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Poll: Which conference is most likely to see a member (or members) depart?
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Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
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Cowboy Frog Offline
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Post: #81
Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
USC is tired of getting MILLIONS OF DOLLARS LESS THAN NORTHWESTERN


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10-11-2020 08:08 PM
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clpp01 Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-11-2020 08:04 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 08:01 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  Stay tuned ... Ads trying to regroup as we speak .. The PAC could dissolve tonight


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What happens if they dissolve tonight? Does the network suddenly go dark?

The Pac-12 is obviously being bought out by the NFL and will be replacing the NFC East division because of how god awful it has turned into.
(This post was last modified: 10-11-2020 09:00 PM by clpp01.)
10-11-2020 08:46 PM
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texoma Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-11-2020 07:54 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  OU ain’t joining the Big 10 .. and NOBODYS recruiting Texas Tech ... However , RIGHT NOW .. The PAC is talking to SMU and Houston .. They want some Central Time Zone Games and Access to Texas recruiting .. We will see what happens
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If you mean the Big10 will not invite OU...you maybe right.
However, if the Big issues an invitation, the OU Administration has pretty well made it clear, if the Big10 invites OU they are gone. with or without Texas.
10-11-2020 08:55 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-11-2020 08:55 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 07:54 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  OU ain’t joining the Big 10 .. and NOBODYS recruiting Texas Tech ... However , RIGHT NOW .. The PAC is talking to SMU and Houston .. They want some Central Time Zone Games and Access to Texas recruiting .. We will see what happens
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If you mean the Big10 will not invite OU...you maybe right.
However, if the Big issues an invitation, the OU Administration has pretty well made it clear, if the Big10 invites OU they are gone. with or without Texas.


I played golf with an athletic director from a big 10 school last summer and he told me they only want Texas.

Also didn’t see them getting UT.
10-11-2020 09:01 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-11-2020 09:01 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 08:55 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 07:54 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  OU ain’t joining the Big 10 .. and NOBODYS recruiting Texas Tech ... However , RIGHT NOW .. The PAC is talking to SMU and Houston .. They want some Central Time Zone Games and Access to Texas recruiting .. We will see what happens
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If you mean the Big10 will not invite OU...you maybe right.
However, if the Big issues an invitation, the OU Administration has pretty well made it clear, if the Big10 invites OU they are gone. with or without Texas.


I played golf with an athletic director from a big 10 school last summer and he told me they only want Texas.

Also didn’t see them getting UT.

If I were the B1G, the two schools on the top of my list IF I wanted to go to 16 would be Missouri and Kentucky. The power of any conference is to be able to control a region. The B1G could make money with Texas, but the could never control the Southwest.
The problem the B1G has with my wish list is that they aren't powerful enough to take those schools away from the SEC.
When ESPN had the SEC pair Missouri with Texas A&M, they were able to thwart the Big Ten's "push out" expansion strategy.
At this point even their back-fill options (Iowa State, Pitt) would end up costing them money and the back-fill prize (Notre Dame) just isn't going to come into the fold. The market plays (Syracuse and Boston College) would be desperation moves as neither of those schools are institutional "fits".

The pending move of Notre Dame as a full member of the ACC is the one thing that could re-energize any further expansion.
10-12-2020 05:03 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-12-2020 05:03 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 09:01 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 08:55 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 07:54 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  OU ain’t joining the Big 10 .. and NOBODYS recruiting Texas Tech ... However , RIGHT NOW .. The PAC is talking to SMU and Houston .. They want some Central Time Zone Games and Access to Texas recruiting .. We will see what happens
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If you mean the Big10 will not invite OU...you maybe right.
However, if the Big issues an invitation, the OU Administration has pretty well made it clear, if the Big10 invites OU they are gone. with or without Texas.


I played golf with an athletic director from a big 10 school last summer and he told me they only want Texas.

Also didn’t see them getting UT.

If I were the B1G, the two schools on the top of my list IF I wanted to go to 16 would be Missouri and Kentucky. The power of any conference is to be able to control a region. The B1G could make money with Texas, but the could never control the Southwest.
The problem the B1G has with my wish list is that they aren't powerful enough to take those schools away from the SEC.
When ESPN had the SEC pair Missouri with Texas A&M, they were able to thwart the Big Ten's "push out" expansion strategy.
At this point even their back-fill options (Iowa State, Pitt) would end up costing them money and the back-fill prize (Notre Dame) just isn't going to come into the fold. The market plays (Syracuse and Boston College) would be desperation moves as neither of those schools are institutional "fits".

The pending move of Notre Dame as a full member of the ACC is the one thing that could re-energize any further expansion.

I don’t see how either program helps the Big Ten. Media value is predicated upon total viewership, not so much as to where those viewers are watching. Gaining some viewers on the periphery of the current footprint isn’t going to have much of a financial impact. The only way you see a big impact with Big Ten/SEC media value is if they add a big name program like Texas, Oklahoma, ND, Florida St, or Clemson.
10-12-2020 08:55 AM
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Thiefery Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
If Texas did go with Tech to the SEC, ou won't have the advantages of recruiting the DFW as before, even if they went to the Big10. ou feasted on Texas talent in the 80's, when the SWC was declining. However if you now have three schools in the state that belong to the SEC it's going to be much tougher. aggy doesn't really recruit well in DFW, however UT/Tech will do so.. and look at the opponents it's guaranteed to play.. Three TX schools, Arkansas, LSU, heck the most northern school would be Mizzu.. Telling me Texas kids will be ecstatic that they get to play in MN, WI, IA, IN, MI, etc?

All this to say is ou best plan is to stick with UT, if it forces it's hand by giving BIG a real thought, it's going to hurt them long term. At that point UT will give into it's BORs and look at the fiscal responsible thing.. Keep Texas playing Texas schools along with neighbor states that will easily reignite rivalries. These BMDs go golfing with each other in Dallas, Houston.. It's a no brainer.

As far as the other comment.. so the PAC is going to dissolve? Then invite SMU and Houston? If there was ever a desperate play that would be it.. That would signal SC going independent, no?
10-13-2020 08:16 AM
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texoma Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-13-2020 08:16 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  If Texas did go with Tech to the SEC, ou won't have the advantages of recruiting the DFW as before, even if they went to the Big10. ou feasted on Texas talent in the 80's, when the SWC was declining. However if you now have three schools in the state that belong to the SEC it's going to be much tougher. aggy doesn't really recruit well in DFW, however UT/Tech will do so.. and look at the opponents it's guaranteed to play.. Three TX schools, Arkansas, LSU, heck the most northern school would be Mizzu.. Telling me Texas kids will be ecstatic that they get to play in MN, WI, IA, IN, MI, etc?

All this to say is ou best plan is to stick with UT, if it forces it's hand by giving BIG a real thought, it's going to hurt them long term. At that point UT will give into it's BORs and look at the fiscal responsible thing.. Keep Texas playing Texas schools along with neighbor states that will easily reignite rivalries. These BMDs go golfing with each other in Dallas, Houston.. It's a no brainer.

As far as the other comment.. so the PAC is going to dissolve? Then invite SMU and Houston? If there was ever a desperate play that would be it.. That would signal SC going independent, no?


We have discussed this before and you are still incorrect about OU recruiting. OU has feasted on Texas recruiting since the 1950's...not just the 1980's.... and will continue to do so even if they join the Big10 without Texas.
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2020 08:11 PM by texoma.)
10-13-2020 03:08 PM
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Thiefery Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-13-2020 03:08 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(10-13-2020 08:16 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  If Texas did go with Tech to the SEC, ou won't have the advantages of recruiting the DFW as before, even if they went to the Big10. ou feasted on Texas talent in the 80's, when the SWC was declining. However if you now have three schools in the state that belong to the SEC it's going to be much tougher. aggy doesn't really recruit well in DFW, however UT/Tech will do so.. and look at the opponents it's guaranteed to play.. Three TX schools, Arkansas, LSU, heck the most northern school would be Mizzu.. Telling me Texas kids will be ecstatic that they get to play in MN, WI, IA, IN, MI, etc?

All this to say is ou best plan is to stick with UT, if it forces it's hand by giving BIG a real thought, it's going to hurt them long term. At that point UT will give into it's BORs and look at the fiscal responsible thing.. Keep Texas playing Texas schools along with neighbor states that will easily reignite rivalries. These BMDs go golfing with each other in Dallas, Houston.. It's a no brainer.

As far as the other comment.. so the PAC is going to dissolve? Then invite SMU and Houston? If there was ever a desperate play that would be it.. That would signal SC going independent, no?


We have discussed this before and you are still incorrect about OU recruiting. OU has feasted on Texas recruiting since the 1950's...not just the 1980's.... and will continue to do so even if they join the Big10 without Texas.

it's not 1950 anymore.. They won't be getting the top kids from TX as frequently, hell they don't get them all now, despite UT/aggy struggling as bad as they have.
10-14-2020 06:53 AM
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texoma Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-14-2020 06:53 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  
(10-13-2020 03:08 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(10-13-2020 08:16 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  If Texas did go with Tech to the SEC, ou won't have the advantages of recruiting the DFW as before, even if they went to the Big10. ou feasted on Texas talent in the 80's, when the SWC was declining. However if you now have three schools in the state that belong to the SEC it's going to be much tougher. aggy doesn't really recruit well in DFW, however UT/Tech will do so.. and look at the opponents it's guaranteed to play.. Three TX schools, Arkansas, LSU, heck the most northern school would be Mizzu.. Telling me Texas kids will be ecstatic that they get to play in MN, WI, IA, IN, MI, etc?

All this to say is ou best plan is to stick with UT, if it forces it's hand by giving BIG a real thought, it's going to hurt them long term. At that point UT will give into it's BORs and look at the fiscal responsible thing.. Keep Texas playing Texas schools along with neighbor states that will easily reignite rivalries. These BMDs go golfing with each other in Dallas, Houston.. It's a no brainer.

As far as the other comment.. so the PAC is going to dissolve? Then invite SMU and Houston? If there was ever a desperate play that would be it.. That would signal SC going independent, no?


We have discussed this before and you are still incorrect about OU recruiting. OU has feasted on Texas recruiting since the 1950's...not just the 1980's.... and will continue to do so even if they join the Big10 without Texas.

it's not 1950 anymore.. They won't be getting the top kids from TX as frequently, hell they don't get them all now, despite UT/aggy struggling as bad as they have.


Who said it was 1950 and nobody said OU gets them all. They never have gotten them all and never will. No body ever gets them all, there are too many. My goodness, lets try to be reasonable!
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2020 04:38 PM by texoma.)
10-14-2020 03:21 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-11-2020 09:01 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 08:55 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 07:54 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  OU ain’t joining the Big 10 .. and NOBODYS recruiting Texas Tech ... However , RIGHT NOW .. The PAC is talking to SMU and Houston .. They want some Central Time Zone Games and Access to Texas recruiting .. We will see what happens
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If you mean the Big10 will not invite OU...you maybe right.
However, if the Big issues an invitation, the OU Administration has pretty well made it clear, if the Big10 invites OU they are gone. with or without Texas.


I played golf with an athletic director from a big 10 school last summer and he told me they only want Texas.

Also didn’t see them getting UT.

Texas would be at the top of every P5 conference list.
Texas represents too much money and power for any of them to pass up.
But...Texas, would bring a unique set of challenges to each of those conferences which they might not want.
10-16-2020 04:51 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-16-2020 04:51 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 09:01 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 08:55 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 07:54 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  OU ain’t joining the Big 10 .. and NOBODYS recruiting Texas Tech ... However , RIGHT NOW .. The PAC is talking to SMU and Houston .. They want some Central Time Zone Games and Access to Texas recruiting .. We will see what happens
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

If you mean the Big10 will not invite OU...you maybe right.
However, if the Big issues an invitation, the OU Administration has pretty well made it clear, if the Big10 invites OU they are gone. with or without Texas.


I played golf with an athletic director from a big 10 school last summer and he told me they only want Texas.

Also didn’t see them getting UT.

Texas would be at the top of every P5 conference list.
Texas represents too much money and power for any of them to pass up.
But...Texas, would bring a unique set of challenges to each of those conferences which they might not want.

Bringing in Texas is a bit like getting a pit bull—they are strong willed, aggressive, and will run the house if you let them.
10-16-2020 10:41 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
In 2024 I’ll be interested in what route ESPN takes in realignment and media deals.

If they need volume I could see them trying to lock down a reshuffled, pseudo merger of the Big 12 and PAC 12

I can also see them trying to shuffle Texas and/or Oklahoma into the SEC so they can devalue the Big 12 media property and cut costs.
10-16-2020 10:45 AM
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texoma Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-16-2020 10:41 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(10-16-2020 04:51 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 09:01 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 08:55 PM)texoma Wrote:  
(10-11-2020 07:54 PM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  OU ain’t joining the Big 10 .. and NOBODYS recruiting Texas Tech ... However , RIGHT NOW .. The PAC is talking to SMU and Houston .. They want some Central Time Zone Games and Access to Texas recruiting .. We will see what happens
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If you mean the Big10 will not invite OU...you maybe right.
However, if the Big issues an invitation, the OU Administration has pretty well made it clear, if the Big10 invites OU they are gone. with or without Texas.


I played golf with an athletic director from a big 10 school last summer and he told me they only want Texas.

Also didn’t see them getting UT.

Texas would be at the top of every P5 conference list.
Texas represents too much money and power for any of them to pass up.
But...Texas, would bring a unique set of challenges to each of those conferences which they might not want.

Bringing in Texas is a bit like getting a pit bull—they are strong willed, aggressive, and will run the house if you let them.

I agree with both XLance and Muskie. Texas is Texas. Muskie that is funny, but true.
10-16-2020 11:59 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
I appreciate that Texoma. Texas is a top flight program—they just need to find their footing and return to their winning ways.

A lot of folks like to talk in absolutes about what Texas won’t do. There’s a persistent belief that Texas is firmly committed to the Big 12. If you look at history though, in 1994 Texas made the decision to make a move to keep themselves at the top of the tv revenue pack.

I don’t see why anything would keep them from doing it before.

I don’t think they have any particular affinity for WVU, Kansas, K St, Iowa St, or Oklahoma St. There’s not the ancient ties that tie members of other conferences together.

They enjoy their rivalry with Oklahoma and I think that’s a rivalry they want to maintain but it was OOC for decades and could revert to that status.

They abandoned TCU once and I think they would again if push comes to shove. Baylor tagged along in the SWC-Big 8 merger because they needed a 12th for the CCG and they had to in order to get the governor’s blessing.

Texas Tech is the one school the Texas legislature is probably going to want to ensure gets taken care of.
10-16-2020 03:43 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
I find it interesting that no one on this thread took the approach that not one of the "lesser" schools in a major conference (Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Northwestern) would voluntarily drop down to a different league or (as some poster touts) become a partial member of their current conference.
The consensus seems to be that the Big 12 is still on the chopping block and schools already in one of the other P4 conferences are there to stay.
10-18-2020 09:27 AM
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Cowboy Frog Offline
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Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
The PAC 12 is in terrible shape ... Very little fan interest .. Bad political environment .. Poor payouts per school ... Northwestern and Wake enjoy much more income from media contracts than does USC ... Something will give ..


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10-18-2020 10:32 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-18-2020 09:27 AM)XLance Wrote:  I find it interesting that no one on this thread took the approach that not one of the "lesser" schools in a major conference (Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Northwestern) would voluntarily drop down to a different league or (as some poster touts) become a partial member of their current conference.
The consensus seems to be that the Big 12 is still on the chopping block and schools already in one of the other P4 conferences are there to stay.

Why would they? They are getting $50M a year (WF $30M) to rub elbows with their conference mates. Nobody expects them to win at a high level.
10-18-2020 06:21 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-18-2020 09:27 AM)XLance Wrote:  I find it interesting that no one on this thread took the approach that not one of the "lesser" schools in a major conference (Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Northwestern) would voluntarily drop down to a different league or (as some poster touts) become a partial member of their current conference.
The consensus seems to be that the Big 12 is still on the chopping block and schools already in one of the other P4 conferences are there to stay.

I believe that the academically elite universities (e.g., Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Stanford and Duke) actually have a pretty good set-up. Not sure that these universities are anxious about any impending realignment.

Vandy and NW are effectively hanging-on to the coattails of the big boys in their conferences. They are adding academic prestige to their respective conferences (providing some cover for the Universities of Florida and Michigan) while cashing $50M+ in annual distributions and trying to maintain the bare-minimum standard of athletic relevance. NW was gifted the inclusion of Rutgers into the BIG, plus the periodic self-destruction of others’ football programs (see Illini and Purdue)...making comparisons to their performance look good. Vandy has had a more difficult time because of the depth of the SEC...there are just fewer programs with consistently inept athletic departments. As conferences have gotten larger, the pressure for the academic elites to carry-their-own-weight in terms of athletic performance, has lessened.

Stanford and Duke have actually created nice athletic niches. Their programs actually are above their conference averages in terms of value. These schools are not just in their conferences because of history and academic prestige, they are actually trying to succeed at winning athletically.
(This post was last modified: 10-19-2020 09:29 AM by Wahoowa84.)
10-19-2020 09:15 AM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Which P5 will see a member depart the soonest?
(10-18-2020 10:32 AM)Cowboy Frog Wrote:  The PAC 12 is in terrible shape ... Very little fan interest .. Bad political environment .. Poor payouts per school ... Northwestern and Wake enjoy much more income from media contracts than does USC ... Something will give ..


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So are you predicting that Southern Cal is going to be the first to blink?
10-25-2020 02:51 PM
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