Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Buy or Sell: BYU/Cincy to the Playoff?
Author Message
Crayton Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 450
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 48
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #21
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-23-2020 10:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 29% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. Too high? Too low? Overall these Cougars are rated the 9th most likely playoff team and the only non-“Power” team given >0.0% chance by FPI.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Now up to 31% (assuming all BYU playoff appearances are only if undefeated).

Cincy on the board at 8%. Boise at 6%.
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2020 05:13 PM by Crayton.)
10-25-2020 05:11 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WhoseHouse? Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,234
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 190
I Root For: UH
Location:
Post: #22
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-25-2020 05:11 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 29% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. Too high? Too low? Overall these Cougars are rated the 9th most likely playoff team and the only non-“Power” team given >0.0% chance by FPI.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Now up to 31% (assuming all BYU playoff appearances are only if undefeated).

Cincy on the board at 8%. Boise at 6%.

I see 13% for BYU and .2% for Cincy.
10-25-2020 05:16 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ken d Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 11,482
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 556
I Root For: college sports
Location: Raleigh
Post: #23
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-24-2020 02:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-24-2020 01:15 PM)ManleyPointer Wrote:  It's an interesting hypothetical but I'm told by our older fans that BYU's best ever team was 1985. And they lost to an otherwise winless UTEP.

(10-23-2020 11:30 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:56 PM)Todor Wrote:  Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning.

Nobody is blaming BYU for their schedule. But we can"t give them credit for teams they aren't playing.

We did in 1984. That championship is often dogged because BYU played a subpar Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. An 11-1 Washington had a chance to play us. They balked & took the Orange Bowl payday. Pollsters remembered that.

I remember 1984 very well. Yes, BYU lucked out in playing sorry Michigan in their bowl game (and a schleppy uninspiring win at that, I remember watching). No, you can't blame Washington for playing in the Orange Bowl rather than the Holiday Bowl. Anyone would do that. But the real reason you guys won the title was nobody else was very good that year.

Sure, had BYU played Washington or Florida, you probably would have lost. But so what. Nobody was really much good and you guys were undefeated so .... championship.

04-cheers

If memory serves me well (and and my age that's never a slam dunk), BYU only played one ranked team that year. That was against Pitt in their opening game, and Pitt wound up winning something like three games the entire year. I don't think any voter in 2020 would have given a team with that kind of resume a shot at a national championship.
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2020 11:38 AM by ken d.)
10-25-2020 05:25 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 450
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 48
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #24
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-25-2020 05:16 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(10-25-2020 05:11 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 29% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. Too high? Too low? Overall these Cougars are rated the 9th most likely playoff team and the only non-“Power” team given >0.0% chance by FPI.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Now up to 31% (assuming all BYU playoff appearances are only if undefeated).

Cincy on the board at 8%. Boise at 6%.

I see 13% for BYU and .2% for Cincy.

“If they go undefeated.” Just simple division and the assumption that none of those teams would make it with 1 loss.
10-25-2020 06:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WhoseHouse? Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,234
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 190
I Root For: UH
Location:
Post: #25
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-25-2020 06:15 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(10-25-2020 05:16 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(10-25-2020 05:11 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 29% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. Too high? Too low? Overall these Cougars are rated the 9th most likely playoff team and the only non-“Power” team given >0.0% chance by FPI.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Now up to 31% (assuming all BYU playoff appearances are only if undefeated).

Cincy on the board at 8%. Boise at 6%.

I see 13% for BYU and .2% for Cincy.

“If they go undefeated.” Just simple division and the assumption that none of those teams would make it with 1 loss.

Either way, hard sell. They would take four SEC teams before BYU.
10-25-2020 06:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Online
Legend
*

Posts: 36,480
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 1079
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #26
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-25-2020 05:25 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(10-24-2020 02:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-24-2020 01:15 PM)ManleyPointer Wrote:  It's an interesting hypothetical but I'm told by our older fans that BYU's best ever team was 1985. And they lost to an otherwise winless UTEP.

(10-23-2020 11:30 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:56 PM)Todor Wrote:  Its hard not to at least glance at BYU's pre Covid schedule, which was pretty solid, and to give them some benefit of the doubt. Its not like they went out and chose all of these teams with years of pre planning.

Nobody is blaming BYU for their schedule. But we can"t give them credit for teams they aren't playing.

We did in 1984. That championship is often dogged because BYU played a subpar Michigan in the Holiday Bowl. An 11-1 Washington had a chance to play us. They balked & took the Orange Bowl payday. Pollsters remembered that.

I remember 1984 very well. Yes, BYU lucked out in playing sorry Michigan in their bowl game (and a schleppy uninspiring win at that, I remember watching). No, you can't blame Washington for playing in the Orange Bowl rather than the Holiday Bowl. Anyone would do that. But the real reason you guys won the title was nobody else was very good that year.

Sure, had BYU played Washington or Florida, you probably would have lost. But so what. Nobody was really much good and you guys were undefeated so .... championship.

04-cheers

If memory serves me well (and and my age that's never a slam dunk), BYU only played one ranked team that year. That was against Pitt in their opening game, and Pitt would up winning something like three games the entire year. I don't think any voter in 2020 would have given a team with that kind of resume a shot at a national championship.

I agree. The best team they beat all that year was an 8-4 Air Force team.
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2020 06:54 PM by quo vadis.)
10-25-2020 06:52 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bullet Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 44,767
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 1628
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #27
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Take the bet. The odds of BYU being in the playoffs are less than 0.1%.
10-25-2020 08:25 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
schmolik Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,233
Joined: Sep 2019
Reputation: 43
I Root For: UIUC, PSU, Nova
Location: Philadelphia Suburbs
Post: #28
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
According to ESPN, Marshall has the best odds now to go undefeated (58%), followed by Alabama (45%), BYU (44%), Clemson and Ohio State (43% each)

https://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2...format=jpg
10-25-2020 09:32 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
goodknightfl Online
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 17,868
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 292
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #29
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-25-2020 09:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  According to ESPN, Marshall has the best odds now to go undefeated (58%), followed by Alabama (45%), BYU (44%), Clemson and Ohio State (43% each)

https://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2...format=jpg

Marshall undefeated has 0% chance of playoff, BYU 1%
10-25-2020 10:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Gamecock Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,618
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 164
I Root For: South Carolina
Location:
Post: #30
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Cincinnati has a much better path IMO.
10-26-2020 10:18 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Wahoowa84 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 444
Joined: Oct 2017
Reputation: 70
I Root For: UVa
Location:
Post: #31
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Only chance is if a) there are undefeated non P5 teams (BYU is doing their part), b) multiple P5 conference champs have 2 or greater losses, and c) there are no 1 loss non-champion P5 teams. With these 3 criteria met, I’d put BYU’s odds at 29%.

Problem is that it is very speculative to expect that the three gating events will be met.
10-26-2020 10:33 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
CliftonAve Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 17,201
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 667
I Root For: CinCity Pride
Location:
Post: #32
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-26-2020 10:18 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Cincinnati has a much better path IMO.

Cincinnati has a tougher SOS. However, if UC runs through it the naysers will still say the teams they beat were obviously not very good because the Bearcats were able to beat them.
10-26-2020 10:33 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bullet Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 44,767
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 1628
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #33
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-25-2020 10:33 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(10-25-2020 09:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  According to ESPN, Marshall has the best odds now to go undefeated (58%), followed by Alabama (45%), BYU (44%), Clemson and Ohio State (43% each)

https://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2...format=jpg

Marshall undefeated has 0% chance of playoff, BYU 1%

Marshall has a much better chance of making the NY6. BYU isn't part of the G5. Neither makes the playoffs.
10-26-2020 10:36 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WhoseHouse? Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,234
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 190
I Root For: UH
Location:
Post: #34
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-26-2020 10:36 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-25-2020 10:33 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(10-25-2020 09:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  According to ESPN, Marshall has the best odds now to go undefeated (58%), followed by Alabama (45%), BYU (44%), Clemson and Ohio State (43% each)

https://a2.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2...format=jpg

Marshall undefeated has 0% chance of playoff, BYU 1%

Marshall has a much better chance of making the NY6. BYU isn't part of the G5. Neither makes the playoffs.

I disagree. I think an undefeated BYU will get an at-large bid. Marshall needs Cincy to lose twice and go undefeated to make a NY6.
10-26-2020 11:14 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 450
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 48
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #35
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-25-2020 05:11 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(10-23-2020 10:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 29% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. Too high? Too low? Overall these Cougars are rated the 9th most likely playoff team and the only non-“Power” team given >0.0% chance by FPI.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Now up to 31% (assuming all BYU playoff appearances are only if undefeated).

Cincy on the board at 8%. Boise at 6%.

This week, Cincy jumps to 43%. BYU inches up to 33%. Boise steady at 6%. I wonder what caused the Cincy jump. No Liberty, Coastal, or Marshall, or MAC... yet.

In the PAC-12: USC at 84%, Oregon at 82%, Utah 32%, and Washington 17%. Surprised by the large range and, generally, the fact that they’re not 100%.
11-01-2020 04:41 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
cubucks Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,121
Joined: Apr 2015
Reputation: 172
I Root For: tOSU/UNL/Ohio
Location: Athens, Ohio
Post: #36
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
Cincy is beating better competition than BYU and their SOS will improve as the year advances.
11-01-2020 04:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 450
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 48
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #37
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-01-2020 04:51 PM)cubucks Wrote:  Cincy is beating better competition than BYU and their SOS will improve as the year advances.

I just wonder what we learned about Cincy’s SOS this week that would cause a jump from 8% to 43%, given we are already assuming they go undefeated.

I’ve got an undefeated Cincy @ 76% to make the playoff; perhaps bullish, but it looks like ESPN is heading my direction. 76% is actually down from 80% last week after the SMU victory because Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama all scored significant victories this week, squeezing Cincy a bit.
11-01-2020 06:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
cubucks Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,121
Joined: Apr 2015
Reputation: 172
I Root For: tOSU/UNL/Ohio
Location: Athens, Ohio
Post: #38
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-01-2020 06:42 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 04:51 PM)cubucks Wrote:  Cincy is beating better competition than BYU and their SOS will improve as the year advances.

I just wonder what we learned about Cincy’s SOS this week that would cause a jump from 8% to 43%, given we are already assuming they go undefeated.

I’ve got an undefeated Cincy @ 76% to make the playoff; perhaps bullish, but it looks like ESPN is heading my direction. 76% is actually down from 80% last week after the SMU victory because Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama all scored significant victories this week, squeezing Cincy a bit.
Maybe the elimination of Penn State, Michigan and North Carolina increased their %? I'm not sure, but others dropping out would have to impact their probability in a good way.
11-01-2020 07:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
sierrajip Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,669
Joined: May 2011
Reputation: 100
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #39
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(10-24-2020 03:17 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(10-24-2020 02:50 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  BYU has a 0.0% chance of making the playoff if undefeated. Even if everyone else has a loss. The CFP selection committee will find a way to keep them out.

If that ends up happening, it wouldn't be too surprising to see a movement at BYU to align with the AAC, or possibly the MWC, where they could play more nationally-ranked teams.

Not buying that. The LDS has control and the ratings they bring will keep ESPiN paying them a contract that the LDS will be happy with.
11-01-2020 07:23 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Indiana Bones Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,142
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 86
I Root For: ECU
Location: Greenville, NC
Post: #40
RE: Buy or Sell: Undefeated BYU has 29% chance to make playoffs?
(11-01-2020 07:01 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 06:42 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 04:51 PM)cubucks Wrote:  Cincy is beating better competition than BYU and their SOS will improve as the year advances.

I just wonder what we learned about Cincy’s SOS this week that would cause a jump from 8% to 43%, given we are already assuming they go undefeated.

I’ve got an undefeated Cincy @ 76% to make the playoff; perhaps bullish, but it looks like ESPN is heading my direction. 76% is actually down from 80% last week after the SMU victory because Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama all scored significant victories this week, squeezing Cincy a bit.
Maybe the elimination of Penn State, Michigan and North Carolina increased their %? I'm not sure, but others dropping out would have to impact their probability in a good way.

Cincy's outright dominance over quality opponents the last 2 weeks couldn't have hurt either.
11-01-2020 07:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2020 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2020 MyBB Group.