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Completion of the Season
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ThreeifbyLightning Offline
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Post: #1
Completion of the Season
This is an objective perspective. Not trying to get you folks who think this pandemic is a nothing burger riled up. I will only make one statement that some of you will take political, so will just get it out of the way. The premise that this going to go away after the election is one of the most absurd things I’ve read on this board. If you are one of those no apology. That’s just a strange thing to say. Anyway, that’s not the point of this.

First, I will start with an admission that I was wrong. I really didn’t think we would have football this year. I thought conferences would come out and say we aren’t going to risk it (as the B10 and P12 did) and then everyone else would follow suit. That didn’t happen. I was wrong. And glad I was. Has been great to have sense of normalcy with FB in early fall. Very thankful for that. Though I will say it’s so stupid for those other leagues to have shut down and then come out and say they would start in November. That’s just dumb.

Anyway, case counts - new daily cases that is - are back to being higher now than at any point in March and April. Deaths are getting back to around 1,000 per day and as cooler weather sets in and less outdoor time with so many states and communities going back to being fully open with not even limited restrictions it’s hard to imagine we won’t be setting new daily records for both case counts and deaths as we get into November and deeper into late fall.

Unfortunately, I think we’re going to start seeing more games getting canceled as we get deeper into the season. That’s the only prediction I’m making but I’ve been thinking about the odds of being able to finish the season. It would not surprise me to see some teams lose several of their scheduled Nov/Dec games. What happens if several teams from the same conference can’t play two, three or maybe more of their remaining games?
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2020 02:03 PM by ThreeifbyLightning.)
10-14-2020 01:49 PM
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banker Offline
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RE: Completion of the Season
You are incorrect on your stats and missing the main one. Cases are half what they were at the so-called second wave peak. We have not had a 1,000 death day in three weeks and,’most importantly, the death rate Continues to plummet.

I’m not saying games won’t get cancelled,’but we are on the back side of deaths and this will look more like the flu going forward.
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2020 02:07 PM by banker.)
10-14-2020 02:06 PM
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ThreeifbyLightning Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Completion of the Season
How is what I said wrong? I said case counts are higher now than in March/April (not after everyone opened for the summer that causes the spike). I also didn’t say we hit 1000 but we’re starting to approach that number again with deaths hitting into the 800s and 900s in the past week.

The reason I made that distinction is because everything being open in the summer is a different issue than it happening in colder months when people spend less time outdoors. Also, that wasn’t a second wave. That was still part of the initial outbreak that we - as a nation - failed to mitigate. We are just now beginning the second wave.
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2020 02:19 PM by ThreeifbyLightning.)
10-14-2020 02:09 PM
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DogsWin1 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Completion of the Season
Ah geez, here we go again. Could you start another conference realignment thread instead?
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2020 02:22 PM by DogsWin1.)
10-14-2020 02:22 PM
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ThreeifbyLightning Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Completion of the Season
(10-14-2020 02:22 PM)DogsWin1 Wrote:  Ah geez, here we go again. Could you start another conference realignment thread instead?

LOL. Fair enough. Seriously though you know there’s a chance and then Judy is going to screw it up. I’m just trying to think about who is going to get screwed as a result. At least we suck this year which means I don’t have to worry about it.
10-14-2020 02:30 PM
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FAU Connoisseur! Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Completion of the Season
The key metric is whether hospitals get overrun. They never did.
10-14-2020 02:50 PM
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ThreeifbyLightning Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Completion of the Season
(10-14-2020 02:50 PM)FAU Connoisseur! Wrote:  The key metric is whether hospitals get overrun. They never did.

That’s not what is being discussed here. Quite a few games have been cancelled or postponed with hospitals not being over run. So, that has nothing to do with this thread. The question is if we experience significantly increased case loads that affect more teams how is that handled by the league?
10-14-2020 03:59 PM
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ghostofclt! Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Completion of the Season
clt says apple releasing 5g phones is going to threaten next year as well
10-14-2020 05:32 PM
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banker Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Completion of the Season
It comes down to what protocols a team has in place, how hard the coaches push it,’and how willing the players are to sacrifice to get to play.

Every Marshall player, coach, and AD employee gets tested 3 times a week. You never see the coaches without masks and distancing, and the players have sacrificed a lot of social interaction with anyone but teammates. We haven’t had a positive test in weeks.

Apparently some teams aren’t as diligent.
10-14-2020 06:20 PM
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goliath74 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Completion of the Season
(10-14-2020 02:50 PM)FAU Connoisseur! Wrote:  The key metric is whether hospitals get overrun. They never did.

I do not think it is a key stat at all. With our ability to test just short of everybody, the run on the hospital beds is not as likely, but COVID does not become any less of an issue than before.
10-15-2020 08:37 AM
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kevinwmsn Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Completion of the Season
It depends on what part of the country you are in on this outdoor thing. In the South, it is finally start to cool down from the mid 90s where everyone was in air conditioning. Now we are getting down to highs of low 80s, where people can enjoy things outside. The hospitals are designed to be near capacity so they can make money. The key is that they are not overwhelmed. I see so many people not wearing masks correctly or even at all, See so many wearing those neckgaters that are so thin that you can see right thru them. I think there is a part of the public that just isn't caring anymore.
10-15-2020 08:46 AM
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blazer-J Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Completion of the Season
Cases are up, mainly due to an increase in the number of daily tests. The positive testing rate is still right around 5%. I don't think the daily cases will decline for quite some time (until widespread vaccinations / herd immunity). The main things are hospitalizations and deaths. Average daily deaths are actually down in October.
10-15-2020 08:51 AM
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ghostofclt! Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Completion of the Season
clt is amazed that we have so many public health professionals on this chat page.
10-15-2020 08:52 AM
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goliath74 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Completion of the Season
(10-15-2020 08:51 AM)blazer-J Wrote:  Cases are up, mainly due to an increase in the number of daily tests. The positive testing rate is still right around 5%. I don't think the daily cases will decline for quite some time (until widespread vaccinations / herd immunity). The main things are hospitalizations and deaths. Average daily deaths are actually down in October.

Herd immunity is unlikely as it seems we can actually get COVID multiple times. Production of COVID antibodies in our bodies slows down and, pretty much, stops within three months of recovering from COVID.
10-15-2020 08:59 AM
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FAU Connoisseur! Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Completion of the Season
(10-15-2020 08:37 AM)goliath74 Wrote:  
(10-14-2020 02:50 PM)FAU Connoisseur! Wrote:  The key metric is whether hospitals get overrun. They never did.

I do not think it is a key stat at all. With our ability to test just short of everybody, the run on the hospital beds is not as likely, but COVID does not become any less of an issue than before.

wrong again...the fear was overrunning the beds. never happen.
10-15-2020 10:26 AM
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GreenBison Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Completion of the Season
(10-14-2020 05:32 PM)ghostofclt! Wrote:  clt says apple releasing 5g phones is going to threaten next year as well

An Apple a day keeps the Doctor away!
10-15-2020 11:54 AM
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ThreeifbyLightning Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Completion of the Season
FWIW, since it started getting a little cooler case counts trending up and went over 80,000 new reported cases in a single day for the first time today. Some of the harder hit states are struggling with hospitalizations.
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2020 08:58 PM by ThreeifbyLightning.)
10-23-2020 08:57 PM
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DragonLair Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Completion of the Season
(10-15-2020 08:59 AM)goliath74 Wrote:  
(10-15-2020 08:51 AM)blazer-J Wrote:  Cases are up, mainly due to an increase in the number of daily tests. The positive testing rate is still right around 5%. I don't think the daily cases will decline for quite some time (until widespread vaccinations / herd immunity). The main things are hospitalizations and deaths. Average daily deaths are actually down in October.

Herd immunity is unlikely as it seems we can actually get COVID multiple times. Production of COVID antibodies in our bodies slows down and, pretty much, stops within three months of recovering from COVID.

If that’s the case then it doesn’t matter. You would have to get a vaccine every year.
10-23-2020 09:11 PM
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WKUYG Away
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Post: #19
RE: Completion of the Season
(10-15-2020 08:59 AM)goliath74 Wrote:  
(10-15-2020 08:51 AM)blazer-J Wrote:  Cases are up, mainly due to an increase in the number of daily tests. The positive testing rate is still right around 5%. I don't think the daily cases will decline for quite some time (until widespread vaccinations / herd immunity). The main things are hospitalizations and deaths. Average daily deaths are actually down in October.

Herd immunity is unlikely as it seems we can actually get COVID multiple times. Production of COVID antibodies in our bodies slows down and, pretty much, stops within three months of recovering from COVID.

Two freaking people in the whole world has tested positive, twice. So its rarer than a person under 21 dying from Covid. That's pretty damn rare
10-23-2020 11:03 PM
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EagNBran Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Completion of the Season
(10-14-2020 02:50 PM)FAU Connoisseur! Wrote:  The key metric is whether hospitals get overrun. They never did.

Maybe where you live, but in many major cities they most certainly did. Heck, many of the hospitals in MS were overrun at our peak. They were having to convert rooms from different units just to meet demand. And when that happens, the ER ends up turning away someone with a broken foot because they don’t have the space and they don’t have a life-threatening disease.

I hope cases go back down and we don’t have to worry about it, but science says it probably won’t happen. Not yet, at least.
10-24-2020 12:01 AM
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