There were 2 tense months after the announcement of TAMU before we all learned that Missouri was going to the SEC too and that WVU’s consolation prize was a spot in the Big 12. (TCU had already been announced as TAMU’s replacement)

Somewhere in between the ACC tried to bolster their numbers by inviting Syracuse and Pitt.

I’m still shocked that no one in the ACC broke ranks and pursued the SEC.

State politics would have made it hard for VT, UVA, NC St, or UNC to make that move without a package deal in place but I’m still shocked that Florida St, Clemson, GT, or Miami didn’t make an attempt to jump—particularly Florida St and Clemson who are football first schools and have the feel of an SEC institution far more than AAU midwestern state land grant Missouri.

I’ve read speculation that the SEC needed two new markets to get their media rights reopened for negotiation but surely hauling in two big fish would have been grounds to bring that up. Certainly ESPN and CBS, if faced with an ultimatum of let us bring in Florida St and up our tv contract or we’re going to add some random school and you’re still going to have to up the contract, would have agreed to talk dollars with that consortium of high value athletic programs.

So what gives? Was their truly unwavering love of conference by all 12 ACC schools (well, maybe not so much love from Maryland)?

Did the SEC back down from a media rights dispute?

Did someone in the SEC really love Missouri and/or wanted to stick it to the Big Ten?

————

To me, the way things would have played out was that Florida St would have won the SEC lottery, WVU or USF replaces them in the ACC, and then when Rutgers and Maryland get picked up by the Big Ten then the loser for FSU’s spot face off against Louisville for Maryland’s spot.

Or maybe things open wide up and even more expansion occurs.

(10-19-2020 04:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There were 2 tense months after the announcement of TAMU before we all learned that Missouri was going to the SEC too and that WVU’s consolation prize was a spot in the Big 12. (TCU had already been announced as TAMU’s replacement)

Somewhere in between the ACC tried to bolster their numbers by inviting Syracuse and Pitt.

I’m still shocked that no one in the ACC broke ranks and pursued the SEC.

State politics would have made it hard for VT, UVA, NC St, or UNC to make that move without a package deal in place but I’m still shocked that Florida St, Clemson, GT, or Miami didn’t make an attempt to jump—particularly Florida St and Clemson who are football first schools and have the feel of an SEC institution far more than AAU midwestern state land grant Missouri.

I’ve read speculation that the SEC needed two new markets to get their media rights reopened for negotiation but surely hauling in two big fish would have been grounds to bring that up. Certainly ESPN and CBS, if faced with an ultimatum of let us bring in Florida St and up our tv contract or we’re going to add some random school and you’re still going to have to up the contract, would have agreed to talk dollars with that consortium of high value athletic programs.

So what gives? Was their truly unwavering love of conference by all 12 ACC schools (well, maybe not so much love from Maryland)?

Did the SEC back down from a media rights dispute?

Did someone in the SEC really love Missouri and/or wanted to stick it to the Big Ten?

————

To me, the way things would have played out was that Florida St would have won the SEC lottery, WVU or USF replaces them in the ACC, and then when Rutgers and Maryland get picked up by the Big Ten then the loser for FSU’s spot face off against Louisville for Maryland’s spot.

Or maybe things open wide up and even more expansion occurs.

Without FSU, the ACC has one fewer football centric school so I'd guess the basketball schools would have more clout and UConn would have a way better chance to get in (plus if Florida State is already gone you don't have to worry about driving them away).

There was a lot of speculation of NC State and Virginia Tech joining the SEC (mostly led by Clay Travis) I do think state politics played an issue into it, North Carolina and Virginia didn’t want to leave their state flagship universities in a decreasing conference, while giving secondary schools to a better conference.

Had the SEC been able to get those two, it becomes much more likely that UNC and UVA join the Big Ten (with or without Maryland) and Duke and Wake Forrest would have been left behind.

As you reference about the background in 2011, to reopen their media contract with ESPN both the SEC and ACC needed two new markets. Moving FSU or Clemson from the ACC to the SEC doesn’t add a new market...it merely transfers an ESPN controlled media rights entity from one conference to another. There is no way that ESPN would have allowed that change...because it’s contrary to the contract terms and it doesn’t help ESPN. Therefore, FSU and Clemson are off the table.

Georgia Tech has the same in-market problem as FSU & Clemson, but GT also likely has a problem with its overall value. Specifically, GT doesn’t generate enough revenue from its commitment to athletics. The revenue issue also disqualifies Wake Forest as a potential target.

The only viable targets for the SEC would have been UNC, NC State, Duke, UVA and VT. UNC and NC State share the same board, so neither can leave without the other party’s knowledge. UNC, Duke and UVA are the core of the ACC and will only leave if the ACC is dissolving. That left Virginia Tech as the only viable candidate for the SEC.

The Hokies spent decades trying to get into the ACC and their athletics have blossomed nicely since they entered. There was a lot of political maneuvering to get them into the ACC and they likely have remaining good will towards their fellow schools. I imagine that there was pressure on the VT leadership.

(10-19-2020 05:34 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  As you reference about the background in 2011, to reopen their media contract with ESPN both the SEC and ACC needed two new markets. Moving FSU or Clemson from the ACC to the SEC doesn’t add a new market...it merely transfers an ESPN controlled media rights entity from one conference to another. There is no way that ESPN would have allowed that change...because it’s contrary to the contract terms and it doesn’t help ESPN. Therefore, FSU and Clemson are off the table.

Georgia Tech has the same in-market problem as FSU & Clemson, but GT also likely has a problem with its overall value. Specifically, GT doesn’t generate enough revenue from its commitment to athletics. The revenue issue also disqualifies Wake Forest as a potential target.

The only viable targets for the SEC would have been UNC, NC State, Duke, UVA and VT. UNC and NC State share the same board, so neither can leave without the other party’s knowledge. UNC, Duke and UVA are the core of the ACC and will only leave if the ACC is dissolving. That left Virginia Tech as the only viable candidate for the SEC.

The Hokies spent decades trying to get into the ACC and their athletics have blossomed nicely since they entered. There was a lot of political maneuvering to get them into the ACC and they likely have remaining good will towards their fellow schools. I imagine that there was pressure on the VT leadership.

Except none of this is what happened.

1. Two new markets? Yes Texas A&M was in as a no brainer and Missouri took Oklahoma's slot when Oklahoma president David Boren insisted the SEC take Oklahoma State as well. We weren't dropping A&M to land Okie State and that offer didn't satisfy the two new market requirement anyway. A&M was the top choice period. Missouri (and we were under the market footprint subscription pay model) had 6 million people and West Virginia who thought and claimed they were in the running had 1.1 million.

But that's where it gets interesting. The Dude thought the SEC was talking with the Eer's when our plane landed in WVU and we held meetings at the Greenbriar with VaTech. Just days after that happened any consideration of Va Tech at 15 and N.C. State at 16 was killed by Chapel Hill and buds.

ESPN was hoping at the time to enhance the markets of both the SEC and ACC. Virginia and North Carolina were going nowhere, and at the time neither was Maryland. The SECN was set to launch adding the 27 million potential viewers in Texas, the over 6 million viewers in Missouri and the nearly 21 million viewers in North Carolina and Virginia. Deloss Dodds had plans to move with 3 others to the ACC and one of those would have been Notre Dame. When the deal fell through some curious things happened.

2. Curious things: These are the "alleged events" talked about behind some of the scenes of action. Remember when something falls through in realignment it never happened due to potential legal entanglements.

Maryland immediately bolted for the Big 10 which had been in talks with them already. The deal for the ACC would have opened the ACCN by 2013 and the payout for the moves would have been much more lucrative than the ACC had gotten. No deal plus lots of debt and bye bye Maryland.

The SECN was suddenly going to open with 21 million fewer potential viewers and they weren't moving to 16. Slive is pissed, ESPN is pissed, Dodds is pissed, and the ACCN is shelved.

In he interim the SEC is momentarily appeased. ESPN agrees to let Clemson and Florida State move to the SEC as #15 and 16. It appears on the ESPN crawler. A friend of mine has his father's friend an ACC official confirm it. The official is worried if the conference survives at that point. Notre Dame agrees to come as partial but only if the football first schools stay put. ESPN withdraws consent and promises the SECN full carriage at the open of the SECN. They deliver.

Once Notre Dame is confirmed and Spanier gets F.S.U.'s rogue Trustee settled down F.S.U. signs the new GOR and everything settles in. The ACC is eventually supplemented 2 million per school not to have the ACCN. Louisville is brought in to replace Maryland (a nice addition in all regards).

Texas is given assurances and perks and the Big 12 GOR which preceded that of the ACC locks things in place for them.

Status quo settles in.

3. What allegedly happened was that ESPN sought to scoop the prize programs out of the remainder of the Big 12 and right out from under the noses of FOX which held 50% of the rights. Had Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and another joined the ACC to take them to 16 while keeping Maryland it would have been quite the coup with the already strong SEC picking up A&M and Mizzou and really cashing in on the footprint.

ESPN would have locked down with that one move 7 of the top 10 programs nationally and 18 of the top 25 and everything that has national draw south of Virginia / Kentucky / and Missouri.

They would have pitted the ACC against the SEC in the Sugar bowl and would have been guaranteed a bonanza in the process since they also filled in with the AAC in that large market.

But alas it didn't happen so it never was, except for the fallout which was there for all to see, Maryland's departure, Clemson and FSU announced, Boren trying to leverage OSU, Dodds comments about looking East, which they are no longer doing, and of course the coup plotters at ESPN the leadership of which was changed out shortly thereafter. When a plot fails you get rid of the conspirators and just act like nothing happened. Plausible deniability is maintained, lawsuits evaporate, and you pay through the nose to keep those in the know happy. SEC happy? check. Tobacco Road happy? check. Texas happy? check. Notre Dame happy? check. Everyone else is signed to GOR's and FOX got a big portion of the Big 10 which was ancillary and not of ESPN's doing so are they happy? check.

In retrospect it's probably a good thing it didn't happen. Why? The market footprint subscription model is history except for conference networks and they are fading fast. Branding is what pays the bills moving forward and content match ups between brands the best way to maximize it. The SEC would have been stuck with 3 new schools without that kind of branding (Missouri, N.C. State and Va Tech). Texas likely would not have been happy because minor sports travel would have been murder and they really wanted their own fiefdom anyway. Oklahoma has never known what the hell they wanted to do and would have been divided no matter what had happened. If OU moves today to the SEC or Big 10 they will have split the fan base. I think that's the main reason they stay put, and will continue to try to do so. Notre Dame wants to be independent. Florida State is way off their game. And the SEC and Big 10 are still miles ahead in revenue with fewer mouths to feed.

Texas and Oklahoma to either the SEC or Big 10 is the only move that makes everyone more money (Notre Dame for Oklahoma to the Big 10 would but they aren't moving).

4. The New Threat to All Conferences:

Pay for play passes. Streaming becomes mainstream. Content is all that is rewarded and the Big 10 and SEC see the need to move to more conference games and content additions only to maximize future revenue so the Big 12, ACC, and PAC are raided for the very top national audience draws and their strongest programs. The Big 10 and SEC eventually shed lesser contributors and we move to a consolidated league of anywhere from 36 to 48 schools. It is the inevitable path of getting paid for top brand contests.

What's more cable conference networks are going to die, likely within 3 to 5 years. They only carry the crappiest games now and even on streaming the current networks including ESPN will simply offer their time slots to the best games and everything else will be paid by the view. So the top conferences will jockey to get their schedules beefed up so that they have 10 to 16 of their schools on some prime or subprime time slot each week and have as few as possible games simply paid by the view as a game only of interest to the fan bases of the two schools (Think Vandy vs Miss State or NW vs Purdue).

There's your new future so enjoy your current conferences while you have them.

To "break ranks" you have to have somewhere to go.

If the SEC didn't send out signals that it would welcome Clemson and/or FSU, then those schools would be foolish to leave the ACC without a safe landing spot. To my knowledge, the SEC never sent out feelers in 2011 that it wanted Clemson or FSU to join.

JR is contradicting himself. You can’t have conferences making more money, and the old method going to the wayside at the same time. Conference packages are the old way. What’s to stop the best programs from streaming their own content and maximizing their potential? If anything, conferences will just be interesting scheduling partners.

(10-19-2020 07:53 PM)esayem Wrote:  JR is contradicting himself. You can’t have conferences making more money, and the old method going to the wayside at the same time. Conference packages are the old way. What’s to stop the best programs from streaming their own content and maximizing their potential? If anything, conferences will just be interesting scheduling partners.

The conferences in 2011 were paid mostly by ratings for T1 and T2 rights and completely by subscription fees for the networks. The technology wasn't available then to actually count viewers so they were estimated by footprint households when figuring the rates paid for the T1 and T2.

With the advent of smart TVs the Big 10 and SEC payouts increased dramatically for those first two tier of rights because the networks finally knew exactly how many were watching and for how long during an actual game.

That's why we are moving to streaming and the national draws will pay more than regional draws and a lot more than those schools that pretty much just pull their alums. The pay model will be changing again.

By the way Dennis Dodd is out their tonight talking about a breakaway of the top schools within the P5. Consolidation is what we will see moving forward and it will eventually affect all of the P5 conferences.

No contradictions at all sport except maybe for those with comprehension problems or no clue as to how payouts are calculated.

The days of any subscription fee models lasting are very numbered. But even in moving to streaming there will be offerings by the networks on their streaming sites for the premier time slot games and then what's left will be there for those specifically interested in a particular game that doesn't have a national draw and they will basically be paid by the stream. The time slot games will get a premium because they draw advertisers.

And if you had actually read the post I said the P5 were all threatened because the biggest draws (top money makers) will be consolidated. That's exactly how they make more. Now whether that is a consortium of independents or the formation of a league is merely a formality.

#4 is the part where this is covered.

(10-19-2020 04:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There were 2 tense months after the announcement of TAMU before we all learned that Missouri was going to the SEC too and that WVU’s consolation prize was a spot in the Big 12. (TCU had already been announced as TAMU’s replacement)

Somewhere in between the ACC tried to bolster their numbers by inviting Syracuse and Pitt.

I’m still shocked that no one in the ACC broke ranks and pursued the SEC.

State politics would have made it hard for VT, UVA, NC St, or UNC to make that move without a package deal in place but I’m still shocked that Florida St, Clemson, GT, or Miami didn’t make an attempt to jump—particularly Florida St and Clemson who are football first schools and have the feel of an SEC institution far more than AAU midwestern state land grant Missouri.

I’ve read speculation that the SEC needed two new markets to get their media rights reopened for negotiation...

This one is fairly easy. First, you have to understand that while the Big Ten may want to destroy the ACC, the SEC doesn't. More than half of the teams in those two conferences used to be mates in the Southern Conference - they are like cousins (no inbreeding jokes, please!). Second, the SEC really did want to reopen their contract so they could launch the SECN, and that required two new markets, which took Miami, FSU, GT and Clemson off the table. I have sources which indicate that the SEC did meet with Virginia Tech, but the Hokies weren't comfortable even trying to leave the ACC after all that political maneuvering to get IN. Not sure what conversations were held with UVA, UNC and/or NC State (although I've heard rumors that UNC and UVA were talked to at the very least, and NC State is "common knowledge").

Synopsis: the SEC couldn't get the ACC teams they wanted so they took 2 from the Big XII.

(10-19-2020 05:34 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  As you reference about the background in 2011, to reopen their media contract with ESPN both the SEC and ACC needed two new markets. Moving FSU or Clemson from the ACC to the SEC doesn’t add a new market...it merely transfers an ESPN controlled media rights entity from one conference to another. There is no way that ESPN would have allowed that change...because it’s contrary to the contract terms and it doesn’t help ESPN. Therefore, FSU and Clemson are off the table.

Georgia Tech has the same in-market problem as FSU & Clemson, but GT also likely has a problem with its overall value. Specifically, GT doesn’t generate enough revenue from its commitment to athletics. The revenue issue also disqualifies Wake Forest as a potential target.

The only viable targets for the SEC would have been UNC, NC State, Duke, UVA and VT. UNC and NC State share the same board, so neither can leave without the other party’s knowledge. UNC, Duke and UVA are the core of the ACC and will only leave if the ACC is dissolving. That left Virginia Tech as the only viable candidate for the SEC.

The Hokies spent decades trying to get into the ACC and their athletics have blossomed nicely since they entered. There was a lot of political maneuvering to get them into the ACC and they likely have remaining good will towards their fellow schools. I imagine that there was pressure on the VT leadership.

The website MR SEC had ranked Carolina as their #2 target for SEC expansion first behind Texas and then after a "re-evaluation" they decided Texas A&M was their top choice. MR SEC paired Duke with Carolina as their other ACC target and even suggested that the SEC should also invite NC State IF that is what it took to close the deal with the Tar Heels.
IIRC Florida State was ranked #10 or #11 and Clemson was not rated highly at all.

JR, I’ve read you preaching 4 conferences for what seems like years. Some model where there is no room for lower tiered programs to upgrade. I’ve always said that there is much more likely to be a scenario where there is no breakaway, but programs will make money independently. Whether that means they go Indy or they get rid of conference packages.

If you’re telling me you’re changing your prediction, then fine.

(10-19-2020 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 05:34 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  As you reference about the background in 2011, to reopen their media contract with ESPN both the SEC and ACC needed two new markets. Moving FSU or Clemson from the ACC to the SEC doesn’t add a new market...it merely transfers an ESPN controlled media rights entity from one conference to another. There is no way that ESPN would have allowed that change...because it’s contrary to the contract terms and it doesn’t help ESPN. Therefore, FSU and Clemson are off the table.

Georgia Tech has the same in-market problem as FSU & Clemson, but GT also likely has a problem with its overall value. Specifically, GT doesn’t generate enough revenue from its commitment to athletics. The revenue issue also disqualifies Wake Forest as a potential target.

The only viable targets for the SEC would have been UNC, NC State, Duke, UVA and VT. UNC and NC State share the same board, so neither can leave without the other party’s knowledge. UNC, Duke and UVA are the core of the ACC and will only leave if the ACC is dissolving. That left Virginia Tech as the only viable candidate for the SEC.

The Hokies spent decades trying to get into the ACC and their athletics have blossomed nicely since they entered. There was a lot of political maneuvering to get them into the ACC and they likely have remaining good will towards their fellow schools. I imagine that there was pressure on the VT leadership.

Except none of this is what happened.

1. Two new markets? Yes Texas A&M was in as a no brainer and Missouri took Oklahoma's slot when Oklahoma president David Boren insisted the SEC take Oklahoma State as well. We weren't dropping A&M to land Okie State and that offer didn't satisfy the two new market requirement anyway. A&M was the top choice period. Missouri (and we were under the market footprint subscription pay model) had 6 million people and West Virginia who thought and claimed they were in the running had 1.1 million.

But that's where it gets interesting. The Dude thought the SEC was talking with the Eer's when our plane landed in WVU and we held meetings at the Greenbriar with VaTech. Just days after that happened any consideration of Va Tech at 15 and N.C. State at 16 was killed by Chapel Hill and buds.

ESPN was hoping at the time to enhance the markets of both the SEC and ACC. Virginia and North Carolina were going nowhere, and at the time neither was Maryland. The SECN was set to launch adding the 27 million potential viewers in Texas, the over 6 million viewers in Missouri and the nearly 21 million viewers in North Carolina and Virginia. Deloss Dodds had plans to move with 3 others to the ACC and one of those would have been Notre Dame. When the deal fell through some curious things happened.

2. Curious things: These are the "alleged events" talked about behind some of the scenes of action. Remember when something falls through in realignment it never happened due to potential legal entanglements.

Maryland immediately bolted for the Big 10 which had been in talks with them already. The deal for the ACC would have opened the ACCN by 2013 and the payout for the moves would have been much more lucrative than the ACC had gotten. No deal plus lots of debt and bye bye Maryland.

The SECN was suddenly going to open with 21 million fewer potential viewers and they weren't moving to 16. Slive is pissed, ESPN is pissed, Dodds is pissed, and the ACCN is shelved.

In he interim the SEC is momentarily appeased. ESPN agrees to let Clemson and Florida State move to the SEC as #15 and 16. It appears on the ESPN crawler. A friend of mine has his father's friend an ACC official confirm it. The official is worried if the conference survives at that point. Notre Dame agrees to come as partial but only if the football first schools stay put. ESPN withdraws consent and promises the SECN full carriage at the open of the SECN. They deliver.

Once Notre Dame is confirmed and Spanier gets F.S.U.'s rogue Trustee settled down F.S.U. signs the new GOR and everything settles in. The ACC is eventually supplemented 2 million per school not to have the ACCN. Louisville is brought in to replace Maryland (a nice addition in all regards).

Texas is given assurances and perks and the Big 12 GOR which preceded that of the ACC locks things in place for them.

Status quo settles in.

3. What allegedly happened was that ESPN sought to scoop the prize programs out of the remainder of the Big 12 and right out from under the noses of FOX which held 50% of the rights. Had Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and another joined the ACC to take them to 16 while keeping Maryland it would have been quite the coup with the already strong SEC picking up A&M and Mizzou and really cashing in on the footprint.

ESPN would have locked down with that one move 7 of the top 10 programs nationally and 18 of the top 25 and everything that has national draw south of Virginia / Kentucky / and Missouri.

They would have pitted the ACC against the SEC in the Sugar bowl and would have been guaranteed a bonanza in the process since they also filled in with the AAC in that large market.

But alas it didn't happen so it never was, except for the fallout which was there for all to see, Maryland's departure, Clemson and FSU announced, Boren trying to leverage OSU, Dodds comments about looking East, which they are no longer doing, and of course the coup plotters at ESPN the leadership of which was changed out shortly thereafter. When a plot fails you get rid of the conspirators and just act like nothing happened. Plausible deniability is maintained, lawsuits evaporate, and you pay through the nose to keep those in the know happy. SEC happy? check. Tobacco Road happy? check. Texas happy? check. Notre Dame happy? check. Everyone else is signed to GOR's and FOX got a big portion of the Big 10 which was ancillary and not of ESPN's doing so are they happy? check.

In retrospect it's probably a good thing it didn't happen. Why? The market footprint subscription model is history except for conference networks and they are fading fast. Branding is what pays the bills moving forward and content match ups between brands the best way to maximize it. The SEC would have been stuck with 3 new schools without that kind of branding (Missouri, N.C. State and Va Tech). Texas likely would not have been happy because minor sports travel would have been murder and they really wanted their own fiefdom anyway. Oklahoma has never known what the hell they wanted to do and would have been divided no matter what had happened. If OU moves today to the SEC or Big 10 they will have split the fan base. I think that's the main reason they stay put, and will continue to try to do so. Notre Dame wants to be independent. Florida State is way off their game. And the SEC and Big 10 are still miles ahead in revenue with fewer mouths to feed.

Texas and Oklahoma to either the SEC or Big 10 is the only move that makes everyone more money (Notre Dame for Oklahoma to the Big 10 would but they aren't moving).

4. The New Threat to All Conferences:

Pay for play passes. Streaming becomes mainstream. Content is all that is rewarded and the Big 10 and SEC see the need to move to more conference games and content additions only to maximize future revenue so the Big 12, ACC, and PAC are raided for the very top national audience draws and their strongest programs. The Big 10 and SEC eventually shed lesser contributors and we move to a consolidated league of anywhere from 36 to 48 schools. It is the inevitable path of getting paid for top brand contests.

What's more cable conference networks are going to die, likely within 3 to 5 years. They only carry the crappiest games now and even on streaming the current networks including ESPN will simply offer their time slots to the best games and everything else will be paid by the view. So the top conferences will jockey to get their schedules beefed up so that they have 10 to 16 of their schools on some prime or subprime time slot each week and have as few as possible games simply paid by the view as a game only of interest to the fan bases of the two schools (Think Vandy vs Miss State or NW vs Purdue).

There's your new future so enjoy your current conferences while you have them.

Not sure how these events fit with the timelines of conference realignment. The decision on TAMU to the SEC occurred in early September 2011 (about two weeks before the mid-September 2011 announcement of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC). The OP was asking for insights about this specific timetable...September and October 2011 (before Missouri accepted the 14th spot in the SEC).

Notre Dame’s partial deal with the ACC, Maryland’s decision to bolt to the BIG, and the FSU booster’s revolt didn’t occur until a full year later...in the fall of 2012.

When did ESPN inadvertently announce that FSU and Clemson were joining the SEC?

(10-19-2020 08:36 PM)esayem Wrote:  JR, I’ve read you preaching 4 conferences for what seems like years. Some model where there is no room for lower tiered programs to upgrade. I’ve always said that there is much more likely to be a scenario where there is no breakaway, but programs will make money independently. Whether that means they go Indy or they get rid of conference packages.

If you’re telling me you’re changing your prediction, then fine.

4 conferences likely would have happened if we had stayed under a footprint subscription pay model.

When that changed I talked about which schools would provide the best revenue boost basked upon their Gross Total Revenue, the WSJ's projection of their economic impact upon their region, and based upon their attendance and TV ratings. Hence Texas, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame being the only 3 schools that really added value to the Big 10 or SEC. That was well past the 4 conference model that was discussed ad nauseum from 2010-13.

We are still in the sphere of who adds value. Only what's changing now is how the pay model is calculated and technology has taken a hand. As the networks all adapt to streaming with ABC, NBC, CBS, ESPN, and FOX already represented the push will be for a consolidation of brands. If those brands choose to be paid severely they will likely be independents. If they decide there is strength in unity they will likely form a league. Either way the conference model likely changes or the names of the best branded conferences become divisional names for the new league for familiarity's sake.

My posts and suggestions throughout the years have changed as the environment of college sports has changed. Pay for play could be a further alteration. When posters here in the middle of Summer want to play games making up conference alignments its good for post count and business to go along.

Right now the reality is that networks could get about 65% of the value of the PAC 12 covered with 4 to 5 schools, 70% of the value of the Big 12 covered with 3 or 4 schools, and for football a large percentage of the value of the ACC with 3 or 4 schools. The Big 10's value resides in about 7 to 8 schools for football, and about 8 to 9 schools for the SEC. So around 30 schools give or take a few gives the networks all the reach they need. Then you probably need to add half that again to keep the fans happy with the eventual records. It's why I think 48 could emerge in a new upper tier, but it if was 56 I wouldn't be surprised either.

Reshuffle them and call the Northern division of 6 to 7 schools the Big 10, and the Western division the PAC or Big 12, and the Eastern division the ACC and the Southern division the SEC. You keep the solid brands associated more or less with the regions and yet you've whittled down the schools you are paying top dollar considerably guaranteeing large numbers of eyes on each subsequent event. You keep all 4 regions involved through the playoffs until the finals.

So something like this with some kind of parameter on the number of schools is likely to happen. It's not too much removed from the P4 concept only with a much tighter grouping of schools whether that is 48 or 56 or even 60 I think is what remains to be seen.

(10-19-2020 08:40 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 05:34 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  As you reference about the background in 2011, to reopen their media contract with ESPN both the SEC and ACC needed two new markets. Moving FSU or Clemson from the ACC to the SEC doesn’t add a new market...it merely transfers an ESPN controlled media rights entity from one conference to another. There is no way that ESPN would have allowed that change...because it’s contrary to the contract terms and it doesn’t help ESPN. Therefore, FSU and Clemson are off the table.

Georgia Tech has the same in-market problem as FSU & Clemson, but GT also likely has a problem with its overall value. Specifically, GT doesn’t generate enough revenue from its commitment to athletics. The revenue issue also disqualifies Wake Forest as a potential target.

The only viable targets for the SEC would have been UNC, NC State, Duke, UVA and VT. UNC and NC State share the same board, so neither can leave without the other party’s knowledge. UNC, Duke and UVA are the core of the ACC and will only leave if the ACC is dissolving. That left Virginia Tech as the only viable candidate for the SEC.

The Hokies spent decades trying to get into the ACC and their athletics have blossomed nicely since they entered. There was a lot of political maneuvering to get them into the ACC and they likely have remaining good will towards their fellow schools. I imagine that there was pressure on the VT leadership.

Except none of this is what happened.

1. Two new markets? Yes Texas A&M was in as a no brainer and Missouri took Oklahoma's slot when Oklahoma president David Boren insisted the SEC take Oklahoma State as well. We weren't dropping A&M to land Okie State and that offer didn't satisfy the two new market requirement anyway. A&M was the top choice period. Missouri (and we were under the market footprint subscription pay model) had 6 million people and West Virginia who thought and claimed they were in the running had 1.1 million.

But that's where it gets interesting. The Dude thought the SEC was talking with the Eer's when our plane landed in WVU and we held meetings at the Greenbriar with VaTech. Just days after that happened any consideration of Va Tech at 15 and N.C. State at 16 was killed by Chapel Hill and buds.

ESPN was hoping at the time to enhance the markets of both the SEC and ACC. Virginia and North Carolina were going nowhere, and at the time neither was Maryland. The SECN was set to launch adding the 27 million potential viewers in Texas, the over 6 million viewers in Missouri and the nearly 21 million viewers in North Carolina and Virginia. Deloss Dodds had plans to move with 3 others to the ACC and one of those would have been Notre Dame. When the deal fell through some curious things happened.

2. Curious things: These are the "alleged events" talked about behind some of the scenes of action. Remember when something falls through in realignment it never happened due to potential legal entanglements.

Maryland immediately bolted for the Big 10 which had been in talks with them already. The deal for the ACC would have opened the ACCN by 2013 and the payout for the moves would have been much more lucrative than the ACC had gotten. No deal plus lots of debt and bye bye Maryland.

The SECN was suddenly going to open with 21 million fewer potential viewers and they weren't moving to 16. Slive is pissed, ESPN is pissed, Dodds is pissed, and the ACCN is shelved.

In he interim the SEC is momentarily appeased. ESPN agrees to let Clemson and Florida State move to the SEC as #15 and 16. It appears on the ESPN crawler. A friend of mine has his father's friend an ACC official confirm it. The official is worried if the conference survives at that point. Notre Dame agrees to come as partial but only if the football first schools stay put. ESPN withdraws consent and promises the SECN full carriage at the open of the SECN. They deliver.

Once Notre Dame is confirmed and Spanier gets F.S.U.'s rogue Trustee settled down F.S.U. signs the new GOR and everything settles in. The ACC is eventually supplemented 2 million per school not to have the ACCN. Louisville is brought in to replace Maryland (a nice addition in all regards).

Texas is given assurances and perks and the Big 12 GOR which preceded that of the ACC locks things in place for them.

Status quo settles in.

3. What allegedly happened was that ESPN sought to scoop the prize programs out of the remainder of the Big 12 and right out from under the noses of FOX which held 50% of the rights. Had Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and another joined the ACC to take them to 16 while keeping Maryland it would have been quite the coup with the already strong SEC picking up A&M and Mizzou and really cashing in on the footprint.

ESPN would have locked down with that one move 7 of the top 10 programs nationally and 18 of the top 25 and everything that has national draw south of Virginia / Kentucky / and Missouri.

They would have pitted the ACC against the SEC in the Sugar bowl and would have been guaranteed a bonanza in the process since they also filled in with the AAC in that large market.

But alas it didn't happen so it never was, except for the fallout which was there for all to see, Maryland's departure, Clemson and FSU announced, Boren trying to leverage OSU, Dodds comments about looking East, which they are no longer doing, and of course the coup plotters at ESPN the leadership of which was changed out shortly thereafter. When a plot fails you get rid of the conspirators and just act like nothing happened. Plausible deniability is maintained, lawsuits evaporate, and you pay through the nose to keep those in the know happy. SEC happy? check. Tobacco Road happy? check. Texas happy? check. Notre Dame happy? check. Everyone else is signed to GOR's and FOX got a big portion of the Big 10 which was ancillary and not of ESPN's doing so are they happy? check.

In retrospect it's probably a good thing it didn't happen. Why? The market footprint subscription model is history except for conference networks and they are fading fast. Branding is what pays the bills moving forward and content match ups between brands the best way to maximize it. The SEC would have been stuck with 3 new schools without that kind of branding (Missouri, N.C. State and Va Tech). Texas likely would not have been happy because minor sports travel would have been murder and they really wanted their own fiefdom anyway. Oklahoma has never known what the hell they wanted to do and would have been divided no matter what had happened. If OU moves today to the SEC or Big 10 they will have split the fan base. I think that's the main reason they stay put, and will continue to try to do so. Notre Dame wants to be independent. Florida State is way off their game. And the SEC and Big 10 are still miles ahead in revenue with fewer mouths to feed.

Texas and Oklahoma to either the SEC or Big 10 is the only move that makes everyone more money (Notre Dame for Oklahoma to the Big 10 would but they aren't moving).

4. The New Threat to All Conferences:

Pay for play passes. Streaming becomes mainstream. Content is all that is rewarded and the Big 10 and SEC see the need to move to more conference games and content additions only to maximize future revenue so the Big 12, ACC, and PAC are raided for the very top national audience draws and their strongest programs. The Big 10 and SEC eventually shed lesser contributors and we move to a consolidated league of anywhere from 36 to 48 schools. It is the inevitable path of getting paid for top brand contests.

What's more cable conference networks are going to die, likely within 3 to 5 years. They only carry the crappiest games now and even on streaming the current networks including ESPN will simply offer their time slots to the best games and everything else will be paid by the view. So the top conferences will jockey to get their schedules beefed up so that they have 10 to 16 of their schools on some prime or subprime time slot each week and have as few as possible games simply paid by the view as a game only of interest to the fan bases of the two schools (Think Vandy vs Miss State or NW vs Purdue).

There's your new future so enjoy your current conferences while you have them.

Not sure how these events fit with the timelines of conference realignment. The decision on TAMU to the SEC occurred in early September 2011 (about two weeks before the mid-September 2011 announcement of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC). The OP was asking for insights about this specific timetable...September and October 2011 (before Missouri accepted the 14th spot in the SEC).

Notre Dame’s partial deal with the ACC, Maryland’s decision to bolt to the BIG, and the FSU booster’s revolt didn’t occur until a full year later...in the fall of 2012.

When did ESPN inadvertently announce that FSU and Clemson were joining the SEC?

I think was around August or September of 2011. I remember news of them being invited being shown on the bottom line ticker during SportsCenter.

“ Clemson president James Barker told The Post and Courier in Charleston that the school has not been in touch with the SEC at all during the process. He added that the school remains "committed" to the ACC. Clemson's name originally came up in an ESPN report suggesting the league was looking to expand to 16 teams and had targeted Florida State, Missouri and Clemson. An SEC official strongly denied the report to Pete Thamel of the New York Times.”

2011 SBNation Artcle

(10-19-2020 08:40 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 05:34 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  As you reference about the background in 2011, to reopen their media contract with ESPN both the SEC and ACC needed two new markets. Moving FSU or Clemson from the ACC to the SEC doesn’t add a new market...it merely transfers an ESPN controlled media rights entity from one conference to another. There is no way that ESPN would have allowed that change...because it’s contrary to the contract terms and it doesn’t help ESPN. Therefore, FSU and Clemson are off the table.

Georgia Tech has the same in-market problem as FSU & Clemson, but GT also likely has a problem with its overall value. Specifically, GT doesn’t generate enough revenue from its commitment to athletics. The revenue issue also disqualifies Wake Forest as a potential target.

The only viable targets for the SEC would have been UNC, NC State, Duke, UVA and VT. UNC and NC State share the same board, so neither can leave without the other party’s knowledge. UNC, Duke and UVA are the core of the ACC and will only leave if the ACC is dissolving. That left Virginia Tech as the only viable candidate for the SEC.

The Hokies spent decades trying to get into the ACC and their athletics have blossomed nicely since they entered. There was a lot of political maneuvering to get them into the ACC and they likely have remaining good will towards their fellow schools. I imagine that there was pressure on the VT leadership.

Except none of this is what happened.

1. Two new markets? Yes Texas A&M was in as a no brainer and Missouri took Oklahoma's slot when Oklahoma president David Boren insisted the SEC take Oklahoma State as well. We weren't dropping A&M to land Okie State and that offer didn't satisfy the two new market requirement anyway. A&M was the top choice period. Missouri (and we were under the market footprint subscription pay model) had 6 million people and West Virginia who thought and claimed they were in the running had 1.1 million.

But that's where it gets interesting. The Dude thought the SEC was talking with the Eer's when our plane landed in WVU and we held meetings at the Greenbriar with VaTech. Just days after that happened any consideration of Va Tech at 15 and N.C. State at 16 was killed by Chapel Hill and buds.

ESPN was hoping at the time to enhance the markets of both the SEC and ACC. Virginia and North Carolina were going nowhere, and at the time neither was Maryland. The SECN was set to launch adding the 27 million potential viewers in Texas, the over 6 million viewers in Missouri and the nearly 21 million viewers in North Carolina and Virginia. Deloss Dodds had plans to move with 3 others to the ACC and one of those would have been Notre Dame. When the deal fell through some curious things happened.

2. Curious things: These are the "alleged events" talked about behind some of the scenes of action. Remember when something falls through in realignment it never happened due to potential legal entanglements.

Maryland immediately bolted for the Big 10 which had been in talks with them already. The deal for the ACC would have opened the ACCN by 2013 and the payout for the moves would have been much more lucrative than the ACC had gotten. No deal plus lots of debt and bye bye Maryland.

The SECN was suddenly going to open with 21 million fewer potential viewers and they weren't moving to 16. Slive is pissed, ESPN is pissed, Dodds is pissed, and the ACCN is shelved.

In he interim the SEC is momentarily appeased. ESPN agrees to let Clemson and Florida State move to the SEC as #15 and 16. It appears on the ESPN crawler. A friend of mine has his father's friend an ACC official confirm it. The official is worried if the conference survives at that point. Notre Dame agrees to come as partial but only if the football first schools stay put. ESPN withdraws consent and promises the SECN full carriage at the open of the SECN. They deliver.

Once Notre Dame is confirmed and Spanier gets F.S.U.'s rogue Trustee settled down F.S.U. signs the new GOR and everything settles in. The ACC is eventually supplemented 2 million per school not to have the ACCN. Louisville is brought in to replace Maryland (a nice addition in all regards).

Texas is given assurances and perks and the Big 12 GOR which preceded that of the ACC locks things in place for them.

Status quo settles in.

3. What allegedly happened was that ESPN sought to scoop the prize programs out of the remainder of the Big 12 and right out from under the noses of FOX which held 50% of the rights. Had Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and another joined the ACC to take them to 16 while keeping Maryland it would have been quite the coup with the already strong SEC picking up A&M and Mizzou and really cashing in on the footprint.

ESPN would have locked down with that one move 7 of the top 10 programs nationally and 18 of the top 25 and everything that has national draw south of Virginia / Kentucky / and Missouri.

They would have pitted the ACC against the SEC in the Sugar bowl and would have been guaranteed a bonanza in the process since they also filled in with the AAC in that large market.

But alas it didn't happen so it never was, except for the fallout which was there for all to see, Maryland's departure, Clemson and FSU announced, Boren trying to leverage OSU, Dodds comments about looking East, which they are no longer doing, and of course the coup plotters at ESPN the leadership of which was changed out shortly thereafter. When a plot fails you get rid of the conspirators and just act like nothing happened. Plausible deniability is maintained, lawsuits evaporate, and you pay through the nose to keep those in the know happy. SEC happy? check. Tobacco Road happy? check. Texas happy? check. Notre Dame happy? check. Everyone else is signed to GOR's and FOX got a big portion of the Big 10 which was ancillary and not of ESPN's doing so are they happy? check.

In retrospect it's probably a good thing it didn't happen. Why? The market footprint subscription model is history except for conference networks and they are fading fast. Branding is what pays the bills moving forward and content match ups between brands the best way to maximize it. The SEC would have been stuck with 3 new schools without that kind of branding (Missouri, N.C. State and Va Tech). Texas likely would not have been happy because minor sports travel would have been murder and they really wanted their own fiefdom anyway. Oklahoma has never known what the hell they wanted to do and would have been divided no matter what had happened. If OU moves today to the SEC or Big 10 they will have split the fan base. I think that's the main reason they stay put, and will continue to try to do so. Notre Dame wants to be independent. Florida State is way off their game. And the SEC and Big 10 are still miles ahead in revenue with fewer mouths to feed.

Texas and Oklahoma to either the SEC or Big 10 is the only move that makes everyone more money (Notre Dame for Oklahoma to the Big 10 would but they aren't moving).

4. The New Threat to All Conferences:

Pay for play passes. Streaming becomes mainstream. Content is all that is rewarded and the Big 10 and SEC see the need to move to more conference games and content additions only to maximize future revenue so the Big 12, ACC, and PAC are raided for the very top national audience draws and their strongest programs. The Big 10 and SEC eventually shed lesser contributors and we move to a consolidated league of anywhere from 36 to 48 schools. It is the inevitable path of getting paid for top brand contests.

What's more cable conference networks are going to die, likely within 3 to 5 years. They only carry the crappiest games now and even on streaming the current networks including ESPN will simply offer their time slots to the best games and everything else will be paid by the view. So the top conferences will jockey to get their schedules beefed up so that they have 10 to 16 of their schools on some prime or subprime time slot each week and have as few as possible games simply paid by the view as a game only of interest to the fan bases of the two schools (Think Vandy vs Miss State or NW vs Purdue).

There's your new future so enjoy your current conferences while you have them.

Not sure how these events fit with the timelines of conference realignment. The decision on TAMU to the SEC occurred in early September 2011 (about two weeks before the mid-September 2011 announcement of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC). The OP was asking for insights about this specific timetable...September and October 2011 (before Missouri accepted the 14th spot in the SEC).

Notre Dame’s partial deal with the ACC, Maryland’s decision to bolt to the BIG, and the FSU booster’s revolt didn’t occur until a full year later...in the fall of 2012.

When did ESPN inadvertently announce that FSU and Clemson were joining the SEC?

I think was around August or September of 2011. I remember news of them being invited being shown on the bottom line ticker during SportsCenter.

“ Clemson president James Barker told The Post and Courier in Charleston that the school has not been in touch with the SEC at all during the process. He added that the school remains "committed" to the ACC. Clemson's name originally came up in an ESPN report suggesting the league was looking to expand to 16 teams and had targeted Florida State, Missouri and Clemson. An SEC official strongly denied the report to Pete Thamel of the New York Times.”

2011 SBNation Artcle

(10-19-2020 08:40 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 05:34 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  As you reference about the background in 2011, to reopen their media contract with ESPN both the SEC and ACC needed two new markets. Moving FSU or Clemson from the ACC to the SEC doesn’t add a new market...it merely transfers an ESPN controlled media rights entity from one conference to another. There is no way that ESPN would have allowed that change...because it’s contrary to the contract terms and it doesn’t help ESPN. Therefore, FSU and Clemson are off the table.

Georgia Tech has the same in-market problem as FSU & Clemson, but GT also likely has a problem with its overall value. Specifically, GT doesn’t generate enough revenue from its commitment to athletics. The revenue issue also disqualifies Wake Forest as a potential target.

The only viable targets for the SEC would have been UNC, NC State, Duke, UVA and VT. UNC and NC State share the same board, so neither can leave without the other party’s knowledge. UNC, Duke and UVA are the core of the ACC and will only leave if the ACC is dissolving. That left Virginia Tech as the only viable candidate for the SEC.

The Hokies spent decades trying to get into the ACC and their athletics have blossomed nicely since they entered. There was a lot of political maneuvering to get them into the ACC and they likely have remaining good will towards their fellow schools. I imagine that there was pressure on the VT leadership.

Except none of this is what happened.

1. Two new markets? Yes Texas A&M was in as a no brainer and Missouri took Oklahoma's slot when Oklahoma president David Boren insisted the SEC take Oklahoma State as well. We weren't dropping A&M to land Okie State and that offer didn't satisfy the two new market requirement anyway. A&M was the top choice period. Missouri (and we were under the market footprint subscription pay model) had 6 million people and West Virginia who thought and claimed they were in the running had 1.1 million.

But that's where it gets interesting. The Dude thought the SEC was talking with the Eer's when our plane landed in WVU and we held meetings at the Greenbriar with VaTech. Just days after that happened any consideration of Va Tech at 15 and N.C. State at 16 was killed by Chapel Hill and buds.

ESPN was hoping at the time to enhance the markets of both the SEC and ACC. Virginia and North Carolina were going nowhere, and at the time neither was Maryland. The SECN was set to launch adding the 27 million potential viewers in Texas, the over 6 million viewers in Missouri and the nearly 21 million viewers in North Carolina and Virginia. Deloss Dodds had plans to move with 3 others to the ACC and one of those would have been Notre Dame. When the deal fell through some curious things happened.

2. Curious things: These are the "alleged events" talked about behind some of the scenes of action. Remember when something falls through in realignment it never happened due to potential legal entanglements.

Maryland immediately bolted for the Big 10 which had been in talks with them already. The deal for the ACC would have opened the ACCN by 2013 and the payout for the moves would have been much more lucrative than the ACC had gotten. No deal plus lots of debt and bye bye Maryland.

The SECN was suddenly going to open with 21 million fewer potential viewers and they weren't moving to 16. Slive is pissed, ESPN is pissed, Dodds is pissed, and the ACCN is shelved.

In he interim the SEC is momentarily appeased. ESPN agrees to let Clemson and Florida State move to the SEC as #15 and 16. It appears on the ESPN crawler. A friend of mine has his father's friend an ACC official confirm it. The official is worried if the conference survives at that point. Notre Dame agrees to come as partial but only if the football first schools stay put. ESPN withdraws consent and promises the SECN full carriage at the open of the SECN. They deliver.

Once Notre Dame is confirmed and Spanier gets F.S.U.'s rogue Trustee settled down F.S.U. signs the new GOR and everything settles in. The ACC is eventually supplemented 2 million per school not to have the ACCN. Louisville is brought in to replace Maryland (a nice addition in all regards).

Texas is given assurances and perks and the Big 12 GOR which preceded that of the ACC locks things in place for them.

Status quo settles in.

3. What allegedly happened was that ESPN sought to scoop the prize programs out of the remainder of the Big 12 and right out from under the noses of FOX which held 50% of the rights. Had Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and another joined the ACC to take them to 16 while keeping Maryland it would have been quite the coup with the already strong SEC picking up A&M and Mizzou and really cashing in on the footprint.

ESPN would have locked down with that one move 7 of the top 10 programs nationally and 18 of the top 25 and everything that has national draw south of Virginia / Kentucky / and Missouri.

They would have pitted the ACC against the SEC in the Sugar bowl and would have been guaranteed a bonanza in the process since they also filled in with the AAC in that large market.

But alas it didn't happen so it never was, except for the fallout which was there for all to see, Maryland's departure, Clemson and FSU announced, Boren trying to leverage OSU, Dodds comments about looking East, which they are no longer doing, and of course the coup plotters at ESPN the leadership of which was changed out shortly thereafter. When a plot fails you get rid of the conspirators and just act like nothing happened. Plausible deniability is maintained, lawsuits evaporate, and you pay through the nose to keep those in the know happy. SEC happy? check. Tobacco Road happy? check. Texas happy? check. Notre Dame happy? check. Everyone else is signed to GOR's and FOX got a big portion of the Big 10 which was ancillary and not of ESPN's doing so are they happy? check.

In retrospect it's probably a good thing it didn't happen. Why? The market footprint subscription model is history except for conference networks and they are fading fast. Branding is what pays the bills moving forward and content match ups between brands the best way to maximize it. The SEC would have been stuck with 3 new schools without that kind of branding (Missouri, N.C. State and Va Tech). Texas likely would not have been happy because minor sports travel would have been murder and they really wanted their own fiefdom anyway. Oklahoma has never known what the hell they wanted to do and would have been divided no matter what had happened. If OU moves today to the SEC or Big 10 they will have split the fan base. I think that's the main reason they stay put, and will continue to try to do so. Notre Dame wants to be independent. Florida State is way off their game. And the SEC and Big 10 are still miles ahead in revenue with fewer mouths to feed.

Texas and Oklahoma to either the SEC or Big 10 is the only move that makes everyone more money (Notre Dame for Oklahoma to the Big 10 would but they aren't moving).

4. The New Threat to All Conferences:

Pay for play passes. Streaming becomes mainstream. Content is all that is rewarded and the Big 10 and SEC see the need to move to more conference games and content additions only to maximize future revenue so the Big 12, ACC, and PAC are raided for the very top national audience draws and their strongest programs. The Big 10 and SEC eventually shed lesser contributors and we move to a consolidated league of anywhere from 36 to 48 schools. It is the inevitable path of getting paid for top brand contests.

What's more cable conference networks are going to die, likely within 3 to 5 years. They only carry the crappiest games now and even on streaming the current networks including ESPN will simply offer their time slots to the best games and everything else will be paid by the view. So the top conferences will jockey to get their schedules beefed up so that they have 10 to 16 of their schools on some prime or subprime time slot each week and have as few as possible games simply paid by the view as a game only of interest to the fan bases of the two schools (Think Vandy vs Miss State or NW vs Purdue).

There's your new future so enjoy your current conferences while you have them.

Not sure how these events fit with the timelines of conference realignment. The decision on TAMU to the SEC occurred in early September 2011 (about two weeks before the mid-September 2011 announcement of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC). The OP was asking for insights about this specific timetable...September and October 2011 (before Missouri accepted the 14th spot in the SEC).

Notre Dame’s partial deal with the ACC, Maryland’s decision to bolt to the BIG, and the FSU booster’s revolt didn’t occur until a full year later...in the fall of 2012.

When did ESPN inadvertently announce that FSU and Clemson were joining the SEC?

I think was around August or September of 2011. I remember news of them being invited being shown on the bottom line ticker during SportsCenter.

“ Clemson president James Barker told The Post and Courier in Charleston that the school has not been in touch with the SEC at all during the process. He added that the school remains "committed" to the ACC. Clemson's name originally came up in an ESPN report suggesting the league was looking to expand to 16 teams and had targeted Florida State, Missouri and Clemson. An SEC official strongly denied the report to Pete Thamel of the New York Times.”

2011 SBNation Artclev

(10-19-2020 08:17 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 04:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  There were 2 tense months after the announcement of TAMU before we all learned that Missouri was going to the SEC too and that WVU’s consolation prize was a spot in the Big 12. (TCU had already been announced as TAMU’s replacement)

Somewhere in between the ACC tried to bolster their numbers by inviting Syracuse and Pitt.

I’m still shocked that no one in the ACC broke ranks and pursued the SEC.

State politics would have made it hard for VT, UVA, NC St, or UNC to make that move without a package deal in place but I’m still shocked that Florida St, Clemson, GT, or Miami didn’t make an attempt to jump—particularly Florida St and Clemson who are football first schools and have the feel of an SEC institution far more than AAU midwestern state land grant Missouri.

I’ve read speculation that the SEC needed two new markets to get their media rights reopened for negotiation...

This one is fairly easy. First, you have to understand that while the Big Ten may want to destroy the ACC, the SEC doesn't. More than half of the teams in those two conferences used to be mates in the Southern Conference - they are like cousins (no inbreeding jokes, please!). Second, the SEC really did want to reopen their contract so they could launch the SECN, and that required two new markets, which took Miami, FSU, GT and Clemson off the table. I have sources which indicate that the SEC did meet with Virginia Tech, but the Hokies weren't comfortable even trying to leave the ACC after all that political maneuvering to get IN. Not sure what conversations were held with UVA, UNC and/or NC State (although I've heard rumors that UNC and UVA were talked to at the very least, and NC State is "common knowledge").

Synopsis: the SEC couldn't get the ACC teams they wanted so they took 2 from the Big XII.

I’m not suggesting that the SEC wanted to deliberately kill the ACC but I think it’s worth noting that if your instate rival is getting $20M more than you from the same media partner that it makes a whole lot more sense to be in their conference than the one you’re in.

(10-19-2020 09:27 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 08:40 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 05:34 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  As you reference about the background in 2011, to reopen their media contract with ESPN both the SEC and ACC needed two new markets. Moving FSU or Clemson from the ACC to the SEC doesn’t add a new market...it merely transfers an ESPN controlled media rights entity from one conference to another. There is no way that ESPN would have allowed that change...because it’s contrary to the contract terms and it doesn’t help ESPN. Therefore, FSU and Clemson are off the table.

Georgia Tech has the same in-market problem as FSU & Clemson, but GT also likely has a problem with its overall value. Specifically, GT doesn’t generate enough revenue from its commitment to athletics. The revenue issue also disqualifies Wake Forest as a potential target.

The only viable targets for the SEC would have been UNC, NC State, Duke, UVA and VT. UNC and NC State share the same board, so neither can leave without the other party’s knowledge. UNC, Duke and UVA are the core of the ACC and will only leave if the ACC is dissolving. That left Virginia Tech as the only viable candidate for the SEC.

The Hokies spent decades trying to get into the ACC and their athletics have blossomed nicely since they entered. There was a lot of political maneuvering to get them into the ACC and they likely have remaining good will towards their fellow schools. I imagine that there was pressure on the VT leadership.

Except none of this is what happened.

1. Two new markets? Yes Texas A&M was in as a no brainer and Missouri took Oklahoma's slot when Oklahoma president David Boren insisted the SEC take Oklahoma State as well. We weren't dropping A&M to land Okie State and that offer didn't satisfy the two new market requirement anyway. A&M was the top choice period. Missouri (and we were under the market footprint subscription pay model) had 6 million people and West Virginia who thought and claimed they were in the running had 1.1 million.

But that's where it gets interesting. The Dude thought the SEC was talking with the Eer's when our plane landed in WVU and we held meetings at the Greenbriar with VaTech. Just days after that happened any consideration of Va Tech at 15 and N.C. State at 16 was killed by Chapel Hill and buds.

ESPN was hoping at the time to enhance the markets of both the SEC and ACC. Virginia and North Carolina were going nowhere, and at the time neither was Maryland. The SECN was set to launch adding the 27 million potential viewers in Texas, the over 6 million viewers in Missouri and the nearly 21 million viewers in North Carolina and Virginia. Deloss Dodds had plans to move with 3 others to the ACC and one of those would have been Notre Dame. When the deal fell through some curious things happened.

2. Curious things: These are the "alleged events" talked about behind some of the scenes of action. Remember when something falls through in realignment it never happened due to potential legal entanglements.

Maryland immediately bolted for the Big 10 which had been in talks with them already. The deal for the ACC would have opened the ACCN by 2013 and the payout for the moves would have been much more lucrative than the ACC had gotten. No deal plus lots of debt and bye bye Maryland.

The SECN was suddenly going to open with 21 million fewer potential viewers and they weren't moving to 16. Slive is pissed, ESPN is pissed, Dodds is pissed, and the ACCN is shelved.

In he interim the SEC is momentarily appeased. ESPN agrees to let Clemson and Florida State move to the SEC as #15 and 16. It appears on the ESPN crawler. A friend of mine has his father's friend an ACC official confirm it. The official is worried if the conference survives at that point. Notre Dame agrees to come as partial but only if the football first schools stay put. ESPN withdraws consent and promises the SECN full carriage at the open of the SECN. They deliver.

Once Notre Dame is confirmed and Spanier gets F.S.U.'s rogue Trustee settled down F.S.U. signs the new GOR and everything settles in. The ACC is eventually supplemented 2 million per school not to have the ACCN. Louisville is brought in to replace Maryland (a nice addition in all regards).

Texas is given assurances and perks and the Big 12 GOR which preceded that of the ACC locks things in place for them.

Status quo settles in.

3. What allegedly happened was that ESPN sought to scoop the prize programs out of the remainder of the Big 12 and right out from under the noses of FOX which held 50% of the rights. Had Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and another joined the ACC to take them to 16 while keeping Maryland it would have been quite the coup with the already strong SEC picking up A&M and Mizzou and really cashing in on the footprint.

ESPN would have locked down with that one move 7 of the top 10 programs nationally and 18 of the top 25 and everything that has national draw south of Virginia / Kentucky / and Missouri.

They would have pitted the ACC against the SEC in the Sugar bowl and would have been guaranteed a bonanza in the process since they also filled in with the AAC in that large market.

But alas it didn't happen so it never was, except for the fallout which was there for all to see, Maryland's departure, Clemson and FSU announced, Boren trying to leverage OSU, Dodds comments about looking East, which they are no longer doing, and of course the coup plotters at ESPN the leadership of which was changed out shortly thereafter. When a plot fails you get rid of the conspirators and just act like nothing happened. Plausible deniability is maintained, lawsuits evaporate, and you pay through the nose to keep those in the know happy. SEC happy? check. Tobacco Road happy? check. Texas happy? check. Notre Dame happy? check. Everyone else is signed to GOR's and FOX got a big portion of the Big 10 which was ancillary and not of ESPN's doing so are they happy? check.

In retrospect it's probably a good thing it didn't happen. Why? The market footprint subscription model is history except for conference networks and they are fading fast. Branding is what pays the bills moving forward and content match ups between brands the best way to maximize it. The SEC would have been stuck with 3 new schools without that kind of branding (Missouri, N.C. State and Va Tech). Texas likely would not have been happy because minor sports travel would have been murder and they really wanted their own fiefdom anyway. Oklahoma has never known what the hell they wanted to do and would have been divided no matter what had happened. If OU moves today to the SEC or Big 10 they will have split the fan base. I think that's the main reason they stay put, and will continue to try to do so. Notre Dame wants to be independent. Florida State is way off their game. And the SEC and Big 10 are still miles ahead in revenue with fewer mouths to feed.

Texas and Oklahoma to either the SEC or Big 10 is the only move that makes everyone more money (Notre Dame for Oklahoma to the Big 10 would but they aren't moving).

4. The New Threat to All Conferences:

Pay for play passes. Streaming becomes mainstream. Content is all that is rewarded and the Big 10 and SEC see the need to move to more conference games and content additions only to maximize future revenue so the Big 12, ACC, and PAC are raided for the very top national audience draws and their strongest programs. The Big 10 and SEC eventually shed lesser contributors and we move to a consolidated league of anywhere from 36 to 48 schools. It is the inevitable path of getting paid for top brand contests.

What's more cable conference networks are going to die, likely within 3 to 5 years. They only carry the crappiest games now and even on streaming the current networks including ESPN will simply offer their time slots to the best games and everything else will be paid by the view. So the top conferences will jockey to get their schedules beefed up so that they have 10 to 16 of their schools on some prime or subprime time slot each week and have as few as possible games simply paid by the view as a game only of interest to the fan bases of the two schools (Think Vandy vs Miss State or NW vs Purdue).

There's your new future so enjoy your current conferences while you have them.

Not sure how these events fit with the timelines of conference realignment. The decision on TAMU to the SEC occurred in early September 2011 (about two weeks before the mid-September 2011 announcement of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC). The OP was asking for insights about this specific timetable...September and October 2011 (before Missouri accepted the 14th spot in the SEC).

Notre Dame’s partial deal with the ACC, Maryland’s decision to bolt to the BIG, and the FSU booster’s revolt didn’t occur until a full year later...in the fall of 2012.

When did ESPN inadvertently announce that FSU and Clemson were joining the SEC?

I think was around August or September of 2011. I remember news of them being invited being shown on the bottom line ticker during SportsCenter.

“ Clemson president James Barker told The Post and Courier in Charleston that the school has not been in touch with the SEC at all during the process. He added that the school remains "committed" to the ACC. Clemson's name originally came up in an ESPN report suggesting the league was looking to expand to 16 teams and had targeted Florida State, Missouri and Clemson. An SEC official strongly denied the report to Pete Thamel of the New York Times.”

2011 SBNation Artcle

The deal with all of this is that what happens behind the scenes isn't reported for months to the public unless there is a sudden event. The parties involved always want to frame events. 2010 was the beginning of most of the machinations behind the scenes and they continued in earnest through 2011. Events happening in 2012, as they were reported, were largely already decided well before the announcements. For instance Mizzou2theSEC had been started by late 2010 to early 2011 and talks had gone on with Missouri long before there was public acknowledgement of them.

The problem when everyone goes back to try to create timelines out of the linked articles is that beat writers are used to gloss some details, misdirect others, and they are the last to know and only get the sanitized framed storyline. All of that is by design to keep precise timelines undiscernible because that covers lawsuits for schools, conferences and networks. If a deal doesn't happen it is usually not mentioned, or if snippets were known the events are denied, like Va Tech talking to the SEC, which was as indicated part of a larger deal that failed.

Maryland had talked to the SEC in 2011 and was likely doing due diligence for the Big 10 proposal but they didn't get serious until the deal fell through. These things happen all of the time. Texas has been in talks with the SEC since '89. Most of the time they are just figuring out their market worth, picking details about what other schools are doing and how other conferences are handling things. None of this is news as it happens all of the time. Failed deals are just that. Nobody owns what didn't happen, but it doesn't mean it wasn't attempted or that intent and motives were not at work in the attempts. Failed deals are revealing of what is possible and what probably isn't.

I imagine Texas keeps tabs mostly for due diligence but also to keep possibilities current.

The typical NCAA move takes ~ 2 years. Fast ones can happen in ~ 1 but are not common. The school and the conference involved share mutual interest. Preliminary numbers are exchanged. If the school remains interested they solicit an application. If the conference is interested they send one whether asked for or not. If the application is returned the presidents of the conference receiving the application meet and discuss it. Sometimes a prospectus is returned giving the applying school a reasonable assessment of what programs they might be required to offer, facilities requirements, etc., so they can more accurately assess the cost of a move. If they return a plan to meet requirements an informal vote is held by the presidents. If 3/4's of them are favorable the application is accepted and the school is notified. The vote still isn't formal. But teams of attorneys from the conference meet teams of attorneys from the school and they start working out the nitty gritty details. (Nobody in the press or public knows a damn thing about any of it at this point.) When the two parties are satisfied a formal vote is held. In the SEC that vote will be unanimous though abstentions are permitted. Each conference has its own protocol at this point in the process. After the formal vote the official invitation is issued and a public release is likely given. Nobody knows that the process is a year and a half old and the public thinks it just happened. A formal joining date is picked where the presser can be held and that's it. Frequently the first play in the new conference will be the following year.

When the networks are involved it is usually in the dating phase where mutual interest is revealed, and again at the informal vote when the network provides a firm estimate on how much the addition of this particular school will add to the value of the conference and more importantly the payout to each conference member. The network will be involved again at the presser.

2010 to 12 was an odd time. There were no GOR's initially. Networks were looking to acquire rights and build large markets. They not only paired up interested parties but likely paired up interested conferences. I would call this conference sculpting and it was made possible because the networks gave the valuations and so could motivate movement with money. It is why I said 8 years ago that the college football world was a cottage industry that corporations were raiding and molding into a product from which they could more efficiently profit. I heard all kinds of things on the SEC end, but the work of Clay Travis and Mr. SEC was in advance to promote and sell to the SEC fanbases moves that they hadn't anticipated, Va Tech and N.C. State. A&M to the SEC had been in the works since late 1990 and remained an on and off venture until the timing was right for the break. Arkansas and Broyles helped to make it possible with their move in '92.

I fully believe things are afoot now, but what exactly I haven't heard, in part because I've lost sources to retirement, and in part because I don't think the presidents and commissioners really know what's coming either. They are certainly more clued in than we are, but lawsuits have to be resolved, NIL has to be accommodated and ESPN and others have to figure out their future marketing strategies. But I do know there is a whole lot of behind the scenes talk, not so much about expansion, but about change in general. Maybe we know soon. I do know that many thought that this year would be a great one in which to work on these issues since the phone lines are open, business at and between schools is curtailed due to COVID, and the media hasn't exactly been snooping. So we'll wait and see. I'd say things will start popping up as trial balloons to check the public reaction in stories by next Spring and Summer, and if something is afoot the end of next fall and during the 2021 season the initial storylines will circulate indicating things have been worked out already in some cases, and then by Fall of 2022 we should know something. That leaves the 2023-4 season to be played prior to GOR expirations. So formal announcements a year out from the official move fits the timeline just about right.

And if it happens go back and link the released information by beat writers and then try to make sense out of what you just saw happen. It will be an education to have so many puzzling angles and facts omitted, some convincing rumors which may have some evidence completely denied, and within a month or so a total gloss piece to put out what will become the official storyline.

(10-19-2020 08:36 PM)esayem Wrote:  JR, I’ve read you preaching 4 conferences for what seems like years. Some model where there is no room for lower tiered programs to upgrade. I’ve always said that there is much more likely to be a scenario where there is no breakaway, but programs will make money independently. Whether that means they go Indy or they get rid of conference packages.

If you’re telling me you’re changing your prediction, then fine.

Back to the future. I would like that very much. Bye, bye conferences.

If true, it looks like ND had the right idea the entire time.

(10-19-2020 10:22 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 08:36 PM)esayem Wrote:  JR, I’ve read you preaching 4 conferences for what seems like years. Some model where there is no room for lower tiered programs to upgrade. I’ve always said that there is much more likely to be a scenario where there is no breakaway, but programs will make money independently. Whether that means they go Indy or they get rid of conference packages.

If you’re telling me you’re changing your prediction, then fine.

Back to the future. I would like that very much. Bye, bye conferences.

If true, it looks like ND had the right idea the entire time.

The idea is good, but the implementation is next to impossible if a school is trying to provide quality inventory to a broadcast partner.

Independence only works when there are a lot of independents.
As the broadcast dollars have gotten bigger, most University Presidents have opted for the security of long term income that a conference can provide.
Notre Dame has a unique situation with NBC and is willing to put up with sub-standard broadcasts with a history of the worst college football announcers ever stuck in front of a camera to remain swimming upstream. The reality is that Notre Dame's viewership numbers aren't as good as they could be as demographics continue to shift and at some point they too will be forced to find the safe harbor of conference membership.