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Q: Though it may seem unlikely, at present, is it conceivable that anything could
possibly happen to cause the FB viewership for the G5 (or some G5 conferences) to increase to the point at which it could begin to approach G5 viewership at some point in the next century (by 2120)?
An examination of the fundamentals underlying the FBS viewership base on a school by school basis may surprise some CFB fans.
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The challenge is great. CFB fans who focus their attention on the current viewership numbers are pessimistic, since only a few G5 schools (BYU, Boise, Memphis, Cincy, etc.), to date, have played non-P5 games that generated 2 million+ in viewership.
However, perhaps it's possible that the current viewership numbers aren't the best kind of evidence to use in estimating what the viewership patterns will be 30 or 40 years from now.
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Q: What other kinds of data could one use to estimate future G5 and P5 viewership levels?
A: One approach would be to study the archived data on multi-year trends in viewership in previous years, with a particular emphasis on identifying which schools experienced the most dramatic increases in viewership.
This would require hiring a team of data analysts to compile all the available data and conduct thorough, sophisticated statistical analyses to identify the factors that those schools (a) had in common, and (b) were most predictive of increased viewership.
Another approach would be to begin with a short list of factors that are already known to be correlated with CFB viewership on a school-by-school basis.
One such factor is the size of a school's
potential CFB fan base.
Q: Can it be possible that a school's
potential FB fan base could be much greater a decade from now than its current ticket sales and FB viewership numbers would suggest?
A: Definitely. In fact, it's not uncommon for there to be dramatic and unexpected increases in the size of a school's fan base from one season to the next.
For example, Kansas reported a 74.4% increase in attendance between 2018 and 2019.
https://footballfoundation.org/news/2020...tings.aspx
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Q: Ok, so it's apparently well established that a school's
potential fan base support can be much greater than it happens to be, at present, but what are the factors that can be used to predict a school's
potential fan base 20 or 30 years into the future?
A: To make such long-term estimates, one needs to examine the most fundamental factors, such as the local population density in a school's region, and their current and projected enrollment numbers.
Q: What difference does a school's enrollment make?
A: Universities with large enrollments tend, in most cases, to have a much larger pool of young men (and some young women) who are college football fans and might become part of their teams' fan base. In many cases, they have friends and family members who might be drawn into the team's fan base.
More importantly, the size of a school's enrollment determines the number of future alumni that the school will have in the future.
For every student enrolled, there are/will be ~10 future alumni (e.g., Michigan's enrollment is 44,718 and they have ~500,000 alumni).
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Q: So, if we're going to focus on enrollment, as one of the fundamental factors that influences the potential size of a university's future fan base, what do the enrollment numbers suggest about the potential future viewership of the G5 conferences?
A:
The available data from an examination of the data from a partial list of 20+ States with P5 or G5 schools appear to suggest that the G5 enrollment (and future alumni) totals are very comparable with the total enrollments of the P5 universities.
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A Partial List of States where G5 enrollment exceeds P5 enrollment:
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Ohio enrollments:
P5 (Ohio State) 61,170
G5 (Cincy, Ohio, Kent State, Toledo, Miami/OH, Akron, & BGU): 170,931
In Ohio, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 109,761 students
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Florida enrollments:
P5 (Florida, Florida St., & Miami): 104,631
G5 (UCF, USF, FIU, & FAU): 203,953
In Florida, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 99,322 students
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Nevada enrollments
P5 (None): 0
G5 (Nevada & UNLV): 51,940
In Nevada, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 51,940 students
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Hawaii enrollments
P5 (None): 0
G5 (U. Hawaii system): 50,310
In Hawaii, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 50,310 students
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Utah enrollments:
P5 (Utah): 33,023
G5 (Utah St. & BYU): 62,431
In Utah, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 29,408 students
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Louisiana enrollments:
P5 (LSU): 30,983
G5 (Tulane, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe, & LA Tech): 51,474
In Louisiana, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 20,491 students
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Texas enrollments:
P5 (Texas (at Austin), TAMU, Baylor, TX Tech, & TCU): 183,380
G5 (Houston, SMU, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas, & Texas State): 197,155
In Texas, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 13,375 students
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Massachusetts enrollments:
P5 (BC): 14,125
G5 (UMass): 28,635
In Massachusetts, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 14,510 students
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New York enrollments:
P5 (Syracuse): 22,803
G5 (SUNY-Buffalo): 31,503
In New York, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 9,700 students
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Colorado enrollments:
P5 (Colorado): 33,246
G5 (CSU & Air Force): 37,143
In Colorado, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 3,897 students
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Idaho enrollments
P5 (None): 0
G5 (Boise St.): 22,227
In Idaho, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 22,227 students
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Tennessee enrollments:
P5 (Tennessee & Vanderbilt): 41,007
G5 (Memphis & MTSU): 42,498
In Tennessee, the G5 enrollments exceed the P5's by 1,491 students
Summary, in these States, the total G5 enrollment exceeds the total P5 enrollment by approximately 415,000.
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A Partial list of States where P5 enrollment exceeds G5 enrollment:
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California enrollments
P5 (UCLA, Cal, USC, & Stanford): 151,262
G5 (SDSU, SJSU, & Fresno State): 95,069
In California, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 56,193 students
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Indiana enrollments
P5 (Indiana, Purdue, & Notre Dame): 100,584
G5 (Ball State): 21,884
In Indiana, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 78,700 students
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Pennsylvania enrollments
P5 (PSU & Pitt): 75,483
G5 (Temple): 39,740
In Pennsylvania, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 35,743 students
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Virginia enrollments
P5 (Virginia & VT): 52,583
G5 (Old Dominion): 24,932
In Virginia, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 26,651 students
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Michigan enrollments
P5 (Michigan, MSU): 95,060
G5 (CMU, EMU, & WMU): 71,957
In Michigan, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 23,105 students
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Maryland enrollments
P5 (U. Maryland): 30,760
G5 (U.S. Naval Academy): 4,400
In Maryland, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 26,360 students
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Alabama enrollments
P5 (Alabama & Auburn): 65,192
G5 (UAB, South Alabama, & Troy): 53,738
In Alabama, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 12,174 students.
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Georgia enrollments
P5 (Georgia, GT): 71,375
G5 (Georgia State, Georgia Southern): 60,724
In Georgia, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 10,651 students
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North Carolina enrollments
P5 (UNC, NC State, Duke, & Wake Forest): 86,294
G5 (ECU, Charlotte, & Appalachian State): 26,257
In North Carolina, the P5 enrollments exceed the G5's by 10,037 students
Summary: in these States, the total G5 enrollment exceeds the total P5 enrollment by approximately 300,000 students.
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Summary: The G5 enrollment totals above appear to suggest that, when the remaining comparisons are completed, they are likely to indicate that the total enrollments (and future alumni bases) of the G5 and P5 universities are (and will be) quite similar in size.
Q: Does this necessarily mean that total G5 FBS viewership will increase in the decades ahead?
A: No, but it does suggest that
the potential FBS viewership of the G5 conferences' might be sufficiently large to permit a dramatic viewership increase in future decade.