(10-20-2020 07:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 07:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 02:06 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  And again... 'excess deaths' is a statistical formula essentially based on a 5 yr moving average. If we have a bad flu season, excess deaths will usually be higher. If we have a soft one for a few years in a row, it will depress the expectations so that a return to 'normal' years will appear as 'excess deaths'.

Bottom line is that people are using relatively complex and specific measurements to imply relatively simple and sometimes unrelated causes. 'Excess deaths' sounds pretty straight forward, but obviously anticipating a baseline of deaths isn't an exact science... and whether people want to accept it or not... the lack of access to mental health... the loss of jobs... the stresses of being sequestered etc etc etc all lead to the same 'excess deaths'. Of course, COVID is a cause as well, just like Swine was or Ebola... they were certainly not unexpected deaths... but if we're attributing 200,000 deaths to Covid and we have 200,000 'excess deaths'... and yet we can point to 10,000 deaths above those same expectations caused by delays in care or suicides or anything else, then the numbers mean something else.

But it is pretty damn close to being predictable.

The simple point is that the fluctuation in death totals from year to year is normally +/- 0.2% and in more "extreme" years it's been about 1%.

This year it's looking to be a 10% increase.

Hmmm. What is different about this year?

Occam's Razor.

Lockdowns. Occam's Razor. There is a wealth of data over decades that unemployment and isolation kills.

This...

Article from back in May putting teeth to this point. Saying what many of us have said and continue to say. The continued push to keep shutting down or go back to shutting down the economy due to virus fears is akin to leaving the tourniquet on after the soldier has been taken off the battlefield, now in the hospital and the medical staff sits back and watches his limb die. Effective means to stop the blood loss in the interim, but not a long term solution!

The COVID-19 shutdown will cost Americans millions of years of life

I don't think that CV-19 is a hoax. But the democrats have seized on it for political gain, in their, "never let a crisis go to waste," mentality. And the politicization is a very cruel hoax played on the USA by the democrats.

And as with the last 30 years, and the reason for Trump's election, is that the Democrats continue to give the middle finger to blue collar workers. They don't care if they don't have jobs. They can "learn to code." Then they can work from home while dealing with 3 or 4 kids pretending to do online school. They don't even care if they die. That was Obama's legacy. The only time in our history other than the 1918 pandemic or a war that average life expectancy declined. And it was heavily concentrated in that group.

The Democrats have no compassion and refuse to get outside their bubble where real people live.

(10-21-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  And as with the last 30 years, and the reason for Trump's election, is that the Democrats continue to give the middle finger to blue collar workers. They don't care if they don't have jobs. They can "learn to code." Then they can work from home while dealing with 3 or 4 kids pretending to do online school. They don't even care if they die. That was Obama's legacy. The only time in our history other than the 1918 pandemic or a war that average life expectancy declined. And it was heavily concentrated in that group.

The Democrats have no compassion and refuse to get outside their bubble where real people live.

Well they claim to represent the poor and disenfranchised, but are almost exclusively made up of the world's wealthiest people at the top. If the poor and disenfranchised would stop and think about who their backers are, the international sweatshops they operate, the surveillance control they have over everyone's lives, and how they pit the the poor and disenfranchised against the middle class, who seldom does harm to the poor or disenfranchised and actually gives to the charities who help them, who don't own companies that claim they are trying to wipe out "systemic racism within their organizations" which is tantamount to admitting they actually have it, then they might realize that their so called benefactors are really just using them to attack and steal from the only allies they will ever have, the middle class.

This is why the top Democrats have no compassion. The super wealthy have always thought they were above the law, that common people were a lower species that deserved servitude, and at the core they have always been the most racist, classist, and closed group. But as long as the masses get some free trinkets and their inadequacies are focused on the middle class, the pitting against one another of the two groups that need each other the most will continue.

(10-21-2020 11:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-21-2020 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  And as with the last 30 years, and the reason for Trump's election, is that the Democrats continue to give the middle finger to blue collar workers. They don't care if they don't have jobs. They can "learn to code." Then they can work from home while dealing with 3 or 4 kids pretending to do online school. They don't even care if they die. That was Obama's legacy. The only time in our history other than the 1918 pandemic or a war that average life expectancy declined. And it was heavily concentrated in that group.

The Democrats have no compassion and refuse to get outside their bubble where real people live.

Well they claim to represent the poor and disenfranchised, but are almost exclusively made up of the world's wealthiest people at the top. If the poor and disenfranchised would stop and think about who their backers are, the international sweatshops they operate, the surveillance control they have over everyone's lives, and how they pit the the poor and disenfranchised against the middle class, who seldom does harm to the poor or disenfranchised and actually gives to the charities who help them, who don't own companies that claim they are trying to wipe out "systemic racism within their organizations" which is tantamount to admitting they actually have it, then they might realize that their so called benefactors are really just using them to attack and steal from the only allies they will ever have, the middle class.

This is why the top Democrats have no compassion. The super wealthy have always thought they were above the law, that common people were a lower species that deserved servitude, and at the core they have always been the most racist, classist, and closed group. But as long as the masses get some free trinkets and their inadequacies are focused on the middle class, the pitting against one another of the two groups that need each other the most will continue.

XACLY!

toss 'em a bone....

it's sad how too many do not understand manipulation/slavery vs. self worth...

#irony

(10-20-2020 07:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  But it is pretty damn close to being predictable.

The simple point is that the fluctuation in death totals from year to year is normally +/- 0.2% and in more "extreme" years it's been about 1%.

This year it's looking to be a 10% increase.

Hmmm. What is different about this year?

Occam's Razor.

There are lots of ways to look at numbers, so it's easy to draw different conclusions from the same data. I don't think we're really saying different things.

Here is how I look at it, and consistent with the 'expected deaths calculation' (if you look into the CDC methodology).

Annual variances of 50k+ are not that unusual... and yet there are also 5 yr periods where the 'expected deaths' would be declining and then followed by a 50k+ rise... so 'expected over actual' of approaching 100k, without a pandemic.

Now let's look at flu deaths.

Our lowest estimate (these are estimates because unlike COVID, flu can be suspected but not confirmed thus not hit the death cert) in the past 10 years was 12k deaths during the 2011-2012 season (winter 2011). The HIGHEST estimate during that period was 61,000 in winter 2017... so a variance of 50k, just in flu... which is a small number of the total deaths in the US... far behind Cancer and Heart disease.

But before we go with that, we should also look at the 95% confidence rates since these are estimates. the 95% confidence rate for 2017 is a range from 46k-95k... so the number could have been more like 85k, not 50k, again, just from Flu.

Consistent with that, Flu in winter 2019 is estimated to be VERY light at 22k... the second lowest in the past 10 years and 40k off from the high just 2 seasons earlier. The 2013-2018 5yr average would ave been very high, so 2019-2020 would have been a SIGNIFICANT under-performer vis a vis the 'expected' number... and that is how the cdc does it... by the underlying components and not simply the aggregate.

And now consider that flu season is basically contracting the disease in late October until around February, meaning most flu deaths for 'season 2019-20' likely come in 2020... weeks to months after contracting the disease. I don't trust this estimate because this was precisely the time frame when we were unaware of COVID/just learning about it...

My ultimate point being that if we're 200k over 'expected deaths' up to 100k of that could be annual variance in flu and other events unrelated to COVID. I also think a meaningful number of those deaths could be from 'other causes', often related to job losses or other results of the shut down.... and not Covid... which I THINK is your point.

Without a Pandemic, without a shut down... the 'expected' deaths should have been +25k from last year... but the RANGE on that number could have been up to +75k from last year. Throw in the shut down stresses plus loss of access to care for many and that number is potentially double that... so perhaps 150k. There's likely been a reduction in traffic deaths, but a rise in 'riot' deaths or other criminal activity... and then throw the Pandemic in on top of that.

Too many people simply see numbers that somewhat align... actual - expected of +/- 200k and 200k reported Covid deaths and they assume that everything else was constant. That idea is demonstrably not true. EVERY component has changed... and if we saw that death from all sorts of URI diseases that could look like COVID but aren't like FLU are 'down' (like we're seeing for FLU) then it very clearly implies that SOME of those COVID deaths are actually likely misassigned flu.

(10-21-2020 11:58 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(10-20-2020 07:15 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  But it is pretty damn close to being predictable.

The simple point is that the fluctuation in death totals from year to year is normally +/- 0.2% and in more "extreme" years it's been about 1%.

This year it's looking to be a 10% increase.

Hmmm. What is different about this year?

Occam's Razor.

There are lots of ways to look at numbers, so it's easy to draw different conclusions from the same data. I don't think we're really saying different things.

Here is how I look at it, and consistent with the 'expected deaths calculation' (if you look into the CDC methodology).

Annual variances of 50k+ are not that unusual... and yet there are also 5 yr periods where the 'expected deaths' would be declining and then followed by a 50k+ rise... so 'expected over actual' of approaching 100k, without a pandemic.

Now let's look at flu deaths.

Our lowest estimate (these are estimates because unlike COVID, flu can be suspected but not confirmed thus not hit the death cert) in the past 10 years was 12k deaths during the 2011-2012 season (winter 2011). The HIGHEST estimate during that period was 61,000 in winter 2017... so a variance of 50k, just in flu... which is a small number of the total deaths in the US... far behind Cancer and Heart disease.

But before we go with that, we should also look at the 95% confidence rates since these are estimates. the 95% confidence rate for 2017 is a range from 46k-95k... so the number could have been more like 85k, not 50k, again, just from Flu.

Consistent with that, Flu in winter 2019 is estimated to be VERY light at 22k... the second lowest in the past 10 years and 40k off from the high just 2 seasons earlier. The 2013-2018 5yr average would ave been very high, so 2019-2020 would have been a SIGNIFICANT under-performer vis a vis the 'expected' number... and that is how the cdc does it... by the underlying components and not simply the aggregate.

And now consider that flu season is basically contracting the disease in late October until around February, meaning most flu deaths for 'season 2019-20' likely come in 2020... weeks to months after contracting the disease. I don't trust this estimate because this was precisely the time frame when we were unaware of COVID/just learning about it...

My ultimate point being that if we're 200k over 'expected deaths' up to 100k of that could be annual variance in flu and other events unrelated to COVID. I also think a meaningful number of those deaths could be from 'other causes', often related to job losses or other results of the shut down.... and not Covid... which I THINK is your point.

Without a Pandemic, without a shut down... the 'expected' deaths should have been +25k from last year... but the RANGE on that number could have been up to +75k from last year. Throw in the shut down stresses plus loss of access to care for many and that number is potentially double that... so perhaps 150k. There's likely been a reduction in traffic deaths, but a rise in 'riot' deaths or other criminal activity... and then throw the Pandemic in on top of that.

Too many people simply see numbers that somewhat align... actual - expected of +/- 200k and 200k reported Covid deaths and they assume that everything else was constant. That idea is demonstrably not true. EVERY component has changed... and if we saw that death from all sorts of URI diseases that could look like COVID but aren't like FLU are 'down' (like we're seeing for FLU) then it very clearly implies that SOME of those COVID deaths are actually likely misassigned flu.

I was reading the country, and New York state in particular, were having an awful flu year before the pandemic overtook it.

The 10 year average for flu deaths is 40,000 according to the CDC. And there are still a handful of states that have fewer Covid deaths than typical flu deaths.

Covid death classifications this comes from Milwaukee