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Trafalgar Group Polling Explained....
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CardinalJim Offline
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Trafalgar Group Polling Explained....
“ The Trafalgar Group is the polling firm that came to national political notoriety four years ago when they correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in both Michigan and Pennsylvania and were the only survey research firm to do so. Since that time, they have forecast at least four other wins when the active polling community was arriving at opposite conclusions.”

“ Routinely, Trafalgar’s data shows President Trump in better position than most pollsters because they attempt to quantify what is termed the “shy Trump voter,” i.e., those who are actually voting for the incumbent but won’t admit it to a pollster. In most cases, the Trafalgar calculations, derived from a proprietary algorithmic formula, have been reliably accurate.”

“Though the overwhelming preponderance of data is predicting a clear victory for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race, it is important to note that President Trump is actually running slightly ahead of his 2016 pace in the three Great Lakes states that he barely carried in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Whether or not the actual votes fall in line for the President the way they did in 2016 remains to be seen, and while several underlying factors suggest they won’t, it is clear, however, that the ensuing Trafalgar Group data will be viewed in a more serious manner.”

https://texasscorecard.com/commentary/el...ar-effect/
10-17-2020 08:03 PM
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Bronco'14 Offline
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RE: Trafalgar Group Polling Explained....
How do you try to calculate the "shy Trump" voter? What variable do you use?
10-17-2020 08:07 PM
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domer1978 Online
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RE: Trafalgar Group Polling Explained....
(10-17-2020 08:07 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  How do you try to calculate the "shy Trump" voter? What variable do you use?

Offer them cookies and hope they tell you which way they are voting.

The shy Trump voter is 100% real. But how you measure it I have no clue. I have andectol evidence but I can't extrapolate it to mean anything. I personally know a few people at my job who are but for fear of there job will say nothing.
10-17-2020 08:22 PM
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rath v2.0 Offline
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RE: Trafalgar Group Polling Explained....
(10-17-2020 08:07 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  How do you try to calculate the "shy Trump" voter? What variable do you use?

He has a few questions that showed the correlation between what regular polls were reporting and what he was finding (accurately).

Example: After asking who they were voting for he asked who they thought their neighbors were voting for...Showed a big disparity...these odd questions seemed to give a more accurate line on the final outcomes in MI and PA in 2016.. There were others I heard him discuss in an interview and I saw stats years back but I don’t recall them off the top of my head.
10-17-2020 08:50 PM
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UofMstateU Online
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Post: #5
RE: Trafalgar Group Polling Explained....
Its not just the hidden Trump voter. Republican voters in general are missing because republicans dont participate in polls. This is seen even in the VNS exit polls. VNS exit polls said that Gore, Kerry, and Clinton won their elections which they actually lost.
10-17-2020 09:54 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Online
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RE: Trafalgar Group Polling Explained....
Are you going to answer a polling call and be honest? What happens if the pollster company releases you name to the mob? You could lose your job, have you business boycotted etc. Notice how nobody shows up for Biden rallies? The left wants to kill people, not show up for Biden rallies.
10-17-2020 10:43 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #7
RE: Trafalgar Group Polling Explained....
(10-17-2020 10:43 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Are you going to answer a polling call and be honest? What happens if the pollster company releases you name to the mob? You could lose your job, have you business boycotted etc. Notice how nobody shows up for Biden rallies? The left wants to kill people, not show up for Biden rallies.

Exactly. There is zero up side to revealing your a Trump supporter to some stranger on the phone a period of woke mobs and cancel culture.
10-17-2020 11:55 PM
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Fo Shizzle Offline
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RE: Trafalgar Group Polling Explained....
(10-17-2020 11:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-17-2020 10:43 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Are you going to answer a polling call and be honest? What happens if the pollster company releases you name to the mob? You could lose your job, have you business boycotted etc. Notice how nobody shows up for Biden rallies? The left wants to kill people, not show up for Biden rallies.

Exactly. There is zero up side to revealing your a Trump supporter to some stranger on the phone a period of woke mobs and cancel culture.

Ive only been polled one time in my life...a few weeks ago...I lied to the pollster and said I supported Biden. Id bet Im not alone. I wonder if these polls have an algorithm that includes the chance that the person being polled is untruthful?
10-18-2020 08:17 AM
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