The Multi-Year Trend Toward More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams May Continue to be Evident.
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Although relatively few CFB fans seem to realize it, the number of P5 teams that have finished in the AP Top 25 each season increased steadily - - by an average of 150% per year - - since 2015, from one non-P5 in the 2015 final top 25 to seven non-P5 teams in 2019.
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Every year since 2014, the number of non-P5 teams in the Final AP Football Top 25 (not including ACC-affiliate Notre Dame) has exceeded the number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP Top 25.
The pattern first became evident in 2014, when there were no P5 teams in the pre-season top 25, but 3 P5 teams in the final AP top 25. However, few took notice of it until a few years later.
2015: 1 more non-P5 team in the final top 25 than initially predicted.
Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 1 (Boise)
Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 2 (Navy & WKU)
2016: 2 more non-P5 teams in the final top 25 than initially predicted.
Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 1 (Houston)
Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 3 (Boise, WMU, & Navy)
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Not only has this pattern continued each year since 2015, but the pre-season top 25 rankings have actually underestimated the number of non-P5 teams that finished in the top 25 by a larger and larger amount each year.
Rather than acknowledging the improved quality of the upper tier of non-P5 FB programs, the 62 sports writers who vote in the AP top 25 poll have voted to include an average of only 1.14 non-P5 teams in the seven pre-season AP polls conducted between 2014 and 2020.
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2017: 3 more non-P5 teams in the final top 25 than initially predicted.
Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 1 (USF)
Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 4 (UCF, USF, Boise, & Memphis)
2018: 4 more non-P5 teams in the final top 25 than initially predicted.
Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 2 (UCF & Boise)
Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 6 (UCF, Fresno State, Army, Utah State, Boise, & Cincinnati)
2019: 6 more non-P5 teams in the final top 25 than initially predicted.
Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 1 (UCF)
Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 7 (Memphis, App. State, Navy, Cincy, Air Force, Boise & UCF)
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[/b]In the 2020 pre-season poll, which was sufficiently inclusive to list 5 Big Ten teams, only two non-P5 teams ( Cincy & UCF) [size=x-small] were ranked among the top 25.
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Q: Will the 2020 pre-season rankings, once again, underestimate (by a large margin) the number of non-P5 teams that will end up in the final AP top 25?
A: The rankings that are currently available from weeks 1-3 suggest that the answer may be yes.
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Week #2 AP rankings:
Six non-P5 teams were ranked in the week #2 AP top 25. In addition, Arkansas State (33 votes), SMU (32 votes), Boise (6), USF (6), UAB, Air Force, Marshall, and Houston received votes.
Three of the six ranked non-P5 teams - - Cincy (#13), UCF (#14), and Memphis (#16) - - probably would have still been ranked among the top 25, even if the five Big Ten teams in the pre-season top 25 had remained on the list in week #2.
The other non-P5 teams in the week #2 AP top 25 were BYU (#21), Army (#22), and App. State (#24). It is posible that they would have been #26th, #27th, and #29th in votes received if the 5 B1G teams in the preseason poll were in the week #2 top 25.
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Preliminary rankings after Saturday's games suggest that there may be either 6 or 7 non-P5 teams in the week #3 AP top 25 poll, including Louisiana, and Marshall, which defeated App. State.
Although many games remain to be played, the data currently available suggest that the observed trend toward an increasing number of non-P5 top 25 teams may continue to be evident this season.
Whether or not this upward trend will eventually exceed 7 teams - - or level off at an average of 6 or 7 non-P5 top 25 teams in future seasons - - will remain to be seen. But, regardless, fans of G5 and independent teams have reason to hope that the voters in the leading top 25 polls will soon have an "a-hah!" moment, when they will suddenly realize that they need to start paying just a wee bit more attention to the 60+ teams in the non-P5 conferences.
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Questions:
1) Why have the AP top 25 voters (62 sports writers) been so persistently and extremely inaccurate in their predictions as to how many top 25 quality non-P5 teams there will be in the nation?
2) Are they simply uninformed or oblivious, or is it possible that there is something else influencing their pre-season top 25 votes? If so, what?
2) How many more years will it take before the sports writers get enough of a clue to include 5 or 6, rather than 1 or 2 non-P5 teams on their pre-season top 25 lists?
(This post was last modified: 09-20-2020 04:36 AM by jedclampett.)
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