(10-19-2020 01:35 PM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  

(10-15-2020 11:17 AM)bullet Wrote:  Of course he has a chance at Nevada.

He has a chance at Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia and Maine. He has a really good chance at Minnesota. All 7 states were close last time.

If there is a Trump wave, don't be surprised if he picks up Connecticut and Oregon.

Connecticut???

You must have gotten into Hunter's stash!

Democrat's % in states they won:
MN 46.4
NH 46.7 (missed this before)
NM 47.0
NV 47.5
ME 47.8
CO 48.2
NM 48.3
VA 49.7
OR 50.0
WA 52.5
DE 53.1
RI 54.4
CT 54.6

So Oregon is the most likely after the 8 close states. Washington seems to have gone far left with Californians and Delaware has a home boy, so RI and CT are the next most likely if there is a Trump wave. Both have a good bit of blue collar workers.

The fix is in in VA. Trump will initially lead and be crushed here by 10 pm or whenever the northern VA suburbs filled with swamp workers report. I live in a suburban/rural county which will be solidly red. Roughly 25% of all registered voters have already cast ballots with a ratio of 2/3 in person, 1/3 by mail. That will be the red blue split here. Needs to be 3/4, 1/4 to overcome nova.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just looking at the numbers, Trump's worst state he won was Utah with 45.6%. Of course that was still 18 points ahead of Hillary. Utah was her 4th worst state overall. She got 21.6% in Wyoming, 26.4% in W. Virginia, 27.2% in N. Dakota and 27.5% in Utah. She also got 27.5% in Idaho. Trump was only under 30% in DC. Hawaii was his worst state.

(10-19-2020 05:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  Just looking at the numbers, Trump's worst state he won was Utah with 45.6%. Of course that was still 18 points ahead of Hillary. Utah was her 4th worst state overall. She got 21.6% in Wyoming, 26.4% in W. Virginia, 27.2% in N. Dakota and 27.5% in Utah. She also got 27.5% in Idaho. Trump was only under 30% in DC. Hawaii was his worst state.

You mean the same state that gave us Crazy Hirono!? Impossible

If GOP is doing better than expected in NV early voting it would be a good sign for elsewhere too where a significantly greater amount of $ and resources have been spent

I'm not sure what to make of the early voting in general. GOP voters seem to think they're sitting good, Dem voters seem to think it's over & numbers are matching the polls

(10-21-2020 12:33 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  I'm not sure what to make of the early voting in general. GOP voters seem to think they're sitting good, Dem voters seem to think it's over & numbers are matching the polls

Its tough.

Dems are doing well in early mail in voting but the million dollar question is are they expanding upon or canabalizing their in person early and election day vote?

(10-21-2020 06:58 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-21-2020 12:33 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  I'm not sure what to make of the early voting in general. GOP voters seem to think they're sitting good, Dem voters seem to think it's over & numbers are matching the polls

Its tough.

Dems are doing well in early mail in voting but the million dollar question is are they expanding upon or canabalizing their in person early and election day vote?

Exactly. Anyone voting early was always going to be a voter. Election Day voting is much more important.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

GOP got a EV win in Clark County yesterday.

Still a very large deficit especially when compared to 2016 BUT is the Dem electorate expanding or just shifting the time of their vote?

Quote:The Democrats had a 36,000-ballot lead in Clark at this time in 2016 and it would double by the end of early voting. So they are well ahead of that pace so far, but the voting patterns are so different because so many Dems are -- wait for it again -- mailing it in, and the GOP is winning the early vote day after day.

Did the Dems max out too early or will the GOP run out of steam?

Thats the question with all this mail in voting

GOP keeps chipping away

https://twitter.com/AdamLaxalt/status/13...5931422721

STRANGE THINGS INSIDE THE GOLD MINE

(10-19-2020 01:28 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 01:17 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-19-2020 08:41 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Politico, not exactly the bastion of conservative speak, called this back in January. They said that if hispanics were breaking to Trump that not only would Florida and NC be unwinnable for dems, but that NV would flip and NM would be close.

Winning NM would be this year's Pennsylvania

No one is looking at NM right now

ONLY 5 EVs and if Trump wins it, he didn't need to.

Winning a state like NM makes this election a complete rebuke of the socialist democrat party and ideology. It destroys them and their leadership going into the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential election. There's not a single prominent democrat in DC that could be looked at as a viable presidential candidate for 2024.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Big update here. If Trump has made up up ground compared to 2016 in a state he lost and doesn't necessarily need, plus one that is extremely friendly to mail in ballots, you gotta like his chances elsewhere

Quote:Clark firewall could be as low as 67K and statewide lead could be down below 50K. Dems lead in Washoe still a robust 5K, but dropping.

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

My concern the GOP is cannibalzing their election dayvote

(10-28-2020 07:03 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  My concern the GOP is cannibalzing their election dayvote

Always a concern, but the same would apply equally if not more so to the Dems who would be more willing to mail in their vote.