Threaded Mode | Linear Mode

Crayton · 09-16-2020 04:17 AM

After simulating The Year That Wasn't, I thought I'd use the same principles to view the college football season we actually have. Schedules are still in flux and I'll try and keep them updated with each look-in. As of now the Big Ten, Air Force, and others are excluded from the post-season. That may change.

Week 1-ish Projections
Week 3? Last look before adding Big Ten
Week 5: OK State stands alone

Crayton · 09-16-2020 04:27 AM

Week 1-ish Playoff Outlook
Teams with a >90% playoff chance include SEC teams with 1 or fewer losses, ACC and Big 12 Champs with 1 or fewer losses, and an undefeated team coming from the American Athletic Conference. That means roughly 48 teams have a good chance at the playoff if they win out (sorry, Navy).

Non-Power 6
Outside the aforementioned conferences, we give BYU a 53% chance of making the playoff *if* undefeated, Louisiana 41%, App St 36%, and FAU 27%; no other team finishes undefeated >1% of the time. Again, lots will change as teams get more practice in and the schedule continues to evolve.

New Years Six Race
Given the enhanced likelihood 2 "G5" teams finish the season strong, we'll look at outcomes of making the 5-1-2 playoff (3-1-2, with the Big Ten and Pac-12 out), rather than just the race to become the Top G5 team:
41% UCF
31% Memphis
16% App St
10% FAU
3% Louisiana
2% Navy
1% Houston
1% Cincinnati
1% BYU
<1% all others

Overall Playoff Favorites:
1) 75.53% Clemson
2) 75.5% Alabama
3) 36.02% LSU
4) 29.13% Oklahoma
5) 26.97% Notre Dame
6) 25% Georgia
7) 24.02% UCF
8) 18.66% Memphis
9) 14.65% Auburn
10) 13.83% Oklahoma St

Gross Data:

Code:

100% (10-0)+W Georgia (1%)

100% (10-0)+W Alabama (20%)

100% (9-1)+W Alabama (22%)

100% (10-0)+W LSU (4%)

100% (9-1)+W Auburn (2%)

100% (11-0)+W Clemson (32%)

100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (3%)

100% (10-0)+W Oklahoma (6%)

100% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (1%)

100% (10-0)+W Texas (1%)

100% (10-0)+W Memphis (6%)

99% (9-0)+W UCF (9%)

99% (9-1)+W LSU (9%)

99% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)

98% (10-0)+L  Alabama (6%)

98% (9-1)+W Florida (2%)

96% (9-1)      Alabama (10%)

95% (10-1)+W Clemson (32%)

94% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (7%)

94% (9-1)+W Baylor (1%)

93% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%)

93% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (9%)

93% (10-0)+L  LSU (2%)

92% (8-2)+W Alabama (5%)

92% (8-1)+W TCU (1%)

92% (10-1)+W Miami (1%)

91% (9-1)      Auburn (2%)

90% (9-1)      LSU (7%)

89% (9-1)+W Texas (5%)

89% (8-2)+W LSU (3%)

88% (9-1)+W Oklahoma (17%)

86% (10-0)+L  Florida (1%)

86% (10-0)+L  Georgia (2%)

82% (11-0)+L  Clemson (7%)

78% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (1%)

78% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (7%)

70% (9-1)+L  Alabama (6%)

69% (9-1)      Florida (1%)

67% (8-2)+W Georgia (8%)

65% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma (4%)

61% (10-0)+L  Texas (1%)

60% (9-1)+W Memphis (15%)

54% (10-1)      Notre Dame (1%)

53% (7-0)      BYU (14%)

53% (8-1)+W UCF (21%)

51% (9-1)+L  Auburn (1%)

50% (10-1)      Miami (2%)

48% (9-1)+L  Georgia (12%)

46% (9-2)+W Clemson (6%)

45% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (5%)

45% (8-2)      Alabama (16%)

43% (9-1)+L  LSU (5%)

41% (11-0)+W Louisiana (2%)

36% (9-0)+L  UCF (4%)

36% (11-0)+W App St (19%)

34% (8-2)      Auburn (19%)

34% (8-2)+W Baylor (4%)

34% (8-2)+W Florida (3%)

33% (10-0)+L  Memphis (5%)

30% (8-2)      Miss St (1%)

30% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (12%)

28% (9-2)+W Miami (2%)

27% (9-0)+W FAU (16%)

25% (10-1)+L  Clemson (8%)

24% (9-1)+L  Florida (6%)

24% (8-2)      LSU (28%)

23% (7-2)+W TCU (3%)

23% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (17%)

23% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (15%)

22% (8-2)+W Texas (8%)

19% (8-2)      Texas A*M (6%)

16% (8-2)      Georgia (8%)

13% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (6%)

13% (9-1)+L  Baylor (2%)

12% (10-1)+L  Miami (7%)

10% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)

8% (8-1)+L  TCU (3%)

7% (8-2)+W Memphis (11%)

7% (9-2)      Boston College (1%)

7% (10-1)+L  North Carolina (1%)

7% (9-2)      Notre Dame (12%)

6% (8-2)+L  Alabama (2%)

6% (9-2)      Clemson (4%)

6% (8-2)      Florida (9%)

5% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma (10%)

5% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (8%)

4% (7-2)+W UCF (15%)

4% (7-3)+W Georgia (3%)

4% (8-2)+L  Auburn (1%)

4% (9-1)+L  Texas (5%)

4% (8-3)+W Notre Dame (1%)

3% (8-2)+L  Georgia (16%)

2% (10-0)+W La Tech (1%)

2% (9-2)      Miami (17%)

2% (9-2)      North Carolina (7%)

1% (7-3)+W Baylor (2%)

1% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (4%)

1% (9-2)+W Navy (2%)

1% (8-2)      Texas (7%)

1% (8-2)      Oklahoma St (6%)

1% (6-3)+W UCF (2%)

1% (9-2)+L  North Carolina (4%)

1% (7-3)+W Oklahoma St (3%)

1% (8-2)      Memphis (10%)

1% (8-2)+L  Florida (12%)

1% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (15%)

1% (8-2)      Baylor (3%)

1% (7-3)      Alabama (6%)

0% (8-1)+L  UCF (13%)

0% (7-3)      Auburn (30%)

0% (8-2)+W Cincinnati (1%)

0% (8-2)      Oklahoma (6%)

0% (7-3)+W Oklahoma (1%)

0% (9-1)+L  Memphis (11%)

0% (9-2)+L  Miami (7%)

0% (8-1)+W FAU (26%)

0% (11-0)+L  App St (7%)

0% (7-3)+W Texas (1%)

0% (10-1)+W App St (25%)

0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (9%)

0% (9-2)+L  Clemson (1%)

0% (8-2)+L  Texas (11%)

0% (7-3)      LSU (22%)

0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (24%)

0% (11-0)+L  Louisiana (3%)

0% (8-1)      FAU (3%)

0% (8-2)+L  Baylor (6%)

0% (6-1)      BYU (42%)

0% (7-3)      Texas A*M (18%)

0% (7-3)      Oklahoma St (22%)

0% (8-3)      Notre Dame (13%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (27%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (36%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (9%)

99% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (43%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (16%)

94% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (45%)

92% 1-loss at large SEC (36%)

90% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (33%)

73% 1-loss at large ACC (21%)

73% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (22%)

66% 1-loss at large Big 12 (7%)

55% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (38%)

43% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (16%)

36% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (22%)

32% 1-loss at large AAC (11%)

32% 2-loss at large SEC (124%)

26% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (44%)

25% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (18%)

10% 2-loss at large ACC (93%)

5% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (5%)

5% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (33%)

4% 2-loss at large Big 12 (57%)

4% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (1%)

1% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (11%)

0% 3-loss at large SEC (169%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (36%)

0% 2-loss at large AAC (62%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (34%)

0% 1-loss at large Sun Belt (14%)

0% 3-loss CHAMP AAC (9%)

0% 3-loss at large ACC (150%)

0% 3-loss at large Big 12 (152%)

0% 1-loss at large CUSA (113%)

Playoff %

1) 75.53% Clemson

2) 75.5% Alabama

3) 36.02% LSU

4) 29.13% Oklahoma

5) 26.97% Notre Dame

6) 25% Georgia

7) 24.02% UCF

8) 18.66% Memphis

9) 14.65% Auburn

10) 13.83% Oklahoma St

11) 9.55% Texas

12) 8.56% Florida

13) 7.8% BYU

14) 7.28% App St

15) 5.46% Miami

16) 4.76% FAU

17) 3.43% Baylor

18) 2.79% Virginia Tech

19) 2.66% TCU

20) 2.01% Texas A*M

21) 1.04% Louisiana

22) 0.98% North Carolina

23) 0.55% Miss St

24) 0.33% Boston College

25) 0.26% Houston

26) 0.22% Arkansas

27) 0.22% Cincinnati

28) 0.22% Tulane

29) 0.21% Navy

30) 0.2% Vanderbilt

31) 0.18% Tennessee

32) 0.18% Temple

33) 0.17% Missouri

34) 0.17% West Virginia

35) 0.16% Ole Miss

36) 0.15% Kentucky

37) 0.14% South Carolina

38) 0.13% Georgia Tech

39) 0.12% Texas Tech

40) 0.11% Iowa St

41) 0.09% Kansas St

42) 0.08% Syracuse

43) 0.08% Kansas

44) 0.08% Texas St

45) 0.04% Louisville

46) 0.04% NC State

47) 0.04% USF

48) 0.04% East Carolina

49) 0.04% SMU

50) 0.04% La Tech

51) 0.04% Army

52) 0.01% Pittsburgh

53) 0.01% Rice

54) 0.01% Marshall

55) 0.01% Arkansas St

Top G5 Champ %

1) 35.89% UCF

2) 26.09% Memphis

3) 16.58% App St

4) 9.92% FAU

5) 3.37% Louisiana

6) 2.17% Navy

7) 1.42% Houston

8) 1.27% Cincinnati

9) 0.87% Temple

10) 0.67% Tulane

11) 0.44% La Tech

12) 0.31% Arkansas St

13) 0.23% Troy

14) 0.17% SMU

15) 0.11% Tulsa

16) 0.1% Marshall

17) 0.09% Middle Tennessee

18) 0.08% USF

19) 0.08% Texas St

20) 0.05% East Carolina

21) 0.04% Ga Southern

22) 0.03% WKU

23) 0.01% Rice

24) 0.01% Georgia St

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*

88.17% Clemson (220/344) *1411*

81.19% Alabama (2216/2558) *1083*

65.16% Ohio St (0/0) *0*

50.33% LSU (2480/3263) *823*

48.33% Oklahoma (135/356) *613*

45.42% Utah (0/0) *0*

41.85% UCF (66/211) *530*

38.29% Oregon (0/0) *0*

37.81% Notre Dame (469/1078) *1266*

37.23% Georgia (529/812) *1034*

34.68% Wisconsin (0/0) *0*

31.99% Oklahoma St (168/574) *591*

31.19% Memphis (65/238) *445*

24.62% Auburn (1654/2493) *400*

21.01% Texas (104/419) *308*

16.67% App St (0/3) *9*

15.31% Florida (354/873) *449*

11.68% Washington (0/0) *0*

11.66% Miami (426/1316) *292*

10.97% Baylor (97/474) *146*

10% FAU (8/19) *0*

7.55% TCU (42/300) *91*

5.26% Virginia Tech (202/827) *149*

4.15% USC (0/0) *0*

3.78% Texas A*M (253/570) *77*

3.48% Louisiana (4/4) *7*

3.06% North Carolina (104/530) *103*

2.19% Navy (1/13) *1*

1.69% Houston (16/116) *11*

1.5% Cincinnati (11/59) *12*

1.28% BYU (120/1503) *8*

1.21% Iowa St (0/9) *1*

1.19% Miss St (93/223) *18*

0.93% Temple (0/27) *6*

0.91% Boston College (46/225) *26*

0.86% Kansas St (0/5) *0*

0.81% Tulane (8/51) *6*

0.59% Kentucky (17/98) *13*

0.49% Kansas (0/0) *0*

0.45% Georgia Tech (13/47) *20*

0.44% La Tech (0/0) *0*

0.39% Colorado (0/0) *0*

0.35% West Virginia (0/16) *4*

0.31% South Carolina (11/18) *9*

0.31% Missouri (17/54) *1*

0.31% Arkansas St (0/3) *0*

0.29% Arkansas (14/22) *1*

0.24% Tennessee (6/21) *4*

0.23% Troy (0/4) *0*

0.2% Ole Miss (9/30) *3*

0.2% Texas Tech (0/1) *0*

0.17% Vanderbilt (0/8) *8*

0.17% SMU (0/1) *0*

0.16% Louisville (8/51) *8*

0.16% Penn State (0/0) *0*

0.15% Duke (8/13) *4*

0.12% Syracuse (0/9) *4*

0.11% Tulsa (0/1) *0*

0.1% Marshall (0/4) *0*

0.09% East Carolina (0/0) *4*

0.09% Middle Tennessee (0/1) *0*

0.08% USF (0/3) *0*

0.08% Texas St (0/1) *0*

0.07% California (0/0) *0*

0.05% Pittsburgh (0/8) *1*

0.04% Army (4/48) *0*

0.04% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*

0.03% WKU (0/0) *0*

0.01% Wake Forest (1/29) *0*

0.01% Virginia (1/7) *0*

0.01% Rice (0/0) *0*

0.01% Georgia St (0/0) *0*

CoachMaclid · 09-16-2020 07:10 AM

Crayton,

Just like to point out that BYU is not eligible for the G5 NY6 auto bid. One must be a G5 conference champion to be eligible for the NY6 bid, and all the independents like BYU are not able to be a G5 conference champion. They are eligible to be selected to one of the NY6 at large spots, but the autobid is to be selected from the g5conferenece champions.

Crayton · 09-16-2020 12:41 PM

(09-16-2020 07:10 AM)CoachMaclid Wrote: Crayton,

Just like to point out that BYU is not eligible for the G5 NY6 auto bid. One must be a G5 conference champion to be eligible for the NY6 bid, and all the independents like BYU are not able to be a G5 conference champion. They are eligible to be selected to one of the NY6 at large spots, but the autobid is to be selected from the g5conferenece champions.

Thank you. That is baked in (the percentages add up to>100%), meaning BYU's listed 1% would be as an at large for the NY6, likely only if they are undefeated. Afterward I did notice their LaTech game was not added yet, meaning the Cougars' chances of going undefeated are that much harder.

For comparison, UCF's 41% is about 35% as the top G5 and 6% as an at large (perhaps as the American runner-up or as 2nd best G5 champ).

I also noticed the computer is still simulating CCGs for the 4 conferences on hiatus; but that shouldn't affect anything.

Crayton · 09-20-2020 06:00 PM

Only one Top 25 teams lost this week, App State, who was replaced by the comeback. Midshipmen. Memphis also displaced Ole Miss in the Top 25 following their victory over Arkansas St. The Big Ten schedule will hopefully be incorporated for a mid-week update. UCF and Notre Dame both climbed the rankings of most likely to make the playoff. Memphis and Oklahoma both fell.

Playoff Outlook
Prior to Big Ten inclusion, champions from the SEC, ACC, Big 12, and American are locks (>98%) if they are undefeated; the ACC and SEC champs can suffer a loss. BYU sits at 55% (if undefeated), Marshall at 28%, FAU at 19%, Louisiana at 13%, and Louisiana Tech at 5%.

New Years Six Race:
1) 52.43% UCF (+5% chance as at large)
2) 13.84% Memphis (+1%)
3) 11.63% FAU
4) 7.56% Navy
5) 4.86% Louisiana
6) 2.47% Houston
7) 1.26% App St
8) 1.11% Cincinnati
9) 0.00% BYU (+1%)
10) 1.09% Marshall

Overall Playoff Favorites:
1) 78.42% Clemson (+2.89%)
2) 74.33% Alabama (-1.17%)
3) 41.94% Notre Dame (+14.97%)
4) 35.67% LSU (-0.35)
5) 33.90% UCF (+9.88)
6) 23.69% Georgia (-1.31)
7) 20.40% Oklahoma (-8.73%)
8) 14.47% Miami (+9.03%)
9) 13.58% Auburn (-1.07)
10) 13.08% Oklahoma St (-0.75%)
dropped: Memphis

Raw Data:

Code:

Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)

#1 (0-0) 30.7 Alabama ---BYE---+0

#2 (0-0) 24.1 LSU ---BYE---+0

#3 (2-0) 51.3 Clemson (W 49-0 vs. FCS)+1

#4 (0-0) 21.7 Georgia ---BYE----1

#5 (0-0) 19.4 Auburn ---BYE---+0

#6 (2-0) 38.6 Notre Dame (W 52-0 vs. USF)+1

#7 (0-0) 16.1 Florida ---BYE----1

#8 (1-0) 25.8 Oklahoma ---BYE---+1

#9 (0-0) 12.3 Texas A*M ---BYE----1

#10 (1-0) 17 Oklahoma St (W 16-7 vs. Tulsa)+0

#11 (1-0) 34.2 UCF (W 47-21 vs. Georgia Tech)+0

#12 (2-0) 29.3 Miami (W 47-34 vs. Louisville)+2

#13 (0-0) 8.7 Miss St ---BYE----1

#14 (1-0) 19 Texas ---BYE----1

#15 (0-0) 6.3 Kentucky ---BYE---+0

#16 (0-0) 12.2 Baylor ---BYE---+0

#17 (0-0) 26.5 Virginia Tech ---BYE---+2

#18 (0-0) 5.5 Missouri ---BYE----1

#19 (0-0) 12.1 TCU ---BYE----1

#20 (1-0) 27.1 North Carolina ---BYE---+1

#21 (0-0) 5.1 South Carolina ---BYE----1

#22 (1-0) 23.8 Boston College (W 26-6 vs. Duke)+3

#23 (1-1) 23 Navy (W 27-24 vs. Tulane)+3

#24 (1-1) 34.9 Memphis (W 37-24 vs. Arkansas St)+5

#25 (0-0) 3.3 Tennessee ---BYE----3

#26 (0-0) 2 Ole Miss ---BYE----2

#27 (0-1) 12.6 Kansas St ---BYE---+0

#28 (0-1) 11.4 Iowa St ---BYE---+0

#29 (1-1) 36.9 App St (L 7-17 vs. Marshall)-6

#30 (0-0) 27 FAU ---BYE---+0

#31 (0-0) 22.6 Houston ---BYE---+0

#32 (2-0) 29.1 SMU (W 65-35 vs. North Texas)+4

#33 (2-0) 23.1 Pittsburgh (W 21-10 vs. Syracuse)+9

#34 (2-0) 26.7 Louisiana (W 34-31 vs. Georgia St)+1

#35 (0-1) 28.7 Florida St ---BYE----2

#36 (1-0) 24.6 Cincinnati (W 55-20 vs. FCS)-4

#37 (0-0) 20.4 Temple ---BYE---+0

#38 (1-0) 21.8 NC State (W 45-42 vs. Wake Forest)+13

#39 (1-1) 22.1 Louisville (L 34-47 vs. Miami)+1

#40 (1-1) 17.1 Georgia Tech (L 21-47 vs. UCF)+1

#41 (0-0) -7.7 Arkansas ---BYE----2

#42 (0-2) 28 Wake Forest (L 42-45 vs. NC State)-8

#43 (0-0) 27.2 Virginia ---BYE---+3

#44 (1-0) 37.5 BYU ---BYE---+4

#45 (1-0) 10.3 West Virginia ---BYE----1

#46 (1-0) 27.3 Troy ---BYE---+1

#47 (1-1) 21.8 Tulane (L 24-27 vs. Navy)-4

#48 (0-2) 18.9 Syracuse (L 10-21 vs. Pittsburgh)-10

#49 (0-0) -6.2 Vanderbilt ---BYE----4

#50 (0-2) 20.1 Duke (L 6-26 vs. Boston College)-1

#51 (0-1) 16.5 Tulsa (L 7-16 vs. Oklahoma St)-1

#52 (1-0) 4.5 Texas Tech ---BYE---+0

#53 (1-0) 26.6 La Tech ---BYE---+1

#54 (2-0) 39.5 Army (W 42-0 vs. Middle Tennessee)+5

#55 (2-0) 25.7 Marshall (W 17-7 vs. App St)+8

#56 (1-1) 22.4 Arkansas St (L 24-37 vs. Memphis)-3

#57 (1-0) 16 Ga Southern ---BYE----2

#59 (1-1) 11.8 USF (L 0-52 vs. Notre Dame)-1

#60 (0-2) 16 Middle Tennessee (L 0-42 vs. Army)-4

#61 (0-1) -5.8 Kansas ---BYE----1

#62 (0-2) 23.7 WKU (L 24-30 vs. Liberty)-1

#63 (0-2) 22.4 Southern Miss (L 21-32 vs. South Alabama)-1

#64 (0-1) 9.1 Georgia St (L 31-34 vs. Louisiana)+1

#65 (0-1) 12.7 Charlotte ---BYE---+2

#66 (1-1) 9.2 South Alabama (W 32-21 vs. Southern Miss)+8

#67 (0-0) 3.3 East Carolina ---BYE---+1

#68 (0-0) 22.7 FIU ---BYE---+1

#69 (1-1) 12.7 North Texas (L 35-65 vs. SMU)-3

#70 (0-2) 11.8 La Monroe (L 17-38 vs. Texas St)-6

#71 (1-1) 11.4 UAB (W 45-35 vs. FCS)-1

#72 (2-0) 6.7 UTSA (W 24-10 vs. FCS)-1

#73 (1-0) 20.4 Liberty (W 30-24 vs. WKU)+0

#74 (1-1) 6.5 Texas St (W 38-17 vs. La Monroe)+2

#75 (0-1) 12.5 Air Force ---BYE---+0

#76 (0-0) 5.7 Rice ---BYE----4

#77 (1-1) -3.4 UTEP (W 17-13 vs. FCS)+0

#78 (0-1) -26.7 Ohio St ---BYE---+0

#79 (0-1) -26.7 Penn State ---BYE---+0

#80 (0-1) -26.7 Wisconsin ---BYE---+0

#81 (0-1) -26.7 Michigan ---BYE---+0

#82 (0-1) -26.7 Iowa ---BYE---+0

#83 (0-1) -26.7 Washington ---BYE---+0

#84 (0-1) -26.7 Utah ---BYE---+0

#85 (0-1) -26.7 Oregon ---BYE---+0

#86 (0-1) -26.7 Minnesota ---BYE---+0

#87 (0-1) -26.7 Boise St ---BYE---+0

#88 (0-1) -26.7 USC ---BYE---+0

#89 (0-1) -26.7 Wash St ---BYE---+0

#90 (0-1) -26.7 Indiana ---BYE---+0

#91 (0-1) -26.7 Mich St ---BYE---+0

#92 (0-1) -26.7 Nebraska ---BYE---+0

#93 (0-1) -26.7 Stanford ---BYE---+0

#94 (0-1) -26.7 Arizona St ---BYE---+0

#95 (0-1) -26.7 Northwestern ---BYE---+0

#96 (0-1) -26.7 Purdue ---BYE---+0

#97 (0-1) -26.7 California ---BYE---+0

#98 (0-1) -26.7 Ohio ---BYE---+0

#99 (0-1) -26.7 Colorado ---BYE---+0

#100 (0-1) -26.7 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0

#101 (0-1) -26.7 Utah St ---BYE---+0

#102 (0-1) -26.7 Maryland ---BYE---+0

#103 (0-1) -26.7 Wyoming ---BYE---+0

#104 (0-1) -26.7 San Diego St ---BYE---+0

#105 (0-1) -26.7 Fresno St ---BYE---+0

#106 (0-1) -26.7 UCLA ---BYE---+0

#107 (0-1) -26.7 Buffalo ---BYE---+0

#108 (0-1) -26.7 Toledo ---BYE---+0

#109 (0-1) -26.7 Arizona ---BYE---+0

#110 (0-1) -26.7 Illinois ---BYE---+1

#111 (0-1) -26.7 Eastern Michigan ---BYE----1

#112 (0-1) -26.7 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0

#113 (0-1) -26.7 Hawaii ---BYE---+0

#114 (0-1) -26.7 Oregon St ---BYE---+0

#115 (0-1) -26.7 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0

#116 (0-1) -26.7 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0

#117 (0-1) -26.7 Colorado St ---BYE---+0

#118 (0-1) -26.7 Ball St ---BYE---+0

#119 (0-1) -26.7 Nevada ---BYE---+0

#120 (0-1) -26.7 Kent St ---BYE---+0

#121 (0-1) -26.7 Rutgers ---BYE---+0

#122 (0-1) -26.7 San Jose St ---BYE---+0

#123 (0-1) -26.7 New Mexico ---BYE---+0

#124 (0-1) -26.7 UNLV ---BYE---+0

#125 (0-1) -26.7 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0

#126 (0-1) -26.7 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0

#127 (0-1) -26.7 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0

#128 (0-1) -26.7 Akron ---BYE---+0

#129 (0-1) -26.7 UConn ---BYE---+0

#130 (0-1) -26.7 UMass ---BYE---+0

100% (10-0)+W Georgia (1%)

100% (10-0)+W Alabama (20%)

100% (9-1)+W Alabama (22%)

100% (10-0)+W LSU (4%)

100% (9-1)+W Auburn (2%)

100% (11-0)+W Clemson (27%)

100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (4%)

100% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (2%)

100% (10-0)+W Texas (1%)

99% (9-1)+W LSU (9%)

99% (10-0)+W Oklahoma (6%)

99% (10-1)+W Clemson (30%)

99% (10-0)+W Memphis (1%)

99% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)

98% (9-0)+W UCF (19%)

98% (10-0)+L  Alabama (5%)

98% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (12%)

97% (9-1)+W Florida (1%)

97% (10-1)+W Miami (3%)

95% (9-1)      Alabama (10%)

95% (11-0)+L  Clemson (7%)

93% (10-0)+L  LSU (2%)

91% (9-1)      Auburn (2%)

89% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (7%)

88% (9-1)      LSU (8%)

88% (8-2)+W Alabama (5%)

86% (10-0)+L  Georgia (2%)

84% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (9%)

83% (8-1)+W Baylor (1%)

81% (9-2)+W Clemson (7%)

81% (10-0)+L  Florida (1%)

80% (9-1)+W Texas (4%)

80% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%)

79% (8-2)+W LSU (3%)

79% (8-1)+W TCU (1%)

75% (10-1)      Notre Dame (2%)

74% (11-0)+L  Miami (1%)

73% (9-1)+W Oklahoma (15%)

73% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (1%)

72% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (5%)

71% (9-1)      Florida (1%)

66% (10-1)      Miami (3%)

64% (9-2)+W Miami (2%)

64% (9-1)+L  Alabama (6%)

61% (8-2)+W Georgia (8%)

55% (9-1)+L  Auburn (1%)

55% (8-0)      BYU (11%)

53% (10-1)+L  Clemson (9%)

49% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (18%)

48% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (1%)

44% (9-1)+L  Georgia (12%)

44% (9-1)+L  LSU (5%)

41% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma (3%)

40% (10-1)+L  Boston College (1%)

40% (8-2)      Alabama (15%)

39% (8-2)+W Florida (2%)

39% (9-1)+L  North Carolina (2%)

39% (9-1)+W Memphis (8%)

39% (8-1)+W UCF (29%)

37% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)

33% (8-2)      Auburn (17%)

32% (10-1)+L  Miami (10%)

29% (9-0)+L  UCF (7%)

28% (8-0)+W Marshall (1%)

27% (10-1)+W Navy (1%)

24% (8-2)      LSU (28%)

23% (9-2)      Clemson (7%)

19% (8-0)+W FAU (20%)

19% (9-1)+L  Florida (7%)

17% (8-2)      Texas A*M (5%)

17% (8-2)      Georgia (6%)

17% (9-2)      Notre Dame (15%)

16% (8-2)      Miss St (1%)

16% (10-0)+L  Memphis (2%)

15% (9-2)      Boston College (4%)

13% (11-0)+W Louisiana (6%)

11% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (9%)

10% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (13%)

10% (8-2)+L  Alabama (1%)

10% (8-2)+W Texas (7%)

9% (7-2)+W Baylor (4%)

8% (7-2)+W TCU (3%)

7% (8-2)      North Carolina (8%)

7% (9-2)      Miami (21%)

7% (7-3)+W Georgia (4%)

7% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (14%)

6% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (10%)

5% (9-2)+L  Clemson (2%)

5% (11-0)+W La Tech (1%)

4% (8-2)      Florida (10%)

4% (9-2)+L  Miami (8%)

4% (8-2)+L  North Carolina (3%)

4% (7-2)+W UCF (10%)

4% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (4%)

4% (9-2)+L  Boston College (2%)

3% (8-2)+L  Auburn (1%)

3% (7-3)+W Florida (1%)

2% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (8%)

2% (8-1)+L  Baylor (2%)

2% (8-2)+L  Georgia (17%)

1% (8-2)+W Memphis (7%)

1% (8-2)+L  LSU (2%)

1% (8-2)+W Houston (1%)

1% (7-3)      Alabama (6%)

1% (8-1)+L  TCU (2%)

1% (9-1)+L  Texas (6%)

0% (8-2)      Oklahoma St (6%)

0% (8-1)+L  UCF (10%)

0% (7-3)      Auburn (32%)

0% (9-1)+L  Houston (2%)

0% (7-3)      Missouri (2%)

0% (7-1)      BYU (35%)

0% (9-1)+L  Memphis (10%)

0% (11-1)+W Troy (2%)

0% (8-3)      Miami (26%)

0% (7-3)      LSU (22%)

0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (24%)

0% (9-2)+W Navy (6%)

0% (7-3)+W Oklahoma St (3%)

0% (8-2)      Texas (7%)

0% (8-3)      Clemson (3%)

0% (7-3)      North Carolina (24%)

0% (7-2)      Baylor (4%)

0% (8-2)      Houston (4%)

0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma (9%)

0% (7-3)      Georgia (14%)

0% (8-3)      Boston College (19%)

0% (7-1)+W FAU (27%)

0% (7-3)      Miss St (7%)

0% (8-3)      Notre Dame (14%)

0% (10-1)+W App St (10%)

0% (8-2)+L  Florida (11%)

0% (8-2)      Memphis (13%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (26%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (33%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (9%)

99% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (44%)

99% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (47%)

98% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (21%)

91% 1-loss at large SEC (35%)

84% 1-loss at large ACC (24%)

78% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (33%)

76% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (17%)

69% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (22%)

45% 1-loss at large Big 12 (7%)

39% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (40%)

30% 2-loss at large SEC (121%)

25% 2-loss at large ACC (112%)

23% 1-loss at large AAC (11%)

18% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (23%)

15% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (1%)

14% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (6%)

9% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (45%)

7% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (6%)

2% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (27%)

1% 3-loss at large ACC (162%)

0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (59%)

0% 3-loss at large SEC (171%)

0% 2-loss at large AAC (73%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (38%)

0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (10%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (30%)

0% 4-loss at large ACC (166%)

Playoff %

1) 78.42% Clemson

2) 74.33% Alabama

3) 41.94% Notre Dame

4) 35.67% LSU

5) 33.9% UCF

6) 23.69% Georgia

7) 20.4% Oklahoma

8) 14.47% Miami

9) 13.58% Auburn

10) 13.08% Oklahoma St

11) 7.15% Florida

12) 6.5% BYU

13) 6.2% Texas

14) 5.59% Memphis

15) 4.78% Virginia Tech

16) 3.91% FAU

17) 3.04% North Carolina

18) 2.28% Baylor

19) 1.97% Boston College

20) 1.83% Texas A*M

21) 1.74% TCU

22) 0.82% Louisiana

23) 0.74% Houston

24) 0.45% Marshall

25) 0.42% Navy

26) 0.39% Kentucky

27) 0.34% Miss St

28) 0.25% Arkansas

29) 0.23% Ole Miss

30) 0.2% South Carolina

31) 0.19% Pittsburgh

32) 0.16% Cincinnati

33) 0.14% East Carolina

34) 0.13% Temple

35) 0.13% Troy

36) 0.11% Tennessee

37) 0.11% NC State

38) 0.11% SMU

39) 0.09% West Virginia

40) 0.08% Texas Tech

41) 0.08% La Tech

42) 0.07% Vanderbilt

43) 0.06% Missouri

44) 0.06% Georgia Tech

45) 0.04% Virginia

46) 0.04% Kansas St

47) 0.03% Louisville

48) 0.03% Kansas

49) 0.01% Iowa St

50) 0.01% Ga Southern

51) 0.01% App St

Top G5 Champ %

1) 52.43% UCF

2) 13.84% Memphis

3) 11.63% FAU

4) 7.56% Navy

5) 4.86% Louisiana

6) 2.47% Houston

7) 1.26% App St

8) 1.11% Cincinnati

9) 1.09% Marshall

10) 0.93% La Tech

11) 0.76% Troy

12) 0.67% SMU

13) 0.55% Temple

14) 0.2% USF

15) 0.18% East Carolina

16) 0.12% Ga Southern

17) 0.06% Tulane

18) 0.06% UTSA

19) 0.06% Arkansas St

20) 0.05% Tulsa

21) 0.03% FIU

22) 0.02% Rice

23) 0.02% Texas St

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*

87.96% Clemson (432/763) *1821*

81.04% Alabama (2176/2497) *1038*

65.28% Ohio St (0/0) *0*

57.79% UCF (55/122) *481*

48.86% Notre Dame (688/1592) *1834*

47.78% LSU (2411/3146) *617*

47.53% Utah (0/0) *0*

42.88% Oklahoma (63/179) *368*

34.54% Wisconsin (0/0) *0*

34.5% Georgia (409/624) *876*

34.3% Oregon (0/0) *0*

33.01% Oklahoma St (78/254) *317*

21.62% Auburn (1475/2183) *314*

21.06% Miami (674/2198) *763*

17.06% Texas (43/167) *149*

15.53% Washington (0/0) *0*

15.5% Memphis (19/82) *147*

12.75% Florida (322/707) *297*

11.68% FAU (3/3) *2*

8.93% Baylor (30/149) *69*

7.6% Navy (3/4) *1*

7.48% Virginia Tech (246/1118) *289*

7.22% TCU (22/132) *65*

4.86% Louisiana (0/0) *0*

4.43% North Carolina (157/789) *183*

3.7% Boston College (145/689) *143*

3.35% Texas A*M (210/443) *86*

2.74% Houston (11/96) *16*

2.16% USC (0/0) *0*

1.26% App St (0/0) *0*

1.24% Cincinnati (3/25) *10*

1.09% BYU (105/1298) *4*

1.09% Marshall (0/6) *0*

1.05% Miss St (79/175) *16*

0.97% Kentucky (31/76) *24*

0.93% Kansas St (0/3) *0*

0.93% La Tech (0/0) *0*

0.9% Iowa St (0/0) *0*

0.79% Troy (3/9) *0*

0.7% SMU (1/20) *2*

0.59% Temple (0/27) *4*

0.45% Missouri (16/29) *7*

0.45% Pittsburgh (19/113) *22*

0.45% Colorado (0/0) *0*

0.42% Kansas (0/0) *0*

0.37% Arkansas (20/28) *10*

0.37% Texas Tech (0/3) *2*

0.29% South Carolina (8/30) *3*

0.28% West Virginia (0/1) *0*

0.24% Ole Miss (17/28) *0*

0.23% Vanderbilt (14/17) *2*

0.22% Tennessee (3/18) *5*

0.2% USF (0/0) *0*

0.18% Penn State (0/0) *0*

0.18% East Carolina (0/1) *0*

0.17% NC State (6/57) *6*

0.12% Georgia Tech (1/20) *4*

0.12% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*

0.08% Tulane (2/4) *0*

0.06% UTSA (0/0) *0*

0.06% Arkansas St (0/0) *0*

0.05% Tulsa (0/0) *0*

0.04% Louisville (0/21) *3*

0.04% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*

0.03% California (0/0) *0*

0.03% FIU (0/0) *0*

0.02% Florida St (0/5) *0*

0.02% Rice (0/0) *0*

0.02% Texas St (0/0) *0*

Crayton · 09-22-2020 11:42 PM

The Big Ten is IN. They place 4 teams in the Top 9 with #12 Iowa and #21 Minnesota not far behind. Laughably only 2 Top 14 teams played last week, Clemson and Notre Dame.

G5 in the playoff? Yep. Still a thing. An undefeated American champ has gone from a 98% to a 94% of crashing the party, but the odds are still pretty good.

Ohio State is the conference favorite and the computer will weight that more and more as the season continues to pass the Big Ten by. But, 3 teams from each division are given decent odds and no doubt 2020 will have a few more surprises in store for us.

raw data:

Code:

Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)

#1 (0-0) 23.1 Alabama ---BYE---+0

#2 (0-0) 27.6 Ohio St ---BYE---+0

#3 (0-0) 16.5 LSU ---BYE---+0

#4 (2-0) 45.9 Clemson (W 49-0 vs. FCS)+1

#5 (0-0) 14.1 Georgia ---BYE----1

#6 (0-0) 17.5 Penn State ---BYE---+0

#7 (0-0) 15.5 Wisconsin ---BYE---+0

#8 (0-0) 11.8 Auburn ---BYE---+0

#9 (0-0) 14.3 Michigan ---BYE---+0

#10 (2-0) 32.7 Notre Dame (W 52-0 vs. USF)+1

#11 (0-0) 8.5 Florida ---BYE----1

#12 (0-0) 11 Iowa ---BYE---+0

#13 (1-0) 20.7 Oklahoma ---BYE---+1

#14 (0-0) 4.7 Texas A*M ---BYE----1

#15 (1-0) 11.4 Oklahoma St (W 16-7 vs. Tulsa)+0

#16 (1-0) 28.6 UCF (W 47-21 vs. Georgia Tech)+0

#17 (2-0) 23.5 Miami (W 47-34 vs. Louisville)+2

#18 (0-0) 1.1 Miss St ---BYE----1

#19 (1-0) 13.5 Texas ---BYE----1

#20 (0-0) -1.3 Kentucky ---BYE---+0

#21 (0-0) 3.8 Minnesota ---BYE---+0

#22 (0-0) 6.6 Baylor ---BYE---+0

#23 (0-0) 20.8 Virginia Tech ---BYE---+3

#24 (0-0) -2.1 Missouri ---BYE----1

#25 (0-0) 6.5 TCU ---BYE---+0

#26 (0-0) -0.5 Indiana ---BYE----2

#27 (1-0) 21.2 North Carolina ---BYE---+2

#28 (0-0) -2.5 South Carolina ---BYE----1

#29 (0-0) -1.2 Nebraska ---BYE----1

#30 (1-0) 18 Boston College (W 26-6 vs. Duke)+4

#31 (1-1) 18.1 Navy (W 27-24 vs. Tulane)+4

#32 (0-0) -1.2 Mich St ---BYE----2

#33 (1-1) 29.1 Memphis (W 37-24 vs. Arkansas St)+5

#34 (0-0) -4.3 Tennessee ---BYE----3

#35 (0-0) -5.6 Ole Miss ---BYE----2

#36 (0-1) 7.1 Kansas St ---BYE---+0

#37 (1-1) 33.5 App St (L 7-17 vs. Marshall)-5

#38 (0-0) 22.4 FAU ---BYE---+1

#39 (0-0) 17.5 Houston ---BYE---+2

#40 (2-0) 25.4 SMU (W 65-35 vs. North Texas)+4

#41 (2-0) 23.2 Louisiana (W 34-31 vs. Georgia St)+2

#42 (2-0) 17.7 Pittsburgh (W 21-10 vs. Syracuse)+12

#43 (0-1) 5.9 Iowa St ---BYE----6

#44 (0-0) -4.5 Northwestern ---BYE----4

#45 (0-1) 23.3 Florida St ---BYE---+0

#46 (1-0) 19.9 Cincinnati (W 55-20 vs. FCS)-4

#47 (0-0) 15.1 Temple ---BYE---+3

#48 (1-0) 16.1 NC State (W 45-42 vs. Wake Forest)+15

#49 (1-1) 16.3 Louisville (L 34-47 vs. Miami)+2

#50 (1-1) 11.2 Georgia Tech (L 21-47 vs. UCF)+3

#51 (0-0) -7.8 Maryland ---BYE----3

#52 (0-0) -4.9 Purdue ---BYE----3

#53 (1-0) 33.5 BYU ---BYE---+7

#54 (1-0) 23.9 Troy ---BYE---+5

#55 (0-2) 22.6 Wake Forest (L 42-45 vs. NC State)-9

#56 (0-0) 21.8 Virginia ---BYE---+2

#57 (0-0) -15.3 Arkansas ---BYE----5

#58 (1-0) 5.2 West Virginia ---BYE----2

#59 (1-1) 16.7 Tulane (L 24-27 vs. Navy)-4

#60 (0-2) 13.1 Syracuse (L 10-21 vs. Pittsburgh)-13

#61 (0-0) -13.8 Vanderbilt ---BYE----4

#62 (0-2) 14.2 Duke (L 6-26 vs. Boston College)-1

#63 (0-1) 11.3 Tulsa (L 7-16 vs. Oklahoma St)-1

#64 (1-0) -0.6 Texas Tech ---BYE---+1

#65 (0-0) -12.8 Illinois ---BYE----1

#66 (1-0) 22.6 La Tech ---BYE---+1

#67 (2-0) 36.2 Army (W 42-0 vs. Middle Tennessee)+6

#68 (2-0) 21.8 Marshall (W 17-7 vs. App St)+9

#69 (1-1) 18.6 Arkansas St (L 24-37 vs. Memphis)-3

#70 (1-0) 12.8 Ga Southern ---BYE----2

#72 (1-1) 6.7 USF (L 0-52 vs. Notre Dame)-1

#73 (0-2) 11.6 Middle Tennessee (L 0-42 vs. Army)-3

#74 (0-0) -21.5 Rutgers ---BYE----2

#75 (0-1) -10.9 Kansas ---BYE----1

#76 (0-2) 19.5 WKU (L 24-30 vs. Liberty)-1

#77 (0-2) 18.3 Southern Miss (L 21-32 vs. South Alabama)-1

#78 (0-1) 5.4 Georgia St (L 31-34 vs. Louisiana)+1

#79 (0-1) 8.2 Charlotte ---BYE---+2

#80 (1-1) 5.4 South Alabama (W 32-21 vs. Southern Miss)+6

#81 (1-1) 8.5 North Texas (L 35-65 vs. SMU)-1

#82 (0-0) -1.8 East Carolina ---BYE---+0

#83 (0-0) 18.7 FIU ---BYE---+0

#84 (0-2) 8 La Monroe (L 17-38 vs. Texas St)-6

#85 (1-1) 7.3 UAB (W 45-35 vs. FCS)-1

#86 (2-0) 2.7 UTSA (W 24-10 vs. FCS)-1

#87 (1-0) 16.8 Liberty (W 30-24 vs. WKU)+2

#88 (1-1) 2.7 Texas St (W 38-17 vs. La Monroe)+2

#89 (0-1) 9.5 Air Force ---BYE----2

#90 (0-0) 1.3 Rice ---BYE----2

#91 (1-1) -7.2 UTEP (W 17-13 vs. FCS)+0

#92 (0-1) -26.8 Washington ---BYE---+0

#93 (0-1) -26.8 Utah ---BYE---+0

#94 (0-1) -26.8 Oregon ---BYE---+0

#95 (0-1) -26.8 Boise St ---BYE---+0

#96 (0-1) -26.8 USC ---BYE---+0

#97 (0-1) -26.8 Wash St ---BYE---+0

#98 (0-1) -26.8 Stanford ---BYE---+0

#99 (0-1) -26.8 Arizona St ---BYE---+0

#100 (0-1) -26.8 California ---BYE---+0

#101 (0-1) -26.8 Ohio ---BYE---+0

#102 (0-1) -26.8 Colorado ---BYE---+0

#103 (0-1) -26.8 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0

#104 (0-1) -26.8 Utah St ---BYE---+0

#105 (0-1) -26.8 Wyoming ---BYE---+0

#106 (0-1) -26.8 San Diego St ---BYE---+0

#107 (0-1) -26.8 Fresno St ---BYE---+0

#108 (0-1) -26.8 UCLA ---BYE---+0

#109 (0-1) -26.8 Buffalo ---BYE---+0

#110 (0-1) -26.8 Toledo ---BYE---+0

#111 (0-1) -26.8 Arizona ---BYE---+0

#112 (0-1) -26.8 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0

#113 (0-1) -26.8 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0

#114 (0-1) -26.8 Oregon St ---BYE---+1

#115 (0-1) -26.8 Hawaii ---BYE----1

#116 (0-1) -26.8 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0

#117 (0-1) -26.8 Colorado St ---BYE---+1

#118 (0-1) -26.8 Central Michigan ---BYE----1

#119 (0-1) -26.8 Ball St ---BYE---+0

#120 (0-1) -26.8 Nevada ---BYE---+0

#121 (0-1) -26.8 Kent St ---BYE---+0

#122 (0-1) -26.8 San Jose St ---BYE---+0

#123 (0-1) -26.8 New Mexico ---BYE---+0

#124 (0-1) -26.8 UNLV ---BYE---+0

#125 (0-1) -26.8 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0

#126 (0-1) -26.8 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0

#127 (0-1) -26.8 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0

#128 (0-1) -26.8 Akron ---BYE---+0

#129 (0-1) -26.8 UConn ---BYE---+0

#130 (0-1) -26.8 UMass ---BYE---+0

100% (10-0)+W Georgia (1%)

100% (10-0)+W Alabama (19%)

100% (10-0)+W LSU (4%)

100% (11-0)+W Clemson (26%)

100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (4%)

100% (8-0)+W Penn State (5%)

100% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%)

100% (8-0)+W Ohio St (28%)

100% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (2%)

99% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (4%)

99% (10-0)+W Oklahoma (6%)

98% (9-0)+W UCF (20%)

97% (10-0)+W Memphis (1%)

97% (10-1)+W Clemson (31%)

96% (9-1)+W Alabama (23%)

96% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (12%)

96% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%)

95% (9-1)+W Auburn (1%)

94% (9-1)+W LSU (10%)

93% (10-1)+W Miami (3%)

92% (7-1)+W Penn State (9%)

90% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)

90% (11-0)+L  Clemson (7%)

85% (7-1)+W Iowa (3%)

84% (10-0)+L  Alabama (5%)

83% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (11%)

81% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (6%)

79% (7-1)+W Ohio St (17%)

73% (8-1)+W Baylor (1%)

73% (9-1)+W Florida (2%)

68% (10-0)+L  LSU (2%)

66% (9-1)      Alabama (10%)

65% (11-0)+L  Miami (1%)

65% (8-1)+W TCU (1%)

64% (8-0)+L  Penn State (3%)

63% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (9%)

61% (10-0)+L  Georgia (2%)

59% (9-1)      Auburn (3%)

56% (9-2)+W Clemson (7%)

54% (10-1)      Notre Dame (2%)

50% (7-1)      Michigan (6%)

48% (8-0)      BYU (11%)

47% (9-1)+W Oklahoma (16%)

46% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (6%)

46% (8-0)+L  Ohio St (8%)

45% (9-1)      LSU (8%)

44% (9-1)+W Texas (4%)

44% (8-0)+L  Wisconsin (8%)

43% (7-1)      Penn State (13%)

41% (10-1)      Miami (3%)

40% (8-2)+W Alabama (5%)

40% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (2%)

40% (8-0)+L  Iowa (2%)

36% (9-2)+W Miami (2%)

29% (7-1)      Iowa (3%)

29% (10-0)+L  Florida (1%)

25% (8-1)+W UCF (29%)

25% (10-1)+L  Clemson (9%)

23% (9-1)+W Memphis (7%)

23% (8-0)+W Marshall (1%)

22% (7-1)      Ohio St (19%)

22% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (18%)

22% (8-2)+W LSU (3%)

21% (10-1)+W Navy (1%)

21% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma (4%)

20% (9-1)      Florida (1%)

19% (7-1)      Minnesota (1%)

18% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%)

17% (11-0)+W Louisiana (6%)

16% (9-1)+L  Auburn (1%)

16% (7-1)      Wisconsin (4%)

15% (10-0)+L  Memphis (2%)

15% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (3%)

14% (9-1)+L  North Carolina (2%)

14% (8-0)+W FAU (19%)

14% (8-2)+W Georgia (9%)

13% (10-0)+L  Texas (1%)

12% (9-0)+L  UCF (6%)

12% (10-1)+L  Miami (9%)

11% (9-1)+L  Alabama (6%)

11% (6-2)+W Penn State (1%)

9% (11-0)+W La Tech (1%)

8% (6-2)+W Ohio St (1%)

8% (9-2)      Clemson (7%)

7% (8-2)+W Florida (3%)

6% (6-2)+W Wisconsin (5%)

6% (8-1)      UCF (1%)

6% (9-2)      Boston College (4%)

6% (6-2)+W Iowa (2%)

5% (9-2)      Notre Dame (16%)

4% (7-1)+L  Michigan (2%)

4% (7-2)+W Baylor (4%)

4% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (8%)

3% (8-2)      North Carolina (8%)

3% (9-1)+L  Georgia (12%)

3% (7-2)+W TCU (3%)

3% (8-2)      Miss St (1%)

3% (8-2)      Alabama (16%)

3% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (13%)

3% (9-1)+L  LSU (5%)

2% (11-0)      Army (1%)

2% (8-2)+W Houston (1%)

2% (9-2)      Miami (21%)

2% (8-2)      Auburn (18%)

2% (8-2)+W Texas (8%)

1% (9-2)+L  Clemson (3%)

1% (7-1)+L  Penn State (6%)

1% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (14%)

1% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (9%)

1% (8-2)+L  North Carolina (3%)

1% (8-2)+W Memphis (7%)

1% (7-2)+W UCF (9%)

0% (9-2)+L  Boston College (3%)

0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (7%)

0% (8-2)      Houston (3%)

0% (8-2)      LSU (27%)

0% (9-1)+L  Florida (7%)

0% (9-2)+L  Miami (8%)

0% (7-1)+L  Wisconsin (18%)

0% (6-2)      Michigan (29%)

0% (8-2)      Georgia (7%)

0% (9-1)+L  Memphis (10%)

0% (6-2)      Penn State (32%)

0% (7-3)+W Oklahoma St (2%)

0% (7-1)+L  Iowa (11%)

0% (8-1)+L  Baylor (3%)

0% (8-3)      Clemson (3%)

0% (6-2)      Indiana (3%)

0% (7-1)      BYU (36%)

0% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (5%)

0% (7-1)+L  Ohio St (5%)

0% (8-2)      Texas A*M (5%)

0% (8-2)      Oklahoma St (6%)

0% (7-3)      Alabama (7%)

0% (8-3)      Notre Dame (14%)

0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma (9%)

0% (10-1)+W App St (10%)

0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (16%)

0% (7-3)      North Carolina (23%)

0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (23%)

0% (7-1)+W FAU (26%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (25%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (31%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (40%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (9%)

97% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (22%)

97% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (48%)

94% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)

84% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (46%)

73% 1-loss at large ACC (23%)

59% 1-loss at large SEC (36%)

53% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (34%)

49% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (18%)

37% 1-loss at large Big Ten (75%)

25% 1-loss at large Big 12 (8%)

24% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (41%)

20% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (22%)

17% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (7%)

14% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (23%)

11% 1-loss at large AAC (11%)

10% 2-loss at large ACC (112%)

8% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (12%)

5% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (1%)

2% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (44%)

2% 2-loss at large SEC (122%)

0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (27%)

0% 2-loss at large Big Ten (190%)

0% 3-loss at large ACC (160%)

0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (59%)

0% 3-loss CHAMP Big 12 (10%)

0% 2-loss at large AAC (72%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (30%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (37%)

0% 3-loss at large SEC (169%)

Playoff %

1) 71.44% Clemson

2) 56.48% Alabama

3) 50.65% Ohio St

4) 30.86% Notre Dame

5) 28.18% UCF

6) 23.5% Penn State

7) 20.56% LSU

8) 18.86% Wisconsin

9) 15.13% Oklahoma

10) 11.26% Georgia

11) 9.48% Oklahoma St

12) 9.02% Michigan

13) 8.91% Miami

14) 6.36% Iowa

15) 5.61% BYU

16) 5.35% Auburn

17) 4.27% Memphis

18) 3.22% Texas

19) 2.93% Virginia Tech

20) 2.87% Florida

21) 2.87% FAU

22) 1.85% Baylor

23) 1.83% North Carolina

24) 1.33% TCU

25) 1.15% Louisiana

26) 0.85% Minnesota

27) 0.83% Boston College

28) 0.54% Houston

29) 0.41% Marshall

30) 0.39% Texas A*M

31) 0.37% Navy

32) 0.24% Indiana

33) 0.2% Nebraska

34) 0.16% Troy

35) 0.15% Miss St

36) 0.15% Pittsburgh

37) 0.15% Texas Tech

38) 0.15% La Tech

39) 0.14% Temple

40) 0.13% Illinois

41) 0.12% Arkansas

42) 0.11% Rutgers

43) 0.09% South Carolina

44) 0.09% Cincinnati

45) 0.08% West Virginia

46) 0.07% Tennessee

47) 0.07% Kentucky

48) 0.06% Mich St

49) 0.06% East Carolina

50) 0.05% Ole Miss

51) 0.05% Maryland

52) 0.04% Purdue

53) 0.04% SMU

54) 0.03% Kansas St

55) 0.03% Army

56) 0.02% Missouri

57) 0.02% Vanderbilt

58) 0.02% Georgia Tech

59) 0.02% Northwestern

60) 0.02% Kansas

61) 0.02% Rice

62) 0.01% Florida St

63) 0.01% Louisville

64) 0.01% Iowa St

65) 0.01% UTSA

66) 0.01% Ga Southern

67) 0.01% App St

Top G5 Champ %

1) 49.84% UCF

2) 13.36% Memphis

3) 12.79% FAU

4) 6.45% Navy

5) 6.16% Louisiana

6) 2.35% App St

7) 2.28% Houston

8) 1.4% Marshall

9) 1.3% La Tech

10) 1.04% Troy

11) 0.72% Cincinnati

12) 0.71% SMU

13) 0.68% Temple

14) 0.22% Tulane

15) 0.16% Arkansas St

16) 0.15% East Carolina

17) 0.07% Tulsa

18) 0.07% Ga Southern

19) 0.06% Texas St

20) 0.05% USF

21) 0.05% Rice

22) 0.03% UTSA

23) 0.03% FIU

24) 0.01% Georgia St

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*

86.77% Clemson (353/550) *1783*

70.45% Alabama (1609/2045) *655*

65.29% Ohio St (1280/1792) *567*

57.76% Oregon (0/0) *0*

54.4% UCF (38/94) *418*

46.21% Notre Dame (601/1198) *1693*

42.94% Oklahoma (20/50) *336*

35.32% LSU (1391/1995) *345*

31.73% Penn State (1109/2025) *405*

31.51% Oklahoma St (43/110) *315*

30.11% Wisconsin (284/580) *614*

27.26% Georgia (184/315) *365*

25.53% USC (0/0) *0*

17.68% Miami (471/1554) *599*

16.79% Texas (20/48) *130*

15.74% Arizona St (0/0) *0*

15.11% Michigan (751/1545) *229*

14.95% Memphis (15/49) *144*

13.05% Auburn (724/1348) *189*

12.79% FAU (0/5) *0*

12.1% Iowa (195/467) *226*

9.4% Florida (107/234) *133*

8.47% Baylor (10/39) *86*

6.81% TCU (5/35) *59*

6.46% Navy (1/6) *0*

6.27% Virginia Tech (151/683) *260*

6.16% Louisiana (0/1) *0*

3.93% North Carolina (113/479) *161*

2.78% Houston (12/54) *38*

2.35% App St (0/0) *0*

2.32% Boston College (73/393) *94*

2.09% Minnesota (62/233) *29*

1.43% BYU (139/1285) *4*

1.41% Texas A*M (79/220) *22*

1.4% Marshall (0/13) *0*

1.3% Kansas St (0/0) *0*

1.3% La Tech (0/0) *0*

1.06% Troy (2/11) *0*

1.01% Iowa St (0/0) *0*

0.92% California (0/0) *0*

0.81% Cincinnati (1/7) *8*

0.77% Temple (0/5) *9*

0.74% SMU (1/9) *2*

0.58% Nebraska (14/67) *10*

0.5% Miss St (30/72) *9*

0.5% Indiana (21/97) *5*

0.48% West Virginia (0/1) *0*

0.47% Pittsburgh (19/63) *17*

0.41% Kansas (0/0) *0*

0.41% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*

0.28% Kentucky (2/16) *1*

0.28% Mich St (13/31) *6*

0.26% South Carolina (1/8) *3*

0.26% Missouri (2/8) *1*

0.23% Tulane (1/6) *0*

0.22% Arkansas (12/17) *1*

0.2% East Carolina (0/0) *5*

0.17% Tennessee (5/7) *0*

0.17% Illinois (4/8) *1*

0.16% NC State (5/37) *5*

0.16% Arkansas St (0/0) *0*

0.15% Ole Miss (8/9) *1*

0.15% Northwestern (3/11) *3*

0.14% Rutgers (3/4) *1*

0.12% Vanderbilt (2/5) *4*

0.1% Purdue (2/7) *2*

0.09% Georgia Tech (2/4) *1*

0.09% Maryland (2/10) *3*

0.07% Tulsa (0/0) *0*

0.07% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*

0.06% Texas St (0/0) *0*

0.05% Colorado (0/0) *0*

0.05% USF (0/0) *0*

0.05% Rice (0/0) *0*

0.04% Florida St (1/1) *1*

0.03% Louisville (1/7) *1*

0.03% UTSA (0/0) *0*

0.03% FIU (0/0) *0*

0.02% Army (2/17) *0*

0.02% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*

0.01% Syracuse (0/1) *0*

0.01% Virginia (1/9) *0*

0.01% Duke (0/0) *1*

0.01% Georgia St (0/0) *0*

Crayton · 09-26-2020 12:07 AM

Quick Sim before Week 4 games, with Big Ten (only) returning to play. This seemed to be the more interesting part of the last thread.

After December 5th, the top of the standings look like this. All CCGs are set to Dec. 19th.

SEC
#1 Alabama (10-0; 366-209)
#3 LSU (9-1; 322-184) lost to Alabama 14-29
#10 Georgia (8-2; 302-192) lost to Alabama 10-62 and Florida 13-22
#11 Florida (8-2; 336-206) lost to A&M 7-26 and LSU 20-21

ACC
#2 Clemson (10-0; 408-183)
#4 Miami (9-1; 410-227) lost to Clemson 31-32
#5 Notre Dame (8-1; 346-224) lost to Clemson 10-48

Big Ten
#6 Iowa (6-1; 234-133) lost to Minnesota 13-14
#7 Minnesota (6-1; 223-146) lost to Wisconsin 21-24
#8 Wisconsin (6-1; 223-149) lost to Michigan 27-31
#9 Ohio State (6-1; 246-149) lost to Penn State 21-36
#14 Penn State (5-2; 211-125) lost to Indiana 21-24 and Iowa 28-31
#16 Michigan (5-2; 205-142) lost to Minnesota 20-22 and Penn State 13-38

Big 12
#12 Oklahoma (7-2; 336-199) lost to Texas 20-23 and OK State 17-20
#13 Baylor (7-2; 256-180) lost to TCU 13-17 and Oklahoma 20-34

Top non-Autonomous teams
#21 BYU (7-1; 330-162) lost to Houston 23-26
#22 UCF (7-2, 6-2; 345-175) lost to Tulsa 24-27 and Houston 30-32
#23 Marshall (7-1, 5-1; 257-132) lost to La Tech 17-24
#25 SMU (9-2, 6-2; 366-232) lost to Navy 31-32 and Tulsa 21-28
#27 FAU (6-1, 6-1; 183-141) lost to Marshall 10-21

December 12th outcomes
Notre Dame beats Wake Forest 39-20... but can they jump the Hurricanes for #4?
Penn State slaughters MSU 72-14... but Michigan fails to overcome OSU 35-44
Iowa defeats Wisconsin 23-20
Minnesota falls to Nebraska 14-21... giving the division to Iowa

December 19th games // results
#1 Alabama (10-0) vs. #12 Florida (8-2) // 22-21
#2 Clemson (10-0) vs. #5 Miami (10-1) // 54-21
#4 Iowa (7-1) vs. #7 Ohio State (7-1) // 23-20
#3 LSU (9-1) vs. #6 Notre Dame (10-1) // don't you wish

Playoffs // results
#1 Alabama vs. #4 LSU // 21-20
#2 Clemson vs. #3 Iowa // 29-28
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Clemson // 33-24

addendum: UCF climbed to #12 following a 45-14 triumph to win the American and ascend to the NY6. Tie-breakers are still am enigma for these divisionless structures; and if there are an uneven number of games within divisions... don't get me started.

Crayton · 09-28-2020 06:06 PM

While losses knocked LSU and Oklahoma each to about 1% playoff odds, the big riser this week was from an unexpected corner. Miami gained 6% chance toward a playoff berth, while Alabama, Texas, OK State and Memphis each grabbed 3%.

But the big surprise was BYU's grab of a playoff spot 1/5 of the time. Winning a second game by an exceptional margin improved the likelihood that the Cougars' wins are no fluke. Still, they'll have to win out (30% chance; 50% if you follow ESPN) to be considered, and they'll need fewer than 4 Power teams to finish with more than 1 loss.

Until the MW/P12/MAC release schedules, they'll be excluded from the postseason

Non-P5 entrances into NY6 (including at-larges)
54% UCF
18% Memphis
12% FAU
8% BYU
7% Louisiana
6% Navy
3% Houston
2% Cincinnati
1% Marshall
1% App St
<1% anyone else
full data:

Code:

Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)

#1 (1-0) 24.2 Alabama (W 38-19 vs. Missouri)+2

#2 (2-0) 46.7 Clemson ---BYE----1

#3 (0-0) 29.3 Ohio St ---BYE---+1

#4 (1-0) 15.9 Georgia (W 37-10 vs. Arkansas)+2

#5 (0-0) 19.1 Penn State ---BYE---+2

#6 (1-0) 13.5 Auburn (W 29-13 vs. Kentucky)+3

#7 (2-0) 32.7 Notre Dame ---BYE----5

#8 (3-0) 27.6 Miami (W 52-10 vs. Florida St)+9

#9 (0-0) 17.1 Wisconsin ---BYE----1

#10 (0-0) 15.9 Michigan ---BYE---+0

#11 (0-1) 15.8 LSU (L 34-44 vs. Miss St)-6

#12 (1-0) 10.1 Florida (W 51-35 vs. Ole Miss)-1

#13 (2-0) 28.2 UCF (W 51-28 vs. East Carolina)+3

#14 (2-0) 13.1 Oklahoma St (W 27-13 vs. West Virginia)+1

#15 (0-0) 12.7 Iowa ---BYE----3

#16 (1-0) 5 Miss St (W 44-34 vs. LSU)+2

#17 (1-0) 5.1 Texas A*M (W 17-12 vs. Vanderbilt)-3

#18 (2-0) 14.7 Texas (W 63-56 vs. Texas Tech)+1

#19 (2-0) 32.2 Memphis ---BYE---+1

#20 (1-0) 23 Virginia Tech (W 45-24 vs. NC State)+4

#21 (1-1) 20.3 Oklahoma (L 35-38 vs. Kansas St)-8

#22 (1-0) 9.3 Baylor (W 47-14 vs. Kansas)+1

#23 (0-0) 5.4 Minnesota ---BYE----1

#24 (1-0) 21.8 North Carolina ---BYE---+4

#25 (2-0) 16.9 Boston College (W 24-21 vs. Texas St)+6

#26 (3-0) 18.3 Pittsburgh (W 23-20 vs. Louisville)+13

#27 (3-0) 20.5 Louisiana (W 20-18 vs. Ga Southern)+11

#28 (0-0) 1.1 Indiana ---BYE----1

#29 (1-1) 9.7 Kansas St (W 38-35 vs. Oklahoma)+12

#30 (1-1) 17.9 Navy ---BYE---+2

#31 (0-1) 0.4 Kentucky (L 13-29 vs. Auburn)-10

#32 (0-1) 0.3 Missouri (L 19-38 vs. Alabama)-7

#33 (1-0) -2.1 Tennessee (W 31-27 vs. South Carolina)+1

#34 (2-0) 20.2 Cincinnati (W 24-10 vs. Army)+11

#35 (2-0) 37 BYU (W 48-7 vs. Troy)+17

#36 (0-0) 0.4 Nebraska ---BYE----6

#37 (1-1) 7.2 Iowa St (W 37-34 vs. TCU)+5

#38 (0-0) 0.4 Mich St ---BYE----5

#39 (0-0) 22.3 FAU ---BYE----2

#40 (2-1) 23.4 App St (W 52-21 vs. FCS)-4

#41 (0-0) 17.6 Houston ---BYE----1

#42 (1-0) 23.7 Virginia (W 38-20 vs. Duke)+13

#43 (0-1) 7.4 TCU (L 34-37 vs. Iowa St)-17

#44 (0-1) -1.5 South Carolina (L 27-31 vs. Tennessee)-15

#45 (0-0) -2.9 Northwestern ---BYE----2

#46 (0-0) 14.7 Temple ---BYE---+0

#47 (0-1) -4.3 Ole Miss (L 35-51 vs. Florida)-12

#48 (1-2) 14.5 Syracuse (W 37-20 vs. Georgia Tech)+12

#49 (0-2) 20.4 Florida St (L 10-52 vs. Miami)-5

#50 (2-1) 18.8 Tulane (W 66-24 vs. Southern Miss)+8

#51 (1-1) 15.4 NC State (L 24-45 vs. Virginia Tech)-4

#52 (0-2) 23.6 Wake Forest ---BYE---+2

#53 (0-0) -3.3 Purdue ---BYE----2

#54 (0-0) -6.2 Maryland ---BYE----4

#55 (2-1) 17 SMU (W 50-7 vs. FCS)+4

#56 (1-2) 16.9 Louisville (L 20-23 vs. Pittsburgh)-8

#57 (1-2) 10.2 Georgia Tech (L 20-37 vs. Syracuse)-8

#58 (1-1) 5.7 West Virginia (L 13-27 vs. Oklahoma St)-1

#59 (1-1) 17.8 Troy (L 7-48 vs. BYU)-6

#60 (1-1) 16.9 Arkansas St ---BYE---+4

#61 (2-0) 15.7 La Tech (W 66-38 vs. FCS)+6

#62 (2-0) 18.3 Marshall ---BYE---+7

#63 (0-1) -13.5 Arkansas (L 10-37 vs. Georgia)-7

#64 (0-1) 10.1 Tulsa ---BYE---+1

#65 (0-1) -10.9 Vanderbilt (L 12-17 vs. Texas A*M)-4

#66 (0-3) 12.9 Duke (L 20-38 vs. Virginia)-4

#67 (1-1) 0.7 Texas Tech (L 56-63 vs. Texas)-4

#68 (0-0) -11.2 Illinois ---BYE----2

#69 (2-1) 34.4 Army (L 10-24 vs. Cincinnati)-1

#71 (2-0) 16.5 Liberty (W 36-34 vs. FIU)+16

#72 (1-1) 6.1 USF ---BYE---+0

#73 (1-1) 9.6 Ga Southern (L 18-20 vs. Louisiana)-3

#74 (0-0) -19.9 Rutgers ---BYE---+0

#75 (0-2) 19 WKU ---BYE---+1

#76 (2-1) 8.8 UAB (W 42-10 vs. South Alabama)+9

#77 (0-1) 1.4 Georgia St ---BYE---+1

#78 (0-2) -11.1 Kansas (L 14-47 vs. Baylor)-3

#79 (0-3) 8.4 Middle Tennessee (L 35-37 vs. UTSA)-6

#80 (0-1) 6.6 Charlotte ---BYE---+0

#81 (3-0) 3.1 UTSA (W 37-35 vs. Middle Tennessee)+5

#82 (0-3) 14.6 Southern Miss (L 24-66 vs. Tulane)-3

#83 (1-1) 6.8 North Texas ---BYE---+0

#84 (0-1) -2.2 East Carolina (L 28-51 vs. UCF)-3

#85 (0-1) 16.8 FIU (L 34-36 vs. Liberty)-3

#86 (1-2) 0.8 South Alabama (L 10-42 vs. UAB)-9

#87 (1-2) 1 Texas St (L 21-24 vs. Boston College)+1

#88 (0-3) 1.2 La Monroe (L 6-31 vs. UTEP)-4

#89 (0-0) 0.1 Rice ---BYE---+1

#90 (0-1) 9 Air Force ---BYE----1

#91 (2-1) -5.1 UTEP (W 31-6 vs. La Monroe)+0

#92 (0-1) -26.7 Washington ---BYE---+0

#93 (0-1) -26.7 Utah ---BYE---+0

#94 (0-1) -26.7 Oregon ---BYE---+0

#95 (0-1) -26.7 Boise St ---BYE---+0

#96 (0-1) -26.7 USC ---BYE---+0

#97 (0-1) -26.7 Wash St ---BYE---+0

#98 (0-1) -26.7 Stanford ---BYE---+0

#99 (0-1) -26.7 Arizona St ---BYE---+0

#100 (0-1) -26.7 California ---BYE---+0

#101 (0-1) -26.7 Ohio ---BYE---+0

#102 (0-1) -26.7 Colorado ---BYE---+0

#103 (0-1) -26.7 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0

#104 (0-1) -26.7 Utah St ---BYE---+0

#105 (0-1) -26.7 Wyoming ---BYE---+0

#106 (0-1) -26.7 San Diego St ---BYE---+0

#107 (0-1) -26.7 Fresno St ---BYE---+0

#108 (0-1) -26.7 UCLA ---BYE---+0

#109 (0-1) -26.7 Buffalo ---BYE---+0

#110 (0-1) -26.7 Toledo ---BYE---+0

#111 (0-1) -26.7 Arizona ---BYE---+0

#112 (0-1) -26.7 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0

#113 (0-1) -26.7 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0

#114 (0-1) -26.7 Hawaii ---BYE---+1

#115 (0-1) -26.7 Oregon St ---BYE----1

#116 (0-1) -26.7 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0

#117 (0-1) -26.7 Colorado St ---BYE---+0

#118 (0-1) -26.7 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0

#119 (0-1) -26.7 Ball St ---BYE---+0

#120 (0-1) -26.7 Nevada ---BYE---+0

#121 (0-1) -26.7 Kent St ---BYE---+0

#122 (0-1) -26.7 San Jose St ---BYE---+0

#123 (0-1) -26.7 New Mexico ---BYE---+0

#124 (0-1) -26.7 UNLV ---BYE---+0

#125 (0-1) -26.7 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0

#126 (0-1) -26.7 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0

#127 (0-1) -26.7 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0

#128 (0-1) -26.7 Akron ---BYE---+0

#129 (0-1) -26.7 UConn ---BYE---+0

#130 (0-1) -26.7 UMass ---BYE---+0

100% (10-0)+W Georgia (1%)

100% (10-0)+W Alabama (21%)

100% (11-0)+W Clemson (24%)

100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (3%)

100% (8-0)+W Penn State (5%)

100% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%)

100% (8-0)+W Ohio St (26%)

100% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (4%)

100% (10-0)+W Texas (1%)

100% (10-0)+W Memphis (2%)

99% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (3%)

99% (9-0)+W UCF (16%)

98% (10-1)+W Clemson (30%)

97% (10-1)+W Virginia Tech (1%)

96% (10-1)+W Miami (5%)

96% (9-1)+W Alabama (27%)

95% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (10%)

94% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)

94% (9-1)+W Auburn (2%)

93% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%)

93% (11-0)+L  Clemson (6%)

91% (7-1)+W Penn State (9%)

85% (10-0)+L  Alabama (6%)

83% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (5%)

79% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (10%)

79% (7-1)+W Iowa (3%)

77% (11-0)+L  Miami (2%)

77% (8-0)+L  Michigan (1%)

76% (7-1)+W Ohio St (18%)

74% (8-0)      BYU (32%)

73% (10-0)+L  Georgia (1%)

71% (8-0)+L  Penn State (3%)

68% (9-1)      Alabama (3%)

64% (9-1)+W Florida (3%)

60% (8-1)+W Baylor (2%)

60% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (12%)

55% (9-2)+W Clemson (8%)

55% (10-1)      Miami (2%)

52% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (1%)

51% (9-1)      Auburn (4%)

50% (9-1)+W Memphis (9%)

49% (10-1)+W Navy (1%)

48% (10-1)      Notre Dame (3%)

48% (8-0)+L  Iowa (2%)

48% (7-1)      Michigan (6%)

48% (9-1)+W Texas (8%)

46% (8-0)+L  Ohio St (7%)

43% (9-1)+W Oklahoma (2%)

42% (8-1)+W UCF (28%)

40% (8-0)+L  Wisconsin (6%)

40% (7-1)      Penn State (13%)

40% (9-2)+W Miami (4%)

36% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (2%)

35% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (4%)

29% (8-2)+W Alabama (8%)

28% (10-1)+L  Clemson (9%)

27% (10-0)+L  Texas (1%)

26% (9-1)+W Cincinnati (1%)

24% (9-0)+W Marshall (2%)

24% (9-0)+L  UCF (5%)

24% (10-0)+L  Memphis (2%)

23% (10-0)+L  Florida (2%)

22% (7-1)      Ohio St (18%)

21% (7-0)+W FAU (21%)

20% (7-1)      Wisconsin (4%)

19% (8-2)+W Auburn (2%)

18% (10-1)+L  Miami (12%)

17% (7-2)+W Houston (1%)

17% (11-0)+W Louisiana (11%)

17% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (4%)

16% (7-1)      Iowa (2%)

16% (6-2)+W Michigan (1%)

15% (8-2)+W Georgia (8%)

15% (7-1)      Minnesota (1%)

14% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (15%)

13% (9-1)+L  North Carolina (2%)

12% (8-2)+W LSU (1%)

11% (9-1)+L  Alabama (8%)

9% (6-2)+W Penn State (1%)

8% (9-2)      Pittsburgh (1%)

8% (9-1)+L  Auburn (3%)

6% (9-1)      Florida (1%)

5% (9-2)      Clemson (8%)

5% (6-2)+W Ohio St (1%)

5% (6-2)+W Wisconsin (5%)

4% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (9%)

4% (9-1)+L  Georgia (11%)

3% (9-2)      Boston College (3%)

3% (9-2)      Miami (21%)

3% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (17%)

3% (8-1)+L  Houston (1%)

3% (7-2)+W Baylor (5%)

2% (9-1)+L  Miss St (1%)

2% (7-1)      BYU (46%)

2% (8-2)+W Memphis (8%)

2% (6-2)+W Iowa (3%)

2% (9-2)      Notre Dame (20%)

2% (8-2)      North Carolina (7%)

2% (7-1)+L  Penn State (6%)

2% (8-2)+W Kansas St (1%)

2% (9-2)+W Navy (5%)

2% (8-2)      Alabama (10%)

1% (8-2)+W Florida (4%)

1% (7-1)+L  Michigan (3%)

1% (9-2)+L  Clemson (2%)

1% (7-2)+W UCF (11%)

1% (8-2)      Auburn (22%)

1% (8-2)+W Texas (12%)

1% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (6%)

1% (9-2)+L  Miami (10%)

0% (9-2)+L  Boston College (2%)

0% (8-2)      Georgia (9%)

0% (6-2)      Nebraska (1%)

0% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (7%)

0% (8-2)      Texas A*M (4%)

0% (7-1)+L  Iowa (11%)

0% (8-2)      Miss St (10%)

0% (8-1)+L  UCF (10%)

0% (8-2)+W Cincinnati (1%)

0% (9-1)+L  Memphis (9%)

0% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (7%)

0% (6-2)      Michigan (28%)

0% (9-1)+L  Texas (7%)

0% (9-1)+L  Florida (10%)

0% (8-2)+L  North Carolina (2%)

0% (10-1)+L  Navy (2%)

0% (7-3)+W Georgia (3%)

0% (8-2)      LSU (9%)

0% (7-1)+L  Wisconsin (17%)

0% (6-2)      Penn State (31%)

0% (7-1)+L  Ohio St (6%)

0% (8-2)      Memphis (12%)

0% (8-1)+W Marshall (6%)

0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (7%)

0% (8-3)      Miami (23%)

0% (6-1)+W FAU (25%)

0% (8-2)      Florida (13%)

0% (6-2)      Wisconsin (18%)

0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (25%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (24%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (29%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (38%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (5%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (18%)

97% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (48%)

92% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (42%)

82% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (46%)

74% 1-loss at large ACC (22%)

58% 1-loss at large SEC (23%)

54% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (26%)

46% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (20%)

44% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (41%)

36% 1-loss at large Big Ten (69%)

34% 1-loss at large Big 12 (4%)

21% 1-loss at large AAC (10%)

21% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (24%)

17% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (26%)

17% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (11%)

9% 2-loss at large ACC (118%)

5% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (13%)

3% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (1%)

2% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (29%)

2% 2-loss at large SEC (118%)

2% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (46%)

0% 2-loss at large Big Ten (187%)

0% 2-loss at large AAC (74%)

0% 3-loss at large ACC (166%)

0% 3-loss CHAMP SEC (5%)

0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (37%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (37%)

Playoff %

1) 69.06% Clemson

2) 59.66% Alabama

3) 48.86% Ohio St

4) 30.49% UCF

5) 25.76% BYU

6) 24.36% Notre Dame

7) 22.29% Penn State

8) 16.78% Wisconsin

9) 14.06% Miami

10) 12.13% Oklahoma St

11) 12.11% Georgia

12) 8.67% Michigan

13) 7.54% Memphis

14) 7.13% Auburn

15) 6.21% Texas

16) 5.18% Iowa

17) 4.66% Virginia Tech

18) 4.58% FAU

19) 3.91% Florida

20) 2.05% Baylor

21) 2.01% Louisiana

22) 1.59% North Carolina

23) 1.36% Miss St

24) 1.16% LSU

25) 1.04% Oklahoma

26) 0.92% Houston

27) 0.87% Minnesota

28) 0.78% Navy

29) 0.63% Boston College

30) 0.53% Texas A*M

31) 0.53% Cincinnati

32) 0.51% Marshall

33) 0.33% Pittsburgh

34) 0.26% Indiana

35) 0.21% Nebraska

36) 0.19% Temple

37) 0.18% La Tech

38) 0.16% Kansas St

39) 0.14% Mich St

40) 0.11% Rutgers

41) 0.11% TCU

42) 0.11% Tulane

43) 0.09% Tennessee

44) 0.09% Virginia

45) 0.09% Illinois

46) 0.09% SMU

47) 0.08% Maryland

48) 0.08% Iowa St

49) 0.06% Northwestern

50) 0.05% Vanderbilt

51) 0.03% Purdue

52) 0.02% Arkansas

53) 0.02% Ole Miss

54) 0.02% West Virginia

55) 0.01% South Carolina

56) 0.01% Kentucky

57) 0.01% Missouri

58) 0.01% Georgia Tech

59) 0.01% East Carolina

60) 0.01% UTSA

Top G5 Champ %

1) 47.62% UCF

2) 15.43% Memphis

3) 12.75% FAU

4) 7.49% Louisiana

5) 6.71% Navy

6) 2.23% Cincinnati

7) 2.22% Houston

8) 1.5% Marshall

9) 1% App St

10) 0.75% La Tech

11) 0.72% Temple

12) 0.72% SMU

13) 0.4% Tulane

14) 0.16% Troy

15) 0.09% Tulsa

16) 0.05% USF

17) 0.05% UTSA

18) 0.04% Arkansas St

19) 0.02% East Carolina

20) 0.01% UAB

21) 0.01% Charlotte

22) 0.01% Georgia St

23) 0.01% Ga Southern

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*

86.98% Clemson (504/647) *1831*

73.43% Alabama (741/937) *827*

64.52% Ohio St (1249/1638) *534*

54.99% Oregon (0/0) *0*

54% UCF (47/101) *591*

39.68% Oklahoma St (27/72) *293*

39.66% Notre Dame (800/1314) *1214*

31.86% Penn State (1168/1827) *391*

29.25% Miami (788/1493) *1050*

29.19% Wisconsin (308/507) *482*

27.79% Georgia (271/432) *478*

27.51% Texas (20/66) *181*

26.73% Arizona St (0/0) *0*

18.55% Memphis (53/106) *259*

17.05% Auburn (893/1541) *199*

14.61% Michigan (705/1306) *210*

14.61% USC (0/0) *0*

13.4% Florida (140/268) *171*

12.87% Oklahoma (8/19) *26*

12.82% FAU (4/4) *3*

11.48% Iowa (167/372) *193*

11.06% Baylor (13/36) *81*

10.2% Virginia Tech (302/734) *361*

8.77% BYU (863/4086) *14*

7.86% Kansas St (0/1) *1*

7.49% Louisiana (0/1) *0*

6.8% Navy (2/9) *7*

5.14% Iowa St (0/0) *6*

4.78% LSU (150/268) *57*

4.57% North Carolina (119/352) *204*

4.41% Miss St (245/569) *57*

3.22% California (0/0) *0*

3.05% Houston (25/124) *58*

2.53% Cincinnati (7/39) *23*

2.06% Minnesota (50/167) *43*

1.91% Boston College (91/289) *54*

1.72% Texas A*M (86/215) *24*

1.56% TCU (0/0) *3*

1.51% Marshall (0/6) *1*

1% App St (0/0) *0*

0.95% Pittsburgh (36/136) *24*

0.85% Temple (4/14) *9*

0.83% SMU (3/13) *8*

0.75% La Tech (0/0) *0*

0.66% Indiana (39/94) *4*

0.58% Nebraska (16/38) *7*

0.44% Tulane (2/13) *2*

0.43% Colorado (0/0) *0*

0.35% Tennessee (7/15) *1*

0.3% Mich St (13/31) *5*

0.28% Kansas (0/0) *0*

0.22% West Virginia (0/1) *1*

0.21% Maryland (10/16) *1*

0.19% Illinois (2/5) *0*

0.19% Northwestern (1/5) *3*

0.19% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*

0.16% Troy (0/0) *0*

0.15% Rutgers (7/8) *0*

0.14% Arkansas (3/4) *3*

0.13% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*

0.13% Ole Miss (2/3) *2*

0.12% Virginia (4/29) *1*

0.11% Kentucky (3/5) *0*

0.11% Missouri (0/0) *0*

0.09% Purdue (1/7) *0*

0.09% Tulsa (0/0) *0*

0.06% Georgia Tech (0/1) *0*

0.05% South Carolina (0/1) *0*

0.05% USF (0/0) *0*

0.05% UTSA (0/0) *0*

0.04% Arkansas St (0/0) *0*

0.03% East Carolina (0/0) *1*

0.02% NC State (1/5) *1*

0.02% Washington (0/0) *0*

0.01% Syracuse (0/2) *0*

0.01% UAB (0/0) *0*

0.01% Charlotte (0/0) *0*

0.01% Georgia St (0/0) *0*

0.01% Ga Southern (0/0) *0*

0.01% Coastal Carolina (0/0) *0*

Crayton · 09-28-2020 08:55 PM

Here is this week's sim. Three new faces in the playoffs. Georgia suffers a familiar fate. Clemson fails to win the ACC, and the best G5 team doesn't even play for its conference championship. We start with the standings after the games on December 5th:

Big 12
#1 OK State (9-1, 8-1; 343-214) lost to Oklahoma 17-35
#23 Baylor (6-3, 6-3; 251-233) lost to OK State 21-47, Texas 28-47, Iowa St 16-40
#24 Oklahoma (7-3, 6-3; 318-203) lost to Iowa St 16-18 and Baylor 17-24
#27 Iowa St (6-4, 6-3; 241-206) lost to OK State 17-30, Kansas 21-23, Texas 17-20

SEC
#2 Georgia (9-1; 285-204) lost to South Carolina 27-36
#7 Alabama (8-2; 345-195) lost to Georgia 17-20 and LSU 17-24
#10 Florida (8-2; 272-193) lost to LSU 7-10 and Georgia 28-31
#18 Miss St (7-3; 288-234) lost to Kentucky 28-31, Alabama 10-54, and Georgia 21-28
#22 LSU (7-3; 203-176) lost to Missouri 23-24 and Texas A&M 7-29

ACC
#3 Clemson (10-1, 9-1; 505-169) lost to Notre Dame 17-26
#4 Miami (10-1, 9-1; 334-234) lost to Clemson 14-55
#11 Notre Dame (8-2, 7-2; 415-190) lost to FSU 28-32 and UNC 28-35

Big Ten
#5 Penn State (6-1; 254-123) lost to Indiana 17-18
#6 Michigan (6-1; 215-125) lost to Penn State 19-20
#9 Wisconsin (6-1; 209-171) lost to Michigan 20-45
#15 Ohio State (5-2; 218-160) lost to Penn State 16-31 and Maryland 21-22
#17 Michigan St (5-2; 223-172) lost to Michigan 17-31 and Ohio State 28-50
#20 Iowa (5-2; 216-170) lost to Michigan St 13-19 and Penn State 14-54

Top non-Autonomous teams
#8 Houston (7-2, 6-2; 294-208) lost to UCF 17-20 and Memphis 14-48
#12 BYU (7-1; 366-148) lost to Houston 20-39
#13 Navy (8-2, 7-1; 248-225) lost to Houston 17-19
#14 UCF (7-2, 6-2; 265-182) lost to Tulsa 21-24 and Memphis 14-28
#16 Louisiana (9-2, 7-1; 376-198) lost to App St 16-23 and UAB 21-24
#19 Temple (6-2, 6-2; 220-190) lost to Navy 17-24 and UCF 24-40
#21 App St (9-2, 7-1; 341-199) lost to Georgia Southern 14-26
#25 Marshall (7-1, 5-1; 258-166) lost to La Tech 24-47
#28 La Tech (9-2, 7-1; 379-248) lost to BYU 20-21 and Rice 24-41
#29 FAU (6-1, 6-1; 212-129) lost to Marshall 28-32

December 12th Outcomes
Notre Dame beats Wake Forest 34-21, but 2 conference losses exclude them from the CCG
Wisconsin tops Iowa, 26-24, to secure the West crown
Michigan loses again to Ohio State, 24-42, locking Penn State into the Big Ten Championship
Penn State goes ahead and blows out Michigan State, 54-17, as they head to meet Wisconsin
Rice upsets Marshall, 32-31, giving FAU the Conference USA East crown
Navy, headed to the American Championship Game, blows it against Army, 27-28

December 19th games // results
#1 Penn State (7-1) vs. #7 Wisconsin (7-1) // 40-17
#2 OK State (9-1) vs. #26 Iowa State (6-4) // 48-16
#3 Georgia (9-1) vs. #9 Alabama (8-2) // 10-29
#4 Clemson (10-1) vs. #5 Miami (10-1) // 27-38
#6 Michigan (6-2) vs. #27 Iowa (5-3) // 26-23
#8 Houston (7-2) vs. #10 Notre Dame (9-2) // nope
#14 Louisiana (9-2) vs. #21 App St (9-2) // 24-26
#15 UCF (7-2) vs. #18 Navy (8-3) // 22-21

Playoffs // results
#1 Miami vs. #4 Alabama // 10-14
#2 Penn State vs. #3 OK State // 16-19
#1 OK State vs. #2 Alabama // 17-32

Crayton · 10-04-2020 07:24 AM

As more schedules are released, the playoff outcomes continue to morph generously. This past weekend both the Mountain West and Pac-12 released their 8- and 7-game schedules, respectively. The computer thinks very poorly of a 6-1 record, so the Mountain West is the larger benefactor here, replacing the American and joining all 5 Power conferences as likely to place a team in the playoff if their champion is undefeated.

UCF, Memphis, Auburn, Texas, Baylor, and Mississippi State all fell yesterday, but the addition of two conferences meant that few teams in conferences-already-active made advancements in the playoff standings.

The two big gainers were OK State and Louisiana, +4% overall for each. OK State benefitted from both Oklahoma and Texas losing and seeing their chances of acing their schedule improve. Louisiana's game vs. App State was postponed, but the Sun Belt's out of conference prowess vis-a-vis the American, means being undefeated carries a higher (if still low) chance of cracking the Top 4.

G5 Playoff Odds in Hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff:
Total% TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
43.56% Boise St (309/726) *848*
37.37% Air Force (380/871) *908*
22.5% BYU (2240/5401) *10*
8.9% Louisiana (1/3) *1*
6.84% FAU (0/3) *0*
5.45% Utah St (39/197) *120*
4.97% Wyoming (13/84) *88*
4.87% San Diego St (10/98) *79*
3.36% Fresno St (0/23) *46*
3.33% UCF (5/8) *30*
2.83% SMU (3/9) *33*
2.35% Cincinnati (14/23) *26*
1.75% Houston (24/47) *37*
1.43% Marshall (0/14) *2*
1.34% Memphis (4/8) *21*

Code:

Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)

#1 (2-0) 18.6 Alabama (W 52-24 vs. Texas A*M)+0

#2 (3-0) 36.9 Clemson (W 41-23 vs. Virginia)+0

#3 (0-0) 22.8 Ohio St ---BYE---+0

#4 (2-0) 11.2 Georgia (W 27-6 vs. Auburn)+0

#5 (2-0) 23.7 Notre Dame ---BYE---+2

#6 (0-0) 12.6 Penn State ---BYE----1

#7 (0-0) 10.6 Wisconsin ---BYE---+2

#8 (1-1) 9.3 LSU (W 41-7 vs. Vanderbilt)+3

#9 (2-0) 4.2 Florida (W 38-24 vs. South Carolina)+3

#10 (3-0) 9.7 Oklahoma St (W 47-7 vs. Kansas)+4

#11 (3-0) 18.9 Miami ---BYE----3

#12 (2-0) 14.7 Virginia Tech (W 38-31 vs. Duke)+8

#13 (0-0) 9.4 Michigan ---BYE----3

#14 (0-0) 6.2 Iowa ---BYE---+1

#15 (0-0) 9.6 Washington ---BYE---+2

#16 (1-1) 5.5 Auburn (L 6-27 vs. Georgia)-10

#17 (1-1) -2.2 Texas A*M (L 24-52 vs. Alabama)+1

#18 (2-1) 17.6 UCF (L 26-34 vs. Tulsa)-5

#19 (0-0) 7.3 Utah ---BYE---+3

#20 (0-0) 21.4 Boise St ---BYE---+5

#21 (0-0) 5.9 Oregon ---BYE---+2

#22 (1-0) 19.6 Air Force (W 40-7 vs. Navy)+22

#23 (2-0) 18.7 North Carolina (W 26-22 vs. Boston College)+13

#24 (2-1) 4.1 Iowa St (W 37-30 vs. Oklahoma)+18

#25 (1-1) -3.8 Miss St (L 14-21 vs. Arkansas)-9

#26 (2-1) 8.6 Texas (L 31-33 vs. TCU)-7

#27 (2-0) -6.1 Tennessee (W 35-12 vs. Missouri)+8

#28 (3-0) 29.5 BYU (W 45-14 vs. La Tech)+11

#29 (2-1) 4.9 Kansas St (W 31-21 vs. Texas Tech)+1

#30 (0-0) -1.1 Minnesota ---BYE----3

#31 (1-1) 2.9 TCU (W 33-31 vs. Texas)+14

#32 (1-1) 22.4 Memphis ---BYE---+0

#33 (3-0) 14.1 Cincinnati (W 28-7 vs. USF)+7

#34 (3-0) 16.5 Louisiana ---BYE---+4

#35 (1-2) 13.8 Oklahoma (L 30-37 vs. Iowa St)-14

#36 (0-0) 2 USC ---BYE----8

#37 (0-0) -5.4 Indiana ---BYE----6

#38 (1-1) 3.4 Baylor (L 21-27 vs. West Virginia)-14

#39 (2-1) 9.1 Boston College (L 22-26 vs. North Carolina)-13

#40 (0-0) 1.3 Wash St ---BYE---+3

#41 (1-0) 13.2 FAU (W 21-17 vs. Charlotte)+6

#42 (4-0) 11.5 SMU (W 31-24 vs. Texas St)+7

#43 (0-0) -6.1 Nebraska ---BYE----2

#44 (2-1) 19.2 App St ---BYE---+4

#45 (1-2) 8.6 Navy (L 7-40 vs. Air Force)-16

#46 (0-0) -6.1 Mich St ---BYE---+0

#47 (0-0) 9.8 Houston ---BYE---+3

#48 (1-1) -10.5 Ole Miss (W 42-41 vs. Kentucky)+7

#49 (2-1) 6.7 NC State (W 30-29 vs. Pittsburgh)+14

#50 (1-1) 16.9 Virginia (L 23-41 vs. Clemson)+2

#51 (3-1) 9.5 Pittsburgh (L 29-30 vs. NC State)-14

#52 (0-0) -2.2 Stanford ---BYE----1

#53 (0-0) -3.9 Arizona St ---BYE---+0

#54 (0-0) 8.8 Utah St ---BYE---+8

#55 (2-1) 1.9 West Virginia (W 27-21 vs. Baylor)+15

#56 (2-1) 10.9 Tulane ---BYE---+4

#57 (0-0) 6.4 Temple ---BYE---+0

#58 (1-1) 5.3 Tulsa (W 34-26 vs. UCF)+20

#59 (1-2) 5.7 Syracuse ---BYE----3

#60 (0-2) -6.7 Kentucky (L 41-42 vs. Ole Miss)-27

#61 (0-2) -8.3 Missouri (L 12-35 vs. Tennessee)-27

#62 (0-2) -8.4 South Carolina (L 24-38 vs. Florida)-8

#63 (0-0) -9.4 Northwestern ---BYE----4

#64 (1-1) -17.8 Arkansas (W 21-14 vs. Miss St)+13

#65 (1-2) 11.8 Wake Forest (W 66-14 vs. FCS)-4

#66 (0-0) 8.2 Wyoming ---BYE---+3

#67 (0-0) 9.1 San Diego St ---BYE---+5

#68 (1-1) 13.1 Troy ---BYE---+5

#69 (2-0) 11.7 Marshall ---BYE---+7

#70 (1-2) 5.2 Florida St (W 41-24 vs. FCS)-12

#71 (1-2) 7.8 Louisville ---BYE----7

#72 (0-0) -5.8 California ---BYE----4

#73 (0-0) -9.8 Purdue ---BYE----8

#74 (0-0) -12.7 Maryland ---BYE----8

#75 (0-0) -6.7 Colorado ---BYE----4

#76 (0-0) 5.6 Fresno St ---BYE---+4

#77 (1-2) 0.8 Georgia Tech ---BYE----10

#79 (3-1) 24.8 Army (W 55-23 vs. FCS)+3

#80 (2-1) 6.3 La Tech (L 14-45 vs. BYU)-5

#81 (1-2) 9.9 Arkansas St (L 23-52 vs. Coastal Carolina)-7

#82 (0-0) -10.2 UCLA ---BYE---+3

#83 (2-1) 5.5 Ga Southern (W 35-30 vs. La Monroe)+7

#84 (3-0) 4.7 Liberty (W 28-7 vs. FCS)+0

#85 (0-4) 4.2 Duke (L 31-38 vs. Virginia Tech)-6

#86 (3-1) 2 UAB (W 21-13 vs. UTSA)+9

#87 (0-0) -17.7 Illinois ---BYE---+0

#88 (0-0) 1.9 Hawaii ---BYE---+3

#89 (1-2) -4.4 Texas Tech (L 21-31 vs. Kansas St)-8

#90 (0-0) -13.8 Oregon St ---BYE----2

#91 (0-0) -11.9 Arizona ---BYE----2

#92 (0-0) -0.5 Colorado St ---BYE---+1

#93 (1-2) 12.1 WKU (W 20-17 vs. Middle Tennessee)+1

#94 (1-1) -1.7 Georgia St (W 49-29 vs. East Carolina)+4

#95 (1-2) -2.7 USF (L 7-28 vs. Cincinnati)-3

#96 (0-2) -17.9 Vanderbilt (L 7-41 vs. LSU)-10

#97 (1-3) 7.6 Southern Miss (W 41-31 vs. North Texas)+7

#98 (0-0) -4.5 Nevada ---BYE---+4

#99 (0-0) -26.4 Rutgers ---BYE----2

#100 (0-0) -5.4 San Jose St ---BYE---+6

#101 (0-2) 0.1 Charlotte (L 17-21 vs. FAU)-1

#102 (3-1) -4.2 UTSA (L 13-21 vs. UAB)-1

#103 (0-1) 9.2 FIU ---BYE---+4

#104 (1-2) -4.2 South Alabama ---BYE---+4

#105 (0-3) -17.4 Kansas (L 7-47 vs. Oklahoma St)-9

#106 (0-4) 1 Middle Tennessee (L 17-20 vs. WKU)-7

#107 (0-0) -6.3 UNLV ---BYE---+3

#108 (0-0) -6.2 New Mexico ---BYE---+3

#109 (1-2) -0.7 North Texas (L 31-41 vs. Southern Miss)-6

#110 (1-3) -3.2 Texas St (L 24-31 vs. SMU)-1

#111 (0-0) -7.8 Rice ---BYE---+2

#112 (0-2) -11.2 East Carolina (L 29-49 vs. Georgia St)-7

#113 (3-1) -16.3 UTEP (W 24-14 vs. FCS)+1

#114 (0-4) -5.1 La Monroe (L 30-35 vs. Ga Southern)-2

#115 (0-1) -26.6 Ohio ---BYE---+0

#116 (0-1) -26.6 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0

#117 (0-1) -26.6 Buffalo ---BYE---+0

#118 (0-1) -26.6 Toledo ---BYE---+0

#119 (0-1) -26.6 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0

#120 (0-1) -26.6 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0

#121 (0-1) -26.6 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0

#122 (0-1) -26.6 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0

#123 (0-1) -26.6 Ball St ---BYE---+0

#124 (0-1) -26.6 Kent St ---BYE---+0

#125 (0-1) -26.6 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0

#126 (0-1) -26.6 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0

#127 (0-1) -26.6 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0

#128 (0-1) -26.6 Akron ---BYE---+0

#129 (0-1) -26.6 UConn ---BYE---+0

#130 (0-1) -26.6 UMass ---BYE---+0

100% (10-0)+W Florida (1%)

100% (11-0)+W Clemson (26%)

100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (3%)

100% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%)

100% (8-0)+W Air Force (9%)

100% (8-0)+W Boise St (7%)

99% (10-0)+W Alabama (22%)

99% (8-0)+W Penn State (4%)

99% (10-0)+W Georgia (3%)

99% (8-0)+W Ohio St (24%)

99% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (4%)

99% (6-0)+W Washington (11%)

98% (6-0)+W Oregon (5%)

98% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (4%)

98% (6-0)+W USC (2%)

98% (6-0)+W Utah (11%)

96% (10-0)      BYU (18%)

96% (10-1)+W Clemson (31%)

96% (10-1)+W Virginia Tech (1%)

95% (10-1)+W Miami (4%)

92% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (9%)

91% (10-1)+W North Carolina (1%)

87% (11-0)+L  Clemson (6%)

86% (7-1)+W Boise St (19%)

83% (11-0)+W SMU (1%)

81% (11-0)+L  Miami (1%)

80% (8-0)+L  Boise St (2%)

77% (7-1)+W Utah St (2%)

73% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (4%)

72% (9-1)+W Alabama (28%)

67% (7-1)+W San Diego St (2%)

64% (7-1)+W Air Force (16%)

64% (9-1)+W Georgia (11%)

63% (7-1)+W Wyoming (2%)

61% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (16%)

60% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%)

60% (9-1)+W Iowa St (1%)

55% (10-1)      Miami (2%)

54% (8-0)+L  Air Force (4%)

54% (10-0)+L  Alabama (8%)

52% (7-1)      Boise St (2%)

49% (11-0)+W Louisiana (12%)

48% (7-1)+W Penn State (10%)

47% (10-0)+L  Oklahoma St (2%)

46% (9-2)+W Clemson (8%)

46% (9-1)+W LSU (1%)

43% (10-1)      Notre Dame (2%)

42% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (2%)

40% (7-1)+W Iowa (4%)

38% (9-2)+W Miami (3%)

36% (10-0)+L  Georgia (4%)

36% (8-0)+W FAU (13%)

33% (9-1)+W Florida (3%)

32% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (10%)

32% (9-0)+W Marshall (3%)

31% (7-1)+W Ohio St (19%)

28% (7-1)+W Fresno St (2%)

28% (9-1)      Alabama (1%)

28% (7-1)      Air Force (7%)

25% (8-0)+L  Penn State (3%)

23% (9-2)+W North Carolina (1%)

22% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (6%)

22% (10-1)+L  Clemson (8%)

20% (10-1)+L  Miami (10%)

18% (9-1)      Georgia (2%)

17% (5-1)+W Wash St (3%)

17% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (3%)

16% (7-1)      Michigan (6%)

14% (8-1)+W UCF (7%)

14% (10-0)+L  Florida (3%)

13% (9-1)+W Memphis (2%)

12% (9-1)      BYU (43%)

12% (7-1)      Penn State (11%)

12% (8-0)+L  Ohio St (8%)

11% (8-0)+L  Iowa (2%)

11% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (16%)

10% (9-1)+W Cincinnati (3%)

9% (8-0)+L  Wisconsin (7%)

8% (6-2)+W Boise St (12%)

7% (7-1)+L  Boise St (8%)

7% (5-1)+W Oregon (10%)

7% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (12%)

6% (10-1)+W SMU (6%)

6% (5-1)+W Washington (15%)

6% (10-1)+L  North Carolina (4%)

6% (5-1)+W USC (6%)

6% (8-0)+L  Fresno St (1%)

5% (9-2)      Clemson (8%)

5% (5-1)+W Stanford (1%)

5% (6-2)+W Utah St (3%)

5% (7-1)      Minnesota (1%)

5% (9-2)      Miami (19%)

4% (7-1)      Iowa (2%)

4% (7-1)      Ohio St (18%)

3% (7-1)      Wisconsin (3%)

3% (7-1)+L  Utah St (4%)

3% (5-1)      Wash St (3%)

2% (6-2)+W Wyoming (3%)

2% (8-2)+W Alabama (10%)

2% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (20%)

2% (8-2)+W Iowa St (5%)

2% (11-0)+L  SMU (1%)

2% (5-1)+W Utah (14%)

2% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%)

2% (6-2)+W Air Force (6%)

2% (6-0)+L  Oregon (4%)

1% (7-2)+W Houston (3%)

1% (6-2)      Boise St (14%)

1% (6-0)+L  USC (3%)

1% (7-2)      Houston (1%)

1% (6-0)+L  Washington (6%)

1% (9-2)+L  Miami (10%)

1% (7-1)+L  Air Force (8%)

1% (9-2)      Notre Dame (22%)

1% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (8%)

1% (9-1)      Florida (5%)

1% (8-2)+W Georgia (7%)

0% (7-2)+W TCU (3%)

0% (10-1)+W App St (5%)

0% (6-2)+W San Diego St (4%)

0% (9-2)      North Carolina (15%)

0% (10-1)      Army (2%)

0% (9-1)+L  Georgia (21%)

0% (9-1)+L  Alabama (10%)

0% (5-1)      Oregon (12%)

0% (7-1)+L  San Diego St (5%)

0% (5-1)+W Arizona St (1%)

0% (9-1)+L  Oklahoma St (8%)

0% (7-1)+L  Wyoming (4%)

0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (24%)

0% (11-0)+L  Louisiana (6%)

0% (9-2)+L  Notre Dame (6%)

0% (8-2)+W Cincinnati (7%)

0% (5-1)      Utah (10%)

0% (5-1)      USC (11%)

0% (5-1)      Washington (15%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (31%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (27%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (18%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (36%)

98% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (34%)

98% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (4%)

95% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (48%)

87% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (1%)

72% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (46%)

69% 1-loss at large ACC (22%)

66% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%)

60% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (19%)

49% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (12%)

47% 1-loss at large Big 12 (2%)

40% 1-loss at large MWC (21%)

38% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (48%)

37% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (19%)

35% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (16%)

29% 1-loss at large SEC (26%)

13% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (20%)

10% 1-loss at large Big Ten (66%)

8% 2-loss at large ACC (129%)

6% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (54%)

4% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (32%)

2% 1-loss at large AAC (2%)

1% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (39%)

1% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (23%)

0% 2-loss at large MWC (134%)

0% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (91%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (31%)

0% 1-loss at large Sun Belt (7%)

0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (19%)

0% 2-loss at large SEC (119%)

0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (49%)

0% 3-loss at large ACC (175%)

0% 2-loss at large AAC (50%)

Playoff %

1) 69.93% Clemson

2) 48.5% Alabama

3) 32.72% Ohio St

4) 30.24% Boise St

5) 24.74% Air Force

6) 23.81% BYU

7) 19.86% Notre Dame

8) 16.54% Oklahoma St

9) 13.7% Georgia

10) 12.8% Washington

11) 12.22% Penn State

12) 12.04% Miami

13) 11.75% Utah

14) 8.41% Wisconsin

15) 6.82% Oregon

16) 6.38% Virginia Tech

17) 6.18% Louisiana

18) 4.85% FAU

19) 4.52% Michigan

20) 3.22% USC

21) 2.83% Florida

22) 2.71% Iowa

23) 2.66% Utah St

24) 2.41% Wyoming

25) 2.38% North Carolina

26) 1.91% San Diego St

27) 1.61% Wash St

28) 1.38% SMU

29) 1.34% Fresno St

30) 1.05% UCF

31) 1.03% Cincinnati

32) 0.99% Marshall

33) 0.81% Iowa St

34) 0.72% Arizona St

35) 0.72% Houston

36) 0.69% TCU

37) 0.5% LSU

38) 0.47% Auburn

39) 0.36% Texas

40) 0.32% Memphis

41) 0.31% Stanford

42) 0.29% Oregon St

43) 0.27% Minnesota

44) 0.23% Kansas St

45) 0.22% Baylor

46) 0.22% Arizona

47) 0.17% Hawaii

48) 0.16% Nebraska

49) 0.16% California

50) 0.15% Indiana

51) 0.15% UCLA

52) 0.13% Arkansas

53) 0.13% Mich St

54) 0.12% Tennessee

55) 0.12% Colorado

56) 0.11% Colorado St

57) 0.08% Boston College

58) 0.08% Illinois

59) 0.08% Temple

60) 0.06% Texas A*M

61) 0.06% NC State

62) 0.06% Tulsa

63) 0.05% Maryland

64) 0.05% West Virginia

65) 0.05% Nevada

66) 0.05% San Jose St

67) 0.05% App St

68) 0.04% Ole Miss

69) 0.04% Miss St

70) 0.03% Virginia

71) 0.03% Rutgers

72) 0.03% New Mexico

73) 0.03% UNLV

74) 0.02% Pittsburgh

75) 0.02% Tulane

76) 0.02% Army

77) 0.01% Northwestern

Top G5 Champ %

1) 31.99% Boise St

2) 24.49% Air Force

3) 8.88% Louisiana

4) 6.84% FAU

5) 3.98% San Diego St

6) 3.96% Wyoming

7) 3.86% Utah St

8) 2.98% UCF

9) 2.9% Fresno St

10) 2.47% SMU

11) 1.95% Cincinnati

12) 1.41% Marshall

13) 1.14% Houston

14) 1.09% Memphis

15) 0.43% App St

16) 0.38% Hawaii

17) 0.22% Tulsa

18) 0.21% Colorado St

19) 0.19% Navy

20) 0.16% Temple

21) 0.15% Troy

22) 0.08% Tulane

23) 0.07% Nevada

24) 0.06% San Jose St

25) 0.05% UNLV

26) 0.03% New Mexico

27) 0.03% La Tech

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*

90.62% Clemson (562/687) *1816*

70.66% Alabama (260/324) *593*

57.76% Ohio St (852/1167) *354*

50.82% Oklahoma St (31/59) *381*

43.56% Boise St (309/726) *848*

37.37% Air Force (380/871) *908*

36.22% Notre Dame (864/1340) *1084*

31.46% Washington (215/415) *105*

30.73% Georgia (241/372) *442*

29.37% Utah (43/138) *59*

28.29% Miami (920/1624) *1029*

25.61% Penn State (705/1135) *181*

24.96% Wisconsin (181/269) *247*

22.5% BYU (2240/5401) *10*

20.49% Iowa St (0/0) *7*

20.05% Oregon (133/352) *61*

15.39% Virginia Tech (556/1152) *521*

11.81% USC (58/260) *51*

11.4% Kansas St (0/0) *4*

11.07% Michigan (454/767) *97*

10.57% Florida (183/390) *123*

9.92% Iowa (77/183) *91*

8.9% Louisiana (1/3) *1*

8.03% Texas (2/6) *10*

7.69% North Carolina (252/621) *268*

6.84% FAU (0/3) *0*

6.77% TCU (8/23) *28*

5.93% Wash St (22/169) *22*

5.45% Utah St (39/197) *120*

4.97% Wyoming (13/84) *88*

4.87% San Diego St (10/98) *79*

3.85% Arizona St (10/66) *19*

3.42% LSU (34/59) *11*

3.36% Fresno St (0/23) *46*

3.33% UCF (5/8) *30*

3.08% Auburn (78/180) *13*

2.92% Baylor (1/3) *3*

2.83% SMU (3/9) *33*

2.58% Oklahoma (3/4) *6*

2.45% Stanford (19/96) *7*

2.35% Cincinnati (14/23) *26*

1.75% Houston (24/47) *37*

1.68% Minnesota (25/83) *15*

1.43% Marshall (0/14) *2*

1.39% West Virginia (0/4) *0*

1.34% Memphis (4/8) *21*

1.03% Colorado (6/30) *4*

0.95% California (7/37) *4*

0.67% Nebraska (8/25) *2*

0.62% UCLA (0/8) *6*

0.59% Oregon St (2/10) *3*

0.5% Tennessee (11/33) *4*

0.45% Arizona (0/1) *0*

0.45% Hawaii (0/9) *7*

0.43% App St (0/0) *0*

0.41% NC State (13/58) *13*

0.41% Indiana (12/30) *3*

0.37% Boston College (12/60) *12*

0.36% Illinois (2/2) *5*

0.35% Texas A*M (21/66) *2*

0.32% Arkansas (10/12) *0*

0.31% Mich St (10/21) *0*

0.28% Miss St (1/4) *0*

0.26% Colorado St (2/8) *3*

0.24% Pittsburgh (13/20) *6*

0.24% Tulsa (0/0) *2*

0.21% Kansas (0/0) *0*

0.2% Virginia (14/34) *5*

0.19% Northwestern (1/2) *3*

0.19% Navy (0/0) *0*

0.18% Ole Miss (2/6) *0*

0.18% Purdue (0/2) *2*

0.16% Temple (0/1) *0*

0.15% Rutgers (4/7) *0*

0.15% Troy (0/0) *0*

0.14% Maryland (9/12) *1*

0.11% Tulane (0/5) *3*

0.1% Wake Forest (4/7) *6*

0.1% Texas Tech (0/0) *0*

0.09% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*

0.09% Nevada (0/2) *2*

0.08% San Jose St (0/2) *2*

0.07% UNLV (0/1) *2*

0.06% Kentucky (0/0) *0*

0.05% Louisville (1/3) *0*

0.03% Missouri (0/0) *0*

0.03% New Mexico (0/0) *0*

0.03% La Tech (0/0) *0*

0.03% Army (2/11) *1*

0.02% South Carolina (0/0) *0*

0.02% Syracuse (2/7) *0*

0.01% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*

Crayton · 10-04-2020 11:02 AM

This week's sim-through (#115). Neither Clemson nor Notre Dame make the ACCCG. OK State is the Big 12's lone ranked team. And BYU, SDSU, and Air Force all enter the last week of the regular season with 1 loss and in the Top 14. Finally, we crown a NEW champion!!!

December 5th Standings:
ACC
#1 Miami (10-1, 9-1; 380-196) lost to Virginia Tech 13-30
#4 Virginia Tech (9-1, 8-1; 303-200) lost to Clemson 14-27
#6 Clemson (6-2, 8-2; 427-214) lost to Miami 35-39 and Georgia Tech 27-28
#10 Notre Dame (8-2, 7-2; 380-205) lost to Clemson 28-31 and North Carolina 24-27

Pac-12
#2 Washington (5-0; 196-104)
#11 Wash St (4-1; 157-97) lost to Washington 31-38
#19 Oregon (4-1; 149-131) lost to Wash St 14-42

Big Ten
#3 Michigan (7-0; 270-131)
#5 Ohio State (7-0; 265-135)
#12 Wisconsin (6-1; 238-130) lost to Michigan 17-54
#25 Iowa (5-2; 189-139) lost to Minnesota 20-27 and Penn State 10-49

Big 12
#7 OK State (9-1, 8-1; 291-170) lost to Oklahoma 21-24
#32 Iowa State (6-4, 6-3; 270-221) lost to OK State 13-15, Texas 12-15, and West Virginia 28-31

SEC
#8 Alabama (9-1; 391-203) lost to Georgia 28-31
#17 Georgia (8-2; 371-243) lost to Kentucky 35-37 and Florida 21-37
#21 Florida (8-2; 338-229) lost to LSU 24-40 and Kentucky 24-30
*#84 Kentucky's lone other victory was 41-28 vs. Vanderbilt

non-P5
#9 Air Force (7-1, 5-1; 290-158) lost to Boise St 27-32
#13 San Diego St (6-1; 227-117) lost to Nevada 16-18
#14 BYU (8-1; 356-167) lost to WKU 31-32
#15 Louisiana (10-1, 7-1) lost to App St 21-28
#16 App St (10-1, 8-0)
#18 Memphis (8-2, 6-2; 379-217) lost to Tulane 20-32
#20 UCF (7-2, 6-2; 249-158) lost to Memphis 24-27
#22 SMU (9-2, 6-2; 379-247) lost to Tulane 17-36 and Cincy 24-38
#35 La Tech (9-2, 8-0; 351-267) lost to La Monroe 31-32

December 12th results:
Notre Dame squeaks past Wake Forest, 31-28, keeping their hopes alive
Virginia Tech, however, clinches a berth in the ACCCG by beating Virginia 53-21
Ohio State defeats Michigan 27-10, winning the Big Ten East
Wisconsin defeats Iowa 30-17, winning the Big Ten West
Oregon defeats Washington 24-21, setting up a potential 3-way tie atop the Pac-12 North
Wash St, however, drops their game to California 13-16, giving the Ducks the North
BYU beats San Diego St in an exciting 39-35 showdown

December 19th matchups // results
#1 Ohio State (8-0) vs. #10 Wisconsin (7-1) // 24-21
#2 Virginia Tech (10-1) vs. #3 Miami (10-1) // 13-29
#4 OK State (10-1) vs. #30 Iowa St (6-4) // 23-20
#5 Alabama (9-1) vs. #20 Florida (8-2) // 48-24
#7 Oregon (5-1) vs. #25 Utah (5-1) // 20-21
#8 Air Force (7-1) vs. #19 San Diego St (6-2) // 20-23
#14 Louisiana (10-1) vs. #15 App St (10-1) // 37-17
notable others: #6 Michigan (7-1), #9 Clemson (9-2), #11 Washington (5-1), #12 BYU (9-1)

Playoffs // results
#1 Ohio State vs. #4 Alabama // 24-46
#2 Miami vs. #3 OK State // 33-21
#1 Miami vs. #2 Alabama // 20-17

quo vadis · 10-04-2020 11:40 AM

(10-04-2020 07:24 AM)Crayton Wrote: G5 Playoff Odds in Hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff:

Why are you continuing to model a G5 in an 8-team playoff instead of the NY6 spot when the CFP has said that the playoff is not expanding?

ken d · 10-04-2020 01:07 PM

(10-04-2020 07:24 AM)Crayton Wrote: As more schedules are released, the playoff outcomes continue to morph generously. This past weekend both the Mountain West and Pac-12 released their 8- and 7-game schedules, respectively. The computer thinks very poorly of a 6-1 record, so the Mountain West is the larger benefactor here, replacing the American and joining all 5 Power conferences as likely to place a team in the playoff if their champion is undefeated.

UCF, Memphis, Auburn, Texas, Baylor, and Mississippi State all fell yesterday, but the addition of two conferences meant that few teams in conferences-already-active made advancements in the playoff standings.

The two big gainers were OK State and Louisiana, +4% overall for each. OK State benefitted from both Oklahoma and Texas losing and seeing their chances of acing their schedule improve. Louisiana's game vs. App State was postponed, but the Sun Belt's out of conference prowess vis-a-vis the American, means being undefeated carries a higher (if still low) chance of cracking the Top 4.

G5 Playoff Odds in Hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff:
Total% TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*
43.56% Boise St (309/726) *848*
37.37% Air Force (380/871) *908*
22.5% BYU (2240/5401) *10*
8.9% Louisiana (1/3) *1*
6.84% FAU (0/3) *0*
5.45% Utah St (39/197) *120*
4.97% Wyoming (13/84) *88*
4.87% San Diego St (10/98) *79*
3.36% Fresno St (0/23) *46*
3.33% UCF (5/8) *30*
2.83% SMU (3/9) *33*
2.35% Cincinnati (14/23) *26*
1.75% Houston (24/47) *37*
1.43% Marshall (0/14) *2*
1.34% Memphis (4/8) *21*

Code:

Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week) #1 (2-0) 18.6 Alabama (W 52-24 vs. Texas A*M)+0 #2 (3-0) 36.9 Clemson (W 41-23 vs. Virginia)+0 #3 (0-0) 22.8 Ohio St ---BYE---+0 #4 (2-0) 11.2 Georgia (W 27-6 vs. Auburn)+0 #5 (2-0) 23.7 Notre Dame ---BYE---+2 #6 (0-0) 12.6 Penn State ---BYE----1 #7 (0-0) 10.6 Wisconsin ---BYE---+2 #8 (1-1) 9.3 LSU (W 41-7 vs. Vanderbilt)+3 #9 (2-0) 4.2 Florida (W 38-24 vs. South Carolina)+3 #10 (3-0) 9.7 Oklahoma St (W 47-7 vs. Kansas)+4 #11 (3-0) 18.9 Miami ---BYE----3 #12 (2-0) 14.7 Virginia Tech (W 38-31 vs. Duke)+8 #13 (0-0) 9.4 Michigan ---BYE----3 #14 (0-0) 6.2 Iowa ---BYE---+1 #15 (0-0) 9.6 Washington ---BYE---+2 #16 (1-1) 5.5 Auburn (L 6-27 vs. Georgia)-10 #17 (1-1) -2.2 Texas A*M (L 24-52 vs. Alabama)+1 #18 (2-1) 17.6 UCF (L 26-34 vs. Tulsa)-5 #19 (0-0) 7.3 Utah ---BYE---+3 #20 (0-0) 21.4 Boise St ---BYE---+5 #21 (0-0) 5.9 Oregon ---BYE---+2 #22 (1-0) 19.6 Air Force (W 40-7 vs. Navy)+22 #23 (2-0) 18.7 North Carolina (W 26-22 vs. Boston College)+13 #24 (2-1) 4.1 Iowa St (W 37-30 vs. Oklahoma)+18 #25 (1-1) -3.8 Miss St (L 14-21 vs. Arkansas)-9 #26 (2-1) 8.6 Texas (L 31-33 vs. TCU)-7 #27 (2-0) -6.1 Tennessee (W 35-12 vs. Missouri)+8 #28 (3-0) 29.5 BYU (W 45-14 vs. La Tech)+11 #29 (2-1) 4.9 Kansas St (W 31-21 vs. Texas Tech)+1 #30 (0-0) -1.1 Minnesota ---BYE----3 #31 (1-1) 2.9 TCU (W 33-31 vs. Texas)+14 #32 (1-1) 22.4 Memphis ---BYE---+0 #33 (3-0) 14.1 Cincinnati (W 28-7 vs. USF)+7 #34 (3-0) 16.5 Louisiana ---BYE---+4 #35 (1-2) 13.8 Oklahoma (L 30-37 vs. Iowa St)-14 #36 (0-0) 2 USC ---BYE----8 #37 (0-0) -5.4 Indiana ---BYE----6 #38 (1-1) 3.4 Baylor (L 21-27 vs. West Virginia)-14 #39 (2-1) 9.1 Boston College (L 22-26 vs. North Carolina)-13 #40 (0-0) 1.3 Wash St ---BYE---+3 #41 (1-0) 13.2 FAU (W 21-17 vs. Charlotte)+6 #42 (4-0) 11.5 SMU (W 31-24 vs. Texas St)+7 #43 (0-0) -6.1 Nebraska ---BYE----2 #44 (2-1) 19.2 App St ---BYE---+4 #45 (1-2) 8.6 Navy (L 7-40 vs. Air Force)-16 #46 (0-0) -6.1 Mich St ---BYE---+0 #47 (0-0) 9.8 Houston ---BYE---+3 #48 (1-1) -10.5 Ole Miss (W 42-41 vs. Kentucky)+7 #49 (2-1) 6.7 NC State (W 30-29 vs. Pittsburgh)+14 #50 (1-1) 16.9 Virginia (L 23-41 vs. Clemson)+2 #51 (3-1) 9.5 Pittsburgh (L 29-30 vs. NC State)-14 #52 (0-0) -2.2 Stanford ---BYE----1 #53 (0-0) -3.9 Arizona St ---BYE---+0 #54 (0-0) 8.8 Utah St ---BYE---+8 #55 (2-1) 1.9 West Virginia (W 27-21 vs. Baylor)+15 #56 (2-1) 10.9 Tulane ---BYE---+4 #57 (0-0) 6.4 Temple ---BYE---+0 #58 (1-1) 5.3 Tulsa (W 34-26 vs. UCF)+20 #59 (1-2) 5.7 Syracuse ---BYE----3 #60 (0-2) -6.7 Kentucky (L 41-42 vs. Ole Miss)-27 #61 (0-2) -8.3 Missouri (L 12-35 vs. Tennessee)-27 #62 (0-2) -8.4 South Carolina (L 24-38 vs. Florida)-8 #63 (0-0) -9.4 Northwestern ---BYE----4 #64 (1-1) -17.8 Arkansas (W 21-14 vs. Miss St)+13 #65 (1-2) 11.8 Wake Forest (W 66-14 vs. FCS)-4 #66 (0-0) 8.2 Wyoming ---BYE---+3 #67 (0-0) 9.1 San Diego St ---BYE---+5 #68 (1-1) 13.1 Troy ---BYE---+5 #69 (2-0) 11.7 Marshall ---BYE---+7 #70 (1-2) 5.2 Florida St (W 41-24 vs. FCS)-12 #71 (1-2) 7.8 Louisville ---BYE----7 #72 (0-0) -5.8 California ---BYE----4 #73 (0-0) -9.8 Purdue ---BYE----8 #74 (0-0) -12.7 Maryland ---BYE----8 #75 (0-0) -6.7 Colorado ---BYE----4 #76 (0-0) 5.6 Fresno St ---BYE---+4 #77 (1-2) 0.8 Georgia Tech ---BYE----10 #79 (3-1) 24.8 Army (W 55-23 vs. FCS)+3 #80 (2-1) 6.3 La Tech (L 14-45 vs. BYU)-5 #81 (1-2) 9.9 Arkansas St (L 23-52 vs. Coastal Carolina)-7 #82 (0-0) -10.2 UCLA ---BYE---+3 #83 (2-1) 5.5 Ga Southern (W 35-30 vs. La Monroe)+7 #84 (3-0) 4.7 Liberty (W 28-7 vs. FCS)+0 #85 (0-4) 4.2 Duke (L 31-38 vs. Virginia Tech)-6 #86 (3-1) 2 UAB (W 21-13 vs. UTSA)+9 #87 (0-0) -17.7 Illinois ---BYE---+0 #88 (0-0) 1.9 Hawaii ---BYE---+3 #89 (1-2) -4.4 Texas Tech (L 21-31 vs. Kansas St)-8 #90 (0-0) -13.8 Oregon St ---BYE----2 #91 (0-0) -11.9 Arizona ---BYE----2 #92 (0-0) -0.5 Colorado St ---BYE---+1 #93 (1-2) 12.1 WKU (W 20-17 vs. Middle Tennessee)+1 #94 (1-1) -1.7 Georgia St (W 49-29 vs. East Carolina)+4 #95 (1-2) -2.7 USF (L 7-28 vs. Cincinnati)-3 #96 (0-2) -17.9 Vanderbilt (L 7-41 vs. LSU)-10 #97 (1-3) 7.6 Southern Miss (W 41-31 vs. North Texas)+7 #98 (0-0) -4.5 Nevada ---BYE---+4 #99 (0-0) -26.4 Rutgers ---BYE----2 #100 (0-0) -5.4 San Jose St ---BYE---+6 #101 (0-2) 0.1 Charlotte (L 17-21 vs. FAU)-1 #102 (3-1) -4.2 UTSA (L 13-21 vs. UAB)-1 #103 (0-1) 9.2 FIU ---BYE---+4 #104 (1-2) -4.2 South Alabama ---BYE---+4 #105 (0-3) -17.4 Kansas (L 7-47 vs. Oklahoma St)-9 #106 (0-4) 1 Middle Tennessee (L 17-20 vs. WKU)-7 #107 (0-0) -6.3 UNLV ---BYE---+3 #108 (0-0) -6.2 New Mexico ---BYE---+3 #109 (1-2) -0.7 North Texas (L 31-41 vs. Southern Miss)-6 #110 (1-3) -3.2 Texas St (L 24-31 vs. SMU)-1 #111 (0-0) -7.8 Rice ---BYE---+2 #112 (0-2) -11.2 East Carolina (L 29-49 vs. Georgia St)-7 #113 (3-1) -16.3 UTEP (W 24-14 vs. FCS)+1 #114 (0-4) -5.1 La Monroe (L 30-35 vs. Ga Southern)-2 #115 (0-1) -26.6 Ohio ---BYE---+0 #116 (0-1) -26.6 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0 #117 (0-1) -26.6 Buffalo ---BYE---+0 #118 (0-1) -26.6 Toledo ---BYE---+0 #119 (0-1) -26.6 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0 #120 (0-1) -26.6 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0 #121 (0-1) -26.6 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0 #122 (0-1) -26.6 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0 #123 (0-1) -26.6 Ball St ---BYE---+0 #124 (0-1) -26.6 Kent St ---BYE---+0 #125 (0-1) -26.6 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0 #126 (0-1) -26.6 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0 #127 (0-1) -26.6 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0 #128 (0-1) -26.6 Akron ---BYE---+0 #129 (0-1) -26.6 UConn ---BYE---+0 #130 (0-1) -26.6 UMass ---BYE---+0 100% (10-0)+W Florida (1%) 100% (11-0)+W Clemson (26%) 100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (3%) 100% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%) 100% (8-0)+W Air Force (9%) 100% (8-0)+W Boise St (7%) 99% (10-0)+W Alabama (22%) 99% (8-0)+W Penn State (4%) 99% (10-0)+W Georgia (3%) 99% (8-0)+W Ohio St (24%) 99% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (4%) 99% (6-0)+W Washington (11%) 98% (6-0)+W Oregon (5%) 98% (10-0)+W Oklahoma St (4%) 98% (6-0)+W USC (2%) 98% (6-0)+W Utah (11%) 96% (10-0) BYU (18%) 96% (10-1)+W Clemson (31%) 96% (10-1)+W Virginia Tech (1%) 95% (10-1)+W Miami (4%) 92% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (9%) 91% (10-1)+W North Carolina (1%) 87% (11-0)+L Clemson (6%) 86% (7-1)+W Boise St (19%) 83% (11-0)+W SMU (1%) 81% (11-0)+L Miami (1%) 80% (8-0)+L Boise St (2%) 77% (7-1)+W Utah St (2%) 73% (11-0)+L Notre Dame (4%) 72% (9-1)+W Alabama (28%) 67% (7-1)+W San Diego St (2%) 64% (7-1)+W Air Force (16%) 64% (9-1)+W Georgia (11%) 63% (7-1)+W Wyoming (2%) 61% (9-1)+W Oklahoma St (16%) 60% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%) 60% (9-1)+W Iowa St (1%) 55% (10-1) Miami (2%) 54% (8-0)+L Air Force (4%) 54% (10-0)+L Alabama (8%) 52% (7-1) Boise St (2%) 49% (11-0)+W Louisiana (12%) 48% (7-1)+W Penn State (10%) 47% (10-0)+L Oklahoma St (2%) 46% (9-2)+W Clemson (8%) 46% (9-1)+W LSU (1%) 43% (10-1) Notre Dame (2%) 42% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (2%) 40% (7-1)+W Iowa (4%) 38% (9-2)+W Miami (3%) 36% (10-0)+L Georgia (4%) 36% (8-0)+W FAU (13%) 33% (9-1)+W Florida (3%) 32% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (10%) 32% (9-0)+W Marshall (3%) 31% (7-1)+W Ohio St (19%) 28% (7-1)+W Fresno St (2%) 28% (9-1) Alabama (1%) 28% (7-1) Air Force (7%) 25% (8-0)+L Penn State (3%) 23% (9-2)+W North Carolina (1%) 22% (10-1)+L Virginia Tech (6%) 22% (10-1)+L Clemson (8%) 20% (10-1)+L Miami (10%) 18% (9-1) Georgia (2%) 17% (5-1)+W Wash St (3%) 17% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (3%) 16% (7-1) Michigan (6%) 14% (8-1)+W UCF (7%) 14% (10-0)+L Florida (3%) 13% (9-1)+W Memphis (2%) 12% (9-1) BYU (43%) 12% (7-1) Penn State (11%) 12% (8-0)+L Ohio St (8%) 11% (8-0)+L Iowa (2%) 11% (10-1)+L Notre Dame (16%) 10% (9-1)+W Cincinnati (3%) 9% (8-0)+L Wisconsin (7%) 8% (6-2)+W Boise St (12%) 7% (7-1)+L Boise St (8%) 7% (5-1)+W Oregon (10%) 7% (9-2) Virginia Tech (12%) 6% (10-1)+W SMU (6%) 6% (5-1)+W Washington (15%) 6% (10-1)+L North Carolina (4%) 6% (5-1)+W USC (6%) 6% (8-0)+L Fresno St (1%) 5% (9-2) Clemson (8%) 5% (5-1)+W Stanford (1%) 5% (6-2)+W Utah St (3%) 5% (7-1) Minnesota (1%) 5% (9-2) Miami (19%) 4% (7-1) Iowa (2%) 4% (7-1) Ohio St (18%) 3% (7-1) Wisconsin (3%) 3% (7-1)+L Utah St (4%) 3% (5-1) Wash St (3%) 2% (6-2)+W Wyoming (3%) 2% (8-2)+W Alabama (10%) 2% (8-2)+W Oklahoma St (20%) 2% (8-2)+W Iowa St (5%) 2% (11-0)+L SMU (1%) 2% (5-1)+W Utah (14%) 2% (8-2)+W Auburn (1%) 2% (6-2)+W Air Force (6%) 2% (6-0)+L Oregon (4%) 1% (7-2)+W Houston (3%) 1% (6-2) Boise St (14%) 1% (6-0)+L USC (3%) 1% (7-2) Houston (1%) 1% (6-0)+L Washington (6%) 1% (9-2)+L Miami (10%) 1% (7-1)+L Air Force (8%) 1% (9-2) Notre Dame (22%) 1% (9-2)+L Virginia Tech (8%) 1% (9-1) Florida (5%) 1% (8-2)+W Georgia (7%) 0% (7-2)+W TCU (3%) 0% (10-1)+W App St (5%) 0% (6-2)+W San Diego St (4%) 0% (9-2) North Carolina (15%) 0% (10-1) Army (2%) 0% (9-1)+L Georgia (21%) 0% (9-1)+L Alabama (10%) 0% (5-1) Oregon (12%) 0% (7-1)+L San Diego St (5%) 0% (5-1)+W Arizona St (1%) 0% (9-1)+L Oklahoma St (8%) 0% (7-1)+L Wyoming (4%) 0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (24%) 0% (11-0)+L Louisiana (6%) 0% (9-2)+L Notre Dame (6%) 0% (8-2)+W Cincinnati (7%) 0% (5-1) Utah (10%) 0% (5-1) USC (11%) 0% (5-1) Washington (15%) 100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (31%) 99% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (27%) 99% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (18%) 99% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (36%) 98% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (34%) 98% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (4%) 95% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (48%) 87% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (1%) 72% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (46%) 69% 1-loss at large ACC (22%) 66% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (45%) 60% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (19%) 49% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (12%) 47% 1-loss at large Big 12 (2%) 40% 1-loss at large MWC (21%) 38% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (48%) 37% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (19%) 35% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (16%) 29% 1-loss at large SEC (26%) 13% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (20%) 10% 1-loss at large Big Ten (66%) 8% 2-loss at large ACC (129%) 6% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (54%) 4% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (32%) 2% 1-loss at large AAC (2%) 1% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (39%) 1% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (23%) 0% 2-loss at large MWC (134%) 0% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (91%) 0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (31%) 0% 1-loss at large Sun Belt (7%) 0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (19%) 0% 2-loss at large SEC (119%) 0% 2-loss CHAMP AAC (49%) 0% 3-loss at large ACC (175%) 0% 2-loss at large AAC (50%) Playoff % 1) 69.93% Clemson 2) 48.5% Alabama 3) 32.72% Ohio St 4) 30.24% Boise St 5) 24.74% Air Force 6) 23.81% BYU 7) 19.86% Notre Dame 8) 16.54% Oklahoma St 9) 13.7% Georgia 10) 12.8% Washington 11) 12.22% Penn State 12) 12.04% Miami 13) 11.75% Utah 14) 8.41% Wisconsin 15) 6.82% Oregon 16) 6.38% Virginia Tech 17) 6.18% Louisiana 18) 4.85% FAU 19) 4.52% Michigan 20) 3.22% USC 21) 2.83% Florida 22) 2.71% Iowa 23) 2.66% Utah St 24) 2.41% Wyoming 25) 2.38% North Carolina 26) 1.91% San Diego St 27) 1.61% Wash St 28) 1.38% SMU 29) 1.34% Fresno St 30) 1.05% UCF 31) 1.03% Cincinnati 32) 0.99% Marshall 33) 0.81% Iowa St 34) 0.72% Arizona St 35) 0.72% Houston 36) 0.69% TCU 37) 0.5% LSU 38) 0.47% Auburn 39) 0.36% Texas 40) 0.32% Memphis 41) 0.31% Stanford 42) 0.29% Oregon St 43) 0.27% Minnesota 44) 0.23% Kansas St 45) 0.22% Baylor 46) 0.22% Arizona 47) 0.17% Hawaii 48) 0.16% Nebraska 49) 0.16% California 50) 0.15% Indiana 51) 0.15% UCLA 52) 0.13% Arkansas 53) 0.13% Mich St 54) 0.12% Tennessee 55) 0.12% Colorado 56) 0.11% Colorado St 57) 0.08% Boston College 58) 0.08% Illinois 59) 0.08% Temple 60) 0.06% Texas A*M 61) 0.06% NC State 62) 0.06% Tulsa 63) 0.05% Maryland 64) 0.05% West Virginia 65) 0.05% Nevada 66) 0.05% San Jose St 67) 0.05% App St 68) 0.04% Ole Miss 69) 0.04% Miss St 70) 0.03% Virginia 71) 0.03% Rutgers 72) 0.03% New Mexico 73) 0.03% UNLV 74) 0.02% Pittsburgh 75) 0.02% Tulane 76) 0.02% Army 77) 0.01% Northwestern Top G5 Champ % 1) 31.99% Boise St 2) 24.49% Air Force 3) 8.88% Louisiana 4) 6.84% FAU 5) 3.98% San Diego St 6) 3.96% Wyoming 7) 3.86% Utah St 8) 2.98% UCF 9) 2.9% Fresno St 10) 2.47% SMU 11) 1.95% Cincinnati 12) 1.41% Marshall 13) 1.14% Houston 14) 1.09% Memphis 15) 0.43% App St 16) 0.38% Hawaii 17) 0.22% Tulsa 18) 0.21% Colorado St 19) 0.19% Navy 20) 0.16% Temple 21) 0.15% Troy 22) 0.08% Tulane 23) 0.07% Nevada 24) 0.06% San Jose St 25) 0.05% UNLV 26) 0.03% New Mexico 27) 0.03% La Tech 5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot* 90.62% Clemson (562/687) *1816* 70.66% Alabama (260/324) *593* 57.76% Ohio St (852/1167) *354* 50.82% Oklahoma St (31/59) *381* 43.56% Boise St (309/726) *848* 37.37% Air Force (380/871) *908* 36.22% Notre Dame (864/1340) *1084* 31.46% Washington (215/415) *105* 30.73% Georgia (241/372) *442* 29.37% Utah (43/138) *59* 28.29% Miami (920/1624) *1029* 25.61% Penn State (705/1135) *181* 24.96% Wisconsin (181/269) *247* 22.5% BYU (2240/5401) *10* 20.49% Iowa St (0/0) *7* 20.05% Oregon (133/352) *61* 15.39% Virginia Tech (556/1152) *521* 11.81% USC (58/260) *51* 11.4% Kansas St (0/0) *4* 11.07% Michigan (454/767) *97* 10.57% Florida (183/390) *123* 9.92% Iowa (77/183) *91* 8.9% Louisiana (1/3) *1* 8.03% Texas (2/6) *10* 7.69% North Carolina (252/621) *268* 6.84% FAU (0/3) *0* 6.77% TCU (8/23) *28* 5.93% Wash St (22/169) *22* 5.45% Utah St (39/197) *120* 4.97% Wyoming (13/84) *88* 4.87% San Diego St (10/98) *79* 3.85% Arizona St (10/66) *19* 3.42% LSU (34/59) *11* 3.36% Fresno St (0/23) *46* 3.33% UCF (5/8) *30* 3.08% Auburn (78/180) *13* 2.92% Baylor (1/3) *3* 2.83% SMU (3/9) *33* 2.58% Oklahoma (3/4) *6* 2.45% Stanford (19/96) *7* 2.35% Cincinnati (14/23) *26* 1.75% Houston (24/47) *37* 1.68% Minnesota (25/83) *15* 1.43% Marshall (0/14) *2* 1.39% West Virginia (0/4) *0* 1.34% Memphis (4/8) *21* 1.03% Colorado (6/30) *4* 0.95% California (7/37) *4* 0.67% Nebraska (8/25) *2* 0.62% UCLA (0/8) *6* 0.59% Oregon St (2/10) *3* 0.5% Tennessee (11/33) *4* 0.45% Arizona (0/1) *0* 0.45% Hawaii (0/9) *7* 0.43% App St (0/0) *0* 0.41% NC State (13/58) *13* 0.41% Indiana (12/30) *3* 0.37% Boston College (12/60) *12* 0.36% Illinois (2/2) *5* 0.35% Texas A*M (21/66) *2* 0.32% Arkansas (10/12) *0* 0.31% Mich St (10/21) *0* 0.28% Miss St (1/4) *0* 0.26% Colorado St (2/8) *3* 0.24% Pittsburgh (13/20) *6* 0.24% Tulsa (0/0) *2* 0.21% Kansas (0/0) *0* 0.2% Virginia (14/34) *5* 0.19% Northwestern (1/2) *3* 0.19% Navy (0/0) *0* 0.18% Ole Miss (2/6) *0* 0.18% Purdue (0/2) *2* 0.16% Temple (0/1) *0* 0.15% Rutgers (4/7) *0* 0.15% Troy (0/0) *0* 0.14% Maryland (9/12) *1* 0.11% Tulane (0/5) *3* 0.1% Wake Forest (4/7) *6* 0.1% Texas Tech (0/0) *0* 0.09% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0* 0.09% Nevada (0/2) *2* 0.08% San Jose St (0/2) *2* 0.07% UNLV (0/1) *2* 0.06% Kentucky (0/0) *0* 0.05% Louisville (1/3) *0* 0.03% Missouri (0/0) *0* 0.03% New Mexico (0/0) *0* 0.03% La Tech (0/0) *0* 0.03% Army (2/11) *1* 0.02% South Carolina (0/0) *0* 0.02% Syracuse (2/7) *0* 0.01% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*

Computers don't think poorly of 6-1 records. Only numb nuts programmers build this bias into their simulations.

Crayton · 10-04-2020 01:19 PM

(10-04-2020 11:40 AM)quo vadis Wrote:
(10-04-2020 07:24 AM)Crayton Wrote: G5 Playoff Odds in Hypothetical 5-1-2 playoff:

Why are you continuing to model a G5 in an 8-team playoff instead of the NY6 spot when the CFP has said that the playoff is not expanding?

Laziness.

This summer I added the ability to "query" each individual season of the 10,000 simulated, but I included only certain facts for each season: the schedule (including the playoff and CCG, but not other contingent games like other bowls or the runner-up games in the Pac-12 and Big Ten) and the 3 at-large teams for the hypothetical playoff to each season's data set.

At first blush I though I could just record the 3 NY6 teams that didn't make an 8-team playoff. But there is the possibility that conference ties require more than 3 such teams. Additionally, information like who gets the Orange slot(s) would be useful. So, if I do add NY6 info to the query-able data set, it'll be all 8 non-playoff NY6 teams. At the time I was trying to keep my data low, and laziness keeps me from adding it in now.

BUT, The simulation does indeed pick NY6 teams by the quirky, conference-based rules, but only records totals over the 10,000 seasons. For your viewing pleasure I have re-simmed just now to give those totals for the board's perusal:

Code:

Florida

Georgia

Tennessee

South Carolina

Kentucky

Missouri

Vanderbilt

Alabama

LSU

Auburn

Arkansas

Ole Miss

Texas A*M

Miss St

Florida St

Clemson

Boston College

Wake Forest

Louisville

NC State

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

Miami

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

Virginia

North Carolina

Duke

Notre Dame

Maryland

Penn State

Michigan

Mich St

Ohio St

Rutgers

Indiana

Wisconsin

Illinois

Purdue

Northwestern

Minnesota

Iowa

Nebraska

West Virginia

Kansas

Kansas St

Iowa St

Oklahoma

Oklahoma St

TCU

Texas

Texas Tech

Baylor

Colorado

Arizona

Arizona St

USC

UCLA

Utah

California

Oregon

Oregon St

Stanford

Washington

Wash St

UConn

Cincinnati

USF

UCF

Temple

East Carolina

Houston

SMU

Memphis

Tulsa

Tulane

Navy

BYU

Air Force

Colorado St

Wyoming

New Mexico

Boise St

Utah St

UNLV

San Diego St

Nevada

Fresno St

Hawaii

San Jose St

La Tech

UTEP

Rice

North Texas

UTSA

UAB

Southern Miss

Old Dominion

WKU

Charlotte

Marshall

Middle Tennessee

FIU

FAU

Army

UMass

Buffalo

Ohio

Bowling Green

Kent St

Miami(OH)

Akron

Central Michigan

Western Michigan

Northern Illinois

Toledo

Ball St

Eastern Michigan

Liberty

New Mexico St

Troy

Arkansas St

Louisiana

La Monroe

South Alabama

Texas St

Georgia St

Ga Southern

App St

And as I look at the data, I see MANY G5 teams getting into the NY6. Quick math says 3.25 spots on average are going to the G5(4? +BYU) while only 8.75 to the P5.

This is a result of so few OOC games. The P5 can't stand heads-and-shoulders above the rest without proving so on the field. Acknowledging the logistical limitations, the dearth of data says this would be a good year to try an 8-team playoff. If the chaff can't be sorted in the regular-season, sort it in the post-.

Crayton · 10-20-2020 02:10 PM

Clemson tops Alabama in the rankings, Ohio State stays #3. Georgia falls 2 spots to #6 while Notre Dame claims the #4 spot. BYU and Miami fill out the Top 7.

Undefeated teams are still mostly locks for the playoff (including Boise/BYU), while the ACC is the most likely conference to keep a playoff spot if their champion has 1 loss. The MAC schedule has still yet to be added.

Boise State/Air Force now lead the race for the G5 NY6 spot. The computer is low on Cincinnati; this week's game vs. SMU will leave the American with 1 undefeated team and parity will likely continue to beat the conference down.

Top G5 Champ %
1) 29.75% Boise St
2) 22.22% Air Force
3) 11.84% Marshall
4) 7.07% SMU
5) 5.51% FAU
6) 4.07% Wyoming
7) 3.87% Utah St
8) 3.43% San Diego St
9) 3.37% Memphis
10) 3.03% Fresno St
11) 1.98% Cincinnati

Code:

Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)

#1 (5-0) 39.6 Clemson (W 73-7 vs. Georgia Tech)+1

#2 (4-0) 19.6 Alabama (W 41-24 vs. Georgia)-1

#3 (0-0) 24.5 Ohio St ---BYE---+0

#4 (4-0) 23 Notre Dame (W 12-7 vs. Louisville)+1

#5 (5-0) 27.5 BYU (W 43-26 vs. Houston)+5

#6 (3-1) 12.8 Georgia (L 24-41 vs. Alabama)-2

#7 (4-1) 20.7 Miami (W 31-19 vs. Pittsburgh)+6

#8 (0-0) 14.4 Penn State ---BYE----2

#9 (0-0) 12.4 Wisconsin ---BYE----2

#10 (3-0) 10.2 OK State ---BYE----2

#11 (3-1) 17.1 Virginia Tech (W 40-14 vs. Boston College)+10

#12 (0-0) 11.2 Michigan ---BYE----1

#13 (0-0) 11.4 Washington ---BYE---+2

#14 (0-0) 21.6 Boise St ---BYE---+2

#15 (0-0) 7.9 Iowa ---BYE----1

#16 (3-1) 0.5 Texas A*M (W 28-14 vs. Miss St)+3

#17 (2-1) 6.1 Florida ---BYE---+1

#18 (3-1) 20.1 North Carolina (L 28-31 vs. Florida St)-9

#19 (1-0) 18.1 Air Force ---BYE----2

#20 (2-1) 20 Memphis (W 50-49 vs. UCF)+9

#21 (4-1) 10.6 NC State (W 31-20 vs. Duke)+11

#22 (5-0) 10.1 SMU (W 37-34 vs. Tulane)+15

#23 (0-0) 9.1 Utah ---BYE----1

#24 (3-1) 5.2 Kansas St ---BYE---+1

#25 (3-1) 5.5 Iowa St ---BYE---+1

#26 (2-2) 2.9 Auburn (L 22-30 vs. South Carolina)-14

#27 (1-2) 8.8 LSU ---BYE----4

#28 (0-0) 7.7 Oregon ---BYE----4

#29 (2-2) 14.1 Oklahoma ---BYE----2

#30 (3-0) 12.1 Cincinnati ---BYE---+1

#31 (2-2) 15.8 UCF (L 49-50 vs. Memphis)-11

#32 (4-0) 13.6 Marshall (W 35-17 vs. La Tech)+24

#33 (1-0) 12.4 FAU ---BYE---+3

#34 (3-2) 4.3 Navy (W 27-23 vs. East Carolina)+5

#35 (3-2) 6.9 Boston College (L 14-40 vs. Virginia Tech)-7

#36 (0-0) 0.7 Minnesota ---BYE----3

#37 (0-0) 3.8 USC ---BYE----3

#38 (2-1) 16 App St ---BYE---+6

#39 (2-2) -0.8 Kentucky (W 34-7 vs. Tennessee)+7

#40 (2-2) 9.6 Texas ---BYE---+0

#41 (0-0) 3.1 Wash St ---BYE---+1

#42 (2-2) -2.5 South Carolina (W 30-22 vs. Auburn)+12

#43 (2-2) 14 Wake Forest (W 40-23 vs. Virginia)+20

#44 (3-1) 13 Louisiana (L 27-30 vs. Coastal Carolina)-14

#45 (1-1) 4 Baylor ---BYE----4

#46 (1-1) 7.4 Houston (L 26-43 vs. BYU)-11

#47 (3-1) 3.1 West Virginia (W 38-17 vs. Kansas)+10

#48 (0-0) -3.6 Indiana ---BYE----5

#49 (0-0) 9.3 Utah St ---BYE---+1

#50 (1-2) -4.1 Missouri ---BYE----5

#51 (1-2) 2.9 TCU ---BYE----4

#52 (0-0) -4.3 Nebraska ---BYE----4

#53 (0-0) -4.3 Mich St ---BYE----4

#54 (2-2) -6.4 Tennessee (L 7-34 vs. Kentucky)-16

#55 (2-3) 5.8 Florida St (W 31-28 vs. North Carolina)+15

#57 (5-0) 10.7 Liberty (W 38-21 vs. Syracuse)+25

#58 (0-0) -0.4 Stanford ---BYE----7

#59 (0-0) 8.7 Wyoming ---BYE---+5

#60 (0-0) 9.6 San Diego St ---BYE---+5

#61 (1-1) 3.8 Tulsa ---BYE----2

#62 (0-0) -2.1 Arizona St ---BYE----2

#63 (2-2) -12.3 Arkansas (W 33-21 vs. Ole Miss)+6

#64 (3-3) 9.5 Pittsburgh (L 19-31 vs. Miami)-6

#65 (1-1) 5 Temple (W 39-37 vs. USF)+3

#66 (2-3) 0.4 Georgia Tech (L 7-73 vs. Clemson)-4

#67 (1-3) -5.4 Miss St (L 14-28 vs. Texas A*M)-15

#68 (1-3) 15 Virginia (L 23-40 vs. Wake Forest)-13

#69 (5-1) 13.3 Army (W 28-16 vs. UTSA)+12

#70 (0-0) 6.4 Fresno St ---BYE---+3

#71 (3-1) 1.7 Troy (W 31-29 vs. FCS)-10

#72 (4-1) 3.4 UAB (W 37-14 vs. WKU)+15

#73 (0-0) -7.6 Northwestern ---BYE----7

#74 (0-0) -4.1 California ---BYE----2

#75 (2-3) 7.1 Tulane (L 34-37 vs. SMU)-8

#76 (0-0) -4.9 Colorado ---BYE---+0

#77 (0-0) -8 Purdue ---BYE---+0

#78 (3-2) -0.3 Arkansas St (W 59-52 vs. Georgia St)+8

#79 (1-3) -9.5 Ole Miss (L 21-33 vs. Arkansas)-26

#80 (1-4) 6.5 Louisville (L 7-12 vs. Notre Dame)-1

#81 (3-1) 2.5 Ga Southern (W 41-0 vs. UMass)+4

#82 (0-0) -10.9 Maryland ---BYE----4

#83 (0-0) 2.6 Hawaii ---BYE---+0

#84 (1-5) 5.1 Duke (L 20-31 vs. NC State)-10

#85 (3-2) 2.2 La Tech (L 17-35 vs. Marshall)-5

#86 (1-4) 3 Syracuse (L 21-38 vs. Liberty)-15

#87 (0-0) -8.4 UCLA ---BYE----3

#88 (0-0) 0 Colorado St ---BYE---+2

#89 (0-0) -12.1 Oregon St ---BYE---+0

#90 (0-0) -10.1 Arizona ---BYE---+1

#91 (0-0) -15.9 Illinois ---BYE----3

#92 (1-2) 2.8 Charlotte ---BYE---+0

#93 (0-0) -3.7 Nevada ---BYE---+4

#94 (1-3) -4.9 Texas Tech ---BYE---+0

#95 (1-3) 7 Southern Miss ---BYE---+1

#96 (0-0) -4.9 San Jose St ---BYE---+2

#97 (2-2) -7.6 South Alabama (W 30-20 vs. Texas St)+10

#98 (1-4) 7.9 WKU (L 14-37 vs. UAB)-3

#99 (1-2) -5.3 Georgia St (L 52-59 vs. Arkansas St)-6

#100 (0-0) -5.5 UNLV ---BYE---+5

#101 (0-0) -5.6 New Mexico ---BYE---+5

#102 (0-2) 9.3 FIU ---BYE---+6

#103 (3-3) -4.8 UTSA (L 16-28 vs. Army)+0

#104 (1-3) -7.8 East Carolina (L 23-27 vs. Navy)-4

#105 (0-3) -18 Vanderbilt ---BYE----4

#106 (0-0) -24.6 Rutgers ---BYE----4

#107 (2-3) -2.4 North Texas (W 52-35 vs. Middle Tennessee)+4

#108 (0-0) -8.4 Rice ---BYE---+2

#109 (1-5) -4 Middle Tennessee (L 35-52 vs. North Texas)-10

#110 (1-4) -6.7 USF (L 37-39 vs. Temple)-6

#111 (1-5) -7.7 Texas St (L 20-30 vs. South Alabama)-2

#112 (3-2) -15.1 UTEP ---BYE---+2

#113 (0-4) -17.3 Kansas (L 17-38 vs. West Virginia)-1

#114 (0-5) -12.1 La Monroe ---BYE---+1

#115 (0-1) -25.1 UMass (L 0-41 vs. Ga Southern)-2

#116 (0-1) -26.4 Ohio ---BYE---+0

#117 (0-1) -26.4 Western Michigan ---BYE---+0

#118 (0-1) -26.4 Buffalo ---BYE---+0

#119 (0-1) -26.4 Toledo ---BYE---+0

#120 (0-1) -26.4 Eastern Michigan ---BYE---+0

#121 (0-1) -26.4 Miami(OH) ---BYE---+0

#122 (0-1) -26.4 Northern Illinois ---BYE---+0

#123 (0-1) -26.4 Central Michigan ---BYE---+0

#124 (0-1) -26.4 Ball St ---BYE---+0

#125 (0-1) -26.4 Kent St ---BYE---+0

#126 (0-1) -26.4 Old Dominion ---BYE---+0

#127 (0-1) -26.4 New Mexico St ---BYE---+0

#128 (0-1) -26.4 Bowling Green ---BYE---+0

#129 (0-1) -26.4 Akron ---BYE---+0

#130 (0-1) -26.4 UConn ---BYE---+0

100% (11-0)+W Clemson (40%)

100% (11-0)+W Notre Dame (2%)

100% (8-0)+W Penn State (4%)

100% (8-0)+W Wisconsin (3%)

100% (8-0)+W Boise St (5%)

99% (10-0)+W Alabama (41%)

99% (8-0)+W Air Force (7%)

99% (10-0)+W OK State (4%)

99% (6-0)+W Oregon (5%)

99% (8-0)+W Ohio St (25%)

99% (8-0)+W Michigan (1%)

99% (6-0)+W Washington (10%)

97% (10-1)+W Miami (2%)

97% (6-0)+W USC (2%)

96% (6-0)+W Utah (10%)

95% (10-1)+W Clemson (30%)

92% (10-0)      BYU (42%)

87% (11-0)+L  Clemson (8%)

87% (10-1)+W Notre Dame (8%)

80% (7-1)+W Boise St (18%)

78% (11-0)+W SMU (4%)

75% (9-1)+W Georgia (7%)

73% (7-1)+W Utah St (2%)

72% (9-1)+W Alabama (27%)

69% (8-0)+L  Boise St (2%)

65% (11-0)+L  Notre Dame (5%)

63% (7-1)+W Michigan (3%)

55% (10-0)+L  Alabama (14%)

55% (7-1)+W Wyoming (2%)

54% (9-1)+W Iowa St (1%)

53% (7-1)+W Penn State (9%)

53% (9-1)+W OK State (13%)

50% (7-1)+W Air Force (15%)

50% (7-1)+W San Diego St (1%)

49% (7-1)      Boise St (1%)

49% (9-1)+W Kansas St (1%)

49% (10-1)      Miami (1%)

45% (7-1)+W Iowa (3%)

42% (9-2)+W Miami (2%)

41% (7-1)+W Wisconsin (9%)

40% (8-0)+L  Air Force (3%)

40% (10-0)+L  OK State (2%)

39% (8-0)+W FAU (8%)

38% (9-2)+W Virginia Tech (1%)

35% (9-2)+W Clemson (4%)

33% (7-1)+W Ohio St (21%)

32% (10-1)+L  Virginia Tech (1%)

28% (8-0)+L  Penn State (2%)

26% (10-1)+L  Miami (7%)

25% (7-1)+W Fresno St (2%)

24% (10-1)      Notre Dame (2%)

21% (5-1)+W Wash St (3%)

20% (10-0)+W Marshall (23%)

18% (8-0)+L  Iowa (2%)

16% (9-2)+W North Carolina (1%)

16% (7-1)      Air Force (6%)

16% (9-2)+W Notre Dame (3%)

16% (10-1)+L  Clemson (7%)

13% (7-1)      Michigan (7%)

13% (8-0)+L  Ohio St (7%)

12% (10-0)      Liberty (1%)

11% (8-0)+L  Wisconsin (5%)

11% (7-1)      Penn State (11%)

9% (9-2)      Virginia Tech (7%)

8% (5-1)+W Oregon (10%)

8% (8-0)+L  Fresno St (1%)

8% (5-1)+W USC (5%)

7% (10-1)+L  Notre Dame (19%)

7% (5-1)+W Stanford (1%)

7% (5-1)+W Washington (15%)

6% (6-2)+W Utah St (3%)

6% (10-1)+L  North Carolina (2%)

5% (9-2)      Miami (19%)

5% (6-2)+W Boise St (14%)

5% (6-0)+L  Wash St (1%)

4% (5-1)+W Arizona St (2%)

4% (9-1)+W Memphis (9%)

4% (7-1)      Iowa (1%)

4% (9-1)+W Cincinnati (4%)

3% (9-1)      BYU (47%)

3% (7-1)+L  Boise St (7%)

3% (7-1)+L  Utah St (3%)

3% (7-1)      Wisconsin (3%)

3% (7-1)      Ohio St (15%)

3% (6-2)+W Michigan (1%)

3% (9-1)      Texas A*M (6%)

2% (9-2)      Clemson (4%)

2% (9-2)+L  Virginia Tech (5%)

2% (8-2)+W Georgia (10%)

2% (8-2)+W Alabama (5%)

2% (6-2)+W Wyoming (3%)

2% (10-1)+W SMU (13%)

2% (10-1)+L  NC State (2%)

2% (5-1)+W Utah (14%)

2% (6-0)+L  Oregon (4%)

2% (5-1)      Wash St (3%)

1% (6-0)+L  Washington (5%)

1% (8-2)+W Iowa St (8%)

1% (6-0)+L  Arizona St (1%)

1% (8-2)+W OK State (18%)

1% (11-0)+L  SMU (4%)

1% (9-2)+L  Miami (10%)

1% (6-2)+W San Diego St (5%)

1% (9-1)+L  OK State (7%)

0% (5-1)      Washington (13%)

0% (7-1)      Minnesota (1%)

0% (8-2)+W Florida (2%)

0% (6-2)+W Air Force (6%)

0% (6-0)+L  Utah (9%)

0% (6-0)+L  USC (3%)

0% (9-2)      Notre Dame (22%)

0% (9-1)+L  Alabama (8%)

0% (5-1)      Stanford (2%)

0% (5-1)      USC (9%)

0% (6-2)      Boise St (12%)

0% (9-1)+L  Georgia (19%)

0% (5-1)      Oregon (9%)

0% (6-2)+W Fresno St (2%)

0% (7-1)+L  Wyoming (4%)

0% (7-1)+L  Penn State (5%)

0% (7-1)+L  San Diego St (5%)

0% (7-1)+L  Air Force (9%)

0% (6-2)+W Iowa (3%)

0% (8-2)+W Oklahoma (3%)

0% (9-2)      North Carolina (11%)

0% (5-1)      Utah (9%)

0% (6-2)+W Wisconsin (5%)

0% (8-2)+W Kansas St (6%)

0% (10-1)+W Louisiana (7%)

0% (10-1)+W App St (7%)

0% (7-1)+L  Fresno St (8%)

0% (9-1)+W Marshall (17%)

0% (7-1)+L  Iowa (10%)

0% (9-2)      NC State (14%)

0% (8-3)      Virginia Tech (30%)

0% (6-2)      Air Force (21%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP ACC (42%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (41%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP MWC (14%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP Big 12 (4%)

99% 0-loss CHAMP Big Ten (35%)

98% 0-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (30%)

93% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (42%)

80% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (5%)

72% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (35%)

67% 1-loss at large ACC (20%)

62% 1-loss CHAMP MWC (44%)

52% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (16%)

42% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (48%)

40% 1-loss at large Big 12 (2%)

38% 1-loss at large SEC (21%)

31% 1-loss at large MWC (17%)

29% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (13%)

25% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (32%)

13% 0-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (0%)

10% 1-loss at large Big Ten (61%)

7% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (55%)

6% 2-loss at large ACC (121%)

4% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (28%)

3% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (36%)

3% 3-loss CHAMP ACC (0%)

2% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (18%)

1% 1-loss at large AAC (4%)

0% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (80%)

0% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (41%)

0% 2-loss at large MWC (124%)

0% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (15%)

0% 2-loss at large Big 12 (20%)

0% 2-loss at large SEC (77%)

0% 3-loss at large ACC (198%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP Sun Belt (18%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (34%)

0% 2-loss at large Big Ten (178%)

Playoff %

1) 80.64% Clemson

2) 68.95% Alabama

3) 41.01% BYU

4) 33.72% Ohio St

5) 24.09% Boise St

6) 17.94% Air Force

7) 15.69% Notre Dame

8) 12.73% OK State

9) 11.44% Penn State

10) 11.38% Washington

11) 10.75% Utah

12) 7.73% Miami

13) 7.7% Wisconsin

14) 6.35% Oregon

15) 6.27% Georgia

16) 4.88% Marshall

17) 4.75% Michigan

18) 4.13% SMU

19) 3.28% FAU

20) 2.98% Iowa

21) 2.78% USC

22) 2.38% Utah St

23) 2.35% Wyoming

24) 2.25% Virginia Tech

25) 1.91% Wash St

26) 1.44% Fresno St

27) 1.29% San Diego St

28) 1.13% North Carolina

29) 0.99% Iowa St

30) 0.77% Kansas St

31) 0.77% Cincinnati

32) 0.61% NC State

33) 0.53% Arizona St

34) 0.5% Florida

35) 0.43% Memphis

36) 0.4% Stanford

37) 0.34% Texas A*M

38) 0.3% Minnesota

39) 0.29% Hawaii

40) 0.21% Liberty

41) 0.2% California

42) 0.15% Indiana

43) 0.15% UCLA

44) 0.15% Oregon St

45) 0.14% Nebraska

46) 0.14% Houston

47) 0.1% Illinois

48) 0.1% Colorado

49) 0.08% Maryland

50) 0.08% Rutgers

51) 0.08% Arizona

52) 0.07% Northwestern

53) 0.07% Baylor

54) 0.06% Mich St

55) 0.05% Tulsa

56) 0.04% San Jose St

57) 0.03% Purdue

58) 0.03% West Virginia

59) 0.02% Colorado St

60) 0.02% Nevada

61) 0.01% Auburn

62) 0.01% Boston College

63) 0.01% Wake Forest

64) 0.01% Oklahoma

65) 0.01% Louisiana

66) 0.01% App St

Top G5 Champ %

1) 29.75% Boise St

2) 22.22% Air Force

3) 11.84% Marshall

4) 7.07% SMU

5) 5.51% FAU

6) 4.07% Wyoming

7) 3.87% Utah St

8) 3.43% San Diego St

9) 3.37% Memphis

10) 3.03% Fresno St

11) 1.98% Cincinnati

12) 0.72% Hawaii

13) 0.57% Houston

14) 0.49% App St

15) 0.41% Louisiana

16) 0.36% Tulsa

17) 0.26% UCF

18) 0.17% Navy

19) 0.11% UAB

20) 0.1% Colorado St

21) 0.09% Nevada

22) 0.06% San Jose St

23) 0.05% Temple

24) 0.05% Troy

25) 0.02% New Mexico

26) 0.02% UNLV

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*

95.5% Clemson (302/363) *1719*

83.94% Alabama (21/27) *1030*

59.15% Ohio St (699/1146) *407*

45.37% OK State (45/103) *434*

42.67% BYU (4244/7037) *23*

39.01% Boise St (260/596) *666*

32.85% Notre Dame (695/1098) *1192*

32.48% Air Force (297/712) *729*

30.25% Washington (127/411) *120*

29.4% Utah (42/138) *93*

25% Iowa St (0/0) *30*

24.36% Miami (905/1692) *983*

23.85% Georgia (46/81) *236*

22.9% Penn State (527/1145) *217*

22.65% Wisconsin (103/250) *294*

21.82% Kansas St (0/3) *15*

19.99% Oregon (102/331) *98*

11.95% Marshall (5/30) *6*

11.12% USC (45/239) *61*

10.7% Michigan (345/897) *123*

10.32% Iowa (42/152) *125*

8.99% Virginia Tech (361/909) *344*

7.7% Wash St (40/164) *39*

7.64% SMU (0/2) *57*

5.56% North Carolina (180/422) *178*

5.56% FAU (3/20) *2*

5.37% Oklahoma (3/11) *16*

5.29% Utah St (27/126) *115*

5.26% Wyoming (13/61) *106*

4.22% Florida (9/23) *12*

4.2% San Diego St (14/58) *63*

4.09% Memphis (1/1) *71*

3.84% NC State (153/377) *120*

3.65% Fresno St (4/34) *58*

3.62% Arizona St (13/65) *17*

2.96% Texas A*M (212/689) *47*

2.81% West Virginia (2/9) *16*

2.59% Texas (0/0) *5*

2.57% Stanford (12/87) *11*

2.36% Cincinnati (2/8) *36*

1.75% Baylor (1/3) *4*

1.69% Minnesota (16/79) *12*

1.38% California (6/24) *10*

1.13% Colorado (0/25) *0*

0.86% TCU (0/8) *1*

0.85% Hawaii (0/12) *13*

0.58% Nebraska (0/14) *7*

0.57% UCLA (0/8) *2*

0.57% Houston (0/1) *0*

0.49% App St (0/0) *0*

0.41% Arizona (2/7) *2*

0.41% Louisiana (0/0) *0*

0.38% Coastal Carolina (0/1) *0*

0.37% Indiana (7/39) *8*

0.37% Tulsa (0/0) *1*

0.37% Liberty (32/157) *5*

0.32% Oregon St (4/8) *0*

0.3% UCF (1/2) *3*

0.29% Auburn (6/14) *0*

0.28% Kentucky (0/0) *0*

0.28% Illinois (2/2) *0*

0.26% Northwestern (5/7) *0*

0.24% South Carolina (2/2) *0*

0.2% Mich St (4/16) *0*

0.19% Purdue (1/5) *0*

0.17% Missouri (0/0) *0*

0.17% Navy (0/0) *0*

0.13% Colorado St (0/8) *3*

0.13% Nevada (0/0) *4*

0.12% LSU (0/3) *0*

0.12% Rutgers (3/4) *2*

0.11% UAB (0/0) *0*

0.1% San Jose St (1/2) *3*

0.09% Maryland (0/1) *1*

0.08% Tennessee (1/5) *0*

0.08% Boston College (2/5) *2*

0.07% Wake Forest (1/12) *3*

0.05% Arkansas (1/4) *0*

0.05% Temple (0/0) *0*

0.05% Troy (0/0) *0*

0.03% Vanderbilt (0/0) *0*

0.03% Kansas (0/0) *0*

0.02% Georgia Tech (0/0) *0*

0.02% New Mexico (0/1) *0*

0.02% UNLV (0/0) *0*

0.01% Florida St (1/1) *0*

0 BYE

724 Florida

4263 Georgia

17 Tennessee

21 South Carolina

9 Kentucky

5 Missouri

0 Vanderbilt

9652 Alabama

36 LSU

80 Auburn

12 Arkansas

0 Ole Miss

1417 Texas A*M

0 Miss St

0 Florida St

9774 Clemson

44 Boston College

104 Wake Forest

0 Louisville

1691 NC State

0 Syracuse

2 Pittsburgh

5722 Miami

1 Georgia Tech

3239 Virginia Tech

0 Virginia

1932 North Carolina

0 Duke

6616 Notre Dame

21 Maryland

4073 Penn State

2671 Michigan

74 Mich St

7400 Ohio St

16 Rutgers

140 Indiana

3265 Wisconsin

34 Illinois

35 Purdue

43 Northwestern

365 Minnesota

1582 Iowa

108 Nebraska

180 West Virginia

0 Kansas

975 Kansas St

1279 Iowa St

403 Oklahoma

4779 OK State

56 TCU

103 Texas

0 Texas Tech

118 Baylor

122 Colorado

38 Arizona

474 Arizona St

1579 USC

56 UCLA

3278 Utah

159 California

2590 Oregon

40 Oregon St

409 Stanford

3826 Washington

898 Wash St

0 UConn

689 Cincinnati

0 USF

114 UCF

14 Temple

0 East Carolina

197 Houston

2201 SMU

1318 Memphis

123 Tulsa

0 Tulane

85 Navy

8623 BYU

4921 Air Force

55 Colorado St

1082 Wyoming

7 New Mexico

5848 Boise St

1233 Utah St

7 UNLV

898 San Diego St

30 Nevada

707 Fresno St

174 Hawaii

25 San Jose St

0 La Tech

0 UTEP

0 Rice

0 North Texas

0 UTSA

57 UAB

0 Southern Miss

0 Old Dominion

0 WKU

0 Charlotte

2845 Marshall

0 Middle Tennessee

0 FIU

1165 FAU

8 Army

0 UMass

0 Buffalo

0 Ohio

0 Bowling Green

0 Kent St

0 Miami(OH)

0 Akron

0 Central Michigan

0 Western Michigan

0 Northern Illinois

0 Toledo

0 Ball St

0 Eastern Michigan

219 Liberty

0 New Mexico St

15 Troy

0 Arkansas St

284 Louisiana

0 La Monroe

0 South Alabama

0 Texas St

0 Georgia St

4 Ga Southern

384 App St

118 Coastal Carolina

Crayton · 10-20-2020 02:27 PM

(Champs/Appearances) rounded down%

SEC
Alabama (73/97)
Georgia (21/70)
Florida (4/25)
Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M (0/1)
<1% all others

ACC
Clemson (75/92)
Notre Dame (13/48)
Miami (5/24)
North Carolina (1/12)
NC State (1/10)
Virginia Tech (1/10)

Big 12
OK State (40/63)
Iowa St (24/57)
Kansas St (21/47)
Oklahoma (5/9)
West Virginia (2/7)
Texas (2/6)
TCU (0/2)
Baylor (0/1)

American
SMU (31/60)
Memphis (25/38)
Navy (14/35)
Cincinnati (11/23)
Houston (5/15)
Tulsa (5/13)
UCF (4/9)
Temple (0/2)

Crayton · 10-20-2020 03:39 PM

December 5th Standings (sim 131)

ACC:
#1 Clemson (11-0, 10-0; 479-190)
#6 North Carolina (8-2, 8-2; 300-210) lost to Duke 24-27
#7 Miami (8-3) lost to NC State 19-22 and North Crolina 21-22
#9 Virginia Tech (7-3) lost to Miami 6-45 and Clemson 31-40
#14 Boston College (8-3) lost to Clemson 10-55
#15 Notre Dame (7-3) lost to Clemson 17-52, Boston College 28-35, and North Carolina 20-23

SEC:
#2 Alabama (10-0; 311-181)
#10 Georgia (8-2; 311-195) lost to Kentucky 24-31

Pac-12:
#4 Washington (5-0; 147-51)
#5 Utah (5-0; 187-105)

Big Ten:
#8 Penn State (6-1; 255-142) lost to Indiana 24-27
#11 Wisconsin (6-1; 210-137) lost to Nebraska 24-35
#25 Iowa (5-2; 182-143) lost to Mich St 17-20 and Penn State 10-22
#27 Ohio St (5-2; 171-168) lost to Penn State 21-43 and Illinois 19-20
#29 Mich St (5-2; 192-171) lost to Indiana 31-32 and Ohio State 28-30

Big 12
#19 Kansas St (7-3, 7-2; 319-229) lost to WVU 28-41 and Baylor 17-27
#23 Oklahoma (7-3, 6-3; 286-192) lost to TCU 23-30
#24 OK State (6-3, 5-3; 243-209) lost to Texas 14-28, KSU 16-39, and OU 21-24
#31 Iowa St (6-4, 6-3; 278-214) lost to OSU 21-24, KSU 14-23, and UT 20-21)

Top Non-P5 Teams
#3 Boise St (7-0, 6-0; 213-126)
#12 Air Force (6-2, 4-2; 312-140) lost to Boise 10-19 and Utah St 24-31
#13 App St (9-1, 7-0; 358-203)
#16 BYU (8-1, 8-1; 307-145) lost to Boise 16-17
#17 Cincinnati (8-2, 6-2; 311-193) lost to UCF 16-19 and Temple 30-31
#18 Memphis (8-2, 6-2; 357-171) lost to Cincinnati 28-39
#20 Marshall (9-1, 6-1; 346-199) lost to FAU 28-37
#22 FAU (6-1, 5-1; 224-151) lost to FIU 21-24
#37 Fresno St (5-2, 5-2; 186-176) lost to SJSU 24-27 and SDSU 21-35

December 12th results:
#3 Boise St completes their season undefeated, beating Wyoming 28-21
#4 Washington fails to complete an undefeated regular season, falling to Oregon 21-24
#5 Utah successfully goes undefeated, obliterating Colorado 60-10
#6 North Carolina conquers WCU 51-21 en route to the ACC Championship
#8 Penn State clinches the Big Ten East, beating Michigan State 32-17
#9 Virginia Tech beats Virginia 28-17
#11 Wisconsin defeats Iowa for the Big Ten West crown, 20-17
#13 App State loses to rival Georgia Southern, again, 17-28
#15 Notre Dame beats Wake Forest 53-6
#16 BYU upends SDSU, 51-21, finishing 'close' to a NY6 berth
#22 FAU destroys Southern Miss 56-10 to beat out Marshall for the CUSA East crown
#24 OK State defeats Baylor 33-28 to steal the 2nd Big 12 title game slot
#37 Fresno State slips by New Mexico, 28-21, to secure a spot in the MWCG by virtue of win% over Air Force.

December 19th matchups // results
#1 Clemson (11-0) vs. #8 North Carolina (8-2) // 42-21
#2 Alabama (10-0) vs. #9 Georgia (8-2) // 24-39
#3 Utah (6-0) vs. #7 Washington (5-1) // 30-27
#4 Boise St (8-0) vs. #38 Fresno St (6-2) // 16-19
#5 Penn State (7-1) vs. #6 Wisconsin (7-1) // 32-17
#12 FAU (7-1) vs. #33 UAB (9-2) // 21-28
#15 Cincinnati (8-2) vs. #20 Memphis (8-2) // 31-36
#18 OK State (7-3) vs. #22 Kansas St (7-3) // 17-20
#25 App St (9-2) vs. #52 Ark St (7-4) // 36-12

Playoffs // results
#1 Clemson (12-0) vs. #4 Georgia (9-2) // 34-10
#2 Utah (7-0) vs. #3 Penn State (8-1) // 17-7
#1 Clemson (13-0) vs. #2 Utah (8-0) // 20-17

Georgia passing Alabama for the 4th spot may have been controversial; the two teams were 1-1 against each other, Georgia won the conference yet lost an additional game to Kentucky. The committee went with Georgia based off perceived relative strength (the Bulldogs had just won, and looked better against most common opponents).

Vs. common opponents, Georgia had the edge:
Alabama was +29 vs. Kentucky
Alabama was +12 vs. Missouri
Georgia was +10 vs. Auburn
Georgia was +14 vs. Miss St
Georgia was +18 vs. Arkansas
Georgia was +21 vs. Tennessee

New Years Six (manual bowl pairings)
Orange: #6 Miami (8-3) vs. #5 Alabama (10-1)
Cotton: #10 Wisconsin (7-2) vs. #7 North Carolina (9-3)
Fiesta: #8 Boise St (8-1) vs. #15 Kansas St (8-3)
Peach: #12 Memphis (9-2) vs. #9 Virginia Tech (8-3)
next 2: #11 Washington (5-2), #13 BYU (9-1)

quo vadis · 10-20-2020 05:01 PM

(10-20-2020 03:39 PM)Crayton Wrote: December 19th matchups // results
#1 Clemson (11-0) vs. #8 North Carolina (8-2) // 42-21
#2 Alabama (10-0) vs. #9 Georgia (8-2) // 24-39
#3 Utah (6-0) vs. #7 Washington (5-1) // 30-27
#4 Boise St (8-0) vs. #38 Fresno St (6-2) // 16-19
#5 Penn State (7-1) vs. #6 Wisconsin (7-1) // 17-32
#12 FAU (7-1) vs. #33 UAB (9-2) // 21-28
#15 Cincinnati (8-2) vs. #20 Memphis (8-2) // 31-36
#18 OK State (7-3) vs. #22 Kansas St (7-3) // 17-20
#25 App St (9-2) vs. #52 Ark St (7-4) // 36-12

Playoffs // results
#1 Clemson (12-0) vs. #4 Georgia (9-2) // 34-10
#2 Utah (7-0) vs. #3 Penn State (8-1) // 17-7
#1 Clemson (13-0) vs. #2 Utah (8-0) // 20-17

Georgia passing Alabama for the 4th spot may have been controversial; the two teams were 1-1 against each other, Georgia won the conference yet lost an additional game to Kentucky. The committee went with Georgia based off perceived relative strength (the Bulldogs had just won, and looked better against most common opponents).

IMO, if the results turn out as you indicate, Alabama would get the 4th playoff spot over Penn State. The playoffs would be Clemson, Utah, Georgia, and Alabama.

They're not going to put a Penn State team in with the same number of losses and two less wins over an Alabama team that beat Georgia, one of the playoff teams, B10 champs or not.

Nerdlinger · 10-20-2020 05:09 PM

BYU wouldn't qualify for the G5 spot in a 5-1-2 CFP. They'd have to make one of the two at-large spots.

quo vadis · 10-20-2020 05:19 PM

(10-20-2020 05:09 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote: BYU wouldn't qualify for the G5 spot in a 5-1-2 CFP. They'd have to make one of the two at-large spots.

If I understand correctly, he's not positing a 5-1-2 CFP, just the existing 4-team CFP. BYU wouldn't qualify for the G5 spot under that either, and I see it he has Boise in the G5 spot meaning BYU would be getting an at-large spot. Anyway, I think his pairings are pretty crazy, as he is saying that there will be more G5 - type schools in the NY6 and playoffs (Memphis, Boise, and BYU) than SEC schools (Alabama, Georgia). Wake me up when that happens, LOL.

But you raise an interesting question: If the playoffs are expanded to 5-1-2, with a guaranteed spot for the G5 in the playoffs, would there also be a guaranteed G5 spot in the remaining major bowls?

I would think not. The P5 would not want to give the G5 two spots among the major bowls/playoffs.

Threaded Mode \| Linear Mode The Year That Is (Week 7: Alabama and Clemson cruise toward playoff berths)
Author	Message