Things have to start getting better for our intrepid pickers. So far, we are the bookmakers' favorite people, as we have been correct on only 45% of our picks. This hasn't been a year for chalk, with favorites winning only 43% of the time. As a group, we have picked the favorites to cover the spread 57% of the time. Not a winning formula this year.

But Week 7 gives us another chance to start climbing out of the hole. Here are the games.

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker:
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2

Remember to pick the points in the tiebreaker game. It has already determined the winner once this season.

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker: 60
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker:
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2 45

Tennessee
Miami
Cincinnati
Clemson
Notre Dame
Florida
NC State
Arkansas (wins outright)
Wake Forest (wins outright)
North Carolina
Baylor (I think Ok St wins a close game)
Boston College (Virginia Tech wins)

Tiebreaker:
Georgia (I think Alabama wins but I'll take the points)
Tiebreak: 80

Winners in bold:

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker:
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2

71 points

A little more data to help us with our picks (and we need it): If you were wondering, the home team has won 61% of the time, but only covered the spread 48%. That data includes the 23 home wins against FCS opponents (with no losses so far). In past years, home teams have averaged winning closer to 52% vs FBS opponents, so it's possible that there isn't as great a home field advantage when there are no large crowds in the stands.

Now that we are mostly playing conference games from here on out, I'll keep tracking the data to see how that affects the numbers.

The 8 members of this week's AP Top Ten who have actually played a game have covered the spread 13 times and failed to do so 12 times.

1...Clemson...2-2
2...Alabama...1-2
3...Georgia...3-0
4...Notre Dame...1-2
5...UNC...2-1
7...Oklahoma State...2-1
8...Cincinnati...1-2
10..Florida...1-2

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker:
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2
58 points

Oklahoma St @ Baylor is postponed.

(10-11-2020 03:36 PM)ken d Wrote:  Things have to start getting better for our intrepid pickers. So far, we are the bookmakers' favorite people, as we have been correct on only 45% of our picks. This hasn't been a year for chalk, with favorites winning only 43% of the time. As a group, we have picked the favorites to cover the spread 57% of the time. Not a winning formula this year.

But Week 7 gives us another chance to start climbing out of the hole. Here are the games.

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker: Tie Breaker Points 55
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2

Remember to pick the points in the tiebreaker game. It has already determined the winner once this season.

LSU @ Florida looking iffy, but not yet postponed. So we should continue to pick for now, just in case.

Edit: Looks like this one won't be played Saturday either.

(10-11-2020 03:36 PM)ken d Wrote:  Things have to start getting better for our intrepid pickers. So far, we are the bookmakers' favorite people, as we have been correct on only 45% of our picks. This hasn't been a year for chalk, with favorites winning only 43% of the time. As a group, we have picked the favorites to cover the spread 57% of the time. Not a winning formula this year.

But Week 7 gives us another chance to start climbing out of the hole. Here are the games.

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker:
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2
85 points

Remember to pick the points in the tiebreaker game. It has already determined the winner once this season.

Tennessee
Pitt
Cincinnati
Georgia Tech
Notre Dame
LSU @ Florida ppd.
NC State
Ole Miss
Wake Forest
North Carolina
Baylor
Boston College
Georgia
54 points

Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt +10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2
Clemson -26 1/2
Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU +11 1/2
NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2
Virginia -1 1/2
Florida State +9 1/2
Boston College +11 1/2

Tiebreaker:
Alabama -5 1/2

Remember to pick the points in the tiebreaker game.
52

Tennessee
Miami
Cincinnati
Clemson
Notre Dame
Florida
NC State
Arkansas
Wake Forest
North Carolina
Oklahoma State
Virginia Tech

Tiebreaker:
Georgia

Tennessee
Pitt
Cincinnati
Clemson
Notre Dame
Duke
Ole Miss
Virginia
North Carolina
Oklahoma State
Boston College

Tiebreaker:
Alabama

68 points

(10-11-2020 03:36 PM)ken d Wrote:  Things have to start getting better for our intrepid pickers. So far, we are the bookmakers' favorite people, as we have been correct on only 45% of our picks. This hasn't been a year for chalk, with favorites winning only 43% of the time. As a group, we have picked the favorites to cover the spread 57% of the time. Not a winning formula this year.

But Week 7 gives us another chance to start climbing out of the hole. Here are the games.

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker:
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2

Points: 63
Remember to pick the points in the tiebreaker game. It has already determined the winner once this season.

And now Cincy @Tulsa has been postponed. Three of the six postponed games were on the Pickem card. Hope this isn't a trend. I may need to start out with more games each week to allow for attrition. That means dipping deeper into the barrel of interesting games.

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker:
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2

Total Points: 77

To everyone picking NC State over Duke. NC State is the better team. But that does not mean anything.

Ever year NC State has a WTF game against an inferior opponent from inside the state of NC. That opponent can be WF, ECU, UNC, or Duke. What usually happens is that State starts slow and puts itself in a position of needing to play a perfect 4th quarter to win. This could be that game.

Going back 15 years:

WTF to WF in 2005, 2006, 2011, 2013, 2017, 2018
WTF to ECU in 2008, 2010, 2016
WTF to UNC in 2012
WTF to Duke in 2009

Kentucky @ Tennessee -3 1/2
Pitt @ Miami -10 1/2
Cincinnati -3 1/2 @ Tulsa
Clemson -26 1/2 @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Notre Dame -15 1/2
LSU @ Florida -11 1/2
Duke @ NC State -4 1/2
Ole Miss -3 1/2 @ Arkansas
Virginia -1 1/2 @ Wake Forest
North Carolina -9 1/2 @ Florida State
Oklahoma State -5 1/2 @ Baylor
Boston College @ Virginia Tech -11 1/2

Tiebreaker:
Georgia @ Alabama -5 1/2

71 points