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The Year That Is (Week 7: Alabama and Clemson cruise toward playoff berths)
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Crayton Online
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Post: #1
The Year That Is (Week 7: Alabama and Clemson cruise toward playoff berths)
After simulating The Year That Wasn't, I thought I'd use the same principles to view the college football season we actually have. Schedules are still in flux and I'll try and keep them updated with each look-in. As of now the Big Ten, Air Force, and others are excluded from the post-season. That may change.

Week 1-ish Projections
Week 3? Last look before adding Big Ten
Week 5: OK State stands alone
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 02:28 PM by Crayton.)
09-16-2020 04:17 AM
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Crayton Online
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RE: The Year That Is (Week 1-ish)
Week 1-ish Playoff Outlook
Teams with a >90% playoff chance include SEC teams with 1 or fewer losses, ACC and Big 12 Champs with 1 or fewer losses, and an undefeated team coming from the American Athletic Conference. That means roughly 48 teams have a good chance at the playoff if they win out (sorry, Navy).

Non-Power 6

Outside the aforementioned conferences, we give BYU a 53% chance of making the playoff *if* undefeated, Louisiana 41%, App St 36%, and FAU 27%; no other team finishes undefeated >1% of the time. Again, lots will change as teams get more practice in and the schedule continues to evolve.

New Years Six Race

Given the enhanced likelihood 2 "G5" teams finish the season strong, we'll look at outcomes of making the 5-1-2 playoff (3-1-2, with the Big Ten and Pac-12 out), rather than just the race to become the Top G5 team:
41% UCF
31% Memphis
16% App St
10% FAU
3% Louisiana
2% Navy
1% Houston
1% Cincinnati
1% BYU
<1% all others

Overall Playoff Favorites:

1) 75.53% Clemson
2) 75.5% Alabama
3) 36.02% LSU
4) 29.13% Oklahoma
5) 26.97% Notre Dame
6) 25% Georgia
7) 24.02% UCF
8) 18.66% Memphis
9) 14.65% Auburn
10) 13.83% Oklahoma St

Gross Data:
Code:
100% (10-0)+W Georgia (1%)
100% (10-0)+W Alabama (20%)
100% (9-1)+W Alabama (22%)
100% (10-0)+W LSU (4%)
100% (9-1)+W Auburn (2%)
100% (11-0)+W Clemson (32%)
100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (3%)
100% (10-0)+W Oklahoma (6%)
100% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (1%)
100% (10-0)+W Texas (1%)
100% (10-0)+W Memphis (6%)
99% (9-0)+W UCF (9%)
99% (9-1)+W LSU (9%)
99% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)
98% (10-0)+L  Alabama (6%)
98% (9-1)+W Florida (2%)
96% (9-1)      Alabama (10%)
95% (10-1)+W Clemson (32%)
94% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (7%)
94% (9-1)+W Baylor (1%)
93% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%)
93% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (9%)
93% (10-0)+L  LSU (2%)
92% (8-2)+W Alabama (5%)
92% (8-1)+W TCU (1%)
92% (10-1)+W Miami (1%)
91% (9-1)      Auburn (2%)
90% (9-1)      LSU (7%)
89% (9-1)+W Texas (5%)
89% (8-2)+W LSU (3%)
88% (9-1)+W Oklahoma (17%)
86% (10-0)+L  Florida (1%)
86% (10-0)+L  Georgia (2%)
82% (11-0)+L  Clemson (7%)
78% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (1%)
78% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (7%)
70% (9-1)+L  Alabama (6%)
69% (9-1)      Florida (1%)
67% (8-2)+W Georgia (8%)
65% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma (4%)
61% (10-0)+L  Texas (1%)
60% (9-1)+W Memphis (15%)
54% (10-1)      Notre Dame (1%)
53% (7-0)      BYU (14%)
53% (8-1)+W UCF (21%)
51% (9-1)+L  Auburn (1%)
50% (10-1)      Miami (2%)
48% (9-1)+L  Georgia (12%)
46% (9-2)+W Clemson (6%)
45% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (5%)
45% (8-2)      Alabama (16%)
43% (9-1)+L  LSU (5%)
41% (11-0)+W Louisiana (2%)
36% (9-0)+L  UCF (4%)
36% (11-0)+W App St (19%)
34% (8-2)      Auburn (19%)
34% (8-2)+W Baylor (4%)
34% (8-2)+W Florida (3%)
33% (10-0)+L  Memphis (5%)
30% (8-2)      Miss St (1%)
30% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (12%)
28% (9-2)+W Miami (2%)
27% (9-0)+W FAU (16%)
25% (10-1)+L  Clemson (8%)
24% (9-1)+L  Florida (6%)
24% (8-2)      LSU (28%)
23% (7-2)+W TCU (3%)
23% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (17%)
23% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (15%)
22% (8-2)+W Texas (8%)
19% (8-2)      Texas A*M (6%)
16% (8-2)      Georgia (8%)
13% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (6%)
13% (9-1)+L  Baylor (2%)
12% (10-1)+L  Miami (7%)
10% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)
8% (8-1)+L  TCU (3%)
7% (8-2)+W Memphis (11%)
7% (9-2)      Boston College (1%)
7% (10-1)+L  North Carolina (1%)
7% (9-2)      Notre Dame (12%)
6% (8-2)+L  Alabama (2%)
6% (9-2)      Clemson (4%)
6% (8-2)      Florida (9%)
5% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma (10%)
5% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (8%)
4% (7-2)+W UCF (15%)
4% (7-3)+W Georgia (3%)
4% (8-2)+L  Auburn (1%)
4% (9-1)+L  Texas (5%)
4% (8-3)+W Notre Dame (1%)
3% (8-2)+L  Georgia (16%)
2% (10-0)+W La Tech (1%)
2% (9-2)      Miami (17%)
2% (9-2)      North Carolina (7%)
1% (7-3)+W Baylor (2%)
1% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (4%)
1% (9-2)+W Navy (2%)
1% (8-2)      Texas (7%)
1% (8-2)      Oklahoma St (6%)
1% (6-3)+W UCF (2%)
1% (9-2)+L  North Carolina (4%)
1% (7-3)+W Oklahoma St (3%)
1% (8-2)      Memphis (10%)
1% (8-2)+L  Florida (12%)
1% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (15%)
1% (8-2)      Baylor (3%)
1% (7-3)      Alabama (6%)
0% (8-1)+L  UCF (13%)
0% (7-3)      Auburn (30%)
0% (8-2)+W Cincinnati (1%)
0% (8-2)      Oklahoma (6%)
0% (7-3)+W Oklahoma (1%)
0% (9-1)+L  Memphis (11%)
0% (9-2)+L  Miami (7%)
0% (8-1)+W FAU (26%)
0% (11-0)+L  App St (7%)
0% (7-3)+W Texas (1%)
0% (10-1)+W App St (25%)
0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (9%)
0% (9-2)+L  Clemson (1%)
0% (8-2)+L  Texas (11%)
0% (7-3)      LSU (22%)
0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (24%)
0% (11-0)+L  Louisiana (3%)
0% (8-1)      FAU (3%)
0% (8-2)+L  Baylor (6%)
0% (6-1)      BYU (42%)
0% (7-3)      Texas A*M (18%)
0% (7-3)      Oklahoma St (22%)
0% (8-3)      Notre Dame (13%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (27%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (36%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (9%)
99% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (43%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (16%)
94% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (45%)
92% 1-loss at large SEC (36%)
90% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (33%)
73% 1-loss at large ACC (21%)
73% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (22%)
66% 1-loss at large Big 12 (7%)
55% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (38%)
43% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (16%)
36% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (22%)
32% 1-loss at large AAC (11%)
32% 2-loss at large SEC (124%)
26% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (44%)
25% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (18%)
10% 2-loss at large ACC (93%)
5% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (5%)
5% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (33%)
4% 2-loss at large Big 12 (57%)
4% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (1%)
1% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (11%)
0% 3-loss at large SEC (169%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (36%)
0% 2-loss at large AAC (62%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (34%)
0% 1-loss at large Sun Belt (14%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP AAC (9%)
0% 3-loss at large ACC (150%)
0% 3-loss at large Big 12 (152%)
0% 1-loss at large CUSA (113%)

Playoff %
1) 75.53% Clemson
2) 75.5% Alabama
3) 36.02% LSU
4) 29.13% Oklahoma
5) 26.97% Notre Dame
6) 25% Georgia
7) 24.02% UCF
8) 18.66% Memphis
9) 14.65% Auburn
10) 13.83% Oklahoma St
11) 9.55% Texas
12) 8.56% Florida
13) 7.8% BYU
14) 7.28% App St
15) 5.46% Miami
16) 4.76% FAU
17) 3.43% Baylor
18) 2.79% Virginia Tech
19) 2.66% TCU
20) 2.01% Texas A*M
21) 1.04% Louisiana
22) 0.98% North Carolina
23) 0.55% Miss St
24) 0.33% Boston College
25) 0.26% Houston
26) 0.22% Arkansas
27) 0.22% Cincinnati
28) 0.22% Tulane
29) 0.21% Navy
30) 0.2% Vanderbilt
31) 0.18% Tennessee
32) 0.18% Temple
33) 0.17% Missouri
34) 0.17% West Virginia
35) 0.16% Ole Miss
36) 0.15% Kentucky
37) 0.14% South Carolina
38) 0.13% Georgia Tech
39) 0.12% Texas Tech
40) 0.11% Iowa St
41) 0.09% Kansas St
42) 0.08% Syracuse
43) 0.08% Kansas
44) 0.08% Texas St
45) 0.04% Louisville
46) 0.04% NC State
47) 0.04% USF
48) 0.04% East Carolina
49) 0.04% SMU
50) 0.04% La Tech
51) 0.04% Army
52) 0.01% Pittsburgh
53) 0.01% Rice
54) 0.01% Marshall
55) 0.01% Arkansas St

Top G5 Champ %
1) 35.89% UCF
2) 26.09% Memphis
3) 16.58% App St
4) 9.92% FAU
5) 3.37% Louisiana
6) 2.17% Navy
7) 1.42% Houston
8) 1.27% Cincinnati
9) 0.87% Temple
10) 0.67% Tulane
11) 0.44% La Tech
12) 0.31% Arkansas St
13) 0.23% Troy
14) 0.17% SMU
15) 0.11% Tulsa
16) 0.1% Marshall
17) 0.09% Middle Tennessee
18) 0.08% USF
19) 0.08% Texas St
20) 0.05% East Carolina
21) 0.04% Ga Southern
22) 0.03% WKU
23) 0.01% Rice
24) 0.01% Georgia St

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
88.17% Clemson (220/344) *1411*
81.19% Alabama (2216/2558) *1083*
65.16% Ohio St (0/0) *0*
50.33% LSU (2480/3263) *823*
48.33% Oklahoma (135/356) *613*
45.42% Utah (0/0) *0*
41.85% UCF (66/211) *530*
38.29% Oregon (0/0) *0*
37.81% Notre Dame (469/1078) *1266*
37.23% Georgia (529/812) *1034*
34.68% Wisconsin (0/0) *0*
31.99% Oklahoma St (168/574) *591*
31.19% Memphis (65/238) *445*
24.62% Auburn (1654/2493) *400*
21.01% Texas (104/419) *308*
16.67% App St (0/3) *9*
15.31% Florida (354/873) *449*
11.68% Washington (0/0) *0*
11.66% Miami (426/1316) *292*
10.97% Baylor (97/474) *146*
10% FAU (8/19) *0*
7.55% TCU (42/300) *91*
5.26% Virginia Tech (202/827) *149*
4.15% USC (0/0) *0*
3.78% Texas A*M (253/570) *77*
3.48% Louisiana (4/4) *7*
3.06% North Carolina (104/530) *103*
2.19% Navy (1/13) *1*
1.69% Houston (16/116) *11*
1.5% Cincinnati (11/59) *12*
1.28% BYU (120/1503) *8*
1.21% Iowa St (0/9) *1*
1.19% Miss St (93/223) *18*
0.93% Temple (0/27) *6*
0.91% Boston College (46/225) *26*
0.86% Kansas St (0/5) *0*
0.81% Tulane (8/51) *6*
0.59% Kentucky (17/98) *13*
0.49% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.45% Georgia Tech (13/47) *20*
0.44% La Tech (0/0) *0*
0.39% Colorado (0/0) *0*
0.35% West Virginia (0/16) *4*
0.31% South Carolina (11/18) *9*
0.31% Missouri (17/54) *1*
0.31% Arkansas St (0/3) *0*
0.29% Arkansas (14/22) *1*
0.24% Tennessee (6/21) *4*
0.23% Troy (0/4) *0*
0.2% Ole Miss (9/30) *3*
0.2% Texas Tech (0/1) *0*
0.17% Vanderbilt (0/8) *8*
0.17% SMU (0/1) *0*
0.16% Louisville (8/51) *8*
0.16% Penn State (0/0) *0*
0.15% Duke (8/13) *4*
0.12% Syracuse (0/9) *4*
0.11% Tulsa (0/1) *0*
0.1% Marshall (0/4) *0*
0.09% East Carolina (0/0) *4*
0.09% Middle Tennessee (0/1) *0*
0.08% USF (0/3) *0*
0.08% Texas St (0/1) *0*
0.07% California (0/0) *0*
0.05% Pittsburgh (0/8) *1*
0.04% Army (4/48) *0*
0.04% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*
0.03% WKU (0/0) *0*
0.01% Wake Forest (1/29) *0*
0.01% Virginia (1/7) *0*
0.01% Rice (0/0) *0*
0.01% Georgia St (0/0) *0*
09-16-2020 04:27 AM
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CoachMaclid Offline
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RE: The Year That Is (Week 1-ish)
Crayton,

Just like to point out that BYU is not eligible for the G5 NY6 auto bid. One must be a G5 conference champion to be eligible for the NY6 bid, and all the independents like BYU are not able to be a G5 conference champion. They are eligible to be selected to one of the NY6 at large spots, but the autobid is to be selected from the g5conferenece champions.
09-16-2020 07:10 AM
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Crayton Online
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RE: The Year That Is (Week 1-ish)
(09-16-2020 07:10 AM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  Crayton,

Just like to point out that BYU is not eligible for the G5 NY6 auto bid. One must be a G5 conference champion to be eligible for the NY6 bid, and all the independents like BYU are not able to be a G5 conference champion. They are eligible to be selected to one of the NY6 at large spots, but the autobid is to be selected from the g5conferenece champions.

Thank you. That is baked in (the percentages add up to>100%), meaning BYU's listed 1% would be as an at large for the NY6, likely only if they are undefeated. Afterward I did notice their LaTech game was not added yet, meaning the Cougars' chances of going undefeated are that much harder.

For comparison, UCF's 41% is about 35% as the top G5 and 6% as an at large (perhaps as the American runner-up or as 2nd best G5 champ).

I also noticed the computer is still simulating CCGs for the 4 conferences on hiatus; but that shouldn't affect anything.
(This post was last modified: 09-16-2020 12:51 PM by Crayton.)
09-16-2020 12:41 PM
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Crayton Online
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RE: The Year That Is (Week 3: Miami, UCF, and ND climb)
Only one Top 25 teams lost this week, App State, who was replaced by the comeback. Midshipmen. Memphis also displaced Ole Miss in the Top 25 following their victory over Arkansas St. The Big Ten schedule will hopefully be incorporated for a mid-week update. UCF and Notre Dame both climbed the rankings of most likely to make the playoff. Memphis and Oklahoma both fell.

Playoff Outlook
Prior to Big Ten inclusion, champions from the SEC, ACC, Big 12, and American are locks (>98%) if they are undefeated; the ACC and SEC champs can suffer a loss. BYU sits at 55% (if undefeated), Marshall at 28%, FAU at 19%, Louisiana at 13%, and Louisiana Tech at 5%.

New Years Six Race:
1) 52.43% UCF (+5% chance as at large)
2) 13.84% Memphis (+1%)
3) 11.63% FAU
4) 7.56% Navy
5) 4.86% Louisiana
6) 2.47% Houston
7) 1.26% App St
8) 1.11% Cincinnati
9) 0.00% BYU (+1%)
10) 1.09% Marshall


Overall Playoff Favorites:
1) 78.42% Clemson (+2.89%)
2) 74.33% Alabama (-1.17%)
3) 41.94% Notre Dame (+14.97%)
4) 35.67% LSU (-0.35)
5) 33.90% UCF (+9.88)
6) 23.69% Georgia (-1.31)
7) 20.40% Oklahoma (-8.73%)
8) 14.47% Miami (+9.03%)
9) 13.58% Auburn (-1.07)
10) 13.08% Oklahoma St (-0.75%)
dropped: Memphis

Raw Data:
Code:
Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)
#1 (0-0) 30.7 Alabama ---BYE---+0
#2 (0-0) 24.1 LSU ---BYE---+0
#3 (2-0) 51.3 Clemson (W 49-0 vs. FCS)+1
#4 (0-0) 21.7 Georgia ---BYE----1
#5 (0-0) 19.4 Auburn ---BYE---+0
#6 (2-0) 38.6 Notre Dame (W 52-0 vs. USF)+1
#7 (0-0) 16.1 Florida ---BYE----1
#8 (1-0) 25.8 Oklahoma ---BYE---+1
#9 (0-0) 12.3 Texas A*M ---BYE----1
#10 (1-0) 17 Oklahoma St (W 16-7 vs. Tulsa)+0
#11 (1-0) 34.2 UCF (W 47-21 vs. Georgia Tech)+0
#12 (2-0) 29.3 Miami (W 47-34 vs. Louisville)+2
#13 (0-0) 8.7 Miss St ---BYE----1
#14 (1-0) 19 Texas ---BYE----1
#15 (0-0) 6.3 Kentucky ---BYE---+0
#16 (0-0) 12.2 Baylor ---BYE---+0
#17 (0-0) 26.5 Virginia Tech ---BYE---+2
#18 (0-0) 5.5 Missouri ---BYE----1
#19 (0-0) 12.1 TCU ---BYE----1
#20 (1-0) 27.1 North Carolina ---BYE---+1
#21 (0-0) 5.1 South Carolina ---BYE----1
#22 (1-0) 23.8 Boston College (W 26-6 vs. Duke)+3
#23 (1-1) 23 Navy (W 27-24 vs. Tulane)+3
#24 (1-1) 34.9 Memphis (W 37-24 vs. Arkansas St)+5
#25 (0-0) 3.3 Tennessee ---BYE----3
#26 (0-0) 2 Ole Miss ---BYE----2
#27 (0-1) 12.6 Kansas St ---BYE---+0
#28 (0-1) 11.4 Iowa St ---BYE---+0
#29 (1-1) 36.9 App St (L 7-17 vs. Marshall)-6
#30 (0-0) 27 FAU ---BYE---+0
#31 (0-0) 22.6 Houston ---BYE---+0
#32 (2-0) 29.1 SMU (W 65-35 vs. North Texas)+4
#33 (2-0) 23.1 Pittsburgh (W 21-10 vs. Syracuse)+9
#34 (2-0) 26.7 Louisiana (W 34-31 vs. Georgia St)+1
#35 (0-1) 28.7 Florida St ---BYE----2
#36 (1-0) 24.6 Cincinnati (W 55-20 vs. FCS)-4
#37 (0-0) 20.4 Temple ---BYE---+0
#38 (1-0) 21.8 NC State (W 45-42 vs. Wake Forest)+13
#39 (1-1) 22.1 Louisville (L 34-47 vs. Miami)+1
#40 (1-1) 17.1 Georgia Tech (L 21-47 vs. UCF)+1
#41 (0-0) -7.7 Arkansas ---BYE----2
#42 (0-2) 28 Wake Forest (L 42-45 vs. NC State)-8
#43 (0-0) 27.2 Virginia ---BYE---+3
#44 (1-0) 37.5 BYU ---BYE---+4
#45 (1-0) 10.3 West Virginia ---BYE----1
#46 (1-0) 27.3 Troy ---BYE---+1
#47 (1-1) 21.8 Tulane (L 24-27 vs. Navy)-4
#48 (0-2) 18.9 Syracuse (L 10-21 vs. Pittsburgh)-10
#49 (0-0) -6.2 Vanderbilt ---BYE----4
#50 (0-2) 20.1 Duke (L 6-26 vs. Boston College)-1
#51 (0-1) 16.5 Tulsa (L 7-16 vs. Oklahoma St)-1
#52 (1-0) 4.5 Texas Tech ---BYE---+0
#53 (1-0) 26.6 La Tech ---BYE---+1
#54 (2-0) 39.5 Army (W 42-0 vs. Middle Tennessee)+5
#55 (2-0) 25.7 Marshall (W 17-7 vs. App St)+8
#56 (1-1) 22.4 Arkansas St (L 24-37 vs. Memphis)-3
#57 (1-0) 16 Ga Southern ---BYE----2
#59 (1-1) 11.8 USF (L 0-52 vs. Notre Dame)-1
#60 (0-2) 16 Middle Tennessee (L 0-42 vs. Army)-4
#61 (0-1) -5.8 Kansas ---BYE----1
#62 (0-2) 23.7 WKU (L 24-30 vs. Liberty)-1
#63 (0-2) 22.4 Southern Miss (L 21-32 vs. South Alabama)-1
#64 (0-1) 9.1 Georgia St (L 31-34 vs. Louisiana)+1
#65 (0-1) 12.7 Charlotte ---BYE---+2
#66 (1-1) 9.2 South Alabama (W 32-21 vs. Southern Miss)+8
#67 (0-0) 3.3 East Carolina ---BYE---+1
#68 (0-0) 22.7 FIU ---BYE---+1
#69 (1-1) 12.7 North Texas (L 35-65 vs. SMU)-3
#70 (0-2) 11.8 La Monroe (L 17-38 vs. Texas St)-6
#71 (1-1) 11.4 UAB (W 45-35 vs. FCS)-1
#72 (2-0) 6.7 UTSA (W 24-10 vs. FCS)-1
#73 (1-0) 20.4 Liberty (W 30-24 vs. WKU)+0
#74 (1-1) 6.5 Texas St (W 38-17 vs. La Monroe)+2
#75 (0-1) 12.5 Air Force ---BYE---+0
#76 (0-0) 5.7 Rice ---BYE----4
#77 (1-1) -3.4 UTEP (W 17-13 vs. FCS)+0
#78 (0-1) -26.7 Ohio St ---BYE---+0
#79 (0-1) -26.7 Penn State ---BYE---+0
#80 (0-1) -26.7 Wisconsin ---BYE---+0
#81 (0-1) -26.7 Michigan ---BYE---+0
#82 (0-1) -26.7 Iowa ---BYE---+0
#83 (0-1) -26.7 Washington ---BYE---+0
#84 (0-1) -26.7 Utah ---BYE---+0
#85 (0-1) -26.7 Oregon ---BYE---+0
#86 (0-1) -26.7 Minnesota ---BYE---+0
#87 (0-1) -26.7 Boise St ---BYE---+0
#88 (0-1) -26.7 USC ---BYE---+0
#89 (0-1) -26.7 Wash St ---BYE---+0
#90 (0-1) -26.7 Indiana ---BYE---+0
#91 (0-1) -26.7 Mich St ---BYE---+0
#92 (0-1) -26.7 Nebraska ---BYE---+0
#93 (0-1) -26.7 Stanford ---BYE---+0
#94 (0-1) -26.7 Arizona St ---BYE---+0
#95 (0-1) -26.7 Northwestern ---BYE---+0
#96 (0-1) -26.7 Purdue ---BYE---+0
#97 (0-1) -26.7 California ---BYE---+0
#98 (0-1) -26.7 Ohio ---BYE---+0
#99 (0-1) -26.7 Colorado ---BYE---+0
#100 (0-1) -26.7 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0
#101 (0-1) -26.7 Utah St ---BYE---+0
#102 (0-1) -26.7 Maryland ---BYE---+0
#103 (0-1) -26.7 Wyoming ---BYE---+0
#104 (0-1) -26.7 San Diego St ---BYE---+0
#105 (0-1) -26.7 Fresno St ---BYE---+0
#106 (0-1) -26.7 UCLA ---BYE---+0
#107 (0-1) -26.7 Buffalo ---BYE---+0
#108 (0-1) -26.7 Toledo ---BYE---+0
#109 (0-1) -26.7 Arizona ---BYE---+0
#110 (0-1) -26.7 Illinois ---BYE---+1
#111 (0-1) -26.7 Eastern Michigan ---BYE----1
#112 (0-1) -26.7 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0
#113 (0-1) -26.7 Hawaii ---BYE---+0
#114 (0-1) -26.7 Oregon St ---BYE---+0
#115 (0-1) -26.7 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0
#116 (0-1) -26.7 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0
#117 (0-1) -26.7 Colorado St ---BYE---+0
#118 (0-1) -26.7 Ball St ---BYE---+0
#119 (0-1) -26.7 Nevada ---BYE---+0
#120 (0-1) -26.7 Kent St ---BYE---+0
#121 (0-1) -26.7 Rutgers ---BYE---+0
#122 (0-1) -26.7 San Jose St ---BYE---+0
#123 (0-1) -26.7 New Mexico ---BYE---+0
#124 (0-1) -26.7 UNLV ---BYE---+0
#125 (0-1) -26.7 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0
#126 (0-1) -26.7 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0
#127 (0-1) -26.7 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0
#128 (0-1) -26.7 Akron ---BYE---+0
#129 (0-1) -26.7 UConn ---BYE---+0
#130 (0-1) -26.7 UMass ---BYE---+0

100% (10-0)+W Georgia (1%)
100% (10-0)+W Alabama (20%)
100% (9-1)+W Alabama (22%)
100% (10-0)+W LSU (4%)
100% (9-1)+W Auburn (2%)
100% (11-0)+W Clemson (27%)
100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (4%)
100% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (2%)
100% (10-0)+W Texas (1%)
99% (9-1)+W LSU (9%)
99% (10-0)+W Oklahoma (6%)
99% (10-1)+W Clemson (30%)
99% (10-0)+W Memphis (1%)
99% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)
98% (9-0)+W UCF (19%)
98% (10-0)+L  Alabama (5%)
98% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (12%)
97% (9-1)+W Florida (1%)
97% (10-1)+W Miami (3%)
95% (9-1)      Alabama (10%)
95% (11-0)+L  Clemson (7%)
93% (10-0)+L  LSU (2%)
91% (9-1)      Auburn (2%)
89% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (7%)
88% (9-1)      LSU (8%)
88% (8-2)+W Alabama (5%)
86% (10-0)+L  Georgia (2%)
84% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (9%)
83% (8-1)+W Baylor (1%)
81% (9-2)+W Clemson (7%)
81% (10-0)+L  Florida (1%)
80% (9-1)+W Texas (4%)
80% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%)
79% (8-2)+W LSU (3%)
79% (8-1)+W TCU (1%)
75% (10-1)      Notre Dame (2%)
74% (11-0)+L  Miami (1%)
73% (9-1)+W Oklahoma (15%)
73% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (1%)
72% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (5%)
71% (9-1)      Florida (1%)
66% (10-1)      Miami (3%)
64% (9-2)+W Miami (2%)
64% (9-1)+L  Alabama (6%)
61% (8-2)+W Georgia (8%)
55% (9-1)+L  Auburn (1%)
55% (8-0)      BYU (11%)
53% (10-1)+L  Clemson (9%)
49% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (18%)
48% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (1%)
44% (9-1)+L  Georgia (12%)
44% (9-1)+L  LSU (5%)
41% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma (3%)
40% (10-1)+L  Boston College (1%)
40% (8-2)      Alabama (15%)
39% (8-2)+W Florida (2%)
39% (9-1)+L  North Carolina (2%)
39% (9-1)+W Memphis (8%)
39% (8-1)+W UCF (29%)
37% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)
33% (8-2)      Auburn (17%)
32% (10-1)+L  Miami (10%)
29% (9-0)+L  UCF (7%)
28% (8-0)+W Marshall (1%)
27% (10-1)+W Navy (1%)
24% (8-2)      LSU (28%)
23% (9-2)      Clemson (7%)
19% (8-0)+W FAU (20%)
19% (9-1)+L  Florida (7%)
17% (8-2)      Texas A*M (5%)
17% (8-2)      Georgia (6%)
17% (9-2)      Notre Dame (15%)
16% (8-2)      Miss St (1%)
16% (10-0)+L  Memphis (2%)
15% (9-2)      Boston College (4%)
13% (11-0)+W Louisiana (6%)
11% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (9%)
10% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (13%)
10% (8-2)+L  Alabama (1%)
10% (8-2)+W Texas (7%)
9% (7-2)+W Baylor (4%)
8% (7-2)+W TCU (3%)
7% (8-2)      North Carolina (8%)
7% (9-2)      Miami (21%)
7% (7-3)+W Georgia (4%)
7% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (14%)
6% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (10%)
5% (9-2)+L  Clemson (2%)
5% (11-0)+W La Tech (1%)
4% (8-2)      Florida (10%)
4% (9-2)+L  Miami (8%)
4% (8-2)+L  North Carolina (3%)
4% (7-2)+W UCF (10%)
4% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (4%)
4% (9-2)+L  Boston College (2%)
3% (8-2)+L  Auburn (1%)
3% (7-3)+W Florida (1%)
2% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (8%)
2% (8-1)+L  Baylor (2%)
2% (8-2)+L  Georgia (17%)
1% (8-2)+W Memphis (7%)
1% (8-2)+L  LSU (2%)
1% (8-2)+W Houston (1%)
1% (7-3)      Alabama (6%)
1% (8-1)+L  TCU (2%)
1% (9-1)+L  Texas (6%)
0% (8-2)      Oklahoma St (6%)
0% (8-1)+L  UCF (10%)
0% (7-3)      Auburn (32%)
0% (9-1)+L  Houston (2%)
0% (7-3)      Missouri (2%)
0% (7-1)      BYU (35%)
0% (9-1)+L  Memphis (10%)
0% (11-1)+W Troy (2%)
0% (8-3)      Miami (26%)
0% (7-3)      LSU (22%)
0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (24%)
0% (9-2)+W Navy (6%)
0% (7-3)+W Oklahoma St (3%)
0% (8-2)      Texas (7%)
0% (8-3)      Clemson (3%)
0% (7-3)      North Carolina (24%)
0% (7-2)      Baylor (4%)
0% (8-2)      Houston (4%)
0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma (9%)
0% (7-3)      Georgia (14%)
0% (8-3)      Boston College (19%)
0% (7-1)+W FAU (27%)
0% (7-3)      Miss St (7%)
0% (8-3)      Notre Dame (14%)
0% (10-1)+W App St (10%)
0% (8-2)+L  Florida (11%)
0% (8-2)      Memphis (13%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (26%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (33%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (9%)
99% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (44%)
99% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (47%)
98% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (21%)
91% 1-loss at large SEC (35%)
84% 1-loss at large ACC (24%)
78% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (33%)
76% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (17%)
69% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (22%)
45% 1-loss at large Big 12 (7%)
39% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (40%)
30% 2-loss at large SEC (121%)
25% 2-loss at large ACC (112%)
23% 1-loss at large AAC (11%)
18% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (23%)
15% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (1%)
14% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (6%)
9% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (45%)
7% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (6%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (27%)
1% 3-loss at large ACC (162%)
0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (59%)
0% 3-loss at large SEC (171%)
0% 2-loss at large AAC (73%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (38%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (10%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (30%)
0% 4-loss at large ACC (166%)

Playoff %
1) 78.42% Clemson
2) 74.33% Alabama
3) 41.94% Notre Dame
4) 35.67% LSU
5) 33.9% UCF
6) 23.69% Georgia
7) 20.4% Oklahoma
8) 14.47% Miami
9) 13.58% Auburn
10) 13.08% Oklahoma St
11) 7.15% Florida
12) 6.5% BYU
13) 6.2% Texas
14) 5.59% Memphis
15) 4.78% Virginia Tech
16) 3.91% FAU
17) 3.04% North Carolina
18) 2.28% Baylor
19) 1.97% Boston College
20) 1.83% Texas A*M
21) 1.74% TCU
22) 0.82% Louisiana
23) 0.74% Houston
24) 0.45% Marshall
25) 0.42% Navy
26) 0.39% Kentucky
27) 0.34% Miss St
28) 0.25% Arkansas
29) 0.23% Ole Miss
30) 0.2% South Carolina
31) 0.19% Pittsburgh
32) 0.16% Cincinnati
33) 0.14% East Carolina
34) 0.13% Temple
35) 0.13% Troy
36) 0.11% Tennessee
37) 0.11% NC State
38) 0.11% SMU
39) 0.09% West Virginia
40) 0.08% Texas Tech
41) 0.08% La Tech
42) 0.07% Vanderbilt
43) 0.06% Missouri
44) 0.06% Georgia Tech
45) 0.04% Virginia
46) 0.04% Kansas St
47) 0.03% Louisville
48) 0.03% Kansas
49) 0.01% Iowa St
50) 0.01% Ga Southern
51) 0.01% App St

Top G5 Champ %
1) 52.43% UCF
2) 13.84% Memphis
3) 11.63% FAU
4) 7.56% Navy
5) 4.86% Louisiana
6) 2.47% Houston
7) 1.26% App St
8) 1.11% Cincinnati
9) 1.09% Marshall
10) 0.93% La Tech
11) 0.76% Troy
12) 0.67% SMU
13) 0.55% Temple
14) 0.2% USF
15) 0.18% East Carolina
16) 0.12% Ga Southern
17) 0.06% Tulane
18) 0.06% UTSA
19) 0.06% Arkansas St
20) 0.05% Tulsa
21) 0.03% FIU
22) 0.02% Rice
23) 0.02% Texas St

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
87.96% Clemson (432/763) *1821*
81.04% Alabama (2176/2497) *1038*
65.28% Ohio St (0/0) *0*
57.79% UCF (55/122) *481*
48.86% Notre Dame (688/1592) *1834*
47.78% LSU (2411/3146) *617*
47.53% Utah (0/0) *0*
42.88% Oklahoma (63/179) *368*
34.54% Wisconsin (0/0) *0*
34.5% Georgia (409/624) *876*
34.3% Oregon (0/0) *0*
33.01% Oklahoma St (78/254) *317*
21.62% Auburn (1475/2183) *314*
21.06% Miami (674/2198) *763*
17.06% Texas (43/167) *149*
15.53% Washington (0/0) *0*
15.5% Memphis (19/82) *147*
12.75% Florida (322/707) *297*
11.68% FAU (3/3) *2*
8.93% Baylor (30/149) *69*
7.6% Navy (3/4) *1*
7.48% Virginia Tech (246/1118) *289*
7.22% TCU (22/132) *65*
4.86% Louisiana (0/0) *0*
4.43% North Carolina (157/789) *183*
3.7% Boston College (145/689) *143*
3.35% Texas A*M (210/443) *86*
2.74% Houston (11/96) *16*
2.16% USC (0/0) *0*
1.26% App St (0/0) *0*
1.24% Cincinnati (3/25) *10*
1.09% BYU (105/1298) *4*
1.09% Marshall (0/6) *0*
1.05% Miss St (79/175) *16*
0.97% Kentucky (31/76) *24*
0.93% Kansas St (0/3) *0*
0.93% La Tech (0/0) *0*
0.9% Iowa St (0/0) *0*
0.79% Troy (3/9) *0*
0.7% SMU (1/20) *2*
0.59% Temple (0/27) *4*
0.45% Missouri (16/29) *7*
0.45% Pittsburgh (19/113) *22*
0.45% Colorado (0/0) *0*
0.42% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.37% Arkansas (20/28) *10*
0.37% Texas Tech (0/3) *2*
0.29% South Carolina (8/30) *3*
0.28% West Virginia (0/1) *0*
0.24% Ole Miss (17/28) *0*
0.23% Vanderbilt (14/17) *2*
0.22% Tennessee (3/18) *5*
0.2% USF (0/0) *0*
0.18% Penn State (0/0) *0*
0.18% East Carolina (0/1) *0*
0.17% NC State (6/57) *6*
0.12% Georgia Tech (1/20) *4*
0.12% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*
0.08% Tulane (2/4) *0*
0.06% UTSA (0/0) *0*
0.06% Arkansas St (0/0) *0*
0.05% Tulsa (0/0) *0*
0.04% Louisville (0/21) *3*
0.04% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.03% California (0/0) *0*
0.03% FIU (0/0) *0*
0.02% Florida St (0/5) *0*
0.02% Rice (0/0) *0*
0.02% Texas St (0/0) *0*
(This post was last modified: 09-22-2020 11:14 PM by Crayton.)
09-20-2020 06:00 PM
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Crayton Online
2nd String
*

Posts: 372
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 39
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #6
RE: The Year That Is (Week 3: Ohio State to the playoff!!))
The Big Ten is IN. They place 4 teams in the Top 9 with #12 Iowa and #21 Minnesota not far behind. Laughably only 2 Top 14 teams played last week, Clemson and Notre Dame.

G5 in the playoff? Yep. Still a thing. An undefeated American champ has gone from a 98% to a 94% of crashing the party, but the odds are still pretty good.

Ohio State is the conference favorite and the computer will weight that more and more as the season continues to pass the Big Ten by. But, 3 teams from each division are given decent odds and no doubt 2020 will have a few more surprises in store for us.

raw data:
Code:
Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)
#1 (0-0) 23.1 Alabama ---BYE---+0
#2 (0-0) 27.6 Ohio St ---BYE---+0
#3 (0-0) 16.5 LSU ---BYE---+0
#4 (2-0) 45.9 Clemson (W 49-0 vs. FCS)+1
#5 (0-0) 14.1 Georgia ---BYE----1
#6 (0-0) 17.5 Penn State ---BYE---+0
#7 (0-0) 15.5 Wisconsin ---BYE---+0
#8 (0-0) 11.8 Auburn ---BYE---+0
#9 (0-0) 14.3 Michigan ---BYE---+0
#10 (2-0) 32.7 Notre Dame (W 52-0 vs. USF)+1
#11 (0-0) 8.5 Florida ---BYE----1
#12 (0-0) 11 Iowa ---BYE---+0
#13 (1-0) 20.7 Oklahoma ---BYE---+1
#14 (0-0) 4.7 Texas A*M ---BYE----1
#15 (1-0) 11.4 Oklahoma St (W 16-7 vs. Tulsa)+0
#16 (1-0) 28.6 UCF (W 47-21 vs. Georgia Tech)+0
#17 (2-0) 23.5 Miami (W 47-34 vs. Louisville)+2
#18 (0-0) 1.1 Miss St ---BYE----1
#19 (1-0) 13.5 Texas ---BYE----1
#20 (0-0) -1.3 Kentucky ---BYE---+0
#21 (0-0) 3.8 Minnesota ---BYE---+0
#22 (0-0) 6.6 Baylor ---BYE---+0
#23 (0-0) 20.8 Virginia Tech ---BYE---+3
#24 (0-0) -2.1 Missouri ---BYE----1
#25 (0-0) 6.5 TCU ---BYE---+0
#26 (0-0) -0.5 Indiana ---BYE----2
#27 (1-0) 21.2 North Carolina ---BYE---+2
#28 (0-0) -2.5 South Carolina ---BYE----1
#29 (0-0) -1.2 Nebraska ---BYE----1
#30 (1-0) 18 Boston College (W 26-6 vs. Duke)+4
#31 (1-1) 18.1 Navy (W 27-24 vs. Tulane)+4
#32 (0-0) -1.2 Mich St ---BYE----2
#33 (1-1) 29.1 Memphis (W 37-24 vs. Arkansas St)+5
#34 (0-0) -4.3 Tennessee ---BYE----3
#35 (0-0) -5.6 Ole Miss ---BYE----2
#36 (0-1) 7.1 Kansas St ---BYE---+0
#37 (1-1) 33.5 App St (L 7-17 vs. Marshall)-5
#38 (0-0) 22.4 FAU ---BYE---+1
#39 (0-0) 17.5 Houston ---BYE---+2
#40 (2-0) 25.4 SMU (W 65-35 vs. North Texas)+4
#41 (2-0) 23.2 Louisiana (W 34-31 vs. Georgia St)+2
#42 (2-0) 17.7 Pittsburgh (W 21-10 vs. Syracuse)+12
#43 (0-1) 5.9 Iowa St ---BYE----6
#44 (0-0) -4.5 Northwestern ---BYE----4
#45 (0-1) 23.3 Florida St ---BYE---+0
#46 (1-0) 19.9 Cincinnati (W 55-20 vs. FCS)-4
#47 (0-0) 15.1 Temple ---BYE---+3
#48 (1-0) 16.1 NC State (W 45-42 vs. Wake Forest)+15
#49 (1-1) 16.3 Louisville (L 34-47 vs. Miami)+2
#50 (1-1) 11.2 Georgia Tech (L 21-47 vs. UCF)+3
#51 (0-0) -7.8 Maryland ---BYE----3
#52 (0-0) -4.9 Purdue ---BYE----3
#53 (1-0) 33.5 BYU ---BYE---+7
#54 (1-0) 23.9 Troy ---BYE---+5
#55 (0-2) 22.6 Wake Forest (L 42-45 vs. NC State)-9
#56 (0-0) 21.8 Virginia ---BYE---+2
#57 (0-0) -15.3 Arkansas ---BYE----5
#58 (1-0) 5.2 West Virginia ---BYE----2
#59 (1-1) 16.7 Tulane (L 24-27 vs. Navy)-4
#60 (0-2) 13.1 Syracuse (L 10-21 vs. Pittsburgh)-13
#61 (0-0) -13.8 Vanderbilt ---BYE----4
#62 (0-2) 14.2 Duke (L 6-26 vs. Boston College)-1
#63 (0-1) 11.3 Tulsa (L 7-16 vs. Oklahoma St)-1
#64 (1-0) -0.6 Texas Tech ---BYE---+1
#65 (0-0) -12.8 Illinois ---BYE----1
#66 (1-0) 22.6 La Tech ---BYE---+1
#67 (2-0) 36.2 Army (W 42-0 vs. Middle Tennessee)+6
#68 (2-0) 21.8 Marshall (W 17-7 vs. App St)+9
#69 (1-1) 18.6 Arkansas St (L 24-37 vs. Memphis)-3
#70 (1-0) 12.8 Ga Southern ---BYE----2
#72 (1-1) 6.7 USF (L 0-52 vs. Notre Dame)-1
#73 (0-2) 11.6 Middle Tennessee (L 0-42 vs. Army)-3
#74 (0-0) -21.5 Rutgers ---BYE----2
#75 (0-1) -10.9 Kansas ---BYE----1
#76 (0-2) 19.5 WKU (L 24-30 vs. Liberty)-1
#77 (0-2) 18.3 Southern Miss (L 21-32 vs. South Alabama)-1
#78 (0-1) 5.4 Georgia St (L 31-34 vs. Louisiana)+1
#79 (0-1) 8.2 Charlotte ---BYE---+2
#80 (1-1) 5.4 South Alabama (W 32-21 vs. Southern Miss)+6
#81 (1-1) 8.5 North Texas (L 35-65 vs. SMU)-1
#82 (0-0) -1.8 East Carolina ---BYE---+0
#83 (0-0) 18.7 FIU ---BYE---+0
#84 (0-2) 8 La Monroe (L 17-38 vs. Texas St)-6
#85 (1-1) 7.3 UAB (W 45-35 vs. FCS)-1
#86 (2-0) 2.7 UTSA (W 24-10 vs. FCS)-1
#87 (1-0) 16.8 Liberty (W 30-24 vs. WKU)+2
#88 (1-1) 2.7 Texas St (W 38-17 vs. La Monroe)+2
#89 (0-1) 9.5 Air Force ---BYE----2
#90 (0-0) 1.3 Rice ---BYE----2
#91 (1-1) -7.2 UTEP (W 17-13 vs. FCS)+0
#92 (0-1) -26.8 Washington ---BYE---+0
#93 (0-1) -26.8 Utah ---BYE---+0
#94 (0-1) -26.8 Oregon ---BYE---+0
#95 (0-1) -26.8 Boise St ---BYE---+0
#96 (0-1) -26.8 USC ---BYE---+0
#97 (0-1) -26.8 Wash St ---BYE---+0
#98 (0-1) -26.8 Stanford ---BYE---+0
#99 (0-1) -26.8 Arizona St ---BYE---+0
#100 (0-1) -26.8 California ---BYE---+0
#101 (0-1) -26.8 Ohio ---BYE---+0
#102 (0-1) -26.8 Colorado ---BYE---+0
#103 (0-1) -26.8 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0
#104 (0-1) -26.8 Utah St ---BYE---+0
#105 (0-1) -26.8 Wyoming ---BYE---+0
#106 (0-1) -26.8 San Diego St ---BYE---+0
#107 (0-1) -26.8 Fresno St ---BYE---+0
#108 (0-1) -26.8 UCLA ---BYE---+0
#109 (0-1) -26.8 Buffalo ---BYE---+0
#110 (0-1) -26.8 Toledo ---BYE---+0
#111 (0-1) -26.8 Arizona ---BYE---+0
#112 (0-1) -26.8 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0
#113 (0-1) -26.8 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0
#114 (0-1) -26.8 Oregon St ---BYE---+1
#115 (0-1) -26.8 Hawaii ---BYE----1
#116 (0-1) -26.8 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0
#117 (0-1) -26.8 Colorado St ---BYE---+1
#118 (0-1) -26.8 Central Michigan ---BYE----1
#119 (0-1) -26.8 Ball St ---BYE---+0
#120 (0-1) -26.8 Nevada ---BYE---+0
#121 (0-1) -26.8 Kent St ---BYE---+0
#122 (0-1) -26.8 San Jose St ---BYE---+0
#123 (0-1) -26.8 New Mexico ---BYE---+0
#124 (0-1) -26.8 UNLV ---BYE---+0
#125 (0-1) -26.8 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0
#126 (0-1) -26.8 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0
#127 (0-1) -26.8 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0
#128 (0-1) -26.8 Akron ---BYE---+0
#129 (0-1) -26.8 UConn ---BYE---+0
#130 (0-1) -26.8 UMass ---BYE---+0

100% (10-0)+W Georgia (1%)
100% (10-0)+W Alabama (19%)
100% (10-0)+W LSU (4%)
100% (11-0)+W Clemson (26%)
100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (4%)
100% (8-0)+W Penn State (5%)
100% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%)
100% (8-0)+W Ohio St (28%)
100% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (2%)
99% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (4%)
99% (10-0)+W Oklahoma (6%)
98% (9-0)+W UCF (20%)
97% (10-0)+W Memphis (1%)
97% (10-1)+W Clemson (31%)
96% (9-1)+W Alabama (23%)
96% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (12%)
96% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%)
95% (9-1)+W Auburn (1%)
94% (9-1)+W LSU (10%)
93% (10-1)+W Miami (3%)
92% (7-1)+W Penn State (9%)
90% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)
90% (11-0)+L  Clemson (7%)
85% (7-1)+W Iowa (3%)
84% (10-0)+L  Alabama (5%)
83% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (11%)
81% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (6%)
79% (7-1)+W Ohio St (17%)
73% (8-1)+W Baylor (1%)
73% (9-1)+W Florida (2%)
68% (10-0)+L  LSU (2%)
66% (9-1)      Alabama (10%)
65% (11-0)+L  Miami (1%)
65% (8-1)+W TCU (1%)
64% (8-0)+L  Penn State (3%)
63% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (9%)
61% (10-0)+L  Georgia (2%)
59% (9-1)      Auburn (3%)
56% (9-2)+W Clemson (7%)
54% (10-1)      Notre Dame (2%)
50% (7-1)      Michigan (6%)
48% (8-0)      BYU (11%)
47% (9-1)+W Oklahoma (16%)
46% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (6%)
46% (8-0)+L  Ohio St (8%)
45% (9-1)      LSU (8%)
44% (9-1)+W Texas (4%)
44% (8-0)+L  Wisconsin (8%)
43% (7-1)      Penn State (13%)
41% (10-1)      Miami (3%)
40% (8-2)+W Alabama (5%)
40% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (2%)
40% (8-0)+L  Iowa (2%)
36% (9-2)+W Miami (2%)
29% (7-1)      Iowa (3%)
29% (10-0)+L  Florida (1%)
25% (8-1)+W UCF (29%)
25% (10-1)+L  Clemson (9%)
23% (9-1)+W Memphis (7%)
23% (8-0)+W Marshall (1%)
22% (7-1)      Ohio St (19%)
22% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (18%)
22% (8-2)+W LSU (3%)
21% (10-1)+W Navy (1%)
21% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma (4%)
20% (9-1)      Florida (1%)
19% (7-1)      Minnesota (1%)
18% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%)
17% (11-0)+W Louisiana (6%)
16% (9-1)+L  Auburn (1%)
16% (7-1)      Wisconsin (4%)
15% (10-0)+L  Memphis (2%)
15% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)
14% (9-1)+L  North Carolina (2%)
14% (8-0)+W FAU (19%)
14% (8-2)+W Georgia (9%)
13% (10-0)+L  Texas (1%)
12% (9-0)+L  UCF (6%)
12% (10-1)+L  Miami (9%)
11% (9-1)+L  Alabama (6%)
11% (6-2)+W Penn State (1%)
9% (11-0)+W La Tech (1%)
8% (6-2)+W Ohio St (1%)
8% (9-2)      Clemson (7%)
7% (8-2)+W Florida (3%)
6% (6-2)+W Wisconsin (5%)
6% (8-1)      UCF (1%)
6% (9-2)      Boston College (4%)
6% (6-2)+W Iowa (2%)
5% (9-2)      Notre Dame (16%)
4% (7-1)+L  Michigan (2%)
4% (7-2)+W Baylor (4%)
4% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (8%)
3% (8-2)      North Carolina (8%)
3% (9-1)+L  Georgia (12%)
3% (7-2)+W TCU (3%)
3% (8-2)      Miss St (1%)
3% (8-2)      Alabama (16%)
3% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (13%)
3% (9-1)+L  LSU (5%)
2% (11-0)      Army (1%)
2% (8-2)+W Houston (1%)
2% (9-2)      Miami (21%)
2% (8-2)      Auburn (18%)
2% (8-2)+W Texas (8%)
1% (9-2)+L  Clemson (3%)
1% (7-1)+L  Penn State (6%)
1% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (14%)
1% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (9%)
1% (8-2)+L  North Carolina (3%)
1% (8-2)+W Memphis (7%)
1% (7-2)+W UCF (9%)
0% (9-2)+L  Boston College (3%)
0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (7%)
0% (8-2)      Houston (3%)
0% (8-2)      LSU (27%)
0% (9-1)+L  Florida (7%)
0% (9-2)+L  Miami (8%)
0% (7-1)+L  Wisconsin (18%)
0% (6-2)      Michigan (29%)
0% (8-2)      Georgia (7%)
0% (9-1)+L  Memphis (10%)
0% (6-2)      Penn State (32%)
0% (7-3)+W Oklahoma St (2%)
0% (7-1)+L  Iowa (11%)
0% (8-1)+L  Baylor (3%)
0% (8-3)      Clemson (3%)
0% (6-2)      Indiana (3%)
0% (7-1)      BYU (36%)
0% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (5%)
0% (7-1)+L  Ohio St (5%)
0% (8-2)      Texas A*M (5%)
0% (8-2)      Oklahoma St (6%)
0% (7-3)      Alabama (7%)
0% (8-3)      Notre Dame (14%)
0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma (9%)
0% (10-1)+W App St (10%)
0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (16%)
0% (7-3)      North Carolina (23%)
0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (23%)
0% (7-1)+W FAU (26%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (25%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (31%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (40%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (9%)
97% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (22%)
97% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (48%)
94% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)
84% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (46%)
73% 1-loss at large ACC (23%)
59% 1-loss at large SEC (36%)
53% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (34%)
49% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (18%)
37% 1-loss at large Big Ten (75%)
25% 1-loss at large Big 12 (8%)
24% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (41%)
20% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (22%)
17% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (7%)
14% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (23%)
11% 1-loss at large AAC (11%)
10% 2-loss at large ACC (112%)
8% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (12%)
5% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (1%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (44%)
2% 2-loss at large SEC (122%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (27%)
0% 2-loss at large Big Ten (190%)
0% 3-loss at large ACC (160%)
0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (59%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (10%)
0% 2-loss at large AAC (72%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (30%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (37%)
0% 3-loss at large SEC (169%)

Playoff %
1) 71.44% Clemson
2) 56.48% Alabama
3) 50.65% Ohio St
4) 30.86% Notre Dame
5) 28.18% UCF
6) 23.5% Penn State
7) 20.56% LSU
8) 18.86% Wisconsin
9) 15.13% Oklahoma
10) 11.26% Georgia
11) 9.48% Oklahoma St
12) 9.02% Michigan
13) 8.91% Miami
14) 6.36% Iowa
15) 5.61% BYU
16) 5.35% Auburn
17) 4.27% Memphis
18) 3.22% Texas
19) 2.93% Virginia Tech
20) 2.87% Florida
21) 2.87% FAU
22) 1.85% Baylor
23) 1.83% North Carolina
24) 1.33% TCU
25) 1.15% Louisiana
26) 0.85% Minnesota
27) 0.83% Boston College
28) 0.54% Houston
29) 0.41% Marshall
30) 0.39% Texas A*M
31) 0.37% Navy
32) 0.24% Indiana
33) 0.2% Nebraska
34) 0.16% Troy
35) 0.15% Miss St
36) 0.15% Pittsburgh
37) 0.15% Texas Tech
38) 0.15% La Tech
39) 0.14% Temple
40) 0.13% Illinois
41) 0.12% Arkansas
42) 0.11% Rutgers
43) 0.09% South Carolina
44) 0.09% Cincinnati
45) 0.08% West Virginia
46) 0.07% Tennessee
47) 0.07% Kentucky
48) 0.06% Mich St
49) 0.06% East Carolina
50) 0.05% Ole Miss
51) 0.05% Maryland
52) 0.04% Purdue
53) 0.04% SMU
54) 0.03% Kansas St
55) 0.03% Army
56) 0.02% Missouri
57) 0.02% Vanderbilt
58) 0.02% Georgia Tech
59) 0.02% Northwestern
60) 0.02% Kansas
61) 0.02% Rice
62) 0.01% Florida St
63) 0.01% Louisville
64) 0.01% Iowa St
65) 0.01% UTSA
66) 0.01% Ga Southern
67) 0.01% App St

Top G5 Champ %
1) 49.84% UCF
2) 13.36% Memphis
3) 12.79% FAU
4) 6.45% Navy
5) 6.16% Louisiana
6) 2.35% App St
7) 2.28% Houston
8) 1.4% Marshall
9) 1.3% La Tech
10) 1.04% Troy
11) 0.72% Cincinnati
12) 0.71% SMU
13) 0.68% Temple
14) 0.22% Tulane
15) 0.16% Arkansas St
16) 0.15% East Carolina
17) 0.07% Tulsa
18) 0.07% Ga Southern
19) 0.06% Texas St
20) 0.05% USF
21) 0.05% Rice
22) 0.03% UTSA
23) 0.03% FIU
24) 0.01% Georgia St

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
86.77% Clemson (353/550) *1783*
70.45% Alabama (1609/2045) *655*
65.29% Ohio St (1280/1792) *567*
57.76% Oregon (0/0) *0*
54.4% UCF (38/94) *418*
46.21% Notre Dame (601/1198) *1693*
42.94% Oklahoma (20/50) *336*
35.32% LSU (1391/1995) *345*
31.73% Penn State (1109/2025) *405*
31.51% Oklahoma St (43/110) *315*
30.11% Wisconsin (284/580) *614*
27.26% Georgia (184/315) *365*
25.53% USC (0/0) *0*
17.68% Miami (471/1554) *599*
16.79% Texas (20/48) *130*
15.74% Arizona St (0/0) *0*
15.11% Michigan (751/1545) *229*
14.95% Memphis (15/49) *144*
13.05% Auburn (724/1348) *189*
12.79% FAU (0/5) *0*
12.1% Iowa (195/467) *226*
9.4% Florida (107/234) *133*
8.47% Baylor (10/39) *86*
6.81% TCU (5/35) *59*
6.46% Navy (1/6) *0*
6.27% Virginia Tech (151/683) *260*
6.16% Louisiana (0/1) *0*
3.93% North Carolina (113/479) *161*
2.78% Houston (12/54) *38*
2.35% App St (0/0) *0*
2.32% Boston College (73/393) *94*
2.09% Minnesota (62/233) *29*
1.43% BYU (139/1285) *4*
1.41% Texas A*M (79/220) *22*
1.4% Marshall (0/13) *0*
1.3% Kansas St (0/0) *0*
1.3% La Tech (0/0) *0*
1.06% Troy (2/11) *0*
1.01% Iowa St (0/0) *0*
0.92% California (0/0) *0*
0.81% Cincinnati (1/7) *8*
0.77% Temple (0/5) *9*
0.74% SMU (1/9) *2*
0.58% Nebraska (14/67) *10*
0.5% Miss St (30/72) *9*
0.5% Indiana (21/97) *5*
0.48% West Virginia (0/1) *0*
0.47% Pittsburgh (19/63) *17*
0.41% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.41% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*
0.28% Kentucky (2/16) *1*
0.28% Mich St (13/31) *6*
0.26% South Carolina (1/8) *3*
0.26% Missouri (2/8) *1*
0.23% Tulane (1/6) *0*
0.22% Arkansas (12/17) *1*
0.2% East Carolina (0/0) *5*
0.17% Tennessee (5/7) *0*
0.17% Illinois (4/8) *1*
0.16% NC State (5/37) *5*
0.16% Arkansas St (0/0) *0*
0.15% Ole Miss (8/9) *1*
0.15% Northwestern (3/11) *3*
0.14% Rutgers (3/4) *1*
0.12% Vanderbilt (2/5) *4*
0.1% Purdue (2/7) *2*
0.09% Georgia Tech (2/4) *1*
0.09% Maryland (2/10) *3*
0.07% Tulsa (0/0) *0*
0.07% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*
0.06% Texas St (0/0) *0*
0.05% Colorado (0/0) *0*
0.05% USF (0/0) *0*
0.05% Rice (0/0) *0*
0.04% Florida St (1/1) *1*
0.03% Louisville (1/7) *1*
0.03% UTSA (0/0) *0*
0.03% FIU (0/0) *0*
0.02% Army (2/17) *0*
0.02% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.01% Syracuse (0/1) *0*
0.01% Virginia (1/9) *0*
0.01% Duke (0/0) *1*
0.01% Georgia St (0/0) *0*
09-22-2020 11:42 PM
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Crayton Online
2nd String
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Posts: 372
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 39
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #7
RE: The Year That Is (Week 3: Ohio State to the playoff!!)
Quick Sim before Week 4 games, with Big Ten (only) returning to play. This seemed to be the more interesting part of the last thread.

After December 5th, the top of the standings look like this. All CCGs are set to Dec. 19th.

SEC
#1 Alabama (10-0; 366-209)
#3 LSU (9-1; 322-184) lost to Alabama 14-29
#10 Georgia (8-2; 302-192) lost to Alabama 10-62 and Florida 13-22
#11 Florida (8-2; 336-206) lost to A&M 7-26 and LSU 20-21

ACC
#2 Clemson (10-0; 408-183)
#4 Miami (9-1; 410-227) lost to Clemson 31-32
#5 Notre Dame (8-1; 346-224) lost to Clemson 10-48

Big Ten
#6 Iowa (6-1; 234-133) lost to Minnesota 13-14
#7 Minnesota (6-1; 223-146) lost to Wisconsin 21-24
#8 Wisconsin (6-1; 223-149) lost to Michigan 27-31
#9 Ohio State (6-1; 246-149) lost to Penn State 21-36
#14 Penn State (5-2; 211-125) lost to Indiana 21-24 and Iowa 28-31
#16 Michigan (5-2; 205-142) lost to Minnesota 20-22 and Penn State 13-38

Big 12
#12 Oklahoma (7-2; 336-199) lost to Texas 20-23 and OK State 17-20
#13 Baylor (7-2; 256-180) lost to TCU 13-17 and Oklahoma 20-34

Top non-Autonomous teams
#21 BYU (7-1; 330-162) lost to Houston 23-26
#22 UCF (7-2, 6-2; 345-175) lost to Tulsa 24-27 and Houston 30-32
#23 Marshall (7-1, 5-1; 257-132) lost to La Tech 17-24
#25 SMU (9-2, 6-2; 366-232) lost to Navy 31-32 and Tulsa 21-28
#27 FAU (6-1, 6-1; 183-141) lost to Marshall 10-21

December 12th outcomes
Notre Dame beats Wake Forest 39-20... but can they jump the Hurricanes for #4?
Penn State slaughters MSU 72-14... but Michigan fails to overcome OSU 35-44
Iowa defeats Wisconsin 23-20
Minnesota falls to Nebraska 14-21... giving the division to Iowa

December 19th games // results
#1 Alabama (10-0) vs. #12 Florida (8-2) // 22-21
#2 Clemson (10-0) vs. #5 Miami (10-1) // 54-21
#4 Iowa (7-1) vs. #7 Ohio State (7-1) // 23-20
#3 LSU (9-1) vs. #6 Notre Dame (10-1) // don't you wish

Playoffs // results
#1 Alabama vs. #4 LSU // 21-20
#2 Clemson vs. #3 Iowa // 29-28
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Clemson // 33-24

addendum: UCF climbed to #12 following a 45-14 triumph to win the American and ascend to the NY6. Tie-breakers are still am enigma for these divisionless structures; and if there are an uneven number of games within divisions... don't get me started.
(This post was last modified: 09-26-2020 12:10 AM by Crayton.)
09-26-2020 12:07 AM
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Crayton Online
2nd String
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Posts: 372
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 39
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #8
RE: The Year That Is (Week 3: Ohio State to the playoff!!)
While losses knocked LSU and Oklahoma each to about 1% playoff odds, the big riser this week was from an unexpected corner. Miami gained 6% chance toward a playoff berth, while Alabama, Texas, OK State and Memphis each grabbed 3%.

But the big surprise was BYU's grab of a playoff spot 1/5 of the time. Winning a second game by an exceptional margin improved the likelihood that the Cougars' wins are no fluke. Still, they'll have to win out (30% chance; 50% if you follow ESPN) to be considered, and they'll need fewer than 4 Power teams to finish with more than 1 loss.

Until the MW/P12/MAC release schedules, they'll be excluded from the postseason

Non-P5 entrances into NY6 (including at-larges)
54% UCF
18% Memphis
12% FAU
8% BYU
7% Louisiana
6% Navy
3% Houston
2% Cincinnati
1% Marshall
1% App St
<1% anyone else
full data:
Code:
Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)
#1 (1-0) 24.2 Alabama (W 38-19 vs. Missouri)+2
#2 (2-0) 46.7 Clemson ---BYE----1
#3 (0-0) 29.3 Ohio St ---BYE---+1
#4 (1-0) 15.9 Georgia (W 37-10 vs. Arkansas)+2
#5 (0-0) 19.1 Penn State ---BYE---+2
#6 (1-0) 13.5 Auburn (W 29-13 vs. Kentucky)+3
#7 (2-0) 32.7 Notre Dame ---BYE----5
#8 (3-0) 27.6 Miami (W 52-10 vs. Florida St)+9
#9 (0-0) 17.1 Wisconsin ---BYE----1
#10 (0-0) 15.9 Michigan ---BYE---+0
#11 (0-1) 15.8 LSU (L 34-44 vs. Miss St)-6
#12 (1-0) 10.1 Florida (W 51-35 vs. Ole Miss)-1
#13 (2-0) 28.2 UCF (W 51-28 vs. East Carolina)+3
#14 (2-0) 13.1 Oklahoma St (W 27-13 vs. West Virginia)+1
#15 (0-0) 12.7 Iowa ---BYE----3
#16 (1-0) 5 Miss St (W 44-34 vs. LSU)+2
#17 (1-0) 5.1 Texas A*M (W 17-12 vs. Vanderbilt)-3
#18 (2-0) 14.7 Texas (W 63-56 vs. Texas Tech)+1
#19 (2-0) 32.2 Memphis ---BYE---+1
#20 (1-0) 23 Virginia Tech (W 45-24 vs. NC State)+4
#21 (1-1) 20.3 Oklahoma (L 35-38 vs. Kansas St)-8
#22 (1-0) 9.3 Baylor (W 47-14 vs. Kansas)+1
#23 (0-0) 5.4 Minnesota ---BYE----1
#24 (1-0) 21.8 North Carolina ---BYE---+4
#25 (2-0) 16.9 Boston College (W 24-21 vs. Texas St)+6
#26 (3-0) 18.3 Pittsburgh (W 23-20 vs. Louisville)+13
#27 (3-0) 20.5 Louisiana (W 20-18 vs. Ga Southern)+11
#28 (0-0) 1.1 Indiana ---BYE----1
#29 (1-1) 9.7 Kansas St (W 38-35 vs. Oklahoma)+12
#30 (1-1) 17.9 Navy ---BYE---+2
#31 (0-1) 0.4 Kentucky (L 13-29 vs. Auburn)-10
#32 (0-1) 0.3 Missouri (L 19-38 vs. Alabama)-7
#33 (1-0) -2.1 Tennessee (W 31-27 vs. South Carolina)+1
#34 (2-0) 20.2 Cincinnati (W 24-10 vs. Army)+11
#35 (2-0) 37 BYU (W 48-7 vs. Troy)+17
#36 (0-0) 0.4 Nebraska ---BYE----6
#37 (1-1) 7.2 Iowa St (W 37-34 vs. TCU)+5
#38 (0-0) 0.4 Mich St ---BYE----5
#39 (0-0) 22.3 FAU ---BYE----2
#40 (2-1) 23.4 App St (W 52-21 vs. FCS)-4
#41 (0-0) 17.6 Houston ---BYE----1
#42 (1-0) 23.7 Virginia (W 38-20 vs. Duke)+13
#43 (0-1) 7.4 TCU (L 34-37 vs. Iowa St)-17
#44 (0-1) -1.5 South Carolina (L 27-31 vs. Tennessee)-15
#45 (0-0) -2.9 Northwestern ---BYE----2
#46 (0-0) 14.7 Temple ---BYE---+0
#47 (0-1) -4.3 Ole Miss (L 35-51 vs. Florida)-12
#48 (1-2) 14.5 Syracuse (W 37-20 vs. Georgia Tech)+12
#49 (0-2) 20.4 Florida St (L 10-52 vs. Miami)-5
#50 (2-1) 18.8 Tulane (W 66-24 vs. Southern Miss)+8
#51 (1-1) 15.4 NC State (L 24-45 vs. Virginia Tech)-4
#52 (0-2) 23.6 Wake Forest ---BYE---+2
#53 (0-0) -3.3 Purdue ---BYE----2
#54 (0-0) -6.2 Maryland ---BYE----4
#55 (2-1) 17 SMU (W 50-7 vs. FCS)+4
#56 (1-2) 16.9 Louisville (L 20-23 vs. Pittsburgh)-8
#57 (1-2) 10.2 Georgia Tech (L 20-37 vs. Syracuse)-8
#58 (1-1) 5.7 West Virginia (L 13-27 vs. Oklahoma St)-1
#59 (1-1) 17.8 Troy (L 7-48 vs. BYU)-6
#60 (1-1) 16.9 Arkansas St ---BYE---+4
#61 (2-0) 15.7 La Tech (W 66-38 vs. FCS)+6
#62 (2-0) 18.3 Marshall ---BYE---+7
#63 (0-1) -13.5 Arkansas (L 10-37 vs. Georgia)-7
#64 (0-1) 10.1 Tulsa ---BYE---+1
#65 (0-1) -10.9 Vanderbilt (L 12-17 vs. Texas A*M)-4
#66 (0-3) 12.9 Duke (L 20-38 vs. Virginia)-4
#67 (1-1) 0.7 Texas Tech (L 56-63 vs. Texas)-4
#68 (0-0) -11.2 Illinois ---BYE----2
#69 (2-1) 34.4 Army (L 10-24 vs. Cincinnati)-1
#71 (2-0) 16.5 Liberty (W 36-34 vs. FIU)+16
#72 (1-1) 6.1 USF ---BYE---+0
#73 (1-1) 9.6 Ga Southern (L 18-20 vs. Louisiana)-3
#74 (0-0) -19.9 Rutgers ---BYE---+0
#75 (0-2) 19 WKU ---BYE---+1
#76 (2-1) 8.8 UAB (W 42-10 vs. South Alabama)+9
#77 (0-1) 1.4 Georgia St ---BYE---+1
#78 (0-2) -11.1 Kansas (L 14-47 vs. Baylor)-3
#79 (0-3) 8.4 Middle Tennessee (L 35-37 vs. UTSA)-6
#80 (0-1) 6.6 Charlotte ---BYE---+0
#81 (3-0) 3.1 UTSA (W 37-35 vs. Middle Tennessee)+5
#82 (0-3) 14.6 Southern Miss (L 24-66 vs. Tulane)-3
#83 (1-1) 6.8 North Texas ---BYE---+0
#84 (0-1) -2.2 East Carolina (L 28-51 vs. UCF)-3
#85 (0-1) 16.8 FIU (L 34-36 vs. Liberty)-3
#86 (1-2) 0.8 South Alabama (L 10-42 vs. UAB)-9
#87 (1-2) 1 Texas St (L 21-24 vs. Boston College)+1
#88 (0-3) 1.2 La Monroe (L 6-31 vs. UTEP)-4
#89 (0-0) 0.1 Rice ---BYE---+1
#90 (0-1) 9 Air Force ---BYE----1
#91 (2-1) -5.1 UTEP (W 31-6 vs. La Monroe)+0
#92 (0-1) -26.7 Washington ---BYE---+0
#93 (0-1) -26.7 Utah ---BYE---+0
#94 (0-1) -26.7 Oregon ---BYE---+0
#95 (0-1) -26.7 Boise St ---BYE---+0
#96 (0-1) -26.7 USC ---BYE---+0
#97 (0-1) -26.7 Wash St ---BYE---+0
#98 (0-1) -26.7 Stanford ---BYE---+0
#99 (0-1) -26.7 Arizona St ---BYE---+0
#100 (0-1) -26.7 California ---BYE---+0
#101 (0-1) -26.7 Ohio ---BYE---+0
#102 (0-1) -26.7 Colorado ---BYE---+0
#103 (0-1) -26.7 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0
#104 (0-1) -26.7 Utah St ---BYE---+0
#105 (0-1) -26.7 Wyoming ---BYE---+0
#106 (0-1) -26.7 San Diego St ---BYE---+0
#107 (0-1) -26.7 Fresno St ---BYE---+0
#108 (0-1) -26.7 UCLA ---BYE---+0
#109 (0-1) -26.7 Buffalo ---BYE---+0
#110 (0-1) -26.7 Toledo ---BYE---+0
#111 (0-1) -26.7 Arizona ---BYE---+0
#112 (0-1) -26.7 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0
#113 (0-1) -26.7 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0
#114 (0-1) -26.7 Hawaii ---BYE---+1
#115 (0-1) -26.7 Oregon St ---BYE----1
#116 (0-1) -26.7 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0
#117 (0-1) -26.7 Colorado St ---BYE---+0
#118 (0-1) -26.7 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0
#119 (0-1) -26.7 Ball St ---BYE---+0
#120 (0-1) -26.7 Nevada ---BYE---+0
#121 (0-1) -26.7 Kent St ---BYE---+0
#122 (0-1) -26.7 San Jose St ---BYE---+0
#123 (0-1) -26.7 New Mexico ---BYE---+0
#124 (0-1) -26.7 UNLV ---BYE---+0
#125 (0-1) -26.7 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0
#126 (0-1) -26.7 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0
#127 (0-1) -26.7 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0
#128 (0-1) -26.7 Akron ---BYE---+0
#129 (0-1) -26.7 UConn ---BYE---+0
#130 (0-1) -26.7 UMass ---BYE---+0

100% (10-0)+W Georgia (1%)
100% (10-0)+W Alabama (21%)
100% (11-0)+W Clemson (24%)
100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (3%)
100% (8-0)+W Penn State (5%)
100% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%)
100% (8-0)+W Ohio St (26%)
100% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (4%)
100% (10-0)+W Texas (1%)
100% (10-0)+W Memphis (2%)
99% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (3%)
99% (9-0)+W UCF (16%)
98% (10-1)+W Clemson (30%)
97% (10-1)+W Virginia Tech (1%)
96% (10-1)+W Miami (5%)
96% (9-1)+W Alabama (27%)
95% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (10%)
94% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)
94% (9-1)+W Auburn (2%)
93% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%)
93% (11-0)+L  Clemson (6%)
91% (7-1)+W Penn State (9%)
85% (10-0)+L  Alabama (6%)
83% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (5%)
79% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (10%)
79% (7-1)+W Iowa (3%)
77% (11-0)+L  Miami (2%)
77% (8-0)+L  Michigan (1%)
76% (7-1)+W Ohio St (18%)
74% (8-0)      BYU (32%)
73% (10-0)+L  Georgia (1%)
71% (8-0)+L  Penn State (3%)
68% (9-1)      Alabama (3%)
64% (9-1)+W Florida (3%)
60% (8-1)+W Baylor (2%)
60% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (12%)
55% (9-2)+W Clemson (8%)
55% (10-1)      Miami (2%)
52% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (1%)
51% (9-1)      Auburn (4%)
50% (9-1)+W Memphis (9%)
49% (10-1)+W Navy (1%)
48% (10-1)      Notre Dame (3%)
48% (8-0)+L  Iowa (2%)
48% (7-1)      Michigan (6%)
48% (9-1)+W Texas (8%)
46% (8-0)+L  Ohio St (7%)
43% (9-1)+W Oklahoma (2%)
42% (8-1)+W UCF (28%)
40% (8-0)+L  Wisconsin (6%)
40% (7-1)      Penn State (13%)
40% (9-2)+W Miami (4%)
36% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (2%)
35% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (4%)
29% (8-2)+W Alabama (8%)
28% (10-1)+L  Clemson (9%)
27% (10-0)+L  Texas (1%)
26% (9-1)+W Cincinnati (1%)
24% (9-0)+W Marshall (2%)
24% (9-0)+L  UCF (5%)
24% (10-0)+L  Memphis (2%)
23% (10-0)+L  Florida (2%)
22% (7-1)      Ohio St (18%)
21% (7-0)+W FAU (21%)
20% (7-1)      Wisconsin (4%)
19% (8-2)+W Auburn (2%)
18% (10-1)+L  Miami (12%)
17% (7-2)+W Houston (1%)
17% (11-0)+W Louisiana (11%)
17% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (4%)
16% (7-1)      Iowa (2%)
16% (6-2)+W Michigan (1%)
15% (8-2)+W Georgia (8%)
15% (7-1)      Minnesota (1%)
14% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (15%)
13% (9-1)+L  North Carolina (2%)
12% (8-2)+W LSU (1%)
11% (9-1)+L  Alabama (8%)
9% (6-2)+W Penn State (1%)
8% (9-2)      Pittsburgh (1%)
8% (9-1)+L  Auburn (3%)
6% (9-1)      Florida (1%)
5% (9-2)      Clemson (8%)
5% (6-2)+W Ohio St (1%)
5% (6-2)+W Wisconsin (5%)
4% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (9%)
4% (9-1)+L  Georgia (11%)
3% (9-2)      Boston College (3%)
3% (9-2)      Miami (21%)
3% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (17%)
3% (8-1)+L  Houston (1%)
3% (7-2)+W Baylor (5%)
2% (9-1)+L  Miss St (1%)
2% (7-1)      BYU (46%)
2% (8-2)+W Memphis (8%)
2% (6-2)+W Iowa (3%)
2% (9-2)      Notre Dame (20%)
2% (8-2)      North Carolina (7%)
2% (7-1)+L  Penn State (6%)
2% (8-2)+W Kansas St (1%)
2% (9-2)+W Navy (5%)
2% (8-2)      Alabama (10%)
1% (8-2)+W Florida (4%)
1% (7-1)+L  Michigan (3%)
1% (9-2)+L  Clemson (2%)
1% (7-2)+W UCF (11%)
1% (8-2)      Auburn (22%)
1% (8-2)+W Texas (12%)
1% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (6%)
1% (9-2)+L  Miami (10%)
0% (9-2)+L  Boston College (2%)
0% (8-2)      Georgia (9%)
0% (6-2)      Nebraska (1%)
0% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (7%)
0% (8-2)      Texas A*M (4%)
0% (7-1)+L  Iowa (11%)
0% (8-2)      Miss St (10%)
0% (8-1)+L  UCF (10%)
0% (8-2)+W Cincinnati (1%)
0% (9-1)+L  Memphis (9%)
0% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (7%)
0% (6-2)      Michigan (28%)
0% (9-1)+L  Texas (7%)
0% (9-1)+L  Florida (10%)
0% (8-2)+L  North Carolina (2%)
0% (10-1)+L  Navy (2%)
0% (7-3)+W Georgia (3%)
0% (8-2)      LSU (9%)
0% (7-1)+L  Wisconsin (17%)
0% (6-2)      Penn State (31%)
0% (7-1)+L  Ohio St (6%)
0% (8-2)      Memphis (12%)
0% (8-1)+W Marshall (6%)
0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (7%)
0% (8-3)      Miami (23%)
0% (6-1)+W FAU (25%)
0% (8-2)      Florida (13%)
0% (6-2)      Wisconsin (18%)
0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (25%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (24%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (29%)
100% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (38%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (5%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (18%)
97% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (48%)
92% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (42%)
82% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (46%)
74% 1-loss at large ACC (22%)
58% 1-loss at large SEC (23%)
54% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (26%)
46% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (20%)
44% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (41%)
36% 1-loss at large Big Ten (69%)
34% 1-loss at large Big 12 (4%)
21% 1-loss at large AAC (10%)
21% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (24%)
17% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (26%)
17% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (11%)
9% 2-loss at large ACC (118%)
5% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (13%)
3% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (1%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (29%)
2% 2-loss at large SEC (118%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (46%)
0% 2-loss at large Big Ten (187%)
0% 2-loss at large AAC (74%)
0% 3-loss at large ACC (166%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (5%)
0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (37%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (37%)

Playoff %
1) 69.06% Clemson
2) 59.66% Alabama
3) 48.86% Ohio St
4) 30.49% UCF
5) 25.76% BYU
6) 24.36% Notre Dame
7) 22.29% Penn State
8) 16.78% Wisconsin
9) 14.06% Miami
10) 12.13% Oklahoma St
11) 12.11% Georgia
12) 8.67% Michigan
13) 7.54% Memphis
14) 7.13% Auburn
15) 6.21% Texas
16) 5.18% Iowa
17) 4.66% Virginia Tech
18) 4.58% FAU
19) 3.91% Florida
20) 2.05% Baylor
21) 2.01% Louisiana
22) 1.59% North Carolina
23) 1.36% Miss St
24) 1.16% LSU
25) 1.04% Oklahoma
26) 0.92% Houston
27) 0.87% Minnesota
28) 0.78% Navy
29) 0.63% Boston College
30) 0.53% Texas A*M
31) 0.53% Cincinnati
32) 0.51% Marshall
33) 0.33% Pittsburgh
34) 0.26% Indiana
35) 0.21% Nebraska
36) 0.19% Temple
37) 0.18% La Tech
38) 0.16% Kansas St
39) 0.14% Mich St
40) 0.11% Rutgers
41) 0.11% TCU
42) 0.11% Tulane
43) 0.09% Tennessee
44) 0.09% Virginia
45) 0.09% Illinois
46) 0.09% SMU
47) 0.08% Maryland
48) 0.08% Iowa St
49) 0.06% Northwestern
50) 0.05% Vanderbilt
51) 0.03% Purdue
52) 0.02% Arkansas
53) 0.02% Ole Miss
54) 0.02% West Virginia
55) 0.01% South Carolina
56) 0.01% Kentucky
57) 0.01% Missouri
58) 0.01% Georgia Tech
59) 0.01% East Carolina
60) 0.01% UTSA

Top G5 Champ %
1) 47.62% UCF
2) 15.43% Memphis
3) 12.75% FAU
4) 7.49% Louisiana
5) 6.71% Navy
6) 2.23% Cincinnati
7) 2.22% Houston
8) 1.5% Marshall
9) 1% App St
10) 0.75% La Tech
11) 0.72% Temple
12) 0.72% SMU
13) 0.4% Tulane
14) 0.16% Troy
15) 0.09% Tulsa
16) 0.05% USF
17) 0.05% UTSA
18) 0.04% Arkansas St
19) 0.02% East Carolina
20) 0.01% UAB
21) 0.01% Charlotte
22) 0.01% Georgia St
23) 0.01% Ga Southern

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
86.98% Clemson (504/647) *1831*
73.43% Alabama (741/937) *827*
64.52% Ohio St (1249/1638) *534*
54.99% Oregon (0/0) *0*
54% UCF (47/101) *591*
39.68% Oklahoma St (27/72) *293*
39.66% Notre Dame (800/1314) *1214*
31.86% Penn State (1168/1827) *391*
29.25% Miami (788/1493) *1050*
29.19% Wisconsin (308/507) *482*
27.79% Georgia (271/432) *478*
27.51% Texas (20/66) *181*
26.73% Arizona St (0/0) *0*
18.55% Memphis (53/106) *259*
17.05% Auburn (893/1541) *199*
14.61% Michigan (705/1306) *210*
14.61% USC (0/0) *0*
13.4% Florida (140/268) *171*
12.87% Oklahoma (8/19) *26*
12.82% FAU (4/4) *3*
11.48% Iowa (167/372) *193*
11.06% Baylor (13/36) *81*
10.2% Virginia Tech (302/734) *361*
8.77% BYU (863/4086) *14*
7.86% Kansas St (0/1) *1*
7.49% Louisiana (0/1) *0*
6.8% Navy (2/9) *7*
5.14% Iowa St (0/0) *6*
4.78% LSU (150/268) *57*
4.57% North Carolina (119/352) *204*
4.41% Miss St (245/569) *57*
3.22% California (0/0) *0*
3.05% Houston (25/124) *58*
2.53% Cincinnati (7/39) *23*
2.06% Minnesota (50/167) *43*
1.91% Boston College (91/289) *54*
1.72% Texas A*M (86/215) *24*
1.56% TCU (0/0) *3*
1.51% Marshall (0/6) *1*
1% App St (0/0) *0*
0.95% Pittsburgh (36/136) *24*
0.85% Temple (4/14) *9*
0.83% SMU (3/13) *8*
0.75% La Tech (0/0) *0*
0.66% Indiana (39/94) *4*
0.58% Nebraska (16/38) *7*
0.44% Tulane (2/13) *2*
0.43% Colorado (0/0) *0*
0.35% Tennessee (7/15) *1*
0.3% Mich St (13/31) *5*
0.28% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.22% West Virginia (0/1) *1*
0.21% Maryland (10/16) *1*
0.19% Illinois (2/5) *0*
0.19% Northwestern (1/5) *3*
0.19% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*
0.16% Troy (0/0) *0*
0.15% Rutgers (7/8) *0*
0.14% Arkansas (3/4) *3*
0.13% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.13% Ole Miss (2/3) *2*
0.12% Virginia (4/29) *1*
0.11% Kentucky (3/5) *0*
0.11% Missouri (0/0) *0*
0.09% Purdue (1/7) *0*
0.09% Tulsa (0/0) *0*
0.06% Georgia Tech (0/1) *0*
0.05% South Carolina (0/1) *0*
0.05% USF (0/0) *0*
0.05% UTSA (0/0) *0*
0.04% Arkansas St (0/0) *0*
0.03% East Carolina (0/0) *1*
0.02% NC State (1/5) *1*
0.02% Washington (0/0) *0*
0.01% Syracuse (0/2) *0*
0.01% UAB (0/0) *0*
0.01% Charlotte (0/0) *0*
0.01% Georgia St (0/0) *0*
0.01% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*
0.01% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*
(This post was last modified: 09-28-2020 08:10 PM by Crayton.)
09-28-2020 06:06 PM
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Crayton Online
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Posts: 372
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 39
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #9
RE: The Year That Is (Week 4: LSU and OU tumble)
Here is this week's sim. Three new faces in the playoffs. Georgia suffers a familiar fate. Clemson fails to win the ACC, and the best G5 team doesn't even play for its conference championship. We start with the standings after the games on December 5th:

Big 12
#1 OK State (9-1, 8-1; 343-214) lost to Oklahoma 17-35
#23 Baylor (6-3, 6-3; 251-233) lost to OK State 21-47, Texas 28-47, Iowa St 16-40
#24 Oklahoma (7-3, 6-3; 318-203) lost to Iowa St 16-18 and Baylor 17-24
#27 Iowa St (6-4, 6-3; 241-206) lost to OK State 17-30, Kansas 21-23, Texas 17-20

SEC
#2 Georgia (9-1; 285-204) lost to South Carolina 27-36
#7 Alabama (8-2; 345-195) lost to Georgia 17-20 and LSU 17-24
#10 Florida (8-2; 272-193) lost to LSU 7-10 and Georgia 28-31
#18 Miss St (7-3; 288-234) lost to Kentucky 28-31, Alabama 10-54, and Georgia 21-28
#22 LSU (7-3; 203-176) lost to Missouri 23-24 and Texas A&M 7-29

ACC
#3 Clemson (10-1, 9-1; 505-169) lost to Notre Dame 17-26
#4 Miami (10-1, 9-1; 334-234) lost to Clemson 14-55
#11 Notre Dame (8-2, 7-2; 415-190) lost to FSU 28-32 and UNC 28-35

Big Ten
#5 Penn State (6-1; 254-123) lost to Indiana 17-18
#6 Michigan (6-1; 215-125) lost to Penn State 19-20
#9 Wisconsin (6-1; 209-171) lost to Michigan 20-45
#15 Ohio State (5-2; 218-160) lost to Penn State 16-31 and Maryland 21-22
#17 Michigan St (5-2; 223-172) lost to Michigan 17-31 and Ohio State 28-50
#20 Iowa (5-2; 216-170) lost to Michigan St 13-19 and Penn State 14-54

Top non-Autonomous teams
#8 Houston (7-2, 6-2; 294-208) lost to UCF 17-20 and Memphis 14-48
#12 BYU (7-1; 366-148) lost to Houston 20-39
#13 Navy (8-2, 7-1; 248-225) lost to Houston 17-19
#14 UCF (7-2, 6-2; 265-182) lost to Tulsa 21-24 and Memphis 14-28
#16 Louisiana (9-2, 7-1; 376-198) lost to App St 16-23 and UAB 21-24
#19 Temple (6-2, 6-2; 220-190) lost to Navy 17-24 and UCF 24-40
#21 App St (9-2, 7-1; 341-199) lost to Georgia Southern 14-26
#25 Marshall (7-1, 5-1; 258-166) lost to La Tech 24-47
#28 La Tech (9-2, 7-1; 379-248) lost to BYU 20-21 and Rice 24-41
#29 FAU (6-1, 6-1; 212-129) lost to Marshall 28-32

December 12th Outcomes
Notre Dame beats Wake Forest 34-21, but 2 conference losses exclude them from the CCG
Wisconsin tops Iowa, 26-24, to secure the West crown
Michigan loses again to Ohio State, 24-42, locking Penn State into the Big Ten Championship
Penn State goes ahead and blows out Michigan State, 54-17, as they head to meet Wisconsin
Rice upsets Marshall, 32-31, giving FAU the Conference USA East crown
Navy, headed to the American Championship Game, blows it against Army, 27-28

December 19th games // results
#1 Penn State (7-1) vs. #7 Wisconsin (7-1) // 40-17
#2 OK State (9-1) vs. #26 Iowa State (6-4) // 48-16
#3 Georgia (9-1) vs. #9 Alabama (8-2) // 10-29
#4 Clemson (10-1) vs. #5 Miami (10-1) // 27-38
#6 Michigan (6-2) vs. #27 Iowa (5-3) // 26-23
#8 Houston (7-2) vs. #10 Notre Dame (9-2) // nope
#14 Louisiana (9-2) vs. #21 App St (9-2) // 24-26
#15 UCF (7-2) vs. #18 Navy (8-3) // 22-21

Playoffs // results
#1 Miami vs. #4 Alabama // 10-14
#2 Penn State vs. #3 OK State // 16-19
#1 OK State vs. #2 Alabama // 17-32
(This post was last modified: 09-28-2020 08:56 PM by Crayton.)
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Crayton Online
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Posts: 372
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 39
I Root For: Florida
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Post: #10
RE: The Year That Is (Week 5: OK State stands alone)
As more schedules are released, the playoff outcomes continue to morph generously. This past weekend both the Mountain West and Pac-12 released their 8- and 7-game schedules, respectively. The computer thinks very poorly of a 6-1 record, so the Mountain West is the larger benefactor here, replacing the American and joining all 5 Power conferences as likely to place a team in the playoff if their champion is undefeated.

UCF, Memphis, Auburn, Texas, Baylor, and Mississippi State all fell yesterday, but the addition of two conferences meant that few teams in conferences-already-active made advancements in the playoff standings.

The two big gainers were OK State and Louisiana, +4% overall for each. OK State benefitted from both Oklahoma and Texas losing and seeing their chances of acing their schedule improve. Louisiana's game vs. App State was postponed, but the Sun Belt's out of conference prowess vis-a-vis the American, means being undefeated carries a higher (if still low) chance of cracking the Top 4.

G5 Playoff Odds in Hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff:
Total% TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
43.56% Boise St (309/726) *848*
37.37% Air Force (380/871) *908*
22.5% BYU (2240/5401) *10*
8.9% Louisiana (1/3) *1*
6.84% FAU (0/3) *0*
5.45% Utah St (39/197) *120*
4.97% Wyoming (13/84) *88*
4.87% San Diego St (10/98) *79*
3.36% Fresno St (0/23) *46*
3.33% UCF (5/8) *30*
2.83% SMU (3/9) *33*
2.35% Cincinnati (14/23) *26*
1.75% Houston (24/47) *37*
1.43% Marshall (0/14) *2*
1.34% Memphis (4/8) *21*

Code:
Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)
#1 (2-0) 18.6 Alabama (W 52-24 vs. Texas A*M)+0
#2 (3-0) 36.9 Clemson (W 41-23 vs. Virginia)+0
#3 (0-0) 22.8 Ohio St ---BYE---+0
#4 (2-0) 11.2 Georgia (W 27-6 vs. Auburn)+0
#5 (2-0) 23.7 Notre Dame ---BYE---+2
#6 (0-0) 12.6 Penn State ---BYE----1
#7 (0-0) 10.6 Wisconsin ---BYE---+2
#8 (1-1) 9.3 LSU (W 41-7 vs. Vanderbilt)+3
#9 (2-0) 4.2 Florida (W 38-24 vs. South Carolina)+3
#10 (3-0) 9.7 Oklahoma St (W 47-7 vs. Kansas)+4
#11 (3-0) 18.9 Miami ---BYE----3
#12 (2-0) 14.7 Virginia Tech (W 38-31 vs. Duke)+8
#13 (0-0) 9.4 Michigan ---BYE----3
#14 (0-0) 6.2 Iowa ---BYE---+1
#15 (0-0) 9.6 Washington ---BYE---+2
#16 (1-1) 5.5 Auburn (L 6-27 vs. Georgia)-10
#17 (1-1) -2.2 Texas A*M (L 24-52 vs. Alabama)+1
#18 (2-1) 17.6 UCF (L 26-34 vs. Tulsa)-5
#19 (0-0) 7.3 Utah ---BYE---+3
#20 (0-0) 21.4 Boise St ---BYE---+5
#21 (0-0) 5.9 Oregon ---BYE---+2
#22 (1-0) 19.6 Air Force (W 40-7 vs. Navy)+22
#23 (2-0) 18.7 North Carolina (W 26-22 vs. Boston College)+13
#24 (2-1) 4.1 Iowa St (W 37-30 vs. Oklahoma)+18
#25 (1-1) -3.8 Miss St (L 14-21 vs. Arkansas)-9
#26 (2-1) 8.6 Texas (L 31-33 vs. TCU)-7
#27 (2-0) -6.1 Tennessee (W 35-12 vs. Missouri)+8
#28 (3-0) 29.5 BYU (W 45-14 vs. La Tech)+11
#29 (2-1) 4.9 Kansas St (W 31-21 vs. Texas Tech)+1
#30 (0-0) -1.1 Minnesota ---BYE----3
#31 (1-1) 2.9 TCU (W 33-31 vs. Texas)+14
#32 (1-1) 22.4 Memphis ---BYE---+0
#33 (3-0) 14.1 Cincinnati (W 28-7 vs. USF)+7
#34 (3-0) 16.5 Louisiana ---BYE---+4
#35 (1-2) 13.8 Oklahoma (L 30-37 vs. Iowa St)-14
#36 (0-0) 2 USC ---BYE----8
#37 (0-0) -5.4 Indiana ---BYE----6
#38 (1-1) 3.4 Baylor (L 21-27 vs. West Virginia)-14
#39 (2-1) 9.1 Boston College (L 22-26 vs. North Carolina)-13
#40 (0-0) 1.3 Wash St ---BYE---+3
#41 (1-0) 13.2 FAU (W 21-17 vs. Charlotte)+6
#42 (4-0) 11.5 SMU (W 31-24 vs. Texas St)+7
#43 (0-0) -6.1 Nebraska ---BYE----2
#44 (2-1) 19.2 App St ---BYE---+4
#45 (1-2) 8.6 Navy (L 7-40 vs. Air Force)-16
#46 (0-0) -6.1 Mich St ---BYE---+0
#47 (0-0) 9.8 Houston ---BYE---+3
#48 (1-1) -10.5 Ole Miss (W 42-41 vs. Kentucky)+7
#49 (2-1) 6.7 NC State (W 30-29 vs. Pittsburgh)+14
#50 (1-1) 16.9 Virginia (L 23-41 vs. Clemson)+2
#51 (3-1) 9.5 Pittsburgh (L 29-30 vs. NC State)-14
#52 (0-0) -2.2 Stanford ---BYE----1
#53 (0-0) -3.9 Arizona St ---BYE---+0
#54 (0-0) 8.8 Utah St ---BYE---+8
#55 (2-1) 1.9 West Virginia (W 27-21 vs. Baylor)+15
#56 (2-1) 10.9 Tulane ---BYE---+4
#57 (0-0) 6.4 Temple ---BYE---+0
#58 (1-1) 5.3 Tulsa (W 34-26 vs. UCF)+20
#59 (1-2) 5.7 Syracuse ---BYE----3
#60 (0-2) -6.7 Kentucky (L 41-42 vs. Ole Miss)-27
#61 (0-2) -8.3 Missouri (L 12-35 vs. Tennessee)-27
#62 (0-2) -8.4 South Carolina (L 24-38 vs. Florida)-8
#63 (0-0) -9.4 Northwestern ---BYE----4
#64 (1-1) -17.8 Arkansas (W 21-14 vs. Miss St)+13
#65 (1-2) 11.8 Wake Forest (W 66-14 vs. FCS)-4
#66 (0-0) 8.2 Wyoming ---BYE---+3
#67 (0-0) 9.1 San Diego St ---BYE---+5
#68 (1-1) 13.1 Troy ---BYE---+5
#69 (2-0) 11.7 Marshall ---BYE---+7
#70 (1-2) 5.2 Florida St (W 41-24 vs. FCS)-12
#71 (1-2) 7.8 Louisville ---BYE----7
#72 (0-0) -5.8 California ---BYE----4
#73 (0-0) -9.8 Purdue ---BYE----8
#74 (0-0) -12.7 Maryland ---BYE----8
#75 (0-0) -6.7 Colorado ---BYE----4
#76 (0-0) 5.6 Fresno St ---BYE---+4
#77 (1-2) 0.8 Georgia Tech ---BYE----10
#79 (3-1) 24.8 Army (W 55-23 vs. FCS)+3
#80 (2-1) 6.3 La Tech (L 14-45 vs. BYU)-5
#81 (1-2) 9.9 Arkansas St (L 23-52 vs. Coastal Carolina)-7
#82 (0-0) -10.2 UCLA ---BYE---+3
#83 (2-1) 5.5 Ga Southern (W 35-30 vs. La Monroe)+7
#84 (3-0) 4.7 Liberty (W 28-7 vs. FCS)+0
#85 (0-4) 4.2 Duke (L 31-38 vs. Virginia Tech)-6
#86 (3-1) 2 UAB (W 21-13 vs. UTSA)+9
#87 (0-0) -17.7 Illinois ---BYE---+0
#88 (0-0) 1.9 Hawaii ---BYE---+3
#89 (1-2) -4.4 Texas Tech (L 21-31 vs. Kansas St)-8
#90 (0-0) -13.8 Oregon St ---BYE----2
#91 (0-0) -11.9 Arizona ---BYE----2
#92 (0-0) -0.5 Colorado St ---BYE---+1
#93 (1-2) 12.1 WKU (W 20-17 vs. Middle Tennessee)+1
#94 (1-1) -1.7 Georgia St (W 49-29 vs. East Carolina)+4
#95 (1-2) -2.7 USF (L 7-28 vs. Cincinnati)-3
#96 (0-2) -17.9 Vanderbilt (L 7-41 vs. LSU)-10
#97 (1-3) 7.6 Southern Miss (W 41-31 vs. North Texas)+7
#98 (0-0) -4.5 Nevada ---BYE---+4
#99 (0-0) -26.4 Rutgers ---BYE----2
#100 (0-0) -5.4 San Jose St ---BYE---+6
#101 (0-2) 0.1 Charlotte (L 17-21 vs. FAU)-1
#102 (3-1) -4.2 UTSA (L 13-21 vs. UAB)-1
#103 (0-1) 9.2 FIU ---BYE---+4
#104 (1-2) -4.2 South Alabama ---BYE---+4
#105 (0-3) -17.4 Kansas (L 7-47 vs. Oklahoma St)-9
#106 (0-4) 1 Middle Tennessee (L 17-20 vs. WKU)-7
#107 (0-0) -6.3 UNLV ---BYE---+3
#108 (0-0) -6.2 New Mexico ---BYE---+3
#109 (1-2) -0.7 North Texas (L 31-41 vs. Southern Miss)-6
#110 (1-3) -3.2 Texas St (L 24-31 vs. SMU)-1
#111 (0-0) -7.8 Rice ---BYE---+2
#112 (0-2) -11.2 East Carolina (L 29-49 vs. Georgia St)-7
#113 (3-1) -16.3 UTEP (W 24-14 vs. FCS)+1
#114 (0-4) -5.1 La Monroe (L 30-35 vs. Ga Southern)-2
#115 (0-1) -26.6 Ohio ---BYE---+0
#116 (0-1) -26.6 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0
#117 (0-1) -26.6 Buffalo ---BYE---+0
#118 (0-1) -26.6 Toledo ---BYE---+0
#119 (0-1) -26.6 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0
#120 (0-1) -26.6 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0
#121 (0-1) -26.6 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0
#122 (0-1) -26.6 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0
#123 (0-1) -26.6 Ball St ---BYE---+0
#124 (0-1) -26.6 Kent St ---BYE---+0
#125 (0-1) -26.6 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0
#126 (0-1) -26.6 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0
#127 (0-1) -26.6 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0
#128 (0-1) -26.6 Akron ---BYE---+0
#129 (0-1) -26.6 UConn ---BYE---+0
#130 (0-1) -26.6 UMass ---BYE---+0

100% (10-0)+W Florida (1%)
100% (11-0)+W Clemson (26%)
100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (3%)
100% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%)
100% (8-0)+W Air Force (9%)
100% (8-0)+W Boise St (7%)
99% (10-0)+W Alabama (22%)
99% (8-0)+W Penn State (4%)
99% (10-0)+W Georgia (3%)
99% (8-0)+W Ohio St (24%)
99% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (4%)
99% (6-0)+W Washington (11%)
98% (6-0)+W Oregon (5%)
98% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (4%)
98% (6-0)+W USC (2%)
98% (6-0)+W Utah (11%)
96% (10-0)      BYU (18%)
96% (10-1)+W Clemson (31%)
96% (10-1)+W Virginia Tech (1%)
95% (10-1)+W Miami (4%)
92% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (9%)
91% (10-1)+W North Carolina (1%)
87% (11-0)+L  Clemson (6%)
86% (7-1)+W Boise St (19%)
83% (11-0)+W SMU (1%)
81% (11-0)+L  Miami (1%)
80% (8-0)+L  Boise St (2%)
77% (7-1)+W Utah St (2%)
73% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (4%)
72% (9-1)+W Alabama (28%)
67% (7-1)+W San Diego St (2%)
64% (7-1)+W Air Force (16%)
64% (9-1)+W Georgia (11%)
63% (7-1)+W Wyoming (2%)
61% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (16%)
60% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%)
60% (9-1)+W Iowa St (1%)
55% (10-1)      Miami (2%)
54% (8-0)+L  Air Force (4%)
54% (10-0)+L  Alabama (8%)
52% (7-1)      Boise St (2%)
49% (11-0)+W Louisiana (12%)
48% (7-1)+W Penn State (10%)
47% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (2%)
46% (9-2)+W Clemson (8%)
46% (9-1)+W LSU (1%)
43% (10-1)      Notre Dame (2%)
42% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (2%)
40% (7-1)+W Iowa (4%)
38% (9-2)+W Miami (3%)
36% (10-0)+L  Georgia (4%)
36% (8-0)+W FAU (13%)
33% (9-1)+W Florida (3%)
32% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (10%)
32% (9-0)+W Marshall (3%)
31% (7-1)+W Ohio St (19%)
28% (7-1)+W Fresno St (2%)
28% (9-1)      Alabama (1%)
28% (7-1)      Air Force (7%)
25% (8-0)+L  Penn State (3%)
23% (9-2)+W North Carolina (1%)
22% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (6%)
22% (10-1)+L  Clemson (8%)
20% (10-1)+L  Miami (10%)
18% (9-1)      Georgia (2%)
17% (5-1)+W Wash St (3%)
17% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (3%)
16% (7-1)      Michigan (6%)
14% (8-1)+W UCF (7%)
14% (10-0)+L  Florida (3%)
13% (9-1)+W Memphis (2%)
12% (9-1)      BYU (43%)
12% (7-1)      Penn State (11%)
12% (8-0)+L  Ohio St (8%)
11% (8-0)+L  Iowa (2%)
11% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (16%)
10% (9-1)+W Cincinnati (3%)
9% (8-0)+L  Wisconsin (7%)
8% (6-2)+W Boise St (12%)
7% (7-1)+L  Boise St (8%)
7% (5-1)+W Oregon (10%)
7% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (12%)
6% (10-1)+W SMU (6%)
6% (5-1)+W Washington (15%)
6% (10-1)+L  North Carolina (4%)
6% (5-1)+W USC (6%)
6% (8-0)+L  Fresno St (1%)
5% (9-2)      Clemson (8%)
5% (5-1)+W Stanford (1%)
5% (6-2)+W Utah St (3%)
5% (7-1)      Minnesota (1%)
5% (9-2)      Miami (19%)
4% (7-1)      Iowa (2%)
4% (7-1)      Ohio St (18%)
3% (7-1)      Wisconsin (3%)
3% (7-1)+L  Utah St (4%)
3% (5-1)      Wash St (3%)
2% (6-2)+W Wyoming (3%)
2% (8-2)+W Alabama (10%)
2% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (20%)
2% (8-2)+W Iowa St (5%)
2% (11-0)+L  SMU (1%)
2% (5-1)+W Utah (14%)
2% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%)
2% (6-2)+W Air Force (6%)
2% (6-0)+L  Oregon (4%)
1% (7-2)+W Houston (3%)
1% (6-2)      Boise St (14%)
1% (6-0)+L  USC (3%)
1% (7-2)      Houston (1%)
1% (6-0)+L  Washington (6%)
1% (9-2)+L  Miami (10%)
1% (7-1)+L  Air Force (8%)
1% (9-2)      Notre Dame (22%)
1% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (8%)
1% (9-1)      Florida (5%)
1% (8-2)+W Georgia (7%)
0% (7-2)+W TCU (3%)
0% (10-1)+W App St (5%)
0% (6-2)+W San Diego St (4%)
0% (9-2)      North Carolina (15%)
0% (10-1)      Army (2%)
0% (9-1)+L  Georgia (21%)
0% (9-1)+L  Alabama (10%)
0% (5-1)      Oregon (12%)
0% (7-1)+L  San Diego St (5%)
0% (5-1)+W Arizona St (1%)
0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (8%)
0% (7-1)+L  Wyoming (4%)
0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (24%)
0% (11-0)+L  Louisiana (6%)
0% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (6%)
0% (8-2)+W Cincinnati (7%)
0% (5-1)      Utah (10%)
0% (5-1)      USC (11%)
0% (5-1)      Washington (15%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (31%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (27%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (18%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (36%)
98% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (34%)
98% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (4%)
95% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (48%)
87% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (1%)
72% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (46%)
69% 1-loss at large ACC (22%)
66% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)
60% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (19%)
49% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (12%)
47% 1-loss at large Big 12 (2%)
40% 1-loss at large MWC (21%)
38% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (48%)
37% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (19%)
35% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (16%)
29% 1-loss at large SEC (26%)
13% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (20%)
10% 1-loss at large Big Ten (66%)
8% 2-loss at large ACC (129%)
6% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (54%)
4% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (32%)
2% 1-loss at large AAC (2%)
1% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (39%)
1% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (23%)
0% 2-loss at large MWC (134%)
0% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (91%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (31%)
0% 1-loss at large Sun Belt (7%)
0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (19%)
0% 2-loss at large SEC (119%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (49%)
0% 3-loss at large ACC (175%)
0% 2-loss at large AAC (50%)

Playoff %
1) 69.93% Clemson
2) 48.5% Alabama
3) 32.72% Ohio St
4) 30.24% Boise St
5) 24.74% Air Force
6) 23.81% BYU
7) 19.86% Notre Dame
8) 16.54% Oklahoma St
9) 13.7% Georgia
10) 12.8% Washington
11) 12.22% Penn State
12) 12.04% Miami
13) 11.75% Utah
14) 8.41% Wisconsin
15) 6.82% Oregon
16) 6.38% Virginia Tech
17) 6.18% Louisiana
18) 4.85% FAU
19) 4.52% Michigan
20) 3.22% USC
21) 2.83% Florida
22) 2.71% Iowa
23) 2.66% Utah St
24) 2.41% Wyoming
25) 2.38% North Carolina
26) 1.91% San Diego St
27) 1.61% Wash St
28) 1.38% SMU
29) 1.34% Fresno St
30) 1.05% UCF
31) 1.03% Cincinnati
32) 0.99% Marshall
33) 0.81% Iowa St
34) 0.72% Arizona St
35) 0.72% Houston
36) 0.69% TCU
37) 0.5% LSU
38) 0.47% Auburn
39) 0.36% Texas
40) 0.32% Memphis
41) 0.31% Stanford
42) 0.29% Oregon St
43) 0.27% Minnesota
44) 0.23% Kansas St
45) 0.22% Baylor
46) 0.22% Arizona
47) 0.17% Hawaii
48) 0.16% Nebraska
49) 0.16% California
50) 0.15% Indiana
51) 0.15% UCLA
52) 0.13% Arkansas
53) 0.13% Mich St
54) 0.12% Tennessee
55) 0.12% Colorado
56) 0.11% Colorado St
57) 0.08% Boston College
58) 0.08% Illinois
59) 0.08% Temple
60) 0.06% Texas A*M
61) 0.06% NC State
62) 0.06% Tulsa
63) 0.05% Maryland
64) 0.05% West Virginia
65) 0.05% Nevada
66) 0.05% San Jose St
67) 0.05% App St
68) 0.04% Ole Miss
69) 0.04% Miss St
70) 0.03% Virginia
71) 0.03% Rutgers
72) 0.03% New Mexico
73) 0.03% UNLV
74) 0.02% Pittsburgh
75) 0.02% Tulane
76) 0.02% Army
77) 0.01% Northwestern

Top G5 Champ %
1) 31.99% Boise St
2) 24.49% Air Force
3) 8.88% Louisiana
4) 6.84% FAU
5) 3.98% San Diego St
6) 3.96% Wyoming
7) 3.86% Utah St
8) 2.98% UCF
9) 2.9% Fresno St
10) 2.47% SMU
11) 1.95% Cincinnati
12) 1.41% Marshall
13) 1.14% Houston
14) 1.09% Memphis
15) 0.43% App St
16) 0.38% Hawaii
17) 0.22% Tulsa
18) 0.21% Colorado St
19) 0.19% Navy
20) 0.16% Temple
21) 0.15% Troy
22) 0.08% Tulane
23) 0.07% Nevada
24) 0.06% San Jose St
25) 0.05% UNLV
26) 0.03% New Mexico
27) 0.03% La Tech

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
90.62% Clemson (562/687) *1816*
70.66% Alabama (260/324) *593*
57.76% Ohio St (852/1167) *354*
50.82% Oklahoma St (31/59) *381*
43.56% Boise St (309/726) *848*
37.37% Air Force (380/871) *908*
36.22% Notre Dame (864/1340) *1084*
31.46% Washington (215/415) *105*
30.73% Georgia (241/372) *442*
29.37% Utah (43/138) *59*
28.29% Miami (920/1624) *1029*
25.61% Penn State (705/1135) *181*
24.96% Wisconsin (181/269) *247*
22.5% BYU (2240/5401) *10*
20.49% Iowa St (0/0) *7*
20.05% Oregon (133/352) *61*
15.39% Virginia Tech (556/1152) *521*
11.81% USC (58/260) *51*
11.4% Kansas St (0/0) *4*
11.07% Michigan (454/767) *97*
10.57% Florida (183/390) *123*
9.92% Iowa (77/183) *91*
8.9% Louisiana (1/3) *1*
8.03% Texas (2/6) *10*
7.69% North Carolina (252/621) *268*
6.84% FAU (0/3) *0*
6.77% TCU (8/23) *28*
5.93% Wash St (22/169) *22*
5.45% Utah St (39/197) *120*
4.97% Wyoming (13/84) *88*
4.87% San Diego St (10/98) *79*
3.85% Arizona St (10/66) *19*
3.42% LSU (34/59) *11*
3.36% Fresno St (0/23) *46*
3.33% UCF (5/8) *30*
3.08% Auburn (78/180) *13*
2.92% Baylor (1/3) *3*
2.83% SMU (3/9) *33*
2.58% Oklahoma (3/4) *6*
2.45% Stanford (19/96) *7*
2.35% Cincinnati (14/23) *26*
1.75% Houston (24/47) *37*
1.68% Minnesota (25/83) *15*
1.43% Marshall (0/14) *2*
1.39% West Virginia (0/4) *0*
1.34% Memphis (4/8) *21*
1.03% Colorado (6/30) *4*
0.95% California (7/37) *4*
0.67% Nebraska (8/25) *2*
0.62% UCLA (0/8) *6*
0.59% Oregon St (2/10) *3*
0.5% Tennessee (11/33) *4*
0.45% Arizona (0/1) *0*
0.45% Hawaii (0/9) *7*
0.43% App St (0/0) *0*
0.41% NC State (13/58) *13*
0.41% Indiana (12/30) *3*
0.37% Boston College (12/60) *12*
0.36% Illinois (2/2) *5*
0.35% Texas A*M (21/66) *2*
0.32% Arkansas (10/12) *0*
0.31% Mich St (10/21) *0*
0.28% Miss St (1/4) *0*
0.26% Colorado St (2/8) *3*
0.24% Pittsburgh (13/20) *6*
0.24% Tulsa (0/0) *2*
0.21% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.2% Virginia (14/34) *5*
0.19% Northwestern (1/2) *3*
0.19% Navy (0/0) *0*
0.18% Ole Miss (2/6) *0*
0.18% Purdue (0/2) *2*
0.16% Temple (0/1) *0*
0.15% Rutgers (4/7) *0*
0.15% Troy (0/0) *0*
0.14% Maryland (9/12) *1*
0.11% Tulane (0/5) *3*
0.1% Wake Forest (4/7) *6*
0.1% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*
0.09% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.09% Nevada (0/2) *2*
0.08% San Jose St (0/2) *2*
0.07% UNLV (0/1) *2*
0.06% Kentucky (0/0) *0*
0.05% Louisville (1/3) *0*
0.03% Missouri (0/0) *0*
0.03% New Mexico (0/0) *0*
0.03% La Tech (0/0) *0*
0.03% Army (2/11) *1*
0.02% South Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.02% Syracuse (2/7) *0*
0.01% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*
10-04-2020 07:24 AM
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Crayton Online
2nd String
*

Posts: 372
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 39
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #11
RE: The Year That Is (Week 5: OK State stands alone)
This week's sim-through (#115). Neither Clemson nor Notre Dame make the ACCCG. OK State is the Big 12's lone ranked team. And BYU, SDSU, and Air Force all enter the last week of the regular season with 1 loss and in the Top 14. Finally, we crown a NEW champion!!!

December 5th Standings:
ACC
#1 Miami (10-1, 9-1; 380-196) lost to Virginia Tech 13-30
#4 Virginia Tech (9-1, 8-1; 303-200) lost to Clemson 14-27
#6 Clemson (6-2, 8-2; 427-214) lost to Miami 35-39 and Georgia Tech 27-28
#10 Notre Dame (8-2, 7-2; 380-205) lost to Clemson 28-31 and North Carolina 24-27

Pac-12
#2 Washington (5-0; 196-104)
#11 Wash St (4-1; 157-97) lost to Washington 31-38
#19 Oregon (4-1; 149-131) lost to Wash St 14-42

Big Ten
#3 Michigan (7-0; 270-131)
#5 Ohio State (7-0; 265-135)
#12 Wisconsin (6-1; 238-130) lost to Michigan 17-54
#25 Iowa (5-2; 189-139) lost to Minnesota 20-27 and Penn State 10-49

Big 12
#7 OK State (9-1, 8-1; 291-170) lost to Oklahoma 21-24
#32 Iowa State (6-4, 6-3; 270-221) lost to OK State 13-15, Texas 12-15, and West Virginia 28-31

SEC
#8 Alabama (9-1; 391-203) lost to Georgia 28-31
#17 Georgia (8-2; 371-243) lost to Kentucky 35-37 and Florida 21-37
#21 Florida (8-2; 338-229) lost to LSU 24-40 and Kentucky 24-30
*#84 Kentucky's lone other victory was 41-28 vs. Vanderbilt

non-P5
#9 Air Force (7-1, 5-1; 290-158) lost to Boise St 27-32
#13 San Diego St (6-1; 227-117) lost to Nevada 16-18
#14 BYU (8-1; 356-167) lost to WKU 31-32
#15 Louisiana (10-1, 7-1) lost to App St 21-28
#16 App St (10-1, 8-0)
#18 Memphis (8-2, 6-2; 379-217) lost to Tulane 20-32
#20 UCF (7-2, 6-2; 249-158) lost to Memphis 24-27
#22 SMU (9-2, 6-2; 379-247) lost to Tulane 17-36 and Cincy 24-38
#35 La Tech (9-2, 8-0; 351-267) lost to La Monroe 31-32

December 12th results:
Notre Dame squeaks past Wake Forest, 31-28, keeping their hopes alive
Virginia Tech, however, clinches a berth in the ACCCG by beating Virginia 53-21
Ohio State defeats Michigan 27-10, winning the Big Ten East
Wisconsin defeats Iowa 30-17, winning the Big Ten West
Oregon defeats Washington 24-21, setting up a potential 3-way tie atop the Pac-12 North
Wash St, however, drops their game to California 13-16, giving the Ducks the North
BYU beats San Diego St in an exciting 39-35 showdown

December 19th matchups // results
#1 Ohio State (8-0) vs. #10 Wisconsin (7-1) // 24-21
#2 Virginia Tech (10-1) vs. #3 Miami (10-1) // 13-29
#4 OK State (10-1) vs. #30 Iowa St (6-4) // 23-20
#5 Alabama (9-1) vs. #20 Florida (8-2) // 48-24
#7 Oregon (5-1) vs. #25 Utah (5-1) // 20-21
#8 Air Force (7-1) vs. #19 San Diego St (6-2) // 20-23
#14 Louisiana (10-1) vs. #15 App St (10-1) // 37-17
notable others: #6 Michigan (7-1), #9 Clemson (9-2), #11 Washington (5-1), #12 BYU (9-1)

Playoffs // results
#1 Ohio State vs. #4 Alabama // 24-46
#2 Miami vs. #3 OK State // 33-21
#1 Miami vs. #2 Alabama // 20-17
10-04-2020 11:02 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #12
RE: The Year That Is (Week 5: OK State stands alone)
(10-04-2020 07:24 AM)Crayton Wrote:  G5 Playoff Odds in Hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff:

Why are you continuing to model a G5 in an 8-team playoff instead of the NY6 spot when the CFP has said that the playoff is not expanding?
10-04-2020 11:40 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #13
RE: The Year That Is (Week 5: OK State stands alone)
(10-04-2020 07:24 AM)Crayton Wrote:  As more schedules are released, the playoff outcomes continue to morph generously. This past weekend both the Mountain West and Pac-12 released their 8- and 7-game schedules, respectively. The computer thinks very poorly of a 6-1 record, so the Mountain West is the larger benefactor here, replacing the American and joining all 5 Power conferences as likely to place a team in the playoff if their champion is undefeated.

UCF, Memphis, Auburn, Texas, Baylor, and Mississippi State all fell yesterday, but the addition of two conferences meant that few teams in conferences-already-active made advancements in the playoff standings.

The two big gainers were OK State and Louisiana, +4% overall for each. OK State benefitted from both Oklahoma and Texas losing and seeing their chances of acing their schedule improve. Louisiana's game vs. App State was postponed, but the Sun Belt's out of conference prowess vis-a-vis the American, means being undefeated carries a higher (if still low) chance of cracking the Top 4.

G5 Playoff Odds in Hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff:
Total% TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
43.56% Boise St (309/726) *848*
37.37% Air Force (380/871) *908*
22.5% BYU (2240/5401) *10*
8.9% Louisiana (1/3) *1*
6.84% FAU (0/3) *0*
5.45% Utah St (39/197) *120*
4.97% Wyoming (13/84) *88*
4.87% San Diego St (10/98) *79*
3.36% Fresno St (0/23) *46*
3.33% UCF (5/8) *30*
2.83% SMU (3/9) *33*
2.35% Cincinnati (14/23) *26*
1.75% Houston (24/47) *37*
1.43% Marshall (0/14) *2*
1.34% Memphis (4/8) *21*

Code:
Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)
#1 (2-0) 18.6 Alabama (W 52-24 vs. Texas A*M)+0
#2 (3-0) 36.9 Clemson (W 41-23 vs. Virginia)+0
#3 (0-0) 22.8 Ohio St ---BYE---+0
#4 (2-0) 11.2 Georgia (W 27-6 vs. Auburn)+0
#5 (2-0) 23.7 Notre Dame ---BYE---+2
#6 (0-0) 12.6 Penn State ---BYE----1
#7 (0-0) 10.6 Wisconsin ---BYE---+2
#8 (1-1) 9.3 LSU (W 41-7 vs. Vanderbilt)+3
#9 (2-0) 4.2 Florida (W 38-24 vs. South Carolina)+3
#10 (3-0) 9.7 Oklahoma St (W 47-7 vs. Kansas)+4
#11 (3-0) 18.9 Miami ---BYE----3
#12 (2-0) 14.7 Virginia Tech (W 38-31 vs. Duke)+8
#13 (0-0) 9.4 Michigan ---BYE----3
#14 (0-0) 6.2 Iowa ---BYE---+1
#15 (0-0) 9.6 Washington ---BYE---+2
#16 (1-1) 5.5 Auburn (L 6-27 vs. Georgia)-10
#17 (1-1) -2.2 Texas A*M (L 24-52 vs. Alabama)+1
#18 (2-1) 17.6 UCF (L 26-34 vs. Tulsa)-5
#19 (0-0) 7.3 Utah ---BYE---+3
#20 (0-0) 21.4 Boise St ---BYE---+5
#21 (0-0) 5.9 Oregon ---BYE---+2
#22 (1-0) 19.6 Air Force (W 40-7 vs. Navy)+22
#23 (2-0) 18.7 North Carolina (W 26-22 vs. Boston College)+13
#24 (2-1) 4.1 Iowa St (W 37-30 vs. Oklahoma)+18
#25 (1-1) -3.8 Miss St (L 14-21 vs. Arkansas)-9
#26 (2-1) 8.6 Texas (L 31-33 vs. TCU)-7
#27 (2-0) -6.1 Tennessee (W 35-12 vs. Missouri)+8
#28 (3-0) 29.5 BYU (W 45-14 vs. La Tech)+11
#29 (2-1) 4.9 Kansas St (W 31-21 vs. Texas Tech)+1
#30 (0-0) -1.1 Minnesota ---BYE----3
#31 (1-1) 2.9 TCU (W 33-31 vs. Texas)+14
#32 (1-1) 22.4 Memphis ---BYE---+0
#33 (3-0) 14.1 Cincinnati (W 28-7 vs. USF)+7
#34 (3-0) 16.5 Louisiana ---BYE---+4
#35 (1-2) 13.8 Oklahoma (L 30-37 vs. Iowa St)-14
#36 (0-0) 2 USC ---BYE----8
#37 (0-0) -5.4 Indiana ---BYE----6
#38 (1-1) 3.4 Baylor (L 21-27 vs. West Virginia)-14
#39 (2-1) 9.1 Boston College (L 22-26 vs. North Carolina)-13
#40 (0-0) 1.3 Wash St ---BYE---+3
#41 (1-0) 13.2 FAU (W 21-17 vs. Charlotte)+6
#42 (4-0) 11.5 SMU (W 31-24 vs. Texas St)+7
#43 (0-0) -6.1 Nebraska ---BYE----2
#44 (2-1) 19.2 App St ---BYE---+4
#45 (1-2) 8.6 Navy (L 7-40 vs. Air Force)-16
#46 (0-0) -6.1 Mich St ---BYE---+0
#47 (0-0) 9.8 Houston ---BYE---+3
#48 (1-1) -10.5 Ole Miss (W 42-41 vs. Kentucky)+7
#49 (2-1) 6.7 NC State (W 30-29 vs. Pittsburgh)+14
#50 (1-1) 16.9 Virginia (L 23-41 vs. Clemson)+2
#51 (3-1) 9.5 Pittsburgh (L 29-30 vs. NC State)-14
#52 (0-0) -2.2 Stanford ---BYE----1
#53 (0-0) -3.9 Arizona St ---BYE---+0
#54 (0-0) 8.8 Utah St ---BYE---+8
#55 (2-1) 1.9 West Virginia (W 27-21 vs. Baylor)+15
#56 (2-1) 10.9 Tulane ---BYE---+4
#57 (0-0) 6.4 Temple ---BYE---+0
#58 (1-1) 5.3 Tulsa (W 34-26 vs. UCF)+20
#59 (1-2) 5.7 Syracuse ---BYE----3
#60 (0-2) -6.7 Kentucky (L 41-42 vs. Ole Miss)-27
#61 (0-2) -8.3 Missouri (L 12-35 vs. Tennessee)-27
#62 (0-2) -8.4 South Carolina (L 24-38 vs. Florida)-8
#63 (0-0) -9.4 Northwestern ---BYE----4
#64 (1-1) -17.8 Arkansas (W 21-14 vs. Miss St)+13
#65 (1-2) 11.8 Wake Forest (W 66-14 vs. FCS)-4
#66 (0-0) 8.2 Wyoming ---BYE---+3
#67 (0-0) 9.1 San Diego St ---BYE---+5
#68 (1-1) 13.1 Troy ---BYE---+5
#69 (2-0) 11.7 Marshall ---BYE---+7
#70 (1-2) 5.2 Florida St (W 41-24 vs. FCS)-12
#71 (1-2) 7.8 Louisville ---BYE----7
#72 (0-0) -5.8 California ---BYE----4
#73 (0-0) -9.8 Purdue ---BYE----8
#74 (0-0) -12.7 Maryland ---BYE----8
#75 (0-0) -6.7 Colorado ---BYE----4
#76 (0-0) 5.6 Fresno St ---BYE---+4
#77 (1-2) 0.8 Georgia Tech ---BYE----10
#79 (3-1) 24.8 Army (W 55-23 vs. FCS)+3
#80 (2-1) 6.3 La Tech (L 14-45 vs. BYU)-5
#81 (1-2) 9.9 Arkansas St (L 23-52 vs. Coastal Carolina)-7
#82 (0-0) -10.2 UCLA ---BYE---+3
#83 (2-1) 5.5 Ga Southern (W 35-30 vs. La Monroe)+7
#84 (3-0) 4.7 Liberty (W 28-7 vs. FCS)+0
#85 (0-4) 4.2 Duke (L 31-38 vs. Virginia Tech)-6
#86 (3-1) 2 UAB (W 21-13 vs. UTSA)+9
#87 (0-0) -17.7 Illinois ---BYE---+0
#88 (0-0) 1.9 Hawaii ---BYE---+3
#89 (1-2) -4.4 Texas Tech (L 21-31 vs. Kansas St)-8
#90 (0-0) -13.8 Oregon St ---BYE----2
#91 (0-0) -11.9 Arizona ---BYE----2
#92 (0-0) -0.5 Colorado St ---BYE---+1
#93 (1-2) 12.1 WKU (W 20-17 vs. Middle Tennessee)+1
#94 (1-1) -1.7 Georgia St (W 49-29 vs. East Carolina)+4
#95 (1-2) -2.7 USF (L 7-28 vs. Cincinnati)-3
#96 (0-2) -17.9 Vanderbilt (L 7-41 vs. LSU)-10
#97 (1-3) 7.6 Southern Miss (W 41-31 vs. North Texas)+7
#98 (0-0) -4.5 Nevada ---BYE---+4
#99 (0-0) -26.4 Rutgers ---BYE----2
#100 (0-0) -5.4 San Jose St ---BYE---+6
#101 (0-2) 0.1 Charlotte (L 17-21 vs. FAU)-1
#102 (3-1) -4.2 UTSA (L 13-21 vs. UAB)-1
#103 (0-1) 9.2 FIU ---BYE---+4
#104 (1-2) -4.2 South Alabama ---BYE---+4
#105 (0-3) -17.4 Kansas (L 7-47 vs. Oklahoma St)-9
#106 (0-4) 1 Middle Tennessee (L 17-20 vs. WKU)-7
#107 (0-0) -6.3 UNLV ---BYE---+3
#108 (0-0) -6.2 New Mexico ---BYE---+3
#109 (1-2) -0.7 North Texas (L 31-41 vs. Southern Miss)-6
#110 (1-3) -3.2 Texas St (L 24-31 vs. SMU)-1
#111 (0-0) -7.8 Rice ---BYE---+2
#112 (0-2) -11.2 East Carolina (L 29-49 vs. Georgia St)-7
#113 (3-1) -16.3 UTEP (W 24-14 vs. FCS)+1
#114 (0-4) -5.1 La Monroe (L 30-35 vs. Ga Southern)-2
#115 (0-1) -26.6 Ohio ---BYE---+0
#116 (0-1) -26.6 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0
#117 (0-1) -26.6 Buffalo ---BYE---+0
#118 (0-1) -26.6 Toledo ---BYE---+0
#119 (0-1) -26.6 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0
#120 (0-1) -26.6 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0
#121 (0-1) -26.6 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0
#122 (0-1) -26.6 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0
#123 (0-1) -26.6 Ball St ---BYE---+0
#124 (0-1) -26.6 Kent St ---BYE---+0
#125 (0-1) -26.6 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0
#126 (0-1) -26.6 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0
#127 (0-1) -26.6 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0
#128 (0-1) -26.6 Akron ---BYE---+0
#129 (0-1) -26.6 UConn ---BYE---+0
#130 (0-1) -26.6 UMass ---BYE---+0

100% (10-0)+W Florida (1%)
100% (11-0)+W Clemson (26%)
100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (3%)
100% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%)
100% (8-0)+W Air Force (9%)
100% (8-0)+W Boise St (7%)
99% (10-0)+W Alabama (22%)
99% (8-0)+W Penn State (4%)
99% (10-0)+W Georgia (3%)
99% (8-0)+W Ohio St (24%)
99% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (4%)
99% (6-0)+W Washington (11%)
98% (6-0)+W Oregon (5%)
98% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (4%)
98% (6-0)+W USC (2%)
98% (6-0)+W Utah (11%)
96% (10-0)      BYU (18%)
96% (10-1)+W Clemson (31%)
96% (10-1)+W Virginia Tech (1%)
95% (10-1)+W Miami (4%)
92% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (9%)
91% (10-1)+W North Carolina (1%)
87% (11-0)+L  Clemson (6%)
86% (7-1)+W Boise St (19%)
83% (11-0)+W SMU (1%)
81% (11-0)+L  Miami (1%)
80% (8-0)+L  Boise St (2%)
77% (7-1)+W Utah St (2%)
73% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (4%)
72% (9-1)+W Alabama (28%)
67% (7-1)+W San Diego St (2%)
64% (7-1)+W Air Force (16%)
64% (9-1)+W Georgia (11%)
63% (7-1)+W Wyoming (2%)
61% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (16%)
60% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%)
60% (9-1)+W Iowa St (1%)
55% (10-1)      Miami (2%)
54% (8-0)+L  Air Force (4%)
54% (10-0)+L  Alabama (8%)
52% (7-1)      Boise St (2%)
49% (11-0)+W Louisiana (12%)
48% (7-1)+W Penn State (10%)
47% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (2%)
46% (9-2)+W Clemson (8%)
46% (9-1)+W LSU (1%)
43% (10-1)      Notre Dame (2%)
42% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (2%)
40% (7-1)+W Iowa (4%)
38% (9-2)+W Miami (3%)
36% (10-0)+L  Georgia (4%)
36% (8-0)+W FAU (13%)
33% (9-1)+W Florida (3%)
32% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (10%)
32% (9-0)+W Marshall (3%)
31% (7-1)+W Ohio St (19%)
28% (7-1)+W Fresno St (2%)
28% (9-1)      Alabama (1%)
28% (7-1)      Air Force (7%)
25% (8-0)+L  Penn State (3%)
23% (9-2)+W North Carolina (1%)
22% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (6%)
22% (10-1)+L  Clemson (8%)
20% (10-1)+L  Miami (10%)
18% (9-1)      Georgia (2%)
17% (5-1)+W Wash St (3%)
17% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (3%)
16% (7-1)      Michigan (6%)
14% (8-1)+W UCF (7%)
14% (10-0)+L  Florida (3%)
13% (9-1)+W Memphis (2%)
12% (9-1)      BYU (43%)
12% (7-1)      Penn State (11%)
12% (8-0)+L  Ohio St (8%)
11% (8-0)+L  Iowa (2%)
11% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (16%)
10% (9-1)+W Cincinnati (3%)
9% (8-0)+L  Wisconsin (7%)
8% (6-2)+W Boise St (12%)
7% (7-1)+L  Boise St (8%)
7% (5-1)+W Oregon (10%)
7% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (12%)
6% (10-1)+W SMU (6%)
6% (5-1)+W Washington (15%)
6% (10-1)+L  North Carolina (4%)
6% (5-1)+W USC (6%)
6% (8-0)+L  Fresno St (1%)
5% (9-2)      Clemson (8%)
5% (5-1)+W Stanford (1%)
5% (6-2)+W Utah St (3%)
5% (7-1)      Minnesota (1%)
5% (9-2)      Miami (19%)
4% (7-1)      Iowa (2%)
4% (7-1)      Ohio St (18%)
3% (7-1)      Wisconsin (3%)
3% (7-1)+L  Utah St (4%)
3% (5-1)      Wash St (3%)
2% (6-2)+W Wyoming (3%)
2% (8-2)+W Alabama (10%)
2% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (20%)
2% (8-2)+W Iowa St (5%)
2% (11-0)+L  SMU (1%)
2% (5-1)+W Utah (14%)
2% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%)
2% (6-2)+W Air Force (6%)
2% (6-0)+L  Oregon (4%)
1% (7-2)+W Houston (3%)
1% (6-2)      Boise St (14%)
1% (6-0)+L  USC (3%)
1% (7-2)      Houston (1%)
1% (6-0)+L  Washington (6%)
1% (9-2)+L  Miami (10%)
1% (7-1)+L  Air Force (8%)
1% (9-2)      Notre Dame (22%)
1% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (8%)
1% (9-1)      Florida (5%)
1% (8-2)+W Georgia (7%)
0% (7-2)+W TCU (3%)
0% (10-1)+W App St (5%)
0% (6-2)+W San Diego St (4%)
0% (9-2)      North Carolina (15%)
0% (10-1)      Army (2%)
0% (9-1)+L  Georgia (21%)
0% (9-1)+L  Alabama (10%)
0% (5-1)      Oregon (12%)
0% (7-1)+L  San Diego St (5%)
0% (5-1)+W Arizona St (1%)
0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (8%)
0% (7-1)+L  Wyoming (4%)
0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (24%)
0% (11-0)+L  Louisiana (6%)
0% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (6%)
0% (8-2)+W Cincinnati (7%)
0% (5-1)      Utah (10%)
0% (5-1)      USC (11%)
0% (5-1)      Washington (15%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (31%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (27%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (18%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (36%)
98% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (34%)
98% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (4%)
95% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (48%)
87% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (1%)
72% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (46%)
69% 1-loss at large ACC (22%)
66% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)
60% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (19%)
49% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (12%)
47% 1-loss at large Big 12 (2%)
40% 1-loss at large MWC (21%)
38% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (48%)
37% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (19%)
35% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (16%)
29% 1-loss at large SEC (26%)
13% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (20%)
10% 1-loss at large Big Ten (66%)
8% 2-loss at large ACC (129%)
6% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (54%)
4% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (32%)
2% 1-loss at large AAC (2%)
1% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (39%)
1% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (23%)
0% 2-loss at large MWC (134%)
0% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (91%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (31%)
0% 1-loss at large Sun Belt (7%)
0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (19%)
0% 2-loss at large SEC (119%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (49%)
0% 3-loss at large ACC (175%)
0% 2-loss at large AAC (50%)

Playoff %
1) 69.93% Clemson
2) 48.5% Alabama
3) 32.72% Ohio St
4) 30.24% Boise St
5) 24.74% Air Force
6) 23.81% BYU
7) 19.86% Notre Dame
8) 16.54% Oklahoma St
9) 13.7% Georgia
10) 12.8% Washington
11) 12.22% Penn State
12) 12.04% Miami
13) 11.75% Utah
14) 8.41% Wisconsin
15) 6.82% Oregon
16) 6.38% Virginia Tech
17) 6.18% Louisiana
18) 4.85% FAU
19) 4.52% Michigan
20) 3.22% USC
21) 2.83% Florida
22) 2.71% Iowa
23) 2.66% Utah St
24) 2.41% Wyoming
25) 2.38% North Carolina
26) 1.91% San Diego St
27) 1.61% Wash St
28) 1.38% SMU
29) 1.34% Fresno St
30) 1.05% UCF
31) 1.03% Cincinnati
32) 0.99% Marshall
33) 0.81% Iowa St
34) 0.72% Arizona St
35) 0.72% Houston
36) 0.69% TCU
37) 0.5% LSU
38) 0.47% Auburn
39) 0.36% Texas
40) 0.32% Memphis
41) 0.31% Stanford
42) 0.29% Oregon St
43) 0.27% Minnesota
44) 0.23% Kansas St
45) 0.22% Baylor
46) 0.22% Arizona
47) 0.17% Hawaii
48) 0.16% Nebraska
49) 0.16% California
50) 0.15% Indiana
51) 0.15% UCLA
52) 0.13% Arkansas
53) 0.13% Mich St
54) 0.12% Tennessee
55) 0.12% Colorado
56) 0.11% Colorado St
57) 0.08% Boston College
58) 0.08% Illinois
59) 0.08% Temple
60) 0.06% Texas A*M
61) 0.06% NC State
62) 0.06% Tulsa
63) 0.05% Maryland
64) 0.05% West Virginia
65) 0.05% Nevada
66) 0.05% San Jose St
67) 0.05% App St
68) 0.04% Ole Miss
69) 0.04% Miss St
70) 0.03% Virginia
71) 0.03% Rutgers
72) 0.03% New Mexico
73) 0.03% UNLV
74) 0.02% Pittsburgh
75) 0.02% Tulane
76) 0.02% Army
77) 0.01% Northwestern

Top G5 Champ %
1) 31.99% Boise St
2) 24.49% Air Force
3) 8.88% Louisiana
4) 6.84% FAU
5) 3.98% San Diego St
6) 3.96% Wyoming
7) 3.86% Utah St
8) 2.98% UCF
9) 2.9% Fresno St
10) 2.47% SMU
11) 1.95% Cincinnati
12) 1.41% Marshall
13) 1.14% Houston
14) 1.09% Memphis
15) 0.43% App St
16) 0.38% Hawaii
17) 0.22% Tulsa
18) 0.21% Colorado St
19) 0.19% Navy
20) 0.16% Temple
21) 0.15% Troy
22) 0.08% Tulane
23) 0.07% Nevada
24) 0.06% San Jose St
25) 0.05% UNLV
26) 0.03% New Mexico
27) 0.03% La Tech

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
90.62% Clemson (562/687) *1816*
70.66% Alabama (260/324) *593*
57.76% Ohio St (852/1167) *354*
50.82% Oklahoma St (31/59) *381*
43.56% Boise St (309/726) *848*
37.37% Air Force (380/871) *908*
36.22% Notre Dame (864/1340) *1084*
31.46% Washington (215/415) *105*
30.73% Georgia (241/372) *442*
29.37% Utah (43/138) *59*
28.29% Miami (920/1624) *1029*
25.61% Penn State (705/1135) *181*
24.96% Wisconsin (181/269) *247*
22.5% BYU (2240/5401) *10*
20.49% Iowa St (0/0) *7*
20.05% Oregon (133/352) *61*
15.39% Virginia Tech (556/1152) *521*
11.81% USC (58/260) *51*
11.4% Kansas St (0/0) *4*
11.07% Michigan (454/767) *97*
10.57% Florida (183/390) *123*
9.92% Iowa (77/183) *91*
8.9% Louisiana (1/3) *1*
8.03% Texas (2/6) *10*
7.69% North Carolina (252/621) *268*
6.84% FAU (0/3) *0*
6.77% TCU (8/23) *28*
5.93% Wash St (22/169) *22*
5.45% Utah St (39/197) *120*
4.97% Wyoming (13/84) *88*
4.87% San Diego St (10/98) *79*
3.85% Arizona St (10/66) *19*
3.42% LSU (34/59) *11*
3.36% Fresno St (0/23) *46*
3.33% UCF (5/8) *30*
3.08% Auburn (78/180) *13*
2.92% Baylor (1/3) *3*
2.83% SMU (3/9) *33*
2.58% Oklahoma (3/4) *6*
2.45% Stanford (19/96) *7*
2.35% Cincinnati (14/23) *26*
1.75% Houston (24/47) *37*
1.68% Minnesota (25/83) *15*
1.43% Marshall (0/14) *2*
1.39% West Virginia (0/4) *0*
1.34% Memphis (4/8) *21*
1.03% Colorado (6/30) *4*
0.95% California (7/37) *4*
0.67% Nebraska (8/25) *2*
0.62% UCLA (0/8) *6*
0.59% Oregon St (2/10) *3*
0.5% Tennessee (11/33) *4*
0.45% Arizona (0/1) *0*
0.45% Hawaii (0/9) *7*
0.43% App St (0/0) *0*
0.41% NC State (13/58) *13*
0.41% Indiana (12/30) *3*
0.37% Boston College (12/60) *12*
0.36% Illinois (2/2) *5*
0.35% Texas A*M (21/66) *2*
0.32% Arkansas (10/12) *0*
0.31% Mich St (10/21) *0*
0.28% Miss St (1/4) *0*
0.26% Colorado St (2/8) *3*
0.24% Pittsburgh (13/20) *6*
0.24% Tulsa (0/0) *2*
0.21% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.2% Virginia (14/34) *5*
0.19% Northwestern (1/2) *3*
0.19% Navy (0/0) *0*
0.18% Ole Miss (2/6) *0*
0.18% Purdue (0/2) *2*
0.16% Temple (0/1) *0*
0.15% Rutgers (4/7) *0*
0.15% Troy (0/0) *0*
0.14% Maryland (9/12) *1*
0.11% Tulane (0/5) *3*
0.1% Wake Forest (4/7) *6*
0.1% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*
0.09% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.09% Nevada (0/2) *2*
0.08% San Jose St (0/2) *2*
0.07% UNLV (0/1) *2*
0.06% Kentucky (0/0) *0*
0.05% Louisville (1/3) *0*
0.03% Missouri (0/0) *0*
0.03% New Mexico (0/0) *0*
0.03% La Tech (0/0) *0*
0.03% Army (2/11) *1*
0.02% South Carolina (0/0) *0*
0.02% Syracuse (2/7) *0*
0.01% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*

Computers don't think poorly of 6-1 records. Only numb nuts programmers build this bias into their simulations.
10-04-2020 01:07 PM
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Crayton Online
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Post: #14
RE: The Year That Is (Week 5: OK State stands alone)
(10-04-2020 11:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-04-2020 07:24 AM)Crayton Wrote:  G5 Playoff Odds in Hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff:

Why are you continuing to model a G5 in an 8-team playoff instead of the NY6 spot when the CFP has said that the playoff is not expanding?

Laziness.

This summer I added the ability to "query" each individual season of the 10,000 simulated, but I included only certain facts for each season: the schedule (including the playoff and CCG, but not other contingent games like other bowls or the runner-up games in the Pac-12 and Big Ten) and the 3 at-large teams for the hypothetical playoff to each season's data set.

At first blush I though I could just record the 3 NY6 teams that didn't make an 8-team playoff. But there is the possibility that conference ties require more than 3 such teams. Additionally, information like who gets the Orange slot(s) would be useful. So, if I do add NY6 info to the query-able data set, it'll be all 8 non-playoff NY6 teams. At the time I was trying to keep my data low, and laziness keeps me from adding it in now.

BUT, The simulation does indeed pick NY6 teams by the quirky, conference-based rules, but only records totals over the 10,000 seasons. For your viewing pleasure I have re-simmed just now to give those totals for the board's perusal:

Code:
2055 Florida
5417 Georgia
165 Tennessee
5 South Carolina
1 Kentucky
5 Missouri
4 Vanderbilt
8548 Alabama
592 LSU
841 Auburn
52 Arkansas
26 Ole Miss
183 Texas A*M
51 Miss St
1 Florida St
9406 Clemson
222 Boston College
19 Wake Forest
12 Louisville
227 NC State
16 Syracuse
92 Pittsburgh
6026 Miami
6 Georgia Tech
4199 Virginia Tech
142 Virginia
2530 North Carolina
0 Duke
6655 Notre Dame
22 Maryland
3851 Penn State
2178 Michigan
71 Mich St
7144 Ohio St
34 Rutgers
109 Indiana
3274 Wisconsin
38 Illinois
28 Purdue
21 Northwestern
257 Minnesota
1316 Iowa
112 Nebraska
88 West Virginia
0 Kansas
379 Kansas St
874 Iowa St
118 Oklahoma
5247 Oklahoma St
554 TCU
545 Texas
4 Texas Tech
145 Baylor
102 Colorado
45 Arizona
488 Arizona St
1632 USC
65 UCLA
3266 Utah
126 California
2596 Oregon
68 Oregon St
362 Stanford
3801 Washington
774 Wash St
0 UConn
782 Cincinnati
4 USF
1331 UCF
74 Temple
0 East Carolina
538 Houston
1038 SMU
597 Memphis
116 Tulsa
77 Tulane
90 Navy
6553 BYU
5627 Air Force
65 Colorado St
1093 Wyoming
7 New Mexico
6360 Boise St
1442 Utah St
15 UNLV
1037 San Diego St
19 Nevada
730 Fresno St
143 Hawaii
15 San Jose St
41 La Tech
0 UTEP
0 Rice
0 North Texas
0 UTSA
2 UAB
0 Southern Miss
0 Old Dominion
0 WKU
0 Charlotte
416 Marshall
0 Middle Tennessee
0 FIU
1567 FAU
32 Army
0 UMass
0 Buffalo
0 Ohio
0 Bowling Green
0 Kent St
0 Miami(OH)
0 Akron
0 Central Michigan
0 Western Michigan
0 Northern Illinois
0 Toledo
0 Ball St
0 Eastern Michigan
5 Liberty
0 New Mexico St
59 Troy
0 Arkansas St
2547 Louisiana
0 La Monroe
0 South Alabama
0 Texas St
0 Georgia St
4 Ga Southern
338 App St

And as I look at the data, I see MANY G5 teams getting into the NY6. Quick math says 3.25 spots on average are going to the G5(4? +BYU) while only 8.75 to the P5.

This is a result of so few OOC games. The P5 can't stand heads-and-shoulders above the rest without proving so on the field. Acknowledging the logistical limitations, the dearth of data says this would be a good year to try an 8-team playoff. If the chaff can't be sorted in the regular-season, sort it in the post-.
10-04-2020 01:19 PM
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Crayton Online
2nd String
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Posts: 372
Joined: Feb 2019
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Post: #15
RE: The Year That Is (Week 7: Alabama and Clemson cruise toward playoff berths)
Clemson tops Alabama in the rankings, Ohio State stays #3. Georgia falls 2 spots to #6 while Notre Dame claims the #4 spot. BYU and Miami fill out the Top 7.

Undefeated teams are still mostly locks for the playoff (including Boise/BYU), while the ACC is the most likely conference to keep a playoff spot if their champion has 1 loss. The MAC schedule has still yet to be added.

Boise State/Air Force now lead the race for the G5 NY6 spot. The computer is low on Cincinnati; this week's game vs. SMU will leave the American with 1 undefeated team and parity will likely continue to beat the conference down.

Top G5 Champ %
1) 29.75% Boise St
2) 22.22% Air Force
3) 11.84% Marshall
4) 7.07% SMU
5) 5.51% FAU
6) 4.07% Wyoming
7) 3.87% Utah St
8) 3.43% San Diego St
9) 3.37% Memphis
10) 3.03% Fresno St
11) 1.98% Cincinnati

Code:
Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)
#1 (5-0) 39.6 Clemson (W 73-7 vs. Georgia Tech)+1
#2 (4-0) 19.6 Alabama (W 41-24 vs. Georgia)-1
#3 (0-0) 24.5 Ohio St ---BYE---+0
#4 (4-0) 23 Notre Dame (W 12-7 vs. Louisville)+1
#5 (5-0) 27.5 BYU (W 43-26 vs. Houston)+5
#6 (3-1) 12.8 Georgia (L 24-41 vs. Alabama)-2
#7 (4-1) 20.7 Miami (W 31-19 vs. Pittsburgh)+6
#8 (0-0) 14.4 Penn State ---BYE----2
#9 (0-0) 12.4 Wisconsin ---BYE----2
#10 (3-0) 10.2 OK State ---BYE----2
#11 (3-1) 17.1 Virginia Tech (W 40-14 vs. Boston College)+10
#12 (0-0) 11.2 Michigan ---BYE----1
#13 (0-0) 11.4 Washington ---BYE---+2
#14 (0-0) 21.6 Boise St ---BYE---+2
#15 (0-0) 7.9 Iowa ---BYE----1
#16 (3-1) 0.5 Texas A*M (W 28-14 vs. Miss St)+3
#17 (2-1) 6.1 Florida ---BYE---+1
#18 (3-1) 20.1 North Carolina (L 28-31 vs. Florida St)-9
#19 (1-0) 18.1 Air Force ---BYE----2
#20 (2-1) 20 Memphis (W 50-49 vs. UCF)+9
#21 (4-1) 10.6 NC State (W 31-20 vs. Duke)+11
#22 (5-0) 10.1 SMU (W 37-34 vs. Tulane)+15
#23 (0-0) 9.1 Utah ---BYE----1
#24 (3-1) 5.2 Kansas St ---BYE---+1
#25 (3-1) 5.5 Iowa St ---BYE---+1
#26 (2-2) 2.9 Auburn (L 22-30 vs. South Carolina)-14
#27 (1-2) 8.8 LSU ---BYE----4
#28 (0-0) 7.7 Oregon ---BYE----4
#29 (2-2) 14.1 Oklahoma ---BYE----2
#30 (3-0) 12.1 Cincinnati ---BYE---+1
#31 (2-2) 15.8 UCF (L 49-50 vs. Memphis)-11
#32 (4-0) 13.6 Marshall (W 35-17 vs. La Tech)+24
#33 (1-0) 12.4 FAU ---BYE---+3
#34 (3-2) 4.3 Navy (W 27-23 vs. East Carolina)+5
#35 (3-2) 6.9 Boston College (L 14-40 vs. Virginia Tech)-7
#36 (0-0) 0.7 Minnesota ---BYE----3
#37 (0-0) 3.8 USC ---BYE----3
#38 (2-1) 16 App St ---BYE---+6
#39 (2-2) -0.8 Kentucky (W 34-7 vs. Tennessee)+7
#40 (2-2) 9.6 Texas ---BYE---+0
#41 (0-0) 3.1 Wash St ---BYE---+1
#42 (2-2) -2.5 South Carolina (W 30-22 vs. Auburn)+12
#43 (2-2) 14 Wake Forest (W 40-23 vs. Virginia)+20
#44 (3-1) 13 Louisiana (L 27-30 vs. Coastal Carolina)-14
#45 (1-1) 4 Baylor ---BYE----4
#46 (1-1) 7.4 Houston (L 26-43 vs. BYU)-11
#47 (3-1) 3.1 West Virginia (W 38-17 vs. Kansas)+10
#48 (0-0) -3.6 Indiana ---BYE----5
#49 (0-0) 9.3 Utah St ---BYE---+1
#50 (1-2) -4.1 Missouri ---BYE----5
#51 (1-2) 2.9 TCU ---BYE----4
#52 (0-0) -4.3 Nebraska ---BYE----4
#53 (0-0) -4.3 Mich St ---BYE----4
#54 (2-2) -6.4 Tennessee (L 7-34 vs. Kentucky)-16
#55 (2-3) 5.8 Florida St (W 31-28 vs. North Carolina)+15
#57 (5-0) 10.7 Liberty (W 38-21 vs. Syracuse)+25
#58 (0-0) -0.4 Stanford ---BYE----7
#59 (0-0) 8.7 Wyoming ---BYE---+5
#60 (0-0) 9.6 San Diego St ---BYE---+5
#61 (1-1) 3.8 Tulsa ---BYE----2
#62 (0-0) -2.1 Arizona St ---BYE----2
#63 (2-2) -12.3 Arkansas (W 33-21 vs. Ole Miss)+6
#64 (3-3) 9.5 Pittsburgh (L 19-31 vs. Miami)-6
#65 (1-1) 5 Temple (W 39-37 vs. USF)+3
#66 (2-3) 0.4 Georgia Tech (L 7-73 vs. Clemson)-4
#67 (1-3) -5.4 Miss St (L 14-28 vs. Texas A*M)-15
#68 (1-3) 15 Virginia (L 23-40 vs. Wake Forest)-13
#69 (5-1) 13.3 Army (W 28-16 vs. UTSA)+12
#70 (0-0) 6.4 Fresno St ---BYE---+3
#71 (3-1) 1.7 Troy (W 31-29 vs. FCS)-10
#72 (4-1) 3.4 UAB (W 37-14 vs. WKU)+15
#73 (0-0) -7.6 Northwestern ---BYE----7
#74 (0-0) -4.1 California ---BYE----2
#75 (2-3) 7.1 Tulane (L 34-37 vs. SMU)-8
#76 (0-0) -4.9 Colorado ---BYE---+0
#77 (0-0) -8 Purdue ---BYE---+0
#78 (3-2) -0.3 Arkansas St (W 59-52 vs. Georgia St)+8
#79 (1-3) -9.5 Ole Miss (L 21-33 vs. Arkansas)-26
#80 (1-4) 6.5 Louisville (L 7-12 vs. Notre Dame)-1
#81 (3-1) 2.5 Ga Southern (W 41-0 vs. UMass)+4
#82 (0-0) -10.9 Maryland ---BYE----4
#83 (0-0) 2.6 Hawaii ---BYE---+0
#84 (1-5) 5.1 Duke (L 20-31 vs. NC State)-10
#85 (3-2) 2.2 La Tech (L 17-35 vs. Marshall)-5
#86 (1-4) 3 Syracuse (L 21-38 vs. Liberty)-15
#87 (0-0) -8.4 UCLA ---BYE----3
#88 (0-0) 0 Colorado St ---BYE---+2
#89 (0-0) -12.1 Oregon St ---BYE---+0
#90 (0-0) -10.1 Arizona ---BYE---+1
#91 (0-0) -15.9 Illinois ---BYE----3
#92 (1-2) 2.8 Charlotte ---BYE---+0
#93 (0-0) -3.7 Nevada ---BYE---+4
#94 (1-3) -4.9 Texas Tech ---BYE---+0
#95 (1-3) 7 Southern Miss ---BYE---+1
#96 (0-0) -4.9 San Jose St ---BYE---+2
#97 (2-2) -7.6 South Alabama (W 30-20 vs. Texas St)+10
#98 (1-4) 7.9 WKU (L 14-37 vs. UAB)-3
#99 (1-2) -5.3 Georgia St (L 52-59 vs. Arkansas St)-6
#100 (0-0) -5.5 UNLV ---BYE---+5
#101 (0-0) -5.6 New Mexico ---BYE---+5
#102 (0-2) 9.3 FIU ---BYE---+6
#103 (3-3) -4.8 UTSA (L 16-28 vs. Army)+0
#104 (1-3) -7.8 East Carolina (L 23-27 vs. Navy)-4
#105 (0-3) -18 Vanderbilt ---BYE----4
#106 (0-0) -24.6 Rutgers ---BYE----4
#107 (2-3) -2.4 North Texas (W 52-35 vs. Middle Tennessee)+4
#108 (0-0) -8.4 Rice ---BYE---+2
#109 (1-5) -4 Middle Tennessee (L 35-52 vs. North Texas)-10
#110 (1-4) -6.7 USF (L 37-39 vs. Temple)-6
#111 (1-5) -7.7 Texas St (L 20-30 vs. South Alabama)-2
#112 (3-2) -15.1 UTEP ---BYE---+2
#113 (0-4) -17.3 Kansas (L 17-38 vs. West Virginia)-1
#114 (0-5) -12.1 La Monroe ---BYE---+1
#115 (0-1) -25.1 UMass (L 0-41 vs. Ga Southern)-2
#116 (0-1) -26.4 Ohio ---BYE---+0
#117 (0-1) -26.4 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0
#118 (0-1) -26.4 Buffalo ---BYE---+0
#119 (0-1) -26.4 Toledo ---BYE---+0
#120 (0-1) -26.4 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0
#121 (0-1) -26.4 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0
#122 (0-1) -26.4 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0
#123 (0-1) -26.4 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0
#124 (0-1) -26.4 Ball St ---BYE---+0
#125 (0-1) -26.4 Kent St ---BYE---+0
#126 (0-1) -26.4 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0
#127 (0-1) -26.4 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0
#128 (0-1) -26.4 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0
#129 (0-1) -26.4 Akron ---BYE---+0
#130 (0-1) -26.4 UConn ---BYE---+0

100% (11-0)+W Clemson (40%)
100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (2%)
100% (8-0)+W Penn State (4%)
100% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (3%)
100% (8-0)+W Boise St (5%)
99% (10-0)+W Alabama (41%)
99% (8-0)+W Air Force (7%)
99% (10-0)+W OK State (4%)
99% (6-0)+W Oregon (5%)
99% (8-0)+W Ohio St (25%)
99% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%)
99% (6-0)+W Washington (10%)
97% (10-1)+W Miami (2%)
97% (6-0)+W USC (2%)
96% (6-0)+W Utah (10%)
95% (10-1)+W Clemson (30%)
92% (10-0)      BYU (42%)
87% (11-0)+L  Clemson (8%)
87% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (8%)
80% (7-1)+W Boise St (18%)
78% (11-0)+W SMU (4%)
75% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)
73% (7-1)+W Utah St (2%)
72% (9-1)+W Alabama (27%)
69% (8-0)+L  Boise St (2%)
65% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (5%)
63% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%)
55% (10-0)+L  Alabama (14%)
55% (7-1)+W Wyoming (2%)
54% (9-1)+W Iowa St (1%)
53% (7-1)+W Penn State (9%)
53% (9-1)+W OK State (13%)
50% (7-1)+W Air Force (15%)
50% (7-1)+W San Diego St (1%)
49% (7-1)      Boise St (1%)
49% (9-1)+W Kansas St (1%)
49% (10-1)      Miami (1%)
45% (7-1)+W Iowa (3%)
42% (9-2)+W Miami (2%)
41% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (9%)
40% (8-0)+L  Air Force (3%)
40% (10-0)+L  OK State (2%)
39% (8-0)+W FAU (8%)
38% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (1%)
35% (9-2)+W Clemson (4%)
33% (7-1)+W Ohio St (21%)
32% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (1%)
28% (8-0)+L  Penn State (2%)
26% (10-1)+L  Miami (7%)
25% (7-1)+W Fresno St (2%)
24% (10-1)      Notre Dame (2%)
21% (5-1)+W Wash St (3%)
20% (10-0)+W Marshall (23%)
18% (8-0)+L  Iowa (2%)
16% (9-2)+W North Carolina (1%)
16% (7-1)      Air Force (6%)
16% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (3%)
16% (10-1)+L  Clemson (7%)
13% (7-1)      Michigan (7%)
13% (8-0)+L  Ohio St (7%)
12% (10-0)      Liberty (1%)
11% (8-0)+L  Wisconsin (5%)
11% (7-1)      Penn State (11%)
9% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (7%)
8% (5-1)+W Oregon (10%)
8% (8-0)+L  Fresno St (1%)
8% (5-1)+W USC (5%)
7% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (19%)
7% (5-1)+W Stanford (1%)
7% (5-1)+W Washington (15%)
6% (6-2)+W Utah St (3%)
6% (10-1)+L  North Carolina (2%)
5% (9-2)      Miami (19%)
5% (6-2)+W Boise St (14%)
5% (6-0)+L  Wash St (1%)
4% (5-1)+W Arizona St (2%)
4% (9-1)+W Memphis (9%)
4% (7-1)      Iowa (1%)
4% (9-1)+W Cincinnati (4%)
3% (9-1)      BYU (47%)
3% (7-1)+L  Boise St (7%)
3% (7-1)+L  Utah St (3%)
3% (7-1)      Wisconsin (3%)
3% (7-1)      Ohio St (15%)
3% (6-2)+W Michigan (1%)
3% (9-1)      Texas A*M (6%)
2% (9-2)      Clemson (4%)
2% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (5%)
2% (8-2)+W Georgia (10%)
2% (8-2)+W Alabama (5%)
2% (6-2)+W Wyoming (3%)
2% (10-1)+W SMU (13%)
2% (10-1)+L  NC State (2%)
2% (5-1)+W Utah (14%)
2% (6-0)+L  Oregon (4%)
2% (5-1)      Wash St (3%)
1% (6-0)+L  Washington (5%)
1% (8-2)+W Iowa St (8%)
1% (6-0)+L  Arizona St (1%)
1% (8-2)+W OK State (18%)
1% (11-0)+L  SMU (4%)
1% (9-2)+L  Miami (10%)
1% (6-2)+W San Diego St (5%)
1% (9-1)+L  OK State (7%)
0% (5-1)      Washington (13%)
0% (7-1)      Minnesota (1%)
0% (8-2)+W Florida (2%)
0% (6-2)+W Air Force (6%)
0% (6-0)+L  Utah (9%)
0% (6-0)+L  USC (3%)
0% (9-2)      Notre Dame (22%)
0% (9-1)+L  Alabama (8%)
0% (5-1)      Stanford (2%)
0% (5-1)      USC (9%)
0% (6-2)      Boise St (12%)
0% (9-1)+L  Georgia (19%)
0% (5-1)      Oregon (9%)
0% (6-2)+W Fresno St (2%)
0% (7-1)+L  Wyoming (4%)
0% (7-1)+L  Penn State (5%)
0% (7-1)+L  San Diego St (5%)
0% (7-1)+L  Air Force (9%)
0% (6-2)+W Iowa (3%)
0% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (3%)
0% (9-2)      North Carolina (11%)
0% (5-1)      Utah (9%)
0% (6-2)+W Wisconsin (5%)
0% (8-2)+W Kansas St (6%)
0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (7%)
0% (10-1)+W App St (7%)
0% (7-1)+L  Fresno St (8%)
0% (9-1)+W Marshall (17%)
0% (7-1)+L  Iowa (10%)
0% (9-2)      NC State (14%)
0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (30%)
0% (6-2)      Air Force (21%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (42%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (41%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (14%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (4%)
99% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (35%)
98% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (30%)
93% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (42%)
80% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (5%)
72% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (35%)
67% 1-loss at large ACC (20%)
62% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (44%)
52% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (16%)
42% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (48%)
40% 1-loss at large Big 12 (2%)
38% 1-loss at large SEC (21%)
31% 1-loss at large MWC (17%)
29% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (13%)
25% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (32%)
13% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (0%)
10% 1-loss at large Big Ten (61%)
7% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (55%)
6% 2-loss at large ACC (121%)
4% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (28%)
3% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (36%)
3% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (0%)
2% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (18%)
1% 1-loss at large AAC (4%)
0% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (80%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (41%)
0% 2-loss at large MWC (124%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (15%)
0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (20%)
0% 2-loss at large SEC (77%)
0% 3-loss at large ACC (198%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (18%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (34%)
0% 2-loss at large Big Ten (178%)

Playoff %
1) 80.64% Clemson
2) 68.95% Alabama
3) 41.01% BYU
4) 33.72% Ohio St
5) 24.09% Boise St
6) 17.94% Air Force
7) 15.69% Notre Dame
8) 12.73% OK State
9) 11.44% Penn State
10) 11.38% Washington
11) 10.75% Utah
12) 7.73% Miami
13) 7.7% Wisconsin
14) 6.35% Oregon
15) 6.27% Georgia
16) 4.88% Marshall
17) 4.75% Michigan
18) 4.13% SMU
19) 3.28% FAU
20) 2.98% Iowa
21) 2.78% USC
22) 2.38% Utah St
23) 2.35% Wyoming
24) 2.25% Virginia Tech
25) 1.91% Wash St
26) 1.44% Fresno St
27) 1.29% San Diego St
28) 1.13% North Carolina
29) 0.99% Iowa St
30) 0.77% Kansas St
31) 0.77% Cincinnati
32) 0.61% NC State
33) 0.53% Arizona St
34) 0.5% Florida
35) 0.43% Memphis
36) 0.4% Stanford
37) 0.34% Texas A*M
38) 0.3% Minnesota
39) 0.29% Hawaii
40) 0.21% Liberty
41) 0.2% California
42) 0.15% Indiana
43) 0.15% UCLA
44) 0.15% Oregon St
45) 0.14% Nebraska
46) 0.14% Houston
47) 0.1% Illinois
48) 0.1% Colorado
49) 0.08% Maryland
50) 0.08% Rutgers
51) 0.08% Arizona
52) 0.07% Northwestern
53) 0.07% Baylor
54) 0.06% Mich St
55) 0.05% Tulsa
56) 0.04% San Jose St
57) 0.03% Purdue
58) 0.03% West Virginia
59) 0.02% Colorado St
60) 0.02% Nevada
61) 0.01% Auburn
62) 0.01% Boston College
63) 0.01% Wake Forest
64) 0.01% Oklahoma
65) 0.01% Louisiana
66) 0.01% App St

Top G5 Champ %
1) 29.75% Boise St
2) 22.22% Air Force
3) 11.84% Marshall
4) 7.07% SMU
5) 5.51% FAU
6) 4.07% Wyoming
7) 3.87% Utah St
8) 3.43% San Diego St
9) 3.37% Memphis
10) 3.03% Fresno St
11) 1.98% Cincinnati
12) 0.72% Hawaii
13) 0.57% Houston
14) 0.49% App St
15) 0.41% Louisiana
16) 0.36% Tulsa
17) 0.26% UCF
18) 0.17% Navy
19) 0.11% UAB
20) 0.1% Colorado St
21) 0.09% Nevada
22) 0.06% San Jose St
23) 0.05% Temple
24) 0.05% Troy
25) 0.02% New Mexico
26) 0.02% UNLV

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
95.5% Clemson (302/363) *1719*
83.94% Alabama (21/27) *1030*
59.15% Ohio St (699/1146) *407*
45.37% OK State (45/103) *434*
42.67% BYU (4244/7037) *23*
39.01% Boise St (260/596) *666*
32.85% Notre Dame (695/1098) *1192*
32.48% Air Force (297/712) *729*
30.25% Washington (127/411) *120*
29.4% Utah (42/138) *93*
25% Iowa St (0/0) *30*
24.36% Miami (905/1692) *983*
23.85% Georgia (46/81) *236*
22.9% Penn State (527/1145) *217*
22.65% Wisconsin (103/250) *294*
21.82% Kansas St (0/3) *15*
19.99% Oregon (102/331) *98*
11.95% Marshall (5/30) *6*
11.12% USC (45/239) *61*
10.7% Michigan (345/897) *123*
10.32% Iowa (42/152) *125*
8.99% Virginia Tech (361/909) *344*
7.7% Wash St (40/164) *39*
7.64% SMU (0/2) *57*
5.56% North Carolina (180/422) *178*
5.56% FAU (3/20) *2*
5.37% Oklahoma (3/11) *16*
5.29% Utah St (27/126) *115*
5.26% Wyoming (13/61) *106*
4.22% Florida (9/23) *12*
4.2% San Diego St (14/58) *63*
4.09% Memphis (1/1) *71*
3.84% NC State (153/377) *120*
3.65% Fresno St (4/34) *58*
3.62% Arizona St (13/65) *17*
2.96% Texas A*M (212/689) *47*
2.81% West Virginia (2/9) *16*
2.59% Texas (0/0) *5*
2.57% Stanford (12/87) *11*
2.36% Cincinnati (2/8) *36*
1.75% Baylor (1/3) *4*
1.69% Minnesota (16/79) *12*
1.38% California (6/24) *10*
1.13% Colorado (0/25) *0*
0.86% TCU (0/8) *1*
0.85% Hawaii (0/12) *13*
0.58% Nebraska (0/14) *7*
0.57% UCLA (0/8) *2*
0.57% Houston (0/1) *0*
0.49% App St (0/0) *0*
0.41% Arizona (2/7) *2*
0.41% Louisiana (0/0) *0*
0.38% Coastal Carolina (0/1) *0*
0.37% Indiana (7/39) *8*
0.37% Tulsa (0/0) *1*
0.37% Liberty (32/157) *5*
0.32% Oregon St (4/8) *0*
0.3% UCF (1/2) *3*
0.29% Auburn (6/14) *0*
0.28% Kentucky (0/0) *0*
0.28% Illinois (2/2) *0*
0.26% Northwestern (5/7) *0*
0.24% South Carolina (2/2) *0*
0.2% Mich St (4/16) *0*
0.19% Purdue (1/5) *0*
0.17% Missouri (0/0) *0*
0.17% Navy (0/0) *0*
0.13% Colorado St (0/8) *3*
0.13% Nevada (0/0) *4*
0.12% LSU (0/3) *0*
0.12% Rutgers (3/4) *2*
0.11% UAB (0/0) *0*
0.1% San Jose St (1/2) *3*
0.09% Maryland (0/1) *1*
0.08% Tennessee (1/5) *0*
0.08% Boston College (2/5) *2*
0.07% Wake Forest (1/12) *3*
0.05% Arkansas (1/4) *0*
0.05% Temple (0/0) *0*
0.05% Troy (0/0) *0*
0.03% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*
0.03% Kansas (0/0) *0*
0.02% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*
0.02% New Mexico (0/1) *0*
0.02% UNLV (0/0) *0*
0.01% Florida St (1/1) *0*

0 BYE
724 Florida
4263 Georgia
17 Tennessee
21 South Carolina
9 Kentucky
5 Missouri
0 Vanderbilt
9652 Alabama
36 LSU
80 Auburn
12 Arkansas
0 Ole Miss
1417 Texas A*M
0 Miss St
0 Florida St
9774 Clemson
44 Boston College
104 Wake Forest
0 Louisville
1691 NC State
0 Syracuse
2 Pittsburgh
5722 Miami
1 Georgia Tech
3239 Virginia Tech
0 Virginia
1932 North Carolina
0 Duke
6616 Notre Dame
21 Maryland
4073 Penn State
2671 Michigan
74 Mich St
7400 Ohio St
16 Rutgers
140 Indiana
3265 Wisconsin
34 Illinois
35 Purdue
43 Northwestern
365 Minnesota
1582 Iowa
108 Nebraska
180 West Virginia
0 Kansas
975 Kansas St
1279 Iowa St
403 Oklahoma
4779 OK State
56 TCU
103 Texas
0 Texas Tech
118 Baylor
122 Colorado
38 Arizona
474 Arizona St
1579 USC
56 UCLA
3278 Utah
159 California
2590 Oregon
40 Oregon St
409 Stanford
3826 Washington
898 Wash St
0 UConn
689 Cincinnati
0 USF
114 UCF
14 Temple
0 East Carolina
197 Houston
2201 SMU
1318 Memphis
123 Tulsa
0 Tulane
85 Navy
8623 BYU
4921 Air Force
55 Colorado St
1082 Wyoming
7 New Mexico
5848 Boise St
1233 Utah St
7 UNLV
898 San Diego St
30 Nevada
707 Fresno St
174 Hawaii
25 San Jose St
0 La Tech
0 UTEP
0 Rice
0 North Texas
0 UTSA
57 UAB
0 Southern Miss
0 Old Dominion
0 WKU
0 Charlotte
2845 Marshall
0 Middle Tennessee
0 FIU
1165 FAU
8 Army
0 UMass
0 Buffalo
0 Ohio
0 Bowling Green
0 Kent St
0 Miami(OH)
0 Akron
0 Central Michigan
0 Western Michigan
0 Northern Illinois
0 Toledo
0 Ball St
0 Eastern Michigan
219 Liberty
0 New Mexico St
15 Troy
0 Arkansas St
284 Louisiana
0 La Monroe
0 South Alabama
0 Texas St
0 Georgia St
4 Ga Southern
384 App St
118 Coastal Carolina
Yesterday 02:10 PM
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Crayton Online
2nd String
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Posts: 372
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 39
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #16
RE: The Year That Is (Week 7: Alabama and Clemson cruise toward playoff berths)
(Champs/Appearances) rounded down%

SEC
Alabama (73/97)
Georgia (21/70)
Florida (4/25)
Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M (0/1)
<1% all others

ACC
Clemson (75/92)
Notre Dame (13/48)
Miami (5/24)
North Carolina (1/12)
NC State (1/10)
Virginia Tech (1/10)

Big 12
OK State (40/63)
Iowa St (24/57)
Kansas St (21/47)
Oklahoma (5/9)
West Virginia (2/7)
Texas (2/6)
TCU (0/2)
Baylor (0/1)

American
SMU (31/60)
Memphis (25/38)
Navy (14/35)
Cincinnati (11/23)
Houston (5/15)
Tulsa (5/13)
UCF (4/9)
Temple (0/2)
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 02:28 PM by Crayton.)
Yesterday 02:27 PM
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Crayton Online
2nd String
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Posts: 372
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 39
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #17
RE: The Year That Is (Week 7: Alabama and Clemson cruise toward playoff berths)
December 5th Standings (sim 131)

ACC:
#1 Clemson (11-0, 10-0; 479-190)
#6 North Carolina (8-2, 8-2; 300-210) lost to Duke 24-27
#7 Miami (8-3) lost to NC State 19-22 and North Crolina 21-22
#9 Virginia Tech (7-3) lost to Miami 6-45 and Clemson 31-40
#14 Boston College (8-3) lost to Clemson 10-55
#15 Notre Dame (7-3) lost to Clemson 17-52, Boston College 28-35, and North Carolina 20-23

SEC:
#2 Alabama (10-0; 311-181)
#10 Georgia (8-2; 311-195) lost to Kentucky 24-31

Pac-12:
#4 Washington (5-0; 147-51)
#5 Utah (5-0; 187-105)

Big Ten:
#8 Penn State (6-1; 255-142) lost to Indiana 24-27
#11 Wisconsin (6-1; 210-137) lost to Nebraska 24-35
#25 Iowa (5-2; 182-143) lost to Mich St 17-20 and Penn State 10-22
#27 Ohio St (5-2; 171-168) lost to Penn State 21-43 and Illinois 19-20
#29 Mich St (5-2; 192-171) lost to Indiana 31-32 and Ohio State 28-30

Big 12
#19 Kansas St (7-3, 7-2; 319-229) lost to WVU 28-41 and Baylor 17-27
#23 Oklahoma (7-3, 6-3; 286-192) lost to TCU 23-30
#24 OK State (6-3, 5-3; 243-209) lost to Texas 14-28, KSU 16-39, and OU 21-24
#31 Iowa St (6-4, 6-3; 278-214) lost to OSU 21-24, KSU 14-23, and UT 20-21)

Top Non-P5 Teams
#3 Boise St (7-0, 6-0; 213-126)
#12 Air Force (6-2, 4-2; 312-140) lost to Boise 10-19 and Utah St 24-31
#13 App St (9-1, 7-0; 358-203)
#16 BYU (8-1, 8-1; 307-145) lost to Boise 16-17
#17 Cincinnati (8-2, 6-2; 311-193) lost to UCF 16-19 and Temple 30-31
#18 Memphis (8-2, 6-2; 357-171) lost to Cincinnati 28-39
#20 Marshall (9-1, 6-1; 346-199) lost to FAU 28-37
#22 FAU (6-1, 5-1; 224-151) lost to FIU 21-24
#37 Fresno St (5-2, 5-2; 186-176) lost to SJSU 24-27 and SDSU 21-35

December 12th results:
#3 Boise St completes their season undefeated, beating Wyoming 28-21
#4 Washington fails to complete an undefeated regular season, falling to Oregon 21-24
#5 Utah successfully goes undefeated, obliterating Colorado 60-10
#6 North Carolina conquers WCU 51-21 en route to the ACC Championship
#8 Penn State clinches the Big Ten East, beating Michigan State 32-17
#9 Virginia Tech beats Virginia 28-17
#11 Wisconsin defeats Iowa for the Big Ten West crown, 20-17
#13 App State loses to rival Georgia Southern, again, 17-28
#15 Notre Dame beats Wake Forest 53-6
#16 BYU upends SDSU, 51-21, finishing 'close' to a NY6 berth
#22 FAU destroys Southern Miss 56-10 to beat out Marshall for the CUSA East crown
#24 OK State defeats Baylor 33-28 to steal the 2nd Big 12 title game slot
#37 Fresno State slips by New Mexico, 28-21, to secure a spot in the MWCG by virtue of win% over Air Force.

December 19th matchups // results
#1 Clemson (11-0) vs. #8 North Carolina (8-2) // 42-21
#2 Alabama (10-0) vs. #9 Georgia (8-2) // 24-39
#3 Utah (6-0) vs. #7 Washington (5-1) // 30-27
#4 Boise St (8-0) vs. #38 Fresno St (6-2) // 16-19
#5 Penn State (7-1) vs. #6 Wisconsin (7-1) // 32-17
#12 FAU (7-1) vs. #33 UAB (9-2) // 21-28
#15 Cincinnati (8-2) vs. #20 Memphis (8-2) // 31-36
#18 OK State (7-3) vs. #22 Kansas St (7-3) // 17-20
#25 App St (9-2) vs. #52 Ark St (7-4) // 36-12

Playoffs // results
#1 Clemson (12-0) vs. #4 Georgia (9-2) // 34-10
#2 Utah (7-0) vs. #3 Penn State (8-1) // 17-7
#1 Clemson (13-0) vs. #2 Utah (8-0) // 20-17

Georgia passing Alabama for the 4th spot may have been controversial; the two teams were 1-1 against each other, Georgia won the conference yet lost an additional game to Kentucky. The committee went with Georgia based off perceived relative strength (the Bulldogs had just won, and looked better against most common opponents).

Vs. common opponents, Georgia had the edge:
Alabama was +29 vs. Kentucky
Alabama was +12 vs. Missouri
Georgia was +10 vs. Auburn
Georgia was +14 vs. Miss St
Georgia was +18 vs. Arkansas
Georgia was +21 vs. Tennessee

New Years Six (manual bowl pairings)
Orange: #6 Miami (8-3) vs. #5 Alabama (10-1)
Cotton: #10 Wisconsin (7-2) vs. #7 North Carolina (9-3)
Fiesta: #8 Boise St (8-1) vs. #15 Kansas St (8-3)
Peach: #12 Memphis (9-2) vs. #9 Virginia Tech (8-3)
next 2: #11 Washington (5-2), #13 BYU (9-1)
(This post was last modified: Today 08:46 AM by Crayton.)
Yesterday 03:39 PM
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quo vadis Offline
Legend
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Posts: 35,826
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 1060
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #18
RE: The Year That Is (Week 7: Alabama and Clemson cruise toward playoff berths)
(Yesterday 03:39 PM)Crayton Wrote:  December 19th matchups // results
#1 Clemson (11-0) vs. #8 North Carolina (8-2) // 42-21
#2 Alabama (10-0) vs. #9 Georgia (8-2) // 24-39
#3 Utah (6-0) vs. #7 Washington (5-1) // 30-27
#4 Boise St (8-0) vs. #38 Fresno St (6-2) // 16-19
#5 Penn State (7-1) vs. #6 Wisconsin (7-1) // 17-32
#12 FAU (7-1) vs. #33 UAB (9-2) // 21-28
#15 Cincinnati (8-2) vs. #20 Memphis (8-2) // 31-36
#18 OK State (7-3) vs. #22 Kansas St (7-3) // 17-20
#25 App St (9-2) vs. #52 Ark St (7-4) // 36-12

Playoffs // results
#1 Clemson (12-0) vs. #4 Georgia (9-2) // 34-10
#2 Utah (7-0) vs. #3 Penn State (8-1) // 17-7
#1 Clemson (13-0) vs. #2 Utah (8-0) // 20-17

Georgia passing Alabama for the 4th spot may have been controversial; the two teams were 1-1 against each other, Georgia won the conference yet lost an additional game to Kentucky. The committee went with Georgia based off perceived relative strength (the Bulldogs had just won, and looked better against most common opponents).

IMO, if the results turn out as you indicate, Alabama would get the 4th playoff spot over Penn State. The playoffs would be Clemson, Utah, Georgia, and Alabama.

They're not going to put a Penn State team in with the same number of losses and two less wins over an Alabama team that beat Georgia, one of the playoff teams, B10 champs or not.
Yesterday 05:01 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Posts: 2,918
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I Root For: Realignment!
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Post: #19
RE: The Year That Is (Week 7: Alabama and Clemson cruise toward playoff berths)
BYU wouldn't qualify for the G5 spot in a 5-1-2 CFP. They'd have to make one of the two at-large spots.
Yesterday 05:09 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #20
RE: The Year That Is (Week 7: Alabama and Clemson cruise toward playoff berths)
(Yesterday 05:09 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  BYU wouldn't qualify for the G5 spot in a 5-1-2 CFP. They'd have to make one of the two at-large spots.

If I understand correctly, he's not positing a 5-1-2 CFP, just the existing 4-team CFP. BYU wouldn't qualify for the G5 spot under that either, and I see it he has Boise in the G5 spot meaning BYU would be getting an at-large spot. Anyway, I think his pairings are pretty crazy, as he is saying that there will be more G5 - type schools in the NY6 and playoffs (Memphis, Boise, and BYU) than SEC schools (Alabama, Georgia). Wake me up when that happens, LOL.

But you raise an interesting question: If the playoffs are expanded to 5-1-2, with a guaranteed spot for the G5 in the playoffs, would there also be a guaranteed G5 spot in the remaining major bowls?

I would think not. The P5 would not want to give the G5 two spots among the major bowls/playoffs.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 05:22 PM by quo vadis.)
Yesterday 05:19 PM
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