Smart people that know how to do real analytical analysis work at JP Morgan...Again certifies my belief that the popular vote will be close and it will come down to battleground states.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/vote...e-jpmorgan

The 2020 presidential race may be closer than the polls suggest, according to an analysis of voter registration trends by JPMorgan Chase.

Changes in the number of voters registered to each of the major parties have proven to be a significant variable in election outcomes in the past, according to strategists at the New York-based bank, which analyzed trends in some of the battleground states that will be crucial to an electoral college victory.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 9.2 points nationally, according to an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, but his lead is at a tighter 4.9 points in hotly contested states.

Four years ago, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also outstripped Trump in national polling and won the popular vote by nearly 3 million, only to lose the electoral college, where she took just 227 votes to Trump’s 304.

This year’s campaign may be won or lost in some of the same battlegrounds as that race, which has made them focal points for politicians, pollsters and observers alike.

In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.

JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.

Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.

JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail.

While voter registration is encouraging for Trump and the GOP, it is “only one variable in determining the election outcome,” the JPMorgan team wrote, noting that the results should not be used to predict a state’s outcome.

A number of other issues that don’t show up in the polls also offer encouraging signs for Trump, according to a Wells Fargo report released last month.

The firm noted Trump outperformed the polls in all of the key battleground states in 2016 and also suggested his recent Supreme Court nomination, gun ownership trends and a stronger backing from African-American voters are all playing into Trump’s hands.

Off-campus learning due to COVID-19 and a smaller independent vote also favor the president, the analysts said.

I don't think it will be a landslide in either direction. DJT has won some people over from the right who couldn't vote for him due to personality and lack of experience. Joe is more likeable than hill dog and will get the lefties who sat out last time because they couldn't hold their nose and vote for her.

I think this election will be closer than 2016

(10-15-2020 02:32 PM)bobdizole Wrote:  I don't think it will be a landslide in either direction. DJT has won some people over from the right who couldn't vote for him due to personality and lack of experience. Joe is more likeable than hill dog and will get the lefties who sat out last time because they couldn't hold their nose and vote for her.

I think this election will be closer than 2016

Agreed. I do think think both the popular and electorate will be closer than '16 even though that sounds goofy. I could be wrong though.

In 2016, Trump benefited tremendously from the revelation 11 days before the election that Hillary was under investigation again by the FBI.

I wouldn't count on that happening again. Joe is staying in his basement specifically so that he can avoid any last minute gaffes.

(10-16-2020 07:33 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  In 2016, Trump benefited tremendously from the revelation 11 days before the election that Hillary was under investigation again by the FBI.

I wouldn't count on that happening again. Joe is staying in his basement specifically so that he can avoid any last minute gaffes.

Biden may literally also be under investigation by the FBI.

(10-16-2020 07:33 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  In 2016, Trump benefited tremendously from the revelation 11 days before the election that Hillary was under investigation again by the FBI.

I've seen this alleged on several occasions, but I've never seen any factual evidence to back it up. Do we have any actual data as to how many people changed their vote over this, and in what states?

As for me personally, the action that hurt Hillary more in my mind was when Comey recited that elements of several federal felonies committed by her, and then recommended not prosecuting her for any of them because of difficulty proving intent. Two problems with that, 1) intent is not a requisite element of many of those felonies, and 2) there was actually ample evidence to prove intent. I think this suggestion of two standards--one for she and one for me (to go grammatically incorrect for the purpose of rhyme)--hurt her more with blue-collar veterans than did the resumption of the probe. And that's who killed her in the swing states she lost. I was actually considering a vote for Hilary (the Clintons are my favorite democrats, easily) until Comey gave that report, at which time it was obvious that the fix was in and I wasn't ever going to vote that way.

OK, to anticipate the question, why are the Clintons my favorite democrats? Because as despicable as they are, they aren't crazy commies like the group that seems to be in ascendancy in that party now.

(10-15-2020 02:42 PM)natibeast21 Wrote:  I do think think both the popular and electorate will be closer than '16 even though that sounds goofy. I could be wrong though.

I’m intrigued by this — you think Trump will do better in the popular vote, yet still lose 1 or more states that he carried last time?

It’s hard for me to see which states he would lose (compared to last time), if he’s running stronger in the National %

I have no clue how this one is going to go.

(10-16-2020 08:38 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-15-2020 02:42 PM)natibeast21 Wrote:  I do think think both the popular and electorate will be closer than '16 even though that sounds goofy. I could be wrong though.

I’m intrigued by this — you think Trump will do better in the popular vote, yet still lose 1 or more states that he carried last time?

It’s hard for me to see which states he would lose (compared to last time), if he’s running stronger in the National %

I think specifically he does better in our 2 largest cities of NYC and LA where residents are extremely unhappy right now with the extreme restrictions as well as the two states these cities reside in. This doesn't help him at all obviously.

I could see Pennsylvania or Michigan flipping to Biden.

This is just my gut feeling though. No real analysis being done besides instinct so could be way off.

I think he's making up ground since the first debate and the last debate is big for both candidates.

If election was today I'd lean towards Trump coming out on top again. People know what they are getting and as much as Biden try's to act like a straightforward guy he is flip flopping on far left vs middle issues since the primary and won't answer the Supreme Court question. I get he's trying to keep the focus on the virus for political purposes, but you can't just blow off this question over and over again. Even the MSM keeps asking this because people want/need to know.

The way Trump answered the questions on Supreme Court last night (exactly how they should be answered) compared to how Biden's campaign is handling of that question is a big one for many in the middle IMO. Add that to most still hate large gov't and I think it outweighs what's gone on with the virus this year. I have yet to see any country handle the virus successfully anyways unless you believe CHINA.

(10-16-2020 09:03 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I have no clue how this one is going to go.

me too, other than I doubt either concedes before Thursday.

(10-16-2020 09:16 AM)fsquid Wrote:  

(10-16-2020 09:03 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I have no clue how this one is going to go.

me too, other than I doubt either concedes before Thursday.

Me three.

Unless it’s just a true blowout, I don’t think either side concedes until the following week (Monday/9th or Tuesday/10th).

(10-16-2020 09:03 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I have no clue how this one is going to go.

Agree. That said, something just seems off to me. The polls claim Biden has a big lead—yet I see these huge crowds at Trump rallies....and a handful of people at Biden events. You can chalk it up to Biden’s Covid precautions—but at Covid safe “drive in” event in a huge parking lot where people would never leave the safety of their own car—only 30 cars showed up. The Biden strategy is odd as well. Why would a gaff prone guy with a growing poll lead in the polls not continue to hide in the basement—since that strategy seems to have built his massive lead?

To me, most of the poll lead is a mirage created by the constant over representation of democrats in polls (usually about a third more democrats than republicans are found in the survey pools). If you poll 10 more democrats than republicans for every 100 people polled—your going to almost always show a 10 point Democrat lead. Why the practice continues when the voter rolls counts for Democrats and Republicans are nearly equal is beyond me. You’d think you’d want to be accurate if you are a polling organization.

It's interesting that they discuss PA. It is obvious that the DNC is very worried about PA and are doing everything in their power to win the state. I think I have mentioned before that I live in South Jersey but am very close to Philly (where bad things happen) and am part of the "Philly Market". Almost every commercial on TV is a Biden Add. I have never seen a blitz like this ever before. It's obvious that the Biden campaign is spending 10's of Millions of dollars in my market hoping to get enough vote in Philly to offset any conservative areas of the state.

I know there are a few Spin Roomers that live in other parts of PA, so I'd be interested to hear if they are seeing the same campaign push. gdunn?

There are so many contradictory data points and strange goings on right now I don’t know if anyone truly knows what is going to happen.

I think we will know a winner on Election Day. Usually there's one candidate or the other that the country's leaning to.

(10-16-2020 08:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-16-2020 07:33 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  In 2016, Trump benefited tremendously from the revelation 11 days before the election that Hillary was under investigation again by the FBI.

I wouldn't count on that happening again. Joe is staying in his basement specifically so that he can avoid any last minute gaffes.

Biden may literally also be under investigation by the FBI.

So Harris (hypothetically) could either become POTUS Ford style or by the 25th.

Looks like Trump has moved ahead in Michigan now.

(10-16-2020 10:17 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(10-16-2020 08:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-16-2020 07:33 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  In 2016, Trump benefited tremendously from the revelation 11 days before the election that Hillary was under investigation again by the FBI.

I wouldn't count on that happening again. Joe is staying in his basement specifically so that he can avoid any last minute gaffes.

Biden may literally also be under investigation by the FBI.

So Harris (hypothetically) could either become POTUS Ford style or by the 25th.

Unlikely (at least due to FBI actions). If Biden wins, the Democrats would almost certainly maintain control the House, which is where any impeachment would have to originate. They wouldnt impeach no matter what Biden did. Democrats wouldnt care if Biden was eating babies in the basement as long as the Democrats have power.

(10-16-2020 09:30 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-16-2020 09:03 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I have no clue how this one is going to go.

Agree. That said, something just seems off to me. The polls claim Biden has a big lead—yet I see these huge crowds at Trump rallies....and a handful of people at Biden events. You can chalk it up to Biden’s Covid precautions—but at Covid safe “drive in” event in a huge parking lot where people would never leave the safety of their own car—only 30 cars showed up. The Biden strategy is odd as well. Why would a gaff prone guy with a growing poll lead in the polls not continue to hide in the basement—since that strategy seems to have built his massive lead?

To me, most of the poll lead is a mirage created by the constant over representation of democrats in polls (usually about a third more democrats than republicans are found in the survey pools). If you poll 10 more democrats than republicans for every 100 people polled—your going to almost always show a 10 point Democrat lead. Why the practice continues when the voter rolls counts for Democrats and Republicans are nearly equal is beyond me. You’d think you’d want to be accurate if you are a polling organization.

I think too many people are going by polls and I think WAAAYYYY too many people are going by Trump rallies.