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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #41
RE: College Basketball Tiers
I actually did this about 5 years ago in a lot of detail. 7 tiers. Here are the first 3 tiers.

If I was doing it again, I'd probably make a few changes (such as moving Virginia up 2 tiers to bottom of Tier 2, moving Wichita and San Diego State up to 3rd tier and dropping Temple and UNLV down to 4th tier).

Top tier:
North Carolina
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Duke

Top tier, but not a notch below:
Michigan State
Connecticut
Louisville
Michigan State
Syracuse

2nd tier:
Georgetown
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Villanova
(middle of 2nd tier)
Arizona
Cincinnati
Illinois
(bottom of 2nd tier)
Arkansas
Marquette
Maryland
NC State
Florida

3rd tier
(top of 3rd tier)
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Louisiana State
West Virginia
(middle of 3rd tier)
Michigan
Nevada - Las Vegas
Oklahoma
Purdue
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin
(bottom of 3rd tier)
Arizona State
Boston College
Brigham Young
Butler
California
Creighton
Gonzaga
Hartford
Iowa State
Memphis
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
St. John's
Stanford
Temple
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Xavier

The next tier had 41 teams in it.
09-14-2020 07:05 PM
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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Post: #42
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I actually did this about 5 years ago in a lot of detail. 7 tiers. Here are the first 3 tiers.

If I was doing it again, I'd probably make a few changes (such as moving Virginia up 2 tiers to bottom of Tier 2, moving Wichita and San Diego State up to 3rd tier and dropping Temple and UNLV down to 4th tier).

Top tier:
North Carolina
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Duke

Top tier, but not a notch below:
Michigan State
Connecticut
Louisville
Michigan State
Syracuse

2nd tier:
Georgetown
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Villanova
(middle of 2nd tier)
Arizona
Cincinnati
Illinois
(bottom of 2nd tier)
Arkansas
Marquette
Maryland
NC State
Florida

3rd tier
(top of 3rd tier)
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Louisiana State
West Virginia
(middle of 3rd tier)
Michigan
Nevada - Las Vegas
Oklahoma
Purdue
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin
(bottom of 3rd tier)
Arizona State
Boston College
Brigham Young
Butler
California
Creighton
Gonzaga
Hartford
Iowa State
Memphis
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
St. John's
Stanford
Temple
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Xavier

The next tier had 41 teams in it.

Hartford?
09-14-2020 07:15 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #43
RE: College Basketball Tiers
Lots of interesting (and, IMO, rather accurate) assessments and groupings.

Two programs not mentioned much within this thread but that deserve some props: Murray State and Western Kentucky.
09-14-2020 08:49 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #44
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-14-2020 07:15 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I actually did this about 5 years ago in a lot of detail. 7 tiers. Here are the first 3 tiers.

If I was doing it again, I'd probably make a few changes (such as moving Virginia up 2 tiers to bottom of Tier 2, moving Wichita and San Diego State up to 3rd tier and dropping Temple and UNLV down to 4th tier).

Top tier:
North Carolina
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Duke

Top tier, but not a notch below:
Michigan State
Connecticut
Louisville
Michigan State
Syracuse

2nd tier:
Georgetown
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Villanova
(middle of 2nd tier)
Arizona
Cincinnati
Illinois
(bottom of 2nd tier)
Arkansas
Marquette
Maryland
NC State
Florida

3rd tier
(top of 3rd tier)
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Louisiana State
West Virginia
(middle of 3rd tier)
Michigan
Nevada - Las Vegas
Oklahoma
Purdue
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin
(bottom of 3rd tier)
Arizona State
Boston College
Brigham Young
Butler
California
Creighton
Gonzaga
Hartford
Iowa State
Memphis
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
St. John's
Stanford
Temple
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Xavier

The next tier had 41 teams in it.

Hartford?

He almost certainly meant "Houston."
09-14-2020 08:50 PM
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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Post: #45
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-14-2020 08:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:15 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I actually did this about 5 years ago in a lot of detail. 7 tiers. Here are the first 3 tiers.

If I was doing it again, I'd probably make a few changes (such as moving Virginia up 2 tiers to bottom of Tier 2, moving Wichita and San Diego State up to 3rd tier and dropping Temple and UNLV down to 4th tier).

Top tier:
North Carolina
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Duke

Top tier, but not a notch below:
Michigan State
Connecticut
Louisville
Michigan State
Syracuse

2nd tier:
Georgetown
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Villanova
(middle of 2nd tier)
Arizona
Cincinnati
Illinois
(bottom of 2nd tier)
Arkansas
Marquette
Maryland
NC State
Florida

3rd tier
(top of 3rd tier)
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Louisiana State
West Virginia
(middle of 3rd tier)
Michigan
Nevada - Las Vegas
Oklahoma
Purdue
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin
(bottom of 3rd tier)
Arizona State
Boston College
Brigham Young
Butler
California
Creighton
Gonzaga
Hartford
Iowa State
Memphis
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
St. John's
Stanford
Temple
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Xavier

The next tier had 41 teams in it.

Hartford?

He almost certainly meant "Houston."

I was hoping so, if not I was prepared to lobby for our inclusion lol

Fun fact: Hartford is one of 45 schools without an NCAAT appearance.
09-14-2020 09:22 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #46
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I did this about 5 years ago in a lot of detail. 7 tiers. Here are the first 3 tiers.


Top tier:


North Carolina
Indiana [b](NOTE: italics indicate slight differences in tier groupings)

Kansas
Kentucky
Duke

Thanks for sharing these lists. It makes for an even more interesting discussion.

A lot of people would agree with most of these programs being in the top tier for the past few decades (since 1975, or so).

However, the the discussion above, we were trying to come up with a list of the true "blue blood" MBB schools. Some CBB fans would say that, in order to be a true "blue blood," a school probably needs to have had elite teams dating back to the 1950s, fairly soon after the first NIT and NCAA tournaments were held, and when AP Top 25 polls first came into existence.

In that case, UCLA would be among the blue-est of the "blue blood" schools (behind only UNC and Duke), if the criterion is on the number of top 20 MBB teams over the 7 decades since 1949, and Indiana would be a notch lower (2nd tier).

UNC (50 NCAA bids; 50 top 25 teams since 1956)
Duke (43 NCAA bids; 47 top 25 teams since 1952)
+UCLA (47 NCAA bids; 44 top 25 teams since 1949)
Kansas (48 NCAA bids; 44 top 25 teams since 1950)
Kentucky (58 NCAA bids; 43 top 25 teams since 1949)


(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Top tier, less than a notch below:

Michigan State
Connecticut
Louisville
Syracuse

If the emphasis is on the number of top 20 MBB teams since 1949, then Arizona, Illinois, and Indiana would join Michigan State, Louisville, and Syracuse in this subset of "top tier" programs, and Connecticut would be listed in a somewhat lower tier.

Louisville (39 NCAA bids; 33 top 25 teams since 1952)
+Indiana (39 NCAA bids; 27 top 25 teams since 1950)
Syracuse (40 NCAA bids; 27 top 25 teams since 1973)
+Arizona (33 NCAA bids; 26 top 25 teams since 1948)
+Illinois (30 NCAA bids; 24 top 25 teams since 1949)
Michigan State (33 NCAA bids; 24 top 25 teams since 1957)

(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  (upper) 2nd tier:

Georgetown
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Villanova

If the number of final top 25 ranked teams were to be among the criteria for the upper 2nd tier, then Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Maryland, and Michigan might belong in this group alongside OSU and Villanova, while Georgetown and OK St., like Uconn, would be in a slightly lower tier.

Villanova* (38 NCAA bids; 23 top 25 teams since 1949)
+Cincinnati* (33 NCAA bids; 23 top 25 teams since 1951) (*indicates non-P5 school)
+Notre Dame (36 NCAA bids; 23 top 25 teams since 1953)
+Maryland (27 NCAA bids; 23 top 25 teams since 1954)

Ohio State (29 NCAA bids; 22 top 25 teams since 1949)
+Michigan (25 NCAA bids; 22 top 25 teams since 1964)


=============================================

Perhaps most CBB fans might agree, more or less, that the 17 teams listed above - - and Marquette (see below) might be MBB "blue bloods," to a greater or lesser extent, or at least, to have the potential to be regarded as "blue blood" MBB schools within the next 5-10 years. Uniquely, these 17 teams (a) have competed in at least 25 NCAA tournaments, (b)have had at least 20 top 25 teams, and © have had 1+ Final AP Top 25 team(s) before 1960 - - and/or have competed in at least one NCAA tournament - - before 1960.

Although Michigan didn't achieve their first Final AP Top 25 ranking until 1964, they would meet the above criteria, albeit slightly less stringently, by virtue of having competed in the 1948 NCAA Tournament.

Marquette would meet both of the above criteria, with their 33 NCAA bids and 20 Final AP Top 25 teams. Utah (29 NCAA bids & 20 final top 25 teams) and Purdue (30 NCAA bids & 19 final top 25 teams) could meet the criteria within the next season or two with either one more NCAA bid or one more finish in the AP Top 25.


The consensus or potential blue blood schools might then include UNC, Duke, UCLA, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Louisville, Syracuse, Arizona, Illinois, Michigan State, Villanova, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Maryland, Michigan, and Marquette.

It seems likely that first five schools on the list might be widely considered to be among the most indisputable, or "truest of the true" MBB blue bloods.


=============================================


.

(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  (middle of 2nd tier)

Arizona
Cincinnati
Illinois

These three BB schools would be ranked slightly higher (see above),
as either "top tier" or "upper 2nd tier schools, if the number of final top 25 teams were used to classify them.


(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  (bottom of 2nd tier)

Arkansas
Marquette
Maryland
NC State
Florida

Utah, Purdue and Oklahoma State would join Marquette and NC State in this group, if the categories were based on the total # of final top 25 teams. Maryland would be an upper 2nd tier program, while Arkansas and Florida would be considered 3rd tier programs.

+Utah (29 NCAA bids; 20 top 25 teams since 1949)
Marquette* (33 NCAA bids; 20 top 25 teams since 1955)
+Purdue (30 NCAA bids; 19 top 25 teams since 1955)
+Oklahoma (29 NCAA bids; 19 top 25 teams since 1949)
NC State (25 NCAA bids; 17 top 25 teams since 1949)
+Oklahoma State (28 NCAA bids; 17 top 25 teams since 1949)


(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  3rd tier
(top of 3rd tier)


Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Louisiana State
West Virginia

Georgetown, Arkansas, and UConn (grouped in a slightly higher tier, above) - - as well as Wake Forest, St. John's, Memphis, and New Mexico - - are among the schools that would join West Virginia and Kansas State in this group, based on the number of final top 25 teams per school. GT and LSU (see below) would be in a somewhat lower tier.

West Virginia (29 NCAA bids; 16 top 25 teams since 1952)
+Wake Forest (23 NCAA bids; 16 top 25 teams since 1953)
+New Mexico* (15 NCAA bids; 16 top 25 teams since 1968)
+Oklahoma (32 NCAA bids; 16 top 25 teams since 1979)
Kansas State (31 NCAA bids; 15 top 25 teams since 1950)
+St. John's* (29 NCAA bids; 15 top 25 teams since 1950)
+Memphis* (20 NCAA bids; 15 top 25 teams since 1957)
+Georgetown* (30 NCAA bids; 15 top 25 teams since 1980)
+Arkansas (32 NCAA bids; 15 top 25 teams since 1977)
+Connecticut* (32 NCAA bids; 15 top 25 teams since 1989)


(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  =============================================

The schools listed above include a few that might be considered to show clear signs of having the potential to become MBB "blue blood" potential within the next 5-10 years, by virtue of having competed in at least 25 NCAA tournaments and having had at least 15 Final AP Top 25 teams, with at least one of these teams finishing in the top 25 or playing in the NCAA tournament team before 1960.

Those teams include Kansas State, NC State, Oklahoma State, Purdue, St. John's, Utah, and West Virginia. Purdue and Utah are already only one NCAA bid or one Final AP Top 25 ranking away from becoming the 19th and 20th schools on the what might be regarded as a consensus list of blue (or blue-ish) blood schools.

Wake Forest could join this "semi-blue blood" group within the next 3-5 seasons, by earning two more NCAA bids, while Memphis might be able to qualify for the potential "future blue bloods" list by earning 5+ more NCAA bids by 2030.

Arkansas (1st top 25 finish in 1977), Connecticut (1st top 25 in 1989), Georgetown (1st top 25 finish in 1980), and Oklahoma (1st top 25 finish in 1979) might be considered potential "future blue bloods" by some, albeit perhaps to fewer fans or in a slightly less convincing way, because none of them had a Final AP Top 25 team before 1977 (and not until 1989, in the case of Connecticut).

=============================================



(middle of 3rd tier)

Michigan
Nevada - Las Vegas
Oklahoma
Purdue
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin

Florida, FSU, Gonzaga, Missouri, Virginia, Pitt, Tennessee, and former MVC power Bradley would join Texas, UNLV and Wisconsin in this group,
while Michigan, Utah, and Purdue (see above) would be ranked slightly higher, if the basis were the total # of final top 25 teams.

Wisconsin (24 NCAA bids; 14 top 25 teams since 1950)
UNLV* (20 NCAA bids; 14 top 25 teams since 1975)
+Virginia (23 NCAA bids; 13 top 25 teams since 1972)
+Pitt (26 NCAA bids; 13 top 25 teams since 1974)
+Bradley* (9 NCAA bids; 12 top 25 teams since 1949)
+Tennessee (22 NCAA bids; 12 top 25 teams since 1967)
+Florida (20 NCAA bids; 12 top 25 teams since 1994)
+Missouri (26 NCAA bids; 12 top 25 teams since 1973)
+Florida State (17 NCAA bids; 11 top 25 teams since 1970)

Texas (34 NCAA bids; 11 top 25 teams since 1978)
+Gonzaga* (22 NCAA bids; 11 top 25 teams since 2002)

(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  (bottom of 3rd tier)

Arizona State
Boston College
Brigham Young
Butler
California
Creighton
Gonzaga

Hartford
Iowa State
Memphis
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh

St. John's
Stanford
Temple
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest

Xavier

Dayton, DePaul, Houston, Minnesota, San Francisco, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, and Wichita State
are among the schools that would join AZ State, BYU, Iowa State, Stanford, Temple, and Xavier in this group if the categories were based on the total number of final top 25 teams per school.

Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Pitt, Memphis, Missouri, St. John's, Tennessee, and Wake Forest would be in a somewhat higher tier or sub-tier (see above), while a few others, such as Boston College, Butler, California, Creighton, and (possible typo) Hartford would be in a lower tier or sub-tier.

+Western Kentucky* (22 NCAA bids; 10 top 25 teams since 1949)

BYU* (29 NCAA bids; 10 top 25 teams since 1951)
+DePaul* (18 NCAA bids; 10 top 25 teams since 1953)
+LSU (22 NCAA bids; 10 top 25 teams since 1953)
+San Francisco* (16 NCAA bids; 9 top 25 teams since 1949)
+Holy Cross* (13 NCAA bids; 9 top 25 teams since 1950)
+Minnesota (10 NCAA bids; 9 top 25 teams since 1949)
+Vanderbilt (15 NCAA bids; 9 top 25 teams since 1955)
+Dayton* (18 NCAA bids; 8 top 25 teams since 1950)

+Southern California (17 NCAA bids; 8 top 25 teams since 1951)
+St. Louis* (10 NCAA bids; 8 top 25 teams since 1949)
+Seton Hall* (13 NCAA bids; 8 top 25 teams since 1952)
[/i]Temple* (33 NCAA bids; 8 top 25 teams since 1956)
+Wichita State* (15 NCAA bids; 8 top 25 teams since 1963)
+Houston* (21 NCAA bids; 8 top 25 teams since 1967)

Xavier* (28 NCAA bids; 8 top 25 teams since 1988)
Stanford (17 NCAA bids; 8 top 25 teams since 1988)
+Duquesne* (5 NCAA bids; 7 top 25 teams since 1950)
+Oregon State (14 NCAA bids; 7 top 25 teams since 1955)
+Auburn (10 NCAA bids; 7 top 25 teams since 1958)
+Georgia Tech (16 NCAA bids; 7 top 25 teams since 1960)

Arizona State (15 NCAA bids; 7 top 25 teams since 1963)
+South Carolina (9 NCAA bids; 7 top 25 teams since 1969)
Iowa State (20 NCAA bids; 7 top 25 teams since 1995)

.

(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
The next tier (Tier 4) had 41 teams in it.

The following schools, which have had 3-6 teams listed among the final AP top 25, might be classified on that basis as Tier 4 teams. This list is not comprehensive.

LaSalle* (12 NCAA bids; 6 top 25 teams since 1950)
Seattle* (11 NCAA bids; 6 top 25 teams since 1952)
St. Bonaventure* (7 NCAA bids; 6 top 25 teams since 1952)
Boston College (18 NCAA bids; 6 top 25 teams since 1967)
Oregon (17 NCAA bids; 6 top 25 teams since 1995)
Penn* (24 NCAA bids; 6 top 25 teams since 1970)
Loyola (IL)* (6 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 1949)
Tulsa* (16 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 1955)
St. Joseph's (PA)* (20 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 1959)
Providence* (20 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 1960)
Davidson* (14 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 1964)
Drake* (4 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 1969)
New Mexico State* (22 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 1969)
Texas Tech (16 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 1976)
UMass* (8 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 1992)
Baylor (9 NCAA bids; 5 top 25 teams since 2010)
Wyoming* (15 NCAA bids; 4 top 25 teams since 1949)
Colorado (14 NCAA bids; 4 top 25 teams since 1955)
SMU* (12 NCAA bids; 4 top 25 teams since 1956)
California (18 NCAA bids; 4 top 25 teams since 1957)
UTEP* (17 NCAA bids; 4 top 25 teams since 1966)
Princeton* (25 NCAA bids; 4 top 25 teams since 1967)
Clemson (11 NCAA bids; 4 top 25 teams since 1987)
Miami (10 NCAA bids; 4 top 25 teams since 1999)
Creighton* (21 NCAA bids; 4 top 25 teams since 2003)
Butler* (16 NCAA bids; 3 top 25 teams since 1949)
TCU (8 NCAA bids; 3 top 25 teams since 1959)
Utah State* (21 NCAA bids; 3 top 25 teams since 1960)
George Washington* (11 NCAA bids; 3 top 25 teams since 1954)


(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  ...(a total of) 7 tiers.

Tiers 5, 6, and 7 must have each had more than 41 teams.

These might be included on the list of fifth-tier schools, based on the total number of final top 25 teams:

Bowling Green* (4 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 1949)
Washington State (6 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 1950)
Santa Clara* (11 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 1953)
Niagara* (3 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 1954)
Penn State (9 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 1954)
NYU* (2 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 1960)
Rutgers (2 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 1976)
Detroit* (2 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 1977)
Mississippi (2 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 1998)
Texas A&M (2 NCAA bids; 2 top 25 teams since 2007)

These might be listed among the 6th tier of BB schools, based on the number of final top 25 ranked teams per school:

Tulane* (3 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1949)
Yale* (5 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1949)
LIU* (7 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1950)
Siena* (6 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1951)
Canisius* (4 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1957)
St. Mary's* (10 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1959)
Fordham* (4 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1971)
Marshall* (5 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1972)
Pepperdine* (13 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1976)
Charlotte* (11 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1977)
VMI* (3 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1977)
Indiana State* (4 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1979)
Iona* (14 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1980)
Idaho* (4 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1982)
VCU* (17 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1985)
Navy* (11 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1986)
Loyola Marymount* (4 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1988)
Nebraska (7 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1991)
Southern Illinois* (10 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 1991)
Northern Iowa* (8 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 2015)
Virginia Tech (11 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 2016)
SUNY-Buffalo* (4 NCAA bids; 1 top 25 team in 2019)

Schools with no Final AP Top 25 teams:

Army
Boise State
Brown
Colorado State
Cornell
Dartmouth
Furman
Harvard
Hawaii
Illinois State
James Madison
Maine
Manhattan
Marist
New Hampshire
Northeastern
Northwestern
Rice
Richmond
URI
Valparaiso
Wagner


Some of these schools that have had no Final AP Top 20 MBB teams have had enough successful seasons that they probably wouldn't be listed in the lowest tier teams based on various other criteria such as RPI rankings, the total number of NCAA tournament visits or the number of teams that have appeared in mid-season top 25 rankings.

.

A partial list of schools with no Final AP Top 25 teams that wouldn't be aptly classified as having lowest tier programs:

Boise State: 7 NCAA visits; 1 mid-season AP top 25 team.

Harvard: 5 NCAA visits; 2 mid-season AP top 25 teams.

Illinois State: 6 NCAA visits; 2 mid-season AP top 25 teams.

Rhode Island: 10 NCAA visits; 5 mid-season AP top 25 teams.

Richmond: 9 NCAA visits; 4 mid-season AP top 25 teams.
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2020 05:21 PM by jedclampett.)
09-14-2020 11:54 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #47
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-14-2020 09:22 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:15 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I actually did this about 5 years ago in a lot of detail. 7 tiers. Here are the first 3 tiers.

If I was doing it again, I'd probably make a few changes (such as moving Virginia up 2 tiers to bottom of Tier 2, moving Wichita and San Diego State up to 3rd tier and dropping Temple and UNLV down to 4th tier).

Top tier:
North Carolina
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Duke

Top tier, but not a notch below:
Michigan State
Connecticut
Louisville
Michigan State
Syracuse

2nd tier:
Georgetown
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Villanova
(middle of 2nd tier)
Arizona
Cincinnati
Illinois
(bottom of 2nd tier)
Arkansas
Marquette
Maryland
NC State
Florida

3rd tier
(top of 3rd tier)
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Louisiana State
West Virginia
(middle of 3rd tier)
Michigan
Nevada - Las Vegas
Oklahoma
Purdue
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin
(bottom of 3rd tier)
Arizona State
Boston College
Brigham Young
Butler
California
Creighton
Gonzaga
Hartford
Iowa State
Memphis
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
St. John's
Stanford
Temple
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Xavier

The next tier had 41 teams in it.

Hartford?

He almost certainly meant "Houston."

I was hoping so, if not I was prepared to lobby for our inclusion lol

Fun fact: Hartford is one of 45 schools without an NCAAT appearance.

Interesting. Did not know. Hartford once had a high-profile player: Vin Baker, who played in the NBA.
09-15-2020 08:40 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #48
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 08:40 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:22 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:15 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I actually did this about 5 years ago in a lot of detail. 7 tiers. Here are the first 3 tiers.

If I was doing it again, I'd probably make a few changes (such as moving Virginia up 2 tiers to bottom of Tier 2, moving Wichita and San Diego State up to 3rd tier and dropping Temple and UNLV down to 4th tier).

Top tier:
North Carolina
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Duke

Top tier, but not a notch below:
Michigan State
Connecticut
Louisville
Michigan State
Syracuse

2nd tier:
Georgetown
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Villanova
(middle of 2nd tier)
Arizona
Cincinnati
Illinois
(bottom of 2nd tier)
Arkansas
Marquette
Maryland
NC State
Florida

3rd tier
(top of 3rd tier)
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Louisiana State
West Virginia
(middle of 3rd tier)
Michigan
Nevada - Las Vegas
Oklahoma
Purdue
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin
(bottom of 3rd tier)
Arizona State
Boston College
Brigham Young
Butler
California
Creighton
Gonzaga
Hartford
Iowa State
Memphis
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
St. John's
Stanford
Temple
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Xavier

The next tier had 41 teams in it.

Hartford?

He almost certainly meant "Houston."

I was hoping so, if not I was prepared to lobby for our inclusion lol

Fun fact: Hartford is one of 45 schools without an NCAAT appearance.

Interesting. Did not know. Hartford once had a high-profile player: Vin Baker, who played in the NBA.

Bill, I put a lot of work into the post above, which started out by comparing Cincinatti Bearcat's 7 tier system with the 4 tier system that I had been developing. Then, I realized that NCAA tournament records should be part of the definition of tiers, and worked out a mathematical/quantitative approach to come up with a method of estimating more precisely which schools are the closest to being BB blue bloods.

I was surprised when I discovered that the data on a school's number of Final AP Top 25 teams and the number of their NCAA tournament bids converged more closely than I had expected. Even more interestingly, there were some schools, such as Temple, which had a very large number (33) of NCAA appearances but only 8 Final AP Top 25 finishes. Only the top tiers of schools maintained anything approaching an equivalence between NCAA appearances and top 25 finishes.

I hope you'll click "quote" and respond to it, even if only briefly, so that it doesn't end up getting ignored.

Question: Does this seem like an interesting or useful way of comparing programs to estimate their strength through the years?

One thing I like about it is that it is a totally transparent approach (i.e., I have provided the details of all the data and computational methods that I used in the post so that others can replicate it and see if they get the same results do their own calculations on other teams, or use it to gauge improvements or adverse changes in the history of each team.

It would be fun to get into a conversation with some people who share interests in these kinds of things, so that maybe we might be able to come up with something even more precise and well informed by data.

It may be too quantitative to interest some readers, and if it's too data intense for your tastes, I hope you might mention it to some other CBB fans who might appreciate that sort of thing.

When I wrote it, part of my hope was to give you some food for thought so that we could kick some of these hypotheses around online and get some feedback from other readers.

Thanks. BTW, I think you're one of the most positive, respectful, and genuine readers and posters. People like you are why I keep posting on CSNBBS.
03-woohoo01-ncaabbs05-hide04-bolt
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2020 09:55 AM by jedclampett.)
09-15-2020 09:22 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #49
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 08:40 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:22 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:15 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:05 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I actually did this about 5 years ago in a lot of detail. 7 tiers. Here are the first 3 tiers.

If I was doing it again, I'd probably make a few changes (such as moving Virginia up 2 tiers to bottom of Tier 2, moving Wichita and San Diego State up to 3rd tier and dropping Temple and UNLV down to 4th tier).

Top tier:
North Carolina
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Duke

Top tier, but not a notch below:
Michigan State
Connecticut
Louisville
Michigan State
Syracuse

2nd tier:
Georgetown
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Villanova
(middle of 2nd tier)
Arizona
Cincinnati
Illinois
(bottom of 2nd tier)
Arkansas
Marquette
Maryland
NC State
Florida

3rd tier
(top of 3rd tier)
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Louisiana State
West Virginia
(middle of 3rd tier)
Michigan
Nevada - Las Vegas
Oklahoma
Purdue
Texas
Utah
Wisconsin
(bottom of 3rd tier)
Arizona State
Boston College
Brigham Young
Butler
California
Creighton
Gonzaga
Hartford
Iowa State
Memphis
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
St. John's
Stanford
Temple
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Xavier

The next tier had 41 teams in it.

Hartford?

He almost certainly meant "Houston."

I was hoping so, if not I was prepared to lobby for our inclusion lol

Fun fact: Hartford is one of 45 schools without an NCAAT appearance.

Interesting. Did not know. Hartford once had a high-profile player: Vin Baker, who played in the NBA.

Apparently I wasn't as careful and detailed as I thought 04-cheers I did have Hartford in my Excel list, but I can't imagine why. There's a few other obvious wrong ones.

I think I actually did this about 10 years ago because Butler is still listed as Horizon League.
09-15-2020 10:50 AM
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ChrisLords Offline
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Post: #50
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-14-2020 09:33 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:42 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  NCAA % inflates schools who miss the NCAA Tournament.

Switch NCAA % with NCAA wins and you get the blueblood list you're looking for:

I
Kentucky 131
UNC 126
Duke 115
Kansas 108
UCLA 106

II
Louisville 76
Michigan St 69
Syracuse 68
Indiana 66
Villanova 65

III
Michigan 61
UConn 59
Ohio St 57
Arizona 56
Florida 50

I agree with this - this would be pretty close to my tiers as well

This is pretty much how I see it too.
09-15-2020 11:05 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #51
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 09:22 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 08:40 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:22 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:15 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Hartford?

He almost certainly meant "Houston."

I was hoping so, if not I was prepared to lobby for our inclusion lol

Fun fact: Hartford is one of 45 schools without an NCAAT appearance.

Interesting. Did not know. Hartford once had a high-profile player: Vin Baker, who played in the NBA.

Bill, I put a lot of work into the post above, which started out by comparing Cincinatti Bearcat's 7 tier system with the 4 tier system that I had been developing. Then, I realized that NCAA tournament records should be part of the definition of tiers, and worked out a mathematical/quantitative approach to come up with a method of estimating more precisely which schools are the closest to being BB blue bloods.

I was surprised when I discovered that the data on a school's number of Final AP Top 25 teams and the number of their NCAA tournament bids converged more closely than I had expected. Even more interestingly, there were some schools, such as Temple, which had a very large number (33) of NCAA appearances but only 8 Final AP Top 25 finishes. Only the top tiers of schools maintained anything approaching an equivalence between NCAA appearances and top 25 finishes.

I hope you'll click "quote" and respond to it, even if only briefly, so that it doesn't end up getting ignored.

Question: Does this seem like an interesting or useful way of comparing programs to estimate their strength through the years?

One thing I like about it is that it is a totally transparent approach (i.e., I have provided the details of all the data and computational methods that I used in the post so that others can replicate it and see if they get the same results do their own calculations on other teams, or use it to gauge improvements or adverse changes in the history of each team.

It would be fun to get into a conversation with some people who share interests in these kinds of things, so that maybe we might be able to come up with something even more precise and well informed by data.

It may be too quantitative to interest some readers, and if it's too data intense for your tastes, I hope you might mention it to some other CBB fans who might appreciate that sort of thing.

When I wrote it, part of my hope was to give you some food for thought so that we could kick some of these hypotheses around online and get some feedback from other readers.

Thanks. BTW, I think you're one of the most positive, respectful, and genuine readers and posters. People like you are why I keep posting on CSNBBS.
03-woohoo01-ncaabbs05-hide04-bolt

I think that performance is only one part of being a blue-blood. The size and commitment of your fanbase is equally important.

That's why a school like Western Kentucky or Bradley wouldn't be in the 3rd tier despite great achievements in the past. They only average about 5,000 fans per game in most years.

It's also why schools like Creighton, Dayton, Nebraska, and Tennessee (and a lot of SEC schools, really) should be ranked higher than their historical achievements would indicate.

It's also why Indiana is definitely a step above conference rivals like Michigan State or Illinois. According to Wall Street Journal, Indiana is the 5th most valuable basketball program, worth 60% more than #11 Illinois and more than double #20 MSU.
09-15-2020 11:21 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #52
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 11:05 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:33 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:42 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  NCAA % inflates schools who miss the NCAA Tournament.

Switch NCAA % with NCAA wins and you get the blueblood list you're looking for:

I
Kentucky 131
UNC 126
Duke 115
Kansas 108
UCLA 106

II
Louisville 76
Michigan St 69
Syracuse 68
Indiana 66
Villanova 65

III
Michigan 61
UConn 59
Ohio St 57
Arizona 56
Florida 50

I agree with this - this would be pretty close to my tiers as well

This is pretty much how I see it too.

I like this list because it includes past achievements back to the 1940s, but gives higher weight to post-1980s when the tournament expanded.

However, I think this list should remove wins that were forfeited for cheating.

So Louisville (11 vacated wins), Ohio State (6 vacated), Michigan (6 vacated). Syracuse & Villanova would lose 4 each, and Syracuse & Kentucky & UConn would also lose a couple. Memphis (14 vacated) would be hurt the most, dropping from 34 wins to 20 wins.
09-15-2020 11:49 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #53
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 11:21 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 09:22 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 08:40 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:22 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  He almost certainly meant "Houston."

I was hoping so, if not I was prepared to lobby for our inclusion lol

Fun fact: Hartford is one of 45 schools without an NCAAT appearance.

Interesting. Did not know. Hartford once had a high-profile player: Vin Baker, who played in the NBA.

Bill, I put a lot of work into the post above, which started out by comparing Cincinatti Bearcat's 7 tier system with the 4 tier system that I had been developing. Then, I realized that NCAA tournament records should be part of the definition of tiers, and worked out a mathematical/quantitative approach to come up with a method of estimating more precisely which schools are the closest to being BB blue bloods.

I was surprised when I discovered that the data on a school's number of Final AP Top 25 teams and the number of their NCAA tournament bids converged more closely than I had expected. Even more interestingly, there were some schools, such as Temple, which had a very large number (33) of NCAA appearances but only 8 Final AP Top 25 finishes. Only the top tiers of schools maintained anything approaching an equivalence between NCAA appearances and top 25 finishes.

I hope you'll click "quote" and respond to it, even if only briefly, so that it doesn't end up getting ignored.

Question: Does this seem like an interesting or useful way of comparing programs to estimate their strength through the years?

One thing I like about it is that it is a totally transparent approach (i.e., I have provided the details of all the data and computational methods that I used in the post so that others can replicate it and see if they get the same results do their own calculations on other teams, or use it to gauge improvements or adverse changes in the history of each team.

It would be fun to get into a conversation with some people who share interests in these kinds of things, so that maybe we might be able to come up with something even more precise and well informed by data.

It may be too quantitative to interest some readers, and if it's too data intense for your tastes, I hope you might mention it to some other CBB fans who might appreciate that sort of thing.

When I wrote it, part of my hope was to give you some food for thought so that we could kick some of these hypotheses around online and get some feedback from other readers.

Thanks. BTW, I think you're one of the most positive, respectful, and genuine readers and posters. People like you are why I keep posting on CSNBBS.
03-woohoo01-ncaabbs05-hide04-bolt

I think that performance is only one part of being a blue-blood. The size and commitment of your fanbase is equally important.

That's why a school like Western Kentucky or Bradley wouldn't be in the 3rd tier despite great achievements in the past. They only average about 5,000 fans per game in most years.

It's also why schools like Creighton, Dayton, Nebraska, and Tennessee (and a lot of SEC schools, really) should be ranked higher than their historical achievements would indicate.

It's also why Indiana is definitely a step above conference rivals like Michigan State or Illinois. According to Wall Street Journal, Indiana is the 5th most valuable basketball program, worth 60% more than #11 Illinois and more than double #20 MSU.

Well, I genui-iiii-nely appreciate youra'ha response! (he said in his best New Orleans/Foghorn-Leghorn accent), and that I guar-un-tee!

HowEVAHh'ahuh'ahuh, as all-anda-'ya'lll can see by now, Ah'm tryin' to quantify these variables, and Ah'm havin'jist a weeee'bito'diffi-cul-ty figurin' out how'ta make an equation out of statements such as "Indiana is the 5th most valuable program" (what ah'mean is this - - in what kindda respect do mean, ah you talkin' 'bout oh'' you'all mean in dollahs and cents o'h in some kind'a "ineeefable" "nostalgic value?")

I happen to know some MSU fans rathuuuhrh'a'well, and they'd be mighty likely to take umbrarhraaggeee (!) at the ide'ahhh - -'ah mean'ahaahhh - that Indianuhh(damnHuuuzhhzha's) is, to use yo'ha language, woohuhuhu'y'all'uu\rurtthh "MORE THAN DOUBLE BLEEPING MSU!"

.....an'denn(!!) ya'll'gowwohn'undy'insultmahHILLTOPPAH'S's,ontop'fitalll!

GREAT''''GOD'AOH'MAHGHTY!

Whahyhhh, you scurrrulous varrrmunt!

...................................................................03-rotfl

....and fuhrtha'ra'mohr'rha (dingit!!) y'a numbskull'ya'bie shoootin' from the hip, indeeeeed (!) if you t'ink ya' cun convince me with yoh'ha sweet-talking conniiiivin' wohads 'bout oh toooo th' fect thattt: "Creighton, Dayton, Nebraska, and Tennessee (and a lot of SEC schools, really) should be ranked higher than their historical achievements would indicate."

We'lll, ah mean, and not'ta'insult'yo'telligence'oh'nothin'lak'dat, but what the h*e'l*ll(and, mah'maw~taughhgtme not to sweahr o'nhothin', but ah' mean, lawd ha'mehhrrhhcyyy!,you realllyie 'spect me to 'bleive that?
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2020 12:26 PM by jedclampett.)
09-15-2020 12:02 PM
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cuseroc Offline
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Post: #54
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 11:49 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 11:05 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:33 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:42 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  NCAA % inflates schools who miss the NCAA Tournament.

Switch NCAA % with NCAA wins and you get the blueblood list you're looking for:

I
Kentucky 131
UNC 126
Duke 115
Kansas 108
UCLA 106

II
Louisville 76
Michigan St 69
Syracuse 68
Indiana 66
Villanova 65

III
Michigan 61
UConn 59
Ohio St 57
Arizona 56
Florida 50

I agree with this - this would be pretty close to my tiers as well

This is pretty much how I see it too.

I like this list because it includes past achievements back to the 1940s, but gives higher weight to post-1980s when the tournament expanded.

However, I think this list should remove wins that were forfeited for cheating.

So Louisville (11 vacated wins), Ohio State (6 vacated), Michigan (6 vacated). Syracuse & Villanova would lose 4 each, and Syracuse & Kentucky & UConn would also lose a couple. Memphis (14 vacated) would be hurt the most, dropping from 34 wins to 20 wins.

The NCAA has already removed the wins that were forfeited. So if these numbers were taken from the NCAA stats, they would already represent forfeited wins. Why would you want to take away additional wins?
09-15-2020 12:06 PM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #55
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 11:49 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 11:05 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:33 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:42 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  NCAA % inflates schools who miss the NCAA Tournament.

Switch NCAA % with NCAA wins and you get the blueblood list you're looking for:

I
Kentucky 131
UNC 126
Duke 115
Kansas 108
UCLA 106

II
Louisville 76
Michigan St 69
Syracuse 68
Indiana 66
Villanova 65

III
Michigan 61
UConn 59
Ohio St 57
Arizona 56
Florida 50

I agree with this - this would be pretty close to my tiers as well

This is pretty much how I see it too.

I like this list because it includes past achievements back to the 1940s, but gives higher weight to post-1980s when the tournament expanded.

However, I think this list should remove wins that were forfeited for cheating.

So Louisville (11 vacated wins), Ohio State (6 vacated), Michigan (6 vacated). Syracuse & Villanova would lose 4 each, and Syracuse & Kentucky & UConn would also lose a couple. Memphis (14 vacated) would be hurt the most, dropping from 34 wins to 20 wins.

I think that ignores actual success. You are pretending those things didn't happen. I think vacated wins is the dumbest penalty. Vacated titles, yes-UNC should have lost a couple, but not vacated wins.
09-15-2020 12:20 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #56
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 09:22 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 08:40 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:22 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 07:15 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Hartford?

He almost certainly meant "Houston."

I was hoping so, if not I was prepared to lobby for our inclusion lol

Fun fact: Hartford is one of 45 schools without an NCAAT appearance.

Interesting. Did not know. Hartford once had a high-profile player: Vin Baker, who played in the NBA.

Bill, I put a lot of work into the post above, which started out by comparing Cincinatti Bearcat's 7 tier system with the 4 tier system that I had been developing. Then, I realized that NCAA tournament records should be part of the definition of tiers, and worked out a mathematical/quantitative approach to come up with a method of estimating more precisely which schools are the closest to being BB blue bloods.

I was surprised when I discovered that the data on a school's number of Final AP Top 25 teams and the number of their NCAA tournament bids converged more closely than I had expected. Even more interestingly, there were some schools, such as Temple, which had a very large number (33) of NCAA appearances but only 8 Final AP Top 25 finishes. Only the top tiers of schools maintained anything approaching an equivalence between NCAA appearances and top 25 finishes.

I hope you'll click "quote" and respond to it, even if only briefly, so that it doesn't end up getting ignored.

Question: Does this seem like an interesting or useful way of comparing programs to estimate their strength through the years?

One thing I like about it is that it is a totally transparent approach (i.e., I have provided the details of all the data and computational methods that I used in the post so that others can replicate it and see if they get the same results do their own calculations on other teams, or use it to gauge improvements or adverse changes in the history of each team.

It would be fun to get into a conversation with some people who share interests in these kinds of things, so that maybe we might be able to come up with something even more precise and well informed by data.

It may be too quantitative to interest some readers, and if it's too data intense for your tastes, I hope you might mention it to some other CBB fans who might appreciate that sort of thing.

When I wrote it, part of my hope was to give you some food for thought so that we could kick some of these hypotheses around online and get some feedback from other readers.

Thanks. BTW, I think you're one of the most positive, respectful, and genuine readers and posters. People like you are why I keep posting on CSNBBS.
03-woohoo01-ncaabbs05-hide04-bolt



Some very kind words, Jed. I try to be positive and respectful, but sometimes find myself using a somewhat dismissive and arrogant tone.

You do a fantastic job with all your posts. I tremendously admire your passion for AAC sports and the detail you put into your posts.

I'll take a look at what you have posted and provide some feedback by the end of the day.
09-15-2020 12:26 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #57
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 11:21 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 09:22 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 08:40 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:22 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  He almost certainly meant "Houston."

I was hoping so, if not I was prepared to lobby for our inclusion lol

Fun fact: Hartford is one of 45 schools without an NCAAT appearance.

Interesting. Did not know. Hartford once had a high-profile player: Vin Baker, who played in the NBA.

Bill, I put a lot of work into the post above, which started out by comparing Cincinatti Bearcat's 7 tier system with the 4 tier system that I had been developing. Then, I realized that NCAA tournament records should be part of the definition of tiers, and worked out a mathematical/quantitative approach to come up with a method of estimating more precisely which schools are the closest to being BB blue bloods.

I was surprised when I discovered that the data on a school's number of Final AP Top 25 teams and the number of their NCAA tournament bids converged more closely than I had expected. Even more interestingly, there were some schools, such as Temple, which had a very large number (33) of NCAA appearances but only 8 Final AP Top 25 finishes. Only the top tiers of schools maintained anything approaching an equivalence between NCAA appearances and top 25 finishes.

I hope you'll click "quote" and respond to it, even if only briefly, so that it doesn't end up getting ignored.

Question: Does this seem like an interesting or useful way of comparing programs to estimate their strength through the years?

One thing I like about it is that it is a totally transparent approach (i.e., I have provided the details of all the data and computational methods that I used in the post so that others can replicate it and see if they get the same results do their own calculations on other teams, or use it to gauge improvements or adverse changes in the history of each team.

It would be fun to get into a conversation with some people who share interests in these kinds of things, so that maybe we might be able to come up with something even more precise and well informed by data.

It may be too quantitative to interest some readers, and if it's too data intense for your tastes, I hope you might mention it to some other CBB fans who might appreciate that sort of thing.

When I wrote it, part of my hope was to give you some food for thought so that we could kick some of these hypotheses around online and get some feedback from other readers.

Thanks. BTW, I think you're one of the most positive, respectful, and genuine readers and posters. People like you are why I keep posting on CSNBBS.
03-woohoo01-ncaabbs05-hide04-bolt

I think that performance is only one part of being a blue-blood. The size and commitment of your fanbase is equally important.

That's why a school like Western Kentucky or Bradley wouldn't be in the 3rd tier despite great achievements in the past. They only average about 5,000 fans per game in most years.

It's also why schools like Creighton, Dayton, Nebraska, and Tennessee (and a lot of SEC schools, really) should be ranked higher than their historical achievements would indicate.

It's also why Indiana is definitely a step above conference rivals like Michigan State or Illinois. According to Wall Street Journal, Indiana is the 5th most valuable basketball program, worth 60% more than #11 Illinois and more than double #20 MSU.

As a fan of Indiana and Memphis ... the value via the fanbase is huge.
09-15-2020 12:28 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #58
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 12:06 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 11:49 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 11:05 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:33 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:42 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  NCAA % inflates schools who miss the NCAA Tournament.

Switch NCAA % with NCAA wins and you get the blueblood list you're looking for:

I
Kentucky 131
UNC 126
Duke 115
Kansas 108
UCLA 106

II
Louisville 76
Michigan St 69
Syracuse 68
Indiana 66
Villanova 65

III
Michigan 61
UConn 59
Ohio St 57
Arizona 56
Florida 50

I agree with this - this would be pretty close to my tiers as well

This is pretty much how I see it too.

I like this list because it includes past achievements back to the 1940s, but gives higher weight to post-1980s when the tournament expanded.

However, I think this list should remove wins that were forfeited for cheating.

So Louisville (11 vacated wins), Ohio State (6 vacated), Michigan (6 vacated). Syracuse & Villanova would lose 4 each, and Syracuse & Kentucky & UConn would also lose a couple. Memphis (14 vacated) would be hurt the most, dropping from 34 wins to 20 wins.

The NCAA has already removed the wins that were forfeited. So if these numbers were taken from the NCAA stats, they would already represent forfeited wins. Why would you want to take away additional wins?

I agree that they shouldn't be double-penalized. But the list cited above is from wikipedia, and it counts all wins (including those that were forfeited).
09-15-2020 12:34 PM
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Carolina_Low_Country Offline
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Post: #59
RE: College Basketball Tiers
I would consider the following big time basketball programs (i.e. their games are fun to watch, have a great fan base, and always going to be some what competitive)

Arizona
Butler
Cincinnati
Creighton
Dayton
Duke
Florida
Georgetown
Gonzaga
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Memphis
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
NC State
Ohio State
Pitt
San Diego State
Syracuse
UCLA
UConn
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Xavier

I would say Florida State, Baylor, Houston, BYU, VCU, and Wichita State are getting close to that point now in basketball as well.
09-15-2020 12:38 PM
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Location: IL & Cincinnati, USA
Post: #60
RE: College Basketball Tiers
(09-15-2020 12:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 11:49 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 11:05 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 09:33 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 08:42 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  NCAA % inflates schools who miss the NCAA Tournament.

Switch NCAA % with NCAA wins and you get the blueblood list you're looking for:

I
Kentucky 131
UNC 126
Duke 115
Kansas 108
UCLA 106

II
Louisville 76
Michigan St 69
Syracuse 68
Indiana 66
Villanova 65

III
Michigan 61
UConn 59
Ohio St 57
Arizona 56
Florida 50

I agree with this - this would be pretty close to my tiers as well

This is pretty much how I see it too.

I like this list because it includes past achievements back to the 1940s, but gives higher weight to post-1980s when the tournament expanded.

However, I think this list should remove wins that were forfeited for cheating.

So Louisville (11 vacated wins), Ohio State (6 vacated), Michigan (6 vacated). Syracuse & Villanova would lose 4 each, and Syracuse & Kentucky & UConn would also lose a couple. Memphis (14 vacated) would be hurt the most, dropping from 34 wins to 20 wins.

I think that ignores actual success. You are pretending those things didn't happen. I think vacated wins is the dumbest penalty. Vacated titles, yes-UNC should have lost a couple, but not vacated wins.


I disagree. For example, the Fab Five won 5 games in the NCAA tournament. But both Michigan and the NCAA both say that the Fab Five were not University of Michigan student-athletes.

So I agree that Chris Weber can boast about winning 5 NCAA tournament games. But the University of Michigan can't claim those wins because Chris Weber was not representing Michigan.
09-15-2020 12:43 PM
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