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Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
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jedclampett Online
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Exclamation Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
.

Q: Though it may seem unlikely, at present, is it conceivable that anything could possibly happen to cause the FB viewership for the G5 (or some G5 conferences) to increase to the point at which it could begin to approach G5 viewership at some point in the next century (by 2120)?

An examination of the fundamentals underlying the FBS viewership base on a school by school basis may surprise some CFB fans.

.

The challenge is great. CFB fans who focus their attention on the current viewership numbers are pessimistic, since only a few G5 schools (BYU, Boise, Memphis, Cincy, etc.), to date, have played non-P5 games that generated 2 million+ in viewership.

However, perhaps it's possible that the current viewership numbers aren't the best kind of evidence to use in estimating what the viewership patterns will be 30 or 40 years from now.

.

Q: What other kinds of data could one use to estimate future G5 and P5 viewership levels?

A: One approach would be to study the archived data on multi-year trends in viewership in previous years, with a particular emphasis on identifying which schools experienced the most dramatic increases in viewership.

This would require hiring a team of data analysts to compile all the available data and conduct thorough, sophisticated statistical analyses to identify the factors that those schools (a) had in common, and (b) were most predictive of increased viewership.

Another approach would be to begin with a short list of factors that are already known to be correlated with CFB viewership on a school-by-school basis.

One such factor is the size of a school's potential CFB fan base.

Q: Can it be possible that a school's potential FB fan base could be much greater a decade from now than its current ticket sales and FB viewership numbers would suggest?

A: Definitely. In fact, it's not uncommon for there to be dramatic and unexpected increases in the size of a school's fan base from one season to the next.

For example, Kansas reported a 74.4% increase in attendance between 2018 and 2019.

https://footballfoundation.org/news/2020...tings.aspx

.

Q: Ok, so it's apparently well established that a school's potential fan base support can be much greater than it happens to be, at present, but what are the factors that can be used to predict a school's potential fan base 20 or 30 years into the future?

A: To make such long-term estimates, one needs to examine the most fundamental factors, such as the local population density in a school's region, and their current and projected enrollment numbers.

Q: What difference does a school's enrollment make?

A: Universities with large enrollments tend, in most cases, to have a much larger pool of young men (and some young women) who are college football fans and might become part of their teams' fan base. In many cases, they have friends and family members who might be drawn into the team's fan base.

More importantly, the size of a school's enrollment determines the number of future alumni that the school will have in the future. For every student enrolled, there are/will be ~10 future alumni (e.g., Michigan's enrollment is 44,718 and they have ~500,000 alumni).
.

============================================

Q: So, if we're going to focus on enrollment, as one of the fundamental factors that influences the potential size of a university's future fan base, what do the enrollment numbers suggest about the potential future viewership of the G5 conferences?

A: The available data from an examination of the data from a partial list of 20+ States with P5 or G5 schools appear to suggest that the G5 enrollment (and future alumni) totals are very comparable with the total enrollments of the P5 universities.


============================================

.

A Partial List of States where G5 enrollment exceeds P5 enrollment:

.

Ohio enrollments:

P5 (Ohio State) 61,170

G5 (Cincy, Ohio, Kent State, Toledo, Miami/OH, Akron, & BGU): 170,931

In Ohio, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 109,761 students


.

Florida enrollments:

P5 (Florida, Florida St., & Miami): 104,631

G5 (UCF, USF, FIU, & FAU): 203,953

In Florida, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 99,322 students



.

Nevada enrollments

P5 (None): 0

G5 (Nevada & UNLV): 51,940

In Nevada, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 51,940 students

.


Hawaii enrollments

P5 (None): 0

G5 (U. Hawaii system): 50,310

In Hawaii, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 50,310 students

.

Utah enrollments:

P5 (Utah): 33,023

G5 (Utah St. & BYU): 62,431

In Utah, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 29,408 students


.

Louisiana enrollments:

P5 (LSU): 30,983

G5 (Tulane, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe, & LA Tech): 51,474

In Louisiana, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 20,491 students

.

Texas enrollments:

P5 (Texas (at Austin), TAMU, Baylor, TX Tech, & TCU): 183,380

G5 (Houston, SMU, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, & Texas State): 197,155

In Texas, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 13,375 students

.

Massachusetts enrollments:

P5 (BC): 14,125

G5 (UMass): 28,635

In Massachusetts, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 14,510 students

.

New York enrollments:

P5 (Syracuse): 22,803

G5 (SUNY-Buffalo): 31,503

In New York, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 9,700 students


.

Colorado enrollments:

P5 (Colorado): 33,246

G5 (CSU & Air Force): 37,143

In Colorado, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 3,897 students

.

Idaho enrollments

P5 (None): 0

G5 (Boise St.): 22,227

In Idaho, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 22,227 students


.

Tennessee enrollments:

P5 (Tennessee & Vanderbilt): 41,007

G5 (Memphis & MTSU): 42,498

In Tennessee, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 1,491 students


Summary, in these States, the total G5 enrollment exceeds the total P5 enrollment by approximately 415,000.


============================================

.

A Partial list of States where P5 enrollment exceeds G5 enrollment:

.

California enrollments

P5 (UCLA, Cal, USC, & Stanford): 151,262

G5 (SDSU, SJSU, & Fresno State): 95,069

In California, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 56,193 students

.

Indiana enrollments

P5 (Indiana, Purdue, & Notre Dame): 100,584

G5 (Ball State): 21,884

In Indiana, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 78,700 students


.

Pennsylvania enrollments

P5 (PSU & Pitt): 75,483

G5 (Temple): 39,740

In Pennsylvania, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 35,743 students

.

Virginia enrollments

P5 (Virginia & VT): 52,583

G5 (Old Dominion): 24,932

In Virginia, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 26,651 students

.

Michigan enrollments

P5 (Michigan, MSU): 95,060

G5 (CMU, EMU, & WMU): 71,957

In Michigan, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 23,105 students


.

Maryland enrollments

P5 (U. Maryland): 30,760

G5 (U.S. Naval Academy): 4,400

In Maryland, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 26,360 students

.

Alabama enrollments

P5 (Alabama & Auburn): 65,192

G5 (UAB, South Alabama, & Troy): 53,738

In Alabama, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 12,174 students.

.

Georgia enrollments

P5 (Georgia, GT): 71,375

G5 (Georgia State, Georgia Southern): 60,724

In Georgia, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 10,651 students

.

North Carolina enrollments

P5 (UNC, NC State, Duke, & Wake Forest): 86,294

G5 (ECU, Charlotte, & Appalachian State): 26,257

In North Carolina, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 10,037 students



Summary: in these States, the total G5 enrollment exceeds the total P5 enrollment by approximately 300,000 students.



============================================

Summary: The G5 enrollment totals above appear to suggest that, when the remaining comparisons are completed, they are likely to indicate that the total enrollments (and future alumni bases) of the G5 and P5 universities are (and will be) quite similar in size.

Q: Does this necessarily mean that total G5 FBS viewership will increase in the decades ahead?

A: No, but it does suggest that the potential FBS viewership of the G5 conferences' might be sufficiently large to permit a dramatic viewership increase in future decade.
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2020 03:29 PM by jedclampett.)
09-21-2020 02:27 PM
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otown Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
You cannot discount T shirt fans. Those who never set foot in the school they root for simply because it is a known commodity.
09-21-2020 02:30 PM
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Carolina_Low_Country Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
Regional G5 games would go a long way
09-21-2020 02:39 PM
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pesik Offline
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RE: Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
all of this article feels unnecessary and lacks any realistic context

the biggest flaw...the g5 has been around 8 years total..100% of people thnk the landscape will change in 5-6 years ..this hypothetical has some sort of assumption that the p5/g5 will b around fro 100 years

the more minor flaws: their entire basis for their argument is viewership and enrollemnt trends which are some of the most insignificant trend in projecting long term viewership..
p5 viewership is elevated by casual fans and state loyalty NOT alumni...viewership trends are good fro short term projection but completely useless in long term projections, as viewership tends to be tied to TV contract stipulations (how many games you get in this specific channel at this time)- who knows what thatll be in 30-100years

the most important piece they didnt even acknowledge: access to the playoffs...without access to the playoff (real title) g5 will ALWAYS have a glass ceiling...we will never surpass the p5 without that....with access to a legitimate title..the entire g5 still wont surpass the p5, but individual conferences like the aac could surpass the p5,if they are getting some titles... casual fans want to watch title contenders
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2020 02:51 PM by pesik.)
09-21-2020 02:50 PM
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panama Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
(09-21-2020 02:27 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

Q: Though it may seem unlikely, at present, is it conceivable that anything could possibly happen to cause the FB viewership for the G5 (or some G5 conferences) to increase to the point at which it could begin to approach G5 viewership at some point in the next century (by 2120)?

An examination of the fundamentals underlying the FBS viewership base on a school by school basis may surprise some CFB fans.

.

The challenge is great. CFB fans who focus their attention on the current viewership numbers are pessimistic, since only a few G5 schools (BYU, Boise, Memphis, Cincy, etc.), to date, have played non-P5 games that generated 2 million+ in viewership.

However, perhaps it's possible that the current viewership numbers aren't the best kind of evidence to use in estimating what the viewership patterns will be 30 or 40 years from now.

.

Q: What other kinds of data could one use to estimate future G5 and P5 viewership levels?

A: One approach would be to study the archived data on multi-year trends in viewership in previous years, with a particular emphasis on identifying which schools experienced the most dramatic increases in viewership.

This would require hiring a team of data analysts to compile all the available data and conduct thorough, sophisticated statistical analyses to identify the factors that those schools (a) had in common, and (b) were most predictive of increased viewership.

Another approach would be to begin with a short list of factors that are already known to be correlated with CFB viewership on a school-by-school basis.

One such factor is the size of a school's potential CFB fan base.

Q: Can it be possible that a school's potential FB fan base could be much greater a decade from now than its current ticket sales and FB viewership numbers would suggest?

A: Definitely. In fact, it's not uncommon for there to be dramatic and unexpected increases in the size of a school's fan base from one season to the next.

For example, Kansas reported a 74.4% increase in attendance between 2018 and 2019.

https://footballfoundation.org/news/2020...tings.aspx

.

Q: Ok, so it's apparently well established that a school's potential fan base support can be much greater than it happens to be, at present, but what are the factors that can be used to predict a school's potential fan base 20 or 30 years into the future?

A: To make such long-term estimates, one needs to examine the most fundamental factors, such as the local population density in a school's region, and their current and projected enrollment numbers.

Q: What difference does a school's enrollment make?

A: Universities with large enrollments tend, in most cases, to have a much larger pool of young men (and some young women) who are college football fans and might become part of their teams' fan base. In many cases, they have friends and family members who might be drawn into the team's fan base.

More importantly, the size of a school's enrollment determines the number of future alumni that the school will have in the future. For every student enrolled, there are/will be ~10 future alumni (e.g.,, Michigan's enrollment is 44,718 and they have ~500,000 alumni).
.

============================================

Q: So, if we're going to focus on enrollment, as one of the fundamental factors that influences the potential size of a university's future fan base, what do the enrollment numbers suggest about the potential future viewership of the G5 conferences?

A: The available data from an examination of the data from a partial list of 20 States with P5 or G5 schools appear to suggest that the G5 enrollment (and future alumni) totals may be likely match or exceed the enrollments at the P5 universities.


============================================

.

A Partial List of States where G5 enrollment exceeds P5 enrollment:

.

Ohio enrollments:

P5 (Ohio State) 61,170

G5 (Cincy, Ohio, Kent State, Toledo, Miami/OH, Akron, & BGU): 170,931

In Ohio, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 109,761 students


.

Florida enrollments:

P5 (Florida, Florida St., & Miami): 104,631

G5 (UCF, USF, FIU, & FAU): 203,953

In Florida, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 99,322 students



.

Nevada enrollments

P5 (None): 0

G5 (Nevada & UNLV): 51,940

In Nevada, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 51,940 students

.

Hawaii enrollments

P5 (None): 0

G5 (U. Hawaii system): 50,310

In Hawaii, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 50,310 students

.

Utah enrollments:

P5 (Utah): 33,023

G5 (Utah St. & BYU): 62,431

In Utah, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 29,408 students


.

Louisiana enrollments:

P5 (LSU): 30,983

G5 (Tulane, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe, & LA Tech): 51,474

In Louisiana, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 20,491 students

.

Texas enrollments:

P5 (Texas (at Austin), TAMU, Baylor, TX Tech, & TCU): 183,380

G5 (Houston, SMU, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, & Texas State): 197,155

In Texas, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 13,375 students

.

New York enrollments:

P5 (Syracuse): 22,803

G5 (SUNY-Buffalo): 31,503

In New York, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 9,700 students


.

Utah enrollments:

P5 (Utah): 33,023

G5 (Utah St. & BYU): 62,431

In Colorado, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 29,408 students


.

Colorado enrollments:

P5 (Colorado): 33,246

G5 (CSU & Air Force): 37,143

In Colorado, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 3,897 students

.

Idaho enrollments

P5 (None): 0

G5 (Boise St.): 22,227

In Idaho, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 22,227 students


.

Tennessee enrollments:

P5 (Tennessee & Vanderbilt): 41,007

G5 (Memphis & MTSU): 42,498

In Tennessee, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 1,491 students


============================================

.

A Partial list of States where P5 enrollment exceeds G5 enrollment:

.

California enrollments

P5 (UCLA, Cal, USC, & Stanford): 151,262

G5 (SDSU, SJSU, & Fresno State): 95,069

In California, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 56,193 students

.

Indiana enrollments

P5 (Indiana, Purdue, & Notre Dame): 100,584

G5 (Ball State): 21,884

In Michigan, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 78,700 students


.

Virginia enrollments

P5 (Virginia & VT): 52,583

G5 (Old Dominion): 24,932

In Virginia, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 26,651 students



.

Michigan enrollments

P5 (Michigan, MSU): 95,060

G5 (CMU, EMU, & WMU): 71,957

In Michigan, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 23,105 students


.

Maryland enrollments

P5 (U. Maryland): 30,760

G5 (U.S. Naval Academy): 4,400

In Maryland, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 26,360 students

.

Alabama enrollments

P5 (Alabama & Auburn): 65,192

G5 (UAB, South Alabama, & Troy): 53,738

In Alabama, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 12,174 students.

.

Georgia enrollments

P5 (Georgia, GT): 71,375

G5 (Georgia State, Georgia Southern): 60,724

In Georgia, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 10,651 students

.

North Carolina enrollments

P5 (UNC, NC State, Duke, & Wake Forest): 86,294

G5 (ECU, Charlotte, & Appalachian State): 26,257

In North Carolina, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 10,037 students
Do I still have time to drop this class?

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09-21-2020 02:58 PM
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panama Offline
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RE: Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
(09-21-2020 02:50 PM)pesik Wrote:  all of this article feels unnecessary and lacks any realistic context

the biggest flaw...the g5 has been around 8 years total..100% of people thnk the landscape will change in 5-6 years ..this hypothetical has some sort of assumption that the p5/g5 will b around fro 100 years

the more minor flaws: their entire basis for their argument is viewership and enrollemnt trends which are some of the most insignificant trend in projecting long term viewership..
p5 viewership is elevated by casual fans and state loyalty NOT alumni...viewership trends are good fro short term projection but completely useless in long term projections, as viewership tends to be tied to TV contract stipulations (how many games you get in this specific channel at this time)- who knows what thatll be in 30-100years

the most important piece they didnt even acknowledge: access to the playoffs...without access to the playoff (real title) g5 will ALWAYS have a glass ceiling...we will never surpass the p5 without that....with access to a legitimate title..the entire g5 still wont surpass the p5, but individual conferences like the aac could surpass the p5,if they are getting some titles... casual fans want to watch title contenders
We keep changing the name but mid majors and majors have been around for decades.

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09-21-2020 02:59 PM
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jedclampett Online
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Post: #7
RE: Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
(09-21-2020 02:50 PM)pesik Wrote:  all of this article feels unnecessary and lacks any realistic context

the biggest flaw...the g5 has been around 8 years total..100% of people thnk the landscape will change in 5-6 years ..this hypothetical has some sort of assumption that the p5/g5 will b around fro 100 years

the more minor flaws: their entire basis for their argument is viewership and enrollemnt trends which are some of the most insignificant trend in projecting long term viewership..
p5 viewership is elevated by casual fans and state loyalty NOT alumni...viewership trends are good fro short term projection but completely useless in long term projections, as viewership tends to be tied to TV contract stipulations (how many games you get in this specific channel at this time)- who knows what thatll be in 30-100years

the most important piece they didnt even acknowledge: access to the playoffs...without access to the playoff (real title) g5 will ALWAYS have a glass ceiling...we will never surpass the p5 without that....with access to a legitimate title..the entire g5 still wont surpass the p5, but individual conferences like the aac could surpass the p5,if they are getting some titles... casual fans want to watch title contenders

.

Some folks think that things will always stay more or less the same.

There's a song about that:

"That's just the way it is."

"Some things will never change."

"Ah, but don't you believe them"

Bruce Hornsby




(This post was last modified: 09-21-2020 03:23 PM by jedclampett.)
09-21-2020 03:20 PM
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panama Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
(09-21-2020 03:20 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(09-21-2020 02:50 PM)pesik Wrote:  all of this article feels unnecessary and lacks any realistic context

the biggest flaw...the g5 has been around 8 years total..100% of people thnk the landscape will change in 5-6 years ..this hypothetical has some sort of assumption that the p5/g5 will b around fro 100 years

the more minor flaws: their entire basis for their argument is viewership and enrollemnt trends which are some of the most insignificant trend in projecting long term viewership..
p5 viewership is elevated by casual fans and state loyalty NOT alumni...viewership trends are good fro short term projection but completely useless in long term projections, as viewership tends to be tied to TV contract stipulations (how many games you get in this specific channel at this time)- who knows what thatll be in 30-100years

the most important piece they didnt even acknowledge: access to the playoffs...without access to the playoff (real title) g5 will ALWAYS have a glass ceiling...we will never surpass the p5 without that....with access to a legitimate title..the entire g5 still wont surpass the p5, but individual conferences like the aac could surpass the p5,if they are getting some titles... casual fans want to watch title contenders

.

Some folks think that things will always stay more or less the same.

There's a song about that:

"That's just the way it is."

"Some things will never change."

"Ah, but don't you believe them"

Bruce Hornsby




So ...Bruce Hornsby songs over history. Okay.

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09-21-2020 03:25 PM
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CliftonAve Online
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Post: #9
RE: Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
I usually don't browse the Off Topic forum, so I just latched on to the thread. I can speak for Ohio, the state that I reside in. Very few Ohio MAC students and grads aren't mega Ohio State fans. Toledo and Ohio might be the only two were the students and alums have any sense of obligation to support for their universities. My wife's two cousins both recently graduated from Kent State and caught one KSU ever: when the Golden Flashes played at Ohio State. If you go to Miami, Akron, Bowling Green, or Kent State and walk around campus you'll see as much OSU gear as anything.

Even UC has a lot of OSU fans in its alumni base, particularly people that did not grow up in Cincinnati- outside of Cincinnati there is an sense of duty that is instilled that you are committing an act of treason if you are not an OSU fan. Like clockwork, the UC Student Newspaper will get some editorial each year from some kid who grew up in Columbus/Dayton/Cleveland who will ask why people in Cincinnati don't root for OSU like the rest of the state. Its an obsession with these people.

The people who did not attend college are the biggest OSU homers of the bunch. They'll literally slit your throat if you disrespect the Buckeyes.
10-01-2020 08:00 AM
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Post: #10
RE: Q: Could G5 FB viewership ever match the P5s? A: G5 enrollment may exceed the P5's
When I attended Miami, many students showed up to campus already a lifelong fan of another program....be it OSU, Michigan or Notre Dame...in my case it was UC. Whatever their family was into. Game days students would stay home or go to a bar to watch their favorite team while Yeager Stadium sat empty. I think this is a more common phenomenon across the board than people think. Unless its a culture of your school being the can't miss event on game day (my kid went to Alabama...it is) just paying tuition doesn't turn you into a rabid fan.
10-04-2020 10:41 AM
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