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MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #121
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(01-31-2021 07:42 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(01-31-2021 11:35 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-31-2021 01:55 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(01-30-2021 04:56 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(01-30-2021 02:44 AM)Wedge Wrote:  St Louis is adding another year to the end of Arenado's contract -- another sign that everyone assumes there will be a universal DH.

Is Arenado forgoing the option at the end of next season?

No. In fact, the Cards are giving him another opt out after 2022. May not amount to much as his projections slightly underperform his contract value, but it’s leverage anyway. Read somewhere it’s likely the extra option year was thrown in to keep the union happy about the deferred compensation.

when you factor the money going to St Louis from Colorado- he'll almost certainly beat his contract value. Only need like 19.5 WAR these next 6 years.

You’re not wrong but this isn’t my point. For Arenado to opt out he has to believe teams will think his current contract undervalues his performance. The Cards getting a discount doesn’t change his total compensation. At $8MM/WAR, he’s gonna need teams to think he can generate more than 25 WAR in the next 6 years (rather, 20.5 over the next 5 years once this season is thru). It’s a tall order.

well in the last 4 full seasons he's averaged 5.6 fWAR. 22.5 fWAR in those 4 years. Think it's very possible he at least matches that if not exceeds.
01-31-2021 07:48 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #122
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(01-31-2021 07:45 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(01-31-2021 04:36 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-31-2021 03:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  and here's big part why.....
The proposal would also give Commissioner Rob Manfred expanded authority to suspend the season, according to the two people and two additional people with direct knowledge of the proposal

MLBPA would be fools to give Manfred authority to suspend the season and cut off their paychecks.

“Here’s a pretty good deal, but I’ve got the power to change it at any time.”

Exactly. If the MLBPA took this deal, this would be Manfred a month from now:



01-31-2021 10:18 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #123
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(01-31-2021 07:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-31-2021 07:42 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(01-31-2021 11:35 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-31-2021 01:55 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(01-30-2021 04:56 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Is Arenado forgoing the option at the end of next season?

No. In fact, the Cards are giving him another opt out after 2022. May not amount to much as his projections slightly underperform his contract value, but it’s leverage anyway. Read somewhere it’s likely the extra option year was thrown in to keep the union happy about the deferred compensation.

when you factor the money going to St Louis from Colorado- he'll almost certainly beat his contract value. Only need like 19.5 WAR these next 6 years.

You’re not wrong but this isn’t my point. For Arenado to opt out he has to believe teams will think his current contract undervalues his performance. The Cards getting a discount doesn’t change his total compensation. At $8MM/WAR, he’s gonna need teams to think he can generate more than 25 WAR in the next 6 years (rather, 20.5 over the next 5 years once this season is thru). It’s a tall order.

well in the last 4 full seasons he's averaged 5.6 fWAR. 22.5 fWAR in those 4 years. Think it's very possible he at least matches that if not exceeds.

Ok. I don’t agree (nor does ZiPS) but what you wrote kind of supports my point. Matching that number means he shouldn’t opt out. To opt out he’ll need to believe there are teams who think he’ll *meaningfully* exceed that number. Or that there will be teams so desperate they’ll be willing to significantly overpay. It could happen, but I think the odds are against it.
01-31-2021 10:22 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #124
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
Where he might opt out is after the 2022 season. At that point he's "only" due 144 million for 5 years. 18 WAR. If he's had 2 6+ WAR seasons in 2021 and 2022- he might just take that chance. No lock obviously.
02-01-2021 12:20 AM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #125
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
Dustin Pedroia, who hasn't played the last couple seasons, officially retired.
02-01-2021 12:10 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #126
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-01-2021 12:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Where he might opt out is after the 2022 season. At that point he's "only" due 144 million for 5 years. 18 WAR. If he's had 2 6+ WAR seasons in 2021 and 2022- he might just take that chance. No lock obviously.

I think that's right. It's hard to ask a top 10 MLB/top 5 NL guy to increase his production, but I'd guess that a huge, MVPish 2021 might even do the trick. The bottom line is an opt out is going to have to come on the heels of very high level performance.
02-01-2021 02:47 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #127
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
players as expected rejected the owners proposal...

So 2019 style baseball with no NL DH and no expanded playoffs...


02-01-2021 10:58 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #128
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-01-2021 10:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  players as expected rejected the owners proposal...

So 2019 style baseball with no NL DH and no expanded playoffs...

Might as well enjoy the season as it is, because the lack of cooperation between the sides is a pretty good indication that there will be a lockout or strike next year.
02-01-2021 11:40 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #129
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-01-2021 11:40 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(02-01-2021 10:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  players as expected rejected the owners proposal...

So 2019 style baseball with no NL DH and no expanded playoffs...

Might as well enjoy the season as it is, because the lack of cooperation between the sides is a pretty good indication that there will be a lockout or strike next year.

100% going to be a lockout on Dec 1.
02-01-2021 11:46 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #130
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-01-2021 11:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-01-2021 11:40 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(02-01-2021 10:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  players as expected rejected the owners proposal...

So 2019 style baseball with no NL DH and no expanded playoffs...

Might as well enjoy the season as it is, because the lack of cooperation between the sides is a pretty good indication that there will be a lockout or strike next year.

100% going to be a lockout on Dec 1.

of course that fact really hasn't changed much at all. Think most knew it would be a war no matter what happened these last 2 years.
02-02-2021 12:07 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #131
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
so this thread shows why the players didn't counter- it's a long one so only posting first post...



turns out if the players had countered the owners, the CBA would have been considered being reopened. If they couldn't agree to something- owners could just have implemented conditions.
02-02-2021 12:31 AM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #132
Question RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
Holy Crap! FREEMAN to the Indians! Oh, have mercy!
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2021 01:54 PM by GoodOwl.)
02-04-2021 01:52 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #133
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
sounds like Bauer down to the Mets and Dodgers....

Brookes what do you think?
02-04-2021 04:31 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #134
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-04-2021 04:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  sounds like Bauer down to the Mets and Dodgers....

Brookes what do you think?

Dodgers had great chemistry in 2020. They've lost one of their best clubhouse guys in Hernandez and now they're close to adding a guy who I find to be a horse's ass off the field. The starting pitching staff is deep as is. I don't love this.
02-05-2021 10:59 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #135
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-05-2021 10:59 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(02-04-2021 04:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  sounds like Bauer down to the Mets and Dodgers....

Brookes what do you think?

Dodgers had great chemistry in 2020. They've lost one of their best clubhouse guys in Hernandez and now they're close to adding a guy who I find to be a horse's ass off the field. The starting pitching staff is deep as is. I don't love this.

lol, man don't hold back next time :)

I'd agree with you from afar. Already have a great rotation. If this was next year after Kershaw was gone presumably(that'll be interesting btw)- might see it more.
02-05-2021 12:03 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #136
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-05-2021 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-05-2021 10:59 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(02-04-2021 04:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  sounds like Bauer down to the Mets and Dodgers....

Brookes what do you think?

Dodgers had great chemistry in 2020. They've lost one of their best clubhouse guys in Hernandez and now they're close to adding a guy who I find to be a horse's ass off the field. The starting pitching staff is deep as is. I don't love this.

lol, man don't hold back next time :)

I'd agree with you from afar. Already have a great rotation. If this was next year after Kershaw was gone presumably(that'll be interesting btw)- might see it more.

There's no denying the guy's talent but the Dodgers clubhouse has a lot of guys with strong social justice stances (not taking a political position - I'm just describing what we've seen). Putting Bauer in that mix has a huge potential for volatility - even if it's just guys reading his tweets. I'm genuinely worried this could amount to subtraction by addition. Totally rooting for the Mets in this race, not a little bit because I think he could be just as disruptive over there. Bauer was a lightning rod in Cleveland and Cincy - can you imagine what could happen in NYC???
02-05-2021 02:28 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #137
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-05-2021 02:28 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(02-05-2021 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-05-2021 10:59 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(02-04-2021 04:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  sounds like Bauer down to the Mets and Dodgers....

Brookes what do you think?

Dodgers had great chemistry in 2020. They've lost one of their best clubhouse guys in Hernandez and now they're close to adding a guy who I find to be a horse's ass off the field. The starting pitching staff is deep as is. I don't love this.

lol, man don't hold back next time :)

I'd agree with you from afar. Already have a great rotation. If this was next year after Kershaw was gone presumably(that'll be interesting btw)- might see it more.

There's no denying the guy's talent but the Dodgers clubhouse has a lot of guys with strong social justice stances (not taking a political position - I'm just describing what we've seen). Putting Bauer in that mix has a huge potential for volatility - even if it's just guys reading his tweets. I'm genuinely worried this could amount to subtraction by addition. Totally rooting for the Mets in this race, not a little bit because I think he could be just as disruptive over there. Bauer was a lightning rod in Cleveland and Cincy - can you imagine what could happen in NYC???

yeah hadn't thought the social justice angle but you're spot on.

Thinking Randy Johnson with that NYC media.
02-05-2021 02:41 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #138
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
Heyman saying he's going to Dodgers. Hometown team.
02-05-2021 02:47 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #139
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-05-2021 12:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-05-2021 10:59 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(02-04-2021 04:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  sounds like Bauer down to the Mets and Dodgers....

Brookes what do you think?

Dodgers had great chemistry in 2020. They've lost one of their best clubhouse guys in Hernandez and now they're close to adding a guy who I find to be a horse's ass off the field. The starting pitching staff is deep as is. I don't love this.

lol, man don't hold back next time :)

I'd agree with you from afar. Already have a great rotation. If this was next year after Kershaw was gone presumably(that'll be interesting btw)- might see it more.

Your Kershaw point is a really good one. We were speculating at the beginning of this contract that he might be ready to retire at (if not before) the end of the deal. But if he has even a decent 2021 it seems a lock he'll want another multi-year deal and there will be a number of willing teams. If he has a year like 2020? The market will be pretty hot. 2022 will have an interesting FA class if guys aren't extended in the meantime. Several older but HOF (or at least in the conversation) guys (Kersh, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke) and a large mix of top and middle-rotation guys.
02-05-2021 02:50 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #140
RE: MLB 2020/21 Hot Stove Thread
(02-05-2021 02:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Heyman saying he's going to Dodgers. Hometown team.

*sigh* I'm now rooting for a guy to be a really good pitcher while not being a dick.

******* Bob Nightengale. He tweeted Bauer to the Mets last night.
02-05-2021 02:53 PM
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