a significant underdog vs Washington or Florida, an underdog against probably a few more teams in the top 10.

But in the end, they were basically the last man standing so the vote made sense.

It's not directly relevant to the 1984 BYU-Washington "controversy," but I note that BYU beat Washington 31-3 the following September 1985.
11-03-2020 11:33 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #57
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-03-2020 11:33 AM)YNot Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 10:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-03-2020 12:42 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  BYU 84 NC
#2 Oklahoma 9-1-1 lost in Orange bowl to #4 Washington
#3 Florida 9-1-1 was on probation
#4 Washington 10-1 did not win Pac-10 and turned the Holiday bowl down
You can't duck BYU and then claim NC
#7 So Carolina 10-1 lost Gator bowl
I could never figure out why SoCar didn't try for Holiday bowl
Everybody else had 2 loses before bowl games

How can you not give it to BYU

BYU winning the title in 84 wasn't that controversial, and there was a matter-of-fact view of it that pretty much comports with your account, save for the comment about Washington - nobody thought they were ducking BYU, Washington chose to play in the Orange Bowl because everyone in the world would have picked the Orange Bowl over the Holiday Bowl. No comparison there. You have to remember that before the bowls, Washington was ranked #4, so it's not like by not playing BYU they were passing on a #1 vs #2 matchup that would have been the de facto national title game.

But 1984 was just one of those strange years, like 1990 and 2007, when the usual top elites all lost multiple games, so it created an opening.

Nobody, not even the pollsters, really thought BYU was the best team. They played a very soft schedule and barely schlepped past a 6-6 Michigan team in their bowl game. BYU would have been a significant underdog vs Washington or Florida, an underdog against probably a few more teams in the top 10.

But in the end, they were basically the last man standing so the vote made sense.

It's not directly relevant to the 1984 BYU-Washington "controversy," but I note that BYU beat Washington 31-3 the following September 1985.

Yes, but Washington finished a 7-5 team in 1985, so not really impressive.

One other thing that helped BYU in 1984 was they had become like Boise was in the early 2000s, a team that was really rising in stature. BYU had won 11 games in 1979, 1980 and 1981 (finishing in the final AP top 12 all three years) and 1983. They had finished #7 in the final 1983 AP poll after winning their last 11 games, so the pollsters were already primed to vote for them. They were not a "Cinderella" in the sense we would regard now.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2020 11:56 AM by quo vadis.)
11-03-2020 11:56 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
" Washington chose to play in Orange bowl, everybody would overlook Holiday.
I
( it's not unprescient to leapfrog after beating #1.)

That's my point, they'll went for the money.
Everything went BYU way, then they'll cried about
11-03-2020 12:43 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
I didn’t realize BYU’s 1984 team is suiting up this season.
11-03-2020 04:56 PM
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esayem Online
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Post: #60
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-03-2020 04:56 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  I didn’t realize BYU’s 1984 team is suiting up this season.

Unfortunately, it is something pundits bring up. Like Notre Dame's glory days, or Boise St. crashing the BCS party.

For the record, I think Cincy is the best G5 out there. I've even won a few shekels to back up my statement.

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11-03-2020 05:07 PM
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