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Poll: Which conference is most likely to see a member (or members) depart?
ACC
Big 12
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PAC 12
SEC
No one will ever leave, not until the end of time
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Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-25-2020 02:51 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(10-18-2020 10:32 AM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  The PAC 12 is in terrible shape ... Very little fan interest .. Bad political environment .. Poor payouts per school ... Northwestern and Wake enjoy much more income from media contracts than does USC ... Something will give ..


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So are you predicting that Southern Cal is going to be the first to blink?

It's not wholly illogical. If any of the California schools can escape political entanglements it will be USC or Stanford. I don't see a bold move coming from a state school.

I consider this as a low probability but there are dire times in the PAC.
10-25-2020 03:06 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-25-2020 03:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-25-2020 02:51 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(10-18-2020 10:32 AM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  The PAC 12 is in terrible shape ... Very little fan interest .. Bad political environment .. Poor payouts per school ... Northwestern and Wake enjoy much more income from media contracts than does USC ... Something will give ..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

So are you predicting that Southern Cal is going to be the first to blink?

It's not wholly illogical. If any of the California schools can escape political entanglements it will be USC or Stanford. I don't see a bold move coming from a state school.

I consider this as a low probability but there are dire times in the PAC.

Stanford is in lock step with the west coast state schools as far as politics go.
If USC escapes, it would be likely a move to the Big 12 (which means that the Big 12 would survive).
It's hard to see the Big 12 moving two time zones and for the networks to invest a lot of capitol to capture an iffy market. With shrinking subscribers in the cable model and not being sure that the folks in LA would buy into Texas/Big 8 culture, that's a huge risk not only for a network, but for Southern Cal as well.
I would pass on this investment opportunity.
Yesterday 05:00 AM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #103
RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
Between the Big 12 and the Pac 12, the Big 12 is stronger at the top but the Pac 12 is stronger in the middle. If you ranked the 22 Big 12/Pac 12 schools by value to networks, no doubt UT and OU would be the top two but would any other Big 12 team even be in the top 10 of that list? The Pac 12 has four California schools, Oregon, Washington, two schools in Arizona (including one in the Phoenix metro area), and Colorado. Once you have Texas and Oklahoma, the rest of the Big 12 is mostly a bunch of second and third choice state schools and schools in irrelevant markets. The Pathetic 12 may be irrelevant nationally but they own the West Coast including the most populous state in the country. Colorado is one of the worst athletic programs in FBS now but they're the biggest show in Denver and that's meaningful. Iowa State? They don't even own Iowa. They own Ames? How many people is that?

If the networks could draft the most valuable programs from the Big 12 and Pac 12 conferences to start a new conference, a large majority would be from the Pac 12. We've actually done an exercise on CSNBB and we've confirmed that. So I think it's way more likely Texas/Oklahoma move to the Pac-12 than California schools to the Big 12. Academics again play a role because again university presidents usually call the shots. Do you think Berkeley's or Stanford's president wants to be associated with Texas Tech or Oklahoma State or West Virginia? They'd rather invite who they want from the Big 12 and call the shots.
Yesterday 06:59 AM
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Thiefery Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(Yesterday 06:59 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Between the Big 12 and the Pac 12, the Big 12 is stronger at the top but the Pac 12 is stronger in the middle. If you ranked the 22 Big 12/Pac 12 schools by value to networks, no doubt UT and OU would be the top two but would any other Big 12 team even be in the top 10 of that list? The Pac 12 has four California schools, Oregon, Washington, two schools in Arizona (including one in the Phoenix metro area), and Colorado. Once you have Texas and Oklahoma, the rest of the Big 12 is mostly a bunch of second and third choice state schools and schools in irrelevant markets. The Pathetic 12 may be irrelevant nationally but they own the West Coast including the most populous state in the country. Colorado is one of the worst athletic programs in FBS now but they're the biggest show in Denver and that's meaningful. Iowa State? They don't even own Iowa. They own Ames? How many people is that?

If the networks could draft the most valuable programs from the Big 12 and Pac 12 conferences to start a new conference, a large majority would be from the Pac 12. We've actually done an exercise on CSNBB and we've confirmed that. So I think it's way more likely Texas/Oklahoma move to the Pac-12 than California schools to the Big 12. Academics again play a role because again university presidents usually call the shots. Do you think Berkeley's or Stanford's president wants to be associated with Texas Tech or Oklahoma State or West Virginia? They'd rather invite who they want from the Big 12 and call the shots.

I see that as well, but the PAC/Scott are in a bad spot. What can they do to possibly get UT/ou back in play again? Allow them to once again bring two others? Tech/osu? Allow Texas to continue it's deal with LHN?

If this thing really had a chance to work out.. it would be for the better that the three/four main schools decide to break out when the GOR expires and set up a new conference.

SC
UCLA
ASU
AZ
UW
OR
Utah

UT
ou
Tech
osu
CO
KU
ISU

I still don't like CO, since they have shown no life in sports.. I mean their stadium was 80% Nebraska fans a year ago. If they couldn't get the locals to show up, who can? Nebraska would actually be the better choice in this scenario, but I don't see them leaving the BIG now. They are seen as heroes.
Yesterday 10:55 AM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(Yesterday 10:55 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  
(Yesterday 06:59 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Between the Big 12 and the Pac 12, the Big 12 is stronger at the top but the Pac 12 is stronger in the middle. If you ranked the 22 Big 12/Pac 12 schools by value to networks, no doubt UT and OU would be the top two but would any other Big 12 team even be in the top 10 of that list? The Pac 12 has four California schools, Oregon, Washington, two schools in Arizona (including one in the Phoenix metro area), and Colorado. Once you have Texas and Oklahoma, the rest of the Big 12 is mostly a bunch of second and third choice state schools and schools in irrelevant markets. The Pathetic 12 may be irrelevant nationally but they own the West Coast including the most populous state in the country. Colorado is one of the worst athletic programs in FBS now but they're the biggest show in Denver and that's meaningful. Iowa State? They don't even own Iowa. They own Ames? How many people is that?

If the networks could draft the most valuable programs from the Big 12 and Pac 12 conferences to start a new conference, a large majority would be from the Pac 12. We've actually done an exercise on CSNBB and we've confirmed that. So I think it's way more likely Texas/Oklahoma move to the Pac-12 than California schools to the Big 12. Academics again play a role because again university presidents usually call the shots. Do you think Berkeley's or Stanford's president wants to be associated with Texas Tech or Oklahoma State or West Virginia? They'd rather invite who they want from the Big 12 and call the shots.

I see that as well, but the PAC/Scott are in a bad spot. What can they do to possibly get UT/ou back in play again? Allow them to once again bring two others? Tech/osu? Allow Texas to continue it's deal with LHN?

If this thing really had a chance to work out.. it would be for the better that the three/four main schools decide to break out when the GOR expires and set up a new conference.

SC
UCLA
ASU
AZ
UW
OR
Utah

UT
ou
Tech
osu
CO
KU
ISU

I still don't like CO, since they have shown no life in sports.. I mean their stadium was 80% Nebraska fans a year ago. If they couldn't get the locals to show up, who can? Nebraska would actually be the better choice in this scenario, but I don't see them leaving the BIG now. They are seen as heroes.

The PAC is truly in a bad spot, mainly because 1) their top programs aren’t able to keep-up with elite programs in other conferences and 2) they have more than their fair share of lower value programs. The PAC’s geographic isolation is both an advantage and disadvantage.

If UT and OU don’t get a strong media deal for 2024, I could see UT/OU offering a 14 team combination of:
Southwest: UT, TTU, TCU, OU, OkSt, KU + mutually agreed university
Pacific: UW, OR, Stan, Cal, USC, UCLA and AZ

The final school would be one of ASU, UU or CU.

The PAC schools would likely still decline the offer, but it would offer hope for a top program that wants to compete at a national level.
Yesterday 03:04 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #106
RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
If the B1G's true goal, which seems to continually get lost, is to add more people and not necessarily better content:

If the B1G whiffs on Texas, where could they go to secure more people? Certainly no to the west, Nebraska ( or Kansas) hardly had enough population to count. If Missouri or Kentucky wont budge, and as history has shown; North Carolina and Virginia aren't interested, then moving east would be their only move.
That would mean stealing from the ACC again, with the goal of completely controlling the NE corridor and concentrating their marketing on the greater New York and greater Chicago markets.
Boston College and Pitt give the B1G control of the two largest metropolitan areas not already under their control in the east. A surrounded Syracuse may ask to be included if a fast fading Nebraska can escape back to their plains roots.
It also puts extreme pressure on Notre Dame to at the very least divide loyalties between the ACC and the B1G or even go so far as to offer the Irish a partial deal.
If this could guarantee ESPN content for not only the NE but for the entire B1G....they could make it happen.

Boston College, Rutgers, Maryland, Syracuse, Penn State, Pitt, Ohio State, Michigan State
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan

Nebraska replaces West Virginia, Big 12 stays at 10
West Virginia replaces Pitt, ACC becomes a 12 team league
SEC and PAC remain the same

Just a thought......
Today 05:23 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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Post: #107
RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(Today 05:23 AM)XLance Wrote:  If the B1G's true goal, which seems to continually get lost, is to add more people and not necessarily better content:

If the B1G whiffs on Texas, where could they go to secure more people? Certainly no to the west, Nebraska ( or Kansas) hardly had enough population to count. If Missouri or Kentucky wont budge, and as history has shown; North Carolina and Virginia aren't interested, then moving east would be their only move.
That would mean stealing from the ACC again, with the goal of completely controlling the NE corridor and concentrating their marketing on the greater New York and greater Chicago markets.
Boston College and Pitt give the B1G control of the two largest metropolitan areas not already under their control in the east. A surrounded Syracuse may ask to be included if a fast fading Nebraska can escape back to their plains roots.
It also puts extreme pressure on Notre Dame to at the very least divide loyalties between the ACC and the B1G or even go so far as to offer the Irish a partial deal.
If this could guarantee ESPN content for not only the NE but for the entire B1G....they could make it happen.

Boston College, Rutgers, Maryland, Syracuse, Penn State, Pitt, Ohio State, Michigan State
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan

Nebraska replaces West Virginia, Big 12 stays at 10
West Virginia replaces Pitt, ACC becomes a 12 team league
SEC and PAC remain the same

Just a thought......

03-lmfao Your post reminds me of a radio call-in show the Cincinnati Reds have here in Cincinnati. More often than not, you’ll get some yokel who will call in advocating the Reds trade a couple mediocre player for an All-Star (as if the other team will do that). Sure.. the ACC pawns off BC and Pitt to the B10... I am sure the B10 will be all over that (sarcasm alert).
Today 07:07 AM
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Thiefery Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(Yesterday 03:04 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(Yesterday 10:55 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  
(Yesterday 06:59 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Between the Big 12 and the Pac 12, the Big 12 is stronger at the top but the Pac 12 is stronger in the middle. If you ranked the 22 Big 12/Pac 12 schools by value to networks, no doubt UT and OU would be the top two but would any other Big 12 team even be in the top 10 of that list? The Pac 12 has four California schools, Oregon, Washington, two schools in Arizona (including one in the Phoenix metro area), and Colorado. Once you have Texas and Oklahoma, the rest of the Big 12 is mostly a bunch of second and third choice state schools and schools in irrelevant markets. The Pathetic 12 may be irrelevant nationally but they own the West Coast including the most populous state in the country. Colorado is one of the worst athletic programs in FBS now but they're the biggest show in Denver and that's meaningful. Iowa State? They don't even own Iowa. They own Ames? How many people is that?

If the networks could draft the most valuable programs from the Big 12 and Pac 12 conferences to start a new conference, a large majority would be from the Pac 12. We've actually done an exercise on CSNBB and we've confirmed that. So I think it's way more likely Texas/Oklahoma move to the Pac-12 than California schools to the Big 12. Academics again play a role because again university presidents usually call the shots. Do you think Berkeley's or Stanford's president wants to be associated with Texas Tech or Oklahoma State or West Virginia? They'd rather invite who they want from the Big 12 and call the shots.

I see that as well, but the PAC/Scott are in a bad spot. What can they do to possibly get UT/ou back in play again? Allow them to once again bring two others? Tech/osu? Allow Texas to continue it's deal with LHN?

If this thing really had a chance to work out.. it would be for the better that the three/four main schools decide to break out when the GOR expires and set up a new conference.

SC
UCLA
ASU
AZ
UW
OR
Utah

UT
ou
Tech
osu
CO
KU
ISU

I still don't like CO, since they have shown no life in sports.. I mean their stadium was 80% Nebraska fans a year ago. If they couldn't get the locals to show up, who can? Nebraska would actually be the better choice in this scenario, but I don't see them leaving the BIG now. They are seen as heroes.

The PAC is truly in a bad spot, mainly because 1) their top programs aren’t able to keep-up with elite programs in other conferences and 2) they have more than their fair share of lower value programs. The PAC’s geographic isolation is both an advantage and disadvantage.

If UT and OU don’t get a strong media deal for 2024, I could see UT/OU offering a 14 team combination of:
Southwest: UT, TTU, TCU, OU, OkSt, KU + mutually agreed university
Pacific: UW, OR, Stan, Cal, USC, UCLA and AZ

The final school would be one of ASU, UU or CU.

The PAC schools would likely still decline the offer, but it would offer hope for a top program that wants to compete at a national level.

Yep and even though your idea is sensible, I just don't think this works out.. It's probably better to do a pure SWC type of deal SC, UCLA, AZ, ASU, TT, UT, ou, osu, co, utah. Call it the SouthWest Airlines conference. round robin..top 2 play in the CCG, which rotates from JerryWorld and Vegas. I can only dream right?
Today 10:37 AM
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